Abu Dhabi Residential Market Report
Q3
2016
cavendishmaxwell.com
Abu Dhabi Residential Market Report - Q3 2016
cavendishmaxwell.com
Foreword Cavendish Maxwell is a highly respected independent firm of chartered surveyors and property consultants, focusing on property services throughout the Middle East and Africa. Established in 2008, Cavendish Maxwell has grown into one of the region’s largest and highest profile property companies, employing over 60 people across 8 departments.
The Cavendish Maxwell Quarterly Residential Market Report for Abu Dhabi provides a summary and analysis of the apartment and villa properties in investment zones, highlighting the price movement, rent and yield scenario, residential supply as well as the macro-economic factors impacting this segment.
Our experience covers property, land and business asset valuations; investment; asset management; fund management; disposals and acquisitions; rent reviews; lease renewals; development appraisals; advisory services; market research; feasibility studies; project management and building consultancy.
Abu Dhabi residential market highlights Average price movement
Residential supply*
Quarter on Quarter % change
Q3 2016 Completions
-0.5% -0.5%
724 units
12 month % change
Q4 2016 Pipeline
-3.0% -3.0%
5,000 additional units *The data provided is based on apartment and villa properties in Abu Dhabi investment zones only
Contents • Macro-economic factors
• Rent performance
• Investment climate
• Residential supply
• Price performance
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Abu Dhabi Residential Market Report - Q3 2016
Macro-economic factors Figure 1
Abu Dhabi -% change in consumer Dhabi - % change in Consumer Price Index priceAbu index
The month-on-month change in Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Abu Dhabi was 0.29% between June and July, while the 12 month change was 1.76%.
4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1
• Inflation in consumer prices in Abu Dhabi rose to 2.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2016, compared with the same period last year. • The ‘Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels’ group contributed most to the increase in the index during 2015, with a contribution of 84.0% to the change. This contribution resulted mainly from an increase of 11.9% in the prices of this group.
• According to WTTC, the UAE government’s expenditure on travel and tourism development is expected to grow by 2.2% this year and by 4.3% per annum over the next decade.
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Jun-16
Jul-16
YoY % change
25.0
4.0
20.0
3.0
15.0
2.0
10.0
1.0
5.0
0.0
2013
2014
Real GDP
2015E
2016P
% of GDP
Real GDP
5.0
0.0
2017P
Current Account Balance (as % of GDP) Source: IMF, July 2016
Figure 3
Currency movement Currency Movement 1.2
70 68
1
66 62
0.6
60
USD/INR
64
0.8
58
0.4
56
0.2
54
USD/GBP
Jul-16
Sep-16
May-16
Jan-16
Mar-16
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jul-15
Mar-15
USD/EUR
May-15
Jan-15
52 Sep-14
0 Nov-14
• According to a report released by World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) in August, the growth in expenditure by foreign tourists in the UAE will slow down to 3.3% touching USD26.9bn, only marginally higher than last year when it stood at USD26bn and grew at 4.3% over 2014.
May-16
UAE - GDP forecast UAE - GDP forecast
Jul-14
• For the UAE, a strengthening of the dollar, to which the dirham is pegged, could impact tourist inflow. The depreciation of currencies such as euro, pound and rouble will limit spending capacity of visitors from these regions.
Apr-16
Figure 2
USD/EUR, USD/GBP
The US dollar recovered in mid-September with odds of a rate hike moving to December amidst warnings about Chinese economy and low rate of consumer price growth in the US.
Mar-16
Source: Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Authority
• The IMF recommended that the UAE should balance the budget deficits through its financial reserves and ease the spending cuts put into force recently. • The IMF predicts economic activity will moderate this year before improving over the medium term. “Nonhydrocarbon growth is projected to slow to 2.4% in 2016 due to fiscal consolidation, the stronger dollar, and tighter monetary and financial conditions. Over the medium-term, nonhydrocarbon growth is forecast to increase to above 4% as the dampening effect of fiscal consolidation is offset by improvements in economic sentiment and financial conditions as oil prices rise, a pickup in private investment in the run-up to the Expo 2020, and stronger external demand,” the IMF said in a statement in July.
Feb-16
MoM % change
May-14
As of July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecast UAE’s GDP to grow by 2.3% this year, down from the 4% growth last year.
