CCM Data & Primary Intelligence
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CCM Data & Primary Intelligence Description: Now China is the largest copper producer and consumer in the world and its demand for copper will keep strong in the future, thanks to the steady increase in copper output in recent years. However, China is confronted with tight supply and high price of copper, thus, Chinese government has carried out several regulations to upgrade the industry and protect the environment.
Copper ore is widely but unevenly distributed in China, with Tibet, Yunnan and Jiangxi being the largest holders of copper reserves. The output of most cathode copper manufacturers in China has been continuously increasing in the last 10 years. And many manufacturers have expanded or are going to expand their copper production capacity by improving the production line or investing in new projects in 2010. In the future, sharply increasing demand and Chinese government’s policies will drive Chinese copper production to increase continuously.
Although China is the largest copper production base, there is big gap between supply and demand. China highly depends on imported copper ore, with its self-sufficiency rate witnessing downtrend in last 5 years and its import volume of copper reaching 3.11 million tonnes in 2009. Its self-sufficiency rate was only 35.96% in 2009.
SHFE copper price experienced a rapid growth and then a steep dive in the period from 2007-2009, and recovered at the end of 2009. In 2010, SHFE copper price will maintain in the range of USD8,000/t~USD8,900/t. And Chinese demand and weak USD would be the most important factor influencing the copper price in the coming 5 years. In this report, CCM mainly focuses on the following aspects: Major copper producers in China in 2010 New and potential copper capacity in China in recent years Copper production situation in China from 2005 to 2009 Copper ore reserves situation in China from 2003 to 2009 Copper price in China from 2007 to 2009 Copper price trend in China in 2010-2015 Opportunities in this industry Main content: No. Part
Content Main content
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CCM Data & Primary Intelligence I I-1 I-2 II II-1 II-2 II-3 III III-1 III-2 IV IV-1 IV-1-1 IV-1-2 IV-2 IV-2-1 IV-2-2 IV-2-3 IV-3 IV-3-1 … IV-3-18 V
Executive summary Methodology and definitions Overview of Chinese copper industry Supply and demand of copper Policies and regulations on copper industry and trade policies Copper price Futures market of copper Spot market of copper Copper price trend in 2010-2015 Copper resource in China Copper reserves and distribution Copper ore output in 2009 Copper production in China Capacity of copper 2009 Crude copper Refined Copper Cathode copper output Geographical distribution of cathode copper production Production concentration of electrolytic copper producers Output changes in 2005-2009 Introduction to copper producers Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. … Yunnan Copper Group Conclusion
1 2 5 5 6 8 9 9 10 15 15 18 21 21 21 21 24 23 25 27 28 28 0 57 61
Executive summary: Copper reserves in China have reached XXX tonnes in 2009. And copper ore is widely distributed in China. The largest copper reserves holders are Tibet, Yunnan and Jiangxi, whose aggregate reserves are about XX% of China’s total. But compared with other copper ore producing countries, the grade of Chinese copper ore is low, which is one of the important factors restricting the development and utilization of Chinese copper ore.
Besides, China highly depends on imported copper ore. The self-sufficiency rate of copper ore was XX% in 2009. And Chinese copper ore self-sufficiency rate presented downtrend in 2006-2009.
Sharply increasing demand and Chinese government’s policies directly resulted in continuous expansion of Chinese copper capacity. In 2009, the capacity of crude copper and refined copper was XXX million tonnes and 5.16 million tonnes respectively. And the output and consumption Website: http://www.cnchemicals.com Tel: +86-20-3761 6606
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CCM Data & Primary Intelligence volume of refined copper was XXX million tonnes and XXX million tonnes respectively in 2009 in China. Both the copper output and the consumption volume in China ranked first in the world in 2009.
In 2009, the monthly output of cathode copper increased steadily, from XXX tonnes in Jan. to XXX tonnes in Nov. The cathode copper producers are mainly distributed in Anhui, Jiangxi, Shandong, Gansu and Yunnan, with their aggregate output accounting for over 60% of China’s total output. Cathode copper output in China was increased steadily in the period from 2005 to 2009 which could be divided into two stages. The first stage was from 2005 to 2007, with CAGR of XX%, and the second stage was from 2007 to 2009, with CAGR of XX%.
