China’s solar power to drive strong renewables growth

China is expected to sustain its renewable energy growth over the next decade, primarily propelled by an expansion in solar power, supported by government policies and sectoral advancements, according to a report from BMI Country Risk & Industry Analysis.

In a report, BMI said China’s renewable sector is supported by government policies intended to increase renewable energy generation to meet additional electricity demand.

“We expect this growth to continue over the coming 10 years, mainly coming from the solar power sector,” BMI reported.

China continued to experience growth in its non-hydropower renewables sector with a 19% and 19.2% increase in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

Citing the latest data released by the National Energy Administration in March 2023, China added slightly more than 20.4 GW of solar photovoltaic capacity, and about 5.8 GW of wind power in January and February 2023 combined.

The market also added a total of 13.3 GW of solar capacity during the rest of the first quarter of 2023.

BMI has noted, “We believe that China will experience its strongest solar capacity growth yet in 2023, ending the year with slightly more than 500.2 GW in solar PV capacity.”

INDIA’S GREEN LEAP CAN SAVE UP TO US$19.5B ANNUALLY

India can save up to US$19.5b (INR1.59t) annually if it pushes through with its plans to add a total of 76 gigawatts (GW) of solar and wind power capacity by 2025, the Global Energy Monitor (GEM) reported.

Citing data from its Global Solar Power Tracker and Global Wind Power Tracker, GEM found that India ranked seventh amongst countries with the most prospective renewable power. India currently accounted for 5% of all the followed China, Australia, Brazil, the United States, Vietnam, and Greece.

GEM noted that the planned additional capacity in solar and wind power could help India avoid the use of almost 78 million tonnes of coal per year. This is equivalent to about 32 GW in coal power plant capacity, which is more than the new coal capacity India has added since 2018.

India currently plans to add some 420 GW of wind and solar power by 2030, which is estimated to increase the market’s annual savings to more than US$58b. This will likely lead to a total savings of around US$368b by 2030.

“Save money, slash emissions – India’s switch from coal to clean power is a win-win. A promising step towards meeting the country’s net zero emissions target by 2070, India will be richer and cleaner by quitting coal,” said Shradhey Prasad, project manager for the Global Wind Power Tracker.

“Costs for solar and wind power continue to plummet, and compared to volatile fossil fuel prices, renewables present a far better option for building new energy infrastructure,” Prasad added.

GEM added that the additional 76 GW of new solar and wind capacity will likely cost India about US$51b. The country could, however, offset this within just two and a half years with its nearly US$20b savings annually.

The expansion of solar capacity will be driven by the operation of large-scale solar projects that were stalled by the pandemic and the acceleration of China’s solar equipment manufacturing sector.

Solar net additions in China in the next 10 years is expected to reach 1,136.1 GW. Some of the government programmes that will boost the growth of renewable energy in China include the launch of large-scale renewable power programmes such as the solar and wind construction projects in the Gobi and Tengger Deserts.

The suggested reintroduction of the project registration for the China Certified Emmission Reduction scheme for emissions trading will also contribute to driving renewables growth as this will add incentives for project developers to generate and sell credit from the projects.

Coal’s share

Despite China’s reliance on coal to meet its power generation needs, the share of coal in its energy mix will likely decrease in the coming years as it is offset by renewables, according to BMI.

Currently, the market sources more than 60% of its electricity needs from coal-fired power generation.

On top of this, some 20 GW of coalfired power plants have been approved in the first quarter of 2023. This is higher than the 18 GW recorded in 2021.

“We believe that this does not necessarily mean that the net coal-fired power capacity will grow by 20 GW over the coming 10 years,” the report read.

“Instead, we believe that it will be used to replace old and inefficient power plants that are running at low capacities,” it added. BMI expects coal-fired generation to peak in the latter half of the decade before gradually declining. Nonhydropower renewables, on the other hand, are expected to meet the growing demand in power consumption.