Wind Turbine Futures by Charles Hunter

Strategic Plan for U.S. Wind Turbine Development by 2030 The Winds of Change Christopher Charnock Charles Hunter Andrew Prombo Brian Rockwell Kama Svoboda April 27, 2012

Table of Contents Page Executive Summary------------------------------------------------------------------------------2 Electricity Demand Projections for 2030------------------------------------------------------4 Transmission and Storage------------------------------------------------------------------------5 Wind Energy Technology â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Past, Present and Future----------------------------------------10 Public Policy Considerations--------------------------------------------------------------------19 Economics of Wind Power-----------------------------------------------------------------------23 Environmental Considerations-------------------------------------------------------------------28 Possible Scenarios for 2030----------------------------------------------------------------------35 Conclusion and Plan of Action-------------------------------------------------------------------38 Appendix A: Figures and Tables-----------------------------------------------------------------40

Executive Summary The projection of wind powerâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s role in the year 2030 requires a meshing of economic, political, technological and social developments over the next twenty years. The primary focus of this report is to give an extensive background into each of these dynamics that contributes to the evolution of wind power, and suggest a plan of action for the United States moving forward. In terms of transmission, wind energy requires America to update its grid to meet the demands of its populace with intermittent power. Since power must be transmitted over such long distances, high voltage direct current lines must be developed. In addition, smart-grid technology will create a more efficient system while also decreasing peak demand. A method of storing energy able to be applied on the national scale is necessary to disburse energy at times the wind is not blowing and create a reserve of power when demand is low. With the, hopefully indefinite, renewal of the PTC there is no doubt that there will be great growth in the wind energy sector. Along with this growth comes the revenue to fund advancements in all aspects of the wind turbine. With the PTC in recent years, the technology powering wind turbines has consistently improved along with the size of the turbine and the rate at which they are produced. In this regard it is predicted that there will be increases in the size of wind turbines, generation capabilities and efficiencies through 2030. In addition, the development of new composites will affect the strength and lifetime of wind turbines. The environmental impact of wind energy is minor when compared to traditional energy sources today. When considering wind turbine technology one must keep in mind the environmental impacts a turbine may have. The environmental section covers: ideal locations and spacing for land usage, wind turbine effects on climate, and wildlife and consumer impact. Onshore is currently the most viable option with the Midwestern regions having the largest wind

potential. Challenges and costs of offshore wind turbines must be mitigated before any feasible options will be constructed. Wind turbine spacing directly impacts the power output of each turbine in the wind farm. Wildlife and consumer considerations will be negated by 2030, but cannot be overlooked. Consumer and wildlife agencies can shut down wind turbine projects with enough political power. Overall, carbon emissions for the entire life cycle of a wind turbine are significantly less than those of coal, nuclear, and oil. By 2030 wind turbines will continue to be an environmentally friendly energy source. The economic feasibility of wind power in 2030 will simply come down to the extension or elimination of the Production Tax Credit for wind power. The extension of the PTC will allow for continued domestic growth in the industry while any stoppage will cause instant stagnation in the industry. Currently with the PTC, wind power is able to compete with all forms of energy besides natural gas. Moving forward into 2030, natural gas may even be overcome by wind energy if the conditions are correct. Wind energy holds a promising future economically as long as the political side holds its end of the bargain. As a plan of action for the year 2030, a goal of 15% market share in the United States electricity generation is a lofty but attainable goal. Clearly, all of the factors need to be in sync for wind energy in order for it to be successful. Transmission lines and the grid need to be updated to allow for the increased wind capacity in remote locations. Technology needs to be continually developed to improve the efficiencies and cost of new wind turbines. All of these steps along the way will not be possible without capital. This is where government intervention needs to take place to continually subsidize the wind industry. Although highly optimistic, cool minds should prevail in Washington and the PTC should be renewed to help play a role in ending the energy crisis.

Electricity Demand Projections for 2030 Before the role of wind power in the United States is analyzed, it is important to know the amount of electricity that will need to be generated in the year 2030. This will then reveal how much more capacity needs to be added which could possibly be met by wind power. Although electricity consumption worldwide is expected to grow rapidly, U.S. electricity generation will increase at only a modest rate. The United States is fully developed in economic terms, and the growth rate of electricity has steadily declined over the past century. This can be attributed to higher prices of electricity, structural changes in the economy, and improved efficiency in utilizing and transmitting the electricity. According to the 2012 EIA projections, total electricity consumption in the United States is expected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.8% until 2035.1 This increase of 0.8% annually will result in an increased electricity capacity of 250 GWe. With the current installed wind energy capacity at only 47 GWe, there is large room for improvements by the year 2030. The EIA projects that the 33 percent of the overall growth to meet this energy need will come from renewable, including wind, solar and biofuels. All of these projections for electricity generation and the role of renewables assume that federal subsidies are not renewed. The source of this enormous amount of power to bridge the gap will depend on the politics and economics of the coming years. Will natural gas remain cheap and cause developers to build natural gas combined cycle plants, continuing to push out renewable sources of energy? Will a carbon tax be enforced to halt coal-fired power plant construction and push the energy towards wind power? Will the production tax credit be renewed for solar and wind power? No definitive answer can be given for any of these questions, but they will be analyzed in the 1

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following sections. The increasing electricity demand needs to be met somehow, and more specifically, the impact of wind energy in meeting this demand will be analyzed in the following sections.

Transmission and Storage Supposing America embraced wind energy fully tomorrow and within five years could generate half of its demand, our current infrastructure would not be able to support the change. In part this is due to an outdated power grid that has not kept up with the modern world and technology as well as the intermittent nature of wind power versus the relatively stable power production from fossil fuels. In addition, America would face issues of power transmission as well as power storage or parts of the nation would suffer from incredibly uneconomical prices on their energy consumption based upon wind distribution and consistency in different sections of the country. Thus, three large barriers to wind power production are solving the problem of transmission, adopting smart-grid technology, and solving issues with power storage. In addressing the problem of transmission you first must observe where wind energy is feasible; for America, wind energy only truly makes sense along the coasts and in the central landmass for only there is the wind strong enough and consistent enough to warrant construction of a wind farm. In distributing the power, therefore, there are two distinct hurdles: land-based transmission and offshore transmission, with innovation in offshore transmission of particular concern due to the vast amounts of potential wind power along the coasts. However, to reach different regions in need of power, it's necessary to bride incredibly long distances in land. Despite transmission historically being conducted in Alternating Current (AC), the recent

champion of power transmission, particularly with wind, has been High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC). AC transmission should not be abandoned, though, because it does have many merits. Perhaps chief among these is the ease with which it can be stepped up to a much higher voltage at a great efficiency level, leading to only small amounts of power loss. DC transmission, alternatively, has power loss issues with conductors. Using the two systems together, however, introduces many benefits into our transmission network. Two inventions enabled DC transmission to take a foothold: mercury arc rectifiers and thyristor valves, which can be used to make converters for AC to DC2. Given these breakthroughs, the argument for HVDC power is strong. Given a long enough distance (called the â&#x20AC;&#x153;break-even distanceâ&#x20AC;?), the initial investment cost of HVDC transmission lines are significantly lower than those of AC transmission lines despite needing AC-to-DC converters at terminal stations. Additionally, the break-even distance is considerably shorter for submarine cables. Thus, long distance water crossing must be done with HVDC cables. Not counting terminal station losses, comparative power capacity AC lines have higher losses associated with them than with HVDC while HVDC also allows asynchronous connection as it does not have to match frequency or phase. HVDC offers a large degree of controllability of the active power in the link and limits the short circuit currents found in AC system featuring interconnection1. Finally, existing AC lines can be converted at a low cost to transmit DC power. These benefits only truly apply at large distances and high voltages, though, as well as HVDC having higher costs associated with tapping the line3. HVDC towers are also much

