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SUMMIT COLORADO FIRST QUARTER 2021 MARKET REPORT Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Matrix Multiple Listing Service
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Nationally
By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
Despite early predictions of a soft first quarter, economic forecasts have steadily improved and 21Q1 GDP growth is likely to exceed 6%! With the combination of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, improving vaccination rates, substantial pent-up demand from the last year, and sizable amounts of forced savings in the trillions, there is every reason to expect growth of over 8% in 21Q2 and 21Q3. By 21Q4, we will likely see growth slow to a still remarkable 7% as we begin to slowly return to normal trend growth by the end of 2022 or early 2023. As for the stock market, with low interest rates likely to prevail for some time and corporate earnings growth expected to be solid in 2021, the stock market, as measured by the broadly diversified S&P 500, should have a good year. While the Federal Reserve has revised their 2021 forecasts for inflation, GDP, and unemployment, they have barely modified their 2022/23 forecasts. This means the Fed very much thinks the latest stimulus monies will lead to a short-term boost to the economy but nothing more. They are essentially looking through this short-term growth and any corresponding inflationary effects. As such, they remain strongly wedded to their existing inflation-fighting plans and do not anticipate raising short term rates before 2023 and are unlikely to commence their tapering of $80 billion/month in Treasuries and $40 billion/month in mortgage-backed securities before the start of 2022. While consumer spending data in February was disappointing due to the combination of unusually harsh weather, the gap between stimulus packages, and payback for very strong growth in prior months, consumer spending will undoubtedly improve in March. Relatedly, job growth is clearly turning the corner. After a slight decline in employment in December, job creation has steadily improved and topped 900,000 in March, and over the rest of this year, the economy should easily create between 500,000 and a million new jobs a month. Despite this unusually strong employment growth, the unemployment rate will be hard pressed to decline by more than one percentage point as more people will be drawn to the increasingly vibrant job market. As a result, it will be important to focus more on job creation rather than the slowly declining monthly unemployment rate. The housing sector continues to look good and construction activity will likely rise by a modest 5-6% pace over 2020 given the many capacity constraints (labor and input prices).
“By 21Q4, we will likely see growth slow to a remarkable 7% as we begin to slowly return to normal trend growth by the end of 2022 or early 2023.”
Legislatively, the long-awaited-for “hard” infrastructure bill is now moving to center stage and will shortly be accompanied by a “soft” infrastructure bill. Despite bipartisan agreement on the need for improvements to the nation’s “hard” infrastructure including highways, bridges, broadband, and infrastructure, these bills will be narrowly passed along strictly partisan lines due to disagreements about the size of the bills and how to pay for them. The passage must occur prior to Thanksgiving, and unlike the several stimulus packages, this legislative effort will boost economic activity over an extended period of between five and eight years.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Colorado
In Colorado, the statewide unemployment rate was 6.6% as of 02/2021 (compared to the pre-pandemic rate of 2.8%). Statewide continuing claims for unemployment hit a high of 265,499 for the week ended 5/16/20, (compared to a pre-pandemic level 21,956) and are now at 82,157 for the week ended 03/27/21. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (for self-employed and gig workers) hit a high of 104,713 for the week ended 4/18/20, have generally declined since, and are at 50,535 for the week ending 3/13/21. With increasing vaccination rates and improvements in the wider national economy, unemployment numbers should continue to improve.
“For the first quarter of 2021, closed sales across the state are up 8.9%, while active listings of inventory statewide are at a staggeringly low...”
Statewide, the March 2021 median price of a single-family home rose to $485,000, a 14.4% gain over March 2020, while the median sales price of a townhome or condo rose to $362,500, a 9.8% gain over last March. For the first quarter of 2021, closed sales across the state are up 8.9%, while active listings of inventory statewide are at a staggeringly low 6,732, a nearly 70% decline over the same period as last year and represents just 0.6 month’s supply of inventory.
