—
SU M M IT
CO LO R A D O —
SUMMIT COLORADO FIRST QUARTER 2022 MARKET REPORT Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Matrix Multiple Listing Service
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Nationally
By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
The story of 22Q1 is the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Along with the horrific humanitarian situation, there are significant negative impacts on US and global growth and markets. Making things worse, inflation, already troublingly high, has increased due to the Russian aggression for several reasons. First, energy prices rose dramatically because Russia is a large producer of oil, natural gas, and coal; in fact, it is one of the top three global exporters of all three fossil fuels. There is a direct supply impact from the war itself and additional effects from supply line disruptions and sanctions. This translates into uncertainty around availability and rising futures prices, which feeds immediately into inflation. Secondly, Russia and Ukraine are large exporters of cereals and industrial metals, which causes prices of those commodities to rise, and along with sanctions, has impacted supply chains. The one-two punch of omicron in the first part of the quarter and the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February/March has meaningfully damaged GDP growth in the just concluded first quarter of 2022, and we’ll be lucky to see a 1% gain, well down from what was initially expected. In response to the inflationary pressures on the economy, the Fed is likely to raise rates at all six remaining interest rate-setting meetings this year. Further, the FOMC is strongly hinting at several rate hikes of 50 basis points/half a percentage point instead of the usual 25 basis points/ quarter point bumps to catch up to the inflationary curve. Moreover, the Fed has recently signaled an intent to reduce the size of their balance sheet more rapidly in another effort to dampen inflation. These contractionary policies are largely already baked into the cake, so to speak, and are thus not likely to push mortgage rates much higher than they already are.
risk of a recession is increased, and rate-raising cycles generally end in recession. This particular rate-raising cycle will be big and therefore the risk is higher. Further, sometimes simply the fear of the Fed raising rates too much or too quickly may be enough to cause a recession. With this in mind, the likelihood of a recession in the next 12-18 months is about 30-35%. In the housing market, inventory will stay scarce. Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, housing inventory had already been shrinking for well over a decade, from a peak of slightly more than 4.0 million units at the end of July 2007 to just 1.5 million at the end of February 2020. Then Covid-19 came and pushed inventory much lower, to just 860,000 units. While inventory is now rising, as is typical in the spring, year-over-year changes in inventory remain negative, and it will continue to be a sellers’ market. While price appreciation in 2021 was torrid, with national prices rising close to 20%, price appreciation will slow in 2022 for three key reasons. First, with mortgage rates higher, some buyers will inevitably get priced out, reducing demand. Second, builders are likely to complete somewhat more houses in 2022 than in 2021, and in the process, boost supply somewhat. Lastly, for much of 2021 inflation was lower, so inflation-adjusted price appreciation was just slightly below nominal price appreciation. However, with inflation already running hot at over 8% in the early months of 2022, even if prices rise by 15% in 2022, real price appreciation will be much reduced.
