Housing Canada's Carbon Migrants

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

CHRISTOPHER OLAND

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

CHRISTOPHER ANDREW OLAND S.B. Mechanical and Materials Sciences and Engineering Harvard University, 2010

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

Master of Architecture in

The Faculty of Graduate Studies School of Architecture and Landscape Architecture Architecture Program

Committee members:

Mari Fujita Raymond Cole Patrick Condon

Mari Fujita - GP2 Chair

Raymond Cole- GP1 Mentor

The University of British Columbia © February 2014

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

ABSTRACT Humanity is more than a generation late in stopping carbon emissions. In a last ditch effort to spare future generations from the worst consequences of global warming, worldwide carbon emissions are phased out over a five year period. The resulting energy shortage from lack of fossil fuels causes the largest global recession since industrialization. Canada experiences a wave of massive, economically induced migrations as people move from areas that are heavily dependent upon fossil fuels for jobs, government services, electricity, transportation, and heating. Alberta loses the most population as over 900,000 people leave for British Columbia, Manitoba, and Ontario.

The Lower Mainland, well provisioned by hydroelectricity and transit, and blessed with a warm climate, grows by over one million people in a decade.

Metro Vancouver faces dual housing emergencies.

Hundreds of thousands must be rapidly housed, with construction occurring in a post-carbon economy. At the same time, most homeowners in the region inhabit energy dependent single family homes in car dependent neighbourhoods, both of which are now obsolete.

Among the hundreds of projects needed to transform the region, the Newton Industrial Park is redeveloped around an expanded freight and passenger train network.

Waste heat from industry is concentrated at a series of public baths which act as energy lifelines to suburban homes. The Newton Baths combine this balneal outreach with apartments for migrants in an attempt to address both crises.

ii

CONTENTS ABSTRACT CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS DEDICATION

ii iii iv v vii viii

A QUICK PRIMER ON GLOBAL WARMING THE CARBON MIGRATION MIGRATION HIGHLIGHTS THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS NUNAVUT YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES NEWTON INDUSTRIAL PARK MATERIAL CONSTRAINTS THE NEWTON BATHS THE NEED FOR MITIGATIVE ARCHITECTURE

1 11 29 31 33 35 49 66 98

ENDNOTES BIBLIOGRAPHY

107 119

APPENDICES A: WHO ARE THE CARBON MIGRANTS? B: THE AGRICULTURAL COUNTERCURRENT C: MORE ON MATERIALS

129 134 137

iii

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

LIST OF TABLES Table 1.

Table 2.

Table 3.

Summary of global warming mitigation scenarios studied by members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report.

Embodied energy of common architectural materials, with carbon dependent materials highlighted.

Diversity of Surrey, Calgary, and Edmonton.

iv

5 55 131

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration vs. temperature for the last 420,000 years, as measured from Vostok ice core samples.

3 Figure 2.

Falloff of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations following zero emissions after various peak levels reached.

7 Figure 3.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and concentration growth rate, measurements from Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii.

9 Figure 4.

Northern Europe with 60 m of sea level rise.

10 Figure 5.

India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar with 60 m of sea level rise.

10 Figure 6.

China, Korea, and Japan with 60 m of sea level rise.

10 Figure 7.

The Pyramids of Giza with 60 m of sea level rise.

10 Figure 8.

Global energy production vs. global GDP per capita since the Industrial Revolution.

13 Figure 9.

Canadian energy production by source.

15 Figure 10. Canadian energy consumption by end use.

15 Figure 11. Share of provincial jobs supported by fossil fuel industries.

17 Figure 12. Share of government revenue from fossil fuel industries.

19 Figure 13. Share of electricity production from fossil and non-fossil sources.

21 Figure 14. Heating requirements for the population of Canada.

23 Figure 15. The five most walkable cities in Canada, as measured by Walk Score. 25 Figure 16. Predicted population movement of the Canadian carbon migration. 27 Figure 17. Migration paths from the Magdalen Islands in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence.

29 Figure 18. Communities, and electricity grids, of Nunavut.

31 Figure 19. Hydro (white) and diesel communities (black) of Yukon and Northwest Territories, and schematic continental grid below.