BRECKENRIDGE
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$1,289,250
15%
$1,563,500
2020 vs
$1,583,894
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SQFT
$575
2020 vs
2021
5%
$445,000
$1,827,651
$63,355,769
2021
Avg Days on Market
103
2020 vs
$118,797,300
2021
Number of Properties Sold
38%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$492
17%
88%
64
40
2021
63%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
21%
Total Dollar Volume
15%
$5,295,000
65
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$640,000
12%
$752,500
2020 vs
$771,765
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SQFT
$735
2020 vs
2021
10% $267,000
$862,129
$60,969,420
2021
Avg Days on Market
58
2020 vs
$72,418,877
2021
Number of Properties Sold
10%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$659
11%
19%
52
79
2021
6%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
18%
Total Dollar Volume
31%
$3,300,000
84
2021
KEYSTONE
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$1,075,000
96%
$1,710,000
2020 vs
$1,104,000
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SQFT
$557
2020 vs
2021
42% $880,000
$2,161,667
$5,552,000
2021
Avg Days on Market
111
$12,970,000
2020 vs
2021
Number of Properties Sold
50%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$338
65%
134%
56
5
2021
20%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
59%
Total Dollar Volume
168% $4,025,000
6
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
2%
8%
2020 vs
$470,000
$510,204
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SQFT
2020 vs
$613
2021
0%
$250,000
$548,884
$13,775,500
2021
Avg Days on Market
115
2020 vs
$34,579,712
2021
Number of Properties Sold
17%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$555
10%
151%
96
27
2021
133%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
$480,000
Total Dollar Volume
57%
$1,370,000
63
2021
COPPER MOUNTAIN
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
Total Dollar Volume
1%
1%
1%
$3,850,000
2020 vs
$3,795,000
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SQFT
2020 vs
$605
2021
1%
$3,850,000
$3,795,000
2021
Avg Days on Market
189
2020 vs
$3,850,000
2021
Number of Properties Sold
98%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$563
7%
$3,850,000
4
1
2021
0%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
$3,795,000
1%
$3,850,000
1
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$495,000
44%
$637,561
2020 vs
$504,450
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SQFT
$711
2020 vs
2021
9%
$326,000
$728,405
$6,053,400
2021
Avg Days on Market
90
$18,938,521
2020 vs
2021
Number of Properties Sold
92%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$594
20%
213%
7
12
2021
117%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
29%
Total Dollar Volume
183% $2,095,000
26
2021
SILVERTHORNE/DILLON
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$1,265,000
28%
$1,344,840
2020 vs
$1,102,477
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SQFT
$476
2020 vs
2021
20%
$650,000
$1,412,733
$27,561,926
2021
Avg Days on Market
66
2020 vs
$55,096,593
2021
Number of Properties Sold
65%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$400
19%
100%
23
25
2021
56%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
6%
Total Dollar Volume
47%
$3,090,000
39
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$452,250
19%
$560,000
2020 vs
$519,103
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SQFT
2020 vs
$476
2021
43% $265,000
$616,340
$25,955,174
2021
Avg Days on Market
68
2020 vs
$54,237,932
2021
Number of Properties Sold
31%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$449
6%
109%
47
50
2021
76%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
24%
Total Dollar Volume
23%
$1,250,000
88
2021
FRISCO
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$970,000
110%
$1,900,000
2020 vs
$970,000
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SQFT
$711
2020 vs
2021
88%
$1,200,000
$2,035,000
$1,940,000
2021
Avg Days on Market
11
$10,175,000
2020 vs
2021
Number of Properties Sold
64%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$492
44%
424%
4
2
2021
150%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
96%
Total Dollar Volume
154%
$3,300,000
5
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
Total Dollar Volume
2%
5%
3%
$787,000
2020 vs
$838,185
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SQFT
$591
2020 vs
2021
17% $261,178
$19,278,246
2021
Avg Days on Market
32
2020 vs
$19,908,628
2021
Number of Properties Sold
78%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$533
11%
$796,345
7
23
2021
9%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
$799,000
44%
$1,899,000
25
2021
PARK COUNTY
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$375,000
19%
$442,125
2020 vs
$395,602
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SQFT
$280
2020 vs
2021
10%
$159,900
$470,361
$20,175,700
2021
Avg Days on Market
116
2020 vs
$19,755,173
2021
Number of Properties Sold
56%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$224
25%
2%
51
51
2021
18%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
18%
Total Dollar Volume
47%
$1,035,000
42
2021
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