The output of most cathode copper manufacturers in China was continuously increasing in the last 10 years. Although some manufacturers reduced their output in the period from the third quarter of 2008 to the middle of 2009, due to the global financial crisis, many manufacturers have expanded or are going to expand their copper production capacity by improving the production line or investing a new project in 2010.
In order to solve copper shortage, China has to import huge quantity of refined copper each year; the volume of net import in 2009 was XXX tonnes, accounting for XX% of the total supply. Chinese government has carried out several policies to promote the copper industry and increase the import of refined copper and copper ore.
From 2007 to 2009, the copper price experienced a big fluctuation and recovered to over USDXXX/t at the end of 2009. And the copper price had come into a new cycle in 2009. In the coming 5 years, fast increasing domestic demand and weak USD will drive the copper price to reach a new high level.
Character of CCM' Report: The aim of this report is to provide powerful assistance to the strategy group and the management team in making correct decision as how to penetrate the ever-increasing China market and how to catch the maximum commercial opportunities. The report is formulated independently by CCM’s professional market researchers, based on the first-hand and primary data which are analyzed by scientific methodology, confirmed with both manufacturers/end users/traders and legal authorities, and presented in a logic way. Sample pages
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CCM Data & Primary Intelligence I-1 Supply and demand of copper In China, copper industry grew steadily …… Figure I-1-1 Consumption of refined copper, 2005~2009 6.5
Consumption ,million tonnes
6 5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: CCM International
……….. I-2 Policies and regulations on copper industry and trade policies ¾
Requirement for admittance…
¾
Trade policies …
II-1Futures market of copper … Figure II-1-1 SHFE copper price, 2007~May. 2010 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 USD/t
6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 May-10
Mar-10
Jan-10
Nov-09
Sep-09
Jul-09
May-09
Mar-09
Jan-09
Nov-08
Sep-08
Jul-08
May-08
Mar-08
Jan-08
Nov-07
Sep-07
Jul-07
May-07
Mar-07
Jan-07
0
Source: CCM International
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CCM Data & Primary Intelligence … II-3 Copper price trend in 2010-2015 Based on the present situation of influencing factors and the history of copper price, it is estimated that copper price will witness a small jolt in 2010; there will be a small rise in copper price with fluctuation in 2011~2012; the copper price will reach record high and then begin to adjust in 2013~2014; and the copper price will … III-1 Copper reserves and distribution … ¾
Copper ore reserves distribution in China
Table III-1-1 Copper ore reserves of each province, 2009 Province
Reserves（tonnes）
Tibet
23,480,000
Yunnan
17,820,000
Jiangxi
12,820,000
Inner Mongolia
4,717,500
Shanxi
4,079,490
Heilongjiang
3,885,000
Anhui
3,849,000
Sinkiang
2,280,000
Gansu
2,218,670
Sichuan
2,218,670
Hubei
2,075,530
Guangdong
1,896,672
Qinghai
1,646,110
Others
8,583,358
Total
91,570,000
Source: CCM International
III-2 Output of copper ore in 2009 …
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CCM Data & Primary Intelligence Figure III-2-1 Copper ore output (copper content), 2005~2009
1,200,000 1,000,000
tonnne
800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: CCM International
IV-1-2
Refined Copper
Refined copper capacity was 5.16 million tonnes in China in 2009, 0.80 million tonnes larger than that in 2008, including 0.30 million tonnes from Jiangxi. There are more than 1million tonnes under construction. ‌ IV-2 Output of cathode copper ‌ Table IV-2-2 Output of cathode copper producers, 2009 Name
Output, tonne
Share of total output
JCCL
802,000
18.86%
TLYS
718,600
16.90%
JNMC
371,000
8.73%
YCC
286,700
6.74%
Hubei Daye
271,000
6.37%
ShanDong Fangyuan
204,200
4.80%
Shandong XiangGuang
180,100
4.24%
Yantai Penghui
114,300
2.69%
Zhejiang Fuchunjiang
105,600
2.48%
total of top two
1,520,600
35.76%
total of top nine
3,053,500
71.82%
total of whole china
4,251,763
100.00%
Source: CCM International
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