33 Figure 20. Areas of rapid redevelopment along Newton’s traffic corridors, 2015-2020.

37 Figure 21. Newton Industrial Park.

39 Figure 22. The relationship of new stations (black dots) of the reactivated British Columbia Electric Railway to regional population density.

41 Figure 23. Redeveloped Newton Industrial Park with industrial zones (yellow), mixed use zones (blue), and energy distribution centres.

43 Figure 24. Three different methods for societal energy usage.

45 Figure 25. Canadian single family home energy consumption.

47 Figure 26. Diminishing returns in efficiency in the US steel industry.

51 Figure 27. Diminishing returns in efficiency in the aluminum industry.

51 Figure 28. Global carbon dioxide emissions showing the sizeable contribution from the production of Portland cement.

53 Figure 29. Installation of helical screw foundation.

57 Figure 30. Cross-laminated timber core.

59 Figure 31. Construction with CLT core and glulam column and beam structure. 59 Figure 32. Model of the prefabricated envelope panel.

61 Figure 33. Angular profile of the panel insulation.

61 Figure 34. Effective envelope performance vs. window-to-wall ratio for four types of glazing.

63 Figure 35. Completed wall assembly incorporating prefabricated panel.

65 Figure 36. Program diagram for the Newton Baths showing daily, annual, and decadal usage.

67 Figure 37. Diagram showing the generation potential for the Newton Baths site.

69 Figure 38. Diagram showing energy usage for the Newton Baths.

71 Figure 39. Ground floor plan.

73 Figure 40. Render of the ground floor marketplace.

74 Figure 41. Model of the ground floor showing the core, three egress stairs, and relationship to the street, greenway, and neighbouring buildings.

75 77 Figure 42. 2ND floor plan.

Figure 43. Render of the women’s baths.

78 Figure 44. Render of the multipurpose room.

79 Figure 45. 3RD floor plan.

81 Figure 46. Model of west courtyard.

82 Figure 47. Model of south courtyard.

83 Figure 48. Render walkways facing the west courtyard on the 4th floor.

85 Figure 49. Model of the solar array on the roof and canopy suspended over v

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS the south courtyard.

Figure 50. Building and context model, bird’s eye aerial looking north, originally 1:200 (16 in x 28 in).

Figure 51. Board 1 - Site Plan, originally 1:1000 (40 in x 24 in).

Figure 52. Board 2 - Building Sections, originally 1:100, and energy generation analysis (40 in x 24 in).

Figure 53. Board 3 - Ground Floor Plan, originally 1:100, and program diagram (40 in x 24 in).

Figure 54. Board 4 - 3rd Floor Plan, originally 1:100, and energy consumption analysis (40 in x 24 in).

Figure 55. Board 5 -2nd Floor Plan, originally 1:100, and net positive diagram (40 in x 24 in).

Figure 56. Board 6 - Structure and Assembly (40 in x 24 in).

Figure 57. Board 7 - Wall Detail, originally 1:10 at section cut, and envelope design diagram (40 in x 24 in).

Figure 58. Board 8 - Renders of west balcony and multipurpose room (40 in x 24 in).

Figure 59. Board 9 - Renders of women’s bath and streetscape (40 in x 24 in).

Figure 60. A poster protesting an Australian shark cull in January 2014 shows the difference in human response between unintentional and intentional threats.

Figure 61. Creeping climate normality from the 2013-2014 winter, illustrated by an XKCD comic.

Figure 62. A popular meme from 2012 illustrates the power of intercohort changes towards views on marriage in the United States.

Figure 63. Canadian migration history since 1900.

Figure 64. Estimated age pyramid of carbon migrants arriving in the Lower Mainland vs. the populations of British Columbia and Alberta.

vi

87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 101 103 105 131 133

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS To my committee members, for the time, effort, and insight they committed to this project:  Patrick, for inspiring this thesis.  Ray, for your guidance over two semesters on this project, and your teaching over many more.  Mari, for your patience and push to make this project better than I thought it could be.

