Api580 b my self study notes by charlie Chong

中国固有领土: 钓鱼岛

Risk-Based Inspection Downstream Segment API RECOMMENDED PRACTICE 580 SECOND EDITION, NOVEMBER 2009 基于风险的检验-下游段

2014年内部培训

Facilitators: Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang/

10.4 Determination of POF 确定故障概率 10.4.1 General 总则 Regardless of whether a more qualitative or a quantitative analysis is used, the POF is determined by two main considerations: 无论是是定性或定量分析, 故障概率的确定的两个因素是 a) damage mechanisms and rates of the equipment item’s material of construction, resulting from its operating environment (internal and external); 运作环境(内/外)所导致的损伤机理与腐蚀率 b) effectiveness of the inspection program to identify and monitor the damage mechanisms so that the equipment can be repaired or replaced prior to failure. 检查程序对损伤机理的识别和监控的有效性.使设备在在失效前能够进行修理或更换.

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Failure occurred Probability of Failure POF

Damage Tolerance Limit Planned Inspection

Mitigation Deterioration Rate Time Unacceptable inspection interval

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Analyzing the effect of in-service deterioration and inspection on the POF involves the following steps. 在分析在(1) 职恶化和 (2) 检查对POF的影响包括以下步骤 a) Identify active and credible damage mechanisms that are reasonably expected to occur during the time period being considered (considering normal and upset conditions). 识别在考虑时间段, 合理预期可能产生的可信损伤机理 b) Determine the deterioration susceptibility and rate. For example, a fatigue crack is driven by cyclic stress; corrosion damage is driven by the temperature, concentration of corrosive, corrosion current, etc. A damage accumulation rule may be available to mathematically model this process. Rather than a given value of the magnitude of the damage mechanism driving forces, a statistical distribution of these forces may be available (see API 579-1/ASME FF2-1). 确定的恶化易感性和速率. 这可以通过损伤累积规则运用数学模拟过程计算数据. 除了确实值, 也能以统计分布体现数据. API 579-1/ASME FF2-1为例子.

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c) Using a consistent approach, quantify the effectiveness of the past inspection, maintenance and process monitoring program and a proposed future inspection, maintenance and process monitoring program. It is usually necessary to evaluate the POF considering several alternative future inspection and maintenance strategies, possibly including a “no inspection or maintenance” strategy.使用一致的方法, 量化的过去的策略效力(检验/ 维护/ 工艺控制) 与未来预期成效. 评价POF也应考虑几种可供选择的未来的检查和维护策略, 可能包括- “不检查或维修”战略 d) Determine the probability that with the current condition, continued deterioration at the predicted/expected rate will exceed the damage tolerance of the equipment and result in a failure. The failure mode (e.g. small leak, large leak, equipment rupture) should also be determined based on the damage mechanism. It may be desirable in some cases to determine the probability of more than one failure mode and combine the risks. 确定在当前的情况下, 持续恶化将超过设备的损伤容限, 并导致失效的概率. 相应失效模式也应根据损伤机制确定. 在某些情况, 可能会有多个失效模式, 并结合有关风险来分析.

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Failure occurred Probability of Failure POF

Damage Tolerance Limit Planned Inspection

Extended Interval

Mitigation Deterioration Rate Time Interval sufficient to detect pitting & SCC

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Extended inspection interval failure mode: Crack open if failure occurred leading to different failure scenarios thus consequences

10.4.2 Determine the Deterioration Susceptibility and Rate 确定退化敏感性和速率 Combinations of process conditions and materials of construction for each equipment item should be evaluated to identify active and credible damage mechanisms. One method of determining these mechanisms and susceptibility is to group components that have the same material of construction and are exposed to the same internal and external environment. Inspection results from one item in the group can be related to the other equipment in the group. 每个设备的工艺条件和材料组合应进行评估, 以确定活跃和可信的损伤机制. 设备拥有共同工艺条件和材料组合可以归类为一组, 从改组的一个设备检验结构同时能运用在其他在组里的设备.

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For many damage mechanisms, the rate of damage progression is generally understood and can be estimated for process plant equipment. Deterioration rate can be expressed in terms of corrosion rate for thinning or susceptibility for mechanisms where the deterioration rate is unknown or immeasurable (such as stress corrosion cracking). Susceptibility is often designated as high, medium or low based on the environmental conditions and material of construction combination. Fabrication variables and repair history are also important. 设施设备的许多损伤机制, 损伤进展的速度一般都能探知和可可靠地估计. 劣化率可以腐蚀速率表示 (mm/yr) 或未知或无法估量的劣化率 (如应力腐蚀开裂等), 以高,中或低定位.

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The deterioration rate in specific process equipment is often not known with certainty. The ability to state the rate of deterioration precisely is affected by equipment complexity, type of damage mechanism, process and metallurgical variations, inaccessibility for inspection, limitations of inspection and test methods and the inspector’s expertise. 在特定的工艺设备恶化率往往不能真确的确知. 不确知的因素有      

equipment complexity,设备的复杂性 type of damage mechanism,损伤机理类型 process and metallurgical variations, 工艺和冶金的变化 inaccessibility for inspection,难以进行检查 limitations of inspection and test methods and 检查和测试方法的局限性 the inspector’s expertise 检查员的专业知识

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equipment complexity,设备的复杂性

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type of damage mechanism, 损伤机理类型

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process and metallurgical variations, 工艺和冶金的变化

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inaccessibility for inspection,难以进行检查

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inaccessibility for inspection,难以进行检查

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limitations of inspection and test methods and 检查和测试方法的局限性

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the inspector’s expertise 检查员的专业知识

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Sources of deterioration rate information include (also see Section 8): 恶化率信息的来源包括 a) b) c) d) e)

published data and unpublished company data, 公布和未公布的公司数据 laboratory testing, 实验室测试 in-situ testing and in-service monitoring, 现场测试和在线监测 experience with similar equipment, 与同类设备的经验 previous inspection data. 以前的检测数据

The best information will come from operating experiences where the conditions that led to the observed deterioration rate could realistically be expected to occur in the equipment under consideration. Other sources of information could include databases of plant experience or reliance on expert opinion. The latter method is often used since plant databases, where they exist, sometimes do not contain sufficiently detailed information. 最好的信息将来自运行经验, 其它信息来源可能包括厂里的经验数据库或依赖专家意见补充厂里数据库的不足处.

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恶化率信息的来源包括     

公布和未公布的公司数据实验室测试现场测试和在线监测与同类设备的经验以前的检测数据

公司数据:  厂自运行经验  厂数据资料库  专家意见补充

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Damage rates will often vary as the mechanism progresses. In some cases, the mechanism is self-limiting (i.e. after progressing to a certain point), and damage will nearly arrest. In other cases, damage will occur in a slow, stable manner until it reaches a point where failure occurs. In some cases, damage by one mechanism may progress to a point at which a different mechanism takes over to control the rate of further damage (e.g. pitting that gives rise to stress corrosion cracking).腐蚀率是多变化的, 有的时候加速, 自限, 或从一种损伤机理改变为另种损伤机理,比如点蚀导致环境应力开裂等. The following parameters should be considered in the determination of damage rates: 确定损伤率的应要考虑参数 a) fluid stream composition, including electrolytes and ions in solution; 流体流组成, 包括在溶液电解质和离子 b) the temperature, humidity and corrosiveness of the atmosphere or soil; 温度, 湿度和大气中或土壤的腐蚀性 c) process temperature; 工艺温度 d) the flow velocity;流速 e) the amount of dissolved oxygen; 溶解氧气量

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the phase of the fluid (liquid, vapor, or gas); 流体相 (液体,气体或蒸发体) the pH of the solution; 溶液的pH值 the contaminants in the flow stream; 流体中的污染物 the process operating phase (operation, shutdown, wash, etc.); 操作阶段 (操作中/关断时/清理,等) j) the mechanical properties of the metal (hardness, cold work, grain size, etc.); 材料机械性能 (硬度, 冷作, 晶体大小等) k) the metallurgical properties and corrosion resistance of the alloy; 冶金性能和合金的耐腐蚀性 l) the weld properties: heat treatment, hardness, residual stresses, sensitization, inclusions, etc.; 焊接性: 热处理/硬度/残余应力/敏化/夹杂物等 f) g) h) i)

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m) the component geometry (crevices, local turbulence, etc.); 组件几何 n) the coating and lining condition (no holiday); 涂层和衬垫条件 (无孔) o) the relative size of anodic and cathodic regions; 阳极和阴极区域的相对大小 p) the solubility of corrosion products;腐蚀产物的溶解度 q) the addition of corrosion inhibitors (type, quantity, and distribution); 加入缓蚀剂 (种类/数量以及分布) r) process control and stability. 工艺控制和稳定性

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10.4.3 Determine Failure Mode 确定故障模式 POF analysis is used to evaluate the failure mode (e.g. small hole, crack, catastrophic rupture) and the probability that each failure mode will occur. It is important to link the damage mechanism to the most likely resulting failure mode. For example: a) pitting generally leads to small-hole-sized leaks; 点蚀通常会导致小的孔大小的泄漏 b) stress corrosion cracking can develop into small, through wall cracks or, in some cases, catastrophic rupture;应力腐蚀开裂可发展成小的, 通过墙体裂缝或者, 在某些情况下, 灾难性破裂 c) metallurgical deterioration and mechanical damage can lead to failure modes that vary from small holes to ruptures; 冶金变质和机械损伤可导致失效模式从小孔至破裂 d) general thinning from corrosion often leads to larger leaks or rupture; 广义腐蚀减薄往往会导致大泄漏或破裂 e) localized corrosion can lead to small to medium-sized leaks. 局部腐蚀可导致小到中等规模的泄漏

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Failure mode primarily affects the magnitude of the consequences. For this and other reasons, the probability and consequence analyses should be worked interactively. 失效模式主要影响失效后果的严重性

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a) pitting generally leads to small-holesized leaks; 点蚀通常会导致小的孔大小的泄漏

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a) pitting generally leads to small-holesized leaks; 点蚀通常会导致小的孔大小的泄漏

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a) pitting generally leads to small-holesized leaks; 点蚀通常会导致小的孔大小的泄漏

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b) stress corrosion cracking can develop into small, through wall cracks or, in some cases, catastrophic rupture;应力腐蚀开裂可发展成小的, 通过墙体裂缝或者, 在某些情况下, 灾难性破裂

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c) metallurgical deterioration and mechanical damage can lead to failure modes that vary from small holes to ruptures; 冶金变质和机械损伤可导致失效模式从小孔至破裂

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c) metallurgical deterioration and mechanical damage can lead to failure modes that vary from small holes to ruptures; 冶金变质和机械损伤可导致失效模式从小孔至破裂

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d) general thinning from corrosion often leads to larger leaks or rupture;广义腐蚀减薄往往会导致大泄漏或破裂

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d) general thinning from corrosion often leads to larger leaks or rupture;广义腐蚀减薄往往会导致大泄漏或破裂 API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

d) general thinning from corrosion often leads to larger leaks or rupture;广义腐蚀减薄往往会导致大泄漏或破裂

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e) localized corrosion can lead to small to medium-sized leaks.局部腐蚀可导致小到中等规模的泄漏

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10.4.4 Quantify Effectiveness of Past Inspection Program 量化过去的检验程序的有效性 the combination of nondestructive examination (NDE) methods such as visual, UT, radiographic etc., frequency and coverage/location of inspections] vary in their effectiveness for locating, characterizing and sizing deterioration, and thus for determining deterioration rates. After the likely damage mechanisms have been identified, the inspection program should be evaluated to determine the effectiveness in finding the identified mechanisms.可能的损伤机理已经确定后, 应当评估该检验程序在找到所确定的机制的有效性.

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Limitations in the effectiveness of an inspection program could be due to the following items. 检查程序的有效性的限制 a) Lack of coverage of an area subject to deterioration. 缺乏覆盖受到恶化的区域 b) Inherent limitations of some inspection methods to detect and quantify certain types of deterioration. 一些检查方法固有对某些类型的恶化的局限性 c) Selection of inappropriate inspection methods, techniques and tools. 选择不恰当的检查方法 d) Application of methods and tools by inadequately trained inspection personnel. 训练不足的检验人员 e) Inadequate inspection and examination procedures. 不充分的检查和审查程序

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f) Deterioration rate under some extremes of conditions is so high that failure can occur within a very short time. Even though no deterioration is found during an inspection, failure could still occur as a result of a change or upset in conditions. For example, if a very aggressive acid is carried over from a corrosion resistant part of a system into a downstream vessel that is made of carbon steel, rapid corrosion could result in failure in a few hours or days. Similarly, if an aqueous chloride solution is carried into a stainless steel vessel, chloride stress corrosion cracking could occur very rapidly (depending on the temperature). 极端高劣化率, 导致故障可能发生在很短的时间内(例如: 操作更改或工艺颠覆状况)

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If multiple inspections have been performed, it is important to recognize that the most recent inspection may best reflect current operating conditions. If operating conditions have changed, deterioration rates based on inspection data from the previous operating conditions may not be valid. Determination of inspection effectiveness should consider the following: 检查效果应考虑以下 equipment type; 设备类型 active and credible damage mechanism(s); 积极的和可信的损伤机制 rate of deterioration or susceptibility; 速率或易感性率 NDE methods, coverage and frequency (i.e. ability to detect the specific deterioration); 探伤方法,覆盖范围和频率(对具体的恶化检测能力) e) accessibility to expected deterioration areas. 预期恶化的地区与可达性

a) b) c) d)

The effectiveness of future inspections can be optimized by utilization of NDE methods better suited for the active/credible damage mechanisms, adjusting the inspection coverage, adjusting the inspection frequency or some combination thereof. 未来的检验方法应按照需要优化来达到最佳效果

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10.4.5 Calculate the POF by Deterioration Type 由变质类型计算POF By combining the (1) expected damage mechanism, (2) rate or susceptibility, (3) process monitoring, (4) inspection data and (5) inspection effectiveness, a POF can now be determined for each deterioration type and failure mode. The POF may be determined for future time periods or conditions as well as current. It is important for users to validate that the method used to calculate the POF is in fact thorough and adequate for the users’ needs. 通过结合 (1) 预期的破坏机理, (2) 速率或易感性, (3) 过程监控, (4) 检验数据和 (5) 检验成效, 每个损伤类型和失效模式的失效概率能于确定(包括当前或未来时间段). 注意事项: 用户需要确认所用的概率方法是否彻底和适当.

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11 Assessing Consequences of Failure 失效的后果评估

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Contents 11 Assessing Consequences of Failure 11.1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis 11.2 Types of Consequence Analysis 11.3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis 11.4 Volume of Fluid Released 11.5 Consequence Effect Categories 11.6 Determination of Consequence of Failure

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http://www.northnews.cn/2013/1122/1455937_30.shtml

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11.1 Introduction to Consequence Analysis 后果分析简介 11.1.1 General 总则 The consequence analysis in an RBI program is performed to provide discrimination between equipment items on the basis of the significance of a potential failure. The consequence analysis should be a repeatable, simplified, credible estimate of what might be expected to happen if a failure were to occur in the equipment item being assessed. The COF analysis should be performed to estimate the consequences that occur due to a failure mode typically resulting from an identified damage mechanism(s) (see Section 9). COF分析由于故障模式发生的后果进行估计,RBI程序提供设备之间,识别潜在故障的比重. Consequence should typically be categorized as:通常应归类为 a) safety and health impacts,安全和健康的影响 b) environmental impacts,对环境的影响 c) economic impacts. 经济影响

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Consequence should typically be categorized as: 通常应归类为  safety and health impacts,安全和健康的影响  environmental impacts,对环境的影响  economic impacts. 经济影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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对环境的影响

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安全和健康的影响/ 经济影响

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安全和健康的影响/ 经济影响

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安全和健康的影响/ 经济影响

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安全和健康的影响/ 经济影响

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安全和健康的影响/ 经济影响

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In general, an RBI program will be managed by plant inspectors or inspection engineers, who will normally manage risk by managing the POF with inspection and maintenance planning. They will not normally have much ability to modify the COF. On the other hand, management and process safety personnel may desire to manage the consequence side of the risk equation. Numerous methods for modifying the COF are mentioned in Section 14. For all of these users, the consequence analysis is an aid in establishing a relative risk ranking of equipment items. The consequence analysis should address all credible failure modes to which the equipment item is susceptible. 一般上, RBI程序一旦执行, 是由检验员或检验工程师着手管理. 通常, 通过与检查和维护计划, 管理风险 POF (故障概率) 部分. 他们一般不授权修改 COF (失效后果), 而是前期, 通过设施管理和工艺安全人员做相关的工作. (考试题) POF COF

Managed by Inspector & Inspection Engineer Managed by Management & Process Safety Personnel.

