ASPEN
| SNOWMASS
ASPEN & SNOWMASS FIRST QUARTER 2022 MARKET REPORT Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Aspen Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Nationally
By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
The story of 22Q1 is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Along with the horrific humanitarian situation, there are significant negative impacts on US and global growth and markets. Making things worse, inflation, already troublingly high, has increased due to the Russian aggression for several reasons. First, energy prices rose dramatically because Russia is a large producer of oil, natural gas, and coal; in fact, it is one of the top three global exporters of all three fossil fuels. There is a direct supply impact from the war itself and additional effects from supply line disruptions and sanctions. This translates into uncertainty around availability and rising futures prices, which feeds immediately into inflation. Secondly, Russia and Ukraine are large exporters of cereals and industrial metals, which causes prices of those commodities to rise, and along with sanctions, has impacted supply chains. The one-two punch of omicron in the first part of the quarter and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February/March has meaningfully damaged GDP growth in the just concluded first quarter of 2022, and we’ll be lucky to see a 1% gain, well down from what was initially expected. In response to the inflationary pressures on the economy, the Fed is likely to raise rates at all six remaining interest rate-setting meetings this year. Further, the FOMC is strongly hinting at several rate hikes of 50 basis points/half a percentage point instead of the usual 25 basis points/ quarter point bumps to catch up to the inflationary curve. Moreover, the Fed has recently signaled an intent to reduce the size of their balance sheet more rapidly in another effort to dampen inflation. These contractionary policies are largely already baked into the cake, so to speak, and are thus not likely to push mortgage rates much higher than they already are.
risk of a recession is increased, and rate-raising cycles generally end in recession. This particular rate-raising cycle will be big and therefore the risk is higher. Further, sometimes simply the fear of the Fed raising rates too much or too quickly may be enough to cause a recession. With this in mind, the likelihood of a recession in the next 12-18 months is about 30-35%. In the housing market, inventory will stay scarce. Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, housing inventory had already been shrinking for well over a decade, from a peak of slightly more than 4.0 million units at the end of July 2007 to just 1.5 million at the end of February 2020. Then Covid-19 came and pushed inventory much lower, to just 860,000 units. While inventory is now rising, as is typical in the spring, year-over-year changes in inventory remain negative, and it will continue to be a sellers’ market. While price appreciation in 2021 was torrid, with national prices rising close to 20%, price appreciation will slow in 2022 for three key reasons. First, with mortgage rates higher, some buyers will inevitably get priced out, reducing demand. Second, builders are likely to complete somewhat more houses in 2022 than in 2021, and in the process, boost supply somewhat. Lastly, for much of 2021 inflation was lower, so inflation-adjusted price appreciation was just slightly below nominal price appreciation. However, with inflation already running hot at over 8% in the early months of 2022, even if prices rise by 15% in 2022, real price appreciation will be much reduced.
Finally, as they have for several years now, first-time buyers will continue to struggle in the current housing market. This is partly because of rising prices and interest rates, but also because Boomers are staying in their homes One area to monitor closely is the yield curve, which longer as they increasingly prefer to age-in-place and is becoming of concern to financial markets as it because they are living longer than earlier generations. flirts with a mild inversion, where, for example, the In addition, builders are no longer constructing as yield on the two-year Treasury is above the ten-year many entry-level homes as the cost of land, materiTreasury. The reason for concern is that the last six als and labor conspire to make it all but impossible. or seven times this happened, a recession followed. Add to that the large savings hoard that was accumuThat said, which pairs of Treasuries should be comlated during the worst of Covid-19, the fact that forpared is hotly debated, and the timing of when the reeigners are once again traveling to the US and looking cession arrives after the inversion occurs ranges from to buy, and that Wall Street is also buying new and seven to 33 months, and this time, of course, could existing single-family homes to rent, and the percentconceivably be different. Still, because the Fed needs age of cash buyers has probably never been higher. to raise rates so much to throttle back inflation, the
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Colorado
Unemployment in Colorado is at 4.0% as of 02/2022 after hitting a peak of 11.8% in May 2020 (for comparison, the pre-pandemic rate was 2.8%). Statewide continuing claims for unemployment hit a high of 265,499 for the week ended 5/16/20 (compared to a pre-pandemic level of 21,956) and are now at 18,559 for the week ended 04/02/22. In fact, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that employment in Colorado now exceeds pre-covid levels. In Pitkin County, the February unemployment rate is 3.5% and continues to steadily decline when seasonality is factored in (May and November).
