ASPEN
| SNOWMASS
ASPEN & SNOWMASS FIRST QUARTER 2021 MARKET REPORT Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Aspen Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Nationally
By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
Despite early predictions of a soft first quarter, economic forecasts have steadily improved and 21Q1 GDP growth is likely to exceed 6%! With the combination of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, improving vaccination rates, substantial pent-up demand from the last year, and sizable amounts of forced savings in the trillions, there is every reason to expect growth of over 8% in 21Q2 and 21Q3. By 21Q4, we will likely see growth slow to a still remarkable 7% as we begin to slowly return to normal trend growth by the end of 2022 or early 2023. As for the stock market, with low interest rates likely to prevail for some time and corporate earnings growth expected to be solid in 2021, the stock market, as measured by the broadly diversified S&P 500, should have a good year. While the Federal Reserve has revised their 2021 forecasts for inflation, GDP, and unemployment, they have barely modified their 2022/23 forecasts. This means the Fed very much thinks the latest stimulus monies will lead to a short-term boost to the economy but nothing more. They are essentially looking through this short-term growth and any corresponding inflationary effects. As such, they remain strongly wedded to their existing inflation-fighting plans and do not anticipate raising short term rates before 2023 and are unlikely to commence their tapering of $80 billion/month in Treasuries and $40 billion/month in mortgage-backed securities before the start of 2022. While consumer spending data in February was disappointing due to the combination of unusually harsh weather, the gap between stimulus packages, and payback for very strong growth in prior months, consumer spending will undoubtedly improve in March. Relatedly, job growth is clearly turning the corner. After a slight decline in employment in December, job creation has steadily improved and topped 900,000 in March, and over the rest of this year, the economy should easily create between 500,000 and a million new jobs a month. Despite this unusually strong employment growth, the unemployment rate will be hard pressed to decline by more than one percentage point as more people will be drawn to the increasingly vibrant job market. As a result, it will be important to focus more on job creation rather than the slowly declining monthly unemployment rate. The housing sector continues to look good and construction activity will likely rise by a modest 5-6% pace over 2020 given the many capacity constraints (labor and input prices).
“By 21Q4, we will likely see growth slow to a remarkable 7% as we begin to slowly return to normal trend growth by the end of 2022 or early 2023.”
Legislatively, the long-awaited-for “hard” infrastructure bill is now moving to center stage and will shortly be accompanied by a “soft” infrastructure bill. Despite bipartisan agreement on the need for improvements to the nation’s “hard” infrastructure including highways, bridges, broadband, and infrastructure, these bills will be narrowly passed along strictly partisan lines due to disagreements about the size of the bills and how to pay for them. The passage must occur prior to Thanksgiving, and unlike the several stimulus packages, this legislative effort will boost economic activity over an extended period of between five and eight years.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Colorado
In Colorado, the statewide unemployment rate was 6.6% as of 02/2021 (compared to the pre-pandemic rate of 2.8%). Statewide continuing claims for unemployment hit a high of 265,499 for the week ended 5/16/20, (compared to a pre-pandemic level 21,956) and are now at 82,157 for the week ended 03/27/21. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (for self-employed and gig workers) hit a high of 104,713 for the week ended 4/18/20, have generally declined since, and are at 50,535 for the week ending 3/13/21. With increasing vaccination rates and improvements in the wider national economy, unemployment numbers should continue to improve.
“For the first quarter of 2021, closed sales across the state are up 8.9%, while active listings of inventory statewide are at a staggeringly low...”
Statewide, the March 2021 median price of a single-family home rose to $485,000, a 14.4% gain over March 2020, while the median sales price of a townhome or condo rose to $362,500, a 9.8% gain over last March. For the first quarter of 2021, closed sales across the state are up 8.9%, while active listings of inventory statewide are at a staggeringly low 6,732, a nearly 70% decline over the same period as last year and represents just 0.6 month’s supply of inventory.
Aspen and Snowmass Village In the Aspen/Snowmass Village real estate market, there is a clear preference among first-quarter buyers for single-family homes over townhomes and condos. While single-family prices, both median and average, rose in Aspen and in Snowmass Village, prices for condos and townhomes in Aspen declined significantly, albeit partly due to a decline in the size of the average unit, and multi-family prices in Snowmass Village were nearly unchanged from last year. However, demand, as measured by percent-of-sold-price-to-original-list price and days on market shows no signs of slowing. This is consistent with national trends, as buyers in the post-pandemic market look for larger living spaces and a bit more distance from neighbors. Despite the pandemic, the Aspen/Snowmass area had a better-than-expected ski season, and as many events and activities return this summer, residents and businesses are poised for a return to normal living. With inventory levels at about half of what they were at this point last year and no signs of decreasing demand, the forecast is for a robust summer and fall real estate market.