To my friends, who contributed more time than anyone could expect:            

Adrienne Borrie Eric Lajoie Gourav Neogi Jennifer Leung Josimar Dominguez Katie Schick Laura Dolson Mark Francis Minnie Chan Nick Kuchin Suzanne Kraus Vanessa Kent

Finally, to my family, for their unwavering support:    

Mom Dad Ainslie Macaskill

Thank you.

vii

To everyone who thinks we’re not so special.

viii

CHAPTER 1

A QUICK PRIMER ON GLOBAL WARMING

Since humans have existed upon our planet—and a good deal before that as well—Earth’s climate has followed a regular pattern:  avg. global temp.  atmospheric CO2

-9°C to +3°C vs. present 180 - 300 ppmv

In the 12,000 years since the development of agriculture, temperature and carbon dioxide levels have fluctuated within an even tighter band:  avg. global temp.  atmospheric CO2

-2°C to +2°C vs. present 250 - 285 ppmv

Carbon dioxide levels have followed temperature changes to a striking degree, as shown in Figure 1.1 Before industrialization, changes in global temperature always preceded changes in carbon dioxide levels. Small oscillations in our planet’s orbit altered the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth’s surface, sometimes resulting in a small amount of warming. This warming caused the oceans and melting Arctic bogs to release carbon dioxide 1

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

into the atmosphere. Since carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, increasing its concentration in the atmosphere caused additional warming, releasing more carbon dioxide and creating a positive feedback cycle. This warming cycle continued until a large enough orbital oscillation caused the cycle to proceed in the opposite direction: less solar radiation reaching the surface caused a small amount of cooling, which caused oceans and bogs to capture carbon dioxide and led to more cooling. Other greenhouse gases, notably methane, contributed to these warming and cooling cycles in a similar fashion to carbon dioxide. The fluctuations in global average temperature were small, but the effects were pronounced. We call the cool periods ice ages.2 In the 4 human lifetimes since the invention of the steam engine, humans have raised the carbon dioxide level from 280 ppmv to 395 ppmv (as of November 2013) by burning fossil fuels for energy and engaging in manufacturing processes that release carbon dioxide, especially the production of cement.3 Carbon dioxide levels have not been this elevated for at least 3 million years.4 The anthropogenic increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels has not occurred according to historical precedent (i.e., following an increase in surface radiation from orbital fluctuations), but there is near unanimous consensus in the global community of climate scientists that similar warming will occur.5 The Earth has already warmed 0.74°C in the past century and is warming at an increasing rate.6 This warming has had, and will continue to have, negative consequences for the health and diversity of Earth’s biological systems, and for the robustness of human health, agricultural, travel, and economic systems.7 How much more carbon dioxide can we dump into our atmosphere before the harm from global warming outweighs the positive economic outcomes of burning fossil fuels? The United Nations Climate Change Conference has agreed that warming should be limited to no more than 2°C. Limiting carbon emissions to 450 ppmv would result in a 50% chance of meeting this 2°C goal.8 2

A QUICK PRIMER ON GLOBAL WARMING

300

BEHAVIORALLY MODERN HUMANS AGRICULTURE

ANATOMICALLY MODERN HUMANS

395 ppmv

0

260

-2 240

-4

220

-6

200 180

-8 400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM PRESENT (ยบC)

+2

280 CO2 (ppmv)

+4

-10

YEARS BEFORE PRESENT

Figure 1.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration vs. temperature for the last 420,000 years, as measured from Vostok ice core samples.9

3

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

To summarise: we were historically at 280 ppmv, we have raised this level to 395 ppmv, and 450 ppmv is the limit where most climate advocates are telling world governments we have to stop.

INADEQUACY

Modest examination reveals the 450 ppmv target to be short-sighted and inadequate. Firstly, our current paradigm by which carbon emissions are gradually and incrementally reduced towards zero almost guarantees we will overshoot this target. Members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have studied global warming scenarios with different maximum concentrations of carbon dioxide corresponding to different radiative forcings (radiative forcings are a proxy for temperature increase). The Category I scenarios from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report are no longer possible since we have already exceeded the maximum carbon dioxide levels they allow. The Category II and III scenarios are unlikely to occur because they require annual carbon dioxide emissions to peak before 2020 and 2030, respectively, but annual carbon emissions have been continuously accelerating since records have been kept.10 The majority of mitigation scenarios in the IPCC’s portfolio have maximum carbon dioxide levels between 485 and 570 ppmv, meaning the climate scientists who study how we’re going to limit our carbon emissions don’t think we can stop before we get above 450 ppmv.

