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SU M M IT
CO LO R A D O —
SUMMIT COLORADO SECOND QUARTER 2021 MARKET REPORT Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Matrix Multiple Listing Service
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Nationally
By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
2021Q2 GDP growth will most likely exceed 8%, and possibly even a mind-blowing 9%, encouraged by the residual effects of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, improving vaccination rates, steady if unspectacular improvement in job creation, high levels of savings, and a strong demand for dining out, travel and other services that were largely off-limits until recently. 2021Q3 GDP growth should weigh in at close to 8%, and 2021Q4 should close out the year at better than 6%. At worst, this year will experience the highest rate of growth since the recovery from the double-dip recession of the early 1980s, and at best, it could be the strongest since the very early 1950s! Regarding inflation, while it has certainly made its presence felt over the last few months by more than doubling from 2% to 5%, the Fed has been masterful in reassuring investors and markets that inflationary pressure is short-term and will subside over the next year. In addition, bond markets are beginning to factor in the realization that GDP growth in 2022 and 2023 will steadily slow and end up no greater than 2.25%. As a result, interest rates have remained pleasantly unchanged despite rising inflation. Next on the Fed’s agenda is tapering of their purchases of $80 billion/month in Treasuries and $40 billion/month in mortgage-backed securities, which should commence in 2022, with interest rate hikes starting in 2023. I suspect the 10-year Treasury rate will end 2021 up by a quarter-point. As the economy returns to a post-pandemic normal, spending patterns are undergoing change. To wit, real consumer spending in May fell 0.4% M-o-M. This decline was not across the board; real durable goods spending declined 4.3%, while real spending on non-durables eased 0.5%. In a preview of coming attractions, real spending on services, which is 60% of overall spending, rose 0.4%, showing a strong shift away from purchases of goods and towards services. This increased spending on services is being driven largely by households with incomes greater than $200,000, who boosted restaurant spending by 16%. And with savings rates 50% above pre-pandemic levels, there is clearly more gas in the tank. Add strong job creation the rest of the year of between 500,000 and 750,000 new jobs/month, and the unemployment rate should decline from the current 5.9% to 4.6%. As for housing, I expect both existing sales and housing starts to remain unchanged through the end of 2021.
“Fed has been masterful in reassuring investors and markets that inflationary pressure is short-term and will subside over the next year.”
Legislatively, the $300 billion, five-year Surface Transportation Investment Act of 2021 is working its way through Congress. Hope remains that a much larger bipartisan “hard” infrastructure bill, which will include spending on bridges, broadband, airports, and rail, among other things, totaling $1 trillion has the votes to also become law. Moreover, efforts are being made to pass a much larger “soft” infrastructure bill along strictly partisan lines. If passed, these proposals will clearly boost GDP growth some over the next five to eight years. Lastly, Congress must eventually vote to increase the debt ceiling, and ideally pass a budget before the new fiscal year starts on October 1, 2021. If a budget is not passed, Congress will do what it usually does and pass a Continuing Resolution to keep the government operating. Hopefully, there will be no stomach for any budget or debt ceiling antics.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Colorado
Unemployment in Colorado hit a peak of 12.1% in April 2020 and has since declined to 6.2% as of 05/2021, compared to the pre-pandemic rate of 2.8%. Statewide continuing claims for unemployment hit a high of 265,499 for the week ended 3/20/20, (compared to a pre-pandemic level of 21,956) and are now at 39,269 for the week ending 06/26/21. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims (for self-employed and gig workers) hit a high of 188,027 for the week ended 6/6/20, have generally declined since, and are at 23,860 for the week ending 6/19/21.
“This represents just 0.8 month’s supply of inventory. The percentage of list price received at sale is now at a premium of 104.1%...”
Statewide, the June 2021 median price of a single-family home rose to $530,000, a 24.4% gain over June 2020, while the median sale price of a townhome or condo rose to $386,250, a 20.7% gain over last June. For the first half of 2021, closed sales across the state are up 9.1%, while active listings of inventory statewide are at a preposterously low 9,345, a nearly 59% decline over the same period last year. This represents just 0.8 month’s supply of inventory. The percentage of list price received at sale is now at a premium of 104.1% and days-on-market is just 24, down from 40 at this point last year.