family home of $575,000 was 18.6% higher than March 2021, while the average price of $719,381 was 17.1% more. In the condo/townhome market, the median price gained 16.3% to $420,000, while the average price rose 13.0% to $547,416. Through March 2022, closed sales across the state are down 9.6%, while new listings declined 6.2% compared to 2021. The 6,901 active listings of inventory statewide at the end of March are about one-third less than last March and represent a 0.6-month supply of inventory, well below the national average of 1.7 months. Across the state, the percentage of list price received at sale is 104.2%, and days-on-market is just 26 Statewide, the March 2022 median price of a single- days, down from 37 days at the end of March 2021.
Aspen and Snowmass Village In somewhat surprising news, the median sale price of a single-family home in Aspen during the first quarter of 2022 exceeded the $15 million mark, a 61% gain over 21Q1, after just surpassing $10 million in 21Q4.
stands ready to move past the Covid funk of the last several years. Buyers may have come to the Aspen area for social distancing during the early months of the pandemic, but as they experienced the variety of seasons, activities and events in the communiTownhome and condo prices in Aspen were up 39% ty and surrounding recreational areas, they stayed. compared to last year with a median sale price of nearly $2.9 million. Price appreciation, by percent- The work-from-home shift allowed people to stay age, was even more spectacular in Snowmass Vil- connected with jobs in tech, finance, and other inlage during 22Q1, where the median price for a dustries and now, as the economy rebounds, buysingle-family home of nearly $6.5 million was 83% ers are even more anxious to invest in real estate. higher than 21Q1 and the median price of townho- While home prices are appreciating across the mes and condos in Snowmass Village nearly dou- country, the Aspen/Snowmass Village area bled to an astonishing $1.7 million. Through March, stands out as one of the top performers, and unthere were 87 residential properties sold throughout like many other areas, rising interest rates are not the Aspen/Snowmass Village area, a decline of 40% likely to slow the largely cash sales and investcompared to last year that is almost certainly due to ment purchases that predominate the Aspen mara lack of inventory, but rising prices pushed over- ket. It may be that buyers are pulling assets out all sales volume up to $620 million, 15% more than of the stock market and other investments to pur21Q1. At the end of March, there were just 48 sin- chase homes in Aspen and Snowmass Village to gle-family homes on the market throughout the en- diversify their portfolio, but inventories are very tire Aspen/Snowmass Village area and just 39 town- tight, and there is no short-term relief in sight. homes and condos, down 70% from March 2021. For the lucky buyer who finds the home of their It’s clear that high-end real estate buyers have fallen dreams, Aspen or Snowmass Village can be a lifein love with the Aspen/Snowmass Village area and time investment. have no intention of leaving, even as the country
ASPEN
Single Family Homes The median price for single family homes in Aspen through March 2022 rose to just over $15.2 million, up a staggering 61% over the same period in 2021 and easily an all-time high. The average sale price of $18.3 million was an 80% increase over the price from 21Q1.
As of the end of March, there were just 39 single-family homes on the market, compared to 87 at the same point last year, a 55% decline. The most expensive single-family home sold in Aspen during the first quarter of 2022 was for $50 million, compared to $27.4 million in 21Q1.
The number of closed sales declined by about a third to 18 but with record prices, overall dollar volume increased by 20% to $329.6 million. The average sold price per square foot rose from $1,924 in 21Q1 to $3,258 in 2022.
Days on market fell from 300 to 148, while percent of sold price to original listing price rose from 94% last year to 96% this year.
