Fourth Quarter 2020 Market Report Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Aspen Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service
Economic Overview Nationally
By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
Nationally, the economy is likely to have closed out 2020 with strong Q4 GDP growth of about 4%. As a result, 2020 GDP is likely to come in at no worse than -3%, a very strong showing given where we were back in the spring. However, the forecast for 21Q1 is substantially more subdued, with growth expected to be no greater than a disappointing 1.5%, due to a combination of colder weather, rising coronavirus caseloads, a slower-than-hoped-for vaccine rollout, and an increase in government-mandated lockdowns. Economic growth should improve over the remaining three quarters of 2021, such that by late this year GDP is back to where it was before the onset of the pandemic. As for employment, it will probably take until mid-to-late 2023 for employment to fully recover. Inflation is likely to remain subdued through at least 2021, and the Fed is not expected to raise interest rates for at least several years. If long-term rates do start to rise, the Fed will probably shift to purchasing more long-term bonds to push them down. Turning our attention to politics, with Democrats controlling both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, albeit with razor-thin majorities on Capitol Hill, expect somewhat higher levels of government spending and some attempt to increase taxes on the wealthy and those with higher incomes. As for the stock market, with low rates prevailing and corporate earnings growth expected to be solid in 2021, the stock market, as measured by the broadly diversified S&P 500, should have a good year. “The housing market is expected to remain strong through 2021 due to a combination of favorable demographics, continued low-interest rates, easier access to credit, and a continued lack of new and existing inventory.” That said, existing and new sales are very unlikely to exceed the very strong levels of activity they have exhibited over the last five months. They should, however, be able to maintain or come very close to maintaining that level of activity during the upcoming year. Home prices should continue to rise, but by about half the rate they experienced in 2020. Housing is a bright spot in our recovering economy and should remain so going forward.
“The housing market is expected to remain strong through 2021 due to a combination of favorable demographics...”
Economic Overview Colorado In Colorado, the statewide unemployment rate was 6.4% as of 11/2020 and has been stable for the last several months as it dropped from a peak of 12.2% in April, both lower than comparable national levels. Statewide continuing claims for unemployment bottomed out at 79,697 for the week ending 11/21/20 but have steadily risen since and at are 110,035 for the week ended 12/26/20. This mirrors the overall US economy, which appears in the last several months to be temporarily sputtering. As vaccination rates improve, tourism rebounds and fiscal stimulus courses through the economy, unemployment numbers should improve.
“Closed sales across the state are up 16.3%, while active listings of inventory are at all-time lows, and in many areas are well less than half 2019 levels...”
Across the state of Colorado through November, the median sales price of single-family homes rose 8.7%, and condo/townhomes rose 6.6% compared to 2019. Closed sales across the state are up 16.3%, while active listings of inventory are at all-time lows, and in many areas are well less than half 2019 levels. All indicators point to a continuing sellers’ market across most of the state in 2021.
Aspen
Single Family Homes The median price for single-family homes in Aspen for the calendar year 2020 rose to a staggering all-time high of $9.25 million, up 54% over 2019. Average sale prices jumped by 47% to $11.1 million. The number of sales grew by 81% to 161, and overall sales volume rose 165% to $1.8 billion dollars! The average sold price per square foot jumped from $1,481 in 2019 to $1,840 in 2020. The most expensive single-family home sold in Aspen in 2020 was for $32 million, while in 2019, it was $23 million. Average days on the market stayed relatively flat at 313, and percent of sold price to original listing price was also virtually unchanged at 92%.
Median Sold Price
$10
$9.25M
Millions
$8
$6.30M
$6 $5.07M
$5.43M
$6.00M
54%
2019 vs 2020
$4 $2 2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
47%
2019 vs 2020
Average Sold Price
$11.13M
$12
Fourth Quarter YTD of
$10
Millions
$0
$8
$7.98M $6.45M
$6.59M
$7.59M
$6 $4 $2
Millions/Billions
$2B
Total Dollar Volume
2016
$798M
$1B
$494M
165%
$500M $355M
2016
2017
2018
2019 vs 2020
$675M
2019
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2020
2017
2018
2019
Fourth Quarter YTD of
$1.80B
$1.5B
$0
$0
2020
Average Price Per SQFT $1,840
$2,000
$1,600
$1,500 $1,368
$1,463 $1,481
24%
$1,000
2019 vs 2020
$500 $0
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
1%
2019 vs 2020
91%
92%
93%
91%
92%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market 274 2016
351 2017
294 2018
303 2019
3%
313
2019 vs 2020
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
81%
2019 vs 2020
Number of Properties Sold SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
55
100
75
89
161
2018
2019
2016
2017
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2020
As Good As It Gets Aspen, Colorado
7 BEDROOMS | 7 FULL, 2 HALF BATHROOMS | 20,740 SQFT
Aspen Living Defined
Aspen, Colorado
5 BEDROOMS | 7 FULL, 3 HALF BATHROOMS | 10,897 SQFT
Aspen
Condos and Townhomes Townhome and condo prices in Aspen are also up significantly over 2019, with the median price gaining 44% to $2.6 million and the average sales price up 59% to $3.7 million. The number of properties rose to 185, the highest level of recent memory, and was up 31.0% from last year. Sales volume was up 109% to $692 million, and the average price per square foot rose 21% to $1,899. In the condo/townhome market, the most expensive home sold this year was $18.3 million compared to $14.4 million the year before. Average days on the market for condos/townhomes rose slightly to 252, and the percent of sold price to original list price was flat at 95%.