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POF Managed by Inspector & Inspection Engineer (考试题)

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COF Managed by Management & Process Safety Personnel.

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More or less complex and detailed methods of consequence analysis can be used, depending on the desired application for the assessment. The consequence analysis method chosen should have a demonstrated ability to provide the required level of discrimination between higher and lower consequence equipment items. 简单或复杂的后果分析一样都能运用, 选用的运用方法应该是个有能力分辨设备故障后果的高低顺序的方法.

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11.1.2 Loss of Containment 溶液流失 The consequence of loss of containment is generally evaluated as loss of fluid to the external environment. The consequence effects for loss of containment can be generally considered to be in the following categories: 溶液流失一般定义为 – 溶液损失到外部环境, 导致的后果有 1. 2. 3. 4.

safety and health impact, 安全和健康的影响 environmental impact, 对环境的影响 production losses, 生产损失 maintenance and reconstruction costs. 维修和重建费用

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11.1.3 Other Functional Failures Although RBI is mainly concerned with loss of containment failures, other functional failures could be included in an RBI study if a user desired. Other functional failures could include: 此规范主要是针对溶液流失, 在用户要求下也可以覆盖下列功能故障 a) functional or mechanical failure of internal components of pressure containing equipment (e.g. column trays, demister mats, coalescer elements, distribution hardware, etc.);内部组件的功能性或机械故障 b) heat exchanger tube failure; 换热器管故障 c) pressure-relief device failure; 减压装置故障 d) rotating equipment failure (e.g. seal leaks, impeller failures, etc.). 旋转设备故障 NOTE There may be situations where a heat exchanger tube failure could lead to a loss of containment of the heat exchanger or ancillary equipment. These would typically involve leakage from a high-pressure side to a low-pressure side of the exchanger and subsequent breach of containment of the lowpressure side. 换热器管故障, 可能因管内压与管外压差, 带来溶液串通, 导致溶液流失. API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

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These other functional failures are usually covered within RCM programs and therefore are not covered in detail in this document. 其他的功能性故障通常在 RCM涵盖范围内, 这文件不包含.

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11.2 Types of Consequence Analysis 后果分析的类型 11.2.1 General 总则 The following paragraphs discuss different approaches to the determination of consequences of failure. For the purposes of the discussion, these approaches have been categorized as “qualitative” or “quantitative.” However, it should be recognized that “qualitative” and “quantitative” are the end points of a continuum rather than distinctive approaches (see Figure 3). 归类为“定性”或“定量” 或两者之间. Table 3—Six Level Table

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11.2.2 Qualitative Consequences Analysis 定性后果分析 A qualitative method involves identification of the units, systems or equipment, and the hazards present as a result of operating conditions and process fluids. On the basis of expert knowledge and experience, the consequences of failure (safety, health, environmental and financial impacts) can be estimated separately for each unit, system, equipment group or individual equipment item. For a qualitative method, a consequences category (such as “A” through “E” or “high,” “medium,” or “low”) is typically assigned for each unit, system, grouping or equipment item. It may be appropriate to associate a numerical value, such as cost (see 11.3.3), with each consequence category. 评估结果可以以高低类别或数值(如成本)表达. 专家的知识和经验的基础上评估故障后果(安全/健康/环境和财务影响)

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故障后果评估的结果可以以高低类别或数值(如成本)表达.

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11.2.3 Quantitative Consequences Analysis 定量后果分析 A quantitative method involves using a logic model depicting combinations of events to represent the effects of failure on people, property, the business and the environment. Quantitative models usually contain one or more standard failure scenarios or outcomes and calculate COF based on: 定量后果分析, 使用一个逻辑模型描绘事件的组合来表示故障对人员, 财产, 业务和环境的影响.定量模型通常包含一个或多个标准的故障情况或分析结果

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COF based on; 故障后果基于  type of process fluid in equipment; 设备工艺流体的类型  state of the process fluid inside the equipment (solid, liquid, or gas); 工艺流体的状态(液态,气态,含固态等)  key properties of process fluid (molecular weight, boiling point, auto-ignition temperature, ignition energy, density, flammability, toxicity, etc.); 工艺流体的主要特性  process operating variables such as temperature and pressure; 操作变量,例如温度和压力  mass of inventory available for release in the event of a leak; 泄漏时可释放的质量

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 failure mode and resulting leak size;失效模式和由此产生的泄漏大小  state of fluid after release in ambient conditions (solid, gas, or liquid). 在环境条件释放后的状态(液态,气态,含固态等) Results of a quantitative analysis are usually numeric. Consequence categories may be also used to organize more quantitatively assessed consequences into manageable groups. 定量分析的结果通常是数字. 以类别表达后果,也可以运用来进行设备组合管理

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11.3 Units of Measure in Consequence Analysis 后果分析单位 11.3.1 General 总则 Different types of consequences may be described best by different measures. The RBI analyst should consider the nature of the hazards present and select appropriate units of measure. However, the analyst should bear in mind that the resultant consequences should be comparable, as much as possible, for subsequent risk prioritization and inspection planning. 产生的后果应具有可比性, 以便执行后续风险优先级和检查规划运作. The following provide some units of measure of consequence that can be used in an RBI assessment. 评估故障结果的一些估量有     

Safety Cost Affected Area Environmental Damage Other Considerations

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评估故障结果的一些估量有     

Safety Cost Environmental Damage Affected Area Other Considerations

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11.3.2 Safety Safety consequences are often expressed as a numerical value or characterized by a consequence category associated with the severity of potential injuries that may result from an undesirable event. For example, safety consequences could be expressed based on the severity of an injury (e.g. fatality, serious injury, medical treatment, first aid) or expressed as a category linked to the injury severity (e.g. A through E). An approach for assigning monetary values to safety and health consequences is included in API 581. However, the FAA has published material on this topic. If it is necessary to convert safety and health consequences into monetary units for subsequent risk ranking or analysis, the analyst should document the basis for the values assigned. 安全后果往往以一个数值表现, 然而用经济价值作为表达方式也被 API 581 采纳. 用经济价值作为表达方式必须分析应该记录分配的值的基础.美国联邦航空管理局有出刊相关的主题.

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安全后果用经济价值作为表达方式也被 API 581采纳.

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11.3.3 Cost 费用,价值 Cost is commonly used as an indicator of potential consequences. Consequences may be expressed in relative monetary units (e.g. dollars) to the maximum extent practical with an understanding that the numbers are typically not absolute. For example, low, moderate and high categories could be assigned values of $100,000, $1,000,000 and $10,000,000 respectively. This will permit adding the different consequences of a single event and facilitate comparisons of risk from one process unit to another. Potential injuries and fatalities may be considered separately, with a maximum acceptable probability of occurrence assigned. It is possible, although not always credible, to assign costs to almost any type of consequence. 虽然不是完全可靠, 几乎任何类型的后果与成本来分配挂钩是可能的.

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Typical consequences that can be expressed in “cost” include: 可以用 “费用” 来表达的故障后果有以下 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14.

production loss due to rate reduction or downtime, 由于或停机生产利率降低损失 deployment of emergency response equipment and personnel, 部署的应急设备和人员 lost product from a release, 流失产品经济损失 degradation of product quality, 产品质量的劣化 replacement or repair of damaged equipment,更换或维修损坏的设备 property damage offsite, 外场产业损坏 spill/release cleanup onsite or offsite, 内外场溢出/释放物清理 business interruption costs (lost profits),业务中断成本(利润损失) loss of market share, 失去市场份额 injuries or fatalities, 受伤或死亡 land reclamation, 土地改造 litigation, 诉讼, fines, 罚金 goodwill. 企业信誉

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The above list is reasonably comprehensive, but in practice some of these costs are neither practical nor necessary to use in an RBI assessment. 上面的列表是相当全面的, 但在实践中有些用来代表故障后果的 “成本($) / 费用” 既不现实也无必要.

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Cost generally requires fairly detailed information to fully assess. It is possible, although not always practical, to assign a monetary value to almost any type of consequence. The cost associated with most of the consequences listed above can be calculated using standard methods. Information such as product value, capacity, equipment costs, repair costs, personnel resources, and environmental damage may be difficult to derive, and the manpower required to perform a complete financial-based consequence analysis may be limited depending on the complexity of the relationship of failure to lost opportunity cost. However, expressing consequences in monetary units has the advantage of permitting a direct comparison of the various categories of consequences on a common basis. Therefore, it is often better to provide approximations or “best estimates” than to use only verbal descriptions (see 11.2.2). 虽然很多时候, 货币价值不能很完善来表达故障后果, 货币单位表达故障后果具有, 允许不同价值额来类别的后果, 使被评估设备,能在同一个基础上直接比较拥有很大的优势.

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Instead of determining point values or unique ranges of economic loss for each consequence scenario, consequences may be placed into categories that have pre-defined ranges. Table 3 provides an example of this. The ranges may be adjusted for the unit or plant to be considered. For example, $10,000,000 may be a catastrophic loss for a small company, but a large company may consider only losses greater than $1,000,000,000 to be catastrophic. 表3, 用类别代号或描述来反映经济价值. 不同的企业的同样代号有不同的价值额.

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11.3.4 Affected Area 受影响的区域 Affected area is also used to describe potential consequences in the field of risk assessment. As its name implies, affected area represents the amount of surface area of the plot plan that experiences an effect (toxic dose, thermal radiation, explosion overpressure, etc.) greater than a pre-defined limiting value. Based on the thresholds chosen, anything (i.e. personnel, equipment, environment) within the area will be affected by the consequences of the hazard. In order to rank consequences according to affected area, it is typically assumed that equipment or personnel at risk are evenly distributed throughout the unit. A more rigorous approach would assign a population density with time or equipment value density to different areas of the unit. 受影响的划分是评估区域内人员, 设备, 环境会受到危险的后果. 为了根据受影响地区排名后果, 它通常假定设备或人员的风险是均匀分布在整个单元. 更加的深入分析如果需要的话,能把设备集中区域,人员分布,时间/人员分布动态,等等,作为考虑项.

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The units for affected area consequence (square feet or square meters) do not readily translate into our everyday experiences and thus there is some reluctance to use this measure. It has, however, several features that merit consideration. The affected area approach has the characteristic of being able to compare toxic and flammable consequences by relating to the physical area impacted by a release. A drawback for area consequences is that it does not include the business impact of failure, which can often be the largest portion of total consequence. 影响区划分具有很好的有毒和易燃释放的影响的物理区域, 后果比较的。然而运用受影响区域划分,在行业上受到一定的阻力, 因为它不包括故障后果对业务的影响(经济损失), 而这往往是总结果占最大份额.

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11.3.5 Environmental Damage 环境损害 Environmental consequence measures are the least developed among those currently used for RBI. A common unit of measure for environmental damage is not available in the current technology, making environmental consequences difficult to assess. Typical parameters used that provide an indirect measure of the degree of environmental damage are: 环境损失时在RBI里最为缺少开发的领域, 也没有共同认同的计量方法. 典型提供环境破坏的程度的参数间接量度有 a) b) c) d)

acres of land affected per year; 每年受影响亩地 miles of shoreline affected per year; 每年海岸线受到影响英里数 number of biological or human-use resources consumed; 消耗的生物或人类使用的资源数量 the portrayal of environmental damage almost invariably leads to the use of cost, in terms of dollars per year, for the loss and restoration of environmental resources. 环境破坏的写照几乎总是导致使用年度成本(对环境资源的丧失和恢复)

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11.3.6 Categorizing Safety, Health, and Environmental Consequences 安全,健康和环境后果分类 Examples of placing safety, health and environmental consequences into categories is provided in Table 4 and Table 5. Table 4 shows three levels, while Table 5 shows six levels. In practice, other numbers of levels could be used. 表4和表5中提供安全,健康和环境后果分类 (其他等级数可以按照个别加减) Table 4 - Three Level Safety, Health and Environmental Consequence Categories

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Table 5â&#x20AC;&#x201D;Six Level Safety, Health and Environmental Consequence Categories

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11.3.7 Other Considerations 其他考虑事项 The following should be considered in addition to the consequences described above. It is usually possible to develop a monetary estimate for these considerations: 其他考虑事项, 通常是可以货币估计这些考虑; a) loss of reputation leading to loss of market share, 名誉损失, 导致市场份额的损失 b) future insurability, 再保金的变动 c) regulatory actions curtailing production or raising costs. 法定监管措施削减生产或增加成本

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11.4 Volume of Fluid Released 流体释放体积 In most consequence evaluations, a key element in determining the magnitude of the consequence is the volume of fluid released. The volume released is typically derived from a combination of the following items below. 大多数故障结果的评估, 在确定故障结果的幅度的一个关键因素是流体释放的体积 a) Volume of Fluid Available for Release—Volume of fluid in the piece of equipment and connected equipment items. In theory, this is the amount of fluid between isolation valves that can be quickly closed . 可以快速关闭隔离阀之间的流体量 b) Failure mode. 失效模式 c) Leak rate. 泄漏率 d) Detection and isolation time. 检测和隔离时间

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In some cases, the volume released will be the same as the volume available for release. Usually, there are safeguards and procedures in place so that the breach of containment can be isolated and the volume released will be less than the volume available for release.通常, 有保障措施和程序到位使泄漏可以被孤立以减少流体释放体积.

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The cost of the lost fluid may be calculated by: 丢失的流体的成本可以通过计算 Lost Fluid Cost = Volume of Fluid Lost × Value of the Fluid per Unit Volume 失去了流体成本=体积流体的失落×每单位体积的流体价值

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11.5 Consequence Effect Categories 故障结果影响分类 11.5.1 General 总则 The failure of the pressure boundary and subsequent release of fluids may cause safety, health, environmental, facility and business damage. The RBI analyst should consider the nature of the hazards and assure that appropriate factors are considered for the equipment, system, unit, or plant being assessed. Regardless of whether a more qualitative or quantitative analysis is used, the major factors to consider in evaluating the consequences of failure include: 失效后果评估的主要考虑因素评估包括 a) b) c) d) e) f)

flammable events (fire and explosion), 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸) toxic releases,有毒物质排放 releases of other hazardous fluids, 其他危险液体排放 environmental consequences, 环境后果 production consequences (business interruption),生产的后果(业务中断) maintenance and reconstruction impact. 维修改造的影响

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11.5.6 Production (Business Interruption) Consequences 生产 (营业中断) 的后果 ……………….Business interruption consequences; a) ability to compensate for damaged equipment (e.g. spare equipment, rerouting, etc.); 弥补损坏的设备能力(备用设备, 重新布置管路等) b) potential for damage to nearby equipment (knock-on damage); 潜在损坏附近的设备 -连锁伤害 c) potential for production loss to other units. 潜在影响其他设备生产损失

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11.5.2 Flammable Events (Fire and Explosion) 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸) Flammable events occur when both a leak and ignition occur. The ignition could be through an ignition source or autoignition. Flammable events can cause damage in two ways: (1) thermal radiation and (2) blast overpressure. (考试题) Most of the damage from thermal effects tends to occur at close range, but blast effects can cause damage over a larger distance from the blast center. Following are typical categories of fire and explosion events: 易燃事件可能是通过点火源或自燃, 以下是火灾和爆炸事件的典型类别 a) b) c) d) e)

vapor cloud explosion,油气云爆炸 pool fire,池火 jet fire,喷射火 flash fire, 闪火 boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE). 沸腾液体扩展蒸气(可能是水蒸气)爆炸

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The flammable events consequence is typically derived from a combination of the following elements:易燃事件的后果通常来自以下元素的组合： inherent tendency to ignite, 内在点燃趋势 volume of fluid released,流体的体积泄露 ability to flash to a vapor,急骤蒸发为蒸汽 possibility of auto-ignition,自动点火的可能性 effects of higher pressure or higher temperature operations, 更高的压力或更高的温度下操作的影响 f) engineered safeguards, 工程保障 g) personnel and equipment exposed to damage. 人员和设备受到损坏 a) b) c) d) e)

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Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE). 沸腾液体扩展蒸气(可能是水蒸气)爆炸

http://www.sozogaku.com/fkd/en/cfen/CC1300001.html

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Boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE). 沸腾液体扩展蒸气(可能是水蒸气)爆炸

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Flammable Events (Fire and Explosion) 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸)

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Flammable Events (Fire and Explosion) 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸)

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11.5.3 Toxic Releases 有毒物质释放 Toxic releases, in RBI, are only addressed when they affect personnel (site and public). These releases can cause effects at greater distances than flammable events. Unlike flammable releases, toxic releases do not require an additional event (e.g. ignition, as in the case of flammables) to cause personnel injuries. The RBI program typically focuses on acute toxic risks that create an immediate danger, rather than chronic risks from low-level exposures. The toxic consequence is typically derived from the following elements: 此风险评估通常着重于建立即时危险的急性中毒性风险, 而不是从少量接触慢性风险.有毒的后果通常是源于以下元素 a) volume of fluid released and toxicity, 释放和毒性的液量 b) ability to disperse under typical process and environmental conditions, 在典型的过程和环境条件下分散能力 c) detection and mitigation systems, 检测和缓解系统 d) population in the vicinity of the release. 释放点附近人口分布

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此风险评估通常着重于建立即时危险的急性中毒性风险, 而不是日常操作从少量接触慢性风险

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11.5.4 Releases of Other Hazardous Fluids 其他危险液体释放 Other hazardous fluid releases are of most concern in RBI assessments when they affect personnel. These materials can cause thermal or chemical burns if a person comes in contact with them. Common fluids, including steam, hot water, acids, and caustics can have a safety consequence of a release and should be considered as part of an RBI program.其他危险液体释放是RBI最值得关注的评估项,接触这些材料会引起热或化学灼伤. 常见的其他危险液体, 包括蒸汽, 热水,酸和苛性碱

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Generally, the consequence of this type of release is significantly lower than for flammable or toxic releases because the affected area is likely to be much smaller and the magnitude of the hazard is less. Key parameters in this evaluation are as follows. 通常, 这种类型的释放的结果比易燃或有毒物质排放显著较低, 因为受影响的区域很可能较小所导致的危险的幅度也小.评估主要参数如下 a) Volume of fluid released. 释放流体的体积 b) Personnel density in the area. 区域人员密度 c) Type of fluid and nature of resulting injury. 流体以及由此产生的损伤性质的类型 d) Safety systems (e.g. personnel protective clothing, showers, etc.). 安全系统(如人员的防护服, 淋浴等) e) Environmental damage if the spill is not contained. 泄漏带来的环境损害 f) Equipment Damage - For some reactive fluids, contact with equipment or piping may result in aggressive deterioration and failure. 设备损坏 – 泄漏液体和设备接触带来的腐蚀加速等.