Secondly, Marten Scheffer11 and Stephen Schneider,12 among others, have shown there is a small but significant chance that global warming will cause: • cessation of the Gulf Stream ocean current that warms Northern Europe • runaway melting of polar ice sheets greatly exceeding the melting that is currently forecast • rapid desertification of currently forested areas such as the Amazon basin, North American boreal forest and Eurasian taiga, South and Central Africa, South Asia, and Australia.

4

A QUICK PRIMER ON GLOBAL WARMING

MITIGATION SCENARIO CATEGORY

ADDITIONAL RADIATIVE FORCING [W/m2]

CO2 CONCENTRATION [ppmv]

PEAKING YEAR FOR CO2 EMISSIONS

NUMBER OF SCENARIOS STUDIED

I

2.5-3.0

350-400

2000-2015

6

Table 1.

II

3.0-3.5

400-440

2000-2020

18

III

3.5-4.0

440-485

2010-2030

21

IV

4.0-5.0

485-570

2020-2060

118

V

5.0-6.0

570-660

2050-2080

9

VI

6.0-7.5

660-790

2060-2090

5

Summary of global warming mitigation scenarios studied by members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report.13

5

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

The impact of these events do not get factored into conventional analysis of global warming but their devastating effects are reason enough to treat global warming as a serious threat. For those who doubt the possibility of such rapid climate shifts, it is elucidating to know that the current desert state of the Sahara is just one of its possible equilibrium states; around 4000 BC, it was heavily vegetated.

Thirdly, we know from the work of Susan Solomon14 that global warming has a characteristic of irreversibility in the short and medium term, due to the long term stability of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere: even if humans today stop emitting carbon dioxide, atmospheric levels will stay high for centuries. Those alive today are dealing the hand for our progeny centuries into the future in a way that no other cohort of humans has ever had the capability to do. Limiting the focus of the effects of global warming to 2100, as is typical for most current analyses, is completely inadequate. We must think longer term.

WATERWORLD

Once we raise our gaze further into the future, the dimness of our current forecasts grows much darker. James Hansen has found that large scale polar glaciation did not begin on Earth until atmospheric carbon dioxide levels dropped below 425 ppmv, meaning that if atmospheric carbon dioxide levels stay above that level for too long, we will experience large-scale melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. At current emissions rates, we will exceed 425 ppmv in about fifteen years. Hansen’s research does not suggest that the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica will melt in fifteen years, but it does suggest that fifteen years from now we will guarantee that situation for our progeny about a millennium in the future.

Greenland’s ice sheet is equivalent to 7m of global sea level rise, while Antarctica melting would cause about 61m of sea level rise.15 After factoring in a few metres of sea level rise for the thermal expansion of ocean water, an ice-free Earth would have a sea level approximately 70m higher than what exists today. This flooding would eliminate nearly the entire nation of Bangladesh and much of the 6

A QUICK PRIMER ON GLOBAL WARMING

2% ANNUAL EMISSIONS GROWTH 1200

1200

CO2 (ppmv)

1000 ZERO EMISSIONS AFTER PEAKS 800

850 750 650

600

400

550 450 PREINDUSTRIAL LEVELS

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

3000

YEAR

Figure 2.

Falloff of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations following zero emissions after various peak levels reached.16

7

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

eastern seaboards of China and North America, and would destroy the economic and cultural wealth of nearly every coastal city on Earth. Artifacts, monuments, and buildings that have lasted more than one thousand years and could, without interference, last thousands more—including, notably, the Pyramids of Giza, the last remaining wonder of the ancient world—now have a historically short countdown clock because of our actions today.

