Brexit for British Fashion: an opportunity or a challenge? 1. Introduction Brexit, is a combination of “Britain” and “exit”, means the referendum on whether Britain should leave the EU, which was held on June 23, 2016. The vote was 51.9% in favor of leaving the EU and 48.1% in favor of remaining in the EU; Turnout in election was 71.8%, More than 30 million people voted; Britain will leave the EU (Kenton, 2019). Leaving the EU is a solid decision. However, the terms and negotiation regarding how to leave and how to remain the best situation for both the UK and the EU is unanswered at this stage. 1.1. Distribution of voting From the perspective of industrial distribution, the residents of the "Leave" group are mostly engaged in traditional industries, while the residents of the "Remain" group are mostly engaged in the tertiary industry in big cities (Shafique, 2016). 1.2. The structure of this article The advantages and disadvantages of Brexit are specific to a certain industry, they will be reflected in different ways. In this article, we mainly talk about the impact of Brexit on the fashion industry in detail. The remainder of this paper is divided into four sections. The first is to introduce the supporters and opponents of Brexit in the fashion industry. The next step is to analyze the impact of Brexit on the British fashion industry from the economic and noneconomic aspects. Then there are the thoughts and ways of mature and smallandmedium sized companies to deal with Brexit. On the other side, Brexit may bring opportunities to British fashion. 2. Brexit supporters versus Brexit opponents Fashion is one of the most important industries in the UK. According to the CEO of British Fashion Council (BFC), the British Fashion industry contributed 32 billion pounds to the British economy in 2018 (Sleigh, 2018). However, the vast majority of fashion workers do not support Brexit. According to a survey of 500 designers by the BFC ahead of the EU referendum in 2016, 90 percent of designers plan to vote "remain" (Tobin, 2019). Another survey by the British Creative Industries Federation also found that 96 percent of British fashion industry workers supported "Britain remaining in the EU" (Aouf, 2016). 2.1. The main components of British fashion workers who opponent Brexit. In May 2016, more than 280 British creatives, including Imran Amed, editor and chief executive of Business of Fashion, Alexandra Shulman, editor of British Vogue, and designer Vivienne Westwood, issued a joint letter in support of Britain remaining in the EU; Institutions such as the University of the Arts, London are all in favor of staying in the EU, saying they need to focus on access to the EU market and the flow of talents (BoF Team, 2016). Also, in May 2016, the "Britain Stronger in Europe campaign" released an open letter, which was signed by several famous fashion figures, including Katharine Hamnett and executive chairman of the Dune Group Daniel Rubin. The letter said EU funding for fashion research projects is also an important reason for remaining in the EU (Theodosi, 2016).
Moreover, a number of menswear designers, including Christopher Raeburn, E. Tautz and Patrick Grant, wore tshirts with proEuropean slogans to show their support for “remaining in the European Union” at "London Collections: men" on June 10 to 13, 2016 (Theodosi, 2016). Overall, most practitioners in the industry support "remain in Europe". They believe that after Brexit, the UK fashion industry will be seriously affected.