Jan-16
USD/INR
Source: Cavendish Maxwell research
4
Figure 4
UAE petrolUAE & diesel prices Petrol & Diesel Prices 2.4 2.2 AED/ litre
• An IMF working paper released in August titled ‘The impact of oil prices on the banking system in the GCC’ cited linkages between oil price movements and bank performance. The paper highlighted how oil price rise leads to higher oil revenues and therefore stronger fiscal and external positions for banks. It also enables investors to receive higher returns from the equity market given the positive impact on corporate growth alongside a rise in government spending. This in turn improves non-oil output growth, banking sector liquidity and credit growth, real estate prices and stronger bank balance sheets. With an oil price slide all these factors can reverse.
In September, both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC revised forecasts for oil prices stating that the slowdown could persist for much longer than expected. • The IEA highlighted that a sharp slowdown in demand and increasing inventories are contributing to oversupply in the market, which is expected to continue through the first half of next year. OPEC also highlighted the oversupply issue, with output from non-member countries set to increase. • Oil companies have been grappling with weaker finances following spending cuts. They are expected to curtail expenses further into the new year because of the price slump.
Deposits by resident Non-Banking Financial Institutions have decreased 32% year-onyear as per UAE Central Bank data for June.
1.6 1.4 1.2 g15 p15 O ct -1 N 5 ov -1 5 De c15 Ja n16 Fe b16 M ar -1 6 Ap r-1 M 6 ay -1 6 Ju n16 Ju l-1 Au 6 g16
1.0 Au
• Oil price performance has historically been an important driver of business growth in the GCC, with contraction in liquidity and performance of equity markets being closely linked to it. The UAE is less dependent on oil than other GCC countries. However, the tightening of global liquidity conditions and subsequent impact on the real estate sector played a significant role in the 2009 financial crisis.
1.8
Unleaded Petrol 98
Unleaded Petrol 95
Unleaded Petrol 91
Diesel
Source: UAE Ministry of Energy Figure 5
GCC: Dependence on oil revenues 2000-05 2006-10 2011-14 Oil export revenues as % of total exports of goods and services Bahrain 58.7 60.5 65.1 Kuwait 82.7 80.5 87.6 Oman 76.9 69.4 64.3 Qatar 88.5 85.9 88.9 Saudi Arabia 83.4 83.1 83.0 UAE 45.0 38.7 32.6 Fiscal oil revenues as % of total fiscal revenues Bahrain 71.7 82.2 87.2 Kuwait 72.7 79.2 83.6 Oman 83.4 83.4 88.7 Qatar 90.5 88.3 90.7 Saudi Arabia 82.8 88.3 90.3 UAE 60.2 65.1 69.9 Source: IMF Working Paper: The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC Note: Fiscal data is of the general government for UAE and central government in other GCC countries Figure 6
Global Oil Prices Global oil prices 60 50 USD / barrel
• Petrol prices in the UAE for August 2016 decreased by an average of 8% in comparison to July and have increased by 4% since January 2016.
2.0
Se
Fuel prices decreased in August with Super 98 at AED1.73/litre, Special 95 at AED1.62/litre and E Plus91 at AED1.55/litre. The diesel price was AED1.76/litre for August.
40 30 20 10
• The liquidity support facility of the central bank has decreased from AED514 million in December 2013 to AED228 million in December 2015 and AED200 million in July.
0 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Brent
West Texas
OPEC
Source: Cavendish Maxwell research
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Abu Dhabi Residential Market Report - Q3 2016
Investment climate Figure 7
The proportion of non-oil exports in total traded value for Emirate of Abu Dhabi has remained relatively stagnant over the last five years at an average of 36% of total trade value.
Dhabi Trade (Million AED) AED) Abu DhabiAbu trade (million 1200000 1000000 800000 600000
• In 2015 the top three countries in terms of value of trade with Emirate of Abu Dhabi were India, China and United States of America.
400000 200000
• India, Saudi Arabia and Oman had the largest non-oil exports (excluding re-exports) trade value with the Emirate of Abu Dhabi in 2015.
0
2011
2012
Imports
of 2014 was AED81,112 million, up from AED71,931 million at the end of 2013.
2014
Non-oil Exports
Total value of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to the Emirate of Abu Dhabi at the end
2013
2015
Re-Exports
Source: Statistics Centre - Abu Dhabi
Figure 8
FDI by Economic Activity (Million AED) AED) FDI by economic activity (million 40,000
• This increase is mainly a result of FDI to ‘Financial institutions and insurance’, which attracted FDI worth AED12,731 in 2014, compared with AED10,137 million in 2013. • European countries accounted for the largest proportion of FDI in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Investment from these countries increased from AED26,684 million in 2013 to AED32,980 million in 2014.