ASPEN
Single Family Homes The median price for single family homes in Aspen for the first quarter of 2021 rose to a spectacular all-time high of $9.5 million, up 27% over 20Q1. Average sale prices jumped by 5% to $10.5 million. The number of sales rose to 26 (from 10 last year), and overall sales volume rose 174% to $273.6 million dollars. Average sold price per square foot jumped from $1,522 in early 2020 to $1,940 in the first quarter of this year. On March 31, 2021 there were 80 single-family units on the market, compared to 135 at the same point last year. The most expensive single-family home sold in Aspen in January-March was for $27.4 million, virtually unchanged from last year. Average days on market rose slightly to 309 from 291 while percent of sold price to original listing price spiked up 11% to 94%.
Median Sold Price $10
$7.52M
Millions
$8 $6
$4.49M
$9.54M
$5.70M $6.00M
27%
2020 vs 2021
$4 $2 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
Average Sold Price
2021 $12
First Quarter YTD of
2020 vs 2021
$10
Millions
5%
$9.98M $10.52M
$8 $6
$6.30M
$7.46M $7.12M
$4 $2
Total Dollar Volume
Millions
$200
$150M $94M
$104M
2020 vs 2021
$100M
$50
0
2017
2018
2019
First Quarter YTD of
2020
2021
2018
2019
2020
First Quarter YTD of
174%
$250
$100
2017
$274M
$300
$150
0
2021
Average Price Per SQFT $1,940
$2,000 $1,500
$1,456
$1,455
$1,281
$1,522
27%
$1,000
2020 vs 2021
$500
0
2017
2018
2020
2019
2021
First Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
11%
2020 vs 2021
90%
91%
90%
85%
94%
2017
2018
2019 First Quarter YTD of
2020
2021
Average Days on Market 378 2017
277 2018
301 2019 First Quarter YTD of
291 2020
6%
309
2020 vs 2021
2021
Number of Properties Sold
160%
2020 vs 2021
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
15
14
21
10
26
2017
2018
2020
2021
2019 First Quarter YTD of
AS GOOD AS IT GETS
Aspen, Colorado
7 BEDROOMS | 7 FULL, 2 HALF BATHROOMS | 20,740 SQFT
WEST END OPPORTUNITY
Aspen, Colorado
7 BEDROOMS | 5 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 3,506 SQFT | 12,000 SQFT LOT
ASPEN
Condos and Townhomes Townhome and condo prices in Aspen slid significantly with median sale prices declining 37% to $2.1 million while the average price fell by an even larger 48% to $2.7 million. The number of properties sold nearly doubled to 48. Sales volume was virtually unchanged at $130 million, while average price per square foot fell 16% to $1,786. Condo/townhome inventories declined meaningfully compared to last year, with just 80 units for sale at the end of March, compared to 113 last year. In the Aspen condo/townhome market, the most expensive home sold so far this year was for $12 million compared to $13.4 million at this point last year. Average days on market for condos/townhomes declined precipitously from 405 to 190 and percent of sold price to original list price improved from 92% to 96%.
Median Sold Price $3.29M
$3.5 $3.0
Millions
$2.0 $1.5
$2.06M
$2.28M $2.39M
$2.5
$1.55M
37%
2020 vs 2021
$1.0 $0.5
0.0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
$6
First Quarter YTD of
Total Dollar Volume
Millions
$3 $2
$112M
$1
0
2017
2020 vs 2021
$60 $30 2017
2018
2019
First Quarter YTD of
2020
2021
2018
2019
First Quarter YTD of
1%
$78M
$67M
$2.71M
$2.60M
$2.15M
$131M $130M
$120
0
$3.61M
$4
Millions
2020 vs 2021
$90
$5.24M
$5
48%
$150
Average Sold Price
2020
2021
Average Price Per SQFT $2,500
$2,126
$2,000 $1,500
$1,274
$1,406
$1,786
$1,597
$1,000
2020 vs 2021
$500
0
16%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
First Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
4% 2020 vs 2021
96%
94%
95%
92%
96%
2017
2018
2019 First Quarter YTD of
2020
2021
Average Days on Market 235 2017
361 2018
214
405
2019
2020
53%
190
2020 vs 2021
2021
First Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
92%
2020 vs 2021
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
31
31
30
25
48
2017
2018
2020
2021
2019 First Quarter YTD of
PERFECT LITTLE SKI ABODE
Aspen, Colorado
3 BEDROOMS | 2 BATHROOMS | 990 SQFT
MONARCH ON THE PARK
Aspen, Colorado
3 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 3,429 SQFT
SNOWMASS VILLAGE
Single Family Homes
In Snowmass Village, median sale prices of single-family homes surged to $3.6 million, an 87% improvement over last Q1. Average prices also skyrocketed from $2.8 million last year to $4.5 million this past quarter. Price per square foot rose by 60% from $700 to $1,123. Closed sales doubled from 5 to 11 and dollar volume rose to a spectacular $49.8 million compared to just $13.9 million last year. Active inventories of single-family homes in Snowmass Village declined by a staggering 70% to just 21 available listings. The most expensive single-family home sold this past quarter in Snowmass Village sold for just over $8.5 million. By comparison, the most expensive single-family home sold during 20Q1 was for $7.1 million. Average days on market for single-family homes in Snowmass Village plummeted from 443 in 2020 to 284 in 2021 and percent sold price to original list price rose from 92% in 2020 to 95% in 2021.