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11.5.5 Environmental Consequences 环境后果 Environmental consequences are an important component to any consideration of overall risk in a processing plant. The RBI program typically focuses on acute and immediate environmental risks, rather than chronic risks from low level emissions. The environmental consequence is typically derived from the following elements: 通常侧重于急性和即时环境风险.而不是从较低排放量长期风险 a) b) c) d) e)

volume of fluid released; 流体的体积释放 ability to flash to vapor; 蒸发的能力 leak containment safeguards; 泄漏围堵的保障 environmental resources affected; 影响环境资源 regulatory consequence (e.g. citations for violations, fines, potential shutdown by authorities). 监管后果

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Liquid releases may result in contamination of soil, groundwater, and/or open water. Gaseous releases are equally important but more difficult to assess since the consequence typically relates to local regulatory constraints and the penalty for exceeding those constraints.液体释放可能会导致土壤, 地下水和/或开放水域的污染.气体释放也同样重要, 但更难以评估其后果通常涉及到当地的监管约束和惩罚超过某些限制.

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The consequences of environmental damage are best understood by cost. The cost may be calculated as follows:环境破坏的后果由成本最好的理解 Environmental Cost = Cost for Cleanup + Fines + Other Costs 环境成本=成本为清理+罚款+其它费用 The cleanup cost will vary depending on many factors. Some key factors are listed as follows.清理费用将取决于许多因素而变化 a) Type of Spill—Aboveground, belowground, surface water etc. 外溢类型 - 地上,地下,地表水等 b) Type of liquid. 液体型 c) Method of clean-up. 清理方法 d) Volume of spill. 泄漏量 e) Accessibility and terrain at the spill location. 泄漏位置地形和可达性

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泄漏位置地形和可达性

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泄漏位置地形和可达性

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泄漏位置地形和可达性

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泄漏位置地形和可达性

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泄漏位置地形和可达性

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The fine component cost will depend on the regulations and laws of the applicable local and federal jurisdictions. The other cost component would include costs that may be associated with the spill such as litigation from landowners or other parties. This component is typically specific to the locale of the facility. 罚款项 - 取决于当地和联邦司法管辖区的法律和法规其他成本组成将包括可能, 如从土地所有者或其他人提起诉讼的与泄漏相关费用. 这个构成要素, 通常是备的区域而别.

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11.5.6 Production (Business Interruption) Consequences 生产 (营业中断) 的后果 Production consequences generally occur with any loss of containment of the process fluid and often with a loss of containment of a utility fluid (water, steam, fuel gas, acid, caustic, etc.). These production consequences may be in addition to or independent of flammable, toxic, hazardous or environmental consequences. The main production consequences for RBI are financial. The financial consequences could include the value of the lost process fluid and business interruption. The cost of the lost fluid can be calculated fairly easily by multiplying the volume released by the value of the fluid lost. Calculation of the business interruption is more complex. 主要生产的后果是经济损失(能包括失去的工艺流体和业务中断的价值).

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The selection of a specific method depends on:具体方法的选择取决于 a) the scope and level of detail of the study, 研究的目的与细节深度 b) availability of business interruption data. 业务中断数据可得到性 A simple method for estimating the business interruption consequence is to use the equation: 估算的营业中断的后果的一种简单方法 Business Interruption = Process Unit Daily Value × Downtime (Days) 业中断=处理单元每日价值×停机时间(天) The unit daily value could be on a revenue or profit basis. The downtime estimate would represent the time required to get back into production. The Dow Fire and Explosion Index is a typical method of estimating downtime after a fire or explosion. 停机时间估算恢复生间隔产所需的时间

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主要生产的后果是经济损失 (能包括失去的工艺流体和业务中断的价值).

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DOW灾和爆炸指数提供, 火灾或爆炸后估计停机时间的典型方法指南.

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More rigorous methods for estimating business interruption consequences may take into account factors such as:更严格的估计营业中断的后果方法有 a) ability to compensate for damaged equipment (e.g. spare equipment, rerouting, etc.); 弥补损坏的设备能力(备用设备, 重新布置管路等) b) potential for damage to nearby equipment (knock-on damage); 潜在损坏附近的设备 -连锁伤害 c) potential for production loss to other units. 潜在影响其他设备生产损失

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Business interruption consequences; a) ability to compensate for damaged equipment (e.g. spare equipment, rerouting, etc.); 弥补损坏的设备能力(备用设备, 重新布置管路等) b) potential for damage to nearby equipment (knock-on damage); 潜在损坏附近的设备 -连锁伤害 c) potential for production loss to other units. 潜在影响其他设备生产损失

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Site specific circumstances should be considered in the business interruption analysis to avoid over or under stating this consequence. Examples of these considerations include: 在对业务中断分析时,应考虑个别特定的状况, 这些考虑例子包括 a) lost production may be compensated at another under-utilized or idle facility; 生产损失可能在另一个未充分利用或闲置设施进行补偿 b) loss of profit could be compounded if other facilities use the unit’s output as a feedstock or processing fluid;利润损失可能会加剧, 如果其他设施使用本机的输出作为原料或加工液 c) repair of small damage cost equipment may take as long as large damage cost equipment; 修补小设成本备的损坏所需要的时间可能长达大成本损害设备的时间.

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d) extended downtime may result in losing customers or market share, thus extending loss of profit beyond production restart;延长停机时间, 可能会导致失去客户或市场份额 e) loss of hard to get or unique equipment items may require extra time to obtain replacements; 有的特殊设备需要更加长的更换 f) insurance coverage.保险范围

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11.5.7 Maintenance and Reconstruction Impact 维护和重构的影响 Maintenance and reconstruction impact represents the effort required to correct the failure and to fix or replace equipment damaged in the subsequent events (e.g. fire, explosion). The maintenance and reconstruction impact should be accounted for in the RBI program. Maintenance impact will generally be measured in monetary terms and typically includes: 维护和重构的影响一般会用金钱来衡量 a) repairs, 维修费用 b) equipment replacement. 更换费用

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Flammable Events (Fire and Explosion) 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸)

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Flammable Events (Fire and Explosion) 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸)

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Flammable Events (Fire and Explosion) 易燃事件(火灾和爆炸)

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Consequence cost: Unscheduled Repairs, 计划外维修费用

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Consequence cost: Unscheduled Repairs, 计划外维修费用

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Consequence cost: Equipment replacement. 更换费用

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Consequence cost: Equipment replacement. 更换费用

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Repair of small damage cost equipment may take as long as large damage cost equipment; 修补小设成本备的损坏所需要的时间可能长达大成本损害设备的时间.

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11.6 Determination of COF 故障后果的测定 11.6.1 General 总则 The consequences of releasing a hazardous material can be estimated in 6 (six) steps (see Figure 5), with each step performed using the assumption of a specific scenario and the steps should be repeated for each credible scenario. The steps are as follows: 释放有害物质的后果可以以六个步骤来估计. 假设的特定的场景使用上述每个步骤进行分析. 每个可信的情景需要进行再次独立的分析. a) estimate the release rate,估计的释放速率 b) estimate total volume of fluid that will be released, 估计将被释放流体的总体积 c) determine if the fluid is dispersed in a rapid manner (instantaneous) or slowly (continuous),确定该流体分散以快速方式(瞬时)或缓慢地(连续) d) determine if the fluid disperses in the atmosphere as a liquid or a gas, 确定流体在大气中分散成液体或气体 e) estimate the impacts of any existing mitigation system, 估计任何现有的减灾系统的影响 f) estimate the consequences.估计后果 API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

The steps are as follows: 释放有害物质的后果可以以六个步骤来估计. 假设的特定的场景使用上述每个步骤进行分析. 每个可信的情景需要进行再次独立的分析. a) estimate the release rate, 估计的释放速率 b) estimate total volume of fluid that will be released, 估计将被释放流体的总体积 c) determine if the fluid is dispersed in a rapid manner (instantaneous) or slowly (continuous), 确定该流体分散以快速方式(瞬时)或缓慢地(连续) d) determine if the fluid disperses in the atmosphere as a liquid or a gas, 确定流体在大气中分散成液体或气体 e) estimate the impacts of any existing mitigation system, 估计任何现有的减灾系统的影响 f) estimate the consequences. 估计后果

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a) estimate the release rate, 估计的释放速率 b) estimate total volume of fluid that will be released, 估计将被释放流体的总体积 c) determine if the fluid is dispersed in a rapid manner (instantaneous) or slowly (continuous), 确定该流体分散以快速方式(瞬时)或缓慢地(连续) d) determine if the fluid disperses in the atmosphere as a liquid or a gas, 确定流体在大气中分散成液体或气体 e) estimate the impacts of any existing mitigation system, 估计任何现有的减灾系统的影响 f) estimate the consequences. 估计后果 API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

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Figure 5â&#x20AC;&#x201D;Determination of COF

11.6.2 Factors for Estimating Consequences 估算后果的因素 Estimate the consequences of a failure from equipment items considering such factors as (1) physical properties of the contained material, (2) its toxicity and (3) flammability, (4) type of release and release duration, (5) weather conditions and dispersion of the released contents, (6) escalation effects, and (7) mitigation actions. (8) Consider the impact on plant personnel and equipment, (9) population in the nearby communities, and (10) the environment. (11) Lost production, (12) loss of raw material and (13) other losses should also be considered. 估算后果的因素应当是全面化的,以上标记为应考虑的事项.

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用来估算后果的因素 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13.

physical properties of the contained material,物理性质 its toxicity and 毒性 flammability, 可燃性 type of release and release duration, 释放型和释放期 weather conditions and dispersion of the released contents, 气候,释放扩散 escalation effects, and 升级效应 mitigation actions. 缓解措施 Consider the impact on plant personnel and equipment 对工厂人员设备的影响 population in the nearby communities, and 周边人员密度 the environment. 环境影响 Lost production, 生产损失 loss of raw material and 原料损失 other losses should also be considered.其他应当考虑的损失

估算后果的因素应当是全面化的,以上标记为应考虑的事项. API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

Several credible consequence scenarios may result from a single failure mode (release) and consequences should be determined by constructing one or more scenarios to describe a credible series of events following the initial failure. For example, a failure may be a small hole resulting from general corrosion. If the contained fluid is flammable, the consequence scenarios could include: small release without ignition, small release with ignition and small release with ignition and subsequent catastrophic failure (rupture) of the equipment item. 一个单一的故障模式可能导致几个可信的后果的情况.例如，一个故障可能是从一般的腐蚀产生的一个小孔, 如果包含的液体是易燃.其后果的情况可能包括;  small release without ignition,小的释放无点燃  small release with ignition and 小释放带点燃  small release with ignition and subsequent catastrophic failure (rupture) of the equipment item小释放带点燃后续导致灾难性故障(破裂)

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The following shows how a consequence scenario may be constructed. 下面显示了一个后果的情况的筑建构造 a) Consequence Phase 1—Discharge: Consider the type of discharge (sudden vs slow release of contents) and its duration. 结果第1阶段- 释放:考虑释放的类型(突然与缓释) b) Consequence Phase 2—Dispersion: Consider the dispersion of the released contents due to weather conditions. 结果第2阶段- 释放:考虑由于天气条件, 释放的释放体分散， c) Consequence Phase 3—Flammable Events: The consequences should be estimated for the scenario based on the flammability of the released contents (i.e. impact of a resulting fire or explosion on plant personnel and equipment, community, environment) (see 11.5.2). 结果第3阶段 - 易燃事件: 根据的释放内容物的可燃性的情景估计后果 (火灾或爆炸导致对工厂人员和设备,社会,环境影响)

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d) Consequence Phase 4—Toxic Releases: The consequences should be estimated for the scenario based on the toxicity of the released contents (i.e. impact due to toxicity on plant personnel, community and the environment) (see 11.5.3). 结果第4阶段 - 有毒物质排放:基于所述释放的毒性场景(由于毒性对工厂人员, 社区和环境的影响) e) Consequence Phase 5—Releases of Other Hazardous Fluids: The consequences should be estimated for the scenario based on the characteristics of the released contents (i.e. impact due to thermal or chemical burns on plant personnel, community and the environment) (see 11.5.4).结果第5期 - 释放的其他危险液体：基于释放的其他危险液体特征场景(即由于热或化学灼伤对工厂人员, 社区和环境的影响) f) Consequence Phase 6: The potential number of fatalities and injuries resulting from each scenario should be estimated. Different scenarios, with different associated probabilities, should be developed as appropriate. 结果第6阶段：应估计从每个方案造成死亡的伤害的潜在数量. 应适当的在不同的场景在不同的关联下来制定概率， API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

11.6.3 Factors for More Rigorous Methods 更为严格的方法因素 Each scenario will have an associated overall probability of occurrence that will be lower than the probability of the failure itself so that the POF and COF should be developed interactively(?). After the scenarios have been developed and potential consequences estimated, acceptable ways to list consequences include: 可以接受潜在后果, 列出方法有;  classify consequence into three or more categories (e.g. a five-category classification system might be very low, low, moderate, high, very high); 分类结果为三个或更多类别- 例如一个五级分类制度可能非常低, 低, 中, 高, 很高.  rank consequence on a scale (e.g. a scale might be from 1 to 10); 排名结果-例如的规模可能是从1到10.  measure consequence (e.g. determine the estimated number of fatalities for a scenario and the economic losses in monetary units). 测量结果-例如以货币单位的经济损失死亡人数的估计数.

