CCM Data & Primary Intelligence Outlook for China Glyphosate Industry 2009-2014 The Sixth Edition
Researched & Prepared by:
Guangzhou CCM Information Science and Technology Co., Ltd Guangzhou, P. R. China
September 2009
Copyright by Guangzhou CCM Information Science and Technology Co., Ltd (P. R. China) Any publication, distribution or copying of the content in this report is prohibited. Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Tel: +86-20-3761 6606 Fax: +86-20-3761 6968 Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com
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Email: econtact@cnchemicals.com Fax: +86-20-3761 6968
CCM Data & Primary Intelligence Description: China in 2009 has posted new record of glyphosate technical capacity of 655,400t/a and 190,000t/a for PMIDA, an eye-catching climb over that in 2008, respectively 485,400t/a and 172,200t/a. Capacity expansion has further strengthened China’s dominating position in global technical supply, accounting for around 70% of the world total at present. However, China now remains at the low end of the global glyphosate value chain, as a technical supplier, due to its ineffective formulation production technology, weak sales channel and unaccessible registration in international market. Things might change in the future, and China’s influence and importance in global glyphosate formulation market is expected to increase in the near future. Climbing export volume of glyphosate formulation from China might be a clear signal of this trend----- H1 2009 witnessed 20,000 tonnes increased export volume of Chinese glyphosate formulation, compared with the same period of last year, a 20% increase. Among the increased volume, about 97% is exported to U.S., the base of Monsanto. Given China’s glyphosate changing trend in 2008-2009, both domestic and overseas glyphosate enterprises should pay close attention to existing and potential competitors in China, especially their technology improvement, production cost and market activities, etc., in order to better seize business opportunities. This report, based on CCM’s 6-year research experiences in Chinese glyphosate industry and its upstream sectors, dives deep into China’s glyphosate industry to figure out the industry’s key characteristics, latest dynamics and future trends, in terms of production, R&D, pricing, export situation, trade flow, consumption/demand, overseas market, key players’ competitiveness and production cost, international collaboration etc. From a global perspective, this sixth edition will provide you with CCM’s primary intelligence. Penetrating into China’s changing glyphosate market, this report not only provides more accurate data, but also strengthens the following aspects: - Technology innovation and development in mother liquid treatment - Technology improvement on formulation production - Adjuvant development situation - Analysis on flow research and value chain - New price model for technical - Production cost changes - Consumption investigation - Glyphosate price fluctuation in past two years and its potential trend Through explorations in above key aspects, key findings turn out as follows: - Most glyphosate technical manufacturers are decreasing investment except those with advanced technology or long-term cooperation with MNCs
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CCM Data & Primary Intelligence - Major export destinations have remained as South America, North America and Asia - Manufacturers are paying more attention to formulation market - International cooperation is becoming a trend, such as Nantong Jiangshan with Syngenta - Air oxidation method is not as good as expected - Technology update and increased investment in wastewater treatment has become a hotspot and an urgent problem with China’s looming ban on production of formulation with AI content lower than 30%. - Industry integration especially capacity concentration is seeing a pressing trend. What can you benefit from this report? As China’s glyphosate has been playing a crucial role in global market and its position will last and even enhance in the future, investment opportunities do exist in Chinese market. With CCM’s insights in this industry, this report will help senior executives and decision makers responsible for formulating business development strategy or seeking competitor intelligence, to better grasp investment opportunities. Furthermore, the report, covering China’s glyphosate’s whole value chain, will provide insights to most key players along this chain, such as suppliers, distributors, traders of glyphosate raw materials, its intermediates, technical and formulation, as well as technology researchers, suppliers, etc. namely those involved in glyphosate industry or its upstream and downstream industries, thus bringing unexpected benefits to these players.
Main content: No.