35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
• There has been a 20% decline in FDI to Real Estate sector from 2012 to 2014, while the FDI to Construction sector has increased by 38% over the same period.
In July the US Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged triggered a gold price rally, with prices averaging USD 1,340 per ounce.
0
2011
2012 Real Estate*
*Includes real estate sales to non-residents
2013
2014
Construction Source: Statistics Centre - Abu Dhabi
Figure 9
Gold Price (USD/oz) Gold price (USD/oz) 1400
• The Federal Reserve’s move to delay interest rate hikes signaled continuing uncertainty about the global economy and this has led to the gold price rally in the last few months.
1350
• The rally was also fueled by the post-Brexit macro-economic uncertainty. By mid September prices had fallen from three week highs and is now trading in a tight range.
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1300 1250
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• Gold bullion asset base for the Central Bank of UAE has increased from AED347 million in June 2015 to AED1,195 million in July 2016.
Source: Cavendish Maxwell research
© Cavendish Maxwell 2016
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Figure 10
5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
3.50 3.00
2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50
• During the third quarter the fund also announced plans to take a 20% stake in Bahrain-based Investcorp, which focuses on alternative investment products.
The price of the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange General Index (ADI) has increased 5% YTD as of mid September.
Sep-16
Aug-16
Jul-16
Jun-16
Apr-16
May-16
Mar-16
Jan-16
Feb-16
Eshraq RAK Properties
Source: Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange
Figure 11
AnnualAnnual trading activity - Sep’15 - ‘16 Trading Activity - 19 Sep'15 - '16
Volume
• This year’s loss is primarily linked to rising operating costs, lower commodity prices and currency losses for the global entity. • In June the Abu Dhabi government announced plans to merge Mubadala with another government-owned fund International Petroleum Investment Company (Ipic). The two entities have combined assets of USD130 billion with USD65 billion assets each and their merger will create one of the largest sovereign wealth funds globally.
Dec-15
Sep-15
Aldar Manazel General Index (ADI)
• This is expected to improve access to bank funding for businesses and enhance the asset quality of banks.
Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala posted losses of nearly AED5 billion in the first half of 2016, compared to profit of about AED500 million in the first half of last year.
Oct-15
0.00
• The UAE is set to formalise the bankruptcy law by the end of this year to enable companies to restructure or wind up their business with regulatory support.
Nov-15
• At the moment the UAE does not have formal bankruptcy regulations and industry bodies such as the UAE Banks Federation have been lobbying for its introduction.
AED
2.50
General Index
Price Performance Share price Share performance
8,000,000,000
8,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
0
A
AR LD
E
aq shr K RA
s
ie ert
p
Pro
zel
a an
M
Volume
l
a Re
ate Est
Value (AED)
The business environment in the UAE received a boost with the approval of the draft bankruptcy law by the cabinet in September.
0
Value
Source: Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange
• Among the real estate stocks listed on ADI, the volume of trading activity over the last twelve months has been highest for Eshraq Properties, while the share price declined by over 12% YTD. • Trading value remained highest for Aldar in the last twelve months. The stock was also among the initial equity futures launched on Nasdaq Dubai in the third quarter.
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Abu Dhabi Residential Market Report - Q3 2016
Price performance Apartments Apartment prices in Abu Dhabi registered modest declines of 0.5% on average during Q3 2016, with 12 month declines averaging 3.0% in investment zones.
Figure 12
Abu Dhabi Residential Prices vs. Oil
120
100 120
1180 1140 1160 1120 1140 1100 1120 1080 1100 1060 1080 1060 1040
80 100 60 80
AED per sq ft
40 60 20 40 0 20
16
3
20
16
20
2
Q
16
20
Q
15
20
1
4
Q
15
20
3
Q
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20
Q
15
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Q
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Q
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Q
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Q
14
1040 1020 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 0 1020 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016
14
USD per barrel
• Average apartment prices in Abu Dhabi investment zones have declined nearly 8% since highs in Q2 2014, with any recovery in the near term being linked to external factors such as the oil price and global market instability. With OPEC recently highlighting oversupply issues as a result of production by non-member countries, the forecast for oil prices has been revised downwards for 2017 and will continue to impact demand for residential property in the emirate.