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12 Risk Determination, Assessment and Management 风险确定, 评估和管理

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Contents 12 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management 12.1 Purpose 12.2 Determination of Risk 12.3 Risk Management Decisions and Acceptable Levels of Risk 12.4 Sensitivity Analysis 12.5 Assumptions 12.6 Risk Presentation 12.7 Establishing Acceptable Risk Thresholds 12.8 Risk Management

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12.1 Purpose 目的 This section describes the process of determining risk by combining the results of work done as described in the previous two sections. It also provides guidelines for prioritizing and assessing the acceptability of risk with respect to risk criteria. This work process leads to creating and implementing a risk management plan. Risk should be determined by combining the POF (results of work done as described in Section 10) and the COF (results of the work done as described in Section 11). 此章节, 提供有关风险的优先次序的准则和评估风险的可接受性准则,这项工作过程导致建立和实施风险管理计划. The general form of the risk equation should be as follows: 风险方程的一般形式应该如下 Risk = Probability × Consequence 风险 = 概率 × 后果

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12.2 Determination of Risk 风险的确定 12.2.1 Determination of the Probability of a Specific Consequence 测定特定后果的概率 Once the probabilities of failure and failure mode(s) have been determined for the relevant damage mechanisms (see Section 10), the probability of each credible consequence scenario should be determined. In other words, the loss of containment failure may only be the first event in a series of events that lead to a specific consequence. The probability of credible events leading up to the specific consequence should be factored into the probability of the specific consequence occurring. 可信的事件发生的概率,导致特定的”后果”(COF – specific scenario 特定的场景) 应考虑的具体(顺序进程) ”后果” 发生的概率(POF)

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For example, after a loss of containment:例如, 溶液流失后  the first event may be initiation or failure of safeguards (isolation, alarms, etc.); 第一个事件可能引发或失败启动保护措施 (隔离, 警报, 等)  the second event may be dispersion, dilution or accumulation of the fluid; 第二个事件可能会是溶液的分散, 稀释或流体的积累  the third event may be initiation of or failure to initiate preventative action (shutting down nearby ignition sources, neutralizing the fluid, etc.);第三事件可以启动或启动失败的预防措施 (关闭附近的点火源, 中和液, 等)  and so on until the specific consequence event (fire, toxic release, injury, environmental release, etc.). 直到特定的后果事件发生(火灾, 有毒的释放, 损伤, 环境释放, 等)

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It is important to understand this linkage between the POF and the probability of possible resulting incidents. The probability of a specific consequence is tied to the severity of the consequence and may differ considerably from the probability of the equipment failure itself. Probabilities of incidents (failure scenario) generally decrease with the severity of the incident. For example, the probability of an event resulting in a fatality will generally be less than the probability that the event will result in a first aid or medical treatment injury. It is important to understand this relationship. 认识, 设备故障概率 (POF) 和可能产生的事件的概率之间的联系是很重要. 一个特定的后果的概率与后果的严重程度和设备故障本身可能的概率大大不同. 事件发生概率一般会随事件的严重程度, 减少.

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事件发生概率

Personnel inexperienced in risk assessment methods often link the POF with the most severe consequences that can be envisioned. An extreme example would be coupling the POF of a damage mechanism where the mode of failure is a small hole leak with the consequence of a major fire. This linkage would lead to an overly conservative risk assessment since a small leak will rarely lead to a major fire. Each type of damage mechanism has its own characteristic failure mode(s). For a specific damage mechanism, the expected mode of failure should be taken into account when considering the probability of incidents in the aftermath of an equipment failure. For instance, the consequences expected from a small leak could be very different than the consequences expected from a brittle fracture. 每种类型的损伤机理有其自身失效模式特点. 缺乏风险评估方法经验的人员往往会错误的关联失效模式与损伤机理. 比如点蚀导致小孔泄漏, 错误的关联到重大火灾事件.

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The example in Figure 5 serves to illustrate how the probability of a specific consequence could be determined. The example has been simplified and the numbers used are purely hypothetical. 说明一个特定的后果的概率的确定方法 (简化和使用的数字是纯粹的假设)

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Figure 5â&#x20AC;&#x201D;Determination of COF

Figure 6â&#x20AC;&#x201D;Example of Calculating the Probability of a Specific Consequence

EXAMPLE: An equipment item containing a flammable fluid is being assessed.

EXAMPLE: An equipment item containing a flammable fluid is being assessed. The probability of a specific consequence should be the product of the probability of each event that could result in the specific consequence. In this example, the specific consequence being evaluated is a fire (an example event tree starting with a loss of containment is shown below). The probability of a fire would be: Probability of Fire = (Probability of Failure) × (Probability of Ignition) Probability of Fire = 0.001 per year × 0.01 = 0.00001 or 1 × 10-5 per year The probability of no fire encompasses two scenarios (loss of containment without ignition and no loss of containment). The probability of no fire would be: Probability of No Fire = (Probability of Failure × Probability of Non-ignition) + Probability of No Failure Probability of No Fire = (0.001 per year × 0.99) + 0.999 per year = 0.99999 per year NOTE The probability of all consequence scenarios should equal 1.0. In the example, the probability of the specific consequence of a fire (1 × 10-5 per year) plus the probability of no fire (0.999999 per year) equals 1.0. If the consequence of a fire had been assessed at $1 × 107 then the resulting risk would be: Risk of Fire = (1 × 10-5 per year) × ($1 × 107) = $100/year

Figure 6â&#x20AC;&#x201D;Example of Calculating the Probability of a Specific Consequence

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NOTE The overall risk must include the probability of loss of containment. For example, if the probability of loss of containment is 0.1, the overall risk above is 0.1 Ă&#x2014; $100/year = $10/year.

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Typically, there will be other credible consequences that should be evaluated. However, it is often possible to determine a dominant probability / consequence pair, such that it is not necessary to include every credible scenario in the analysis. Engineering judgment and experience should be used to eliminate trivial cases. 通常情况下, 会有很多其他可信的概率/后果组合,但是分析时,只需要选择较为显著的概率/后果组合. 真确的工程判断和经验应该用来消除微不足道的概率/后果组合.

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12.2.2 Calculate Risk 计算风险 Referring back to the risk equation: Risk = Probability × Consequence It is now possible to calculate the risk for each specific consequence. The risk equation can now be stated as: Risk of a Specific Consequence = (Probability of a Specific Consequence) × (Specific Consequence) The total risk is the sum of the individual risks for each specific consequence. Often one probability/consequence pair will be dominant and the total risk can be approximated by the risk of the dominant scenario. For the example mentioned in 12.2.1, if the consequence of a fire had been assessed at $1 × 107 then the resulting risk would be: Risk of Fire = (1 × 10–5 per year) × ($1 × 107) = $100/year Overall risk?

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If probability and consequence are not expressed as numerical values, risk is usually determined by plotting the probability and consequence on a risk matrix (see 12.6). Probability and consequence pairs for various scenarios may be plotted to determine risk of each scenario. Note that when a risk matrix is used, the probability to be plotted should be the probability of the associated consequence, not the POF. Also note that the overall risk must include the probability of loss of containment. For example, if the probability of loss of containment is 0.1, the overall risk above is 0.1 × $100/year = $10/year. 使用风险矩阵, 要绘制的概率应该是相关情景的结果的概率而不是故障概率. 总体风险 = 情景风险 x 溶液流失概率

Note that when a risk matrix is used, the probability to be plotted should be the probability of the associated consequence, not the POF. API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

Probability of the associated consequence

Consequence of failure Increase severity

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12.3 Risk Management Decisions and Acceptable Levels of Risk 风险管理决策和可接受的风险水平 12.3.1 Risk Acceptance 接受风险 Risk-based inspection is a tool to provide an analysis of the risks of loss of containment of equipment. Many companies have corporate risk criteria defining acceptable and prudent 谨慎 levels of safety, environmental and financial risks. These risk criteria should be used when making risk-based inspection decisions. Because each company may be different in terms of acceptable risk levels, risk management decisions can vary among companies. 可接受的风险水平, 风险管理决策是以不同公司需要而别.

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Cost-benefit analysis is a powerful tool that is being used by many companies, governments and regulatory authorities as one method in determining risk acceptance. Users are referred to “A Comparison of Criteria for Acceptance of Risk” by the Pressure Vessel Research Council (PVRC), for more information on risk acceptance. Risk acceptance may vary for different risks. For example, risk tolerance for an environmental risk may be higher than for a safety/health risk. 成本效益分析是一个用于风险管理, 功能强大的工具, 此分析笨被很多企业,政府和监管部门作为确定可接受的风险的方法. “A Comparison of Criteria for Acceptance of Risk” by the Pressure Vessel Research Council (PVRC) 压力容器研究委员会出版的 “风险标准接受的比较” 是个很好的参考文件.

http://foreng1.securesites.net/pvrc/index.html

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12.3.2 Using Risk Assessment in Inspection and Maintenance Planning 运用风险评估于检查和维修计划 The use of risk assessment in inspection and maintenance planning is unique in that consequence information, which is traditionally operations-based, and POF information, which is typically engineering/maintenance/inspection-based, is combined to assist in the planning process. Part of this planning process is the determination of (1) what to inspect, (2) how to inspect (technique), (3) where to inspect (location), and (4) how much to inspect (coverage). Determining the risk of process units, or individual process equipment items facilitates this, as the inspections are now prioritized based on the risk value. The second part of this process is determining when to inspect the equipment. Understanding how risk varies with time facilitates this part of the process. Refer to Section 13 for a more detailed description of inspection planning based on risk analysis. 传统的检验与维修方案: 故障结果被操作阶段注重, 失效概率被工程/维修/检验阶段注重. 然而 RBI 综合故障结果/失效概率, 开发更为有益的检验维修计划.

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Typically: Consequence information - operations-based, POF - engineering/maintenance/inspection-based, RBI Approach: Risk â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Combined COF/POF into one for inspection and maintenance planning

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12.4 Sensitivity Analysis 敏感性分析 Understanding the value of each variable and how it influences the risk calculation is key to identifying which input variables deserve closer scrutiny versus other variables which may not have significant effects. This is more important when performing risk analyses that are more detailed and quantitative in nature. Sensitivity analysis typically involves reviewing some or all input variables to the risk calculation to determine the overall influence on the resultant risk value. Once this analysis has been performed, the user can see which input variables significantly influence the risk value. Those key input variables deserve the most focus or attention. 分析与筛选, 显著影响风险的输入变量值. 这些关键输入变量作为最值得关注或焦点. API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

It often is worthwhile to gather additional information on such variables. Typically, the preliminary estimates of probability and consequence may be too conservative or too pessimistic; therefore, the information gathering performed after the sensitivity analysis should be focused on developing more certainty for the key input variables. This process should ultimately lead to a re-evaluation of the key input variables. As such, the quality and accuracy of the risk analysis should improve. This is an important part of the data validation phase of risk assessment. 为了避免过于开放或保守的风险分析结构, 对关键变量值的真确性质是非常重要的. 对这些变量值进行敏感度分析能更加保证风险数据的质量与准确度.

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12.5 Assumptions 假定 Assumptions or estimates of input values are often used when consequence and/or POF data are not available. Even when data are known to exist, conservative estimates may be utilized in an initial analysis pending input of future process or engineering modeling information, such as a sensitivity analysis. Caution is advised in being too conservative, as overestimating consequences and/or POF values will unnecessarily inflate the calculated risk values. Presenting over inflated risk values may mislead inspection planners, management and insurers, and can create a lack of credibility for the user and the RBI process. Appropriate members of the RBI team as outlined in Section 16 should agree on the assumptions made for RBI analysis and the potential impacts on the risk results. 在缺乏可信的输入值时, 一般上较为保守的变量值将会运用, 然而过于保守的变量值输入导致风险膨胀. 这不必要的膨胀给用户, 管理层, 检验策划者, 偷保险者误导, 也同时让 RBI 的可信/诚信度降低.

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在缺乏可信的输入值时, 一般上较为保守的变量值将会被运用, 然而过于保守的变量值输入导致风险膨胀. 这不必要的膨胀给用户, 管理层, 检验策划者, 保险投保者误导, 也同时让 RBI 的可信/诚信度降低.

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12.6 Risk Presentation 风险表达 12.6.1 General 总则 Once risk values are developed, they can then be presented in a variety of ways to communicate the results of the analysis to decision-makers and inspection planners. One goal of the risk analysis is to communicate the results in a common format that a variety of people can understand. Using a risk matrix or plot is helpful in accomplishing this goal. 把分析到的风险数据, 运用风险矩阵或绘图来表达是被接受的有效方法.

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12.6.2 Risk Matrix 风险矩阵 For risk ranking methodologies that use consequence and probability categories, presenting the results in a risk matrix is a very effective way of communicating the distribution of risks throughout a plant or process unit without numerical values. An example risk matrix is shown in Figure 7. In this figure, the consequence and probability categories are arranged such that the highest risk ranking is toward the upper right-hand corner. It is usually desirable to associate numerical values with the categories to provide guidance to the personnel performing the assessment (e.g. probability category C ranges from 0.001 to 0.01). Different sizes of matrices may be used (e.g. 5 × 5, 4 × 4, etc.). Regardless of the matrix selected, the consequence and probability categories should provide sufficient discrimination (辨别力) between the items assessed. 运用风险矩阵作为表达风险, 是有效的沟通方式. 这样的方式不带数值的单位. 然而对进行评估提供指导, 对每个风险类别一般上都关联相应的数值.

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Risk categories may be assigned to the boxes on the risk matrix. An example risk categorization (higher, medium, lower) of the risk matrix is shown in Figure 7. In this example, the risk categories are symmetrical. They may also be asymmetrical where for instance the consequence category may be given higher weighting than the probability category. A risk matrix depicts results at a particular point in time.

Figure 7â&#x20AC;&#x201D;Example Risk Matrix Using Probability and Consequence Categories to Display Risk Rankings

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Probability of the associated consequence

Consequence of failure Increase severity

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12.6.3 Risk Plots 风险绘图 When more quantitative consequence and probability data are being used, and where showing numeric risk values is more meaningful to the stakeholders, a risk plot (or graph) is used (see Figure 7). This graph is constructed similarly to the risk matrix in that the highest risk is plotted toward the upper right-hand corner. Often a risk plot is drawn using log-log scales for a better understanding of the relative risks of the items assessed. In the example plot in Figure 8, ten (10) pieces of equipment are shown, as well as an iso-risk line (line of constant risk). If this line is the acceptable threshold of risk in this example, then equipment items 1, 2, and 3 should be mitigated so that their resultant risk levels fall below the line.

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Figure 7â&#x20AC;&#x201D;Example Risk Matrix Using Probability and Consequence Categories to Display Risk Rankings

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Line of constant risk â&#x20AC;&#x201C; acceptable level

Item no. 2

Figure 8â&#x20AC;&#x201D;Risk Plot when Using Quantitative or Numeric Risk Values API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

12.6.4 Using a Risk Plot or Matrix 使用风险绘图或矩阵 Equipment items residing towards the upper right-hand corner of the plot or matrix (in the examples presented) will most likely take priority for inspection planning because these items have the highest risk. Similarly, items residing toward the lower left-hand corner of the plot (or matrix) will tend to take lower priority because these items have the lowest risk. Once the plots have been completed, the risk plot (or matrix) can then be used as a screening tool during the prioritization process. 分析完成后的风险绘图(或矩阵)可以用为筛选优先次序的工具

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Risk may be described in terms of dollars or other numerical values as described in 10.2 even if a qualitative analysis has been performed, and the results have been plotted on a risk matrix. Numerical values associated with each of the probability and consequence categories on the risk matrix may be used to calculate the risk. For cost related risk, a net present value savings vs inspection time plot may be used to time the inspection activities. 不管是定性或定量分析,风险可能以美元或其它的数值来描述. 牵涉,成本相关的风险, 净现值的节约与检查时间绘图, 可以用来决定检验活动的时间额.

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12.7 Establishing Acceptable Risk Thresholds 建立可接受的风险临界 After the risk analysis has been performed, and risk values plotted, the risk evaluation process begins. Risk plots and matrices can be used to screen, and initially identify higher, intermediate and lower risk equipment items. The equipment can also be ranked (prioritized) according to its risk value in tabular form. Thresholds that divide the risk plot, matrix or table into acceptable and unacceptable regions of risk can be developed. Corporate safety and financial policies and constraints or risk criteria influence the placement of the thresholds. Regulations and laws may also specify or assist in identifying the acceptable risk thresholds. Reduction of some risks to a lower level may not be practical due to technology and cost constraints. An “as low as reasonably practical” (ALARP) approach to risk management or other risk management approach may be necessary for these items. 企业安全, 金融政策, 约束或风险指标的影响临界线的位置. 一些设备, 把风险降低到较低到可接受水平, 可能由于技术或成本的约束是不实际的, 这时, “最低合理可行的” (ALARP) 风险管理或其他风险管理方法可以用来处理这些设备. API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

Reduction of some risks to a lower level may not be practical due to technology and cost constraints. An “as low as reasonably practical” (ALARP) approach to risk management or other risk management approach may be necessary for these items. 一些设备, 把风险降低到较低到可接受水平, 可能由于技术或成本的约束是不实际的, 这时, “最低合理可行的” (ALARP) 风险管理或其他风险管理方法可以用来处理这些设备.

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http://www.hse.gov.uk/risk/theory/alarp.htm

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ALARP Suite of Guidance With these six pieces of guidance HSE is addressing its own staff, explaining the concept 'reasonably practicable' and providing guidance about what they should expect to see in dutyholders demonstrations that the risk has been reduced ‘as low as reasonably practicable’(ALARP).  Assessing compliance with the law in individual cases and the use of good practice  Policy and guidance on reducing risks as low as reasonably practicable in Design  Principles and guidelines to assist HSE in its judgements that duty-holders have reduced risk as low as reasonably practicable  HSE principles for Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) in support of ALARP decisions  Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) Checklist  ALARP "at a glance" http://www.hse.gov.uk/risk/theory/alarp.htm

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12.8 Risk Management 风险管理 Based on the ranking of items and the risk threshold, the risk management process begins. For risks that are judged acceptable, no mitigation may be required and no further action necessary. For risks considered unacceptable and therefore requiring risk mitigation, there are various mitigation categories that should be considered. 被认为是不可接受的风险,缓解类别有 a) Decommission - Is the equipment really necessary to support unit operation? 使退役(冗余设备). b) Inspection/ Condition Monitoring - Can a cost-effective inspection program, with repair as indicated by the inspection results, be implemented that will reduce risks to an acceptable level? 经济有效的检查计划与由检验结果标出维修项. Probability Mitigation- with repair as indicated by the inspection results?