2 Transmission and Distribution Networks: AC versus DC, University of the Basque Country 3 HVDC and FACTS, ABB Grid Systems

larger. Distances must reach over 700 km while voltages should be in the range of 800kV for 5000MW to 7000+ MW. Given these factors, though, Europe and China are both quickly adopting HVDC lines being built by Siemens and ABB. Economically, it makes sense for the US to adopt HVDC lines for use with our expanding wind power portfolio. Relying on wind power necessitates long distance transmission lines to spread out the power generated in one specific part of the country. Additionally, offshore wind farms would require HVDC lines to operate efficiently. Pursuing wind power without pursuing HVDC is not an option. With population rising as well as increased demand for electricity, simply adding HVDC lines to transmit power won't be enough. Revolutionizing the power system with â&#x20AC;&#x153;smart gridâ&#x20AC;? technology will allow us to reap large benefits and make our use of wind energy much more efficient. Smart grid technology at its most basic simply means that, nationally, there will be monitoring, analysis, control, and communication capabilities at the different distribution points on the grid to enable smarter use of the electricity being transmitted4. This also has the benefit of giving the consumers the ability to use their energy much more economically. Smart grid has a champion in that it enables utilities to adopt time-varying prices â&#x20AC;&#x201C; that is, consumers will be able to see the processed data of the current energy demand and the cost of operating during certain time periods, thus allowing them to shift their high-intensity loads5. Just having residential districts spread out their energy demand during non-peak hours will help the grid considerably. Causing a change in the behaviors and mindsets of energy use would be an accomplishment in and of itself, but the smart grid would be able to offer much more.

4 www.neme.org/gov/energy/smartgrid 5 www.emeter.com/smart-grid-watch

With the wealth of information available, more “smart” technology, such as those with automated response like thermostats, can be used to save money by operating within certain ranges when price becomes economical. The idea of these devices is to use a “set and forget” mentality, set up the device so that it acts and operates under specific conditions pertaining to cost and load demand. Due to the intermittent nature of wind, electrical energy costs will never be as consistent as there are with the burning of fossil fuels, so using these automated devices will help take the burden off of consumers to self-regulate their energy use according to demand prices. The benefits apply to more than just the commercial sector but the utility sector as well. With pinpoint information about load centers and energy availability, grid operators will be able to respond quickly and accurately to levels of input wind energy and the amount of absorption they will be taking from that wind energy compared to their other forms of energy. This will required a decision engine that can provide the most economic power and stabilize the grid by calculating from the prices from pre-set formulas of available energy, which IBM plans to implement with its ILOG software6. The research has already been conducted on how competitive pricing on electricity will be with a paper from the Journal of Regulatory Economics. The paper outlines how dynamic pricing and priority service will be able to foster efficient risk management within a twosettlement system7. In this way, the consumer would be engaged and helping America shift towards the smart grid while still saving money. The argument the paper uses as its main premise is that you cannot “liberate the market and expect that consumers will automatically switch over in pursuit of economic efficiency”, countering that consumers avoid complicated

6 IBM “A Smarter Planet” 7 “Competitive electricity markets with consumer subscription service in a smart grid”

products but do flock to economic incentives6. From there the author outlines eight propositions with mathematical basis to illustrate his point and prove that his model would work. A problem still remaining is the issue of a national grid-level storage mechanism for energy. With fossil fuels this isn't as much of an issue, but the ability to store energy on a large scale from wind production would allow utilities to mitigate almost completely the intermittent nature of wind. We have various options available to us currently and a new likely method about to be adopted, but America will have to develop new technology to make this truly viable. The current option used almost exclusively in America is pumped-storage hydroelectricity. This method has about a70% efficiency and uses off-demand electricity to operate pumps to move water in a storage facility to a higher elevation. Later, this energy can be reached through releasing the water to turn turbines and generate electricity to offset demand during peak times. Unfortunately this particular method, while widely employed, has certain disadvantages in that it requires a large body of water and the requisite land to go along with it. This takes up a large quantity of space and has many of the same problems associated with it as hydroelectric dams. The relatively new player in the field is Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES), which uses a similar concept to pumped-storage hydroelectric but with compressed air either in underground storage or in above-ground holding tanks8. While operating at comparable, if not greater, efficiencies to pumped-storage hydroelectricity, it is far more cost effective to implement and does not require the same land and resource investment. This method will likely quickly begin to replace pumped-storage hydroelectric as the main method of storing energy with wind. However, the Office of Electricity Delivery & Energy Reliability (OE) is pursuing this in conjunction with Na batteries, Li-ion batteries, and superconducting magnetic energy storage 8 New Utility Scale CAES Technology: Performance and Benefits (including CO2 benefits)

(SMES)9. Near-term goals plan on reducing the cost of energy storage by 30%, a goal that combines well with the advent of wind energy as a major component of our power transmission system. Li-ion batteries and lead-carbon batteries, originally developed for vehicular purposes, OE now wants to push for grid-storage purposes. Unfortunately, they need to work out issues with lifetime and reliability first. Another inhibiting factor is despite their inception in the US, these technologies have remained immature nationally while being developed and researched more fully on the international level. The sum of the game lies in this: the energy demands of the future require more than just developing more sources of energy but needs co-development of new ways of transmitting and storing the energy generated. There are several technologies within our immediate grasp that can be used for these purposes, most of them economical and many of them necessary. In many cases, these are upgrades to systems that will need revitalization regardless, such as grid-system which needs renovation. While this is going underway, it would be wise and economical to update and add in long distance HVDC transmission lines and immediately begin a plan for implementing a smart grid in America. Energy storage should be a concern, with wind and other renewable resources turning into a priority and necessity rather than a convenience.

Wind Energy Technology â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Past, Present and Future Wind turbines have been evolving incredibly rapidly since the 1980â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s when wind energy became an effective solution to the energy crisis. The process of capturing wind energy to convert to electricity has long since been known, beginning back in the late 1800â&#x20AC;&#x2122;s and continuing to present day where a single wind turbine can now generate upwards of 7 MW.

9 Energy Storage Program Planning Document

Although the idea has not changed, the structure and manufacturing process of the wind turbine has developed greatly since the first one in 1888. The electricity generating wind turbine first came to fruition in Cleveland, Ohio in 1888 by Charles F. Brush. Brush’s creation was a postmill with a multiple-bladed “picket-fence” rotor 17 meters in diameter with a step up gearbox with a 50:1 ratio to turn a DC generator at 500 rpm to produce 12 kW. The dynamo was connected to 408 batteries in his basement which, in turn, illuminated multiple lamps and operated a few electric motors and two arc lights. Brush’s windmill lasted approximately 20 years. Although wind turbines were used for personal electricity generation the technology was inspirational and eventually connected to the grid in order to generate power for many people. In 1941 the world’s first MW size wind turbine was connected to the local grid on Grandpa’s Knob in Castleton, Vermont. Wind turbine development since the Brush Windmill developed into a truss-style tower with fewer, more aerodynamic, blades throughout the 20th century and in the late 1970’s became a tapering tower with 3 blades attached to a rotor much like the wind turbines in operation today. It was during this energy crisis that wind energy was popularized and would become a competing form of energy in the search for clean, renewable forms of energy. During this time tax credits and favorable federal regulations made it possible for over 4,500 small, 1-25 kW, utility-intertied wind systems to be installed at individual homes. This newly sparked interest in wind energy set the trend for the rapid evolution of the wind turbine throughout the late 20th and early 21st century. Today, wind turbines can generate much more electricity than in the early 1900’s. The machines are more robust, including larger (height and diameter) towers, longer blades and more advanced drive trains. For example, the largest wind turbine currently in operation is Enercon’s

