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SU M M IT
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SUMMIT COLORADO THIRD QUARTER 2021 MARKET REPORT Report Written By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. Source: Matrix Multiple Listing Service
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Nationally
By: Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D.
Despite early hopes for a spectacular Q3, cases of the Delta variant of Covid-19 began to rise throughout July and August and economic projections progressively worsened. We are likely to end up with 21Q3 GDP growth of around 3%, which is quite disappointing compared to the 7% we initially forecast. Some of the pent-up demand for consumer spending that we were unable to satisfy in 21Q3 will shift forward into 21Q4, so all is not lost. I expect that 21Q4 GDP growth will be around 5%, supported by continuing job growth and pent-up demand. We are also hopefully seeing something of an “end” to the pandemic phase of covid, and while it will undoubtedly remain an ongoing public health concern, with a full 57% of the population vaccinated and a considerable number with at least some level of natural immunity due to prior exposure, the chances of a wintertime surge again this year look unlikely. Overall, for 2021 I expect GDP growth to come in around 5%, well above our pre-covid trend of around 2-2.25%. Looking even further into the future, GDP growth for 2022 and 2023 will continue to slow toward normal, such that by the end of 2023, we should be back around 2-2.25%.
“A significant amount of uncertainty currently prevails on Capitol Hill. A tax increase is all but assured, but the size and details are largely unknown.” Job growth, while solid, is uninspiring but is likely to improve as covid numbers steadily recede. I expect to see monthly job growth, on average, of about 350,000 jobs per month through the end of 2022. Inflation remains a real problem, although there are signs that we may have seen the peak. Still, since the inflation we are experiencing appears likely to linger somewhat longer, calling it transitory may no longer be justified and the term “ephemeral” may be more applicable. Supply chain bottlenecks continue to be complicated and widespread, and “just-in-time” supply chain management has become “just-in-case” hoarding. The trajectory of inflation now appears to be higher for longer than we previously anticipated. In terms of Federal Reserve Bank actions, expansionary monetary policy will begin coming to an end as early as November of this year, and no later than January of 2022, when the Fed begins to taper its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. The tapering process will presumably end in either Q2 or Q3 of 2022, and sometime after that, the Fed will begin raising interest rates, which could be as early as late 2022, conditioned on prevailing inflationary pressures. Similarly, fiscal policy is now quite contractionary, and starting in 21Q2, began reducing GDP by about 2.5%/annum, the most contractionary stance in decades. This is likely to last at least another 12 months. A significant amount of uncertainty currently prevails on Capitol Hill. A tax increase is all but assured, but the size and details are largely unknown. Relatedly, two large spending bills are being negotiated, along with the next iteration of the debt ceiling debate. The stock market has, at least so far, taken things in stride, aided by solid earnings. Regardless of what is ultimately negotiated in terms of spending and tax increases, it is unlikely to dramatically alter the markets, as the contours of a deal are becoming increasingly clearer. Nationally, the housing market continues to do very well and is unquestionably strong. That said, we may be seeing some slight signs of slowing as inventories finally begin to rise just a bit. This is more indicative of a market that is settling into a normal, healthy pattern instead of the frenetic pace we saw in the last half of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021. Year-over-year metrics are suffering simply in comparison to the overheated market we experienced last summer and fall. Prices will remain strong, although likely with slower price appreciation going forward.
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Colorado
Unemployment in Colorado hit a peak of 12.1% in April 2020 and has since declined to 5.9% as of 08/2021, compared to the pre-pandemic rate of 2.8%. Statewide continuing claims for unemployment hit a high of 265,499 for the week ended 5/16/20 (compared to a pre-pandemic level of 21,956) and are now at 28,661 for the week ending 09/25/21. Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims (for self-employed and gig workers) hit a high of 188,027 for the week ended 6/6/20, have generally declined since, and with the expiration of federal benefits, are at just 121 for the week ending 9/18/21. In Pitkin County, the May unemployment rate of 9.1% is, unsurprisingly, still elevated compared to May 2019’s 5.9%. The August 2021 unemployment rate is 4.7%, compared to 2.2% in August 2019, indicative of a shrinking unemployment rate gap as conditions slowly improve. These elevated unemployment rates belie the real problems many employers continue to face in recruiting and retaining employees.
“Active listings of inventory statewide have recovered somewhat from June’s trough, and while still 37.4% below the same point last year...” Statewide, the September 2021 median price of a single-family home of $520,000 was 15.6% higher than September 2020, while the average price of $664,428 was 8.2% more than last year. In the condo/ townhome market, the median price compared to last year rose 11.6% to $385,000, while the average price rose 6.1% to $526,311. Through September 2021, closed sales across the state are up 7.6%, and new listings are virtually flat compared to 2020. Active listings of inventory statewide have recovered somewhat from June’s trough, and while still 37.4% below the same point last year, now represent a full month’s supply of inventory, still far below the national level of 2.6 months. The percentage of list price received at sale is 101.3%, slightly off this summer’s highs, and days-onmarket is 27, down from 44 at this point last year.
