ASPEN
| SNOWMASS
ASPEN & SNOWMASS FOURTH QUARTER 2021 MARKET REPORT Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Aspen Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Nationally
By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
While 21Q3 GDP growth of 2.3% was a bit of a disappointment, preliminary estimates for 21Q4 growth look to be in the range of 5-6% despite the arrival of the Omicron variant of Covid-19 late in the quarter. Regrettably, Omicron is likely to do some meaningful damage to 22Q1, and instead of having growth somewhere in the ballpark of 5%, it is more likely to be in the range of 2-2.5%. It is important to note that these waves of Covid seem to generally push demand forward rather than reducing it permanently, and as such, I expect overall GDP growth in 2022 to be somewhere in the vicinity of 4%, which while down from what will likely wind up to be 5.5% for 2021, is still a great number. Looking even further into the future, 2023 should be a bit slower and end up somewhere around 2.5%, which is back to ‘normal’ as we slowly revert to trend growth.
“The Federal Reserve adjusted their approach to monetary policy in November as inflation concerns heightened, and they reduced their monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed-securities such that they will no longer be making any purchases by the end of March 2022.” While a bit volatile, overall job growth was quite good in 2021 and should continue to do well into 2022, such that by the end of 2022 we will have recovered the remaining 3.4 million jobs that were lost during the pandemic and will be back to pre-Covid levels of employment. That would translate into roughly 285,000 new jobs per month in 2022, nearly double the pre-Covid number. Still, that leaves the United States millions of jobs shy of where we would have been in the absence of Covid. In other words, by the end of 2022, we will still be short 3-3.5 million jobs that we would have seen created in an economy without Covid. As for inflation, it is largely being driven by a combination of supply chain problems, an inability of suppliers to produce goods (due to input shortages and lack of available labor) and, simultaneously, unusually strong consumer demand, which is driven at least in part by forced savings and government payments. These inflationary effects are likely to peak in 22Q1 and should generally decline throughout the year, with inflation ending 2022 at 4%. The Federal Reserve adjusted their approach to monetary policy in November as inflation concerns heightened, and they reduced their monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed-securities such that they will no longer be making any purchases by the end of March 2022. Initially, they had signaled that they would take a slightly longer time to taper. This leaves them free to further address inflation by raising interest rates as early as March of 2022. I expect them to raise rates at least twice, probably three times, and possibly as many as four times in 2022, with increases of a quarter-point each time, such that by the end of 2022, longterm rates and the 30-year mortgage rate in particular will increase by 0.5% to around 3.7%. As far as fiscal policy is concerned, it became contractionary in the second half of 2021 and is likely to remain quite contractionary through 2022, despite the passage of the infrastructure bill. In terms of the fate of the Biden administration’s “Build Back Better” or social infrastructure bill, prospects look increasingly weak, but it’s too early to write its obituary. It may be that in the end, parts of the bill make it through the legislative process, but unless that happens by mid-year, I see little likelihood that we will see much movement on it. In terms of the national housing market, it continues to go from strength to strength. While there were some hopes that available inventories would rise, that has so far not materialized, and year-over-year levels continue to decline. As we enter 2022 with inventories at record seasonal lows, elevated household formation, and good job growth, all expectations are that 2022 will be yet another strong seller’s market, despite the probability of higher interest rates. Regarding prices, it appears that at the national level price appreciation peaked several months ago and going forward we should see price gains weaken from the upper teens to the lower teens or upper single digits. Importantly, there are no indications that we are seeing anything like what we saw in 2005/2006 in the buildup to the housing bust of 2007/2008. Dodd-Frank has done much to guarantee that home buyers are truly qualified, what was then a housing glut is now a housing shortage, and interest rates, even as they rise somewhat in 2022, will remain at historical lows. This remains a very strong housing market.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Colorado
Unemployment in Colorado is at 4.8% as of 12/2021, after hitting a peak of 12.1% in April 2020. For comparison, the pre-pandemic rate was 2.8%. Additionally, the most recent data released by the Colorado Department of Labor and Employment shows that the state has recovered nearly nine out of every ten jobs lost during the pandemic. Statewide continuing claims for unemployment hit a high of 265,499 for the week ended 5/16/20 (compared to a pre-pandemic level of 21,956) and are now at 20,040 for the week ended 01/08/22. In Pitkin County, the December unemployment rate is 4.1% and continues to steadily decline when seasonality is factored in. Still, despite elevated unemployment rates, many employers continue to have difficulty filling vacant positions, part of the ongoing impact of the “Great Resignation.”
“Active listings of inventory statewide hit an all-time low of 6,408 at the end of December, down 47.6% compared to December 2020 and represent just 0.6 month’s supply of inventory, well below the national average of 2.1 months.” Statewide, the December 2021 median price of a single-family home of $529,995 was 18% higher than December 2020, while the average price of $697,762 was 18.6% more. In the condo/townhome market, the median price compared to last year rose 10.6% to $385,000, while the average price rose 11.7% to $539,776. Through December 2021, closed sales across the state are down 8.8% while new listings are down 12.5% compared to 2020. Active listings of inventory statewide hit an all-time low of 6,408 at the end of December, down 47.6% compared to December 2020 and represent just 0.6 month’s supply of inventory, well below the national average of 2.1 months. Across the state, the percentage of list price received at sale is 100.8% and days-on-market is just 33 days, down from 43 at the end of December 2020.
