The power of humility

By Ralph Weber - Founding member at Gass Weber Mullins

In the early morning hours of December 7, 1941, radar operators in Hawaii saw on their screen what proved to be Japanese planes headed to Pearl Harbor. A superior dismissed the report, deciding it was only a flight of American bombers en route from San Francisco. A generation later in December 1963, Lyndon Johnson decided he could not be called the President who “lost Vietnam,” so plans for withdrawing American troops were shelved. After another generation, President Bush’s decision in 2003 to invade Iraq led to incalculable, continuing losses. And the list goes on.

Despite years of warnings about pandemics and their catastrophic consequences, our most senior leaders played down the risks of COVID-19 to public health. As Dr. Anthony Fauci told Jake Tapper about events in January and February, “there was a lot of pushback about shutting things down back then.” We’re now waiting to see how this plays out.

So why do smart people make terrible decisions? Dr. Robert Burton’s 2008 book captures the problem in its title: ON BEING CERTAIN – Believing You Are Right Even When You’re Not. Burton describes how processes distinct from reason create a feeling of certainty. The feeling makes it difficult to let go of opinions, even in the face of compelling contradictory evidence. You can recognize this trait in people about whom it can be said: not always right, but never in doubt. Daniel Kahneman’s 2011 best seller, THINKING, FAST AND SLOW, explains how shortcuts in thinking, “heuristics,” lead us astray.The “affect” heuristic, for example, avoids the mental work needed to answer a difficult question by substituting instead the simpler query, “do I like this?” Melding the two authors’ works together, a decisionmaker faced with a tough choice might ask himself, “does this answer make me feel good?” That is not how we would like to believe our leaders make decisions.

A better way is found through embracing one of the virtues, namely humility. Humility brings to the forefront of decision-making the idea that you might be wrong. This enables -- indeed it requires -- one to consider a broad range of possibilities versus just the choice that feels good. The renowned Federal Judge Learned Hand urged that advice from centuries before, “think that ye may mistaken,” be inscribed as a reminder on schools, churches, court houses and every legislature.

Trial lawyers study the past and explain events through stories. Imagine if our senior leaders had asked themselves in January and February, “but what if we are wrong?” Many pandemic war games would have given the answer, and it should have been understood as terrifying. Embracing humility could have changed the course of today’s events, just as it would have in 1941, 1963 and 2003. So, when making key decisions, keep Judge Hand's admonition in mind: “think that ye may be mistaken.”