Take care of the elderly Lessons of the 2003 heat-wave
According to the Spanish climato‑ logist Ricardo García-Herrera, the main answer to adapt to more extreme tempera‑ tures is a social answer. “Take care of the elderly.”
mer temperature averages will also adapt more easily to extreme temperatures as a result of climate change. This is clearly illustrated if we look at the relation between high temperatures and death mortality. In Madrid daily mortality starts to increase when temperature rises above 36.5˚, in Seville we see an effect at 41˚, but in Lisbon daily mortality is already on the rise at 34˚. In Lisbon more people died than in Madrid.
With other scientists, you have done research on extreme temperatures and Iberian mortality; what is your main conclusion? “During heat-waves like the one in 2003, people who are accustomed to high temperatures suffer less than people who aren’t. So, those who are used to high sum-
What has Europe learned from the 2003 heat-wave? “Nowadays, most countries have an early warning system. If meteorological institutions foresee a heat-wave, the general public is informed, while regional governments and hospitals take precautions. We have also learned that taking care of the elderly is the most effective measure to re-
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Michel Verschoor
What else influences heat related mortality figures in Spain and Portugal? “Demographics and different socio-economic factors. If a country has a relatively high number of retired elderly, more people suffer from extreme temperatures; inhabitants of more prosperous regions can afford domestic air-conditioning, which reduces mortality rates.”
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duce mortality. If there is a clear picture of where and under what conditions elderly live, health services can take care of isolated elderly who are easily at risk during a heat-wave.” And the general public, what can they do? “Take care of the elderly. Countries or cultures with strong family ties face less temperature mortality that individualized societies. The Latino community in Chicago suffered less during the 1995 heat-wave, because they very well looked after each other. One would think that Spain and Portugal are still quite family oriented, but at least in large Spanish cities, more and more people live on their own. As people do in most North European countries.” What about technical solutions? “The obvious answer is that everyone should have a system of domestic airconditioning. But from a climatologically point of view that’s a response in the wrong direction. More air conditioning units use more energy, producing even more C02-emmissions. Different construction methods could perhaps be an option, but nowadays we use the same brick everywhere. Rural communities in central and southern Spain used to build strong, thick walls of at least 25 cm to keep both the heat and the cold out. I don’t think it’s realistic to propose to restart building in the old fashioned manner. No, just pay attention to the elderly. City and regional governments have to identify where and how they live, and social and health services have to give specific support under extreme weather conditions. That’s quite a mission for most European countries since demographic scenarios show that the proportion of elderly will increase for a number of decades.” More information Ricardo Garciá-Herrera, Facultad de Físicas, Universidad Complutense, Madrid. +34 913944490 rgarciah@fis.ucm.es
Heat-wave: a silent killer
A hot year in Iberia Extensive forest fires hit Portugal in August 2003. Five per cent of the countryside and ten per cent of the forests (215,000 hectares) were destroyed, an estimated 4,000 square kilometres. Eighteen people died in the fires and there were around 2000 heat related deaths. Temperatures reached as high as 48 °C (118 °F) in Amareleja. The first of August was the hottest day in centuries, with night temperatures well above 30 °C. In Spain several thousands died and temperature records were broken in various cities, including 45.1 °C in Jerez, with the heat-wave being more felt in typically cooler northern Spain. Thus (record) temperatures were reached in Gerona 38.8 °, in San Sebastian 36 °C and in Sevilla 45.2 °C. Source: Wikipedia, among others.
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At least 35,000 Europeans died as a result of the record heat-wave in August 2003. That month was the hottest august on record in the northern hemisphere. France suffered the worst losses, with almost 15,000 casualties. Heatwaves are a silent killer, affecting the elderly, the very young and the chronically ill. With more extreme weather events lying ahead, the annual temperature mortality is likely to increase. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predict more extreme weather. By the end of this century, the average world temperature might climb by 1.4 to 5.8 °C. Regional scenarios for the Mediterranean region indicate a non-constant increase of temperatures throughout the year. In the report ‘Extreme summer temperatures in Iberia: health impacts an associated synoptic conditions’, published by Ricardo Garcia-Herrera and Ricardo Trigo, a large increase in summer temperatures is predicted for the Iberian peninsula. In Lisbon the average summertemperature may rise from 28˚ to as high as 34˚, with the frequency of hot days (>35˚) increasing from the current figure of 5 to roughly 50 per year. All other European countries will have to deal with more heat as well. “It is expected that under all scenarios temperature mortality might increase, though acclimatization will reduce the burden”.
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