Market Overview

Effected by numerous external drivers, the Monterey Peninsula Real Estate market experienced a 5.5% reduction in transactions from Q4 of 2022 and a 36% reduction from the same quarter last year. This means the market performed comparably to national figures, which is impressive considering the region experienced extremely difficult weather during much of the quarter. The storms in Q1 delivered excessive rain, wind, flooding, and power outages throughout much of the area which made it very difficult to even show property. Combined with macro-economic pressures across the real estate market, high interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty, buyers transacted at very low levels compared to previous quarters. Looking even closer, these factors specifically affected the number of high-priced discretionary sales throughout Carmel and Pebble Beach, dropping total dollar volume and average sales price much more than usual. On a positive note, with extremely tight inventory, values have held up well across the Peninsula and continue to outperform the national market.

Across the markets we track on the Monterey Peninsula, the number of units sold during Q1 2023 was down 5.5% versus an already low Q4 of 2022, and down 36% from Q1 of last year. Average sales price held in stronger, down just over 10% quarter over quarter and down 22% against Q1 2022. Total sales dollar volume in the quarter was 50% lower than Q1 2022. This percentage is skewed by eight homes selling over $10M in Q1 of 2022 (compared to two in Q1 2023), with four of those coming in over $25M. These six additional high-priced sales made up almost 40% of the total sales volume difference between Q1 2023 and Q1 2022.

Moving forward, we are beginning to see the typical rise in inventory levels that come with the late spring season as we transition into summer. As of the end of March, our brokerage has seen a spike of internal listings and the market as a whole has 17% more active listings than the same time last year. With summer weather on the way, banking and financial concerns subsiding and the potential for interest rate easing, we have already seen more homes come on the market and buyers start to return as well. We expect the second quarter to outperform Q1 and hopefully build for a stronger second half of the year.

With so much pressure and volatility affecting our market right now, it is essential to work with an experienced and informed agent. Our agents have extensive hands-on local knowledge about every market and are truly market-leading experts across the Peninsula. Moreover, they are supported by a dedicated marketing and analytics team that allows for clients to make informed decisions and to maximize value when buying or selling.

The following report breaks out five of the markets we track with additional performance detail. We hope you will find this report informative. As always, please be sure to contact us if there is anything we can do to help you, or your friends and family, with real estate plans in our marketplace.

CARMEL-BY-THE-SEA

Market Update

Although the average sales price in Carmel-by-the-Sea during Q1 2023 was shown to be down over 28% versus Q4 2022, it was right on par with Q1 2022 and 2021 as a whole, meaning prices are holding strong in the area. Just 16 sales during the quarter is the lowest we’ve seen in years, with the area typically showing over 30 sales per quarter. There was also just one sale over $5M in the quarter with 56% of the sales coming in the $3M-5M range. This lack of high-priced homes was a trend we saw in Q1 2023. Number of active listings to end the quarter rose to 27, the most since June 2022, showing promise for more sales moving forward.

$3,289,252

1.3% vs Q1 2022

$52.6M

32 22% vs Q4 2022

3.2% vs Q1 2022

By Segment

16 15.8% vs Q4 2022 vs Q1 2022