E-126 with a capacity of 7.58 MW. The E-126 possesses a 126 meter rotor diameter, a total height of 198 meters and a total weight of approximately 6000 tons. The E-126 is found in the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s current largest wind farm, the Markbygden Wind Farm in Sweden. This wind farm contains 1,101 turbines covering 500 km2 which generate 4,000 MW resulting in an annual yield of up to 12 TWh. Today a wind turbine can be broken down into the following components: foundation, tower, nacelle and rotor/blades. The tower is mounted to the ground and holds up what is called a nacelle, which houses the drive train and electronics. The rotor is connected to the nacelle with a coupler and the three blades are attached to the rotor with the ability to rotate to achieve necessary pitch. The drive train consists of a connecting shaft from the rotor, gearbox and generator, see Figure 1 for more detail. Each component of the wind turbine employs an important function but is greatly influenced by the developing technologies regarding their function and materials. This being the case, it is important to understand what makes up each component and how it contributes to the final product in order to better understand how each component will develop in the next few decades. The first component to consider is the foundation and tower combination. Laying the foundation appropriately is critical in the installation of a stable wind turbine. Following the foundation, the segmented tower is installed piece by piece. These tubular towers, which are constructed in segments off-site, are usually made from steel and taper from foundation to nacelle, both in wall thickness and diameter. Another, less prevalent, form of support structure involves concrete towers and concrete bases with steel upper sections and lattice towers. The tower height varies with the size of the turbine which depends on the location. Towers can

represent up to 65% (seen in Table 1 in Appendix A) of the total turbine weight which makes low cost materials ideal for tower construction. Some towers in Europe are now being constructed using pre-stressed concrete (Table 2). Concrete towers have the potential to reduce the cost but may involve nearly as much steel in the reinforcing bars as would be necessary in a conventional steel tower. Next in the assembly is the nacelle which houses the drive train. The nacelle is fastened to the top of the tower and contains a gearbox, generator, coupler and brake, and all of the electronic components necessary for control. Additionally, the nacelle houses the pitch and yaw drives, shafts, bearings and oil pumps and coolers. Due to the large amount of number of components it typically weighs around 22,000 pounds and would be an ideal area for simplification and innovation. Generally, the nacelle is attached to the rotor by the coupler with a low speed shaft connected to the gearbox which increases the angular velocity. As seen in Figure 1, the gearbox interfaces with the generator which produces the electrical power. Most commercial generators today contain either an induction generator, a permanent magnet generator, or a brushed DC motor (most commonly used for home-built wind turbines). Of these, the permanent magnet alternator is most common today in commercial wind turbines. This generator consists of one set of electromagnets, which are typically attached to the stator, and one set of permanent magnets, mounted on the rotor. The technology for the PM motor has advanced greatly in recent years, largely due to the creation of rare earth magnets leading to an efficiency range of 60-95% (but usually around 70%). Attached to the nacelle is the rotor/blades system which, generally, is comprised of a three bladed rotor that allows for the blade pitch to be varied continuously under active control. Although various other materials have been tried, most rotor blades in use today are built from

glass-fiber reinforced plastic (GRP). Testing the rotor blades prior to installation is imperative so the methods have improved significantly and will continue to. Other components on the wind turbine include motors to control yaw, an anemometer and a wind vane. These parts are less significant than those directly involved in the energy conversion and little will be made to advance these technologies relative to the rotors and drive train. Technology advancements are not only needed in the turbine components themselves, but also in the processes which create them and bring them to fruition. Regarding manufacture and installation, there are three main components to a wind turbine which are the tower, the nacelle and the rotor/blade system. Firstly, the site must be prepared by creating roads and laying the foundation for the wind turbine. The tower is manufactured in segments off-site in the factory but then assembled on-site despite its large size. The nacelle is both manufactured and assembled off-site in a factory due to the complexity of its parts and its relatively small volume compared to the tower and rotor/blade system. Finally, the rotor and blades are manufactured in a factory and delivered separately. They are assembled on site and installed simultaneously with the utility box which connects the wind turbine to the grid. The manufacturing and installation process can take anywhere from 6 months to over a year depending on the size of the turbine and its final location. The costs for a commercial scale wind turbine in 2007 ranged from $1.2 million to $2.6 million per MW of nameplate capacity installed. This average has dropped to just below $1.36 million per MW in 201110. Operation and maintenance technologies are crucial in the efficiency of a wind turbine as well. Commercial scale wind turbines today have a predicted lifetime of 20-30 years. Being a relatively new technology, it is still unknown whether or not that lifetime is accurate. Regardless, 10

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the generation capacity while in use is more immediately important. Some of the generation capabilities of today’s wind turbines are: 1. Small (≤10 kW) – homes, farms, remote applications (battery charging, water pumping telecom sites) 2. Intermediate (10 – 500 kW) – village power, hybrid systems, distributed power 3. Large (500 kW – 10 MW) – distributed power, onshore/offshore wind farms The total cost of operation and maintenance processes typically decreases from small to larger scale wind turbines. This is important because operation and maintenance can easily make up to 20-25% of the total cost per kWh produced of the life-time of the turbine. A new turbine’s O&M may only be 10-15% but will potentially increase to 35% at its highest by the end of its lifetime. Some of these costs can include insurance, regular maintenance, repair, spare parts and administration costs. A breakdown of O&M costs for German turbines can be seen in Figure 2. In recent years wind turbines have increased in size by a factor of more than 100, from 25 kW to 2500 kW and higher. Following this, the blade diameter has increased by a factor of 8 and the cost of electricity has reduced by a factor of 5 (trend in turbine growth can be seen in Figure 3). The market for wind energy is, and will continue to grow, which requires a consistent improvement in the technology that goes into a wind turbine. Where the wind energy industry will be in the year 2030 additionally depends on the advancement in technologies of each component of the turbine. The future of the wind energy industry will bring increases in efficiency, reliability, noise reduction and compatibility with the grid network (and hopefully as smart grid to make integration simpler and faster). From present day through 2030 we will see optimization of the drive train system efficiencies, incremental advances in larger and lighter rotors and towers and improvements in power electronics costs. In addition, operation and 15

maintenance costs will decrease as technology and manufacturing matures and production volume increases. Today, Europe is the world leader in terms of installations and manufacturing, with most of the top ten manufacturers being European, therefore new technologies regarding wind turbines were assessed relative to the technology employed in Europe today. Regarding the future of the wind turbine structure and components, trends suggest that the overall system is not going to evolve radically, or much at all, through the year 2030. It seems likely that wind turbines will consist of the same or very similar components, and the majority of the improvement will come from increases in efficiency and performance of each component separately. There is the potential for a 15% increase in wind turbine capacity factors through 203011. The advancement in turbine component technology necessary for this increase involves the rotor/blade system, the tower and the drivetrain. Beginning with the rotor and blades, there isnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t much indication of any rotor design novelties but there are considerable incentives to use better materials and innovative controls to build enlarged rotors that sweep a greater area for the same, or lower, loads. A control system that actively senses rotor loads and then can subsequently suppress any loads that could be transferred to the turbine is a plausible next step. Another method of load reduction that is being analyzed today involves composite turbine blades that can innately bend and twist to lower its angle of attack which will reduce the lift and drag forces along the blade. Additionally there is the potential to develop variable diameter blades which could effectively increase in low velocity winds and decrease in higher velocity winds. This could help maximize energy obtained by the turbine and increase lifetime by decreasing the amount of stress the blades will experience. A shift to segmented blades, following the idea behind the segmented tower, is possible as well. This will allow for on-site assembly for simpler 11