Content
Page
Executive summary
1
Introduction and methodology
5
I
Pesticide industry in China
9
I-1.1
Pesticide history in China
9
I-1.2
Pesticide supply in China
10
I-1.3
Pesticide demand in China
14
I-1.4
Governmental policies on agriculture & pesticide industry
16
II
Factors influencing China’s glyphosate industry
19
II-1
Economic environment
20
II-2
Government policy
31
II-3
Crop planting situation in the world
38
II-4
Crop planting situation in China
41
II-5
Entry barriers of glyphosate industry
44
III
Glyphosate upstream industry
49
III-1
Introduction to key raw materials & intermediates of glyphosate
49
III-1.1
Glycine
52
III-1.2
IDAN
60
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CCM Data & Primary Intelligence III-1.3
DEA
68
III-1.4
PMIDA
79
III-1.5
Yellow phosphorous
85
III-1.6
Phosphorus trichloride
92
III-1.7
Dimethyl phosphite
97
III-1.8
Paraformaldehyde
103
III-1.9
Hydrocyanic acid
112
III-1.10
Other materials
116
III-1.10.1
Formaldehyde
116
III-1.10.2
Natural gas
118
III-2
Impacts of raw materials on glyphosate industry
121
IV
Glyphosate supply
124
IV-1
Glyphosate registration situation
124
IV-2
Glyphosate technical
130
- China’s position in the world glyphosate technical supply
130
- Total supply
131
- Producers
132
- Production by region
140
- Production by pathway
141
- New projects
144
IV-3
Glyphosate formulations
145
IV-3.1
Overview
145
- China’s position in the world glyphosate formulations supply
146
- Total supply by specific formulation
147
Introduction to specific formulations
155
- Glyphosate 41% solution
155
- Soluble powder & WP forms of glyphosate formulations
156
- High content glyphosate water formulations
157
IV-3.3
China’s weakness in formulation production
158
IV-3.4
Analysis of ban on glyphosate SL with concentration less than 30%
160
IV-3.5
China’s glyphosate formulation trend and its impacts on global market
162
IV-4
Mass balance between glyphosate and its upstream products
166
IV-5
Forecast of glyphosate supply in the next five years
168
V
Trade analysis
169
V-1
Trade position in the world
169
V-2
Antidumping issues involving Chinese glyphosate
169
V-3
Export situation of PMIDA and glyphosate
172
V-4
Chinese glyphosate flow
187
V-5
Trade trend of glyphosate in the next five years
191
VI
Pricing of glyphosate
192
IV-3.2
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CCM Data & Primary Intelligence VI-1
Price
192
VI-1.1
Key factors influencing glyphosate pricing
192
VI-1.2
Analysis of price changes in the past
193
VI-1.3
Current price and price forecast to 2009~2014
196
VI-2
Price index model for glyphosate
200
VI-3
Identification
204
VII
Demand for glyphosate
206
VII-1
Global demand for glyphosate
206
- Overview of global genetically modified crop
206
- Global demand for glyphosate
209
VII-2
Domestic demand for glyphosate
212
VII-2.1
Overview of Chinese glyphosate technical consumption
388
VII-2.2
Position and market size of glyphosate in herbicide industry
307
VII-2.3
Glyphosate formulations use in China
308
- by specific formulation
214
- by crop
216
- by region
227
VII-3
Forecast of glyphosate demand in the next five years
234
VIII
Production technology & technology level
236
VIII-1
Glyphosate technical
236
VIII-1.1
AEA pathway
237
VIII-1.1.1
Description
237
VIII-1.1.2
Development of AEA pathway in China
238
VIII-1.1.3
Theoretical consumption of raw materials for AEA pathway
243
VIII-1.1.4
Advantages and problems
244
VIII-1.2
DEA route
244
VIII-1.2.1
Description
244
VIII-1.2.2
Development of AEA pathway in China
247
VIII-1.2.3
Theoretical consumption of raw materials for AEA pathway
249
VIII-1.2.4
Advantages and problems
249
VIII-1.3
IDAN route
250
VIII-1.3.1
Description
250
VIII-1.3.2
Development of AEA pathway in China
251
VIII-1.3.3
Theoretical consumption of raw materials for AEA pathway
252
VIII-1.3.4
Advantages and problems
252
VIII-1.4
Comparison of different pathways and development trend
253
VIII-1.5
Wastewater treatment technology
254
VIII-2
Glyphosate formulations
259
VIII-3
Cost analysis of glyphosate (five major glyphosate producers)
266
VIII-3.1
Zhejiang Wynca Chemical Industrial Group Co., Ltd.
