ASPEN
| SNOWMASS
ASPEN & SNOWMASS SECOND QUARTER 2021 MARKET REPORT Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Aspen Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Nationally
By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
2021Q2 GDP growth will most likely exceed 8%, and possibly even a mind-blowing 9%, encouraged by the residual effects of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, improving vaccination rates, steady if unspectacular improvement in job creation, high levels of savings, and a strong demand for dining out, travel and other services that were largely off-limits until recently. 2021Q3 GDP growth should weigh in at close to 8%, and 2021Q4 should close out the year at better than 6%. At worst, this year will experience the highest rate of growth since the recovery from the double-dip recession of the early 1980s, and at best, it could be the strongest since the very early 1950s! Regarding inflation, while it has certainly made its presence felt over the last few months by more than doubling from 2% to 5%, the Fed has been masterful in reassuring investors and markets that inflationary pressure is short-term and will subside over the next year. In addition, bond markets are beginning to factor in the realization that GDP growth in 2022 and 2023 will steadily slow and end up no greater than 2.25%. As a result, interest rates have remained pleasantly unchanged despite rising inflation. Next on the Fed’s agenda is tapering of their purchases of $80 billion/month in Treasuries and $40 billion/month in mortgage-backed securities, which should commence in 2022, with interest rate hikes starting in 2023. I suspect the 10-year Treasury rate will end 2021 up by a quarter-point. As the economy returns to a post-pandemic normal, spending patterns are undergoing change. To wit, real consumer spending in May fell 0.4% M-o-M. This decline was not across the board; real durable goods spending declined 4.3%, while real spending on non-durables eased 0.5%. In a preview of coming attractions, real spending on services, which is 60% of overall spending, rose 0.4%, showing a strong shift away from purchases of goods and towards services. This increased spending on services is being driven largely by households with incomes greater than $200,000, who boosted restaurant spending by 16%. And with savings rates 50% above pre-pandemic levels, there is clearly more gas in the tank. Add strong job creation the rest of the year of between 500,000 and 750,000 new jobs/month, and the unemployment rate should decline from the current 5.9% to 4.6%. As for housing, I expect both existing sales and housing starts to remain unchanged through the end of 2021.
“Fed has been masterful in reassuring investors and markets that inflationary pressure is short-term and will subside over the next year.”
Legislatively, the $300 billion, five-year Surface Transportation Investment Act of 2021 is working its way through Congress. Hope remains that a much larger bipartisan “hard” infrastructure bill, which will include spending on bridges, broadband, airports, and rail, among other things, totaling $1 trillion has the votes to also become law. Moreover, efforts are being made to pass a much larger “soft” infrastructure bill along strictly partisan lines. If passed, these proposals will clearly boost GDP growth some over the next five to eight years. Lastly, Congress must eventually vote to increase the debt ceiling, and ideally pass a budget before the new fiscal year starts on October 1, 2021. If a budget is not passed, Congress will do what it usually does and pass a Continuing Resolution to keep the government operating. Hopefully, there will be no stomach for any budget or debt ceiling antics.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Colorado
Unemployment in Colorado hit a peak of 12.1% in April 2020 and has since declined to 6.2% as of 05/2021, compared to the pre-pandemic rate of 2.8%. Statewide continuing claims for unemployment hit a high of 265,499 for the week ended 3/20/20, (compared to a pre-pandemic level of 21,956) and are now at 39,269 for the week ending 06/26/21. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims (for self-employed and gig workers) hit a high of 188,027 for the week ended 6/6/20, have generally declined since, and are at 23,860 for the week ending 6/19/21. In Pitkin County, May unemployment is now at a seasonally adjusted rate of 8.5% but is meaningfully down from November 2020, part of a continuing trend of improvement across the county, state, and region.
“This represents just 0.8 month’s supply of inventory. The percentage of list price received at sale is now at a premium of 104.1%...”
Statewide, the June 2021 median price of a single-family home rose to $530,000, a 24.4% gain over June 2020, while the median sale price of a townhome or condo rose to $386,250, a 20.7% gain over last June. For the first half of 2021, closed sales across the state are up 9.1%, while active listings of inventory statewide are at a preposterously low 9,345, a nearly 59% decline over the same period last year. This represents just 0.8 month’s supply of inventory. The percentage of list price received at sale is now at a premium of 104.1% and days-on-market is just 24, down from 40 at this point last year.
