Water Security, Risk and Society Oxford, April 2012
Small probability events that could cause water supply collapse
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Jerson Kelman CEO of Light Group
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Regiﾃ｣o Sudeste / Centro-Oeste
Hydrological uncertainty 120
% EAR Mﾃ々 100
80
60
40
20
0 Nov/99
Dez/99
Jan/00
F ev/00
Mar/00
Abr/00
Mai/00
Jun/00
Jul/00
Ago/00
Set/00
Out/00
Nov/00
Dez/00
Storage in the equivalent reservoir
100 90
Beginning 2000
80
Beginning 2001
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 jan/02
jul/01
jan/01
jul/00
jan/00
jul/99
jan/99
jul/98
jan/98
jul/97
jan/97
Water Storage in the Sobradinho Reservoir Simulação do comportamento do reservatório de FURNAS (Vazão firme = 670 m³/s) 25000
15000
Fourth worst drought in record 10000
Volume morto = 5733 hm³
5000 Nov/56 = 5733 hm³
n00
Ja
n97
Ja
n94
Ja
n91
Ja
n88
Ja
n85
Ja
n82
Ja
n79
Ja
n76
Ja
n73
Ja
n70
Ja
n67
Ja
n64
Ja
n61
Ja
n58
Ja
n55
Ja
n52
Ja
n49
Ja
n46
Ja
n43
Ja
n40
Ja
n37
Ja
n34
Ja
n31
0 Ja
Volume (hm³)
20000
Mês/ano
Armazenamento final (hm3)
Volume Morto (hm3)
Fonte dos Dados: ONS
Lessons from case 1 • Decisions under uncertainty are politically evaluated by their consequences, not by their wisdom • The layman expects that the water (or electric energy) supply system is able to endure the worst drought in record • It is sometimes preferable to make easy to understand but less than optimal decisions
Drought prone area
Sobradinho Reservoir Sao Francisco River Basin
Brazil
During the 1887-89 drought, about one million people emigrated from the drought prone area Countless died
HYDROLOGICAL VICIOUS CYCLE
People are Poor
No firm water supply
Little investment in high-value crops or industry
It is necessary an initial stock of investments on water infrastructure before reaching the “in8lexion point… and then real progress starts (David Grey and Claudia Sadoff, “Sink or Swim? Water security for growth and development”)
INTERBASIN WATER TRANSFER
Qmean São Francisco River = 2600 m3 /s 26 m3 /s ≤ Qdiversion ≤ 127 m3 /s 1% of Qmean ≤ Qdiversion ≤ 5% of Qmean 600 Km of channels
Water Storage in the Sobradinho Reservoir Simulação do comportamento do reservatório de FURNAS (Vazão firme = 670 m³/s) 25000
15000
10000
Volume morto = 5733 hm³
5000 Nov/56 = 5733 hm³
n00
Ja
n97
Ja
n94
Ja
n91
Ja
n88
Ja
n85
Ja
n82
Ja
n79
Ja
n76
Ja
n73
Ja
n70
Ja
n67
Ja
n64
Ja
n61
Ja
n58
Ja
n55
Ja
n52
Ja
n49
Ja
n46
Ja
n43
Ja
n40
Ja
n37
Ja
n34
Ja
n31
0 Ja
Volume (hm³)
20000
Mês/ano
Armazenamento final (hm3)
Volume Morto (hm3)
Fonte dos Dados: ONS
Opportunity cost of water in the Sobradinho Reservoir
90% of capacity
Sobradinho Reservoir
Small reservoir in the recipient region
u
tin
n o C
Water flow from the S達o Francisco River Basin
erm itte nt
riv er
Pipeline
Int
s u o
w o l f
r e v ri
Water reliability in different site of the recipient region w without diversion
95%
with diversion
95%
Small reservoir in the recipient region
u
o nu
i nt o C
Water flow from the São Francisco River Basin
low f s
• Interbasin Diversion Project • Build local reservoirs • Build pipes and channels
Water for production
X
Int
erm
itte
nt
riv er
Pipeline
er riv
“I will sustain a hunger strike until Government cancels the Project” (Bishop Dom Cappio) • No Interbasin Diversion Project • Build individual water tanks • Store rain falling on the roofs
Water for survival
Lessons from case 2 • When the probability P of a catastrophic drought tends to zero and the corresponding cost C tends to infinity… Expected Cost … 0 × ∞ …undefined Mathematical lack of definition… … political lack of resolution
• When ideology opposes hydrology, it is very difficult to discuss water security challenges using risk as a unifying framework
Thank you! jerson.kelman@light.com.br