Introduction

In Paris in 2015, signatories to the United Nations Convention on Climate Change agreed to pursue efforts to keep the rise in global temperatures to well below 2°C and try to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2050. In 2021, IRENA presented a pathway to 1.5°C in the first edition of World Energy Transitions Outlook (WETO) in 2021. The pathway decarbonises all end uses, with electrification and energy efficiency as primary drivers, enabled by renewables, green hydrogen and sustainable modern bioenergy.

Putting the energy sector on a pathway to 1.5°C can also help address other important global concerns such as energy price volatility and energy security, two issues that have come into the spotlight since the publication of WETO 2021. The economic and social impacts of rapidly rising energy prices are increasingly being felt by consumers and businesses around the world. Energy security concerns, especially in Europe, are pushing policy makers to look for a faster deployment of alternatives, with renewables, energy efficiency and hydrogen at the top of the list.

At the same time, the climate crisis remains as urgent as ever, as evidenced by the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released at the end of February 2022. With climate change already wreaking substantial (and sometimes irreversible) damage to ecosystems, settlements, and infrastructure, the world faces multiple climate hazards, even if the warming can be contained to 1.5°C (IPCC, 2022). Exceeding this threshold, which appears increasingly likely, would result in additional severe impacts that are not only costly in economic terms but threatening to human well-being and survival.

Some important progress has been made in recent years to move the energy system away from fossil fuels, especially by adding renewables-based electricity capacity, which more than doubled over the past decade. However, this progress is still not ambitious enough to put the world on the right path to 1.5°C. Domestic and industrial heat, industrial processes and the transport sector remain highly reliant on fossil fuels in most countries, contributing significantly to emissions and perpetuating exposure to volatility in the prices of fossil fuels.

The probability of reaching the 2050 target depends on making sufficient progress in the near term, with the period to 2030 crucial for accelerated action across all energy use sectors. 2030 is also a critical year for achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), notably SDG7, which aims to ensure affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.

2022

Achieving the 2050 target by accelerating the deployment of renewables and taking vigorous action to raise energy efficiency is a no-regrets strategy that meets climate objectives. It also offers the benefits of a just and inclusive energy transition, such as universal energy access, job creation, poverty reduction, and a fair sharing of adjustment benefits and burdens.

By laying out a map for the coming eight years, Part A of WETO 2022 aims to help policy makers navigate the path to 2050. It also articulates the socio-economic impacts of the 1.5°C pathway and suggests ways to speed progress towards SDG7 on universal access to energy.

Chapter 1 recaps the IRENA 1.5°C Scenario and examines progress made to date through a set of key performance indicators. The chapter also examines the outcomes of the 2021 Glasgow climate conference and other high-level events such as the United Nations High Level Dialogue on Energy. It then presents the most likely emissions trajectory based on announcements and pledges from key countries.

Chapter 2 proposes a roadmap of priority actions towards 2030. It sets out what needs to be done in terms of technology deployment, examines the investment needed and discusses the policies that will have to be implemented to achieve the transition. It highlights the importance of a broad policy framework that can address deep social, economic, and environmental challenges.

Chapter 3 looks at the link between policy and the socio-economic aspects of the energy transition and how benefits can be more fairly distributed. It examines two policy baskets and the impacts on GDP, jobs, and welfare, with results for a range of countries.

Chapter 4 makes the point that accelerated progress on the SDG7 energy access goal must be part of the energy transition, with a focus on the role of cost-effective and environmentally sustainable renewables-based solutions for expanding access to electricity and clean cooking fuels and technologies.

Part B contains three technical deep-dives on electrification, bioenergy and critical materials.

Chapter 5 focuses on the role of electrification for decarbonising end-use sectors. It examines how the power sector can cope with much higher loads, as well as higher shares of variable renewables. It also includes case studies of heat pumps and green hydrogen, emphasising the role of international trade.

Chapter 6 analyses the important role of bioenergy in the 1.5°C Scenario. It discusses the challenges of scaling up global biomass supply, highlighting the importance for sustainability of strong governance and regulations. Policies to overcome barriers to greater biomass deployment are also explored.

Chapter 7 provides insights into the materials (metals and minerals) that are critical to delivering the 1.5°C Scenario. It includes an in-depth discussion of demand and supply aspects and considers options for mitigating the risk of supply shortages, including enhanced international governance.