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c) Consequence Mitigation - Can actions be taken to lessen the consequences related to an equipment failure? 后果缓解 d) Probability Mitigation - Can actions be taken to lessen the POF such as metallurgy changes or equipment redesign? 故障概率缓解 Risk management decisions can now be made on which mitigation actions to take. Risk management/mitigation is covered further in Section 13 and Section 14.

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13 Risk Management with Inspection Activities 检查活动的风险管理

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Contents 13 Risk Management with Inspection Activities 13.1 Managing Risk by Reducing Uncertainty Through Inspection 13.2 Identifying Risk Management Opportunities from RBI Results 13.3 Establishing an Inspection Strategy Based on Risk Assessment 13.4 Managing Risk with Inspection Activities 13.5 Managing Inspection Costs with RBI 13.6 Assessing Inspection Results and Determining Corrective Action 13.7 Achieving Lowest Life Cycle Costs with RBI

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13.1 Managing Risk by Reducing Uncertainty Through Inspection 管理风险, 通过检查减少不确定性 In previous sections, it has been mentioned that risk can be managed by inspection. Obviously, inspection does not arrest or mitigate damage mechanisms or in and of itself it does not reduce risk, but the information gained though effective inspection can better quantify the actual risk. Impending failure of pressure equipment is not avoided by inspection activities unless the inspection precipitates risk mitigation activities that change the POF. Inspection serves to identify, monitor, and measure the damage mechanism(s). Also, it is invaluable input in the prediction of when the damage will reach a critical point. Correct application of inspections will improve the user‘s ability to predict the damage mechanisms and rates of deterioration. The better the predictability, the less uncertainty there will be as to when a failure may occur.

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Mitigation (repair, replacement, changes, etc.) can then be planned and implemented prior to the predicted failure date. The reduction in uncertainty and increase in predictability through inspection translate directly into a better estimate of the probability of a failure and therefore a reduction in the calculated risk. However, users should be diligent to assure that temporary inspection alternatives, in lieu of more permanent risk reductions, are actually effective. 检验不能直接的降低风险. 然而检验可以确定, 监测并测量损伤机理(损坏率) 来提供有用的信息,通过准确估计失效的概率更好的量化实际风险. 从而降低计算风险.

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http://www.dnv.com/services/software/training/synergicourses/sy12 API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

_onshore_rbi_dnv_api_581_may_rotterdam.asp

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检验不能直接的降低风险. 然而检验可以确定, 监测并测量损伤机理(损坏率) 来提供有用的信息,通过准确估计失效的概率 (POF) 更好的量化实际风险 (RISK). 从而降低计算风险.

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The foregoing does not imply that risk-based inspection plans and activities are always the answer to monitoring degradation and therefore reducing risks associated with pressure equipment. Some damage mechanisms are very difficult or impossible to monitor with just inspection activities (e.g. metallurgical deterioration that may result in brittle fracture, many forms of stress corrosion cracking, and even fatigue).

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Other damage mechanisms precipitated by short-term, event-driven operating changes can happen too fast to be monitored with normal inspection plans, be they; (1) (2) (3)

risk-based, condition-based or time-based.

Hence the need for a establishing and implementing (A) (B) (C)

comprehensive program for IOW, along with adequate communications to inspection personnel when deviations occur and a rigorous MOC program for changes from the established parameters.

检验的限制有; 有的损伤机理很难或不能被检验探测到(比如; 冶金损伤, 很多的应力腐蚀开裂等). 有的, 由于短期的,操作变化事件驱动的损伤模式, 可能发生太快不在正常的检验计划所能监控范围. 基于上述理由,建立和实施一个全面的IOW 计划, 适当的信息沟通和变革管理师很有必要的. API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

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happen too fast to be monitored with normal inspection plans

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happen too fast to be monitored with normal inspection plans

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Some damage mechanisms are very difficult or impossible to monitor with just inspection activities

http://www.sv.vt.edu/classes/MSE2094_NoteBook/97ClassProj/anal/kelly/fatigue.html API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

Some damage mechanisms are very difficult or impossible to monitor with just inspection activities

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Hence the need for a establishing and implementing a comprehensive program for IOWs, along with adequate communications to inspection personnel when deviations occur and a rigorous MOC program for changes from the established parameters.

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OPERATING WINDOW

Risk mitigation (by the reduction in uncertainty) achieved through inspection presumes that the organization will act on the results of the inspection in a timely manner. Risk mitigation is not achieved if inspection data that are gathered are not properly analyzed and acted upon where needed. The quality of the inspection data and the analysis or interpretation will greatly affect the level of risk mitigation. Proper inspection methods and data analysis tools are therefore critical. 通过检验, 风险缓解 (通过减少不确定性), 假定管理层对检验结果采取及时的措施. 选用适当的检验方法与资料分析是检验资料的关键点.

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13.2 Identifying Risk Management Opportunities from RBI Results 确定风险管理的机会 As discussed in Section 12, typically a risk priority list is developed as a result of the RBI process. RBI will also identify whether consequence or POF or both is driving risk. In the situations where risk is being driven by POF, there is usually potential for risk management through inspection. Once an RBI assessment has been completed, the items with higher or unacceptable risk should be assessed for potential risk management through inspection, or other risk management strategies. Whether inspections will be effective or not will depend on: 确定操纵风险关键因素: 故障结果或POF? 当风险分析完成后, 高或不可接受风险应评估风险管理所需要的方法. 一般上, POF 使用检验方法降低, 故障结果 COF 运用其他风险管理策略. 检验的有效性取决于; a) b) c) d)

equipment type; 设备种类 active and credible damage mechanism(s); 活跃和可靠的损伤机制 rate of deterioration or susceptibility; 恶化率或敏感率 inspection methods, coverage and frequency; 检查方法,频率和覆盖

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e) accessibility to expected damage areas; 损害的区域可达性 f) shutdown requirements; 停机要求 g) amount of achievable reduction in POF (i.e. a reduction in POF of a low POF item is usually difficult to achieve through inspection). 对故障概率的降低效果 (低故障概率的设备一般上对检验带来的益处不多)

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active and credible damage mechanism(s); 活跃和可靠的损伤机制 rate of deterioration or susceptibility; 恶化率或敏感率

PTASCC – Polythionic acid stress corrosion cracking API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

accessibility to expected damage areas; 损害的区域可达性 shutdown requirements; 停机要求

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accessibility to expected damage areas; 损害的区域可达性 shutdown requirements; 停机要求

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accessibility to expected damage areas; 损害的区域可达性 shutdown requirements; 停机要求

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accessibility to expected damage areas; 损害的区域可达性 shutdown requirements; 停机要求

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accessibility to expected damage areas; 损害的区域可达性 shutdown requirements; 停机要求

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accessibility to expected damage areas; 损害的区域可达性

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accessibility to expected damage areas; 损害的区域可达性 shutdown requirements; 停机要求

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accessibility to expected damage areas; 损害的区域可达性 shutdown requirements; 停机要求

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POF为风险关键因素: 使用检验方法降低

COF为风险关键因素: 运用其他风险管理策略 API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

Inspection Limitations API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

Depending on factors such as the remaining life of the equipment and type of damage mechanism, risk management through inspection may have little or no effect. Examples of such cases are: 根据设备损伤机理类型或设备剩余寿命的因素, 有的时候运用检验作为风险管理不能带来任何或很小的效果. 以下为例子; a) corrosion rates well-established with equipment nearing end of life, 设备的腐蚀速率准确的预测设备接近设备剩余寿命. b) instantaneous failures related to operating conditions such as brittle fracture, 快速脆裂损伤机理 c) inspection technology that is not sufficient to detect or quantify deterioration adequately, 检验工艺的限制或可探能力 d) too short a time frame from the onset of deterioration to final failure for periodic inspections to be effective (e.g. high-cycle fatigue cracking), 牵涉到快速导致失效模式的损伤机理 (比如, 高频率疲劳) e) event-driven failures (circumstances that cannot be predicted), 事件驱动的故障 (不可预测的事件-操作失误/ 人为破坏等)

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In cases such as these, an alternative form of mitigation may be required. The most practical and cost effective risk mitigation strategy can then be developed for each item. Usually, inspection provides a major part of the overall risk management strategy, but not always. 在上述的情况下, 其他风险管理策略应开发与执行.

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corrosion rates wellestablished with equipment nearing end of life, 设备的腐蚀速率准确的预测设备接近设备剩余寿命

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检验工艺的限制或可探能力

event-driven failures (circumstances that cannot be predicted), 事件驱动的故障 (不可预测的事件-操作失误/ 人为破坏等)

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检验工艺的限制或可探能力

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检验工艺的限制或可探能力检验工艺的限制或可探能力

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13.3 Establishing an Inspection Strategy Based on Risk Assessment 建立基于风险评估的检测策略 The results of an RBI assessment and the resultant risk management assessment are normally used as the basis for the development of an overall inspection strategy for the group of items included. The inspection strategy should be designed in conjunction with other mitigation plans so that all equipment items will have resultant risks that are acceptable. For the development of their inspection strategy, users should consider the following: RBI分析带来的风险管理评估用于全面检查策略开发的基础, 应与其它非检验缓解计划共同设计, 检验策略开发考虑项有      

risk criteria and ranking,风险准据和排名 risk drivers, 风险因素(POF或COF主导) item history,设备历史 number and results of inspections,检查数量和结果 type and effectiveness of inspections,检查类型和有效性 equipment in similar service and remaining life. 类似服务的设备和剩余寿命

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Inspection is only effective if the examination technique chosen is sufficient for detecting the damage mechanism and its severity. As an example, spot thickness readings on a piping circuit would be considered to have little or no benefit if the damage mechanism results in unpredictable localized corrosion (e.g. pitting, ammonia bisulfide corrosion, local thin area, etc.). In this case, ultrasonic scanning, radiography, etc. will be more effective. The level of risk reduction achieved by inspection will depend on: 选用真确的检验方法是很重要的, 比如点蚀管线上用测厚仪抽检,并不能有效的检验方法, 在此情况, 应当选用超声或射线探伤. 通过检验减少风险水平将取决于 a. mode of failure of the damage mechanism, 损伤机理和失效模式 b. time interval between the onset of deterioration and failure (i.e. speed of deterioration), 开始退化至失效之间的时间间隔 c. detection capability of examination technique, 检查技术检测能力 d. scope of inspection, 检验范围 e. frequency of inspection. 检验频率

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Organizations should be deliberate and systematic in assigning the level of risk management achieved through inspection and should be cautious not to assume that there is an unending capacity for risk management through inspection. The inspection strategy should be a documented, iterative process to assure that inspection activities are continually focused on items with higher risk. 管理层,被提醒检验的可探性限制.在策划检验计划时,应记录与从迭代过程中,选择最佳的检测方法. 优先专注高风险的项目风险缓解.

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13.4 Managing Risk with Inspection Activities 通过检验活动管理风险 The effectiveness of past inspections is part of the determination of the present risk. The future risk can now be influenced by future inspection activities. RBI can be used as a “what if” tool to determine when, what and how inspections should be conducted to yield an acceptable future risk level. Key parameters and examples that can affect the future risk are as follows. 过去的检查的有效性是确定当前风险的一部分. 往后的风险指望于后续的检验活动. 评估过去的检验有效性作为改进后续的检验活动,有助于降低风险. 检验活动影响风险的关键参数/例子有 a) Frequency of Inspection—Increasing the frequency of inspections may serve to better define, identify or monitor the damage mechanism(s) and therefore better quantify the risk. Both routine and turnaround inspection frequencies can be optimized. 检验频率, 增加频率能更加的对损坏机理的认识与评估,因此更好地量化风险.常规和周转检验频率可以被优化.

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b) Coverage - Different zones or areas of inspection of an item or series of items can be modeled and evaluated to determine the coverage that will produce an acceptable level of risk. For example: 覆盖范围 ; 设备可以分区, 位置建模进行执行检验工作. a higher risk piping system may be a candidate for more extensive inspection, using one or more NDE techniques targeted to locating the identified damage mechanisms; 对风险高的管线系统进行较多的检验投入(聚焦) an assessment may reveal the need for focus on parts of a vessel where the highest risk may be located and focus on quantifying this risk rather than focusing on the rest of the vessel where there are perhaps only low risk deterioration processes occurring. 对风险较高的容器设备的位置/区域进行较多的检验投入(聚焦)

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c) Tools and Techniques - The selection and usage of the appropriate inspection tools and techniques can be optimized to cost effectively and safely quantify the POF. In the selection of inspection tools and techniques, inspection personnel should take into consideration that more than one technology may achieve risk mitigation. However, the level of mitigation achieved can vary depending on the choice. As an example, profile radiography would typically be more effective than digital ultrasonic for thickness monitoring in cases of localized corrosion. 工具与技术 – 挑选合适的检验工具与技术, 有助于费用节省与更加有效的量化故障概率(POF). 在选择检验方法时, 除了选择合适的技术, 多个检验技术可能被动用来缓解风险.

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d) Procedures and Practices - Inspection procedures and the actual inspection practices can impact the ability of inspection activities to identify, measure and/or monitor damage mechanisms. If the inspection activities are executed effectively by well-trained and qualified inspectors, the expected risk management benefits should be obtained. The user is cautioned not to assume that all inspectors and NDE examiners are well qualified and experienced, but rather to take steps to assure that they have the appropriate level of experience and qualifications. 程序和做法 – 检验可探性受检验程序与实际操作影响. 实用的检验作业指导书, 合格的检验人员是检验工作的先决条件.

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http://myicp.api.org/inspectorsearch/

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e) Internal, On-stream, or External Inspection—Risk quantification by internal, on-stream and external inspections should be assessed. Often external inspection with effective on-stream inspection techniques can provide useful data for risk assessment. It is worth noting that invasive inspections, in some cases, may cause deterioration and increase the risk of the item. Examples where this may happen include: 内部,外部,在职检验 – 按照实际要求进行合适的检验方法(内,外,在职)筛选. 很多时候外部在职检验能提供有用的风险评估信息. 很多时候内部检验可能导致设备的恶化与增加风险, 例子有;  moisture ingress to equipment leading to stress corrosion cracking or polythionic acid cracking, 水分渗入导致如腐蚀应力开裂(连多硫酸开裂)  internal inspection of glass lined vessels, 玻璃容器内部检验导致损坏  removal of passivating films, — human errors in start up (re-streaming),钝化膜去除 (开机导致损坏)  increased risks associated with shutting down and starting up equipment. 设备关机和启动带来的机械完整性负面影响

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The user can adjust these parameters to obtain the optimum inspection plan that manages risk, is cost effective, and is practical. 用户可以按照实际情况优化检验方法和筛选最佳的方法.

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13.5 Managing Inspection Costs with RBI 运用 RBI 管理检查的费用 Inspection costs can be more effectively managed through the utilization of RBI. Resources can be applied or shifted to those areas identified as a higher risk or targeted based on the strategy selected. Consequently, this same strategy allows consideration for reduction of inspection activities in those areas that have a (1) lower risk or where the inspection activity has (2) little or no effect on the associated risks. This results in inspection resources being applied where they are needed most and thereby increased inspection cost effectiveness. 合理的把检验活动关注与高风险设备与那些能有效通过检验活动降低风险的设备, 在(1) 低风险和检验活动(2) 不能显著地降低风险的设备, 减少或完全取消检验活动, 能节约检验费用.

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POF为风险关键因素: 使用检验方法降低 – 检验关注点

高风险区- 检验关注点

低风险区- 非检验关注点

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COF为风险关键因素: 运用其他风险管理策略 - 非检验关注点

Another opportunity for managing inspection costs is by identifying items in the inspection plan that can be inspected non-intrusively on-stream. If the nonintrusive inspection provides sufficient risk management, there is a potential for a net savings based on not having to blind, open, clean, and internally inspect during downtime. If the item considered is the main driver for bringing an operational unit down, the non-intrusive inspection may contribute to increased uptime of the unit. The user should recognize that while there is a potential for the reduction of inspection costs through the utilization of RBI, increased equipment integrity and inspection cost optimization should remain the focus. 另个节约检验费用的来源是, 外部在职检验替代设备内部检验 (内部检验的准备工作, 关机导致停产, 等). 用户应当注意的是, 虽然外部在职检验在替代内部检验带来成本节约, 设备机械完整性与检验成本最佳平衡是最终目标.

