III: Risk Matrix

Risk Factor

Communities skeptical of dialogue mechanisms, due to past experiences Communities not serious about gender sensitivity Increasing obstructionism from national leadership Patronage links among traditional and state authorities Local and provincial elections delayed indefinitely Failure on Pillar 3 (community level) undermines Pillar 1 (state level) Remoteness of communities from eastern capitals Multitude of local processes diverts attention on stabilization Disruptive security events Lack of visibility or progress of STAREC initiatives Ties of FARDC soldiers with former and existing armed groups Poor pay / living conditions of soldiers & commanders Mistreatment of soldiers from more senior officers FARDC soldiers ill-equipped Lack of national reform undermines local reform No update of government payroll systems Latent conflict over access to services re-emerges Resistance from non-state agents to reform processes Centralization of power at the national level Patronage links within and between national and local authorities Corruption and clientelism reproduced at all levels No short-term benefits of reform processes Presidential elections delayed indefinitely Individual traditional leaders do not accept reforms Continued macro-economic shocks affect stability Vulnerable groups perceived as having economic privileges Progress against changing gender norms unlikely Women and girls unintentionally put at risk Regressive national policies disrupt progress on gender Culture of impunity around SGBV Disillusionment of women and girls Affected Pillars33

Pillar 1 Pillars 1 and 5 Pillars 1 and 3 Pillar 1 Pillars 1 and 3 Pillars 1 and 3 Pillars 1, 3, 4 Pillar 1 Pillars 1, 2 Pillar 1 Pillar 2 Pillar 2 Pillar 2 Pillar 2 Pillar 2 Pillar 3, 4 Pillar 3 Pillar 3 Pillar 3 Pillar 3 Pillar 3 Pillar 3 Pillar 3 Pillars 3, 4 Pillar 4 Pillar 4 Pillar 5 Pillar 5 Pillar 5 Pillar 5 Pillar 5 Score

Negligible Severe Severe Medium Severe Severe Medium Negligible Severe Medium Severe Severe Medium Medium Medium Medium Negligible Medium Severe Severe Medium Severe Severe Medium Medium Medium Severe Medium Severe Severe Medium

33. This denotes the pillar(s) under which ISSSS results would be significantly derailed should the risk factor materialise, rather than capturing all of the pillars that would be affected by a given risk.