PUBLIC SERVICE REFORM: REBALANCING and RENEWAL The case for proportionality in achieving citizen-focused quality public services. Catherine Murphy T.D.
A Position on Public Sector Reform
REBALANCING and RENEWAL THE CASE FOR PROPORTIONALITY IN ACHIEVING CITIZEN-FOCUSED QUALITY PUBLIC SERVICES A Position on Public Sector Reform - CATHERINE MURPHY T.D. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In this position paper I seek to establish a clear case for reform of the manner in which the State distributes exchequer funding to public services by demonstrating, through three select examples, that the current distribution pattern disproportionately favours areas with historically significant population levels rather than areas with current and projected highgrowth patterns.
INTRODUCTION Having seen the lofty heights reached by Ireland Inc. recent decades, there is no doubt of our ability to innovate for the achievement of pronounced financial and social success. Regrettably, the people of Ireland are now becoming all too familiar with the ill-effects of our failure to build a more sustainable model of success - but, if the harsh lessons of the recently catastrophic economic meltdown are to yield any positive result, this moment in our history must be seized upon to break free from the traditional pit-falls and strike for a truly revolutionary approach to public administration. Given the prolonged period of austerity we are living through, it is no longer good enough to herald blunt surface-level cuts such as public sector recruitment moratoriums, pay-reductions and education cutbacks as viable solutions to the current crisis facing the public purse. Such blanket cutting fails outright to address the real reasons as to why our public sector is at such an extreme level of unequal delivery. A full system overhaul is demanded if we are to eliminate the pervasively institutionalised inequalities and inefficiencies endemic to the current system of public administration. Indeed, it’s essential that we ask ourselves that, in the absence of high-level institutional reform, how can public sector employees be facilitated in striving for cost-effectiveness if the inherent inefficiencies of the sector are not addressed.
It’s clear that this is a far easier assertion to make than to realise – what I propose is not a quickfix and nor is it intended to be. Truly reshaping what our public sector is and who it is focused at serving is a job that will require time. However, if done correctly, it can yield lasting results that will serve as a strong foundation on which the future of our State can be securely built.
THE PRESENT DILEMMA
The population of Ireland continues to grow1 and the country’s economic performance shows promise of recovery but overall remains still poor; thus we face insufficient tax yields as compared to public expenditure2. Public sector employment levels are in decline due in large part to the moratorium on recruitment and promotions and continued levels of “natural wastage” but these levels are across the board and not in any way targeted leading to resource inequities throughout the system3. Public sector funding reductions are set to continue in line with the State’s commitments under the EU/IMF Programme for Ireland and with these reductions comes restraint on the operational capabilities of this sector 4; furthermore, with growing levels of dependency on social welfare due to a consistently shrinking, or at best stagnant labour force, pressure on publically funded services is on the rise5. With problems as multifaceted as these, it is simply unrealistic to think that funding and staffing cuts will achieve the required range of savings without having a detrimental effect on policing, schooling, healthcare and public services generally. Crucially, it is the absence of nuanced and detailed demographic considerations in implementing savings which will ultimately cause most damage in terms of the rollback of essential public services. Now is the time to consider what levels of service are required by our growing population and to adopt a creative approach to achieving that aim.
HISTORIC ENTRENCHMENT TRUMPS FORWARD-LOOKING IDEALS If we look at the manner in which public resources and funding are distributed throughout the State from one Local Authority to another, the level of imbalance concerned is clear to see. Indeed our local authority and county structure can, for the purposes of analysis, provide an interesting set of microcosms that display the class of imbalance that exists throughout our national structures. These microcosms highlight the very worrying tendency among Government Departments to work on historic trends of demand as opposed to projections of future growth or decline when planning services. Thus, our public sector institutions plan for the past as opposed to the future and we receive an equally backward overall result. 1
(Central Statistics Office Ireland, 2011) (Department of Finance, 2011) 3 (Department of Finance, 2009) 4 (Department of Finance, 2010) 5 (The Central Statistics Office Ireland, 2011) 2
Counties such as Kildare, Meath, Louth and Wicklow, which have seen rapid population growth due in large part to their location within the expansive hinterland of Dublin City, have not been on the receiving end of resources nor funding that is in line with their persistent levels of growth6. These counties illustrate thoroughly the lack of responsiveness in the overall culture of our current system of public administration to departures from historic population trends and, in analysing various levels of funding and resource provision against population levels, clear examples of systemic deficiencies emerge.