Median Sold Price
61%
$20
$15.2M
Million
$15 $10
$5.7M
$6M
$7.5M
$9.5M
2021 vs 2022
$5 $0
Average Sold Price 2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
$20
80%
$15
2021 vs 2022
Total Dollar Volume
$10 $7.46M $7.12M
$0
2018
$200 $150 $104M
$150M $100M
$100
2021 vs 2022
$50 2018
2019
2020
First Quarter YTD of
2021
2022
2019
2020
2021
First Quarter YTD of
20%
$250
$9.98M $10.19M
$5
$275M
$300
Million
$18.31M
$330M
$350
$0
Million
First Quarter YTD of
2022
Average Price Per Square Foot $3,258
$3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500
69%
$1,924 $1,455
$1,281
$1,522
2021 vs 2022
$1,000 $500 $0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
First Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
2%
2021 vs 2022
91%
90%
85%
94%
96%
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
First Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market 277 2018
301
291
2019
2020
300 2021
51%
148
2021 vs 2022
2022
First Quarter YTD of
33%
2021 vs 2022
Number of Properties Sold SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
14
21
10
27
18
2018
2019
2021
2022
2020 First Quarter YTD of
AS GOOD AS IT GETS
Aspen, Colorado
7 BEDROOMS | 7 FULL, 2 HALF BATHROOMS | 20,740 SF
RED MOUNTAIN RANCH
Aspen, Colorado
5 BEDROOMS | 5 BATHROOMS | 4,920 SF
ASPEN
Condos and Townhomes Townhome and condominium prices in Aspen were up nearly 40% over 21Q1, with the median sale price rising to $2.9 million while the average price was up 65% to $4.5 million. The number of properties sold decreased from 48 in 21Q1 to 36 in 22Q1. Sales volume of $161 million was up from $130 million last year, a 24% increase, while the average price per square foot rose 53% to $2,735.
Condo and townhome inventories were down 76% compared to last March with just 21 units on the market. In the Aspen condo/townhome market, the most expensive unit sold in 22Q1 was for $20 million, compared to the $12 million record in 21Q1. Days on market for condos/townhomes declined from 190 to 88 and percent of sold price to original list price increased from 96% to 98%.
Median Sold Price $3.29M
$3.5 $3
Million
$2.5
39%
$2.87M $2.28M $2.39M
$2.06M
$2
2021 vs 2022
$1.5 $1
Average Sold Price
$.5 $0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
$6
First Quarter YTD of
2021 vs 2022
Total Dollar Volume $200
Million
$150
$4
$3.61M
$2 $1 $0
2018
$78M
2021 vs 2022
$50
2018
2019
2020
First Quarter YTD of
2021
2022
2019
2020
2021
First Quarter YTD of
24%
$131M $130M
$112M
$2.71M
$2.60M
$3
$161M
$100
$0
$4.48M
$5
Million
65%
$5.24M
2022
Average Price Per Square Foot $2,735
$3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500
53%
$2,126 $1,786
$1,597
$1,406
2021 vs 2022
$1,000 $500 $0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
First Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
2% 2021 vs 2022
94%
95%
92%
96%
98%
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
First Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market
361 2018
214 2019
405
190
2020
2021
88 2022
54%
2021 vs 2022
First Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
25%
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
31
30
25
48
36
2018
2019
2021
2022
2021 vs 2022 2020 First Quarter YTD of
ASPEN CHATELET CONDO
Aspen, Colorado
3 BEDROOMS | 2 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 1,431 SF
CONTEMPORARY SIERRA VISTA
Aspen, Colorado
4 BEDROOMS | 4 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 3,453 SF
SNOWMASS VILLAGE
Single Family Homes
In Snowmass Village, the median sale price of a single-family home sold in the first quarter of 2022 gained 83% and rose to $6.5 million. Average price rose by 73% to nearly $7.8 million. Average price per square foot increased by 43% to $1,604. Closed sales declined by 18% to 9 and dollar volume increased by 42% to $70.5 million.
The most expensive single-family home sold in 22Q1 in Snowmass Village was for $14.6 million, while in 2021 the highest first quarter price was $8.5 million. Days on market for single-family homes in Snowmass Village declined from 284 days last year to 169 days in 22Q1. The percent of sold price to original list price stayed steady at 95%.
There are just 9 single-family homes for sale in Snowmass Village at the end of March, down from 25 a year ago.
