CALL: 1-876-927-1779 | CARIBBEAN PETROLEUM UPDATE : MARCH 2015 
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CARIBBEAN Petroleum Update A Publication of the Caribbean Energy Information System (CEIS)
MARCH 2015 ISSUE
IMPACT OF PETROL LEVY ON SELECTED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN JAMAICA
Oil price risk is the threat that prices may change substantially and unpredictably. Governments of oil producing countries rely heavily on oil production as a revenue source; as such oil prices play a significant role. Also, governments who rely heavily on imported oil are very much cognizant of the deleterious effects volatile oil prices can have on their economy. Governments of oil importing nations (such as the Caribbean) stand to suffer financially when input prices rise (such as oil) without output prices rising accordingly. However, a rise in input prices will more often result in higher output prices to consumers. In light of
the recent plummeting of oil prices, the Jamaican Government has taken the decision to purchase a hedge in the market against the risk of a sharp increase in prices. Also, a petrol tax will be imposed on major consuming petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel which forms a part of the tax measures to finance the hedge mechanism. In this issue of the Petroleum Update we seek to assess the type of hedge and the possible impact on consumers and retailers. Governments have tried to deal with oil price risk exposure in a number of ways such as a stabilization fund as well as hedging. In the
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energy sector where there is uncertainty regarding fluctuations in oil prices, a hedge fund is considered good financial planning. The hedging principle speaks to either locking in the price of a future production or consumption now or insure against large oil price movements. The Jamaican Government took the decision to hedge against an increase in the price of petroleum on the world market. To pay for this mechanism the government announced the imposition of a J$7.00 per litre tax on petroleum products (E10-87, E10-90, Diesel and Ultra Low Sulphur Diesel) which took continued on page 2/
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CALL: 1-876-927-1779 | CARIBBEAN PETROLEUM UPDATE : MARCH 2015
Impac t of a Petrol Lev y on Selec ted Petroleum Produc ts in Jamaica continued from page 1/ effect on March 18, 2015. From a financial aspect hedging against volatile oil prices especially for economies that are heavily dependent on imported petroleum is seen as a good financial planning. However, with the consequence of the hedge being an increase in prices to consumers, questions of its effectiveness will come to mind. How will the hedge work? The Development Bank of Jamaica (DBJ) will be responsible for administering the hedge and will be paid for a hedge contract for 50 per cent of the oil which the country imports ( non-electricity component). If the price of oil moves above the contracted price then the country will get a payment which will allow the country to cushion the effect of the movement to consumers and consequentially protect the balance of payment of the country. On the other hand, if the price of oil is below the contracted price, then similar to an insurance policy the country would have to pay the difference between the lower price and the contracted price.
per litre in the tax on gasoline (Please see Table 1&2 below). Whilst the government have encouraged retailers to not use this as an opportunity to increase retail margins, from a financial standpoint it is no rocket science that the full increase will be passed on to consumers.
Table 1: Average Crude Oil and Retail Prices for Regular Unleaded Gasoline 2014
Period
Average Crude Oil Prices (US$)/bbl
Retail Prices (US$/Litre)
Jan Feb Mar
94.52 100.93 100.76
1.21 1.23 1.25
Table 2: Average Crude Oil and
This hedging strategy is what is referred to as a Fixed Retail Prices for Regular Unleaded Price Hedging Strategy. Should oil prices shift from Gasoline 2015 its present value to say US$90 per barrel, without the hedge the country would have an immediate effect of Average approximately US$500 million on the balance of payCrude Oil ment. Jamaica would have to spend more for oil imRetail Prices Prices ports and that in turn will put enormous pressure on (US$/Litre) (US$)/bbl Period the foreign exchange and exchange rates that would threaten stability. Since crude oil prices are projected Jan 48.94 0.96 to increase in the next several months this strategy alFeb 50.64 0.89 lows for protection from rising oil prices. The added Mar 47.79 0.9 benefits of using this strategy include zero upfront costs and the ability to stabilize budgeting. The new petrol With the imposition of the levy, the price in March levy is projected to yield approximately J$6.4 billion. 2015 for Regular Unleaded Gasoline would increase by 6.7% to US$0.96/litre. The tax on petrol forms part of Retailers have raised concerns regarding a reduction in the tax measures to pay for the hedging against rising sales as a result of the petrol levy. Even more worrisome oil prices. Using the average crude oil price for March for the dealers, is the additional working capital that 2015, say for example, DBJ agrees to enter into a conthey will have to come up with to absorb the immediate tract with a hedge provider to purchase fuel. The conupfront costs required to replace their inventory. Some tract for the hedge specified that the fixed price level dealers will not be able to replace the usual inventory or is set at $47.79 per gallon of fuel with a reference price they will have to seek additional funding to meet the re- of $47.50. If the reference price is higher than the fixed quirements for the new capital outlay. In the same breath, cost, the hedge provider pays DBJ a difference of $0.29 consumers are showing concerns as they brace for higher If the reference price is lower than the fixed cost, then price increases at the pumps as a result of the $7.00 hike DBJ firm must pay the hedge provider the difference.