$3.0
Median Sold Price $2.63M
Millions
$2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.28M
$1.55M $1.58M
$1.82M
44%
2019 vs 2020
$1.0 $0.5 $0.0
2016
2017
2018
2019
Average Sold Price
2020
2019 vs 2020
$3.5 $3.0
Millions
59%
$3.74M
$4.0
Fourth Quarter YTD of
$2.5 $2.0
$2.00M
$2.25M
$2.67M
$2.35M
$1.5 $1.0 $0.5
$800
Total Dollar Volume
$692M
$700
Millions
$600 $500 $400 $300
$394M $376M $268M
$331M
$100 2016
2017
2018
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2019
2020
2017
2016
2018
2019
Fourth Quarter YTD of
109%
2019 vs 2020
$200 $0
$0.0
2020
Average Price Per SQFT
$2,000 $1,500
$1,231
$1,370
$1,899
$1,520 $1,573
21%
$1,000
2019 vs 2020
$500 $0
2016
2017
2018
2019
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2020
% Sold Price to Original List Price
0%
2019 vs 2020
94%
95%
94%
95%
95%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market 250 2016
232 2017
289
237
2018
2019
6%
252
2019 vs 2020
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
31%
2019 vs 2020
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
134
175
141
141
185
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Residences at the Little Nell Aspen, Colorado
4 BEDROOMS SHARED OWNERSHIP | MINIMUM OF 6 WEEKS PER YEAR
Monarch on the Park
Aspen, Colorado
3 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 3,429 SQFT
Snowmass Village Single Family Homes
In Snowmass Village, median sales prices of single-family homes were largely unchanged at $3.7 million, although average prices gained 8% and rose to $4.3 million. Sales rose smartly from 49 in 2019 to 69 in 2020, and dollar volume rose by 52% to almost $300 million. Average sold price per square foot rose 7% to $977. The most expensive single-family home sold in 2020 in Snowmass Village sold for just over $14.6 million. By comparison, the most expensive single-family home sold during 2019 was for $14.3 million. Average days on market for single-family homes in Snowmass Village plummeted from 383 in 2019 to 252 in 2020 and percent sold price to original list price rose from 91% in 2019 to 94% in 2020.
Median Sold Price
$3.60M $3.66M
$4.0
$3.31M $3.5 $2.55M $2.60M
Millions
$3.0 $2.5
2%
2019 vs 2020
$2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 2016
2017
2018
2019
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2020
8%
2019 vs 2020
Total Dollar Volume
$299M
$300
Millions
$250
$150M $142M $134M $150
$50 2016
2017
2018
2019
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2020
$4.34M
$3.31M $3.13M
$3 $2 $1 $0
2016
2017
2018
2019
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2019 vs 2020
$100
$0
$4
$4.03M
$3.94M
52%
$198M
$200
Average Sold Price
$5
Millions
$0.0
2020
$1,000
Average Price Per SQFT $911
$881
$775
$800
$977
$758
7%
$600
2019 vs 2020
$400 $200 $0
2016
2017
2018
2019
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2020
% Sold Price to Original List Price
3%
2019 vs 2020
92%
92%
92%
91%
94%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market 327
336 2016
2017
302
383
2018
2019
34%
252
2019 vs 2020
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
41%
2019 vs 2020
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
38
43
43
49
69
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Snowmass Village Gem - Sold Snowmass Village, Colorado
5 BEDROOMS | 5 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 5,579 SQFT
Pine Crest Ski-In, Ski-Out Snowmass Village, Colorado
5 BEDROOMS | 6 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 5,500 SQFT
Snowmass Village
Condos and Townhomes Condo/townhome prices in Snowmass Village increased significantly, with median prices up 16% to $885,000 and average sales prices up 29% to $1.4 million. The number of sales increased 54% to 197, while sales volume doubled to $278 million. The average price per square foot rose 7% to $844. In the condo/townhome market, the most expensive property went for $7.9 million this year, compared to $6.1 million last year. Average days on the market for condos/townhomes in Snowmass Village declined from 271 in 2019 to 237 in 2020, while sold price to original listing price was unchanged. $1M $800 $600
Median Sold Price $666K $628K $601K
$765K
$885K
16%
2019 vs 2020
$400 $200 $0
2016
2017
2019
2018
Average Sold Price
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
$1.41M
$1.5M
29%
2019 vs 2020
$1.2M $900K
$916K $921K $869K
$600K $300K $0
2016
Total Dollar Volume $278M
$300
99%
Millions
$250 $200
$136M $140M
$150 $100 $81M
2019 vs 2020
$97M
$50 $0
2016
2017
2018
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2019
2020
$1.09M
2017
2018
2019
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2020
Average Price Per SQFT $1,000 $800
$635
$634
$689
$791
$844
7%
$600
2019 vs 2020
$400 $200 $0
2016
2017
2018
2019
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2020
% Sold Price to Original List Price
0%
2019 vs 2020
93%
95%
96%
96%
96%
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market 368 2016
377 2017
271
239
2019
2018
13%
237
2019 vs 2020
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
54%
2019 vs 2020
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
88
105
156
128
197
2019
2020
2016
2017
2018 Fourth Quarter YTD of
One Snowmass - Luxury Rental Snowmass Village, Colorado
3 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 2,000 SQFT
Lumin Penthouse - Luxury Rental Snowmass Village, Colorado
4 BEDROOMS | 4 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 3,165 SQFT
Lifestyle. Luxury. Legacy. 520 E Durant Ave Suite 205, Aspen • 970.544.5800 Properties@ChristiesAspenRE.com • ChristiesAspenRE.com