6
(Department of Environment, Community and Local Government, 2010)
POPULATION GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS
ESTABLISHED GROWTH TRENDS
While the level of population growth and increase in residential property construction seen over the past two decades undoubtedly made a dramatic impact on Irish society, many of those counties that experienced very conspicuous levels of growth during the Celtic Tiger boom era were simply experiencing highly pronounced versions of existing growth patterns as opposed to newly emerging trends. Indeed, it may further be suggested that had these growth trends been heeded the prospect of futher overspill into even more peripheral counties could have been predicted and prevented. The Irish pattern of population growth displays a worryingly simple trend linked heavily with the principles of supply and demand. During times of population growth, Irish cities have become oversubscribed and, as a result, unaffordable to many. Thus those seeking out a supply of more abundant and therefore affordable accommodation have migrated to the areas immediately surrounding these cities. Over time, the same problem of ever-reducing supply coupled with continually increased demand has forced migrations to locations even further afield from our cities. This trend is therefore more accurately termed a population splurge than a population surge.
% Change 1981 to 1991 40.00%
% Change 1991 - 2002
30.00%
% Change 2002 - 2011
20.00% 10.00%
Kildare
Meath
Laois
Wicklow
Wexford
Galway
Louth
Westmeath
-10.00%
Mayo Leitrim Roscommon Tipperary Sligo Kerry Monaghan Limerick Longford Dublin Waterford Donegal Cork Offaly Clare Kilkenny Cavan Carlow
0.00%
KILDARE – THE CONSISTENT GROWTH MODEL
Kildare is a county that has experienced demonstrably persistent and yet also rapid population growth since the early 1970s. According to CSO figures7, the population of this county rested somewhat steadily between a maximum of 83,614 persons in 1871 and a minimum of 57,892 persons in 1936. Never in the space of a century did the population of this county rise above levels reached in 1871, and yet once the historic upper-levels of population were breached a new growth pattern took effect which has seen a population increase of 192%, or137,978 persons, over the course of only four decades. Population growth in Kildare throughout the latter half of the 21 st Century has therefore been both consistent and predictable and it has represented a marked contrast to the low and negative levels of growth in seen in the neighbouring Dublin City. Kildare’s growth can largely be attributed to population overspill from a city that has been typified by low density urban development and a laissez faire appraoch to urban planning that allowed a prohibitively priced property market to emerge, thereby forcing many would-be city dwellers outward towards the surrounding “dormitory counties”8. With such an established trend of urban population overspill, it stands to reason that continued population increase in the absence of any significant policy change would lead to more of the same.
209955
2011 2002 1991 1981 1971 1961 1951 1946 1936 1926 1911 1901 1891 1881 1871 0
163944 122656
104122 71977 64420 66437 64849 57892 58028 66627 63566 70206 75804 83614
50000
100000 Kildare Population
7 8
(Central Statistics Office Ireland, 1982, 1992, 2003, 2011) census 1991
150000 Census Year
200000
250000
LAOIS – THE PREDICTABLE LATE ARRIVAL
With a population surge of 20% between 2006 and 20119, County Laois clearly demonstrates the outer limits reached by those seeking property within a commutable distance to Dublin during the final phase of Celtic Tiger-led population dispersal. Unsurprisingly, with figures such as this Laois emerges as Ireland’s most rapidly growing county. Alas, this growth brings with it the ominous honour of having an equally high-ranking level of unoccupied and or incomplete dwellings per capita, one for every 20 persons in the county10. Whereas those counties which saw the majority of their residential housing development occur in advance of and througout the Celtic Tiger era, the ones which came late to the party to cater for the needs of those pushed further from the cities were stopped in their tracks. And the stark picture that is the multitudes of halted developments throughout the counties such as Laois not only sums up their situation only too aptly but also serves to frame the cause of the problem: a system that is frozen in time.
9
(Central Statistics Office of Ireland, 2011) (Department of Environment, Community & Local Government, 2010)
10
LOCAL AUTHORITY STAFFING11 Due to the current moratorium on public service recruitment and promotions, public sector staffing in general has itself become frozen and an obvious area where members of the public are experiencing end-user difficulties as a result of this is on Local Authority Staffing levels. Put simply, if the staffing is not available to perform the function the availability of funding becomes largely irrelevant. When we look at 2010 levels of staffing in Kildare County Council we see that there were 925.4 whole time equivalent members of staff to serve a population of 209,955 . And, where staffing levels are analysed against population numbers, this county displays the second lowest ratio of staff to population in 2009 and third lowest ratio of staff to population in 2010 whereby each staff member served the needs of 226.88 Kildare residents.
To put this figure in context, the national staff member to resident ratio is 1 staff member for every 152 residents meaning that Local Authority Staff employed by Kildare County Council are, on average, responsible for 81 more residents than the national average.