267
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CCM Data & Primary Intelligence …
…
0
VIII-3.5
Hubei Sanonda Co., Ltd.
274
IX
Competitive landscape of Chinese glyphosate industry
276
X
Outlook of Chinese glyphosate in the next five years
283
X-1
Research hot points
283
X-2
Development trend of pathways
284
X-3
Trends of production cost
285
X-4
Trends of supply & demand
287
XI
Conclusion, challenges, commercial opportunities and recommendation
290
XI-1
Conclusion
290
XI-2
Challenges, commercial opportunities and recommendation
293
XII
Appendix
297
XII-1
Glyphosate technical producers
297
XII-1.01
Zhejiang Wynca Chemical Group Co., Ltd.
297
…
…
XII-1.45
Shandong Wucheng Kangda Chemical Co., Ltd.
386
XII-2
PMIDA producers
388
XII-2.01
Jinan Glyline Chemical Co., Ltd.
388
…
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XII-2.05
Jiangsu Zhongdan Group Co., Ltd.
393
XII-3
Recent activities
395
XII-4
SWOT analysis of the five glyphosate manufacturers
399
0
0
Executive summary: Glyphosate, the key active ingredient of Roundup, is one of the most commonly sold herbicides in the market today. With rapidly increasing demand, glyphosate has shared more than xx% of the global herbicide sales volume. After nearly 30 years’ development, China has become the largest production base of glyphosate technical in the world and has been supplying nearly two thirds of the global production of glyphosate, one of the most popular herbicides. China’s glyphosate industry has developed fast since 2007 with rapid increase in both capacity and output. The total capacity of glyphosate technical in 2008 was xxxxt/a with annual growth rate of xxxx%. As of August 2009, China has had xx glyphosate producers with total capacity of around xxxxt/a. And the estimated glyphosate output reached xxxx tonnes in 2008 with CAGR of xxxx% in 2004-2008. Attracted by fat profit in glyphosate production in H2 2007 and H1 2008, over xx new entrants rushed into glyphosate technical production in 2008 due to lack of supervision on and low entry threshold of glyphosate industry.
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CCM Data & Primary Intelligence China’s glyphosate industry highly depends on overseas market, with about xx% of its glyphosate output exported every year. Besides, China has become the largest exporter of glyphosate in the world in recent years, and the export volume has reached xxxx tonnes in 2008, satisfying around xxxx% of the global demand. The export volume of glyphosate technical shared about xxxx% of the total technical output in 2008. In China, glyphosate is quite important for the weeding in orchard, wasteland reclamation, and traditional crop fields in the period of pre-seeding. Orchard is the largest application of glyphosate, accounting for about xxxx% of the country’s total in 2008. With the lowest price among various formulations, 10%SL is the most popular glyphosate formulation at home, accounting for about xx% of the total glyphosate formulation use in 2008. The top x provinces by glyphosate consumption (AI) are Guangdong, Guangxi, Henan, Yunnan and Shandong, with their total consumption accounting for about xxxx% of the country’s total in 2008. There are two pathways for glyphosate production in China including IDA pathway and AEA pathway. According to the difference of raw materials, IDA pathway can also be subdivided into two categories, which are DEA route and IDAN route. Because of its simple flowchart and mature technology, AEA method is easy to be mastered by most companies, plus the sufficient raw material supply in China, the AEA pathway which has been eliminated in the international market has been widely used in China’s glyphosate industry. As of August 2009, the glyphosate capacity by this pathway was about xxxxt/a, accounting for xxxx% of China’s total capacity.