SAFETY

Hansen has determined that a safe level of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere is not 450 ppmv as proposed by the IPCC; rather, he believes we should focus on 350 ppmv as an interim goal, with a more permanent target level of 325 ppmv, if we want to avoid serious long term climatic consequences.17 Unfortunately, humanity elevated the carbon dioxide levels in our atmosphere past 350 ppmv in 1988 and past 325 ppmv in 1969.18 Humanity’s relationship to carbon dioxide is not simply a question of how much more we can safely emit, but rather how quickly we can reverse the ecological impact of our experiment with fossil fueled industrialization. We are at least twenty-five years too late in answering the question of how much more carbon dioxide we can emit. The answer is none.

8

A QUICK PRIMER ON GLOBAL WARMING

400

PARTS PER MILLION (ppm)

380

3.0

2.5

UNSAFE

2.0 360 CO2 GROWTH RATE 340

1.5

1.0

PLANETARY ENERGY BALANCE

PARTS PER MILLION PER YEAR (ppmv/a)

CO2 LEVEL

0.5

320

RESTORE SEA ICE 0.0 1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

YEAR

Figure 3.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and concentration growth rate, measurements from Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii.19

9

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

Figure 4.

Northern Europe with 60 m of sea level rise.20

Figure 5.

India, Bangladesh, and Myanmar with 60 m of sea level rise.

Figure 6.

China, Korea, and Japan with 60 m of sea level rise.

Figure 7.

The Pyramids of Giza with 60 m of sea level rise.

10

CHAPTER 2

THE CARBON MIGRATION

This thesis posits what would happen if we address global warming with action commensurate to the problem it represents for humanity. It is evident that we must completely eliminate carbon dioxide emissions in a very short period of time while simultaneously embarking upon a massive global reforestation campaign to pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere in a safe manner.

The most efficient way to reduce carbon emissions is to tax them,1 so I propose a hypothetical situation in which carbon dioxide emissions become taxed globally starting in 2015. The global carbon tax will be increased at such a rate that by 2020, burning fossil fuels for energy or emitting carbon dioxide from an industrial process will be financially unfeasible for any individual, business, institution, or government.

The first effect of eliminating fossil fuels is that the world’s nations will experience a short term global energy shortage. Fossil fuels represent about 86% of the world’s current energy sources,2 and it is unlikely that more than a few percent of these lost energy supplies can be replaced by non-fossil sources within a few years. Nuclear power plants take at least three and a half years to construct and 11

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

require extensive environmental reviews beforehand,3 and the global potential capacity of hydroelectricity is at best about 10% of current energy consumption.4 Non-hydro renewable sources such as solar and wind are currently growing at rapid rates, but their total contribution to world energy consumption is so small that it is unlikely they would be able to replace more than a few percent of lost global capacity in any given year. Reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels is dependent upon large reforestation efforts, and since mature forests sequester more carbon than cut-over forests,5 we cannot simply put all of our forests into our fuel supply to replace fossil sources. Biofuels from crops, while important to replace liquid fossil fuels, have to be grown in such a way that they do not compete with food supplies. Moreover, there is not enough biofuel capacity to entirely replace petroleum: even if the entire grain supply of the United States—one of the top agricultural producers in the world—was diverted from food to biofuels, it would only meet 16% of American automobile fuel demand.6 Despite our best efforts to increase our non-fossil energy production, humanity will have to survive for a number of years on well under a fifth of its usual energy supply.

Economic prosperity as measured by gross domestic product has historically been highly dependent upon energy production. While some nations have seen GDP rise while energy production has remained constant or declined slightly—notably Japan in the early 1980s7— decoupling of energy production from economic growth is usually achieved by off-shoring energy intensive activities from one nation to another.8 This shell game of relocating energy use is not possible when energy production is globally limited. Unemployment will rise as workers in fossil fuel industries, as well as those they support with their wages, lose their jobs. The cost for nearly all goods will also spike as the cheap and abundant energy used to create and transport them becomes incredibly expensive.

The economic consequence of eliminating fossil fuels is therefore an immediate and severe global recession characterized by stagflation.

12

100

$6000

HYDRO

$4000 NAT. GAS

$3000

DP

PER

CA PIT A

$5000

OIL

$2000

OB GL

COAL

$1000

BIOFUELS

0 1760

Figure 8.

