Dystopian Realm

Innovation Stagnates and Mittelstand Companies are Heavily Reliant on the Government

Cyrine Chaabani

Daria Ekimova

Milana Gurbanova

Marvin von Hagen

Anselm Krauss

Simon Wittner

Ruby Zhang

To make the scenarios more tangible, multiple signposts were created for each scenario. These can be interpreted as news headlines describing representative events between 2022 and 2042. Therefore, they describe the development towards the future illustrated in this scenario.

Imminent Bankruptcy: Companies Relying on Global Trade Are Bankrupted and Nationalized Vicious Cycle Leads to Authoritarian State With Closed Borders and Oppressed Citizens

German Leadership Caps Energy Prices and Restricts Consumption Was Everything Better in the Old Days?

2022

Why Europe’s Electricity Prices Are Soaring: Reverberations From the War in Ukraine Dangerous Dependency: The Mittelstand Rely on Regulation of Exports and Imports Another Wall? Emigration and Communication Restrictions Prevent Skilled Workers From Leaving the Company

Trade Conflicts Between China, Taiwan, and the USA Lead to Punitive Tariffs and Supply Chain Problems

German Government Implements Protective Tariffs on Imported Injection Nozzles

Innovation Halts: National Focus Weakens Global Exchange of Goods and Information

2042

A Day in 2042

The bell rings, signaling break time. Every four hours, all workers have ten minutes for themselves, which they can use however they please. Most smoke a cigarette outside and engage in small talk. One employee – Karla Dörpmunt – has recently noticed a shift in the topics being discussed. Her colleagues express concern regarding the run-down factory equipment and how nothing changes despite reporting it to management. Others discuss their suspicions that the government is hiding a shortage of raw materials to avoid causing general turmoil. “It will be a rough winter,” she overhears as she walks past a group of employees huddled near the entrance.

Karla usually spends her break smoking as well, but she prefers to be alone. For over 20 years, she worked at the prestigious Mittelstand company Helmutdruck until the energy crisis caused them to nationalize and turn into Helmutwaffen. Production swiftly shifted to combustion engines for military planes, which authorities saw more fitting for national priorities.

After last week’s accident, tensions among employees have risen. One assembly line machine’s internal ventilation system overheated, causing it to break down. No one noticed, and it went undetected by the sensors. Rumors spread that all the sensors were out of order, despite the administration’s official quality report stating otherwise. Instead, the blame was shifted to the machine operator and his alleged lack of expertise. No one has heard from him since the accident, but some people saw him being transported to the hospital after sustaining severe burns. Although Karla’s colleagues are convinced that urgent machine maintenance is required, they are too scared to notify management. Showing signs of resistance to the general order is problematic.

As Karla smokes, she is surprised by how sunny this winter day is – only two days ago, snow blocked most of the roads, completely isolating entire regions. Scientists frequently express concern that humanity has already lost the war against climate change, which grows worse daily. Planning to call her sister, Karla goes back inside to quickly charge her iPhone 12 using a mechanical power bank. The phone’s battery died five years ago, but having a smartphone at all is a luxury. Semiconductors are a rare treasure to which most commoners don’t have access. Heading back outside, she sees military aircrafts passing over the factory, likely heading to the recent border conflict over water resources. Karla sighs and reminisces about the past, wondering how society ended up here. If she had to pinpoint it, she thinks the war in Ukraine and the resulting trade conflicts were pivotal. She remembers the first winter after the war – energy prices soared, inflation skyrocketed, and basic amenities could no longer be taken for granted. The government quickly stepped in with regulations, introducing household energy budgets which gradually shrunk to the bare minimum. It was a vain attempt to rescue the Mittelstand, which desperately needed power to sustain production. Confronted with this complex situation, governmental economists called for regulations on cross-border trading, insisting that was the only way domestic companies stood a chance. And so a tremendous wave of nationalization was established, particularly among Mittelstand firms. Regardless, many went bankrupt, leading to an even more merciless wave: unemployment. Countless families fled the country in search of better prospects.

Karla’s aunt managed to move her family to France, and Karla’s parents planned to follow suit. However, they waited too long and were stopped by regulations restricting permanent emigration. Karla would love to visit her aunt in France but is aware of the bleak reality – due to the ongoing war, all border crossings have been halted. She has not seen her aunt for nearly two years, and there is nothing to suggest the regulations will be lifted.

The factory bell rings, signaling the end of the break. Karla heaves an exasperated sigh at the thought of the remaining four hours of her shift. She is convinced another assembly line accident will soon occur and wonders who will be the next victim.

In the evening, Karla stretches the walk home for as long as possible – it’s always the highlight of her day, although she dreads being home. The loneliness and silence make her realize that everything she once cared about has already been taken from her. She resents calling this place home – her parents passed away in the small room at the end of the corridor, and she has kept it locked ever since. The doctors failed to identify the virus, and as her parents’ fevers hit a record high, emergency services responded too slowly. Karla represses thoughts of her parents’ illness, although she hears rumors of older neighbors dying from a mysterious disease. Experts on national TV attempt to calm the population by stating that the government is making headway on their research of the novel virus. However, Karla knows the painful truth is that investments are being pumped into warfare, not research. She snaps back to reality as she passes a man chanting the national anthem. Beggars often exhibit national pride in an attempt to gain sympathy. Karla is passing through the homeless ghetto, occupied by people who lost their jobs during the crisis. To escape the cold, they spend their nights in the neighboring underground shelters. Today, Karla is surprised to discover the erection of new refugee camps. She heard on the news about floods in the southwest part of the country which destroyed many neighborhoods, forcing residents into shelters. Apparently, many have been relocated to this city. Karla wonders whether this is a sign that experts expect another natural disaster.

These days, the media tries to only broadcast positive news. The national motto reads, “A united tomorrow is a better day.” Although it’s not explicitly defined, Karla suspects she would be framed as a traitor and imprisoned for posting anything negative online about shelter living conditions. As she exits the ghetto, Karla finally spots a grocery store. Despite her hunger, she hasn’t eaten all day since money is running low at the end of the month. She relishes walking through the aisles and inspecting the products on the shelves, although there is never anything new. Ever since food companies were nationalized, prices have risen and variety has decreased. Karla checks out with her Leberkässemmel, a traditional Bavarian snack, and continues on her way home. She would rather have something else for dinner, but her options are limited. Would Karla’s life be better if she had more choices?