1180
Abu Dhabi Residential Prices vs. Oil vs. oil Abu Dhabi residential prices 1160
USD per barrel
• The rate of decline has slowed in comparison to the previous quarter, however pressures still remain from oil price instability, impact of government spending cuts and job losses in some sectors.
AED per sq ft
• 12 month change in apartment prices range from 2 to 4% declines across investment zones in Abu Dhabi.
OPECOPEC Basket CrudeCrude Oil Price USD/barrel Basket Oil Price USD/barrel Abu Dhabi Average Residential Sales Rate (AED psf)
Source: Cavendish Maxwell research Figure 13
A pa rtm ent p r i ce p e r f o r m a n c e
Apartment price performance
1,800
-0.4% -0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4% -0.4%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-0.6% -0.6%
1,400
-1.0%
1,200
-1.5%
1,000
-2.0%
800 600
-2.8% -3%
-3% -3.0%
-3% -2.8%
-2.5%
-3% -2.7%
-3.0%
400
-3.5%
200 0
% change
Average price AED / sq ft
1,600
0.0%
-4.0%
-4% -4.3% Saadiyat Beach Residences
Q2 2016
Al Raha Beach
Q3 2016
Al Reem Island
QoQ % change Q2 2016 - Q3 2016
Al Ghadeer
Al Reef Downtown
-4.5%
12 month change Q3 2015 - Q3 2016
Source: www.propertymonitor.ae
© Cavendish Maxwell 2016
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Villas Villa prices in Abu Dhabi investment zones registered an overall average decline of 0.5% in Q3 2016 and a 3.0% decline on average over the last 12 months, similar to that of apartments.
• Villa prices at Al Raha Gardens declined by more than 4% in 12 months, with quarterly declines of 0.6%.
• With liquidity pressures on home buyers in the emirate, the preference for smaller, more affordable units is rising, thus impacting occupation levels in larger units.
• Investment yields for villas in Al Raha Gardens and Al Reef continue to remain attractive averaging between 6 to 7%. • Among new launches, Aldar announced that a new precinct for the Yas Acres project will be made available soon for off-plan buyers.
• Developers are also adjusting to this new demand and lining up launches of affordable projects. For instance, Bloom Properties announced plans in September to build nearly 3,000 apartments close to the Abu Dhabi airport, targeting the rental market with starting rents of AED45,000 per annum.
Figure 14
V il l a pri c e p e r f o r m a n ce
Villa price performance
1,800
-0.5%
-0.6% -0.6%
-0.8% -0.8%
1,400 Average price AED / sq ft
0.0%
-1.0%
1,200
-1.5%
1,000
-2.2% -2%
800
-2.5%
600 400 200 0
-2.0%
% change
1,600
-0.2% -0.2%
-3.0%
-3.2% -3%
-3.5%
-3.7% -4% Al Raha Gardens
Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Al Reef Villas
QoQ % change Q2 2016 - Q3 2016
Saadiyat Beach Villas
-4.0%
12 month change Q3 2015 - Q3 2016
Source: www.propertymonitor.ae
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Abu Dhabi Residential Market Report - Q3 2016
Rent performance Figure 15
Apartments:
Gross investment yield - Apartments Gross Investment Yield - Apartments
Apartment rents declined 1.8% on average during Q3 2016, with two bedroom properties registering a higher decline than studios and one bedrooms.
12.00% 10.00% 8.00%
• Studio rents declined by 2.5% in Al Raha Beach and Al Reef Downtown, which have larger unit sizes.
6.00% 4.00%
• Two bedroom apartment rents in Al Raha Beach, Al Reef Downtown and Saadiyat Beach Residences witnessed declines of 3% on average quarter-on-quarter.
2.00% 0.00%
• Investment yields for apartment communities in investment zones average 7.5% in Q3.
Al Reef Downtown
Al Reem Island
Al Ghadeer
Q2 2016
Al Raha Beach
Saadiyat Beach Residences
Q3 2016
Source: www.propertymonitor.ae
Figure 16
A partm ent re n t s - Q 3 2 0 1 6Apartment rents - Q3 2016 200,000
0.0%
180,000 -0.5%
AED per annum
160,000 140,000 120,000
-0.8% -0.8% -1.0%
-1.0% -1.0%
100,000
-1.5%
80,000
-1.9% -1.9%
60,000 40,000
-2.5% -2.5%
-2.5% -2.5%
Al Raha Beach
Al Reef Downtown
-2.0%
-2.5%
20,000 -
Al Ghadeer
Studio
1 bed
2 bed
Al Reem Island
Saadiyat Beach Residences
-3.0%
Average QoQ % change
Source: www.propertymonitor.ae
© Cavendish Maxwell 2016
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Figure 17
Villas:
Gross investment yield - Villas Gross Investment Yield - Villas
Rents for villa communities in Abu Dhabi investment zones have declined 2.4% on average in Q3 2016, higher than the declines in apartment rents.