Finally, as they have for several years now, first-time buyers will continue to struggle in the current housing market. This is partly because of rising prices and interest rates, but also because Boomers are staying in their homes One area to monitor closely is the yield curve, which longer as they increasingly prefer to age-in-place and is becoming of concern to financial markets as it because they are living longer than earlier generations. flirts with a mild inversion, where, for example, the In addition, builders are no longer constructing as yield on the two-year Treasury is above the ten-year many entry-level homes as the cost of land, materiTreasury. The reason for concern is that the last six als and labor conspire to make it all but impossible. or seven times this happened, a recession followed. Add to that the large savings hoard that was accumuThat said, which pairs of Treasuries should be comlated during the worst of Covid-19, the fact that forpared is hotly debated, and the timing of when the reeigners are once again traveling to the US and looking cession arrives after the inversion occurs ranges from to buy, and that Wall Street is also buying new and seven to 33 months, and this time, of course, could existing single-family homes to rent, and the percentconceivably be different. Still, because the Fed needs age of cash buyers has probably never been higher. to raise rates so much to throttle back inflation, the
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Colorado
Unemployment in Colorado is at 4.0% as of 02/2022 after hitting a peak of 11.8% in May 2020 (for comparison, the pre-pandemic rate was 2.8%). Statewide continuing claims for unemployment hit a high of 265,499 for the week ended 5/16/20 (compared to a pre-pandemic level of 21,956) and are now at 18,559 for the week ended 04/02/22. In fact, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that employment in Colorado now exceeds pre-covid levels. In Pitkin County, the February unemployment rate is 3.5% and continues to steadily decline when seasonality is factored in (May and November). Statewide, the March 2022 median price of a singlefamily home of $575,000 was 18.6% higher than March 2021, while the average price of $719,381
was 17.1% more. In the condo/townhome market, the median price gained 16.3% to $420,000, while the average price rose 13.0% to $547,416. Through March 2022, closed sales across the state are down 9.6%, while new listings declined 6.2% compared to 2021. The 6,901 active listings of inventory statewide at the end of March are about one-third less than last March and represent a 0.6-month supply of inventory, well below the national average of 1.7 months. Across the state, the percentage of list price received at sale is 104.2%, and days-on-market is just 26 days, down from 37 days at the end of March 2021.
BRECKENRIDGE
240 Carroll Lane, Breckenridge 3 BEDROOMS | 3.5 BATHROOMS | 2,468 SF
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
55%
$2,111,000
2021 vs
$1,827,651
2021 vs
2022
Avg Sold Price per SF
$750
2021 vs
64
130% $1,025,000
2022
$93,377,370
2021 vs
2022
Number of Properties Sold
45%
2021 vs
2022 Lowest Price Sale
$575
$118,797,300
$2,829,617
Avg Days on Market
30%
21%
35
65
2022
49%
2021 vs Highest Price Sale
35%
$1,563,500
Total Dollar Volume
130%
$12,200,000
33
2022
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$752,500
2021 vs
$885,000
$862,129
2021 vs
2022
Avg Sold Price per SF
32%
2021 vs
$969
52
2022
37%
$365,000
$72,418,877
$1,106,918
2022
Avg Days on Market
$58,666,628
2021 vs
2022
Number of Properties Sold
58%
2021 vs Lowest Price Sale
$735
19%
28%
84
22
2022
37%
2021 vs Highest Price Sale
18%
Total Dollar Volume
18%
$2,700,000
53
2022
KEYSTONE
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$1,710,000
0%
$1,929,120
2021 vs
$2,161,667
2022
2021 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$632
2021 vs
56
38% $550,000
2021 vs
2022
$10,789,120
2022
Number of Properties Sold
21%
2021 vs
2022 Lowest Price Sale
$557
$12,970,000
$2,157,824
Avg Days on Market
13%
17%
6
44
2022
633%
2021 vs Highest Price Sale
13%