BRECKENRIDGE
535 Delaware Drive, Breckenridge 6 BEDROOMS | 6 BATHROOMS | 4,683 SF
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
35%
$1,680,000
2020 vs
$1,607,106
2020 vs
2021
Avg Sold Price per SF
$633
2020 vs
86
37%
$445,000
2021
52%
2020 vs
2021 Lowest Price Sale
$484
$350,349,062
$2,166,348
Avg Days on Market
31%
53%
$535,087,874
2020 vs
2021
Number of Properties Sold
41
218
2021
13%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
30%
$1,297,000
Total Dollar Volume
143%
$17,000,000
247
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$690,000
$770,000
2020 vs
$840,198
2020 vs
2021
Avg Sold Price per SF
28%
$833
2020 vs
55
2021
4%
$239,188
2021
47%
2020 vs
$231,054,557
$949,295
Avg Days on Market
Lowest Price Sale
$650
30%
13%
$299,977,260
2020 vs
2021
Number of Properties Sold
275
29
2021
15%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
12%
Total Dollar Volume
16%
$3,631,500
316
2021
KEYSTONE
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$1,400,000
29%
$1,820,000
2020 vs
$1,483,786
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$514
2020 vs
86
17% $725,000
2020 vs
2021
53%
2020 vs
2021 Lowest Price Sale
$403
$31,159,500
$1,912,780
Avg Days on Market
28%
53%
$47,819,501
2021
Number of Properties Sold
21
40
2021
19%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
30%
Total Dollar Volume
55% $4,025,000
25
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
15%
$630,000
2020 vs
$592,436
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$661
2020 vs
70
2021
11% $250,000
$150,074,484
2020 vs
2021
2021
Number of Properties Sold
40%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$526
$90,050,324
$679,070
Avg Days on Market
26%
67%
42
152
2021
45%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
15%
$549,000
Total Dollar Volume
116% $2,810,000
221
2021
COPPER MOUNTAIN
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$3,300,000
20%
$3,850,000
2020 vs
$3,200,000
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SQFT
2020 vs
$605
2021
43% $3,850,000
$3,850,000
98%
2020 vs
$9,600,000
2021
Avg Days on Market
166
Lowest Price Sale
$608
0%
60%
2020 vs
$3,850,000
2021
Number of Properties Sold
4
3
2021
67%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
17%
Total Dollar Volume
7% $3,850,000
1
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
21%
$720,000
2020 vs
$604,670
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
2020 vs
$721
83
2021
70% $167,000
$30,233,478
2021
2020 vs
$62,399,542
2021
Number of Properties Sold
83%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$600
$734,112
Avg Days on Market
20%
106%
14
50
2021
70%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
29%
$557,500
Total Dollar Volume
15% $2,095,000
85
2021
SILVERTHORNE/DILLON
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
18%
20%
$1,165,876
$1,314,340
2020 vs
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
$513
2020 vs
58
2021
21% $620,000
$160,890,937
2021
2020 vs
$242,070,650
2021
Number of Properties Sold
59%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$403
$1,399,252
Avg Days on Market
27%
50%
24
138
2021
25%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
$1,117,553
Total Dollar Volume
32% $3,800,000
173
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
22%
$544,680
$635,000
2020 vs
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
52
$553
2020 vs
2021
19% $221,066
2020 vs
2021
$237,416,040
2021
Number of Properties Sold
54%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$434
$186,825,295
$663,173
Avg Days on Market
27%
27%
343
24
4%
2020 vs
2021 Highest Price Sale
29%
$491,000
Total Dollar Volume
20% $1,680,000
358
2021
FRISCO
Single Family Homes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
34%
$1,297,322
$1,737,500
2020 vs
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
26%
$664
2020 vs
41
2021
75% $1,120,000
$28,541,080
$1,949,458
2020 vs
2021
Avg Days on Market
$46,787,000
2021
Number of Properties Sold
76%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$526
64%
50%
10
22
2021
9%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
$1,297,500
Total Dollar Volume
61% $3,300,000
24
2021
Condo/Townhomes Median Sold Price
Average Sold Price
$624,500
2020 vs
20%
$801,500
$718,410
2021
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
2020 vs
$671
34
2021
25% $261,178
$82,617,105
2021
$105,439,099
2020 vs
2021
Number of Properties Sold
74%
2020 vs Lowest Price Sale
$549
$864,255
Avg Days on Market
22%
28%
9
115
2021
6%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
28%
Total Dollar Volume
23% $2,085,000
122
2021
PARK COUNTY
3207 High Creek Road, Fairplay 4 BEDROOMS | 3 BATHROOMS | 3,686 SF
Single Family Homes Average Sold Price
29%
$398,000
$408,520
$515,000
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
37%
$332
2020 vs
82
98% $144,900
$91,100,003
$120,487,268
2020 vs
2021
2021
Number of Properties Sold
66%
2020 vs
2021
32%
$542,735
Avg Days on Market
Lowest Price Sale
$243
33%
2020 vs
2021
Total Dollar Volume
28
223
2021
0%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
Median Sold Price
18% $1,350,000
222
2021
Condo/Townhomes Average Sold Price
72%
$258,000
$258,000
$445,000
2020 vs
Avg Sold Price per SF
19%
$248
2020 vs
0
43% $369,000
$258,000
$2,988,000
2020 vs
2021
2021
Number of Properties Sold
122%
2020 vs
2021
1058%
$597,600
Avg Days on Market
Lowest Price Sale
$208
132%
2020 vs
2021
Total Dollar Volume
122
1
2021
400%
2020 vs Highest Price Sale
Median Sold Price
326% $1,100,000
5
2021
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