CALL: 1-876-927-1779 | CARIBBEAN PETROLEUM UPDATE : MARCH 2015 
It is unfortunate that retailers and consumers have to bear the adverse reality of the oil price hedge through increased petrol prices. However, the alternative would prove even more deleterious, as over the years the effects high oil prices have had on business pockets and consumers were far from welcoming. It is important for the business environment to make the sacrifice now when oil prices are low to bring certainty to future prices. What the hedge will do is give us enough time to bring greater efficiency to the organization of our energy sector. Also, it is important to note that Governments hedge against oil prices not to benefit from a change in price, but rather to lock in a price for several months, enabling them to plan and budget the year ahead.
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The short term conditions will allow for stability of oil prices in the long run which in turn should improve a country’s economic system. At a macro level, less vulnerability to volatile oil prices means less pressure on the government in formulating robust national budgets; oil importers face less uncertainty about import costs and fuel subsidy levels and oil exporters will face less volatile revenues. Uncertainty in fuel subsidy levels may be a particularly profound problem in budget constrained developing countries such as countries in the Caribbean that allocate large parts of their budgets to subsidizing fuel. In addition, less vulnerability to oil price risk can facilitate investment planning and consumer decision-making.
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CALL: 1-876-927-1779 | CARIBBEAN PETROLEUM UPDATE : MARCH 2015
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CALL: 1-876-927-1779 | CARIBBEAN PETROLEUM UPDATE : MARCH 2015
Prices at the Pump
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MARCH 2015
Retail prices for Regular Unleaded Gasoline in the fourteen Caribbean countries reviewed at the end of March 2015 showed decreases in prices for three countries Dominica, Monsterrat, St.Kitts and Nevis between 1.8% and 8.5%. Monsterrat saw the highest price decrease of 8.5%. Prices increased in Barbados, Belize, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica and Suriname. Guyana recorded the highest increase of 12%. Prices remained stable in the remaining five countries. The average retail price remained relatively stable when compared to the previous month. .
Unleaded Gasoline: Regular : Average Retail Price – January - March 2015 (US$/Litre)
COUNTRIES ANTIGUA/ BARBUDA BAHAMAS [91 OCT] BARBADOS BELIZE [87 OCT] DOMINICA GRENADA (95 OCT) GUYANA JAMAICA 87 Octane[E10] MONTSERRAT ST. KITTS/ NEVIS ST. LUCIA ST. VINCENT/ GRENADINES SURINAME [95 OCT] TRINIDAD/ TOBAGO [92 OCT] AVERAGE RETAIL PRICES
JAN 1.11 1.13 1.53 1.12 0.92 0.97 1.06 0.96 1.04 0.96 1.21 0.85 0.91 0.42 1.01
FEB 1.11 1.17 1.42 1.06 0.85 0.90 0.83 0.89 1.04 0.96 1.21 0.85 1.10 0.42 0.99
MAR 1.11 1.17 1.43 1.16 0.83 0.95 0.93 0.90 0.95 0.94 1.21 0.85 1.11 0.42 1.00
AVG 1.11 1.16 1.46 1.11 0.87 0.94 0.94 0.92 1.01 0.95 1.21 0.85 1.04 0.42 1.00
NOTE: *US Gallon = 3.785 L *Imperial Gallon = 4.546 L *As at November 1, 2009 MTBE was phased out from all gasoline blends in Jamaica and replaced with 10% Ethanol.
US$/Litre
Comp arative Retail Pump Prices Regular Unleaded Gasoline March vs. 3 Mths Avg (Jan-March 2015) 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00
14 Caribbean Countries
See prices for all products at www.cippet.org
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CALL: 1-876-927-1779 | CARIBBEAN PETROLEUM UPDATE : MARCH 2015
International OIL PRICES
CALL: 1-876-927-1779 | CARIBBEAN PETROLEUM UPDATE : MARCH 2015
US$/Bbl
Average Weekly and Monthly Crude Oil Prices (Jan - Mar 2015)
60 53.44 55 50 50.38 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Period WK1
51.69
Jan-15
WK2
Feb-15
WK3
Mar-15
WK4
MTH AVG
Average Monthly World Crude Oil Prices (2012 - 2014) 110.0
US$/BBL
Analysis of International Crude Oil Prices for the January 2015 to March 2015 period showed an average price of US$47.49/bbl . This average price was 2.4% lower than the avearge price reported in January 2015 and 5.6% lower than the price in February 2015. The highest weekly price seen in March 2015 for the commodity was US$50.38/bbl-reflected in week one while week three accounted for the lowest price of US$44.39/bbl. The slight increase in prices is likely attributed to a reduction in US Shale gas production.
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106.6
106.6
105.8
90.0
70.0
2012
2013
2014
50.0
Period
FEATURED OFFERS: P E TS TATS - t h e Ca r i b b e a n E n e rg y I n fo r m at i o n System (CEIS) primary report of historical annual petroleum energy statistics provided for 18 Caribbean Countries. Included are data on total energy production, consumption, and trade; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, electricity, as well as financial and environmental indicators for over twenty years.
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