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and cheaper manufacture and the ultimate long term potential for on-site manufacturing to decrease transportation costs. All in all, as the rotor size increases on larger machines, the trend will be toward high strength, fatigue resistant materials. As the turbine designs continually evolve, composites involving steel, GRP, CFRP and other materials will most likely play a large role in the manufacture of turbines. The towers, usually made of steel, can potentially utilize different materials due to the increasing cost of steel and tower height. Similar to the proposed controls for the rotor and blade system, there is the possibility of some form of active control system to dampen tower motion in high winds. Within the next 20 years, though, it seems likely that the design of the towers will not change significantly. Table 3 shows projected growth regarding capacity, rotor diameter and height of the tower along with the coinciding predicted advancement of composite technology. Finally, the area with the greatest potential for improvement in efficiency is the drivetrain. Today, some turbines have implemented a direct drive system, eliminating the gearbox, which allows for less power loss and higher reliability due to fewer components. In the near future it is logical to assume that more turbines will be manufactured this way which would decrease manufacturing time and costs in addition to operation and maintenance time and costs. The development of rare-earth permanent magnets in recent years has eliminated much of the weight and problems associated with insulation degradation and shorting and reduces electrical losses. It is predicted that there will be a shift across the board to permanent magnet alternators. Constant improvements in circuitry will continuously improve power quality and enable higher voltages to be used and increase overall converter efficiency. A more radical potential technological advancement in the structure of wind turbines in the next 20 years is the airborne wind turbine. These turbines exist today but are not used for

connection to the grid, and are still in development. An example schematic of the Magenn Air Rotor System can be seen in Figure 4. These wind turbines have access to almost constant wind without requirements for slip rings or yaw mechanisms because they are always orientated in the correct direction by the wind itself. Additionally, these wind turbines don’t require a tower therefore all of the manufacturing, transportation and assembly expenses associated with that component are eliminated. Ireland has shown that the capacity factor of a kite turbine using ground based generation can be as high as 52.2% versus 45% for a terrestrial wind turbine. Also, Sky Windpower, a company that specializes in airborne wind turbines, estimates a cost of $0.01 per kWh using a kite with a generator on the ground so not only is it more efficient, but it is also a cost effective solution as well. While this is a unique alternative, it is not expected that the wind turbine industry adopt this design for mass production and commercial use by 2030, although further development on this design will surely occur. Finally, there are some priority research and development areas that will be important to the advancement of wind turbines through 2030. These include the following12: 1. Wind turbine as a flow device – better understanding of how the turbine blades interact with the wind in different configurations and locations to increase efficiency 2. Wind turbine as a mechanical structure/material used to make the turbine – improve structural integrity of wind turbine through improved estimates of loads, new materials, better designs, tests and reliability of components 3. Wind turbine as an electricity plant – improve efficiency of electrical components and minimize effect of grid on wind turbine design

http://www.wind-energy-the-facts.org

4. Wind turbine as a control system â&#x20AC;&#x201C; optimize balance between performance, loading and lifetime through improved sensing and control devices 5. Innovative concepts and integration â&#x20AC;&#x201C; achieve reduction in the lifetime cost of energy through analysis of innovative turbine concepts, incremental improvements in technology and higher risk strategies 6. Developing standards for wind turbine design â&#x20AC;&#x201C; allows for technological advancement along with confidence in safety and performance of wind turbines

Policy Considerations Despite bipartisan support, wind energy policy is quite uncertain. Proper policy enables wind energy expansion and rapid market development, but the future of the wind industry in the United States depends on short-term renewal of shortsighted policies resulting in an erratic, unstable political climate and a marked lack of confidence in the industry. The Production Tax Credit (PTC) and the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) are at the source of the volatile political structure supporting wind. Though both incentives have bipartisan support, tax credits directly influence the federal budget and methods for offsetting revenue losses spurs spirited debate. The production tax credit, created under the Energy Policy Act of 1992, provides an income tax credit of 2.2 cents/kilowatt-hour of wind power production. The PTC is available for the production of electricity from utility-scale wind turbines. The wind energy industry leans heavily on the PTC for support. It is set to expire on December 31, 2012. Whether the PTC will actually be allowed to expire at the end of 2012 is the largest uncertainty currently facing the wind industry. The importance of the PTC to the U.S. wind 19

power industry is illustrated by pronounced lulls in wind power capacity additions in the three years the PTC was allowed to expire—2000, 2002, and 2004. During those lapses of the PTC, the wind industry’s ability to efficiently invest in new production facilities was impaired and turbine installations fell between 73 and 93%. Such an inefficient boom-bust cycle of policy leads to higher costs for the industry. There will likely be a significant drop in the 2013 U.S. wind market regardless of whether the PTC expires. Eight months away from expiration, job layoffs are already in progress, developers are holding off on plans for wind energy projects in the US, and domestic manufacturers are no longer receiving orders. The U.S. faces significant job losses and the regression of the diversification of the nation’s electricity portfolio. The global wind energy market is also expected to suffer from the expiration of the PTC. According to a forecast by the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC), the global wind market will fall 0.4 percent next year after a 2011 growth of 13.4 percent. As the driving force of the industry, the PTC cannot be allowed to go without a fight. On November 2, 2011, Representative Reichert (R-WA-8) and Representative Blumenauer (D-OR3) introduced a bi-partisan PTC 4-year extension bill, H.R. 3307. Senator Al Franken (DMN) proposed a bill to replace the PTC with a 30 percent investment tax credit for community wind projects that would be in place through 2016. Under the Franken Bill, community wind projects of less than 20MW would be able to utilize a credit. The ITC has been subject to similar last‐minute extensions. The investment tax credit was part of Section 1603 of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and allows wind project developers to receive a 30% investment tax credit.

The success of these tax credits as the foundation of the wind industry support system in the United States depends on their ability to be traded. This allows the wind farm project owner to sell the tax deductions generated by the wind facility to a company that can use that deduction. Under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, those eligible for either the ITC or PTC can elect to receive a grant from the U.S. Treasury Department equal to 30% of the basis of the property of the wind energy facility. That is, renewable energy project developers get back 30% of the investment costs in cash. This payment lowers the effective price that project developers see and, therefore, makes the technology more competitive. According to the 2010 Wind Technologies Market Report, more than 70% of the new wind capacity installed in 2010 elected for the Section 1603 grant. The Treasury Departmentâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s $9 billion renewable energy grant program, known as the 1603 program, is used to reimburse eligible applicants for a portion of the facility installation costs after the wind energy facility is placed in service. A report by the Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory concludes that the 1603 grants directly and indirectly helped create between 52,000 and 75,000 jobs each year it was available (2009 through 2011). In that three-year period, the 1603 grants supported between $26 billion and $44 billion in economic output. Feed-in-tariff policies have only been implemented at the state level in the US but have been quite successful in Europe. A feed-in-tariff (FIT) is a production-based incentive that has the purpose of promoting the rapid deployment of renewable energy. It guarantees wind energy developers electricity a certain price per kWh at which electricity is bought. The tariff is commonly set and fixed over a period of 20 years, though adjustments for inflation may be made. Feed-in-tariffs are not refinanced from the public budget but from the premium electricity