8.00% 7.00% 6.00% 5.00%
• Rents at Saadiyat Beach Villas declined more than properties at Al Raha Gardens and Al Reef, with 2.7% drop in Q3 2016.
4.00% 3.00%
• 4 and 5 bedroom categories have witnessed the highest declines as job losses and oil prices have reduced demand for larger units.
2.00% 1.00%
• Yields for villas in investment zones range from 4 to 7% in Q3.
0.00%
Al Reef
Al Raha Gardens Saadiyat Beach Villas Q2 2016
Q3 2016
Source: www.propertymonitor.ae
Figure 18
V i l l a rents - Q 3 2 0 1 6
Villa rents - Q3 2016
500,000
0.0%
450,000 -0.5%
400,000
AED per annum
350,000
-1.0%
300,000 250,000
-1.5%
200,000 -2.0%
150,000 100,000
-2.3% -2.3%
-2.3% -2.3% -2.5%
-2.7% -2.7%
50,000 -
Al Raha Gardens
Al Reef 3 bed
4 bed
5 bed
Saadiyat Beach Villas
-3.0%
Average QoQ % change
Source: www.propertymonitor.ae
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Abu Dhabi Residential Market Report - Q3 2016
Residential supply Q3 2016 Completions:
Pipeline Supply:
Approximately 724 residential units have been completed in Abu Dhabi investment zones in Q3.
At the end of Q3 2016, there are more than 5,000 additional units scheduled in investment zones in Q4 2016.
• More than 90% of the completed units in Q3 2016 are apartments located in Abu Dhabi city.
• The key locations for upcoming supply in Q4 2016 are Abu Dhabi city, Al Reem Island and Al Raha Beach. Majority of the supply (over 84%) is apartments.
• 325 units have been delayed from Q3 to Q4 2016. • Over 12,000 units are expected to be added to investment zones between 2017-18, of which nearly 80% are apartments. Figure 19
Addi0onal Units (investment zones)
A bu D habi re s i d e n t ia l Abu Dhabi Residen0al Supply 2016 - 2019 supply 2016 - 2019 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 -
Q4 2016
2017
2018
2019
Pipeline supply Source: Cavendish Maxwell Research
© Cavendish Maxwell 2016
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Methodology •
Sale Prices and rents are derived from Property Monitor, a comprehensive real estate platform established in 2014 to provide real-time, market-wide access to transactions and trends. Working with agencies, banks, developers and corporate investors, it provides a deeper insight into real estate advisory, investment, and lending activities. The average sales price per sq. ft. is based on the Property Monitor Index that incorporates signed contracts, registered transactions, valuations and listings verified by Cavendish Maxwell valuation department.
•
Supply projections for residential projects are based on regular tracking of construction status, new launches, delays, etc. This is carried out through site inspections as well as discussion with developers, contractors, in-house building consultancy team and related government entities.
Development Advisory and Real Estate Research Cavendish Maxwell’s advisory and research team uses its in-depth knowledge of the real estate sector and extensive network to support our clients through the development process, providing strategic consultancy and advice to guide and support investment decisions from concept to delivery. We have advised on schemes with a gross development value of over AED 3 billion in the last year. Our reports are used internally for business planning purposes and to satisfy the criteria of external financiers and auditors. Our name is trusted by all major banks across the UAE, supported by our presence on over 30 bank panels across the region.
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Disclaimer © Cavendish Maxwell and Property Monitor 2016. The information and analysis contained in this report has been obtained from or is based on information from a variety of sources generally regarded to be reliable and assumptions which are considered reasonable, and which was current at the time of undertaking market research. However, no representation is made, or responsibility accepted by Cavendish Maxwell or Property Monitor in respect of the accuracy or currency of this information. Cavendish Maxwell and Property Monitor do not accept any liability in negligence or otherwise for any loss or damage suffered by any party resulting from reliance on this publication
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