% Variation from Average Local Authority per capita Staffing Levels 2010 (Average 152.09)
11
Figures supplied by the Department of the Environment, (Minister for the Environment, Community and Local Government (Mr. P. Hogan), 2011)
Furthermore, where we compare Kildare with Mayo, a county that resides at the opposite end of the staffing scale and is not without a sizeable population - 130,552 persons -, the disparities in staffing levels are truly exposed. As previously mentioned, Kildare County Council has, according to 2010 levels, 925.4 staff members as compared with Mayo County Councils 1103.65 members of staff. Again we see a situation whereby a county with a population exceeding another receives fewer resources.
Mayo County Council’s staff members therefore are responsible for 18.83% fewer residents than the national average; but when compared with Kildare we see that the staff members of this local authority have a responsibility to 72.52% fewer residents than each staff member working for Kildare County Council. More stark still is the comparison between Mayo County Council and the persistently understaffed Meath County Council. Here, at a staggering 88.82% above average in ratio of staff to residents, Meath County Council staff members are responsible for 107.65% more residents than their Mayo counterparts. When considered on an everyday operations level such blatant heights of staffing disparity are, particularly in light of the blanket moratorium on public sector recruitment, absurd at best and truly chilling at worst. Without the staff to administer the functions of the local authority it is the goods and services intended to be delivered to their tax-paying clients that suffer first. Gone is the ability of the existing staff to perform basic duties such as answering phone queries or processing urgent applications for Housing Adaptation Grants or Planning Permission. And if these workers are forced to run simply to stand still then what hope is there for the prospect of pro-active and forward thinking service development?
GARDA NUMBERS An Gardaí Síochána have been subject to the same recruitment and promotions moratorium as other State institutions, and the final class of new Garda Recruits graduated from the Garda Training College in Templemore in June 2011. With older members of the force retiring on the other end of the spectrum, an already overstretched police force is being pushed to breaking point.
Ratio of Gardaí to Population By Garda Division Population Per Garda
700 600 500
400
Population Per Garda, 374.84
300 200 100
0
Given the current constraints on resources it is understandable that those in charge of the various Garda divisions would see it not only as prudent but as downright essential to stringently resist any effort to remove and redistribute staff members in order to create greater parity throughout the country. Nonetheless, where Garda divisions are subject to general staffing constraints in tandem with having to cater for a rapidly growing and evolving population base the absence of a broad strategy on Garda allocations creates a system that rewards those in areas of decline and punishes those in areas of expansion. The Kildare Garda Division as of September 2010 contained 328 Gardaí serving a population of 209,955 - in other words each Garda in Kildare is responsible for the safety of 640 people. To put this in context, nationally An Gardaí Síochána were 12,539 strong as of September 2010 and are responsible for the security & safety of 4,700,091 people - this equates to an average per capita representation ratio of 1:379. Each
Kildare Garda is therefore responsible for an extra 261 people, or 68.86% above the national average. Now compare those figures with the level of responsibility for GardaĂ in the Sligo / Leitrim division who have a force of 331 to cater for a population of 97,048 people putting them 81.64 persons, or -21.78%, per Garda below the national average. Coincidentally the populations of Sligo and Leitrim have, since 1981 grown by only 17.66% and 15.10% respectively, 16.81% combined and by a total of 13,965 persons over the course of the past 31 years as compared to the 101.64% population explosion seen in Kildare over the same timeframe. Of course, a natural variance in Garda numbers is to be expected when differential crime rates by locality are taken into account. When we examine the recently available figures outlining the regional breakdown of households which experienced some crime, these statistics alone cannot account for the variance in resourced identified12. Indeed it can seem counter-intuitive, given the higher number of crimes reported by householders in the midlands, and the apparent lack of resources present on a per capita basis (see chart overleaf) in those counties.
% Households which experienced any type of crime, 2010 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
The question that is begging to be asked is thus: when geographical crime statistics are discounted, what rationale there can possibly be to explain why a county with a population of 209,955 has 328 GardaĂ to service its needs while two counties with a combined population of 97,048 has a Garda force numbering 331?
