WORLD ENERGY TRANSITIONS OUTLOOK
6.4 AVAILABILITY OF SUSTAINABLE BIOMASS FEEDSTOCKS Factors influencing estimates of availability The amount of biomass feedstock needed to supply more bioenergy and biochemicals rises sharply in the 1.5°C Scenario, and in many other scenarios compatible with the 1.5°C climate goal. This raises the question of whether these quantities are realistic and can be produced in ways that respect sustainability requirements. Biomass use must lead to genuine and substantial GHG reductions, taking the entire carbon lifecycle into account, including the release of any carbon stocks caused by land-use change or impacts on soil carbon. At the same time, biomass use must respect other environmental, social and economic sustainability factors, including biodiversity. With ecosystems under serious threat, as highlighted by the IPCC’s recent Working Group II report, bioenergy scaleup must weight its impacts. As the IPCC has pointed out, there is good potential for synergies but also for conflict if objectives are pursued in isolation (IPCC, 2022b). Biomass sustainability is examined in more detail in Section 6.5. Estimates of the global, regional and national availability of biomass range widely – as much as two orders of magnitude – making judgment difficult and adding to uncertainty about the future of bioenergy. Other factors to consider include the potential competition between energy and other uses and the need to include appropriate sustainability constraints – in particular, the extent to which land can be used to grow energy crops while preserving food security and biodiversity. Increased demand for bioenergy, as well as biomass as a chemical feedstock, will also influence supply. Some economic thresholds may also need to be applied.
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