Cov e r Sto ry
Building Resilience Paula Cogan, President, Cork Chamber explores the junctures of moving through this crisis and beyond, how we need to take onboard and apply the learnings from the past, to grow our national economic and social resilience in the decades ahead. It’s fair to say the eye of this storm will be nothing like we’ve weathered before. We are in unprecedented times for our public health services and personnel, for business, for communities, for families and for those unemployed or facing unemployment, or reduced earnings due to this crisis. There is a difficult road ahead. Though interestingly, if we have learned anything about ourselves over the past few weeks it’s that we are resilient, we have strong communities.
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If we have learned anything about ourselves over the past few weeks it’s that we are resilient, we have strong communities.
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What happens as we move through this crisis and beyond will be our next great test. At Cork Chamber, we are initiating a comprehensive new Sustainable Cork Programme which specifically tailors our activities to support our members in building a culture of safety, confidence and trust during these unforeseen circumstances and to set forth a path to recovery. The Sustainable Cork Programme will harness the knowledge and insights of the people and companies of Cork. We must do all that we can now to ensure that as many people as
possible avoid unemployment, that jobs are protected, that businesses are supported, that the construction of housing and apartments recommences appropriately, that commitment remains to our transport and infrastructure projects and services, and that the growth of sustainable thriving communities is prioritised even more on the national agenda. If we don’t, we will face the reality of navigating a major public health crisis, only to be met with the full impact of an economic crisis. We must take on board the lessons from the last recessionary period in Ireland where investment in public transport, infrastructure, essential amenities and services became a nice to have instead of a must have. This is not where we want to be in another 10 years. It’s hard to believe that it was only a few weeks ago that the Covid-19 threat to Ireland moved from potential to imminent and is now a very real part of our daily lives. At this time, the Economic and Social Research Institute published its quarterly report, basing its predictions for unemployment on a 12-week pandemic scenario. Though hard to accurately predict due to the lightning fast pace of the evolving situation and the uncertainty around the 12-week duration, this scenario presents us nationally with a stark reality. Predicting a 7% contraction of the domestic economy, with a rise in unemployment nationally from 4.8 percent in February to 18% percent in Q2 2020. Unemployment will be likely to drop back to
12.5% by the end of the year. Even more recently the Central Bank, in its latest quarterly outlook, costed the current Government measures at €8.2billion, estimating unemployment as likely to reach 25% by the summer as a result of the economic shock to output and productivity, while GDP is on course to drop back by 8.3% for 2020. Government recently announced a revision to the total cost of state income and wages supports up from the previous estimate of €3.7bn to €4.5bn, all based on a 12-week period, with nearly 800,000 people now totally relying on income from the state, bringing it to over one million those who are either fully or partially dependent on state supports for income. It’s hard to see where this might land right now, and while stark these are the measures that must be taken to give businesses and communities a fighting chance. While nationally we face into the eye of a public health emergency, one which remains the foremost priority, it is crucial too that we work now to proactively take all steps to alleviate the societal and economic pressures and effectively manage the likely aftermath. We must take the learnings from the 2007 - 2008 global financial crisis and the years of austerity that followed, and avoid repeating the measures that stifled economic, community and social resilience.