Aspen and Snowmass Village Over the first six months of 2021, buyers continue to show a preference for single-family homes, both nationally and regionally, and this plays out in the Aspen/Snowmass Village real estate market as well. Prices of single-family homes in both Aspen and Snowmass Village continue to show dramatic price appreciation, both in average and, importantly, median price. By contrast, prices for townhomes and condos were flat to down. Moreover, closed sales of single-family homes in Aspen nearly doubled and sales of single-family homes in Snowmass Village nearly quadrupled, while multi-family home sales went up roughly 60% in both areas. Across Aspen and in Snowmass Village, there are around 300 properties on the market as of June 30, a little more than half of what was available at the same point in 2020. The recently issued Mountain Migration Report, commissioned by the Northwest Council of Governments and Colorado Association of Ski Towns, found that about one-fifth of part-time residents in mountain communities, including Aspen and Snowmass Village, spent more time in their part-time residence in 2020 than in past years, and were more likely to have done so outside of the traditional peak seasons. Many expect to spend even more time in the community going forward, encouraged at least in part by changes in employer remote work policies, the perception of a safer and more secure community, and the outdoor-oriented lifestyle. While this shift presents a myriad of challenges and opportunities for local jurisdictions, it points to the ongoing desirability and strength of the Aspen and Snowmass Village real estate market.
ASPEN
Single Family Homes The median price for single-family homes in Aspen for the first half of 2021 jumped to $9.8 million, up 40% over 20H1.The average sale price rose by 43% to $13.2 million. The number of sales nearly tripled from 22 to 64, and overall sales volume skyrocketed 315% to $844.5 million. The average sold price per square foot jumped from $1,535 in 2020 to $2,110 in the first half of this year. On June 30, 2021, there were 100 single-family homes on the market, compared to 174 at the same point last year. The most expensive single-family home sold in Aspen in January-June was for $72.5 million, nearly three times as expensive as last year. Average days on market fell slightly from 321 to 303, while percent of sold price to original listing price went up a meaningful 9% from 87% to 95%.
Median Sold Price
$10
$9.84M
Million
$8 $6
$5.70M $5.24M
$6.10M
40%
$7.04M
2020 vs 2021
$4 $2 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
Average Sold Price
2021 $15
Second Quarter YTD of
2020 vs 2021
Total Dollar Volume $1B
Million
$7.18M $7.11M
$366M
$357M $242M
2017
2018
2019
2020
Second Quarter YTD of
2021
$9.24M
$3 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
Second Quarter YTD of
2020 vs 2021
$203M
$200
$7.93M
$6
315%
$600
$0
$9
$845M
$800
$400
$12
Million
43%
$13.20M
2021
$2,500
Average Price Per Square Foot $2,110
$2,000 $1,500
$1,440
$1,631
37%
$1,434 $1,535
$1,000
2020 vs 2021
$500 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Second Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
9% 2020 vs 2021
92%
92%
91%
87%
95%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Second Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market 336 2017
260 2018
351 2019
321 2020
6% 303
2020 vs 2021
2021
Second Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
191% 2020 vs 2021
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
51
34
45
22
64
2017
2018
2020
2021
2019 Second Quarter YTD of
FIVE TREES PRIVACY
Aspen, Colorado
5 BEDROOMS | 6 FULL, 3 HALF BATHROOMS | 8,983 SF
STUNNING RED MOUNTAIN ESTATE
Aspen, Colorado
5 BEDROOMS | 4 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 4,920 SF
ASPEN
Condos and Townhomes Townhome and condo prices in Aspen dropped significantly, with the median sale price declining 19% to $1.75 million while the average price fell by an even larger 46% to about $2.4 million. The number of properties sold more than doubled from 40 to 107. Sales volume strengthened to $256 million (up from $176 million last year), while the average price per square foot slipped 9% to $1,800. Condo and townhome inventories were down significantly compared to last year, with just 96 units for sale at the end of June, compared to 132 last year. In the Aspen condo/townhome market, the most expensive unit sold so far this year was for $12 million, compared to last year’s record of $18.3 million. Average days on market for condos/townhomes declined dramatically from 353 to 173 and percent of sold price to original list price improved from 93% to 96%.
Median Sold Price $2.5
$2.16M
Million
$2.0 $1.5
$1.68M
$1.85M
19%
$1.75M
$1.35M
2020 vs 2021
$1.0 $0.5 $0.0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
$5
Second Quarter YTD of
2020 vs 2021
Total Dollar Volume $300
$3.00M
$3 $2 $1 $0
2017
$201M
45%
$100
2020 vs 2021
$164M $176M
$50 $0
2017
2018
2019
Second Quarter YTD of
2020
2021
2018
2019
2020
Second Quarter YTD of
$150
$200 $159M
$2.39M
$2.21M
$1.95M
$256M
$250
Million
$4.40M
$4
Million
46%
Average Sold Price
2021
Average Price Per Square Foot $1,977
$2,000
$1,459
$1,500 $1,264
$1,800
$1,565
9%
$1,000
2020 vs 2021
$500 0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Second Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
3% 2020 vs 2021
94%
94%
95%
93%
96%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Second Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market
252 2017
300 2018
211
353
2019
2020
173 2021
51% 2020 vs 2021
Second Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
168%
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
82
67
74
40
107
2017
2018
2020 vs 2021 2020 2019 Second Quarter YTD of
2021
COTTONWOOD CORE CONDO
Aspen, Colorado
2 BEDROOMS | 2 BATHROOMS | 1,040 SF
CHATEAU BLANC
Aspen, Colorado
2 BEDROOMS | 2 BATHROOMS | 973 SF
SNOWMASS VILLAGE
Single Family Homes
In Snowmass Village, median sale price of single-family homes more than doubled to $5.3 million, a 122% improvement over 20H1. Average price also rocketed from $3.2 million last year to $5.5 million so far this year. Price per square foot rose by 51% from $824 to $1,241. Closed sales jumped from 7 to 34 and dollar volume rose from just $22 million last year to a spectacular $185.8 million so far in 2021. There are just 25 single-family homes for sale in Snowmass Village at the end of June, down from 75 at the same time last year. The most expensive single-family home sold this past six months in Snowmass Village was for $12.5 million (compared to last year’s record of nearly $7.1 million). Average days on market for single-family homes in Snowmass Village rose from 167 days last year to 241 days so far this year. Percent of sold price to original list price pleasantly rose from 93% in 2020H1 to 96% in 2021H1.