consumers pay on their bills. As long as consumers are not shouldering too large a burden, this method has proven to be a stable approach to renewable energy support. Feed-in-tariffs can cause economic development and job creation spikes due to the low barriers to entry and guaranteed terms. In fact, economic development and job creation are cited as the leading reasons for implementing FIT policy in the FIT bills that have been proposed in Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, and Minnesota. Feed-in-tariffs can create fixed prices for wind energy and stabilize electricity rates. Successful FIT policies use the levelized cost of wind energy generation as the basis for the prices they offer suppliers in order to obtain a reasonable rate of return. Feed-in-tariffs policies are designed to offer stable revenue streams in long-term purchase contracts. They do not address the high up-front costs of wind energy development, but absorb them over a longer period of time. FIT policies must adjust payment levels with changes in market prices or technology costs. It is a challenge to provide this flexibility in the policy without instilling uncertainty in the investor or increasing overall market risk. A detailed method for tracking market changes, periodic policy adjustments, and incorporating an incremental decrease in the FIT prices over time will encourage innovation, accelerate deployment, and reassure investors. The Clean Renewable Energy Bond (CREB) program is a financial incentive created in the Energy Policy Act of 2005 available to municipal utilities and electric cooperatives intended to promote renewable energy development. Government entities like public power systems and municipal utilities are not eligible for the PTC, and the CREB program fills that void. A renewable portfolio standard (RPS) is a regulatory mandate to increase production of energy from a renewable source a certain amount or percentage of a utilityâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s power plant

capacity or generation by a given date. A renewable portfolio standard can guarantee a market for and encourage investment in renewables. A renewable portfolio standardâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s success can depend on whether the state has adequate transmission capacity to accommodate generation from renewable resources. Presently, 29 U.S. states and the District of Columbia have adopted an RPS. Net metering is a popular but simple policy option for states that allows electric customers who generate their own electricity to bank excess electricity on the grid, usually in the form of kWh credits. The consumer can then use these credits to offset electricity consumed at a different time.

Economics of Wind Power versus other Energy Sources This section of the report will focus on the effect that increasing wind power will have on other energy sources, including both fossil fuels and renewables. Namely, the competition between wind energy and these other sources is analyzed from an economically-based perspective. Fossil Fuels Natural Gas An increase in wind power moving towards the year 2030 will have little to no impact on natural gas consumption. The discovery and utilization of shale gas has made an already useful fossil fuel even more desirable. The installed capital cost of land-based wind farms has grown from$1,000-$1,500 per kWe,p in the early 2000s to about $2,000 per kWe,p by the latter half of the decade. Natural gas costs, on the other hand, continue to lower in price based on their future prospects. According to an EIA estimate, on-shore wind energy costs were 10% higher than

natural gas combined cycle power plants with CCS, and 50% higher than those plants without CCS. Regardless of whether carbon taxes will be imposed or not, natural gas power plants still hold the advantage over wind energy. Therefore, in the near future of the next 20 years, natural gas will most likely be minimally impacted. The only possible way in which natural gas will see competition from wind energy is if legitimate sources of energy storage are developed and if the United States begins to export natural gas on a large scale. Energy storage devices would allow wind energy to deal with the intermittency and supply the grid even when the wind isnâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t blowing. The exporting of domestic natural gas will cause the price in the United States to jump to the global levels, which are substantially higher. Although this would not make the natural gas plants instantly unfeasible, it would make investors think more about renewable energies such as wind. The chances of this occurring would be low, but definitely within the realm of possibility between now and 2030. Coal In the near future, coal-fired power plants may be in fierce competition with wind energy depending on future scenarios. Coal as a fuel is cheap and abundant, but it is also the dirtiest burning and most carbon intensive fossil fuel. Before 2030, it is in the realm of possibility that a carbon tax will be put into place in the United States. If a carbon tax is instituted, the economic future of coal-fired power plants could be at stake. In the same EIA study earlier that stated that wind energy is more expensive than natural gas technologies, it said that wind energy levelized costs of generation (LCOG) are 30% lower than those for coal-fired plants with CCS.13 Even without the carbon capture sequestration installed in the plants and without a carbon tax, the costs of wind energy and coal are about equal. This bodes very well for wind energy moving forward as the United States will make to push towards green technologies. As long as wind 13

Incropera, Frank. Wind, Water and Earth.

remains remotely comparable economically compared to dirtier technologies of coal power plants, investors will look to finance in wind power rather than coal. One concern is that the reduction in new coal-fired power plants may lead to a loss of jobs in the coal industry. Although this statement may be partially true, the overall picture is that jobs will be created nationwide. A 2010 study at the University of California-Berkeley found that renewable energy and low carbon technologies generate more jobs than fossil-fuel based technologies per unit of energy generated.14 In fact, their â&#x20AC;&#x153;mediumâ&#x20AC;? scenario for 2030 results in the creation of over 4 million job-years which can even be more with the addition of further nuclear generation and carbon capture additions. So as coal begins to diminish as a source to generate power in the United States, the jobs lost will be more than compensated for in the renewable sector. This may anger those already in the coal mining industry, but job markets always change for the better or worse. Although wind energy will begin to affect coal power, coal will still remain a dominant force in power production for 2030. Wind energy may just inhibit its future growth looking beyond to the next couple decades. Oil The effect of growing wind power on the oil industry in the year 2030 will depend on the development of transportation technologies. Currently, oil accounts for approximately 95% of all energy used for transportation in the United States, while it accounts for less than 20% in other uses, showing a steady decline over the years.15 U.S. electric power production statistics for 2010 revealed that oil only contributed 1.0%, while wind contributed more than double at 2.3%. Oil is not in direct competition with wind energy as they power two completely different

14 15

http://rael.berkeley.edu/sites/default/files/old-site-files/green_jobs_paper_Oct1809.pdf http://www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/oil_market_basics/demand_text.htm

industries. Wind energy focuses on electricity production, while oil continues to dominate in the transportation sector. The only way that wind energy could potentially impact oil by the year 2030 is if electric and hybrid vehicles become major competitors in the automotive industry. Hybrid vehicles would begin to rely less on gasoline and more on electricity provide from the grid and in turn wind energy. However, this possibility for 2030 has a minimal chance of occurring. Oil will still reign supreme in the auto industry as the technologies of battery powered vehicles will not be completely developed. According to a recent article in The New York Times, optimistic forecasts for 2025 show that plug-in vehicles will make up less that 5% of the global market, and hybrid vehicles such as the Toyota Prius will only account for as much as 25%.16 Although hybrid vehicles will possibly cause a significant dent in transportation, they will still rely on gasoline and oil for fuel. More cars will be on the road and the demand for oil will still be just as high. Only a complete transition to either completely electric or hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will cause a decrease in demand for oil. This will happen at some point in the future, but the prospects for 2030 are minimal. Other Renewables Nuclear Moving into 2030, nuclear power will still have a significant role in electricity production; however, the decreasing costs of wind power may see a competition between the two. As seen in a March 2012 edition of The Economist, it was written, â&#x20AC;&#x153;in a low-emissions world, the role for nuclear will be limited to whatever level of electricity demand remains when renewables are deployed as far as possible.â&#x20AC;?17 With the fears of nuclear energy as seen in the