Character of CCM' Report: This trade analysis report, a consultancy product derived from CCM's import and export statistics, provides key findings on researched subject from aspects of, possibly not all and not limited to the following: import, export, production, key suppliers, price, market, even consumption, etc., with foreign trade, namely, import and/or export, of the researched subject as the focus. This consultancy, with key findings, aims to assist you to uncover potential opportunities through analysing researched subject's flow into and/or out of China. The aim of this report is to provide powerful assistance to the strategy group and the management team in making correct decision as how to penetrate the ever-increasing China market and how to catch the maximum commercial opportunities. The report is formulated independently by CCM’s professional market researchers, based on the first-hand and primary data which are analyzed by scientific methodology, confirmed with both manufacturers/end users/traders and legal authorities, and presented in a logic way. Sample pages：
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IV-2 Glyphosate technical - China’s position in the world glyphosate technical supply Table IV-2-1 Key players of glyphosate technical in the world (‘000 tonnes) PMIDA Glyphosate producers
Glyphosate technical Source
Output ’08 Self-supply About 50 Chinese producers
Capacity ’09
Output ’08
Outsource
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Monsanto (US, Argentina, Brazil, Belgium, Malaysia) Atanor (Argentina) Nortox (Brazil)
Total Source: CCM International
Note: Only PMIDA production circulated in the market is calculated. Monsanto’s PMIDA is consumed by itself.
Table IV-2-2 Situation of China’s glyphosate output in global market, 2005-2008 (tonne) China Year
Global output
China output
PMIDA output share
Total*
Share
2004
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Total* including the glyphosate technical and that converted from PMIDA Source: CCM International
Table IV-2-3 Situation of China’s glyphosate in the overseas market, 2004-2008 (tonne) Year
Overseas consumption*
Export
Share
Export of PMIDA
Total
Share
2004
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Overseas consumption* means the demand excluding China’s Total* including the glyphosate technical and glyphosate technical converted from PMIDA Source: CCM International
- Producers Table IV-2-5 Overview of glyphosate technical manufacturers in China-2 No.
Pathway
Raw material
2009
'09
Capacity, t/a
Output, tonne
Abbreviation 2005
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2005
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Zhejiang Wynca
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glycine
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Zhenjiang Jiangnan
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glycine
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Zhejiang Jinfanda
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glycine
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Nantong Jiangshan
IDA & AEA
glycine & IDAN
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V
Trade analysis
V-1 Trade position in the world China is a very important player in global glyphosate trade. As climbing energy costs keep pushing production costs to grow, developed countries have chosen to import glyphosate from China, mainly attributed to low costs of labor and other resources in China. China therefore has become the biggest exporter of glyphosate in the world in recent years, with export volume reaching xxxxx tonnes in 2008, satisfying around xxxx% of the global demand. …….. Figure V-1.1 Global technical supply & China’s rising share in global supply, 2004-2008 …….. V-3 Export situation of PMIDA and glyphosate As the largest glyphosate supplier in the world, the export volume of glyphosate and PMIDA in China has kept increasing in recent years. Average export growth rate of glyphosate technical, formulation and PMIDA stayed at xxxx%, xxxx% and xxxxx% separately from 2004-2008. …… V-4 Chinese glyphosate flow Figure V-4.1 Glyphosate technical flow, 2008 …… As the largest glyphosate supplier in the word, China has exported xxxxx tonnes glyphosate technical in 2008, accounting for xxxxx% of China’s glyphosate technical output in 2008. …… Table V-4.1 Cooperation between oversea key players and Chinese companies Oversea key player
Main Chinese supplier
Monsanto
xxxxxx, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, xxxxxxxx, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dow
xxxxxxxxx, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Syngenta
xxxxxxxxxx, xxxxxxxxx, xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Helm
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Nufarm
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Atanor
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Source: CCM International
VII-2 Domestic demand for glyphosate VII-2.1 Overview of Chinese glyphosate technical consumption VII-2.2 Position and market size of glyphosate in herbicide industry Table VII-2.2-1 Supply and consumption of herbicides and its share in glyphosate, 2004~2008 (Calculated by AI, tonne) Output
Consumption
Year Herbicide
Glyphosate
Share
Herbicide
Glyphosate
Share
2004
*******
******
******
******
******
******
2005
*******
*******
******
******
******
******
2006
*******
*******
******
******
******
******
2007
*******
*******
******
******
******
******
2008
*******
*******
******
*******
******
******
Source: CCM International
As a non-selective herbicide, after so many years’ promotion, glyphosate has an irreplaceable position
in
the
***************************************************************************************************. And its
consumption
had
grown
at
********************************************************************************************************** *********************************************************************************************e
use
China. VII-2.3 Glyphosate formulations use in China ď †
by specific formulation
Table VII-2.3-1 Consumption of main glyphosate formulations in China, 2004~2008, tonne Main formulations
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
CAGR, 04~08
10%SL
******
******
*******
*******
*******
******
41%SL
*****
*****
*****
******
******
******
20%SL
***
***
*****
*****
*****
******
Others
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
******
Total
******
******
*******
*******
*******
******
Source: CCM International Note: Others mainly include WP, especially 50%WP.