12
(Central Statistics Office of Ireland, 2011)
Percentage of Variance from National Per Capita Levels of Garda Resourcing 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% -10.00% -20.00% -30.00%
LOCAL AUTHORITY FUNDING
“In terms of local government finance, the Department is focused on the financial wellbeing and effective financial management and accountability of local authorities and the promotion of value for money principles in the sector.”13
The Department of Environment, Community & Local Government is the Government Department charged with overall funding and organisational administration of Local Authorities throughout the country. Motor Tax Receipts along with an annual amount of Exchequer funding is placed into this central fund and distributed “for the purposes of general discretionary funding of their day-to-day activities and for non-national roads, and funding for certain local government initiatives.”14 This is by no means the only source of funding for Local Authorities - indeed according to an Oireachtas Report15 on Local Government Funding the General Purpose Grant makes up only 19% of Local Government Funding on average. The other 81% of funding is comprised of revenue derived from Commercial Rates (28%), Goods & Services (28%) and Government Grants & Subsidies (25%). With the exception of the latter, the levels of these categories of funding cannot be fully controlled by central or local government as the level of intake is largely market-driven, therefore the General Purpose Grants distributed from the LGF are a positive means of assessing Local Government Funding. Although it is understandable that these grants are in some way used to even out the funding inequities that develop as result of the inability of some Local Authorities to raise funding through Commercial Rates and Goods and Services Provision, there is a certain point at which this equalization process becomes somewhat disadvantageous to those authorities that are seen to be less dependent on the General Purpose Grant. The increased pressure on services presented in Local Authority areas that have higher levels of population and commercial activity cannot be discounted in the governmental funding process as to do so ensures the areas generating income through their own activities are in fact almost punished for that productivity. A certain element of minimum service level provision must be the basis of General Purpose Grant allocations, arguably the generation of Commercial Rates and income from Goods & Services within a local authority area serves as a source of income that sustains this activity and provides additional revenue to improve on basic services. If inequities in the ability of Local Authorities to raise such funds are to be entirely evened 13
(Department of Environment, Community & Local Government) (Department of Environment, Community & Local Government) 15 (Oireachtas Library & Research Service, 2010) 14
out through a targeted allocation of the General Purpose Grants, the question must be asked: what incentive is there to exert efforts towards generating local revenue by other means when the only reward is a downward adjustment in central funding? Again Kildare provides a strong illustrative example of this point. When the annual accounts for this Local Authority are viewed the general make-up of its budget roughly reflects that of the proportions set out in Figure 1 below as sourced from a 2010 Oireachtas Library & Research Service report on Local Government16.
Figure 1 - Breakdown of Local Government budgets by income stream (National Average)17
Kildare County Council’s 2009 budget is broken down by income stream in Figure 2. As can be seen, the general breakdown by category is broadly similar to that provided for in Figure 1.
County Charge (Inc) 2% Pension Levy 1%
KCC Budget 2009 State Grants and Subsidies 22%
Rates 27% Goods and Services 29%
Local Government Fund General Purpose Grant 17%
Contributions from other LAs 2%
18
Figure 2 - Kildare County Council Annual Income 2009
16 17
Ibid. (Oireachtas Library & Research Service, 2010)
NATIONAL SCHOOL CLASS SIZES The latest Department of Education statistics as they relate to class size are equally reflective of the public sector trend of penalising areas of growth while rewarding areas of decline. Indeed the fundamental means by which the need for additional staff and facilities is assessed by the Department of Education reflects this without any need for recourse to pupil, teacher, class size and the various other statistics at hand. Simply put, instead of using birth statistics and projections of population growth to predict the likely increases in demand on school places to bring new school buildings and teaching staff on stream in tandem with growth, the Department of Education’s policy is that it will not assign additional resources or staff until the need is demonstrated through the number of pupils already enrolled in the school. As a direct result of this bizarre policy, the staff and management of schools around the country are prevented from pro-actively tackling increased demand until it literally arrives on their doorstep. Furthermore, this fundamental error in strategy on the part of Departmental managers means that schools in areas of growth are forced to work with persistent, endemic overcrowding and under-resourcing until such time as growth arrests, perhaps decline begins and everyone can breath a sigh of relief. Yes, there will of course be times where population predictions are somewhat inaccurate but in areas that have seen consistent and rapid population growth, investing in the likelihood of continued growth is not exactly Russian Roulette. Proof of the folly that this Departmental policy represents is very telling in the year on year statistics published by the Department of Education itself which clearly demonstrate that the highest class numbers exist in the areas of population growth while those counties that have a relatively stable or declining population fare better. The same counties as have been shown to dominate the top and bottom levels of each category of analysis here emerge again. Indeed when we consider the counties, which, according to the Census of Population 2011 Preliminary Report, have grown by the largest amounts between 2006 and 2011 it is not surprising to see them feature among the largest class sizes in the country. Fingal’s population grew by 13.8% during this period and averages class sizes that are 10.54% above the national average; Kildare’s population grew by 12.7% and boasts class sizes which are 8.74% above the national average; and of course we should not forget Meath which, having grown in population by 13% between 2006 and 2011, finds itself with class sizes that are, on average, 10.56% above the national average thereby winning the unwelcome title of county with the largest class sizes in the country.
