Blogger vs. Fan on the Jordan Love Pick

THE BRAZEN BLOGGER

By: JACOB WESTENDORF

Let’s go back to April 2020. The world is in flux because of Covid-19. Sports have been on pause since the middle of March. Everything is uncertain.

We finally have a distraction: the NFL draft. The Green Bay Packers were set to pick near the end of the first round, with needs along the defensive front, at linebacker, and, of course, at wide receiver. The prevailing thought was that a team that was one game away from the Super Bowl the previous season would continue to add around its future Hall of Fame quarterback.

Instead, Brian Gutekunst made his legacy pick: Jordan Love, quarterback from Utah State.

Gutekunst talked all offseason about how the Packers would not pass on a potential franchise quarterback if they believed one was available. It was kind of his way of saying that there was one that they liked. We later found out the Packers did a lot of homework on Love. Matt LaFleur met with him and his former coaches. They wanted to know everything about the Utah State product.

What I’m here to tell you is that the selection was a good one.

Draft analysis always gets easier in hindsight. Aaron Rodgers responded to the Love selection by winning his third MVP award.

That has led to even more gnashing of teeth over the pick. That being said, it’s impossible to view that pick through that lens. You can only view it through what information was available at that time.

The reality that nobody wants to admit is that while Rodgers was able to put up some impressive numbers, most notably taking care of the ball, there was evidence that his play was slipping.

If you look at December 2019, that is when Rodgers’ play looked to be hitting a bit of a wall. He started off with a bang with a four-touchdown performance in the Meadowlands against the New York Giants. From that point forward, his overall numbers looked OK, but his play did not match the box score.

THE FRUSTRATED FAN

By: JACKSON BAILEY

I remember waking up in a great mood the morning of the 2020 NFL draft. There are so many great players projected in the late-first/early-second round that the Packers cannot possibly mess their pick up. All day, I’m working outside without a cloud in the sky, the sun is shining bright, and the smile on my face can’t be wrestled away. Little did I know, by the time the 26th pick happened, not enough sun in the world could pierce through the thickness of gloomy clouds the Packers front office had placed over Packer Nation.

The 2019 Packers were good but not great. 13–3 is fine and dandy, but most of us were not sold on them being true contenders. However, if you don’t lose any key players and you improve a few positions, contenders now become the NFC favorites. Those positions were wide receiver, linebacker, and slot corner, or just about anything other than kicker, punter, and…you guessed it, quarterback.

The Packers’ needs aligned with the top talent at that point in the draft. I was a fan of multiple receivers, including Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault Jr., and Chase Claypool. There were also some drool-worthy defensive backs still available. Trevon Diggs was begging to be drafted, while Antoine Winfield Jr. might have been the biggest miss in the draft. Whether or not you think he would have helped the Packers, if they had drafted him, he wouldn’t have been on the other side to torture the offense in the NFCCG. But out of all players available, one that stuck with me was Patrick Queen. Queen was a linebacker who followed in Devin White’s footsteps at LSU. Most know White as the most dominant defensive player in this year’s playoffs, but what most don’t know is that Queen was statistically better in each of their final years at LSU and also better in their NFL rookie years. Queen had 106 total tackles to White’s 91 while also having more sacks and more tackles for loss.

Instead of these options, Green Bay decided to draft a quarterback, even though they already have future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. History shows that late-first-round quarterbacks don’t generally pan out. Here is the complete list of quarterbacks taken in the latter half of the first round (15th or later) since Aaron Rodgers was drafted: Jason Campbell, Brady Quinn, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Tim Tebow, Brandon Weeden, EJ Manuel, Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel, Paxton Lynch, Lamar Jackson, Dwayne

Rodgers had two games in that stretch where his completion percentage was lower than 50 percent. His deep ball accuracy did not look anything like the player the Packers had grown accustomed to. He rebounded with a solid performance against Seattle but ended with a poor performance in San Francisco.

By the end of the season, it became a fair question as to whether the Packers could still win because of Aaron Rodgers. Enter Jordan Love. Love was considered a raw project who needed to sit before getting on the field, so the Packers were a perfect situation for him.

Love is a classic boom-or-bust prospect. If he hits, it’s like Patrick Mahomes. If he doesn’t, it’s more like Paxton Lynch. In a league where quarterbacks are more important than ever, it’s never a bad idea to take a chance.

Perhaps the biggest argument in favor of Love is looking around at some other quarterback situations in the league.

It’s easy for a fan base to want their team to go all in. That is what the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers did. Those teams continued to move money to the future for their Hall of Fame quarterbacks.

The issue with it is when the bill comes due. New Orleans was good enough to win a championship last year, but their quarterback’s arm was shot. Drew Brees had clearly declined, but the Saints had little choice but to play him. They weren’t benching him for Jameis Winston in a postseason game.

Essentially, the Saints continued to play him because he had earned the right to go out on his terms. Now, their team is in cap hell, their roster will be severely compromised, and they have limited options for who the next quarterback will be.

Pittsburgh is currently in the same spot. Ben Roethlisberger looked like an aging quarterback coming off of a major elbow surgery by the end of last season. The Steelers, ideally, would move on from Roethlisberger, but they cannot. Roethlisberger would cost them $41 million on the salary cap doing so. The Steelers’ other options currently are Mason Rudolph and Dwayne Haskins. Neither of those guys are inspiring confidence as a franchise quarterback.

What the Packers did was continue to hedge their bet at the game’s most important position. If Rodgers rebounded and had the season he ended up having, it’s crow they’ll happily eat. If Rodgers continued what looked like a steady decline, they have a prospect they like and developed to eventually take over for Rodgers.

It’s exactly what they did with Brett Favre. That move worked out OK. Time will tell if this one will, but their process was a good one. Haskins, and Jordan Love. I give you these names not to tell you that Love will unequivocally be bad, merely that history is not necessarily on his side.

When looking at the Jordan Love situation in Green Bay, it’s easy for most to compare that draft process in a similar light to the one Aaron Rodgers went through in 2005. And while tempting to do so, let me reiterate Rodgers’ own sentiments about the comparison in an interview he did with Kyle Brandt. Brett Favre had been mulling retirement for several years, while Rodgers has said he wants to play into his forties. Favre also led a 2004 team to a 10–6 record getting ousted in the wild card round, and those Packers weren’t a player or two away from being a Super Bowl favorite like the 2019 Packers were. Finally, when it comes down to how the draft unfolds, Rodgers was a player who was in conversation to go first overall but inexplicably fell into Green Bay’s lap at 24, while Love was a project QB many weren’t sure would even go in the first round.

Love could turn out to be incredible, or he could be below average; none of us really know. What we do know, however, is that the Packers have an all-time great quarterback who’s ready to win now, and the organization thought it better to build for the future. Ask the Bengals, the Browns, and the Jaguars how the last 20 years have gone trying to build for the future. Ask the Buccaneers how they feel right now going all-in on the present without mortgaging their future.

In a football world full of unknowns and “what ifs” why not build around the one sure thing you have in Aaron Rodgers? Over the past few weeks, you have seen players like Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson put their teams on notice for far less egregious acts than using a first-round pick on their replacement. The Packers are lucky Rodgers didn’t force his way out of town on the spot. So, I say, while it’s not too late, ride the unbelievable Rodgers wave as long as possible, because you never know what’s on the other side.