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检验如何降低检验费用:  注重高风险项目,减少或忽略对低风险项目.  不能显著地降低风险的设备, 减少或完全取消检验活动.  外部在职检验替代设备内部检验.

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13.6 Assessing Inspection Results and Determining Corrective Action 评估检测结果并确定纠正措施 Inspection results such as the (1) identification of damage mechanisms, (2) rate of deterioration and (3) equipment tolerance to the types of deterioration should be used as variables in assessing (A) remaining life and (B) future inspection plans. The results can also be (C) used for comparison or validation of the models that may have been used for POF determination. 检验结果如, 损伤机理的识别, 劣化率, 设备容忍性能用来评估剩余寿命和策划未来的检验计划. 在此同时, 相关的资料可以用来, 比较与核实 POF 数据的准确性. A documented mitigation action plan should be developed for any equipment item requiring repair or replacement. The action plan should describe the extent of repair (or replacement), recommendations, the proposed repair method(s), appropriate QA/QC and the date the plan should be completed. 每个需要维修或更换作为风险缓解的设备, 应当有缓解计划书. 化解计划书应, 详细的说明, 返修/更换范围, 建议, 修复方法, QAQC 要求和计划完成时间.

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Reducing Uncertainty

Assessing Inspection Results and Determining Corrective Action 评估检测结果并确定纠正措施检验结果如,(1) 损伤机理的识别, (2) 劣化率, (3) 设备容忍性能用来; 1. 评估剩余寿命和 2. 策划未来的检验计划. 在此同时, 3. 相关的资料可以用来,比较与核实 POF 数据的准确性.

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UW-51 (b) Degree of Radiographic Examination.

Unacceptable imperfections

Full

(1) indication characterized as a crack or zone of incomplete fusion or penetration; (2) any other elongated indication on the radiograph which has length greater than: (a) ¼ in. (6 mm) for t up to ¾ in. (19 mm) (b) ⅓ t for t from ¾ in. (19 mm) to 2 ¼ in. (57 mm) (c) ¾ in. (19 mm) for t over 2 ¼ in. (57mm) (3) any group of aligned indications that have an aggregate length greater than “t” in a length of 12t, except when the distance between the successive imperfections exceeds 6L where L is the length of the longest imperfection in the group; (4) rounded indications in excess of that specified by the acceptance standards given in Appendix 4.

UW-51

Unacceptable imperfections

UW-51 (b2)

UW-51 (b2) any other elongated indication on the radiograph which has length greater than: (a) ¼ in. (6 mm) for t up to ¾ in. (19 mm) (b) ⅓ t for t from ¾ in. (19 mm) to 2 ¼ in. (57 mm) (c) ¾ in. (19 mm) for t over 2 ¼ in. (57mm) UW-51

UW-52 (c) Degree of RT

Unacceptable imperfections

Spot

indication characterized as a crack or zone of incomplete fusion or penetration.

Welds having indications characterized as slag inclusions or cavities are unacceptable when;

the indication length exceeds 2/3 t, where t is defined as shown in UW-51(b)(2).

For all thicknesses, indications less than Âź in. (6 mm) are acceptable, and indications greater than Âž in. (19 mm) are unacceptable.

Multiple aligned indications meeting these acceptance criteria are acceptable when the sum of their longest dimensions indications does not exceed t within a length of 6t (or proportionally for radiographs shorter than 6t), and when the longest length L for each indication is separated by a distance not less than 3L from adjacent indications.

(3) Rounded indications are not a factor in the acceptability of welds not required to be fully radiographed.

UW-52

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What were the differences in inspection?

API 510 Clause 3.20 examiner: A person who assists the inspector by performing specific nondestructive examination (NDE) on pressure vessel components but does not evaluate the results of those examinations in accordance with API 510, unless specifically trained and to do so by the owner/user. API authorized 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

13.7 Achieving Lowest Life Cycle Costs with RBI 最低周期寿命成本 Not only can RBI be used to optimize inspection costs that directly affect life cycle costs, it can assist in lowering overall life cycle costs through various cost benefit assessments. The following examples can give a user ideas on how to lower life cycle costs through RBI with cost benefit assessments. 周期寿命成本节约的贡献因素有 a) RBI should enhance the prediction of failures caused by damage mechanisms. This in turn should give the user confidence to continue to operate equipment safely, closer to the predicted failure date. By doing this, the equipment cycle time should increase and life cycle costs decrease. 提高故障预测率, 让用户有信心的安全操作设备, 临近预测的失效日期. 这样设备的使用周期时间增加和寿命周期成本降低

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http://www.dnv.com/services/software/training/synergicourses/sy12 API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

_onshore_rbi_dnv_api_581_may_rotterdam.asp

b) RBI can be used to assess the effects of changing to a more aggressive fluid. A subsequent plan to upgrade construction material or replace specific items can then be developed. The construction material plan would consider the optimized run length safely attainable along with the appropriate inspection plan. This could equate to increased profits and lower life cycle costs through reduced maintenance, optimized inspections, and increased unit/equipment uptime. 通过设备材料的更加认识, 从而优化设备/溶液/检验之间的互联组配, 来减少维修, 优化检查, 增加单元/设备的正常可用时间. c) Turnaround and maintenance costs also have an effect on the life cycle costs of an equipment item. By using the results of the RBI inspection plan to identify more accurately where to inspect and what repairs and replacements to expect, turnaround and maintenance work can be preplanned and, in most cases, executed at a lower cost than if unplanned. 风险分析能正确的鉴定设备需要检验的位置与间隔, 这样检修和维护工作可预先计划. 预先合理时间安排往往导致成本节约. API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

14 Other Risk Mitigation Activities 其他的风险缓解活动

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Contents 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.10 14.11 14.12 14.13

General Equipment Replacement and Repair Evaluating Flaws for Fitness-For-Service Equipment Modification, Redesign, and Rerating Emergency Isolation Emergency Depressurizing/Deinventorying Modify Process Establish Integrity Operating Windows Reduce Inventory Water Spray/Deluge Water Curtain Blast-resistant Construction Others

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14.1 General 总则 As described in the previous section, inspection is often an effective method of risk management. However, inspection may not always provide sufficient risk mitigation or may not be the most cost effective method. The purpose of this section is to describe other methods of risk mitigation. This list is not meant to be all inclusive. These risk mitigation activities fall into one or more of the following: 检验虽然一般上有效的降低风险, 但在检验并不能胜任时, 其他缓解措施将被动用.这些风险缓解活动主要分为以下 a) reduce the magnitude of consequence, 减少的后果的严重性 b) reduce the POF, 减少故障率 c) enhance the survivability of the facility and people to the consequence, 提高设备和人对事故后果的生存率 d) mitigate the primary source of consequence. 缓解故障后果的主要来源

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1. 14.2 Equipment Replacement and Repair 2. 14.3 Evaluating Flaws for Fitness-For-Service 3. 14.4 Equipment Modification, Redesign, and Rerating 4. 14.5 Emergency Isolation 5. 14.6 Emergency Depressurizing/De-inventorying 6. 14.7 Modify Process 7. 14.8 Establish Integrity Operating Windows 8. 14.9 Reduce Inventory 9. 14.10 Water Spray/Deluge 10.14.11 Water Curtain 11.14.12 Blast-resistant Construction 12.14.13 Others

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14.2 Equipment Replacement and Repair 设备的更换和维修 When equipment deterioration has reached a point that the risk of failure cannot be managed to an acceptable level, replacement/repair is often the only way to mitigate the risk. 当设备损伤导致失效风险不能管理到可接受的水平时, 设备维修或更换往往是唯一的风险缓解选择.

其他的风险缓解活动 – 设备维修!

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Other Risk Mitigation Activities 其他的风险缓解活动

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14.3 Evaluating Flaws for Fitness-For-Service 适用性评估 Inspection may identify flaws in equipment. A Fitness-For-Service assessment (e.g. API 579-1/ASME FFS-1) may be performed to determine if the equipment may continue to be safely operated, under what conditions and for what time period. A Fitness-For-Service analysis can also be performed to determine what size flaws, if found in future inspections, would require repair or equipment replacement. 适用性评估可以用于评估当前的设备缺陷 (不受理/维修/更换), 也可以用来定量缺陷大小的极限, 这有助于对未来检验测量到的缺陷变化,做出更换或维修的决定.

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14.4 Equipment Modification, Redesign, and Rerating 设备改造, 重新设计和压力重估 Modification and redesign of equipment, utilizing a rigorous MOC process, can provide mitigation of POF. Examples include: 利用严格的变更管理程序,备改造, 重新设计和压力重估作为缓解 POF,例子有 a) b) c) d) e)

change of metallurgy,改变冶金 addition of protective linings and coatings, 添加涂层和保护衬垫 removal of deadlegs, 拆除盲流点(死角) increased corrosion allowance, 增加腐蚀余量 physical changes that will help to control/minimize deterioration, 有助于控制/减少恶化的设备物理变化 f) insulation improvements, 保温层的优化 g) injection point design changes, 注入点设计优化 h) resizing of the relief device.减压装置大小优化 Sometimes equipment is over designed for the process conditions. Rerating the equipment may result in a reduction of the POF assessed for that item. 有的时候,设备设计过于保守, 设计重估可能导致POF降低.

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14.5 Emergency Isolation 紧急关断 Emergency isolation capability can reduce toxic, explosion or fire consequences in the event of a release. Proper location of the isolation valves is key to successful risk mitigation. Remote operation is usually required to provide significant risk reduction. To mitigate flammable and explosion risk, operations need to be able to detect the release and actuate the isolation valves quickly (within a few minutes). Longer response times may still mitigate effects of ongoing fires or toxic releases.

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14.6 Emergency Depressurizing/De-inventorying 应急减压/ 清仓(溶液) This method reduces the amount and rate of release. Like emergency isolation, the emergency depressurizing and/or de-inventory should be achieved within a few minutes to affect explosion/fire risk.

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14.7 Modify Process 工艺修改 Mitigation of the primary source of consequence may be achieved by changing the process towards less hazardous conditions. As with physical modifications, any process changes should be conducted only after the application of a rigorous MOC process. Some examples include: a) reduce temperature to below atmospheric pressure boiling point to reduce size of cloud; 降低温度 b) substitute a less hazardous material (e.g. high flash solvent for a low flash solvent); 更换工艺原材料 c) use a continuous process instead of a batch operation, where applicable; 连续而不是一个间歇操作工艺过程 d) dilute or eliminate hazardous substances.淡化或消除有害物质以上修改必须经过严格的 MOC 变更管理程序审核.

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Mitigation of the sources of corrosion can be achieved by changing the process towards less corrosive conditions. Some examples include: 通过更改腐蚀性较弱的工艺过程 a) process water washing to remove corrosive materials (e.g. salts); 清水清理 b) addition of neutralizing or inhibitor chemicals; 添加中和剂 /抑制剂 c) removal of contaminants with process equipment (e.g. absorbers, filters); 污染物去除 d) protection of downtime corrosion (e.g. PTASCC protection). 停机保护(比如:硫酸应力腐蚀)

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14.8 Establish IOWs 建立操作完整性窗口 IOWs should be established for process parameters (both physical and chemical) that could impact equipment integrity if not properly controlled. Examples of the process parameters include temperatures, pressures, fluid velocities, pH, flow rates, chemical or water injection rates, levels of corrosive constituents, chemical composition, etc. Key process parameters for IOWs should be identified and implemented, upper and lower limits established, as needed, and deviations from these limits should be brought to the attention of inspection/engineering personnel. Particular attention to monitoring IOWs should also be provided during start-ups, shutdowns and significant process upsets. 操作完整性窗口(参数) 应确定和实施. 特别注意监测在开机, 关机与工艺颠覆的工艺参数的异常. 当关键工艺参数偏离允许上下限,应及时提醒检验/设计人员.

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14.9 Reduce Inventory 减少库存 This method reduces the magnitude of consequence. Some examples include: a) reduce/eliminate storage of hazardous feedstocks or intermediate products; 减少/消除储存危险原料或中间产品, b) modify process control to permit a reduction in inventory contained in surge drums, reflux drums or other inprocess inventories; 减少缓冲罐, 回流罐的库存, c) modify process operations to require less inventory/hold-up; 修改工艺以减少工艺流程库存, d) substitute gas phase technology for liquid phase. 液相替代气相技术,

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14.10 Water Spray/Deluge 水喷/消防水 This method can reduce fire damage and minimize or prevent escalation. A properly designed and operating system can greatly reduce the probability that a vessel exposed to fire. 这方法减少火灾的伤害或升级. 14.11 Water Curtain 水幕 Water sprays entrap large amounts of air into a cloud. Water curtains mitigate water soluble vapor clouds by absorption as well as dilution and insoluble vapors (including most flammables) by air dilution. Early activation is required in order to achieve significant risk reduction. The curtain should preferably be between the release location and ignition sources (e.g. furnaces) or locations where people are likely to be present. Design is critical for flammables, since the water curtain can enhance flame speed under some circumstances.

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14.12 Blast-resistant Construction 防爆结构 Utilizing blast resistant construction provides mitigation of the damage caused by explosions and may prevent escalation of the incident. When used for buildings (see API 752), it may provide personnel protection from the effects of an explosion. This may also be useful for equipment critical to emergency response, critical instrument/control lines, etc.

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14.13 Others 其他 a) b) c) d) e) f) g) h) i) j) k)

spill detector; 泄漏检测器 steam or air curtains; 蒸汽或空气幕 fireproofing; 耐火层装置 instrumentation (interlocks, shutdown systems, alarms, etc.); 仪表 (联锁, 关断系统, 警报, 等) inerting/gas blanketing;惰气/气掩盖 ventilation of buildings and enclosed structures; 建筑物封闭结构的通风 piping redesign; 管道设计 mechanical flow restriction; 机械流量限制 ignition source control; 燃点源头控制 improved design, assembly and installation standards; 改进的设计, 装配和安装标准 improvement in process safety management (PSM) program; 工艺安全管理程序的改进

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l) m) n) o) p) q) r) s) t)

emergency evacuation; 紧急疏散 shelters (safe havens); 庇护所(避难所) toxic scrubbers on building vents; 在建筑通风有毒洗涤器 spill detectors and containment; 泄漏检测器和遏制 facility siting and/or layout; 设施选址和/或布局 condition monitoring; 状态监测 improved training and procedures; 改进,训练和程序 emergency feed stops; 紧急原料补给关断 improved fire suppression systems. 改进的灭火系统

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15 Reassessment and Updating RBI Assessments 重估与跟新评估

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Contents 15 Reassessment and Updating RBI Assessments 15.1 RBI Reassessments 15.2 Why Conduct an RBI Reassessment? 15.3 When to Conduct an RBI Reassessment

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15.1 RBI Reassessments 重估 RBI is a dynamic tool that can provide current and projected future risk evaluations. However, these evaluations are based on data and knowledge at the time of the assessment. As time goes by, changes are inevitable and the results from the RBI assessment should be updated. It is important to maintain and update an RBI program to ensure that the most recent inspection, process, and maintenance information is included. (1) The results of inspections, (2) changes in process conditions and (3) implementation of maintenance practices can all have significant effects on risks, and therefore the inspection plan and can trigger the need to perform a reassessment. 作为一个动态工具, 风险会跟着时间, 操作与缓解活动的介入而改变, 风险也随着这些变化而升减. 评估必须最新的检验, 工艺与维护信息, 更新反映这些变化.

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15.2 Why Conduct an RBI Reassessment? 为何需要跟新? 15.2.1 General 总则 There are several events that will change risks and make it prudent to conduct an RBI reassessment. It is important that the facility have an effective MOC process that identifies when a reassessment is necessary. Sections 15.2.2 through 15.2.5 provide guidance on some key factors that could trigger an RBI reassessment. 有效的变更管理程序, 对重新评估是很重要的

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It is important that the facility have an effective MOC process that identifies when a reassessment is necessary.

WHP-01/V2001MOC

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Sections 15.2.2 through 15.2.5 provide guidance on some key factors that could trigger an RBI reassessment.

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15.2.2 Damage Mechanisms and Inspection Activities 损坏机理与检验活动 Many damage mechanisms are time dependent. Typically, the RBI assessment will project deterioration at a continuous rate. In reality, the deterioration rate may vary over time. Through inspection activities, the rate of deterioration (both short-term and long-term) may be better defined. Some damage mechanisms are independent of time (i.e. they occur only when there are specific conditions present). When those intermittent conditions occur, then an RBI reassessment may be appropriate. As part of the reassessments, it is important to review the operating histories over the past run, including exceedances and trends, to better predict if non-time dependent damage mechanisms could have occurred. Inspection activities will increase information on the condition of the equipment. When inspection activities have been performed, the results should be reviewed to determine if an RBI reassessment is necessary.

