Paths towards limiting warming to 1.5 or 2°C

Page 1

The Emissions Gap Lead authors: Joeri Rogelj, Priyadarshi R. Shukla Contributing authors: Rob Dellink, Michel den Elzen, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Jason Lowe, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan Riahi, Michiel Schaeffer, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef van Vuuren

29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

UNEP - The Emissions Gap Report 2012 The Emissions Gap Lead authors: Joeri Rogelj1, Priyadarshi R. Shukla2 Contributing authors: Rob Dellink3, Michel den Elzen4, Tatsuya Hanaoka5, Jason Lowe6, Gunnar Luderer7, Keywan Riahi8, Michiel Schaeffer9, Roberto Schaeffer10, Detlef van Vuuren4 1Institute

for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Switzerland Institute of Management, India 3Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, France 4Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Netherlands 5National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan 6MetOffice, UK 7Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany 8International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria 9Climate Analytics, Germany 10COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 2Indian

Acknowledgments Katherine Calvin, Volker Krey, Peter Kolp 29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

What is “the gap”?  Difference between:  Where we are heading

 What science tells us is a robust path towards 2oC

29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

What is “the gap”?  Difference between:  Where we are heading

 What science tells us is a robust path towards 2oC

29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

What is “the gap”?  Difference between:  Where we are heading

 What science tells us is a robust path towards 2oC

? 29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

Paths towards limiting warming to 1.5 or 2oC  Scientific scenario literature  Try to find:  technologically and economically feasible pathways  achieve a climate-related target  at the lowest cost possible

 Provide:  Required technology evolutions  Costs  Emissions (CO2, CH4, SLCFs, …)

 Probability of staying below temperature limits?  Probabilistic carbon-cycle and climate model closely in line with IPCC AR4 (MAGICC)

29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

Paths towards likely limiting warming to 2oC in 2020, 2030, and 2050 Consistent greenhouse gas emissions  For a likely chance (greater than 66% - IPCC, cf. Durban Platform)  2020: 44 GtCO2e/yr (41-47 GtCO2e/yr)

For a lower, medium chance (50-66%)  2020: 46 GtCO2e/yr (44-48 GtCO2e/yr)

29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

Paths towards likely limiting warming to 2oC in 2020, 2030, and 2050 Consistent greenhouse gas emissions  For a likely chance (greater than 66% - IPCC, cf. Durban Platform)  2020: 44 GtCO2e/yr (41-47 GtCO2e/yr)  2030: 37 GtCO2e/yr (33-44 GtCO2e/yr)

For a lower, medium chance (50-66%)  2020: 46 GtCO2e/yr (44-48 GtCO2e/yr)  2030: 41 GtCO2e/yr (39-46 GtCO2e/yr)

29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

Paths towards likely limiting warming to 2oC in 2020, 2030, and 2050 Consistent greenhouse gas emissions  For a likely chance (greater than 66% - IPCC, cf. Durban Platform)  2020: 44 GtCO2e/yr (41-47 GtCO2e/yr)  2030: 37 GtCO2e/yr (33-44 GtCO2e/yr)  2050: 21 GtCO2e/yr (18-25 GtCO2e/yr)

For a lower, medium chance (50-66%)  2020: 46 GtCO2e/yr (44-48 GtCO2e/yr)  2030: 41 GtCO2e/yr (39-46 GtCO2e/yr)  2050: 27 GtCO2e/yr (24-29 GtCO2e/yr)

29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

Paths towards likely limiting warming to 2oC in 2020, 2030, and 2050 Consistent greenhouse gas emissions  For a likely chance (greater than 66% - IPCC, cf. Durban Platform)  2020: 44 GtCO2e/yr (41-47 GtCO2e/yr)  2030: 37 GtCO2e/yr (33-44 GtCO2e/yr)  2050: 21 GtCO2e/yr (18-25 GtCO2e/yr)

For a lower, medium chance (50-66%)  2020: 46 GtCO2e/yr (44-48 GtCO2e/yr)  2030: 41 GtCO2e/yr (39-46 GtCO2e/yr)  2050: 27 GtCO2e/yr (24-29 GtCO2e/yr)

Current emissions: >50 GtCO2e/yr

29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

Paths towards likely limiting warming to 2oC in 2020, 2030, and 2050 Consistent greenhouse gas emissions  For a likely chance (greater than 66% - IPCC, cf. Durban Platform)  2020: 44 GtCO2e/yr (41-47 GtCO2e/yr)  2030: 37 GtCO2e/yr (33-44 GtCO2e/yr)  2050: 21 GtCO2e/yr (18-25 GtCO2e/yr)

For a lower, medium chance (50-66%)  2020: 46 GtCO2e/yr (44-48 GtCO2e/yr)  2030: 41 GtCO2e/yr (39-46 GtCO2e/yr)  2050: 27 GtCO2e/yr (24-29 GtCO2e/yr)

Current emissions: >50 GtCO2e/yr 2020 levels from pledges: 52-57 GtCO2e/yr 29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

The Gap with pathways having a likely chance of staying <2oC 

Four pledge cases: 8 to 13 GtCO2e/yr  Case 1: 13 GtCO2e/yr (9-16)  Case 2: 10 GtCO2e/yr (7-14)  Case 3: 11 GtCO2e/yr (7-15)  Case 4: 8 GtCO2e/yr (4-11)

UNFCCC options to limit the gap:  Strict accounting rules  LULUCF accounting (0.3 GtCO2e/yr)  Surplus AAU (1.8 GtCO2e/yr)  Eliminate double counting of credits (1.5 GtCO2e/yr)  Increase ambition of pledges to CLOSE the gap

29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

Results for 1.5oC Few pathways available in current literature      

Technologically and economically feasible 2020 emissions around 43 GtCO2e/yr Steep and sustained reductions afterwards Contributions of all greenhouse gas mitigation options Early action Temperature overshoot before 2100 probable

29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

Higher emissions in 2020? Later action scenarios (qualitative)

Short-term flexibility, but imply many future limitations vs early action scenarios  Technology dependence: flexibility vs uncertainty  Higher overall costs  Policy implications for  Participation  Societal choices (biodiversity, food & water security)

 Climatic risks  Rate of temperature change  Overshooting

29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

Higher emissions in 2020? Later action scenarios Short-term flexibility, but imply many future limitations vs early action scenarios  Technology dependence: flexibility vs uncertainty  Higher overall costs  Policy implications for  Participation  Societal choices (biodiversity, food & water security)

 Climatic risks  Rate of temperature change  Overshooting

 Current pledges would lead to 3 to 5oC 29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

Robust paths towards 1.5 and 2oC?

 Early action  Greenhouse gas emissions decline significantly by 2020  Global peaking before 2020  Energy efficiency measures are key to achieve lower future energy demand

29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

Thanks

UNEP - The Emissions Gap Report 2012 Chapter 3: The Emissions Gap Lead authors: Joeri Rogelj, Priyadarshi R. Shukla Contributing authors: Rob Dellink, Michel den Elzen, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Jason Lowe, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan Riahi, Michiel Schaeffer, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef van Vuuren

29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

Backup slides

Rogelj et al. (2012), Nature Climate Change 29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

Backup slides

Rogelj et al. (2012), Nature Climate Change 29 November 2012

EU Side Event – COP18 – Doha

Joeri Rogelj

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