1800 1780

1840 1820

1880 1860

1920 1900

1960 1940

2000 1980

Global energy production vs. global GDP per capita since the Industrial Revolution.9

13

$0

GLOBAL GDP PER CAPITA (1990 US DOLLARS)

200

NUCLEAR

AL G

300

SECOND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

400

FIRST INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

500

$7000

BESSEMER STEEL

600

WATT STEAM ENGINE

GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION (EXAJOULES PER YEAR)

THE CARBON MIGRATION

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

CARTOGRAPHY

Canada’s diversity of energy sources is similar to the global average. Despite its nuclear program and vast hydroelectric resources, only 13% of Canada’s energy comes from non-fossil sources.10 The elimination of fossil fuels will therefore throw Canada into the global energy recession, but this economic decline will not affect all parts of the country equally. The differing extent to which the provinces currently rely upon fossil fuels will draw a new economic map across Canada following the implementation of a carbon tax. Economically-induced migrations across the country will result from this new economic situation as people move from economically depressed and energy intensive parts of the country to less energy intensive areas. While there is precedent for economic migrations in Canada’s recent past—such as the ongoing movement of Atlantic Canadians to Western Canada seeking employment opportunities—carbon migrants will move in larger numbers and much more rapidly than at any time since the Okies of the Dust Bowl.

14

THE CARBON MIGRATION

NATURAL GAS 32%

SOLAR, WIND, TIDAL <1% COAL 9%

NUCLEAR 2%

NON-FOSSIL 13%

HYDROELECTRICITY 8%

PETROLEUM 45%

Figure 9.

BIOMASS 3%

Canadian energy production by source.11

AGRICULTURE 3% AGRICULTURE 3%

FREIGHT VEHICLES 12%

RESIDENTIAL 16% SPACE HEATING 10% HOT WATER 3% MAJOR APPLICANCES 1% OTHER APPLIANCES 1% LIGHTING 1% SPACE COOLING <1%

MARINE 1% OFF ROAD 1% RAIL 1% AIR FREIGHT <1% HEAVY TRUCKS 6% MEDIUM TRUCKS 2% LIGHT TRUCKS 2%

PASSENGER VEHICLES 17%

SPACE HEATING 6% WATER HEATING 1% EQUIPMENT 2% MOTORS 1% LIGHTING 1% SPACE COOLING 1% STREET LIGHTING <1%

AIRPLANES 3% BUSES 1% MOTORCYCLES <1% TRUCKS 6% CARS 7%

COMMERCIAL & INSTITUTIONAL 13%

CONSTRUCTION 1% FORESTRY <1% MANUFACTURING 6% PETROLEUM REFINING 4% CHEMICALS 3% CEMENT 1%

MINING 12% PULP AND PAPER 7% IRON AND STEEL 2% SMELTING AND REFINING 3%

INDUSTRIAL 40%

Figure 10.

Canadian energy consumption by end use.12

15

16

 directly from fossil fuel companies  indirectly supported by these industries—as in welders being hired by an oil company to construct a pipeline  induced by the spending of these first two groups—as in a clothing store patronized by oil

Nearly all workers in the Western World rely upon cheap and abundant energy, from the technician who runs an MRI machine to the receptionist who schedules appointments with a computer. Employers everywhere will have to pay increasing amounts for energy during the global energy shortage, or else alter their business practices to use less energy. The global energy shortage will be debilitating for nearly all businesses, and this effect will be felt uniformly across Canada.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland, however, have large percentages of jobs dependent not just upon energy, but upon fossil fuel industries. These jobs come from three sources:

EMPLOYMENT

Since these jobs cannot be saved by substituting fossil fuels for carbon-free energy, nearly all of these jobs will be eliminated by the carbon tax. Thirty-seven percent of Alberta’s employment is tied to the fossil fuel industry, meaning it will be the province that sinks deepest into the post-carbon recession.13 Provinces with relatively few people employed by fossil fuel industries will be dealt less of a blow and will attract carbon migrants.

industry employees.

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

NON-OIL/GAS EMPLOYMENT

17

INDUCED OIL/GAS EMPLOYMENT

INDIRECT OIL/GAS EMPLOYMENT

DIRECT OIL/GAS EMPLOYMENT

Figure 11.

Share of provincial jobs supported by fossil fuel industries.