3. The impact of Brexit on the British fashion industry from the economic aspects 3.1. Exchange rate: Value of Sterling Jan 2015Aug 2019:
Source: bbc.com, 2019 This chart shows the change in the value of the pound from January 2015 to August 2019. The black vertical line in the middle refers to the day of the referendum (Breinlich et al., 2017). Since the referendum results came out, the sterling pound has been depreciating, from a sharp fall at the beginning to several subsequent plunges and continued general declines; The value of the pound as a whole fell by 25%. This means that Britain has to pay more if it imports products from other countries, so that leads to many UK brands start pricing in euro. However, it is more advantageous if it manufactures products for export. Meanwhile, Sterling interest rates also plunged 17% (Expatica, 2019). 3.2. Tariff: 75% of the raw materials or components of British fashion products come from the EU, Britain imports about $10 billion worth of clothes and shoes from the European Union every year. Also, 74% of the fashion industry's products are exported to the EU each year, but after the
referendum, the EU put an import tax of 11.5% on British clothes and 6.5% on textiles. The UK government could also impose unspecified tariffs on goods imported into the UK, which could lead to a double tax on companies. Because of the additional duties, there are many procedures for the import and export of raw materials or products, customs may form congestion, resulting in the delay of production and delivery (Biondi, 2019). Richard Lim, chief executive of analyst Retail Economics, told the Evening Standard, “if the final Brexit is nodeal Brexit, the tariffs could cost fashion houses more than £1 billion a year (Adegeest, 2019)” . 3.3. Unemployment rate: The Office for National Statistics said that in the three months to January 2019, Britain's unemployment rate had fallen to a new low of 3.9%, its lowest since early 1975; In the wake of the Brexit vote, 222,000 jobs are vacant, and UK companies are stepping up hiring. Across different sectors, a large proportion of EU workers are in highly skilled sectors such as creative industry, and in lowskilled sectors such as manufacturing; As a result of the loss of the free movement between EU and Britain workers, the number of EU workers working in the UK has plummeted, the diversity of talent is decreasing, leading to severe talent shortages and competition among employers (Partington, 2019). 3.4. Inflation: Consumer Price Index (CPI) from Jan 2015July 2017
CPI from Jan 2014 – Aug 2019
After the referendum, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose at a rapid rate, from 0.4% in 2016 to 3.0% in October 2017 (Breinlich et al., 2017). The main causes of inflation are the fall in the pound makes it more expensive for Britain to import both final goods and semifinished products, and british companies will have to pay higher wages if they need to hire staff from the EU (Tobin, 2019). In addition, the EU imposed tariffs on made in Britain products, while the UK government also imposed tariffs on products made in the
EU, which further increased the cost (Breinlich et al., 2017). Furthermore, nominal wages are rising because of a shortage of talent in Britain (Tobin, 2019). 3.5. Wage: (Jan 2015 July 2017) (Jan 2018 – Aug 2019) Nominal & real wage Nominal wage in manufacturing industry
From the figure above on the left, nominal wage is virtually unaffected by Brexit immediately, but because of inflation, real wages immediately fall (Breinlich et al., 2017). However, from the figure above on the right, nominal wages in manufacturing have been on the rise from January 2018 to August 2019 (Trading Economics, 2019). In 2018, average nominal wages grew at the fastest rate in 10 years, but inflation is not taken into account. When taking inflation into account, 2018's real wage did not increase by much, by 1.2%. Besides, the increase in nominal wage is actually not caused by rapid economic growth, but due to the UK's labor force is in shortage (Chapman, 2019). 3.6. Turnover Office for National Statistic and Vogue Business show that the retail industry continued to grow from 2016 to 2019 due to the number of tourists coming to Britain to spend money is increasing. However, this does not mean that Brexit will be good for UK retail in the long run (Arnett, 2019). Chief operating and financial officer of Burberry, Julie Brown pointed out that if the UK trades in accordance with the WTO after Brexit, it may reduce the revenue of Burberry by tens of millions of dollars; Although this is manageable for Burberry, it is challenging for the smaller companies (Biondi, 2019).