18
(Kildare County Council, 2010)
These counties have two things in common, not only do they have large existing populations but their rate of growth is significant and, in the absence of pro-active school development that works to provide suitable school capacity in line with growth, the delay between proving additional need and receiving the required resources from the Department of Education & Skills is inordinately and unnecessarily protracted. Now we turn our attention towards the opposite end of the scale and see that Mayo, Roscommon and Leitrim feature with 12.45%, 9.08%, 8.52% students below the national average class size respectively. Mayo, although a county with a sizeable population - 130,552 as of April 201119 - has experienced only moderate growth of 5.42% since 2006. The impact of this steady growth is that the level of new students in the county has caused a gradual upward trend as opposed to the spike in demand for resources seen in more rapidly growing areas. Interestingly enough Leitrim and Roscommon, the two counties that experienced the lowest real levels of population growth nationally, boast class sizes which are 8.52% and 9.08% respectively below the national average in class size levels. While both counties grew by relatively sizeable percentages proportionately between 2006 and 2011, i.e. 9.8% and 8.7% respectively, their low general levels of population, (Leitrim 31,778 persons & Roscommon - 63,898 persons) are perhaps a factor in their being able to absorb such relative growth and remain below the national average where class sizes are concerned.
15.00%
% Variance in class sizes by County
10.00%
5.00%
-5.00%
-10.00%
-15.00%
19
Meath Fingal Kildare Carlow Dun Laoghaire Rathdown Wicklow Kilkenny Waterford Limerick Cork City Louth Cavan Laois Wexford South Dublin Offaly Monaghan Westmeath Waterford Longford Donegal Tipperary (North & South) Kerry Clare Sligo Dublin City Cork Galway Galway City Limerick City Leitrim Roscommon Mayo
0.00%
(Central Statistics Office Ireland, 2011)
National school class sizes however cannot be discussed in the absence of data relating to birth rates given that the level of births in a county will have a direct effect on the demand for school resources. And, when we look at the six counties at the top and bottom levels of the class size scale we can see that levels of birth rate seem to follow a distinct pattern, particularly at the high end of the scale where classes are oversubscribed. With birth rates of 25.45%, 21.21% and 18.79% above the national average respectively, Fingal, Meath and Kildare have the highest rates of fertility in the country. Understandably enough, when such rates of growth are combined with the Department of Education & Skills’ system of requiring schools to prove existing as opposed to future need before resources may be provided, these counties have the largest class sizes in the country. The needs of these counties and those with similar growth patterns could have been predicted in advance of children arriving at the school gates however the very system that is used to assess need works against such action. Meanwhile Roscommon, one of the counties with the smallest class sizes in the country, has a birth rate which is decidedly lower than the national average – almost 16%. Of all three select examples cited in this study, these findings perhaps most effectively illustrate the central point about the consequences of insufficient forward planning when it comes to making provision for public services.
30.00% 25.00%
Birth Rate by County (2009)
20.00%
15.00% 10.00% 5.00%
-10.00% -15.00% -20.00% -25.00%
Cork City
-5.00%
Fingal Meath Kildare Carlow Wicklow South Dublin Laois Longford North Tipperary Westmeath Waterford City Cork Cavan Galway Wexford Limerick Offaly Louth Waterford Leitrim Clare Kilkenny Sligo Dublin City Limerick City Mayo County South Tipperary Donegal Kerry Galway City Monaghan Roscommon
0.00%
CONCLUSION While this study is brief and is by no means exhaustive, it clearly demonstrates the trend which exists in the provision of public services around the country. The massive exchequer crisis which hit Ireland in 2008 was met with an equally drastic programme of austerity. And as debate has focused since then almost exclusively on the precise levels of austerity required, the wider genius of blanket, blunt and utilitarian cutting without respect to demographic variance has received comparatively little scrutiny. Indeed, it has seemed at times that the realisation that we are in an extended period of austerity, rather than a short, nasty economic shock, has come very slow to government, opposition and the wider public alike. If we are to endure an extended period of fiscal readjustment, of perhaps up to a decade, it is essential that the case be made to make that readjustment in the best possible interests of the people. While the adjustments made to date have no doubt been felt keenly, particularly where cuts are regressive, by being forced to address public service spending at all levels we are presented with a rare opportunity to rebalance exchequer spending, usher in an age of greater efficiency, and ultimately break the cycle of continually working to satisfy the needs of the past as opposed to the future.
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