Driver & Scenario Matrix

DRIVER MATRIX

The scenario phase follows a structured approach to imagine what life could look like in 2042. Based on the research conducted during the Trend Phase, current drivers and challenges of the different trends are identified. Drivers are the underlying exogenous forces of the trends that shape the way climate change will be tackled in the AI era. All the identified drivers are modeled as bipolar with extreme outcomes.

As a next step, all drivers are ranked in a matrix based on their degree of uncertainty and their impact. The outcome of a driver is uncertain if both outcomes are equally probable. Based on this ranking, two key drivers are identified. Key drivers have a high impact on Climate Change in the AI era and a high degree of uncertainty. In addition, the two key drivers need to be independent of each other and cannot overlap in their definition. After evaluating different combinations, “Climate Commitment“ and “Geopolitical Dynamics“ are identified as the two key drivers of the four equally plausible scenarios. high

Impact

Infrastructure Sufficiency Geopolitical Dynamics Effectiveness of Green Policy

Climate Commitment

Societal Cohesion Supply of Sustainable Products

Attractiveness of ESG Investments

Availability of Natural Resources Accessibility of Tech

Data Access Consumption Behavior

Uncertainty

high

KEY DRIVERS

Low Climate Commitment

In 2042 individuals’ lack of commitment to climate change action is fuelled by resignation, polarization, and inflation. People believe that it is too late to take effective actions. Instead, hedonistic consumption becomes the social remedy. Increasing prices due to scarce resources hit especially lower classes. This eliminates the willingness to pay a green premium for climate-neutral products. In rich countries, people are hedonistic and do not want to sacrifice their lifestyle. Poorer societies do not sacrifice, as their biggest problem is covering basic needs. Climate commitment is low regarding activism and voting behavior. This leads to countries and companies exploiting all-natural resources. They might mitigate the consequences, but not the root causes.

Individual Climate Commitment

Climate commitment describes how committed individuals are to taking action in fighting the climate crisis. People widely acknowledge climate change, but their degree of commitment is what influences global development. Individuals’ commitment heavily depends on their priorities in life, willingness to adapt, and worldview. It influences their consumption behavior and their participation in activism or elections. How many individuals commit to climate action is an important key driver, as a majority of emissions can be attributed to individual behavior. Further, climate commitment does not focus on companies or government, but on how individuals are also interlinked with legislation. It’s people that elect the governments, and it’s people that have to bear the consequences.

High Climate Commitment

Individuals are aware of climate change and ready to take action to fight the climate crisis. They take responsibility because they and their children are affected. This leads to a change in social norms; fighting climate becomes cool. People are willing to consume sustainably, even if that means reducing their lifestyle because they realize there is no alternative. They believe that they can change the world through their consumption behavior, voting, and activism. This leads governments to focus on prevention rather than adaption. Overall, resources are used more sustainably, resulting in a steadily improving situation for everyone. Humanity has a common cause to fight climate change and a vision for a better future uniting people of all nations.

National Prioritization

In the case of national prioritization, geopolitical dynamics are largely fragmented. Nations are focused on national rather than global survival of the climate crisis, which for some countries could mean not having climate change on their political agendas at all. Legislation (i.e., regulations, guidelines, and sanctions) is unstandardized across the globe. Nations engage in economic protectionism. There is widespread mistrust of supranational organizations, and nations only interact with each other out of explicit selfinterest. Not only do nations tend to not cooperate, but they also may be openly hostile towards one another if it serves their needs. There is a widening disparity between developed countries and developing countries, and developed countries practice unfettered extractionism.