16 17

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/25/sunday-review/the-electric-car-unplugged.html?pagewanted=all http://www.economist.com/node/21549096/print

recent Fukushima disaster, the construction of new nuclear power plants is politically and economically infeasible in comparison to other power options. Currently existing nuclear power plants will continue to run far into the future and past 2030. The main issue is building new nuclear plants to keep up with ones that are taken out of commission. The competition of wind energy will vary by region, as wind power is only feasible in regions where wind is consistent. In the Southeast, nuclear power plants will still be built in Georgia and South Carolina, but these may be the only new sites in the coming years. Nuclear power plants are the best choice in the Southeast, as wind power is virtually impossible to harness at any reasonable cost. In other places such as the Great Plains, where strong winds are consistent, nuclear energy will not be able to compete with wind energy. If the production tax credit is extended in the coming years (which is a big â&#x20AC;&#x153;ifâ&#x20AC;?) wind energy will surpass nuclear power. Nuclear power will still contribute a significant market share, but only to bridge the gap in demand and provide a consistent source of energy in times of intermittency. Hydroelectric This section will remain brief, because wind energy will have little effect on the hydroelectric sector. The construction of future hydroelectric plants in the United States will be kept at a minimum and is focused on repairing current structures instead of building at new sites. Although the United States is nowhere near its maximum capabilities for exploiting hydroelectricity, the downsides of ecosystem damage and high costs of constructing dams are enough to keep future construction stagnant. If anything, hydroelectricity could work in conjunction with wind power, as a storage possibility during intermittency of wind energy. Solar

Solar energy is the main competitor to wind in terms of emerging renewable technologies. Wind power is a bit ahead of the game of solar power in terms of large scale usage, but it is beginning to level out in terms of technological advances. Solar power on the other hand, has nowhere to go but up. There is massive room for research and development on photovoltaic systems, but no clear technology has emerged as the one to go with. However, the performances of solar power must improve and the costs of constructing solar plants must be lowered if the technology will be competitive with wind energy by year 2030. In 2010, solar power only comprised 0.03% of the United States energy technology while wind contributed 2.3%. If solar power does not make significant strides in the next twenty years, wind power and other renewable will put solar energy in its tracks. By the year 2030, solar energy will need to continually be subsidized to remain competitive with wind energy. With the worldâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growing energy needs, a combination of all renewable energies will need to be implemented to even come close to meeting expectations. Solar energy may be dominated economically by wind power in the year 2030, but heavy government subsidies and production tax credits should keep solar power in the game.

Environmental Considerations The environmental impact of wind energy is minor compared to traditional energy sources today. Wind turbines emit zero greenhouse gases and the fossil fuels used for construction and transportation of materials is displaced within a year by new turbines. When considering wind turbine technology one must keep in mind the environmental impacts a turbine may have. Several factors which are discussed in the following sections include: ideal locations

and spacing for land usage, wind turbine effect on climate, wildlife impact, and consumer population impact. Ideal Locations Wind in the United States is not divided equally across its vast landscape. Wind turbines should only be placed in areas where they are a cost effective option. By the year 2030, barring some unforeseen natural disaster, the landscape for the United States will remain relatively unchanged. The time period between the present and 2030 is much too short in regards to the scope of the Earth to enact significant change. This means that on average wind statistics today, should match well with those of the future. There are two areas in the United States which are considered viable for wind turbine farms. They are onshore and offshore locations. Currently onshore locations are the predominant location for wind farms because offshore wind farms have yet to become a cost effective option. Now, letâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s take a look at each option more closely. Onshore According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the United States has the potential for 10,459 GW of onshore wind power. The best possible locations for onshore wind turbines are in hilly or mountainous areas where transmission lines are readily available. Most new wind farms are being constructed in the Midwest and Great Plains regions. These regions have great wind resources, extensive shipping networks, and flat topography. However, development is haltered by the low capacity transmission lines that are available. As transmission lines continue to improve the wind turbine location potential will increase as well. The map in Figure 5 in Appendix A was produced by the NREL to illustrate the wind power potential in the United States.

As of December 2011 the top five states with the most wind capacity installed are: Texas, Iowa, California, Illinois, and Minnesota. By 2030, states with large wind potential such as South Dakota, Kansas, and Oklahoma may be able to break into the top five only if longer and more powerful transmission lines are constructed in these states. Offshore Currently there are no offshore wind farms in the United States. However, projects such as the Cape Wind and Delaware Offshore Wind Farm have been proposed, but have yet uncertain futures. The challenge and cost of harvesting wind energy offshore today is too overwhelming to persuade investment. The United States does have very large offshore wind energy resources due to consistent winds along the long U.S. coastline. Larger turbines can also be made than onshore by utilizing barges. According to the NREL there is large potential for offshore wind turbines along the west coast, northeast coast, great lakes, gulf coast, and along Hawaii and Alaska. By 2030 the challenges and costs from constructing offshore wind turbines may be mitigated enough so that projects offshore may become feasible options. Spacing The spacing of wind turbines in wind farms is critically important to the effectiveness of the turbine to generate electricity efficiently. If they are constructed too close to each other the turbulence imparted in the air by the leading wind turbine would translate into every preceding turbine and negate their ability to generate electricity at their maximum potential. Today, the general rule of thumb in regards to wind turbine spacing in wind farms is to have at least 10 rotor diameters between turbines in the downwind direction and 5 rotor diameters in the crosswind direction. In 2030 the general rule of thumb should still apply even

with the increasing size of turbines. This would lead to fewer turbines occupying the same land area, but they should generate more electricity because of the larger turbines in the wind farms. The spacing of the wind turbines in these wind farms may seem to be a considerable issue in regards to the amount of land usage farms would occupy. This is a concern which is very easily rectified when one comes to the realization that on average 95% of the land on wind turbine farms is reusable for farming, cattle grazing, and etc. because most of the land is just needed for spacing purposes. In 2030 this issue will remain the same, although larger turbines will take up more area per turbine the overall area may be less or equivalent to today because the number of turbines per wind farm area would decrease. Environmental Impact One of the largest incentives for manufacturing wind turbines is the effect on climate mitigation. Wind turbines are powered by the wind and do not emit any greenhouse gases. Although carbon-intensive processes are needed in order to produce a wind turbine the breakeven point for carbon dioxide emissions is 8.6 months for low wind conditions.18 In 2030, the break-even point may remain relatively unchanged or decrease because larger turbines will have greater generating capacities and the carbon-intensive processes will also be improved with the aid of future technology. One element used in the construction of wind turbines is particularly destructive to the environment. Neodymium is used to construct some of the most powerful magnets in the world, but is also used in the generators of wind turbines. This element is primarily exported from China. This means manufacturers are at the whim of Chinaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s exports. The mining of this rareearth element has caused great environmental destruction and is raising pollution concerns.

â&#x20AC;&#x153;Comparing Energy Payback,â&#x20AC;? 22 Apr. 2012 <http://www.vestas.com/en/about-vestas/sustainability/sustainableproducts/life-cycle-assessment/comparing-energy-payback.aspx?action=3>.