Median Sold Price $6
$5.27M
$5
Million
$4 $3.57M
$2.45M
$3
122%
$3.23M $2.38M
2020 vs 2021
$2 $1 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
Average Sold Price
2021
2020 vs 2021
Total Dollar Volume $186M
Million
$150 $100
$73M
$74M
$0
2018
2019
2020
Second Quarter YTD of
2021
$3.18M
$3.07M
$3 $2 $1 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
Second Quarter YTD of
2020 vs 2020
$22M 2017
$4
$4.21M
$3.86M
735%
$84M
$50
$5
Million
72% $200
$5.46M
$6
Second Quarter YTD of
2021
Average Price Per Square Foot $1,500
$1,241
$1,200 $900
$930
$850
51%
$824
$762
$600
2020 vs 2021
$300 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Second Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
3% 2020 vs 2021
90%
93%
93%
93%
96%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Second Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market
293
385 2017
2018
323
167
2019
2020
241 2021
44% 2020 vs 2021
Second Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
386%
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
19
24
20
7
34
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2020 vs 2021
Second Quarter YTD of
MEADOW RANCH JEWEL
Snowmass Village, Colorado
3 BEDROOMS | 2 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 2,472 SF
PREMIER MOUNTAIN OASIS
Snowmass Village, Colorado
5 BEDROOMS | 5 FULL, 2 HALF BATHROOMS | 4,700 SF
SNOWMASS VILLAGE
Condos and Townhomes
Average days on market for single-family homes in Snowmass Village rose from 167 days last year to 241 days so far this year. Percent of sold price to original list price pleasantly rose from 93% in 2020H1 to 96% in 2021H1. Condo and townhome prices in Snowmass Village were very stable, with a median price of $805,000 and an average sale price of $1.3 million. There was a healthy 155% increase in the number of sales so far this year to 130. Sales volume increased 156% to $167 million and average price per square foot went up 8.0% to $894. At the end of June there were 78 townhome or condo units on the market in Snowmass Village, compared to 162 at this point last year. In the Snowmass Village condo/townhome market, the most expensive property sold for $9 million, compared to last year’s high of $5.25 million. Average days on market for condos/townhomes in Snowmass Village declined from 319 in 2020 to 172 so far this year, while the percent of sold price to original list price rose from 93% last year to 97% this year.
Median Sold Price Hundred Thousand
$1M
$835K $805K
$800 $716K $600
$698K
4%
$470K
$400
2020 vs 2021
$200 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
Average Sold Price
2021
Second Quarter YTD of
$1.5M $1.2M
0% $200
Million
$100 $50 $0
$668K
$600 $300 $0
2017
$69M $43M
$46M
2017
2018
156%
$65M
2020 vs 2021 2019
2020
Second Quarter YTD of
2021
2018
2019
2020
Second Quarter YTD of
$167M
$150
$1.06M
$915M
$900
2020 vs 2021
Total Dollar Volume
$1.28M $1.29M
2021
Average Price Per Square Foot $1,000 $800
$830
$802
$894
8%
$624
$613
$600 $400
2020 vs 2021
$200 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Second Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
4% 2020 vs 2021
94%
95%
96%
93%
97%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Second Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market
345 2017
159 2018
235
319
2019
2020
172 2021
46% 2020 vs 2021
Second Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
155%
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
47
69
65
51
130
2017
2018
2020 vs 2021 2019 Second Quarter YTD of
2020
2021
BASE VILLAGE PENTHOUSE
Snowmass Village, Colorado 3 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 2,000 SF
LIFESTYLE. LUXURY. LEGACY. 520 E Durant Ave Suite 205, Aspen • 970.544.5800 Properties@ChristiesAspenRE.com • ChristiesAspenRE.com