Median Sold Price $8
$6.50M
$7
Million
$6
83%
$4.74M
$5
$3.56M
$4
$2.37M
$3 $2.21M
2021 vs 2022
$2
Average Sold Price
$1 $0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2021 vs 2022
Total Dollar Volume $71M
$70
Million
$60 $40 $30
$23M
$20
2018
2019
2020
$4.52M
$5 $4 $3
$3.78M $2.60M
$2 $1 $0
2018
2021
First Quarter YTD of
2022
2019
2020
2021
First Quarter YTD of
2021 vs 2022
$11M
$10 $0
$6
42%
$50M
$44M
$50
$6.27M
$7
Million
73%
$80
$7.84M
$8
First Quarter YTD of
2022
Average Price Per Square Foot $2,000
$1,604
$1,500 $1,000
$1,175
43%
$1,123 $913
$680
2021 vs 2022
$500 $0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
First Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
0% 2021 vs 2022
95%
96%
94%
95%
95%
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
First Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market
175
329 2018
2019
251
284
2020
2021
169 2022
40%
2021 vs 2022
First Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
18%
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
9
7
3
11
9
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2021 vs 2022
First Quarter YTD of
LUXURY IN THE PINES
Snowmass Village, Colorado
LUXURY RENTAL 5 BEDROOMS | 5 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 5,459 SF
EDGEWOOD PRIVACY
Snowmass Village, Colorado
LUXURY RENTAL 4 BEDROOMS | 5 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 4,893 SF
SNOWMASS VILLAGE
Condos and Townhomes
Condo and townhome prices in Snowmass Village nearly doubled when compared to last year, with a median price of $1.7 million, while the average price rose by 59% to nearly $2.2 million. Closed sales decreased from 61 to 27, and sales volume declined by 30% to just more than $58 million. Average price per square foot rose from $898 to $1,399. At the end of March there were just 18 townhome or condo units on the market in Snowmass Village, compared to 92 last March.
In the Snowmass Village condo/townhome market, the most expensive property sold for $6.6 million, compared to last year’s Q1 high of $4.7 million. Days on market for condos/townhomes in Snowmass Village declined from 159 in 21Q1 to 68 in 22Q1, while the percent of sold price to original list price surged from 97% at the end of March 2021 to 101% at the end of March 2022.
Hundred Thousand
Median Sold Price $2,000
$1.69M
97%
$1,500 $1,000 $500 $0
$698K
$875K $860K
2021 vs 2022
$360K
2018
2019
2020
2021
Average Sold Price
2022
First Quarter YTD of
$2.5M
59%
2021 vs 2022
Total Dollar Volume $100
Million
$58M
$56M
$60 $40
$0
$2.0M $1.5M
$1.11M
$28M
$500K $0
$437K
2018
2018
2019
2020
2021
First Quarter YTD of
2022
2019
2020
2021
First Quarter YTD of
30%
2021 vs 2022
$15M
$1.38M $1.36M
$1.0M
$83M
$80
$20
$2.16M
2022
Average Price Per Square Foot $1,399
$1,500 $1,200 $900
$805
$865
56%
$898
$607
$600
2021 vs 2022
$300 $0
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
First Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
4%
2021 vs 2022
96%
97%
94%
97%
101%
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
First Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market
126 2018
223 2019
336
159
2020
2021
68 2022
57% 2021 vs 2022
First Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
