Protectionism, inflation weigh on insurers

Valuations

Insurers will need to be more nimble in their decision-making if they wish to cash in on the earnings tailwinds from higher interest rates.

Whilst the higher interest rates may provide a boon for insurers’ earnings, they also face balancing out customers’ difficulty to pay their premiums as they adjust up their pricing.

The year of 2023 thus far saw insurers face a triple whammy of high inflation, high interest rates, and increased protectionism.

“This isn’t the first inflationary environment the insurance industry has had to navigate, but it is shaping up to be one of the most difficult. Whilst inflation and recession will hurt insurers in the form of higher claims costs and reduced demand, higher interest rates may provide an earnings tailwind, thanks to improved investment returns,” Ernst & Young (EY) noted in their outlook report.

But those returns will require brave decision making, careful hedging and timely refinements to asset and liability management (ALM) policies, said the reports authors: Isabelle Santenac, Anita Sun-Young Bong,

Ed Majkowski, Peter Manchester, Lorenzo Fattebene, and Anna Huyronovich

“In the Asia-Pacific region, the short tailed nature of insurance products in many markets gives insurers increased ability to reprice policies quickly, thus correcting for inflation and partially compensating for depleted reserves,”EY said.

Firms that outsource key parts of the value chain, such as investment management, IT services, will certainly feel an additional pinch, they warned. Amongst segments, non-life insurers are likely to realise the positive effects on investment income more quickly, as they maintain relatively short-duration portfolios. If the interest rates remain high, long-term returns will also improve because bond portfolios gradually will roll over into higher yields.

Higher interest equal higher yields

Life insurers are expected to benefit from the discounted values of liabilities. Furthermore, if interest rates remain high for the longer term, this may lead to interest in guaranteed income products treading higher, according to the EY report.

However, the likely outflows of customers moving into guaranteed income products, which require more solvency capital, must also be taken into account.

“The hit on demand and retention could also be significant, with more consumers lowering coverages, increasing deductibles or deciding they can no longer afford insurance. Some competitors may increase guarantees to gain market share despite the volatility,” EY said.

InsurTech in doldrums

The InsurTech space is another segment experiencing some price corrections. In the US, for example, EY noted significant drops in InsurTech valuations.

Globally, funding to InsurTechs have fallen by 41% in the first half of 2022 to $4.8b, from $8.2b in the first six months of 2023.

The EY analysts advised insurers to look out for opportunities in the InsurTech space, which apart from being a source of competition has been noted as a source of innovation.

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