301 N Main Street, Breckenridge 5 BEDROOMS | 5 BATHROOMS | 2,970 SF
BRECKENRIDGE
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
45%
$1,544,250
2020 vs
$1,408,674
2020 vs
2021
Avg Sold Price per SF
$609
2020 vs
78
37%
$445,000
2021
44%
2020 vs
2021 Lowest Price Sale
$487
$108,467,909
$2,044,421
Avg Days on Market
25%
164%
$286,219,004
2020 vs
2021
Number of Properties Sold
44
77
2021
83%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
40%
$1,102,000
Total Dollar Volume
270%
$17,000,000
141
2021
48 Bluff Court #22, Breckenridge 3 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 2,134 SF
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$674,750
$770,000
2020 vs
$837,287
2020 vs
2021
Avg Sold Price per SF
22%
$809
2020 vs
59
2021
2%
$239,188
2021
39%
2020 vs
$103,823,649
$944,254
Avg Days on Market
Lowest Price Sale
$665
79%
13%
$186,018,136
2020 vs
2021
Number of Properties Sold
124
36
2021
59%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
14%
Total Dollar Volume
16%
$ 3,631,500
197
2021
KEYSTONE
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$1,075,000
79%
$1,820,000
2020 vs
$1,086,056
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$541
2020 vs
92
17% $725,000
2020 vs
2021
$25,215,000
2021
Number of Properties Sold
62%
2020 vs
2021 Lowest Price Sale
$367
$9,774,500
$1,939,615
Avg Days on Market
47%
158%
10
35
2021
40%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
69%
Total Dollar Volume
168% $4,025,000
14
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
9%
8%
$607,000
2020 vs
$596,062
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$627
2020 vs
96
2021
11% $250,000
$100,005,929
2020 vs
2021
2021
Number of Properties Sold
45%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$533
$29,207,049
$641,064
Avg Days on Market
18%
242%
53
49
2021
220%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
$555,000
Total Dollar Volume
120% $2,810,000
157
2021
COPPER MOUNTAIN
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
Total Dollar Volume
1%
1%
1%
$3,850,000
2020 vs
$3,795,000
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SQFT
2020 vs
$605
2021
1% $3,850,000
$3,795,000
2021
Avg Days on Market
189
2020 vs
$3,850,000
2021
Number of Properties Sold
98%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$563
7%
$3,850,000
4
1
2021
0%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
$3,795,000
1% $3,850,000
1
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
40%
$692,500
2020 vs
$532,319
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
2020 vs
$708
82
2021
9% $326,000
$10,646,378
2021
2020 vs
$41,628,542
2021
Number of Properties Sold
83%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$599
$743,367
Avg Days on Market
18%
291%
14
21
2021
167%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
36%
$509,950
Total Dollar Volume
128% $2,095,000
56
2021
SILVERTHORNE/DILLON
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
23%
27%
$1,130,191
$1,344,840
2020 vs
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$506
2020 vs
66
2021
11% $620,000
$56,509,548
2021
2020 vs
$147,550,486
2021
Number of Properties Sold
65%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$400
$1,432,529
Avg Days on Market
27%
161%
23
50
2021
106%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
$1,094,500
Total Dollar Volume
66% $3,800,000
103
2021
427 Fly Line Drive, Silverthorne 3 BEDROOMS | 3.5 BATHROOMS | 2,360 SF
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
19%
$532,057
$590,000
2020 vs
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
70
$502
2020 vs
2021
43% $265,000
2020 vs
2021
$137,115,421
2021
Number of Properties Sold
64%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$449
$73,955,934
$631,868
Avg Days on Market
12%
85%
185
25
17%
2020 vs
2021 Highest Price Sale
18%
$499,500
Total Dollar Volume
29% $1,325,000
217
2021
FRISCO
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
49%
$1,046,750
$1,662,500
2020 vs
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
13%
$621
2020 vs
35
2021
75% $1,120,000
$4,187,000
$1,862,786
2020 vs
2021
Avg Days on Market
$26,079,000
2021
Number of Properties Sold
71%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$551
523%
78%
10
4
2021
250%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
$1,119,500
Total Dollar Volume
152% $3,300,000
14
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$648,000
2020 vs
11%
$767,050
$743,866
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
2020 vs
$627
31
2021
8% $261,178
$31,986,250
2021
2020 vs
$53,008,549
2021
Number of Properties Sold
77%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$554
$828,259
Avg Days on Market
13%
66%
7
43
2021
49%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
18%
Total Dollar Volume
44% $1,899,000
64
2021
PARK COUNTY
1561 Prunes Place, Fairplay 3 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 2,650 SF
Single Family Homes Average Sold Price
42%
$355,000
$374,659
$503,100
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
29%
$311
2020 vs
101
98% $144,900
$35,967,253
2020 vs
2021
$58,305,923
2021
Number of Properties Sold
60%
2020 vs
2021
62%
$525,279
Avg Days on Market
Lowest Price Sale
$242
40%
2020 vs
2021
Total Dollar Volume
40
96
2021
16%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
Median Sold Price
47% $1,035,000
111
2021
Foxtail Estates Lot 20, Fairplay
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
152%
$258,000
$649,000
2020 vs
2020 vs
2021
Avg Sold Price per SF
$244
1
2020 vs
2021
72% $445,000
$258,000
$2,194,000
2020 vs
2021
2021
Number of Properties Sold
19,400%
17%
2020 vs
750%
$731,333
Avg Days on Market
Lowest Price Sale
$208
183%
195
1
2021
200%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
$258,000
Total Dollar Volume
326% $1,100,000
3
2021
LIFESTYLE. LUXURY. LEGACY. 323 N. Main Street Breckenridge • 970.344.9002 Info@ChristiesSummitCORE.com • ChristiesRealEstate.com