Learning by Training

by Arend van Campen

IS UNCERTAINTY A WICKED PROBLEM?

IT IS A SOCIAL cultural problem that is difficult or impossible to solve for as many as four reasons: incomplete or contradictory knowledge, the number of people and opinions involved, the large economic burden, and the interconnected nature of these problems with other problems. Does this sound familiar? To tackle and solve such problems it is important to learn what complexity is. Complexity can be described as follows:

When an organisation, corporation, industry or political process is understood as a living system of communication, their interconnected and interdependent relationships within and outside of their networks change all the time. This complexity, due to dynamic and perpetually changing information feedback loops, cannot be managed by direct causal action (cause and effect reactions) but can only be maximally controlled by steering with that information in real time. Adaptability to constantly evolving changes by using all information directly is needed to ensure continuity and longevity of the living system.

Nature works like that too. Complexity is a consequence of a myriad of unknown factors, relationships and reliance that nevertheless have a direct impact on organisations and can only be ‘controlled’ by learning and actual adaptation in real time. These so-called non-linear effects or non-causal stimuli - from often unknown but interconnected and interdependent sources - cannot be controlled by old-fashioned linear measures of control such as regulations or compliance, but can be ‘navigated’ by the use of positive and negative feedback, i.e. amplifying or correcting information. Cybernetics is needed here to make sure all information is used.

When only linear control systems, such as empirical verification by reductionism or ISO standards are used, they will not be able to cover a non-linear or complex reality which consists of a linear (cause & effect) part, but for a larger extent of a non-linear, non-causal or dynamic part, which is much greater and cannot be known in advance, because it constantly changes due to unforeseen and unknowable actions by the entire, also dynamic, network of which it is a part and on which all forms of organisation are dependent. In short: behaviour of the parts in a network cannot be predicted. Awareness of such behaviour is needed but needs a new, systemic point of view.

Control systems we have tried such as HSEQ control, industrial compliance and ESG ecological restrictions have not been able to maintain equilibrium or homeostasis in the way nature does. Nature works according to cybernetical principles. All we have to do is to learn from and copy nature because we are a part of and dependent on it. One tries to regulate and control the linear world by means of rules, laws, police, army and power, i.e. by force. But this falls short because then you can only control a small part of reality and you will always be too late because this can only work reactively and never proactively. That is why TankTerminalTraining developed a training method focusing on the ‘steering’ of complexity of bulk liquid storage and shipping. Arend van Campen is invited to speak about ‘Uncertainty’ at the upcoming European Bulk Liquid Storage Conference in Rotterdam.

This is the latest in a monthly series of articles by Arend van Campen, founder of TankTerminalTraining, who can be contacted at arendvc@ tankterminaltraining.com. More information on the company’s activities can be found at www.tankterminaltraining.com.st