Aspen and Snowmass Village For the first time, the median sale price of a single-family home in Aspen hit the $10 million mark, a 7% gain over 20Q4. Single-family home prices in Snowmass Village posted a median sale price of $5.2 million, a staggering 42% gain over last year. Townhome and condo prices in Aspen declined compared to last year, with a median sale price of $2.15 million while townhomes and condos in Snowmass Village gained 9% to $965,000. Through December, there were 706 residential properties sold throughout the Aspen/Snowmass Village area, an impressive 15% gain over last year’s already heated number, and overall sales volume in 2021 grew by 10% to nearly $3.4 billion. At the end of December, there were just 45 single-family homes on the market throughout the entire Aspen/Snowmass Village area and just 24 townhomes and condos, declining to about one-fifth of last December’s level. In a move that is likely to, at least in the short-term, disrupt the housing market within the City of Aspen, the City Council passed an emergency ordinance in early December that placed a six-month moratorium on new short-term rentals and banned new construction permits that demolish existing structures or that would expand living area, square footage or increase building height. This will encourage some prospective buyers to purchase, build and renovate outside of the Aspen city limits, while the limits on new construction will likely drive up prices within Aspen itself. The other measures, such as the limits on demolition and restrictions on short-term rentals will likely soften demand in the city slightly.
ASPEN
Single Family Homes The median price for single family homes in Aspen through December 2021 rose to $10 million, up 7% over the same period of 2020 and easily an all-time high. The average sale price of $12.95 million was a 16% gain over 2020. The number of closed sales declined 12% to 143 but overall dollar volume increased by 2% to $1.85 million. Average sold price per square foot rose from $1,855 in 2020 to $2,198 in 2021. As of December 30, 2021, there were 39 single-family homes on the market, compared to 104 at the same point last year, a 63% decline. The most expensive single-family home sold in Aspen during 2021 was for $72.5 million, compared to $32 million in 2020. Days on market fell from 312 to 239, while percent of sold price to original listing price rose from 92% last year to 94% this year.
Median Sold Price $9.38M
$10
Million
$8
$6.3M
$6
$5.43M
$10M
7%
$6M
2020 vs 2021
$4 $2 $0
Average Sold Price 2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
$15
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2020 vs 2021
Total Dollar Volume $1.5B
Million
$9 $7.98M
$1B $798M
$494M
$500
2017
$0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2018
2019
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2020 vs 2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
$7.59M
$3
2%
$675M
$6.59M
$6
$1.81B $1.85B
$2B
$0
$12
Million
16%
$12.95M $11.18M
2021
$2,500 $2,000
Average Price Per Square Foot
$2,198
$1,600
$1,500
$1,855
18%
$1,463 $1,481
$1,000
2020 vs 2021
$500 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
2% 2020 vs 2021
92%
93%
91%
92%
94%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market 351 2017
294 2018
303 2019
312 2020
23% 239
2020 vs 2021
2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
12% 2020 vs 2021
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
100
75
89
162
143
2020
2021
2017
2018
2019 Fourth Quarter YTD of
SECLUDED RIVERFRONT ESTATE
Woody Creek, Colorado
6 BEDROOMS | 6 FULL, 3 HALF BATHROOMS | 10,198 SF
FIVE TREES PRIVACY
Aspen, Colorado
5 BEDROOMS | 9 BATHROOMS | 8,983 SF
ASPEN
Condos and Townhomes Townhome and condominium prices in Aspen were down over 2020, with the median sale price declining 18% to $2.15 million while the average price was down 15% to $3.19 million. The number of properties sold increased from 185 in 2020 to 245 in 2021. Sales volume of $780.4 million was up from $691.6 million last year, while average price per square foot rose 11% to $2,110. Condo and townhome inventories were down 87% from last December with just 13 units on the market. In the Aspen condo/townhome market, the most expensive unit sold in 2021 was for $36.5 million, far more than last year’s record of $18.3 million. Days on market for condos/townhomes declined from 252 to 153 and percent of sold price to original list price increased from 95% to 97%.