56%
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
35
25
41
61
27
2018
2019
2021
2022
2021 vs 2022 2020 First Quarter YTD of
Our First Quarter Top Sales
Maroon Court
$25,500,000
6 BD | 8 BA | 7,700 SF 142 MAROON DRIVE, ASPEN
2
#
Five Trees
$19,125,000
Main Street
$15,300,000
MIXED USE | 8,187 SF 426 E MAIN STREET, ASPEN
1
#
5 BD | 9 BA | 8,983 SF 170 FALCON ROAD, ASPEN
3
#
Our Property Collection
As Good As It Gets
$75,000,000
7 BD | 9 BA | 20,740 SF | ASPEN CORE 1001 UTE AVE., ASPEN
Brush Creek Ranch
$29,000,000
6 BD | 6 BA | 3,616 SF | 102+ ACRE RANCH 660 BRUSH CREEK ROAD, SNOWMASS VILLAGE
Red Mountain Ranch
$22,000,000
5 BD | 5 BA | 3 CAR GARAGE 804 HUNTER CREEK ROAD, ASPEN
Secluded Riverfront Estate
$20,000,000 LUXURIOUS LIVING
6 BD | 9 BA | 10,198 SF | 6 AC 100 WOODY CREEK LN., WOODY CREEK
Lake Springs Ranch and Lodge
$14,250,000 DEV OPPORTUNITY
8 BD | 6 BA | 6,597 SF | 275 ACRES 4001 & TBD COUNTY ROAD 114, GWS
Mountains of Opportunity
Majestic Maroon Court
$15,250,000 NEW CONSTRUCTION
5 BD | 8 BA | 5,066 SF 30 MAROON COURT, ASPEN 660
Lake Springs Ranch Acreage
$10,950,000 APPROVALS IN PLACE
205 ACRES | APPROVALS FOR 84 SFH TBD COUNTY ROAD 114, GWS
Stunning Aspen Remodel
$8,300,000 LUXURIOUS RETREAT
$8,250,000 PRIVATE CUL-DE-SAC
2 BD | 1 BA | 999 SF + 36.4 ACRES
4 BD | 5 BA | 3,453 SF 1470 SIERRA VISTA DRIVE B, ASPEN
4300 MIDNIGHT MINE RD., ASPEN
Mountain Valley Aspen
$7,499,000 ON A 20,000 SF LOT
5 BD | 3 BA | 3,138 SF 154 LUPINE DRIVE, ASPEN
Buttermilk Homesite
$6,800,000 BUILD A DREAM HOME
4.2 ACRE LOT NEXT TO BUTTERMILK 240 BUTTERMILK LANE, ASPEN 660
Under Contract
Top of the World Views
$5,500,000 FRESHLY REMODELED
3 BD | 4 BA | 3,439 SF 91 SOLAR WAY, ASPEN
Lake Springs Lodge
Aspen Core Condominium
$3,995,000 WALK TO EVERYTHING
3 BD | 3 BA | 1,431 SF 250 S ORIGINAL STREET A, ASPEN
Private Callicotte Ranch
$3,950,000 SPECTACULAR VIEWS
$3,850,000 NEW CONSTRUCTION
8 BD | 6 BA | 6,597 SF | 70 ACRES 4001 COUNTY ROAD 114, GWS
4 BD | 4 BA | 4,000 SF 0103 COUNTY ROAD, CARBONDALE
Missouri Heights Estate
$3,500,000 MOUNT SOPRIS VIEWS
5 BD | 6 BA | 5,719 SF
1230 GREEN MEADOW DR., CARBONDALE
Shadowrock Luxury
$2,800,000 READY SPRING 2023
4 BD | 5 BA | 3,317 SF 450 OVERLOOK RIDGE, BASALT
Spacious Holland Hills Home
$2,850,000 - MINUTES TO THE RFC
5 BD | 4 BA | 3,808 SF 682 HOLLAND HILLS RD, BASALT
Shadowrock Luxury
$2,800,000 READY SPRING 2023
4 BD | 5 BA | 3,317 SF 400 OVERLOOK RIDGE, BASALT
Downtown Aspen Office Space
$2,395,500 THE FIX - FOR SALE
1,226 SF | OBERMEYER PLACE 501 RIO GRANDE PL. #105, ASPEN 60
Mid Valley Living
$2,200,000 READY SPRING 2023
3 BD | 4 BA | 2,856 SF 244 OVERLOOK RIDGE, BASALT
Under Contract
Park Modern
$2,000,000 TOP FLOOR, CORNER UNIT
3 BD | 3 BA | 1,956 SF 202 EVANS ROAD 201, BASALT
Under Contract
Crestwood Condominium
$1,200,000 SKI ACCESS
2 BD | 2 BA | 928 SF 400 WOOD ROAD H-2311, SMV
Under Contract
Summit Vista
$1,050,000 CONVENIENT LOCATION
3 BD | 2 BA | 1,676 SF 207 SUMMIT DRIVE, CARBONDALE
Under Contract
Assay Hill Lodge
$789,000 SKI-IN/SKI-OUT STUDIO
STUDIO | 1 BA | 385 SF 130 WOOD ROAD #526, SMV
LIFESTYLE. LUXURY. LEGACY. 520 E Durant Ave Suite 205, Aspen • 970.544.5800 Properties@ChristiesAspenRE.com • ChristiesAspenRE.com