What you need to know now in preparation for 2030 2030 may seem like a long way off, but its important to start preparing your business now, in plenty of time for the future. We’ve been revisiting McKinsey & Co’s Making every part count report and PwC’s presentation, ‘The Impact of Electrification & Automated Technology on the Automotive Aftermarket’ at the 2021 AASA Vision Conference to get every last drop of insight to help you prepare for the aforementioned future. From new vehicles to different parts and new ways of owning and using cars, 2030 is shaping up to be a very different industry in comparison to today. Here’s what McKinsey & Co, and PwC say to expect in 2030.
What do the dollar figures look like? In 2019 the global aftermarket industry was valued at USD $463 billion. In positive news, the aftermarket industry is projected to grow at 3.5% per annum as we reach 2030. And whilst it is mostly positive it’s driven from a complex mix of increases and decreases. This is due to what McKinsey & Co call ‘the increasing electrification of the global car parc,’ or for us, the increasing sales of electric vehicles (EVs).
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What about the EV revolution? Surprisingly, as per McKinsey & Co, by 2030 the global car parc is 15% larger than in 2020 and has a significantly higher age. The average age of a car on the road will be 12.9 years, which is positive for us in the aftermarket as it provides potential for greater quantity and length of services, driving an increase in revenue. As Capricorn Automotive CEO, Brad Gannon mentioned, ‘as we know, as a car ages, replacement rates for different parts also increase. So, it is positive to see a higher average age of cars on the road, as this results in greater demand for parts and servicing.’ With all those new cars on the road, the make-up of the global car parc will change. By 2030, McKinsey & Co project EVs will make up between 18 – 26% of all the cars on the road. Some of this will be driven by PwC’s projections of EVs contributing to 13 – 20% of new car sales in the US.
