60 INTERNATIONAL SECTION
What will the world of air cargo look like in future? Floris de Haan Sr. researcher air transport economics Erasmus University Rotterdam
As a senior researcher in air transport economics at Erasmus University Rotterdam I am often asked for an answer to this crystal ball question: what will the world of air cargo look like in future. The easy answer to the question is “it depends…”. At the same time developments on both the demand side as well as on the supply side of air cargo become visible and can provide answers.
Cargo Magazine
I am happy to provide some considerations and developments in the air cargo industry. If we take a closer look at the influencing factors of air cargo demand, the picture is mixed. Some trends, such as e-commerce, are clearly increasing demand. Others will have a downward effect. Let’s analyse them individually and develop our own vision on the compounded effect. If we look at the demand side a trend that had started long before COVID hit the retailers, is clearly e-commerce. And increasingly the speed of delivery has become a USP of e-commerce
companies. During COVID the closing of physical shops lead to even higher growth numbers, which was beneficial for the integrator companies delivering door-to-door within 24 hours. It is expected that once we have recovered and returned to the old normal, e-commerce is ‘here to stay’ at the levels we are seeing today and higher. This will require air cargo capacity, although in some cases provided by the larger e-commerce companies themselves, such as Prime Air for Amazon. At the same time consumer behaviour and GDP are closely correlated. Which