Geopolitical Dynamics

Geopolitical dynamics describe the scale on which political actors – including nations and supranational organizations–act and interact with regard to geographical issues such as climate change. Geopolitical dynamics go beyond mere climate-related international relations, which traditionally refer only to interactions between nations. As used here, the concept of geopolitical dynamics refers to the larger positioning, strategies, and political power of nations in the evolving environmental landscape. Geopolitical dynamics are concerned with national borders; therefore, the consequences of geopolitical dynamics most obviously involve larger political entities, but shifting geopolitical dynamics can have strong effects on individual citizens and local culture as well. In the case of global prioritization, geopolitical dynamics are largely cooperative. Nations are focused on working together to achieve global survival from the climate crisis, which means that all countries have climate change on their political agendas. Legislation (i.e., regulations, guidelines, and sanctions) is standardized across the globe to achieve this goal. Nations happily engage in global free trade. Supranational organizations are thriving and widely trusted, and nations are proud to be members of such collaborative organizations. Nations are only hostile towards one another when absolutely needed to enforce their shared and cohesive goal of environmental sustainability. The disparity between developed countries and developing countries is diminishing, and developed countries provide impactful, developmentally sustainable aid.

Global Prioritization

OTHER IMPORTANT DRIVERS

Unattractive

Green investments underperform conventional ones.

Insufficient

The global water, waste, and energy management systems are insufficient.

Unequal

The accessibility of technology is unequal across the globe.

Ineffective

Policies do not foster sustainable economic behavior.

Unsustainable

Businesses continue to develop and produce non-sustainable products and services. Businesses proactively develop and produce sustainable products and services.

Low

Climate-related data is restricted and fragmented between stakeholders. Climate-related data is easily accessible to relevant stakeholders.

Unsustainable

Consumers only buy unsustainable products.

Scarce

Natural resources are scarce.

No Shared Understanding

Society has no shared understanding of how to tackle climate change. Society has a shared understanding of how to tackle climate change.

Green Investments

Infrastructure

Accessibility of Technologies

Green Policies

Supply of Products

Accessibility of Data

Consumption Behavior

Natural Resources

Societal Cohesion Attractive

Green investments outperform conventional ones.

Sufficient

The global water, waste, and energy management systems are sufficient.

Equal

The accessibility of technology is equal across the globe.

Effective

Policies foster sustainable economic behavior.

Sustainable

High

Sustainable

Consumers only buy sustainable products.

Available

Natural resources are readily available.

Shared Understanding

SCENARIO MATRIX

The two key drivers and their outcomes create a scenario matrix. Each key driver represents one of the axes, with the bipolar outcomes on both ends. All four scenarios are based on the extreme outcomes of the two key drivers. Other important drivers are also considered with plausible and consistent outcomes in each scenario.

“Toward One Green World“ shows a possible future where most people are committed to climate action in their everyday life as well as political participation. The geopolitical landscape is highly cooperative and supranational organizations like the UN, or the EU have additional competencies such as managing CO2 budgets. While the climate crisis is mostly under control, other challenges like increased surveillance or people being dissatisfied with the restricted lifestyle arise.

“Failure of Green Colonialism“ describes a scenario in which individuals display a high commitment to climate action while nations only focus on themselves. Political coordination between countries only occur if there is clear mutual benefit. The democracies in the global north have been able to tackle their environmental objectives due to government action and societal engagement for now. However, the global south has accepted high emissions to make progress, accelerating global warming. The world’s population has started to notice these consequences, causing widespread civil unrest.

“A Hot, Isolated Depression“ follows a protagonist through the grim reality in the year 2042. For years, countries have prioritized their own interests, and people have long since lost hope in successfully reversing climate change. Rebecca’s life has drastically changed since her unconcerned childhood –extreme weather events and climate adaptation measures are the new normal. During one of many heat waves, Rebecca is trying to cope with the various consequences of humankind’s disastrous inaction and turns towards her single biggest priority, her family.

“Falling Together” describes a world that is unified and connected yet driven by mass consumption not addressing

Failure of Green Colonialism

National Prioritization

Geopolitcal Dynamics Climate Commitment

A Hot, Isolated Depression

climate change. Through global cooperation, peace has spread across most parts of the world and people have unseen opportunities to work and live across the world. However, High Commitment

Toward One Green World

Global Prioritization

Low Commitment

Falling Together

due to the unsustainable consumption, the impact of climate change with rising natural disasters is heavily influencing the daily life of people.