3.7. Investment:
British companies invest less in others. Michael ward, managing director of Harrods, said: “this continuing uncertainty is affecting companies' ability to plan for the future, with a large number of companies cutting back on spending and investment (Adegeest, 2019)”. International companies also are reluctant to invest in British brands due to the potential risks and uncertainties; Besides, before the referendum, some investors were willing to invest in British companies because it was a good way to open the EU market (Adegeest, 2019). Moreover, European stock markets fell sharply, with the FTSE 100 plunging and the shares of Burberry, Mulberry, Jimmy Choo and other big companies taking a hit, wiping £122.2bn off their market capitalization (Hoang, 2016). 4. the impact of Brexit on the British fashion industry from the noneconomic aspects 4.1. supply chain: Many designers worry about the availability and price of raw materials for their products. Irish designer Richard Malone usually buys his fabrics from abroad; In addition to Tariff, the depreciation of sterling, a large amount of paperwork, delayed delivery at the port and other factors have caused a sharp rise in fabric prices, he is also worried that Brexit may endanger the cooperation with international suppliers, resulting in the loss of access to the best raw materials (Biondi, 2019). 4.2. Production/ productivity:
Brexit has caused a drop in orders for the British fashion industry, from the figure above, the IHS Markit/Cips manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 47.4 in August 2019, down from 48.0 a month earlier (50 is an index of industry growth or contraction) (Partington, 2019). Also, British workers are reluctant to work in manufacturing factories because factory workers in manufacturing are paid less, leading many UK manufacturers to recruit skilled workers from the EU (70% of manufacturing workers in the London area are from eastern Europe); However, under the current immigration scheme, EU workers are hard to get a visa, says UK Fashion and Textile Association’s Mansell (Biondi, 2019). According to the pictures below, the number of EU citizens emigrating to Britain has plummeted, and the shortage of staff has affected production.
On top of that, Labor productivity fell by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2019, the fourth consecutive quarter of decline (Trading Economics, 2019). 4.3. Visa: The British government has proposed giving EU citizens studying in the UK a sixmonth visa to look for work; Nigel Carrington, vice chancellor of the University of the Arts London, says “this will reduce the enthusiasm of EU students to study in the UK” (Biondi, 2019). Besides, even shortterm work in the UK or EU may require a visa (GOV.UK, 2019). However, there is a good thing, British Fashion Council will help Home Office issue 2000 fasttracked visas to top designers from outside the EU (Tobin, 2019). 4.4. Education: After Brexit, Britain no longer has EU funding and Erasmus plans (SelbonneWillie, 2019). The mood among students and teachers is gloomy, with the possible elimination of aid and student loans, in addition to rising tuition fees (Kendrick, 2017). EU citizens make up 15% of students at the University of the Arts of London, 11% at the University of Westminster and 24% at the Royal College of Arts, but this has fallen to single digits since Brexit. Besides, Fashion Roundtable's survey found that 27 per cent of people in the Fashion industry said they would leave the UK if the government did not meet the preferential terms the industry wanted (Biondi, 2019). But, on the one hand, the pound has fallen, so tuition fees have not changed much in the short term. On the other hand, some school rules have not changed. For example, according to the notice issued by UAL, students enrolled as “family/EU status” in 2019/2020/2021 will be unchanged for tuition fees and loans, regardless of how the UK leaves the EU (UAL, 2019). 4.5. EU talents: Restricting free movement is one of the most damaging effects of Brexit on the fashion industry. Many British fashion designers and companies employ European designers in the UK or have studios in the EU where they hire talent. Many of Kering's top executives, such as chief executive officer Francois and Henri Pinault, live in London, but Kering is based in Paris, France, to ensure that designers have access to the best tailors and studios in Europe (Hendriksz, 2016). With the ease of recruiting from neighboring EU countries, the ‘Design: product, graphic and fashion design’ group in the creative industry had the 16.6% increase in Gross Value Added between 2013 and 2014, after the abolition of the open borders, it is impossible for the industry to
