Carmel-by-the-Sea, Carmel Point, Greater Carmel, Carmel Valley, Pebble Beach, Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
Q1 2020 Market Report
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C ■ Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
Q1 2020 Market Report
A
fter a strong finish to 2019, Monterey Peninsula was off to a healthy Q1, 2020. The underlying fundamentals seemed to be improving until we experienced the drastic change with the Shelter-inPlace on March 17, 2020. That slow down did not dramatically affect Q1 because most sales already in escrow proceeded to close. Since then the number of new listings and escrows has dramatically slowed. While we would traditionally be looking at Q1 results as a strong indicator, at this point, all projections are off. At this time it would be irresponsible to attempt to forecast the speed of recovery. However, we do know that there are a number of key drivers at play that will put both positive and negative pressure on our real estate market. As a company, we are closely tracking all of the positive and negative drivers. We are preparing to help our clients make the most of the opportunities and are working to offset challenges wherever we can. This includes new sales tools, channels and messaging strategies targeting over a dozen key drivers, e.g., pent up demand and lower interest rates vs. higher inventories and investment portfolio pressures. Over time, like the stock market, our real estate market always delivers. We live in one of the most desirable communities in the world with limited inventory of homes. We know that together we will get through this crisis and that our market will in time return to a healthy, vibrant community with appreciating real estate values and an extraordinary quality of life.
Dolores South of Seventh â– P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â– Fax: 831.624.7338
Table of Contents
Q1 2020 Market Report
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point ���������������������������������������� 4 Greater Carmel ���������������������������������������� 6 Carmel Valley ������������������������������������������� 8 Pebble Beach ��������������������������������������������10 Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast �������������������������� 12
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
3
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
About Carmel-by-the-Sea
Q1 2020 Market Report
Average Selling Price
C
armel-by-the-sea and Carmel Point had a strong Q1. While the total number of sales was down the total sales volume was slightly ahead of the previous quarter and consistent on average with all of last year. The market strength was driven by high quality home sales. Nearly 30% of the homes sold in the quarter where $3M and over driving the average sales price in Carmel to the highest number it has been in over 5 quarters.
2020 Q1 Sales by Segment
vs Q
Sales Volume
M
vs Q
7% 23%
33%
37%
<$1M | 0 $1M-2M | 10 $2M-3M | 11 $3M-5M | 7 $5M+ | 2
Units Sold
vs Q
Days on Market*
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel-by-the-Sea & Carmel Point
Q1 2020 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales
Days on Market*
$2.8M
120
90
$2.1M 60
$1.4M 30
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Average
Median
* DOM count was suspended on March 17, 2020
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
$100M
40
$75M
30
$2.8M
$2.1M $50M
20
$1.4M $25M
10
Q1
2018
Q2
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2018
Q2
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2018 2019 2020
Q2
Q3
Q4
2018 Median 2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
5
Greater Carmel
Q1 2020 Market Report
About Greater Carmel
G
Average Selling Price
reater Carmel is considered neighborhoods of Carmel that fall outside of the Carmelby-the-Sea rectangle and Carmel Point. This area performed better than Q1 of 2019 and worse than Q4 of 2019. Of the 18 sales 11 were in the $1M-$1.6M price range. Many of these sales were larger properties at comparatively more approachable prices. Momentum seemed to be building in this area prior to the March shutdown.
6%
Sales Volume
M vs Q
<$1M | 4 $1M-2M | 11 $2M-3M | 2 $3M-5M | 1 $5M+ | 0
11%
vs Q
2020 Q1 Sales by Segment
22%
Units Sold
vs Q
61%
Days on Market*
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Greater Carmel
Q1 2020 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$1.75M
120
$1.5M
90
$1.25M
60
$1M
30
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Average Sale Price
* DOM count was suspended on March 17, 2020
Median Sale Price
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
$50M
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
30
$1.75M
$38M
$1.5M
20
$25M
$1.25M
10
$13M
$1M
Q1
2018
Q2
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2018
Q2
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
2018 2019 2020
Q3
Q4
2018 Median 2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
7
Carmel Valley
About Carmel Valley
C
Q1 2020 Market Report
Average Selling Price
armel Valley had a very strong Q1, building on an even stronger Q4 of last year. The average sale price for the quarter of $1.987M is one of the highest averages seen in years. This was driven by the sale of Fox Creek Ranch, a 275 acre ranch for $17M, along with a strong sales activity in The Preserve where there were 5 transactions in the quarter averaging just over $4.2M.