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In reality, the deterioration rate may vary over time. Some damage mechanisms are independent of time (i.e. they occur only when there are specific conditions present).

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In reality, the deterioration rate may vary over time. Some damage mechanisms are independent of time (i.e. they occur only when there are specific conditions present).

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很多损伤机理带来的破坏有时间依赖性, 虽然RBI会预测损伤的连续恶化率. 然而这恶化率会随着时间而变动, 检验活动能更好的定义恶化率, 减少不明确性. 也有的损伤机理不受时间的影响(依赖间歇性的条件), 同样检验活动能检测出这些变化. 当这些变化超过设定准据时, 重估可能是必要的. API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

15.2.3 Process and Hardware Changes 过程和硬件的变化 Changes in process conditions and hardware, such as equipment modifications or replacement, frequently can significantly alter the risks, and dictate the need for a reassessment. Process changes, in particular, have been linked to equipment failure from rapid or unexpected corrosion or cracking. This is particularly important for damage mechanisms that depend heavily on process conditions. Typical examples include (1) chloride stress corrosion cracking of stainless steel, (2) wet H2S cracking of carbon steel, and (3) accelerated corrosion at points of salt deposition or at dew points and sour water corrosion. In each case, a change in process conditions can dramatically affect the corrosion rate or cracking tendencies. 工艺条件的变化可以显着影响腐蚀速率或开裂倾向. 这导致重估的必要.

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Process changes

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Process changes

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Process changes

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Hardware changes can also have an effect on risk. For example: 硬件的变化对风险的影响例子 a) the POF can be affected by changes in the design of internals in a vessel or size and shape of piping systems that accelerate velocity related corrosion effects; 故障概率会随着设备/管道的体积变化导致溶液流速加剧而变化. b) the COF can be affected by the relocation of a vessel to an area near an ignition source; 故障结构会因设备搬迁而变化(离开火源等) c) process conditions can be changed by hardware modifications, additions, deletions, or by-passing. 工艺流程会随着硬件的修改,增减而变化. API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

the POF can be affected by changes in the design of internals in a vessel or size and shape of piping systems that accelerate velocity related corrosion effects;

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15.2.4 RBI Assessment Premise Change 评估位置的改变 The premises for the RBI assessment could change and have a significant impact on the risk results. Some of the possible changes could be: a) increase or decrease in population density in the process unit,人口密度变动 b) change in construction material and repair/replacement costs, 建筑材料和维修/更换的费用的变化 c) change in product values,产品的价值的变化 d) revisions in safety and environmental laws and regulations, 安全和环境法律法规的修订 e) revisions in the users risk management plan (such as changes in risk criteria),用户的风险管理计划的修订 f) change in feed amount or composition,在进料量和成分的变化 g) changes in operating conditions,操作条件的变化 h) change in unit operating lengths between maintenance turnarounds. 维护周转间隔变化

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RBI Assessment Premise Change Changes

Impacting

increase or decrease in population density in the process unit

COF

change in construction material and repair/replacement costs,

COF

change in product values,

COF

revisions in safety and environmental laws and regulations,

Risk criteria

revisions in the users risk management plan

Risk criteria

change in feed amount or composition

POF/COF

changes in operating conditions

POF

change in unit operating lengths between maintenance turnarounds

POF

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15.2.5 The Effect of Mitigation Strategies 缓解策略的影响 Strategies to mitigate risks such as installation of safety systems, repairs etc. should be monitored to ensure that they have successfully achieved the desired mitigation. Once a mitigation strategy is implemented, a reassessment of the risk may be performed to update the RBI program with the new current risks. Strategies to mitigate risks such as installation of safety systems, repairs etc. should be monitored to ensure that they have successfully achieved the desired mitigation. Once a mitigation strategy is implemented, a reassessment of the risk may be performed to update the RBI program with the new current risks. 一旦实现完成缓解策略, 重新评估的当前风险, 更新RBI数据.

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http://www.stoprust.com/23-risk-based-management.htm API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

15.3 When to Conduct an RBI Reassessment 什么时候进行评估 15.3.1 15.3.2 15.3.3 15.3.4

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After Significant Changes After a Set Time Period After Implementation of Risk Mitigation Strategies Before and After Maintenance Turnarounds

15.3.1 After Significant Changes 重大变化后 As discussed in 15.2, significant changes in risk can occur for a variety of reasons. Qualified personnel should evaluate each significant change to determine the potential for a change in risk. It may be desirable to conduct an RBI reassessment after significant changes in process conditions, damage mechanisms/rates/severities or RBI premises. 在工艺条件的显着变化, 损伤机制/恶化率/损伤严重程度, 或设施位置的迁移, 应当重新评估.

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15.3.2 After a Set Time Period 时间隔 Although significant changes may not have occurred, over time many small changes may occur and cumulatively cause significant changes in the RBI assessment. Users should set default maximum time periods for reassessments. The governing inspection codes (such as API 510, API 570, and API 653) and jurisdictional regulations, if any, should be reviewed in this context. 随着时间的推移,很多小的变化可能发生累积造成显着的变化, 重新评估是必要的,. 用户应当制定最大间隔. 在制定间隔时, 应考虑项有, 法定要求, 采纳规范如 API 510/570/653.

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15.3.3 After Implementation of Risk Mitigation Strategies 风险缓解策略实施后 Once a mitigation strategy is implemented, it is prudent to determine how effective the strategy was in reducing the risk to an acceptable level. This should be reflected in a reassessment of the risk and appropriate update in the documentation. 一旦实现了一个缓解策略, 谨慎的做法是确定缓解策略对风险降低的有效性. 重估的结果应当档案, 如有必要改进缓解策略.

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15.3.4 Before and After Maintenance Turnarounds 维护检修之前/后 As part of the planning for a maintenance turnaround, it is usually useful to perform an RBI reassessment. This can become a first step in planning the turnaround to ensure that the work effort is focused on the higher risk equipment items and on issues that might affect the ability to achieve the premised operating run time in a safe, economic, and environmentally sound manner. Since a large number of inspection, repairs, and modifications are performed during a typical maintenance turnaround, it may be useful to update an assessment soon after the turnaround to reflect the new risk levels. 维护检修之前进行风险评估得到的设备风险排名, 有助于筛选高风险的设备进行优先处理. 维护检修后, 重估能确定缓解策略对风险降低的有效性和体现新风险水平.

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16 Roles, Responsibilities, Training, and Qualifications 角色,职责,培训和资格

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Contents 16 Roles, Responsibilities, Training, and Qualifications 16.1 Team Approach 16.2 Team Members, Roles, and Responsibilities 16.3 Training and Qualifications for RBI Application

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16.1 Team Approach 团队的方法 RBI requires data gathering from many sources, specialized analysis, such as risk analysis, financial analysis, materials and corrosion engineering, mechanical engineering, inspection, etc. followed by risk management decision making. Generally, one individual does not have the background or skills to single-handedly conduct the entire study effectively. Usually, a team of people, with the requisite skills and background, is needed to conduct an effective RBI assessment. RBI analyses should be conducted as a project with plant management as stakeholders and a project team composed of the types of members depicted in 16.2.2 through 16.2.10. 基于风险检验 (RBI) 需要大量不同专业的资料, 单凭一位专业人士,并不具备背景与技能,单枪匹马的完成工作. 实际上这需要一个由利益相关者(管理层)作为团队领导以项目名义招聚不同专业人员组成的队伍共同完成.

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16.2 Team Members, Roles, and Responsibilities 团队成员的角色,职责 16.2.1 General 总则 Depending on the application, some of the disciplines listed below may not be required. Some team members may be part-time due to limited input needs. It is also possible that not all the team members listed may be required if other team members have the required skill and knowledge of multiple disciplines. It is usually useful to have one of the team members serve as a facilitator for discussion sessions and team interactions. 按照实际需要与项目特点, 可能只需要部分以下的专业人员参与. 参与人员可能因为较少的输入,只需要少时间的兼职. 个人具备相关的知识,也能同时作为两个货更多的专业身份出现在队伍里. 团队里, 应被选出一位讨论会和团队互动促进者

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16.2.2 Team Leader 团队领导 The team leader may be any one of the below mentioned team members. The team leader should be a full-time team member, and should preferably be a stakeholder in the facility/equipment being analyzed. In cases where the team leader is unfamiliar with the facility to be evaluated, he or she should be familiar with the RBI methodology employed and the types of processes to be assessed. The team leader may be knowledgeable in one of the specialized fields required for RBI. The main function of the team leader should be to integrate the inputs, outputs, organizational structure, communications, etc. of the assessment team and to carry out the following responsibilities: 最好是一个利益相关者.下列为责任

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a) formation of the team and verifying that the team members have the necessary skills, experience and knowledge; 团队的形成与确保人员组合具有必要知识 b) assuring that the study is conducted properly: 确保正确执行 - data gathered is accurate, 数据正确 - assumptions made are logical and documented, 假设合理(需档案假设逻辑) - appropriate personnel are utilized to provide data and assumptions, 动用/筛选合适人员收集数据与建议 - appropriate quality and validity checks are employed on data gathered and on the data analysis; 动用/筛选合适人员复核(质量和有效性), 收集到的信息与信息分析.

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c) preparing a report on the RBI assessment and distributing it to the appropriate stakeholders whom are either responsible for decisions on managing risks or responsible for implementing actions to mitigate the risks; 准备评估报告,分发到利益相关者(负责管理风险或负责实施措施减轻风险决策) d) following up to assure that the appropriate risk mitigation actions have been implemented. 跟进, 以确保适当的风险缓解措施得到实施

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团队领导

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团队领导

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16.2.3 Equipment Inspector or Inspection Specialist 设备检验员与检验师 The equipment inspector or inspection specialist is generally responsible for gathering data on the condition and history of equipment in the study. This condition data should include the new/design condition and current condition. Generally, this information will be located in equipment inspection and maintenance files. If condition data are unavailable, the inspector/specialist, in conjunction with the corrosion specialist, should provide predictions of the current condition. The inspector/specialist and materials and corrosion specialist are also responsible for assessing the effectiveness of past inspections. The equipment inspector/inspection specialist is usually responsible for implementing the recommended inspection plan derived from the RBI assessment. 责任与负责项:  设备检验员与检验师 – 收集设备 (1)当前设备状态和 (2) 设备历史(新建/设计), 在缺乏资料下,可以通过腐蚀专家的协助下,预测当前状态.  设备检验员与检验师 – 实施建议的检验计划  设备检验员,检验师与材料/腐蚀专家 -过去的检查的有效性评估 API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

设备检验员与检验师 API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

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16.2.4 Corrosion Specialist 腐蚀专家 The corrosion specialist is responsible for assessing the types of damage mechanisms and their applicability and severity to the equipment considering the process conditions, environment, metallurgy, age, etc., of the equipment. This specialist should compare this assessment to the actual condition of the equipment, determine the reason for differences between predicted and actual condition, and provide guidance on damage mechanisms, rates or severity to be used in the RBI assessment. Part of this comparison should include evaluating the appropriateness of the inspections in relation to the damage mechanism. This specialist also should provide recommendations on methods of mitigating the POF (such as changes in metallurgy, addition of inhibition, addition of coatings/linings, etc.) and methods of monitoring the process for possible changes in damage rates (such as pH monitoring, corrosion rate monitoring, contaminant monitoring, etc.).

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腐蚀专家职责:       

评估设备损伤机制及该损失机理对同类设备影响面. 评估设备恶化严重程度 (考虑:工艺, 环境,冶金,设备龄,等) 分析设备,预测和的实际情况与差异提供指导,损伤机制,率或严重程度用以RBI评估选用的检查方法合适性(对相关损失机理的可探性) 建议失效概率的缓解方法 (冶金,抑制剂,涂层,护垫,等) 监测可能导致损坏率的过程变化(PH,腐蚀率,污染监控等)的方法

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腐蚀专家

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16.2.5 Process Specialist 工艺师 The process specialist is responsible for the provision of process condition information. This information generally will be in the form of process flow sheets. The process specialist is responsible for documenting variations in the process conditions due to normal occurrences (such as start-ups and shutdowns) and abnormal occurrences. The process specialist is responsible for describing the composition and variability of all the process fluids/gases as well as their potential toxicity and flammability. The process specialist should evaluate/recommend methods of risk mitigation (probability or consequence) through changes in process conditions. 职责: 提供工艺相关资料(工艺流程表) 提供正常操作, 停机,重启, 异常状况的工艺参数解析设施工艺流体特性(成分/毒性/可燃性) 评估/建议更改工艺参数达到风险缓解(估值概率/失效后果)

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工艺师

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16.2.6 Operations and Maintenance Personnel 操作和维护人员 Operations personnel are responsible for verifying that the facility/ equipment is being operated within the parameters set out in the process operating window. They are responsible for providing data on occurrences when process deviated from the limits of the operating windows, and on any trends in the operating data over the past unit run, including IOW parameters. They are also responsible for verifying that equipment repairs/ replacements/additions have been included in the equipment condition data supplied by the equipment inspector. Operations and maintenance are responsible for implementing recommendations that pertain to process or equipment modifications and monitoring. 职责: 提供, 当操作参数偏离 IOW时, 相关工艺参数变化. 提供, 设备操作参数变动趋向验证, 设备的维修/更换/添加项适当已经落实确保, 涉及到过程或设备修改建议的实施与监测，

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操作和维护人员

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16.2.7 Management 管理层 Management’s role is to provide sponsorship and resources (personnel and funding) for the RBI assessment. They are responsible for making decisions on risk management, establishing risk acceptance criteria and/or providing the framework/mechanism for others to make these decisions based on the results of the RBI assessment. Finally, management is responsible for providing the resources and follow-up system to implement the risk mitigation decisions. 职责: 管理层的作用是提供赞助和资源对风险管理的决策, 建立风险接受准则. 设定框架机制对RBI分析作出决定. 提供资源和跟踪系统, 实施风险减缓措施

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管理层

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16.2.8 Risk Analyst 风险分析员 This person(s) is responsible for assembling all of the data and carrying out the RBI analysis. This person(s) could be a separate specialist or one of the above team members and is typically responsible for:收集所有的数据和开展RBI分析(可为负责其他项的团员), 通常负责 a) defining data required from other team members, 定义其他团队成员所需提供的数据 b) defining accuracy levels for the data, 定义资料的精确度要求 c) verifying through quality checks the soundness of data and assumptions, 确定资料的质量 d) inputting/transferring data into the computer program and running the program (if one is used), 输入数据 e) quality control of data input/output, 数据的质量控制

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f) manually calculating the measures of risk (if a computer program is not used), 人工计算与分析风险(如不用计算机) g) displaying the results in an understandable way and preparing appropriate reports on the RBI analysis. 用容易理解的方式显示分析结果与准备RBI报告. Furthermore, this person(s) should be a resource to the team conducting a cost/benefit analysis if it is deemed necessary. 作为信息资源提供者, 协助资源小组进行成本效益分析

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16.2.9 Environmental and Safety Personnel 环境/安全员 This person(s) is responsible for providing data on environmental and safety systems and regulations. He/she also is responsible for assessing/ recommending ways to mitigate the COF. 责任: 提供环境/安全系统与法规相关信息评估/推荐缓解故障后果的方法

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16.2.10 Financial/Business Personnel 财务/业务人员 This person(s) is responsible for providing data on the cost of the facility/equipment being analyzed and the financial impact of having pieces of equipment or the facility shut down. He/she also should recommend methods for mitigating the financial COF. 职责: 提供, 设备信息与造价提供, 设备停机的经济冲击建议, 经济故障后果缓解方法

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财务/业务人员

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16.3 Training and Qualifications for RBI Application 培训和资格 16.3.1 Risk Assessment Personnel 风险评估人员 This person(s) should have a thorough understanding of risk analysis by education, training, and/or experience. He/she should have received detailed training on the RBI methodology and on the procedures being used for the RBI assessment so that he/she understands how the program operates and the vital issues that affect the final results. 应当通过,教育,培训, 经验具备风险风险所需要的专业知识. Contractors that provide risk assessment personnel for conducting RBI analysis should have a program of training and be able to document that their personnel are suitably qualified and experienced. Facility owners that have internal risk assessment personnel to conduct RBI analysis should have a procedure to document that their personnel are sufficiently qualified. The qualifications and training of the risk assessment personnel should be documented. 承包商或用户程序与备案: 对风险评估员资格要求,培训记录和经验要求的程序控制与人员资质/培训备案.