Median Sold Price $4.74M
$5
$3.56M
Millions
$4 $3 $2
$1.70M
$2.21M
$1.90M
87%
2020 vs 2021
$1
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
Average Sold Price
2021
$8
First Quarter YTD of
2020 vs 2021
Total Dollar Volume $50
$50M
$44M
Millions
$28M
$25M
$20
2017
2018
$4 $3
$3.09M
2019
2020
First Quarter YTD of
2021
$2.78M
$2.54M
$2 $1
0
2017
2020 vs 2020
$14M
$10
0
$4.52M
$5
259%
$40 $30
$6
Millions
63%
$6.27M
$7
2018
2019
2020
First Quarter YTD of
2021
Average Price Per SQFT $1,175
$1,200
$1,123
$1,000 $800
$708
60%
$700
$658
$600
2020 vs 2021
$400 $200
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
First Quarter YTD of
2021
% Sold Price to Original List Price
3%
2020 vs 2021
91%
94%
96%
92%
95%
2017
2018
2019 First Quarter YTD of
2020
2021
Average Days on Market 318
422 2017
2018
175
443
2019 First Quarter YTD of
2020
36%
284
2020 vs 2021
2021
Number of Properties Sold
120%
2020 vs 2021
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
9
10
7
5
11
2017
2018
2020
2021
2019 First Quarter YTD of
CONTEMPORARY HORSE RANCH ESTATE
Snowmass Village, Colorado
5 BEDROOMS | 5 FULL, 2 HALF BATHROOMS | 6,236 SQFT
PINE CREST SKI-IN, SKI-OUT
Snowmass Village, Colorado
5 BEDROOMS | 6 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 5,500 SQFT
SNOWMASS VILLAGE
Condos and Townhomes
Condo/townhome prices in Snowmass Village were virtually unchanged, with median prices of $860,000 and an average sale price of $1.4 million. There was a healthy increase in the number of sales this quarter, rising from 41 last year to 59 this past quarter. Sales volume increased 43% to $80.5 million and average price per square foot went up 8.4% to $900. At the end of March there were just 48 units on the market, compared to 124 last year. In the condo/townhome market, the most expensive property sold for $4.7 million, down from $5.3 million for the comparable period last year. Average days on market for condos/townhomes in Snowmass Village declined from 336 in 2020 to 160 in 2021, while the percent of sold price to original list price rose from 94% last year to 97% this past quarter.
Median Sold Price $1,000 $800
$875K $860K $725K
$698K
2%
$600
$360K
$400
2020 vs 2021
$200
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
First Quarter YTD of
2020 vs 2021
Total Dollar Volume $81M
Millions
$80
$56M
$60 $40 $20
0
$23M
2017
$15M 2018
$1.2M
2020
First Quarter YTD of
2021
$1.14M
$1.03M
$900K $600K
$437K
$300K
0
2017
43%
2020 vs 2021
$28M
2019
$1.38M $1.36M
$1.5M
1%
$100
Average Sold Price
2021
2018
2019
2020
First Quarter YTD of
2021
Average Price Per SQFT $1,000 $800 $600
$805 $615
$865
$900
4%
$607
2020 vs 2021
$400 $200
0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
First Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
3%
2020 vs 2021
95%
96%
97%
94%
97%
2017
2018
2019 First Quarter YTD of
2020
2021
Average Days on Market
280 2017
126 2018
336
223 2019 First Quarter YTD of
2020
52%
160
2020 vs 2021
2021
Number of Properties Sold
11%
2020 vs 2021
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
22
35
25
41
59
2017
2018
2020
2021
2019 First Quarter YTD of
CONTEMPORARY CHAMONIX
Snowmass Village, Colorado 2 BEDROOMS | 2 BATHROOMS | 1,156 SQFT
CAPITOL PEAK LODGE
Snowmass Village, Colorado 1 BEDROOM | 1 BATHROOM | 700 SQFT
LIFESTYLE. LUXURY. LEGACY. 520 E Durant Ave Suite 205, Aspen • 970.544.5800 Properties@ChristiesAspenRE.com • ChristiesAspenRE.com