SIX FUTURE MOBILITY TRENDS FROM IDTECHEX RESEARCH
Since the turn of the century, electric vehicle startups have moved from obscurity into some of the world’s most valuable companies. Most traditional automakers have committed to an electric future and flying electric taxis have started to leave the pages of science fiction. So, where to from here? The rapid pace of change is enabled by technological leaps in underlying componentry and materials, from Li-ion batteries to LiDAR. But there is still a long way to go as the industry strives to close the performance gap with internal combustion engines, increases in safety, lower costs, and overcoming regulatory barriers. Here are six future mobility trends worth watching.
Electrification is global and happening in all sectors A decade ago, IDTechEx predicted 1.5 million battery-electric car sales by 2021. This turned out to be an underestimate by over half, as China, the US and Europe all grew their markets last year. The sheer volumes and successes of electric vehicles in the automotive market are driving down costs and creating opportunities for many other mobility sectors. On the waterways, electric ferry deliveries have boomed to ~80MWh yearly as battery pack costs fell below $600 per kWh, energy densities improved and thermal management innovations vastly increased safety. Similar drivers are pushing investment into electric air-taxis, with American Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, United Airlines, UPS and Avolon having all placed preorders. Electrification is not so much unstoppable as inevitable and will continue to play a dominant role in the decarbonisation of mobility.
Autonomous vehicles will transform the automotive industry – again Just as the industry grapples with massive changes in powertrain technology, IDTechEx expects commercial autonomous cars -or robotaxis- to be market-ready and match or exceed human safety by as early as 2024. Projecting forward current safety data, the implication is autonomous cars will be capable of fulfilling the world’s mobility needs without a single collision before 2050.
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As a result, autonomy will have a profound impact on the travel habits of consumers: having removed the highest cost of current popular ride-hailing services – the driver – robotaxis will enable affordable mobility services, driving the market to grow at a 30% CAGR. Private car ownership will become a relic of the past for new generations, and since one autonomous car has the capability to serve multiple people a day, fundamental demand for new cars is expected to fall, even as global passenger-miles increase.
Lithium-based batteries will continue to be the great enabler for electrification Without the popularisation of the Li-ion battery by Sony in the 1990s, electric vehicles would still be the horse that lost the race to the internal combustion engine. Battery technologies are evolving rapidly and there are many important market developments taking place. As battery costs level, the key focus for the industry will be increasing sustainability of raw materials and supply chains whilst ensuring there is still enough supply to meet the huge demand. Later in the decade, a move beyond Li-ion, towards the holy grail of solid-state and lithium-metal batteries, is critical for a step-change in safety and performance, and to open the door to new applications such as electric longhaul aircraft.
Advanced motors and power electronics are key to lowering cost and increasing range Improving the efficiency of power electronics and electric traction motors is key to either increasing range or downsizing batteries (reducing costs). Two important trends in these areas are market convergence on permanent magnet motors and a transition towards wide bandgap semiconductor devices. Due to their high performance and superior efficiency, permanent magnet motors are the default technology for traction applications and their market has naturally grown with the runaway success of electric cars. However, magnets make end-of-life recycling difficult and raise concerns regarding price volatility and sustainable mining practices, with most material mined and sourced in China. Long-term reliance solely on permanent magnet machines is looking increasingly unsustainable, with warning signs starting to