Median Sold Price $3
$2.63M
Million
$2.5 $2
18%
$2.15M $1.55M $1.58M
$1.82M
$1.5
2020 vs 2021
$1
Average Sold Price
$0.5 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Total Dollar Volume
$3 $2.5
Million
2020 vs 2021
$2.25M
$600
$1 $0.5 $0
2017
$300
2020 vs 2021
$200 $100 2017
2018
2019
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2020
2021
2018
2019
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
13%
$500 $394M $376M $331M $400
$2.35M
$1.5
$692M
$700
$2.67M
$2
$780M
$800
Million
$3.19M
$3.5
15%
$0
$3.74M
$4
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2021
Average Price Per Square Foot $2,500
$1,899
$2,000 $1,500
$2,110
11%
$1,520 $1,573
$1,370
2020 vs 2021
$1,000 $500 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
2% 2020 vs 2021
95%
94%
95%
95%
97%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market
232 2017
289 2018
237
252
2019
2020
153 2021
39% 2020 vs 2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
32%
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
175
141
141
185
245
2017
2018
2020
2021
2020 vs 2021 2019 Fourth Quarter YTD of
ASPEN CORE CONTEMPORARY
Aspen, Colorado
3 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 2,420 SF
WEST END SOPHISTICATION
Aspen, Colorado
3 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 2,844 SF
SNOWMASS VILLAGE
Single Family Homes
In Snowmass Village, the median sale price of single-family homes of $5.2 million was 42% more than last year. Average price rose by 25% to $5.4 million. Average price per square foot increased 27% to $1,245. Closed sales increased by 6% to 73 and dollar volume rose by 33% to nearly $397 million. There are just 6 single-family homes for sale in Snowmass Village at the end of December, down from 33 last December. The most expensive single-family home sold in 2021 in Snowmass Village was for $12.5 million, while in 2020 the highest price home sold for $14.6 million. Days on market for single-family homes in Snowmass Village declined from 252 days last year to 188 days in 2021. Percent of sold price to original list price increased from 94% in 2020 to 96% in 2021.
Median Sold Price $6
$5.20M
$5
Million
42%
$3.60M $3.66M
$4
$2.60M $3 $2.55M
2020 vs 2021
$2 $1 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
Average Sold Price
2021
2020 vs 2021
Total Dollar Volume $397M
Million
$250
$2 $1 $0
2017
33%
$198M $142M $134M
2020 vs 2021
$100 $50 $0
$4.34M
$3
$299M
$300
$150
$4 $3.31M $3.13M
$4.03M
2018
2019
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
$350
$200
$5
Million
25% $400
$5.44M
$6
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2017
2018
2019
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2021
2021
Average Price Per Square Foot $1,500
$1,245
$1,200
$977
$600
27%
$300
2020 vs 2021
$900
$0
$775
2017
$758
2018
$911
2019
2020
2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
2% 2020 vs 2021
92%
92%
91%
94%
96%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market
302
327 2017
2018
383
252
2019
2020
188 2021
25% 2020 vs 2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
6%
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
43
43
49
69
73
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2020 vs 2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
SECLUDED SNOWMASS VILLAGE HOME
Snowmass Village, Colorado
LUXURY RENTAL 4 BEDROOMS | 3 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 3,086 SF
CASA ALCE
Snowmass Village, Colorado LUXURY RENTAL 5 BEDROOMS | 4 FULL, 1 HALF BATHROOMS | 3,836 SF
SNOWMASS VILLAGE
Condos and Townhomes
Condo and townhome prices in Snowmass Village rose 9% compared to last year, with a median price of $965,000. The 2021 average price of $1.44 million was a slight 2% gain over 2020. Closed sales increased from 197 to 245, and sales volume rose 27% to $352.2 million. Average price per square foot rose from $844 to $1,009. At the end of December there were just 11 townhome or condo units on the market in Snowmass Village, compared to 74 last December. In the Snowmass Village condo/townhome market, the most expensive property sold for $9 million, compared to last year’s high of $7.9 million. Days on market for condos/townhomes in Snowmass Village through December declined from 237 in 2020 to 136 in 2021, while the percent of sold price to original list price rose from 96% last year to 98% this year.
Median Sold Price Hundred Thousand
$1,000 $800
$885K
$965K
$765K
9%
$628K $601K
$600 $400
2020 vs 2021
$200 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
Average Sold Price
2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
$1,200
2%
$900
2020 vs 2021
Total Dollar Volume $400
Million
$600 $300 $0
2017
$200
$97M
$136M $140M
2020 vs 2021
$50 2017
2018
2019
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
2021
2018
2019
2020
Fourth Quarter YTD of
27%
$250
$0
$921M $869K
$278M
$300
$100
$1.10M
$352M
$350
$150
$1.41M $1.44M
$1,500
2021
Average Price Per Square Foot $1,200
$1,009
$1,000 $800
$634
$689
$791
$844
20%
$600 $400
2020 vs 2021
$200 $0
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
% Sold Price to Original List Price
2% 2020 vs 2021
95%
96%
96%
96%
98%
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Average Days on Market
377 2017
239 2018
271
237
2019
2020
136 2021
43% 2020 vs 2021
Fourth Quarter YTD of
Number of Properties Sold
24%
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
SOLD
105
156
128
197
245
2017
2018
2020
2021
2020 vs 2021 2019 Fourth Quarter YTD of
ONE SNOWMASS PENTHOUSE
Snowmass Village, Colorado
3 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 2,000 SF | LUXURY RENTAL
LIFESTYLE. LUXURY. LEGACY. 520 E Durant Ave Suite 205, Aspen • 970.544.5800 Properties@ChristiesAspenRE.com • ChristiesAspenRE.com