Trends Foretell Milwaukee's Future

BY BRET MAYBORNE - Director of Economic Research, MMAC

Looking back at how things have changed for Milwaukee and its business community over the past 60 years is a bit like watching your kids grow up. You don’t really notice it’s happening from day to day, but looking back over the years (and the photos!) you realize how drastic that change has been. Trends have affected the region bit by bit, slowly over time, until the change has been momentous. The overall theme of this change is diversity: diversity in our economy, our people, our geography.

Nowhere has change been more evident than in the diversity of our population. The non-white population in metro Milwaukee has gone from 5% to 24% in the 1960-2017 period. Since 1970, the Black/African American population has more than doubled, the Hispanic/Latino population has grown 677% and the Asian population has increased nearly 700%. This growth has resulted in a City population that has reached minority-majority status, and a Milwaukee County population fast approaching the same.

Change in educational levels is similarly dramatic. Believe it or not, in 1960, fewer than half of the metro population, age 25-years-old and above, had high school diplomas. In 2017, 91.6% of this group is high school educated and more than 35% have bachelor’s degrees or higher. But that number masks the disparity in education levels for African Americans and Hispanics, for which the high school graduation rates are 85% and 71%, respectively. For those earning bachelor’s degrees, the breach is wider still with African Americans at 14%, and Hispanics at 15%.

Manufacturing: deep roots, promising future

Metro Milwaukee has long held a reputation of being a manufacturing center and that is still certainly the case today, with one of the highest manufacturing percentages among major U.S. metros. Yet manufacturing was significantly more prominent in the local economy 57 years ago. Current figures indicate that 16% of those employed in the metro area work in manufacturing. In 1960, this percentage reached more than 41%. For many of those working in the machine shops and assembly lines 50 years ago, today’s manufacturing workplaces would be nearly unrecognizable with technology driving the process. More sophisticated skill requirements have led to a mismatch between available jobs and the people to fill them. It is a defining issue for the region today. But as more local manufacturers expand and new ones put down roots (Foxconn, Haribo), work is underway to better align education, workforce development and employers to meet these needs, and MMAC is at the forefront of this issue.

We need the right training programs to get workers with the skills we need.”

Todd Teske, Briggs & Stratton

Metro Milwaukee population migration

1960 vs. 2017

Moving up, out & back again

Geographically, the metro area population has dispersed. In 1960, the City of Milwaukee represented 58% of the metro population and ranked as the 11th largest city in the U.S. Declines in City population in the 1960 - 2000 period (with stability since) have led to a City ranked 31st in 2017, representing 38% of the metro population. strong gains. The Waukesha-Ozaukee- Washington counties have gone from a 19% slice of the metro area’s population in 1960, to 40% in 2017, a growth rate of 157% in this period. At the same time, the mostly legacy Milwaukee County suburbs have held steady at 23%.

This suburban population growth, while continuing, has slowed in recent decades. At the same time there has been movement back to downtown. From 1960 to 1990, the downtown population fell from 28,900 to 15,700. That trend has reversed course, with the downtown area recording double-digit gains, growing from 15,700 in 1990 to an average population of 22,700 in the 2012 to 2016 period. With announcements for additional apartments, condos and town homes in and near downtown, that number will continue to rise.

Scanning the horizon

As we begin to look at the coming decades, it’s hard to say where this all leads. With the current record low unemployment rate, it’s clear we will need to educate, train, attract and retain as many people as possible to fill the jobs we have and the ones we anticipate. Growing companies and jobs is key to a vibrant economic future, but we face a number of challenges in this regard. Much of our available workforce is currently sidelined by low levels of education, former incarcerations and an aging population. The median age of the metro area’s population has aged by over 10 years in the 1970 to 2017 period. As baby-boomers grow older, this trend is likely to continue.

In the winter edition of Milwaukee Commerce, we’ll take a closer look at the trends and prevailing issues that are anticipated to define the next 50 years for the region.

Populations of top ranking U.S. cities

Rank City

1960

1 New York

7,781,984

2 Chicago

3,550,404

3 Los Angeles

2,479,015

4 Philadelphia

2,002,512

5 Detroit

1,670,144

6 Baltimore

939,024

7 Houston

938,219

8 Cleveland

876,050

9 Washington, D.C. 763,956

10 St. Louis

750,026

11 Milwaukee

741,324

12 San Francisco

740,316

Rank City

2017

1 New York

8,622,698

2 Los Angeles

3,999,759

3 Chicago

2,716,450

4 Houston

2,312,717

5 Phoenix

1,626,078

6 Philadelphia

1,580,863

7 San Antonio

1,511,946

8 San Diego

1,419,516

9 Dallas

1,341,075

10 San Jose

1,035,317

11 Austin

950,715

12 Jacksonville

892,062

31. MILWAUKEE

595,351