CFA operations in a climate-challenged world

How climate change will impact CFA operations

Scientific evidence for human-induced climate change is now regarded as unequivocal by the peak international body overseeing climate research. The Bureau of Meteorology’s State of the Climate report shows the local facts and figures around these changes. This includes that Australia has warmed on average 1.44°C since national records began in 1910. This is leading to an increase in the number of hot days and the occurrence of extreme heatwaves. More recently, records for Victoria show that winter rainfall has fallen by about 12 per cent in less than 30 years. These climate changes are likely to cause more extreme weather and alter the frequency and intensity of storms, floods, heatwaves and fires. Scientists in CFA’s Research and Development team have been working to better understand how fire weather has changed over the past 40 years and how it might change in the future. This work is important for CFA because it will help us adapt the ways we operate and improve the services we offer to members and communities in response to climate change. The team has found that climate change is increasing the frequency, severity and timing of dangerous bushfire weather conditions in south-east Australia, especially during spring and summer. Also, on average, the fire season nowadays starts a month earlier that it did in the 1990s. Back then, there were only two-thirds the number of days that had ‘Very High’ fire danger (those with an FFDI (Forest Fire Danger Index) greater than 25) compared with today. In short, fire seasons are now longer and more extreme than they were a few decades ago. Models of future climate show that this pattern is likely to continue – conditions will be hotter, drier and with more extreme weather events. This is expected to lead to worse fire seasons, including more frequent large fires like the 2019-20 season and more extreme fire behaviour (including an increase in fire-generated thunderstorms). This will have flow-on effects on the safety of community members and firefighters. According to the worst-case climate change scenario, average summer fire danger will increase across Victoria between 10 and 20 per cent in FFDI by 2100. This means the current highest average FFDI of approximately 75 in the west and north-west will be become 100 and in the south-east the current highest average FFDI will increase from mid-to high 30s to above 50. Along with this, we expect to see a doubling of the number of days with ‘Very High’ fire danger in the north-west and central areas of the state, and a tripling in the number of days in the east of the state.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON FIRE RISK AND EMERGENCY SERVICES

It’s clear that CFA will have to deal with more extreme, more frequent and longer fire seasons in the future. This will have flow-on impacts on firefighter safety and the services we deliver unless we adapt and respond to the changes. A recent report from AFAC described many ways climate change is likely to impact fire and other emergency services including: • increasing exposure and vulnerabilities of communities to hazards, including multiple stressors and shocks at the same time (which can become disasters) • increasing costs of disasters, impacts on infrastructure • increasing pressure on resourcing, responders and capabilities due to more frequent and severe weather events • increasing health and safety risks for staff and volunteers, including heat stress, fatigue and mental health • increasing risk of emergency services being sued • failure of building codes and land use planning to respond to what’s needed to keep the community safe and happy • supply chain vulnerabilities preventing emergency services from getting the equipment and support when needed • damage to ecosystems through more frequent incidents and the need to manage fire risk. Some of the ways CFA may need to adapt include: • increasing our firefighting capability and capacity • ensuring our members are equipped and safe to endure more extreme conditions • inventing improved ways to deliver our services so we continue to effectively protect lives and properties • increasing our focus on mitigating the risk through community actions and fuel management. Increasingly, both the private and public sectors are looking for leadership, knowledge and advice regarding climate change risk.

How climate change will impact CFA operations

NEXT STEPS

CFA recognises that the changing climate is a major risk to Victorian communities and the organisation. It needs to understand the possible impacts on operations, services, infrastructure and our members. In response, CFA is conducting a risk assessment to identify challenges and ways to solve them through adaptation and mitigation. This process will also help decisions about CFA climate change policies and associated business rules. Additionally, the Research and Development team is leading two major projects:

1. How will bushfire management need to adapt to climate change in terms of resourcing?

This project will combine historic Victorian fire response data with weather information to determine likely resource requirements for different levels of fire danger. It will then use projections of fire weather under climate change to understand future requirements. The outcomes of this research will help determine the future operational capacity and capability required to continue to deliver

CFA services.

2. How will the Victoria fire regimes change as a result of climate change?

This project will combine current knowledge, dynamic vegetation modelling and climate change projections specific to Victoria to understand the relationships between fire, climate and vegetation. It will look at how forests and grasslands are expected to change under hotter and drier conditions, and then couple this with models of fire. This will help us to understand what frequency, size and severity of fires to expect in the future. The project’s findings and outputs will be used to make longer-term strategic decisions around: • fuel reduction practices due to a better understanding of how fuel, fire risk and weather are linked • identification and management of ecosystems and threatened species that are at risk of extinction • planning for resources and infrastructure to be prepared for the fire danger of the future. If you have any questions about climate change and the research presented here, contact bushfire-research@cfa.vic.gov.au

STORY SARAH HARRIS

Multi-model mean of the projected increase in the number of days FFDI>25 for Melbourne Airport to 2100 for the high emission scenario

Number of days with FFDI > 25

25

20

15

10

References AFAC Climate Change and Disasters: Key Messages and Resources November 2020 (https://knowledge.aidr. org.au/media/8452/ afac_climate-changekey-messages-andresources_oct-2020.pdf) Clark Scott, Mills Graham, Brown Timothy, Harris Sarah, Abatzoglou John T. (2021) Downscaled GCM climate projections of fire weather over Victoria, Australia. Part 2: a multi-model ensemble of 21st century trends. International Journal of Wildland Fire (https://doi. org/10.1071/WF20175) Bureau of Meteorology (2020) State of the Climate 2020 (bom.gov. au/state-of-the-climate/ documents/State-of-theClimate-2020.pdf)