Total Dollar Volume
7% $4,295,000
44
2022
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
45%
$730,000
2021 vs
$548,884
2022
2021 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$732
2021 vs
96
2022
40% $350,000
2021 vs
2022
$45,450,588
2022
Number of Properties Sold
89%
2021 vs Lowest Price Sale
$613
$34,579,712
$797,379
Avg Days on Market
19%
31%
11
63
2022
10%
2021 vs Highest Price Sale
55%
$470,000
Total Dollar Volume
36% $1,865,000
57
2022
COPPER MOUNTAIN
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
6%
6%
$3,600,000
2021 vs
$3,850,000
2022
2021 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$768
4
2022
22% $3,000,000
$3,850,000
2022
2021 vs
2021 vs
$7,200,000
2022
Number of Properties Sold
350%
27%
2021 vs
$3,600,000
Avg Days on Market
Lowest Price Sale
$605
87%
18
1
2022
100%
2021 vs Highest Price Sale
$3,850,000
Total Dollar Volume
9% $4,200,000
2
2022
Condo/Townhomes Average Sold Price
1%
14%
$637,561
$725,000
2021 vs
$728,405
2022
2021 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
2021 vs
$881
7
2022
27% $415,000
$18,938,521
2022
14%
2021 vs Lowest Price Sale
$711
45%
$739,000
Avg Days on Market
24%
Total Dollar Volume
2021 vs
$10,346,000
2022
Number of Properties Sold
6
26
2022
46%
2021 vs Highest Price Sale
Median Sold Price
53% $985,000
14
2022
SILVERTHORNE/DILLON
160 Hamilton Creek Trail, Silverthorne 6 BEDROOMS | 6.5 BATHROOMS | 7,445 SF
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
51%
57%
$1,412,733
$2,029,595
2021 vs
2022
2021 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$610
2021 vs
23
2022
21% $512,009
$55,096,593
2022
$90,766,155
2021 vs
2022
Number of Properties Sold
104%
2021 vs Lowest Price Sale
$476
$2,213,809
Avg Days on Market
28%
65%
47
39
2022
5%
2021 vs Highest Price Sale
$1,344,840
Total Dollar Volume
110% $6,500,000
41
2022
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
4%
9%
$616,340
$580,000
2021 vs
2022
2021 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
47
$650
2021 vs
2022
19% $315,025
2021 vs
2022
$34,164,613
2022
Number of Properties Sold
70%
2021 vs Lowest Price Sale
$476
$54,237,932
$669,894
Avg Days on Market
37%
37%
88
14
42%
2021 vs
2022 Highest Price Sale
$560,000
Total Dollar Volume
91% $2,389,000
51
2022
FRISCO
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
8%
$2,035,000
$2,050,000
2021 vs
2022
2021 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
13%
$616
2021 vs
4
2022
45% $1,740,000
$10,175,000
$2,281,250
2021 vs
2022
Avg Days on Market
$13,687,500
2022
Number of Properties Sold
1075%
2021 vs Lowest Price Sale
$711
35%
12%
47
5
2022
20%
2021 vs Highest Price Sale
$1,900,000
Total Dollar Volume
2% $3,250,000
6
2022
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$787,000
67%
$1,232,975
2021 vs
$796,345
2022
2021 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$821
2021 vs
7
2022
109% $545,000
$19,908,628
2022
2021 vs
$21,224,580
2022
Number of Properties Sold
57%
2021 vs Lowest Price Sale
$591
$1,326,536
Avg Days on Market
39%
7%
3
25
2022
36%
2021 vs Highest Price Sale
57%
Total Dollar Volume
15% $2,192,850
16
2022
PARK COUNTY
2314 High Creek Road, Fairplay 2 BEDROOMS | 2 BATHROOMS | 1,246 SF
Single Family Homes Average Sold Price
35%
$442,125
$470,361
$595,100
2021 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
26%
$354
2021 vs
51
82% $291,000
$19,755,173
$33,123,900
2021 vs
2022
2022
Number of Properties Sold
14%
2021 vs
2022
68%
$675,998
Avg Days on Market
Lowest Price Sale
$280
44%
2021 vs
2022
Total Dollar Volume
58
42
2022
17%
2021 vs Highest Price Sale
Median Sold Price
108% $2,150,000
49
2022
82 Sunset Crater View, Hartsel 5 ACRE +/- LOT
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
100%
$1,100,000
$0
2021 vs
2021 vs
2022
Avg Sold Price per SF
$0
2021 vs
353
100% $0
$1,100,000
2021 vs
2022
$0
2022
Number of Properties Sold
100%
2021 vs
2022 Lowest Price Sale
$116
$0
Avg Days on Market
100%
100%
0
1
2022
100% 0
2021 vs Highest Price Sale
100%
$1,100,000
Total Dollar Volume
100% $0
2022
LIFESTYLE. LUXURY. LEGACY. 323 N. Main Street Breckenridge • 970.344.9002 Info@ChristiesSummitCORE.com • ChristiesRealEstate.com