maintain such growth rate (Departure for Culture Media & Sport, 2016). With the end of the EU funding programme and the Erasmus programme, many EU workers are likely to choose to work across the channel, and all signs point to a wave of departures (Winston, 2016). 5. The way British fashion SME and mature companies reacted to Brexit Vogue has interviewed 15 people from the fashion industry regarding how to deal with Brexit. There are two major problems that British fashion companies need to consider, which are supply chain and future perspectives (Biondi, 2019). 5.1. Small and Mediumsize Enterprises (SME): There are total of 59,395 SME fashion businesses in the UK, they account for 99.68% of Britain's £32.3 billion fashion industry (Biondi, 2019). Some companies have changed the way they do business, and some companies have had to change their designs because of Brexit. Aries are brands that are being sold in sterling and are buying their materials in euros, so any currency fluctuations can have a big impact, said Sofia Prantera, cofounder and creative director of Aries, so Prantera is currently only able to operate Aries in two currencies (Firth, 2019). Londonbased designer Richard Quinn has had trouble in sourcing after the original supplier told them they could not get hold of the original rhinestone chain after Brexit. But since Quinn's brand has hundreds of dresses that need to be fitted with rhinestone chains, Quinn is now looking for alternatives (BoF team, 2019). Also, some have decided to keep their factories in the UK, but some have moved their factories to the EU. Alim Latif, a designer in east London and cofounder of ROKER, a bespoke footwear brand. ROKER is a brand proud of "made in Britain", which they think can be a selling point, so Latif prefers to stay in the UK (Firth, 2019). Katharine Hamnett, who has set up her own Italian company near Venice, said it was convenient for production and logistics and she did not want the production process to be adversely affected by Brexit, and she said it would be very sad if she could not find a "made in Italy" topend, and she believes many companies will follow their example and move to the EU (Newbold, 2019). However, it will be difficult for many small companies to move their factories to the EU, and many SMEs do not have enough cash reserves to protect themselves by buying large amounts of foreign currency (Hoang, 2017), and because they may not have enough experience to deal with such a big crisis, Britain could lose a lot of potential companies. 5.2. Mature companies: Many mature big companies are also agonizing over the damage caused by Brexit, while some mature big companies think they are strong enough to survive this test. Both Kering and Paul Smith are confident in adapting to new circumstances; They said they would push for new initiatives to increase the exchange and cooperation of trade, talent and ideas (Hoang, 2016; Newbold, 2019). Furthermore, any large companies have backup plans for their stock. Companies like Kering, LVMH and Harrods, for example, are stocking up on goods so that they can be prepared for emergencies (BOF team, 2019).
But Britain has run out of warehouse space (Biondi, 2019). Company executives anticipate future logistics difficulties, some companies will avoid the UK's expensive and congested import and export routes by setting up production plants and distribution companies overseas (Firth, 2019). Besides, Paul Smith made it clear that they were loyal to Europe. They sell products in more than 70 countries and have offices in London, Milan, Paris, New York and Tokyo. Paul Smith has been buying fabrics from other parts of Europe and Italy since 1976 (Newbold, 2019). However, some companies say they will not move out of the country. Carol Fairweather, Burberry's outgoing chief financial officer, said Burberry will remain as a British brand and sustain its operation system in Britain, but the company will work on finding ways to reduce customs costs (Hoang, 2017). 5.3. SME and Mature companies: Small and mediumsized companies, as well as mature ones, have largely decided not to open new factories or expand existing ones in Britain; Almost all are cutting back on spending for fear that a hard Brexit, without a cushion, would cause the economy to shrink (Biondi, 2019). In June 2019, Arcadia will close 50 of its 570 standalone stores, reduce rents at nearly 200 stores and cut 1,000 jobs; Cutting stores, rents and staff will help boost profits in the short term; Meanwhile, Arcadia will cut spending on its eight brands, and closing more stores is a priority (Butler, 2019). Additionally, the fashion industry is also actively networking with partners in Europe (Hoang, 2016). In order to maintain their competitiveness, British retailers have strengthened their agreements and cooperation with nonEU regions too (FTI Consulting, 2017). According to UBS, about threequarters of British clothing and homefurnishing retailers source their purchases from Asia (Hoang, 2016). Laura Ashley, the fashion and housewares company, has started to focus on Asia, opening stores in India and Thailand. Laura Ashley's UK revenues fell after Brexit, but the company's online business in China continued to grow (Yi, 2019). With all the fashion companies preparing contingency plans, uncertainty could reshape the garment trade industry, which is shifting its center of attention as trade between emerging economies in the southern hemisphere surges; These changes may cause companies to reconsider their purchasing and pricing strategies (Unison, 2019). What's more, under the background of Brexit, if fashion companies could make use of artificial intelligence and big data to predict trends and consumer needs, they can reduce the risks brought by Brexit; It could be argued that Brexit has in some ways accelerated the widespread adoption of these emerging technologies (Unison, 2019). 