Net Zero Ambitions BY BRYAN HELFENBAUM, ALBERTA INNOVATES
The Net Zero emissions movement continues to gather momentum.
Solvents and Hydrogen
Pledges to achieve Net Zero have surpassed 70% of all global emissions, despite fossil fuels still supplying 84% of energy demand. The Canadian government has committed to achieving Net Zero by 2050, and five oil sands producers who represent 90% of total bitumen production have committed to the same.
Upstream oilsands emissions can be significantly reduced through solvents to replace aqueous extraction, both for In Situ and Mining. Piloting has been completed or is underway across a wide range of solvent types/concentrations/timing, as well as the addition or replacement by electromagnetic radiation. These technologies have other environmental benefits, including minimizing water usage and reducing land footprint. Steam additives represent a different mechanism but have potential to reduce steam/oil ratios by 5-20%.
THREAT OR OPPORTUNITY FOR THE HEAVY OIL AND OIL SANDS INDUSTRY? The Overall Trajectory is Clear … While it is fair to be skeptical of the speed and likelihood of achieving global or even national Net Zero, the overall trajectory is clear. The diminishing demand forecast for hydrocarbon-based transportation fuels, the global investments in hydrogen, the growing movement in circular plastics, and other global trends lead to a flattening and eventual decrease in global oil demand. Supply cost, carbon pricing, consumer behavior, and diversification will determine the suppliers who will prevail.
The potential for a hydrogen economy seems to be fashionable every 20 years, but this time there is sufficient capital, technology, and global government support that it appears likely to succeed at a material scale. Blue Hydrogen (Steam Methane Reforming plus CCS) represents a tremendous production opportunity for domestic use and exports; a node is in full development in the Greater Edmonton region, with many inter-related projects. Burning hydrogen in oil sands facilities, as a full or partial replacement to natural gas, could represent a significant opportunity to reduce emissions.
Achieving Net Zero, in any timeframe, will require significant outcomes in technology development and deployment. But the ramifications extend far beyond just technology – there are political, behavioral, market, and other influences and impacts to consider. Also, while the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels has garnered overwhelming attention, there are significant challenges relating to industrial, manufacturing, and building emissions that need to be addressed in parallel. However, this article will focus on challenges and opportunities in Canadian oil and gas.
“... there is no credible Net Zero scenario that doesn’t include CCS.” CCUS: A Potential Advantage for Alberta The most significant opportunity lies in carbon capture and storage (CCS); there is no credible Net Zero scenario that doesn’t include CCS. Alberta and Canada are fortunately very well positioned to deploy largescale CCS due to subsurface pore space, existing infrastructure, and local expertise. Key assets are already operational and can form the backbone of the opportunity – large-scale capture facilities at Quest and Boundary, transportation in the Alberta Carbon Trunk Line, CO2 injection at Clive and Weyburn, and R&D facilities at the Alberta Carbon Conversion Technology Centre and the Carbon Capture & Conversion Institute. These assets and operational expertise enable further expansion and position Canada as a global leader in CCS. Conversion and utilization will play a role, and could foster significant business opportunities, but large-scale storage will be crucial to achieving Net Zero.
WILL ONE OF YOUR IMAGES SPEAK A “KILOWORDS”? CHOA is asking you to submit your photos and graphics. We’ll work with you to publish submissions that can integrate well into our CHOA publications. We’ll acknowledge contributions we use. We’ll tell great stories together. Contact us now at OFFICE@CHOA.AB.CA
CONNECT. SHARE. LEARN. LEAD