Table VII-2.3-2 Provinces with 41%IPA consumption exceeding 800 tonnes in 2008, tonne 41%IPA
10%SL
20%SL
50%WP
Province
Share of Total
consumption
consumption
consumption
consumption
41%IPA
in
Heilongjiang
*****
*****
*
***
*****
******
Sichuan
*****
*****
*
***
*****
******
Guangdong
*****
******
*
***
******
******
Jilin
*****
***
*
***
*****
******
Shaanxi
*****
*****
*
***
******
******
**************
*****
***
*
***
*****
******
********
*****
*****
*
**
*****
******
*****
***
*****
*
***
*****
*****
********
***
*****
*****
***
******
*****
*****
***
*****
*
***
*****
******
*******
***
******
*
***
******
*****
Source: CCM International
by crop
Table VII-2.3-3 Planting area of main crops in China, 2004~2008, 000’ hectares Main crops
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
CAGR ‘04~’08
Rice
******
******
******
******
*******
*****
Wheat
******
******
******
******
*******
*****
Corn
******
******
******
******
*******
*****
Soybean
*****
*****
*****
*****
******
******
Cotton
*****
*****
*****
*****
******
*****
Sugarcane
*****
*****
*****
*****
******
*****
Tea
*****
*****
*****
*****
******
*****
Rubber
***
***
***
****
****
*****
orchard
*****
******
******
******
*******
*****
Total
*******
*******
*******
*******
*******
*****
Share in total crop area
******
******
******
******
******
*
Source: Ministry of Agriculture Note: Number with * is estimated by CCM International
Table VII-2.3-4 Glyphosate consumption in main crops in China, 2004~2008, tonne Crop Orchard
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
CAGR 04~08
*****
*****
*****
*****
******
******
Corn
***
***
*****
*****
*****
******
Rubber
***
***
*****
*****
*****
******
Rice
***
***
*****
*****
*****
******
Soybean
***
***
***
***
***
******
Cotton
***
***
***
***
***
******
Wheat
***
*****
*****
*****
*****
******
Sugarcane
***
***
***
***
***
******
Tea
***
***
***
***
***
******
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
******
Others
Total
******
******
******
******
******
******
Source: CCM International Note: Others mainly include weeding for wasteland reclamation, non-agriculture use, etc.
ďƒź
Orchard
Orchard covered an a*********************************************************** year on year. And the main fruits with large planting area were apple, orange, pear, peach, litchi and grape. Table VII-2.3-5 Glyphosate consumption in main fruits, 2004~2008, calculated by AI, tonne Main fruits
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
CAGR,04~08
Orange
***
***
***
*****
*****
******
Apple
***
*****
*****
*****
*****
******
Litchi
***
***
*****
*****
*****
******
Pear
***
***
***
***
***
******
Grape
***
***
***
***
***
******
Others
*****
*****
*****
*****
*****
******
Total
*****
*****
*****
*****
******
******
Share in total
******
******
******
******
******
*
Source: CCM International