Miners use acids to extract the neodymium from clay deposits. The acid flows into streams and rivers and is destroying farmland and water supplies.19 Wind turbine manufacturers need to take these concerns into consideration by supporting governmental action against the destructive mine practices or invest in the research for designs which reduce or eliminate the use of neodymium from their turbines. A commercial solution may not be available by 2030, but researchers are focusing efforts to create turbine generators that use less neodymium. Other partial solutions include recycling old electronics for the rare earth element and searching for an alternative to neodymium.20 By 2030 this issue will not be resolved through research and technological breakthroughs in turbine design, but others like this may occur as well. Manufacturers need to consider every possible environmental impact a turbine may have from raw materials to end of life disposal. Wildlife Considerations Although wind turbine farms have little impact on the environment compared to fossil fuel power plants, wind turbine farms face a serious issue in regards to wildlife. Birds and bats are the two groups of wildlife which have raised the most concern. The deaths at wind farm sites have sparked controversy among fish and wildlife agencies and conservation groups. These agencies can make permitting wind turbines in optimal locations difficult through protest and political actions. One study estimates that wind farms are responsible for between 0.3 and 0.4 bird fatalities per gigawatt-hour (GWh) of electricity. Compared to fossil fueled power stations at 5.2 fatalities per GWh wind turbines are much less detrimental to avian wildlife.21 The fossil fuel

Bradsher, Keith. “Earth-Friendly Elements, Mined Destructively,” New York: Times, 2009. <http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/26/business/global/26rare.html?_r=2&hp=&pagewanted=all>. 20 Brasher 21 Sovacool, Benjamin. “The Avian Benefits of Wind Energy: A 2009 Update,” Lee Kuan Yew School of Public

fatality number is so much larger because the estimate is primarily based upon the habitat alteration from carbon emissions and coal mining as seen in Table 4 in Appendix A. There are a few research ideas which wind turbine manufacturers have been able to use in order to decrease the amount of avian fatalities. Some research could include: predictive models on migratory and movements of wildlife, using new radar technology to detect wildlife, and placing turbines in areas with high potential wind resources and low risk wildlife endangerment. One such radar system is used by the Peñascal Wind Power Project that shuts down the turbines upon the arrival of large flocks of migratory birds. Bats run a similar risk as birds in regards to wind farms. Studies have suggested that bats have been killed the turbine blades as well as by passing through an area of rapid air-pressure reduction near moving turbine blades.22 Bats are attracted to these locations in search or roosts and are most at risk during their migratory seasons. There is a lot of uncertainty between studies in regards to the scope of the population impact the bat mortalities have made. There are a few suggestions which may help turbine manufacturers decrease the amount of bat fatalities. The Bats and Wind Energy Cooperative released a study in 2009 which showed a drop of 73% in bat fatalities when wind farms were stopped during low wind conditions at times when bats were known to be most active. Microwave transmitters can be placed on wind turbines to help deter the bats from flying into the turbine blades. Researchers have discovered that a stationary beam can reduce bat activity by nearly 40% and aim to build transmitters with the ability to get 80-90% reduction in bat activity.23

Policy, National University of Singapore. 2009. <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148112000857>. 22 Baerwald, Erin. “Barotrauma is a Significant Cause of Bat Fatalities at Wind Turbines,” Department of Biological Sciences, University of Calgary. 2008. <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960982208007513>. 23 Aron, Jacob. “Radar Beams Could Protect Bats From Wind Turbines,” theguardian 2009. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jul/17/radar-bat-wind-turbine>.

In regards to offshore wind farms, their generally has been fewer avian wildlife fatalities. The main concern is marine life and environment. A governmental study in the UK concluded that 5,000 – 7,000 offshore wind turbines could be installed without an adverse impact on the marine environment.24 This study was part of the Offshore Energy Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). In 2030 wildlife considerations and safety concerns will remain constant. The use of radar and microwave emitter technology will continue to significantly reduce the avian fatalities seen from wind turbines. Consumer Considerations There is much communal debate over wind farms. In the United States the general population is more in favor of an increase of wind farms. However, there have been “not in my back yard” (NIMBY) concerns related to the impacts of some wind farms. This can lead to entire farms becoming blocked from construction. Wind farm manufacturers need to take into account the safety, noise, and aesthetics of the wind turbines. Some safety issues which must always be considered are: mechanical or electrical failures and fires which can release toxic fumes, automatic shut down systems, and ice formations on turbine blades. Aesthetically, new wind farms are more pleasing to the consumer. The smaller wind farms have more wind turbines which appear cluttered. These issues are subjective will never have a complete resolution. Turbines may be seen as things of beauty and symbols of energy independence or a blotch on the landscape. Another aesthetic issue is “shadow flicker” on residences when the sun is behind the turbine.25

Murray, James. “Study Finds Offshore Wind Farms Can Co-Exist with Marine Environment,” 26. Jan. 2009. <http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/1805447/study-offshore-wind-farms-exist-marine-environment>. 25 “The Wind Energy Fact Sheet,” Department of Environment, Climate Change, and Water NSW. 1 Nov. 2010. <http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/resources/climatechange/10923windfacts.pdf>.

Turbine rotor noise is another consumer issue which has sparked much concern. Lowfrequency aerodynamic noise can carry up to 500 meters. However, future and modern technology advances continue to produce significantly less noise than older designs. Noise levels may also be managed by siting wind farms at “setback” distances from residences. “Wind Turbine Syndrome” is believed to be caused by the noise of the turbines and induce headaches, insomnia and anxiety in people. However, the reliability of these claims is an issue which remains in constant refute. By 2030 the general population will be more accepting of wind mills. Safety hazards, aesthetics, and noise issues will be decreased or resolved through the use of new and improved technology and designs.

Possible Scenarios for 2030 Although there are many different scenarios for wind energy in the year 2030, two main scenarios are analyzed below for their impacts. The production tax credit (PTC) for wind energy has an enormous impact on the industry, and the reliability of its renewal is critical for the growth of wind in the next 20 years. These two possibilities, the extension and expiration of the production tax credit, are the two different scenarios. One will offer rapid growth for the industry while the other will result in stagnation in the wind industry. Extension of the Production Tax Credit The continued extension of the PTC by the federal government would provide continued growth for the wind industry. It would drive continued investments and allow wind energy to reach grid parity in a quicker timeframe. According to Pat Eilers from Madison Dearborn Partners, the production tax credit over the past five years has resulted in tremendous success for

wind.26 In this time span, GEâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s domestic wind turbine content went from 20 to 75 percent, prices for wind equipment have fallen in the range of 20 to 50 percent, and efficiencies have drastically improved. All of this momentum cannot be built upon unless the production tax credit is continued in the future. Under this scenario, a market share of 20% wind power by 2030 is the maximum limit that can be reached under optimal conditions. This projection and plan was given by US Department of Energy in 2008 and outlines the case completely.27 According to the report, wind energy will add of 293 GWe to the grid, which bridges the gap in the increasing energy demand between now and 2030 of 250 GWe. This gigantic increase in capacity will result in the creation of 72,946 annual jobs, considered to be direct impacts of construction and operations. This number of annual jobs nearly triples if the indirect and induced jobs created are taken into consideration. The report does not attempt to quantify the number of jobs lost in other industries such as coal and natural gas fired power plants, but the creation of this many jobs by wind power surely meets if not exceeds the number of jobs lost. Stated simply, wind energy will cause a net increase in jobs if the production tax credit is passed. This scenario of 20% growth is unlikely though given that the report made a lot of assumptions to reach this energy goal, many of which may be difficult to accomplish. Instead, slow growth in the wind sector is the most likely scenario with the production tax credit, with a market share of approximately 15% by 2030. As mentioned earlier in the report, the slow response of Congress to act on the PTC for 2013 will cause a significant drop in the US wind market even if it is passed. Projects are planned many months if not a year in advance of construction, so companies need assurance that their projects will be subsidized before they 26

