S I L V E R R E P O R T MAY-JUNE ‘12
A monthly newsletter on Silver
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CONTENTS Technical Analysis (M.A., PIVOTS, FIBO)
MCX SILVER View Comex SILVER view Latest Updates
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TECHNICAL VIEW SILVER Moving averages Moving Averages
21 Day
55 Day
100 Day
200 Day
Daily Weekly
54400 55700
55250 54250
55650 49700
55550 41300
Fibonacci retracement levels (Weekly) SCRIPT
0.0%
23.6%
38.2%
50.0%
61.8%
100.0%
SILVER
45825
50800
53900
56350
58900
66890
Weekly Pivot SCRIPT
R4
R3
R2
R1
P
S1
S2
S3
S4
SILVER
64150
60600
57050
55800
55500
52270
49960
46400
42850
Monthly Pivot SCRIPT
R4
R3
R2
R1
P
S1
S2
S3
S4
SILVER
66050
62670
59300
57400
55900
53600
52520
49100
45700
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MONTHLY ANALYSIS :MCX SILVER CHART
MCX Silver is following a downward rally since March 2012. In the first week of March it gave a false break out above 58300 (See above chart) and then it could not able to sustain above this level and prices declines to 51200 in 10 weeks. In the previous week a sharp recovery has seen from its support zone of 49000 to 51000. It gained nearly Rs.3000/Kg in one week. A sharp decline in Rupee vs. Dollar has also supported silver prices. We can expect a bullish trend in silver in the upcoming week because of the following reasons:-
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As we can see the weekly chart of MCX Silver, it has given previous week closing near 54500 which is 3000 points up of its weekly low and thus formed a strong bullish hammer near its strong support zone. It is a signal of reversal of downtrend and an uptrend is expected if prices breached near resistance of 55500. Silver is moving below the trend line since first week of April. It has violated this trend line once and declined sharply. Now Silver is again trading near this trend line with the support of hammer. A bunch of weekly resistances near 54500 is a hurdle in up rally. If silver breach the resistance zone the next target is 58300.
COMEX SILVER CHART
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On weekly chart of Comex (see above chart) Silver is trading in a bearish trend and near its support zone of $26. Silver dropped to as low as 26.73 last week but formed a short term bottom there, ahead of 26.145 supports and rebounded. Initial bias is mildly on the upside this week for further rise. Though, below 27.78 will minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 26.73 and then 26.145.
A downward internal trend line from March 2011 is also a strong support for Silver. It observed a strong recovery in May 2011 then in October 2011 and now again touched this trend line in the previous week. Also 200 day Exponential Moving Average also holds prices above $26. In the long term picture, the main question remains on whether 49.82 is a medium term or long term top. Current development is favoring the latter case. In the midterm if it breach and sustains above $29.80 then prices may touch $35.70. Though, break of $30 psychological level will raise the chance of one more rising leg before consolidation from 26.15 completes.
OVERVIEW Silver is expected to rise in MCX in the upcoming weeks. But if we look at the Comex Chart it is looking slightly bearish because dollar index gained nearly 1% in the previous week. A strong weekly closing will leads to a sharp recovery in Silver prices. On a broader View Silver has a strong fundamental and thus we cannot expect a sharp decline from this level. If even it breaks its support fresh buying at lower levels will hold the prices. And if it breaks the latter resistance of 58300 with high volume then target is 63000.
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Latest Updates May 23rd Silver futures seen subdued on strong dollar, but weak rupee prevents sharp fall Earlier in the year, analysts tracking silver futures predicted a declining trend in the underlying. But the rupee's slide against the dollar has prevented a sharp fall in prices. Silver prices have declined in the international market mainly due to dollar strengthening against major currencies and slide in prices of base metals as well as gold
May 21st Silver's Rally Will Look to Continue in 2012 as China Begins Trading Silver Futures After falling for multiple trading sessions’ silver prices rallied sharply Thursday and provided a great boost for silver companies. The Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) jumped 2.62 percent Thursday -- nearly matching the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) gain of 3.30 percent. Silver's rally will look to continue on the emergence of Chinese Silver futures and increased fabrication demand. The Paragon Report examines investing opportunities in the Silver Industry and provides equity research on Silver corp. Metals Inc. (SVM),(SVM.TO) and Great Panther Silver Ltd. (GPL).
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Apr 30th Silver import in Gujarat jumps by 194% in 2011-12 According to new decree in Vietnam activities that will be prohibited, using gold as a medium of exchange, manufacturing gold jewelry without a license from the central bank, trading Gold Bullion without a license, and doing any other gold related business without the prime minister and central bank's approval.
Apr 19th Physical Silver Investment Saw "Massive" Growth Last Year Physical silver bar investment grew by a massive 67% in 2011 to 95.7 million ounces [2976.6 tonnes]," the 'World Silver Survey 2012' says. The World Silver Survey is published by the Silver Institute and based on figures from leading precious metals research consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS. "China accounted for a near 60 percent rise in its bullion coin output last year," the Survey says.
Apr 10th India Silver Bullion Imports "To Drop by 27%" Imports of Silver Bullion by India could fall by up to 27% this year as a result of volatile Silver Prices, the head of India's largest bullion importer said this week. India is likely to import between 3500 and 4000 tones of Silver Bullion in 2012 – compared to 4800 tons last year – says Sunil Kashyap, head of Asia at bullion bank Scotia Mocatta. Import taxes increase the cost of metal to the final consumer," he said, "and so the higher price may dampen demand for 2012."
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