vs Q
Sales Volume
M
2020 Q1 Sales by Segment
2%
40% 14%
7%
vs Q
<$1M | 17 $1M-2M | 16 $2M-3M | 3 $3M-5M | 6 $5M+ | 1
Units Sold
vs Q
37%
Days on Market*
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel Valley
Q1 2020 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$2M
120
$1.5M
90
$1M
60
$0.5M
30
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Average
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
* DOM count was suspended on March 17, 2020
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
$100M
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$2M
80
64
$78M
$1.63M
48 $1.25M
$55M 32
$0.88M
$33M
16
Q1
2018
Q2
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
2018
Q2
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
2018 2019 2020
Q3
Q4
2018 Median 2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
9
Pebble Beach
Q1 2020 Market Report
About Pebble Beach
Average Selling Price
P
ebble Beach was coming off a very strong Q4 of 2019 with two sales over $20M just before the year ended. Comparatively, there was only one transaction in Q1 of this year over $5M and 13 of the 16 transactions were $2M or less. This is very uncharacteristic of the market, although Q1 of 2019 was also much lower than the other 3 quarters last year. There are currently 10 listings available in Pebble Beach over $10M.
13%
69%
vs Q
Sales Volume
M
2020 Q1 Sales by Segment
6% 6% 6%
vs Q
<$1M | 1 $1M-2M | 11 $2M-3M | 2 $3M-5M | 1 $5M+ | 1
Units Sold
vs Q
Days on Market*
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Pebble Beach
Q1 2020 Market Report Days on Market*
Average vs Median Sales Price
240
$4M
$3.25M
180
$2.5M
120
$1.75M
60
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Average
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Median
* DOM count was suspended on March 17, 2020
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
$160M
Closed Sales by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
50
$4.5M
40
$125M
$3.5M
30 $2.5M
$90M 20
$1.5M
$55M
10
Q1
2018
Q2
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
2018
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
2018 2019 2020
Q3
Q4
2018 Median 2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
11
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
About Carmel Highlands
T
Average Selling Price
he Big Sur, South Coast, Carmel Highlands market typically does not have enough transaction volume for data to be predictive. Q1 was off to a great start led by the sale of 3 oceanfront or big view properties, There was a total of $18M in sales volume in the quarter which nearly matched all of last yearâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s volume of $21.8M. With a number of great properties still for sale in the Highlands, Big Sur area, things were on track for a potential record-breaking year prior to the March slowdown.
25%
vs Q
Sales Volume
M
2020 Q1 Sales by Segment
25%
Q1 2020 Market Report
vs Q
<$1M | 0 $1M-2M | 1 $2M-3M | 0 $3M-5M | 1 $5M+ | 2
Units Sold
vs Q
50% Days on Market*
Dolores South of Seventh â&#x2013; P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 â&#x2013; Fax: 831.624.7338
Carmel Highlands, Big Sur & South Coast
Q1 2020 Market Report
Average vs Median Sales Price
Days on Market*
$6.5M
240
$5M
180
$3.5M
120
$2M
60
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020
Average
Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 * DOM count was suspended on March 17, 2020
Median
Closed Sales Volume by Quarter
Average vs Median Sales Price by Quarter
Closed Sales by Quarter
$30M
8
$7M
$23M
6
$5.25M
$16M
4
$3.5M
$8M
2
Q1
2018
Q2
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
$1.75M
Q1
2018
Q2
Q3
2019
Q4
2020
Q1
Q2
2018 2019 2020
Q3
Q4
2018 Median 2019 Median 2020 Median
Dolores South of Seventh ■ P.O. Drawer C Carmel-by-the-Sea, California 93921 Office: 831.622.1000 ■ Fax: 831.624.7338
13
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