The Chaikin Approach To Finding Winners and Avoiding Landmines
Eric Chaikin Director of User Experience / Product Strategy
June 18, 2014 Š 2014 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Welcome
Chaikin Analytics for Desktop Š 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
What We’ll Cover
1. Welcome new clients
2. Review the Chaikin approach
3. FAQs 4. What we’re working on 5. Q&A © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Chaikin Power Gauge Clear summary of a stock's potential – with a record of success
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Financials
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Earnings
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Technicals
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Experts
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Performance Results Trailing 12 mos vs. S&P 500
Universe
Annualized Return
SP500 Index
+18.3%
Power Gauge Very Bullish
+26.52%
Period: Jun 2013-Jun 2014 - annualized performance including dividends, monthly rebalancing. Results look at ‘raw’ Power Gauge rating without technical overlay. SP500 is index is cap-weighted.
Very Bullish & Bullish stocks outperforming the S&P. Very Bearish & Bearish stocks underperforming. Note: performance of Bearish stocks this year is higher than usual; expect retracement 5 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Chaikin Approach: Classic Bulls 1. Very Bullish/Bullish Power Gauge 2. Above rising long-term trend 3. Strong Money Flow persistency 4. Strong Relative Strength 5: Timing: Signals, OB/OS, Support levels
Confirm w/ Strong Industry Group Š 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Bullish Examples
Let’s go to the Desktop… Strong Industries: Oil: HES etc Banks: BMA, BMO, TD !
Alcoa, AAPL, Allergan (takeover bid) Ryder, PL, Trinity
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Chaikin Approach: Classic Bears 1. Very Bearish/Bearish Power Gauge 2. Below falling long-term trend 3. Weak Money Flow persistency 4. Weak Relative Strength 5: Timing: Signals, OB/OS, Resistance levels
Confirm w/ Weak Industry Group Š 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Bearish Examples
Let’s go to the Desktop… SPLK COH ATHN LULU LNKD HD WF
Some are pure shorts, some avoiding landmines - We won’t always find exact tops - But we will often keep you from greater harm - Playing defense just as important to total return
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
“Personality Changes” - When to Exit
Examples in the Desktop… CMCSA KMP
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
FAQs -
Factor questions -
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Overlay questions -
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Analyst Ratings Technical factors vs Technical Rating Industry Strength
Neutral+/- meaning Why Bullish below Trend? !
Chaikin Money Flow -
Is negative money flow a ‘dealbreaker’? Not always Persistency: Strong persistency can confirm a buy Very weak = deal-breaker Short-Term - Some regions of red expected on as pullbacks; not a deal breaker - Strong non-confirmation of a rally: warning sign © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
FAQs
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Putting on Options positions -
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Chaikin helps w selecting the underlies and timing Stay in-the-money and leave 3-6 months careful of very ST positions
Model Portfolio -
It’s a published rule-based portfolio; not a managed portfolio Russell 1000 w/ a low Price-to-Book & Very Bullish overlay Neutrals remain; Bearish replaced weekly (only 1 so far) Similar to how we build our NASDAQ/Chaikin Indices Doubled the S&P so far in 2014
Š 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
What We’re Up To ! -
Better clarity -
In-app help, better explanation of Ratings, Charts, Indicators, Signals, etc
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Easier access to Great Ideas -
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Filtering the low-quality names Clarifying the “Best of the Best” Make them easier to find; less hunting and pecking Pushing them to the top in an easy-to-scan view
ETF Ratings © 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
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Š 2013 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.