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16.3.2 Other Team Members 其他团员 The other team members should receive basic training on RBI methodology and on the software program(s) being used, to the extent they need to understand software to make their contribution. This training should be geared primarily to an understanding and effective application of RBI, as well as an understanding of how the data quality that is input by other team members can affect the results. This training could be provided by the risk assessment personnel on the RBI Team or by another person knowledgeable on RBI methodology and on the program(s) being used. 其他人员应当接受RBI方法论, 所用的软件基本培训. 培训员可能是风险分析员或对RBI方法与选用软件具备专业知识的其他专业人士. 培训注重点为; 如何有效的运用RBI 其他团员提供的数据对分析结果的影响

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培训和资格

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培训和资格

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培训和资格

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17 RBI Documentation and Record keeping 文件与记录

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Contents 17 RBI Documentation and Recordkeeping 17.1 General 17.2 RBI Methodology 17.3 RBI Personnel 17.4 Time Frame 17.5 Basis for the Assignment of Risk 17.6 Assumptions Made to Assess Risk 17.7 Risk Assessment Results 17.8 Mitigation and Follow-up 17.9 Applicable Codes, Standards, and Government Regulations

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17.1 General 总则 It is important that sufficient information is captured to fully document the RBI assessment. Typically, this documentation should include the following data and information: RBI评估必须充分档案, 通常, 以下为档案文件 a) the type of assessment, objectives, and boundaries;考核目标,类型,和范围 b) a procedure for how the selected RBI methodology will be applied at the site (e.g. how to deal with all the options provided by the methodology); 选用的RBI方法,落实到设施设备的作业指导书/程序 c) team members performing the assessment and their skill set relative to RBI; 团队人员备档与其的技能贡献. d) time frame over which the assessment is applicable; 有效时间段 e) the inputs and sources used to determine risk; 评估风险的输入数据与来源

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f) assumptions made during the assessment; 评估假设 g) the risk assessment results (including information on probability and consequence); 评估结果 (包括概率/结果信息) h) follow-up mitigation strategy, if applicable, to manage risk; 后续的缓解策略 i) the mitigated risk levels (i.e. residual risk after mitigation is implemented); 缓解后的残余风险水平 j) references to in-service codes or standards being applied. 参考文献(在职规范/标准)

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Ideally, sufficient data should be captured and maintained such that the assessment can be recreated or updated at a later time by others who were not involved in the original assessment. To facilitate this, it is preferable to store the information in a computerized database. This will enhance the analysis, retrieval, and stewardship capabilities. The usefulness of the database will be particularly important in stewarding recommendations developed from the RBI assessment, and managing overall risk over the specified time frame. 确保足够详细的信息被保存. 在重新或更新评估时不会因为缺少信息导致的困难. 充分的电子档案也能让新加评估团员能得心应手的短时间介入. 电子档案对评估建议管理, 执行缓解时限有显著地帮助.

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17.2 RBI Methodology 方法学 The methodology used to perform the RBI analysis should be documented so that it is clear what type of assessment was performed. The basis for both the probability and consequences of failure should be documented. If a specific software program is used to perform the assessment, this also should be documented. The documentation should be sufficiently complete so that the basis and the logic for the decision making process can be checked or replicated at a later time. 用于执行评估的RBI方法,依据和决策过程中的逻辑必须档案, 从而允许后续的检讨或重复的评估.

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If a specific software program is used to perform the assessment, this also should be documented.

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17.3 RBI Personnel 评估人员 The assessment of risk will depend on the knowledge, experience and judgment of the personnel or team performing the analysis. Therefore, a record of the team members involved should be captured, as well as the skill set that they bring to the team for RBI purposes. This will be helpful in understanding the basis for the risk assessment when the analysis is repeated or updated. 人员资质,所分配的工作范围的档案,提供评估基础,有助于后续复查与更新.

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17.4 Time Frame 时段 The level of risk is usually a function of time. This either is as a result of the (1) time dependence of a damage mechanism, or simply (2) the potential for changes in the operation of equipment. Therefore, the time frame over which the RBI analysis is applicable should be defined and captured in the final documentation. This will permit tracking and management of risk effectively over time. 风险水平通常是时间的函数 (损伤机理的恶化或操作导致的变化), 所以风险评估必须设置有效时间段. 这将允许在时间段里,有效跟踪和管理风险.

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Failure occurred Probability of Failure POF

Damage Tolerance Limit Planned Inspection

Mitigation Deterioration Rate Time Unacceptable inspection interval

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17.5 Basis for the Assignment of Risk 风险的分配基础 The various inputs used to assess both the probability and COF should be captured. This should include, but not necessarily be limited to, the following information:各种用于评估的概率和COF的数据应获取与存档 a) basic equipment data and inspection history critical to the assessment (e.g. operating conditions, materials of construction, service exposure, corrosion rate, inspection history, etc.); 对评估具关键数据; 设备基本资料与检验历史记录.(例如,操作条件,建材,工艺媒介,腐蚀速率,检验历史,等) b) operative and credible damage mechanisms; 活跃可信的损伤机理 c) criteria used to judge the severity of each damage mechanism; 评估损伤机理严峻性的准据

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d) anticipated failure mode(s) (e.g. leak, crack, or rupture); 预测失效模式 e) key factors used to judge the severity of each failure mode; 用来判断各失效模式的严重程度关键因素 f) criteria used to evaluate the various consequence categories, including safety, health, environmental and financial;用来判断各失效后果的准据, 包括, 安全,健康,缓解与财政. g) risk criteria used to evaluate the acceptability of the risks. 用来评估可接受风险的风险准据

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17.6 Assumptions Made to Assess Risk 风险假设 Risk analysis, by its very nature, requires that certain assumptions be made regarding the nature and extent of equipment deterioration. Moreover, the assignment of failure mode and the severity of the contemplated event will invariably be based on a variety of assumptions, regardless of whether the analysis is quantitative or qualitative. To understand the basis for the overall risk, it is essential that these factors be captured in the final documentation. Clearly documenting the key assumptions made during the analysis of probability and consequence will greatly enhance the capability to either recreate or update the RBI assessment. 有系统和明确档案,用来分析概率与故障结的关键假设, 会显著的提高RBI重估与后续更新能力.

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17.7 Risk Assessment Results 风险评估结果 The probability, consequence and risk results should be captured in the documentation. For items that require risk mitigation, the recommendations for and results after mitigation should be documented as well. 概率,失效结果, 风险系数应档案. 那些需要风险缓解的设备, 相关的建议和缓解后的成效也应当档案.

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17.8 Mitigation and Follow-up 缓解与跟踪 One of the most important aspects of managing risk through RBI is the development and use of mitigation strategies. Therefore, the specific risk mitigation required to reduce either probability or consequence should be documented in the assessment. The mitigation “credit” assigned to a particular action should be captured along with any time dependence. The methodology, process and person(s) responsible for implementation of any mitigation should also be documented. 通过RBI管理设备风险,其中一个最重要方面通过开发与运用缓解策略, 档案项有;    

具体的缓解方法(概率) 具体的缓解方法(失效结果) 缓解方法的时段因素(时间依赖性) 缓解执行负责人

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The methodology, process and person(s) responsible for implementation of any mitigation should also be documented.  缓解执行负责人

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The methodology, process and person(s) responsible for implementation of any mitigation should also be documented.  缓解执行负责人

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17.9 Applicable Codes, Standards, and Government Regulations 规范,标准,国家法定要求 Since various codes, standards and governmental regulations cover the inspection for most pressure equipment, it will be important to reference these documents as part of the RBI assessment. This is particularly important where implementation of RBI is used to reduce either the extent or frequency of inspection. See Section 3 for a listing of some relevant codes and standards. 采纳的规范,标准,国家法定要求必须明确的档案, 特别是执行RBI是用来减少检验的幅度或频率.

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18 Summary of RiskBased Inspection Pitfalls 基于风险的检验问题摘要

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Contents 18 Summary of RBI Pitfalls 18.1 General 18.2 Planning 18.3 Data and Information Collection 18.4 Damage Mechanisms and Failure Modes 18.5 Assessing POF 18.6 Assessing Consequence of Failure 18.7 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management 18.8 Risk Management with Inspection Activities 18.9 Other Risk Management Activities 18.10 Reassessment and Updating RBI Assessment 18.11 Roles, Responsibilities, Training, and Qualifications for RBI Team Members 18.12 RBI Documentation and Recordkeeping

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18.1 General 总则 The following is a bulletized summary list of potential pitfalls covered in previous sections of this RP that could lead to less than adequate risk management results from using RBI. It can be used as checklist to review the RBI work process or to audit the effectiveness of an RBI program. 此规范前面章节覆盖推荐实践,可能潜在导致不适当的风险管理结果. 以下为潜在的陷阱(问题); 这里描述的潜在问题可以作为列表审核RBI程序的有效性.

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18.2 Planning 规划  Not defining clear objectives and goals for the RBI process. 不明确的目的与目标  Not screening multi-units to know where to use RBI first. 多单元设施没做设备筛选排名,优先执行分析.  Not defining the physical and operating boundaries adequately. 不明确的设定物理与操作范围  Not defining the operating time period for the risk assessment.没设定风险评估的操作时间  Not adequately defining the time required and resources needed for the project. 不充分的定义项目资源到为的时间点  Not having full management support for the necessary RBI resources. 没得到管理层的全面支持  Unrealistic expectations for the results of RBI. 对结果不切实际的期望

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期望RBI带来不实际的的效益

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Not having full management support for the necessary RBI resources. 没得到管理层的全面支持

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18.3 Data and Information Collection 数据和信息的收集  Not understanding all the data needs.不理解所有的数据需求  Not identifying all the appropriate sources of data/information. 没确定所有的数据/信息的适当来源  Failing to collect all the data/information needed. 没有收集需要的所有的数据/信息  Dealing with poor quality data.处理质量差数据  Not verifying the data to ensure quality.没验证数据质量

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18.4 Damage Mechanisms and Failure Modes 损伤机理和失效模式  Not identifying all the probable and credible damage mechanism and failure modes.不确定所有可能的和可靠的损伤机理和破坏模式  Improperly ruling out damage mechanisms thought to be inactive.错误的排除认为是无效的损伤机理  Operating outside the established IOWs or not properly identifying the correct IOW limits. 在IOW外操作, 没确定好IOW参数  Not understanding the impact of damage mechanisms on pressure equipment resulting from operating outside the IOW. 没明确超越IOW对承压设备的影响  Using software or methodologies that do not cover all active damage mechanisms.所使用软件或方法不能覆盖所有的损伤机制  Inadequate definition of failure modes associated with each damage mechanism. 每个损伤机相关联的失效模式定义不够  Inadequate definition of damage rates for each damage mechanism. 对损伤机理的损坏率定义不足

API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

18.5 Assessing POF 评估故障概率  Not addressing all probably and credible damage mechanisms when determining POF.没覆盖所有可能的和可信的损伤机制  Not understanding the interaction of multiple damage mechanisms in each piece of equipment. 没理解多种损伤机制的相互作用对设备的影响  Not defining the specific POF units of measure to be used. 不明确个别具体故障概率的测量单位  Not using the most appropriate POF methodology for the situation. 没使用最合适的故障概率分析方法  Using generic POFs instead of equipment specific POFs. 通用数据错误的替代具体数据  Inadequate assessment of past inspection effectiveness. 对过去检验有效性缺乏评估  Inadequate assessment of susceptibility to each damage mechanism. 对损伤机理不够详细的分析  Inadequate assessment of damage rates. 恶化率分析不足够

API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

18.6 Assessing COF 评估故障结果  Not identifying all the appropriate incidents/events/outcomes of a failure. 失效导致的事件/结果/未被全部识别  Not identifying all the appropriate consequences of each incident. 事件导致的故障后果未被全部识别  Not selecting the appropriate consequence assessment methodology. 没选对合适的后果评估方法  Not associating the right consequence with each failure mode. 错误的各故障模式和后果结合  Not using the right units of measure for COF. 错误的估量单位  Not knowing the right volume of fluid that can potentially be released. 错误的估计泄漏量  Not understanding the most likely release rate. 缺乏泄漏率的认识  Not understanding the likely form of discharge (i.e. gas, liquid, vapor). 缺乏泄漏模式(气态,液态火蒸汽)  Not accounting for likely dispersion. 扩散模式错误估计

API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

 Not adequately dealing with the all the potential hazards i.e. flammable, toxic, other effects.未覆盖所有潜在的危害  Inadequate knowledge of the effectiveness of hazard detection and mitigation systems installed. 缺乏对危害探测与缓解系统的了解  Not considering all potential impacts (i.e. safety, environmental, business, and repair). 潜在影响(安全,环境,业务,返修)没被充分考虑  Not appreciating that consequence categories are typically relative measures, not absolute. 没意识到结果类别通常是相对的而非绝对值.  Not adequately accounting for the full series of events that may lead to the full consequence. 没充分考虑故障导致的全部事件与后续的全部结果.  Not dealing with potential effects on other process units or facilities (i.e. “knock-on” effects). 没考虑到对周边设备潜在影响

API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

incidents/events/outcomes of a failure. consequences of each incident. Failure mechanism Failure mode #1

Failure mode #2

Incidents/events/outcomes A

Consequence #2 Consequence #1 API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

18.7 Risk Determination, Assessment, and Management 风险确定,评估,管理  Using “black box” software without understanding all the calculations and algorithms. 对所用的软件缺乏认识(计算与计算法)  Failure to identify the specific consequence for each probable failure from each damage mechanism. 具体的失效后果没被识别.  Using inadequate assumptions in place of non-existing or poor quality data/information. 错误或质量低级的数据/信息被引用导致不适当的假设  Using over or under estimated POFs/COFs in the risk determination.太于保守或宽松的概率/后果评估  Not adequately handling uncertainties. 不确定性处理的不妥当  Inadequate risk presentation or communication to stakeholders. 对利益相关者不足够的风险表达与缺乏沟通.  Not having risk acceptance criteria/thresholds. 没设定接受准据与报警线  Inappropriate or untimely risk management activities. 风险评估在不合适的时间/季节执行  Not understanding the real risk drivers (i.e. COF, POF, or both). 对真正的风险推动因素的缺乏认识. API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

18.8 Risk Management with Inspection Activities 检查活动的风险管理  Inadequate inspection planning based on the risk assessment results. 检验计划不足  Lack of inspection plans for each probable/credible damage mechanism. 缺乏对每个可能/可信的损伤机理的检验计划  Lack of an objective, structured inspection planning process for the risk results. 缺少一个客观的检验框架针对风险缓解  Not appreciating when inspection activities have little or no value in risk mitigation. 没意识到有的风险不能以检验手段缓解.  Not choosing the most appropriate inspection technique for risk reduction. 检验方法的选用错误  Not choosing the right combination of inspection frequencies, techniques and practices. 没选用合适的,检验频率,技术与实践  Lack of appropriate or timely mitigation based on the inspection findings. 没有根据检查结果合适的或及时缓解  Inadequate planning for the resources necessary to implement the RBI plans. 缺乏规划必要资金执行检查活动.

API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

18.9 Other Risk Management Activities 其他风险管理活动  Not appreciating the need for and implementing risk management activities other than inspection. 没意识到风险管理用于降低风险非仅仅依靠检验  Not communicating with other stakeholders about potential for other risk management activities. 没和对利益相关者表达/沟通, 其他潜在的风险管理活动.

API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

18.10 Reassessment and Updating RBI Assessment 新评估和更新RBI评估  Not appreciating the dynamic aspects of risks (i.e. changing with time). 没意识到风险的动态性  Not knowing when to do RBI reassessments and updates. 不知道重新评估/更新的间隔/时间  Not having a good connection between MOC and RBI reassessments. 对重估/更新与设备变革管理的关联缺少认识  Not doing reassessments on a timely basis. 不及时的执行重估  Not identifying impact of operational changes that may affect the IOW. 没识别到操作参数变化对IOW的影响

API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

18.11 Roles, Responsibilities, Training, and Qualifications for RBI Team Members 角色,职责,培训,和团队成员资格  Not having specific designated roles for each RBI team member. 没明确的对队伍分配角色  Not having all the right RBI team members. 错误的选择成员  Having team members with inadequate skills, experience, or knowledge. 成员缺乏需要的技能,经验,或知识  Inadequate training on the RBI work process. 缺乏对成员培训  Not having an effective team leader. 缺乏有效团队领导  Not having a skilled risk analyst.没有一个熟练的风险分析  Handing over the RBI project to consultants without adequate integration and overview.在没有足够的整合和概述的情况下移交RBI项目给分包商.

API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

18.12 RBI Documentation and Record keeping 文件和记录  Not appreciating the value/need for full RBI documentation. 没意识到RBI全面备档的好处  Not understanding what needs to be documented. 不知道应当备档的科目  Not documenting all the assumptions made during the process and reasons therefore. 没备档全部RBI项目的假设与其背景.

API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang

API Analyst

API 580 Charlie Chong/ Fion Zhang