NUCLEAR POWER POLICY SUPPORT AND CAPACITY TO EXPAND IN ASIA

In “Investing in the future of advanced nuclear,” Wood Mackenzie reported that policy support grew in key Asian markets that account for 50% of the global nuclear capacity as of 2022.

Nuclear power in key Asian markets, such as China, Japan, South Korea, and India, is expected to expand as these markets have nuclear projects either planned or in development.

At the end of 2022, for instance, Japan’s Nuclear Regulation Authority outlined new plans to extend the lifetimes of its existing reactors to more than 60 years and to develop and construct new ones. India also has more than 5 gigawatts of nuclear in active development, which the market intends to increase to 22GW by 2031.

Moreover, China is growing its existing and new technologies rapidly; whilst South Korea targets six new reactors.

“Critical to long-term net zero emissions pathways, nuclear power also addresses several challenges facing the world today – the need for reliable, low-carbon energy supply,” David Brown, director, Energy Transition Service for Wood Mackenzie, said.

“Nuclear is a key part of addressing the energy trilemma, by limiting the role of higher cost marginal supply sources, such as natural gas.”

Brown noted more investments in conventional and emerging nuclear technologies are needed, considering 70% of the current capacity was built between 1970 and 1990 which are mostly in the US and Europe.

“New reactors with innovative technologies must be brought online, with the dual target of delivering more low-carbon energies at a competitive price point,” he said.

Increase investments, lower the cost

Brown added increasing investments in advanced nuclear technologies, such as small modular reactors (SMRs), could lower costs to a competitive level.

“We project that by 2030, SMR costs can fall quickly to be competitive with abated thermal capacity. By 2050, SMR costs could fall even further to be competitive with thermal capacity,” he said.

Brown noted this could also improve time to market and make nuclear a “viable competitor” with renewables. As nuclear capacity is expected to grow, Wood Mackenzie also forecast increased demand for uranium.

The demand will in particular remain flat until 2030, but then nearly double to meet its energy transition outlook and triple to meet its accelerated energy transition 2 scenarios.

Wood Mackenzie noted there is enough uranium to meet this demand.