Pat Eilers, March 5th, 2012 at the University of Notre Dame http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/41869.pdf

proceed. In order to see any substantial growth, a long-term guaranteed subsidy needs to be passed to gain confidence in the market. Elimination of the Production Tax Credit The elimination of the production tax credit would prove devastating for wind energy in 2030. According to a January 2012 article in the New York Times, “A recent study found that in 2012 the industry would support 78,000 jobs, but that number could fall to 41,000 in 2013 without an extension of the production tax credit.”28 The failure to renew the PTC would nearly cut the industry in half in terms of labor force, which is not promising if the goal is to provide 20% wind energy by 2030. As a result of this, the wind business would experience stagnation as little to no companies would invest in new wind turbines. Wind turbines already built would continue to run since the operating costs are minimal. Construction of wind turbines in wind-dense states such as North Dakota may continue, since wind in these regions is still profitable without the PTC. According to Mike O’Sullivan to Next Era Energy, “economic wind” has returned in the central region at a cost of only $0.03/kWh.29 Figure 6 shows that wind energy can be produced throughout the Midwest at a reasonable price. The clear issue with this is transmission, so without the production tax credit, wind energy will remain localized. For a projected market share, it would be difficult to see wind power have a much larger percentage in 2030 than it does currently at around 2%. The non-renewal of the production tax credit would eliminate wind energy as a viable option for substantial energy production in 2030. Some companies might find the technology useful and profitable in some parts of the country, but the growth and development would simply 28

http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/business/energy-environment/wind-power/index.html

Mike O’Sullivan, March 5 , 2012 at the University of Notre Dame

be too slow to have wind energy meet the lofty goals that government agencies set for it. Every other energy sector both renewable and non-renewable has government subsidies in one form or another. Not granting government aid to wind energy would be illogical and put the industry at a disadvantage that cannot be overcome by 2030.

Conclusion and Plan of Action Increasing our reliance on wind power demands that we renovate our transmission system. Wind raises the challenge of having the source of the energy located in one main location while needed that energy scattered throughout a vast nation. The power distribution grid must be renovated simply to deal with the increase in electricity demand in America, so while doing so it should be upgraded to use high voltage direct current (HVDC) cables which are better suited for transmitting vast quantities of power over large distances. On another level, the grid must be made â&#x20AC;&#x153;smartâ&#x20AC;? in order to increase efficiency not only in distributing the power but also shifting the demand of when power is needed. With users satisfying many of their power needs during times of low demand the users will save money while the utilities will be able to provide better for their consumers. Circumventing the handicap of the intermittence of wind will require grid-level power storage on a national scale. This will require moving away from hydropumped storage of energy into compressed air energy storage as well as more research into large-scale energy storage into batteries. Superconducting materials, Na-based, and Li-ion batteries all present unique opportunities to achieve this goal. Regarding wind turbine technology and its potential capabilities in the year 2030, the future looks promising. As long as the Production Tax Credit is renewed to continue to foster the growth of the wind industry, the funding will exist to improve all of the components that make

up a wind turbine. Through 2030 it seems very likely that the tower heights and rotor diameters will continue to grow in order to sweep larger areas of higher speed winds. As mentioned previously there is potential for variable diameter blades in the future, but this probably wonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t be a prevalent feature by 2030. With the technology of the direct drive turbine, there are fewer power losses converting the wind energy into electricity. It is predicted that this technology will play a large role in the advancement of wind turbines into 2030. As a result of increased size and efficiency, capacity factors and generating capabilities will subsequently increase as well for all size wind turbines (potentially generate more than 10 MW). Ultimately, the renewal of the PTC will single-handedly help fund technology advancements for wind turbines providing us with a bright future. In terms of economic competition with other energy sources, it appears that wind energy will have the advantage over coal power, while still be at a disadvantage against natural gas. Unless natural gas begins to be exported from the United States, natural gas combined cycle plants will remain economically more viable than wind power both in terms of upfront costs and LCOG. Besides natural gas, wind energy should have the leg up economically over any other energy source. As mentioned earlier, the levelized cost of generation for wind power is approximately equal to that for coal power without carbon capture. With impending carbon taxes and regulations over the next 20 years, it is safe to assume that wind power will continue to become cheaper, while coal will begin to be phased out. Wind energy does not have direct competition with oil currently, but the development of electric and hybrid vehicles will cause wind energy to provide a cheaper energy source in the transportation industry. Also, with respect to other renewable and non-carbon emitting energies, wind energy should have the leg up

on the competition. Solar power is too underdeveloped at this point and nuclear energy prices have been consistently increasing. Overall, the extension of the PTC in the next few years is the tipping point that will decide the fate of wind energy in the years to come. If it is extended, then all of the preceding advances should take place by the year 2030. The goal of 15% wind energy by 2030 will be attainable. If it is not extended, then stagnation will occur in the United States while the rest of the world begins to utilize wind power. The United States cannot afford to lose out on this great opportunity and attainable goal. Optimistically, Congress should focus all of its attention on the energy crisis and help the struggling wind industry. By doing so, 15% wind energy by 2030 will be obtained and will continue to grow beyond. Appendix A: Figures and Tables I. Figures

Figure 1. Components and Layout of a Wind Turbine. 40

Figure 2. Different Categories of O&M costs for German Turbines, as an Average over the Time Period 1997-2001.

Figure 3. Growth in Size of Commercial Wind Turbine Designs.

Figure 4. Airborne Wind Turbine.

Figure 5: NREL Wind Potential

Figure 6. Wind energy costs by region (Oâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;Sullivan)

II. Tables Table 1. Turbine Component Weight and Cost30. Component Rotor Nacelle and Machinery Gearbox and Drivetrain Generator Systems Weight on Top of Tower Tower

% of Machine Weight 10-14 25-40 5-15 2-6 35-50 30-65

% of Machine Cost 20-30 25 10-15 5-15 N/A 10-25

Table 2. Percentage of Materials Used in Current Wind Turbine Component30. Large Turbines and (Small Turbines)

http://www.perihq.com/documents/WindTurbine-MaterialsandManufacturing_FactSheet.pdf

Component/ Material

Perma nent Magne tic Materi als

PreStressed Concrete

Rotor Hub Blades Nacelle Gearbox

(17)

Generator Frame, Machinery and Shell Tower

(50)

Steel

Aluminum

(95)100 5 (65)-80 98(100) (20)-65 85-(74)

(5)

3-4 (0)-2

14 (<1)-2

9-(50)

(30)-35 4-(12)

(2)

Copper

Glass Reinforced Plastic

Wood Epoxy

Carbon Filament Reinforced Plastic

95 1-(2)

(95)

3-(5)

Table 3. Projected composite technology path. (m) Turbine Diameter

Height (m) Hub

Year 1996 2000

Capacity (kW) Turbine Rated 500 750

38 46

40 60

2005

1000

Description Basis For Composite Technology Based on several commercial turbines. Based on several preliminary DOE Next Generation turbine designs, current prototypes, analysis from R&D activities, and manufacturer reports of next generation technology plans. Advances are driven by an additional cycle of turbine research activities. Projections are based on internal laboratory analysis.

2010 2020 2030

1000 1000 1000

55 55 55

80 90 100

Post 2005 incorporates incremental technology advances. Modest cost reductions are primarily from manufacturing improvements and increased volume.

Table 4: Avian Deaths per Year in the United States, 200931 Estimated Fatalities

Source

(thousands)

Wind turbines

Nuclear powerplants

330

Communication towers

4,000

Fossil fuel powerplants

14,000

Pesticide use

72,000

Building windows

97,000

Feral cats

110,000

Transmission Lines

175,000

Sovacool