6. Brexit may bring opportunities to the British fashion industry 6.1. The fashion industry is global, and the trade axis is changing. For Britain, the garment industry may have a boosting trade between developing countries and redesigning trade agreements may be new opportunities (Unison, 2019). British fashion designer Olivia von Halle said the UK fashion industry is dependent on global business and whose axis of global trade is shifting towards Asia; Many imported products of his brand are from China and
exported to the United States, Canada and Australia, so they are not really affected by Brexit (Petter, 2019). Moreover, Brexit may encourage British universities to cooperate more closely with research partners outside the EU. Furthermore, Britain can trade with the EU even if it is not a member; For example, Switzerland does not belong to the EU, but exports more to the EU than Britain does (Buchanan, 2016). 6.2. Not subject to strict EU rules. When Britain was a member of the European Union, it was not allowed to negotiate its own trade agreements (Buchanan, 2016). After Brexit, the full control of Value Added Tax (VAT) will return to the Treasury, and the European commission has begun to return the control of interest rate setting and other aspects to the member states; The fashion industry would benefit greatly from VAT controls (Dawood, 2016). Besides, only 3% of Britain's research and development funding comes from the EU, and some of the EU membership fees saved after Brexit could be used for British research activities (BBC news, 2016). 6.3. Due to the depreciation of sterling, the international business has brought profits to the British retail industry. British accessories designer Anya Hindmarch said, “we found it all positive. The pound has gone down, our turnover has gone up, and our suppliers in Italy have told us that they will continue to work with us and want to keep trade flowing (Hoang, 2017)”. Moreover, the depreciation of the pound is particularly good for investors who want to buy creative industries companies or brands in the UK; The UK has gone to great lengths to encourage bilateral agreements between China and the UK, at the Shanghai expo, British and Chinese cultural and creative enterprises signed eight agreements worth around 40 million pounds (Department for international trade and British consulategeneral Shanghai, 2018). 6.4. Create UK's own fashion direction, focus on "made in Britain". Professor Frances Corner expressed a positive view on Brexit. He said, Brexit gives the UK a chance to reask itself what kind of fashion and manufacturing future we want (Tobin, 2019). Also, according to The International Trade Secretary, Liam Fox, “Brexit can spur the return of ‘Made in Britain’”. At a dazzling white workshop in Zone 2, Jenny Holloway, who operates “Fashion Enter”, it has 107 tailors, cutters and designers making clothes for Marks & Spencer, Asos, Matthew Williamson and Preen, among others. After the referendum, Tesco and Arcadia also wanted her to work with them (Tobin, 2019). 7. Discussion of Brexit’s Pros & Cons in UK fashion The depreciation of sterling, bilateral tariff aggravation, an increase in the rate of inflation, the reduction of the EU supply chain and the tightening of visa have all led to a severe blow to the British fashion industry. Some small and mediumsized fashion companies could be damaged. But Brexit has two sides. Out of the constraints of the EU, Britain can have more cooperation with
nonEU countries. In the future, the multicultural integration of the UK also gives hope to the fashion industry that UK fashion may have a unique "made in Britain" style. 8. Conclusion On the whole, Brexit puts the British fashion industry in a position that is not conducive to competition with other EU countries (Biondi, 2019), and will cause great turbulence and depression to the British fashion industry for a period of time. However, the longterm development of the British fashion industry depends on the way of Brexit and the policies and actions after Brexit. The only certainty from the referendum so far is all the uncertainty, no one knows how Alexander Johnson will lead Brexit in the end, time will tell.
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