THE CARBON MIGRATION

Government revenue is a measure of a province’s ability to provide services such as healthcare and the construction and maintenance of infrastructure.

Newfoundland, Alberta, and Saskatchewan receive the largest share of their government revenue from these sources and will thus be most incapacitated by the carbon recession.

It should be noted that while less than 7% of Newfoundland’s jobs are dependent upon fossil fuel industries, over 30% of its government revenue comes from these sources. Newfoundland will be the province in the most difficult deficit position following the carbon recession, but this mismatch between fossil fuel employment and tax revenue is not unusual. The lucrative tax potential of oil and gas means that nearly all provinces have a higher percentage of government revenue coming from fossil fuel industries than the percentage of people employed in these industries.

Alberta is the outstanding exception to this rule, collecting far less provincial tax revenue from fossil

REVENUE

fuels than its employment numbers would suggest.

Alberta will not lose as much government revenue as one might expect following the loss of its fossil fuel industries, but this is only because it appears that the province is not currently collecting taxes and royalties commensurate to its vast oil and coal wealth.14 Alberta is, in effect, handing out its provincial natural resources for a meager return.

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

18

NON-OIL AND GAS TAX REVENUE

OIL AND GAS TAX REVENUE

Figure 12.

Share of government revenue from fossil fuel industries.

THE CARBON MIGRATION

19

Following the elimination of fossil fuels, all energy must come from electrical generation or the burning of biomass. Non-fossil electrical resources, especially those already in operation, will be great sources of wealth as they can be used to fuel industry or can be sold directly for a profit. Canadaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s electricity is provided almost entirely by provincial utilities rather than private companies, meaning that electricity wealth will be divided along provincial lines.

British Columbia and Ontario get more than 80% of their electricity from non-fossil sources, while in Newfoundland, Quebec, and Manitoba that proportion exceeds 90%. The Maritimes and Saskatchewan, however, get the majority of their electricity from coal and natural gas. Alberta gets only 4% of its electricity from non-fossil sources, relying heavily upon coal.

Without fossil fuels, Alberta will become a massive energy importer rather than the global energy exporter that it is today.15

ELECTRICITY

HOUSING CANADAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S CARBON MIGRANTS

20

FOSSIL FUEL ELECTRICTY

NON-FOSSIL FUEL ELECTRICITY

Figure 13.

Share of electricity production from fossil and non-fossil sources.

THE CARBON MIGRATION

21

22 13,000

Canada has cold winters. Even with the climate warming, the average Canadian home requires substantial energy inputs to maintain a healthy temperature. The heating degree day requirements of a region will influence cost of living to a much greater extent in a post-carbon society than they do now. Colder areas of the country will therefore lose population as energy prices rise, while warmer areas will attract carbon migrants.

Most people in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba live in areas requiring more than 5000 heating degree days per year. Very few densely settled areas and only one major metropolitan area in the other provinces—Thunder Bay—lie in areas this cold. 16 There are a few places in Canada, notably Southwestern British Columbia, where winter can be tolerated in existing buildings without heating,17 and these will become destinations for carbon migrants seeking to reduce their cost of living.

HEATING

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

23

50+ PEOPLE/KM

3000

2

3000

4000

4000

4000

5000

5000

6000

10-49.9 PEOPLE/KM

2

ANNUAL HEATING DEGREE DAYS

6000

7000

8000

10,000

9000

11,000

7000

8000

12,000

12,000

6000

9000

7000

8000

5000

4000

10,000

11,000

6000

Figure 14.

5000

5000

Heating requirements for the population of Canada.

THE CARBON MIGRATION

There are only 5 cities in Canada with a walk score higher than 70—Vancouver, Victoria, Toronto, Halifax, and Montreal, not including their suburbs—meaning it is easy to get around in these cities on foot, bicycle, and transit and to live without a car.18 Car dependence will be devastating for the majority of municipalities because there will not be enough energy following the elimination of fossil fuels to power a national fleet of electric cars. Cars use energy flagrantly: the fully electric Nissan Leaf uses almost twice the electricity that a Canadian uses in a day19 for a charge worth only 120 km.20 The inefficiency of cars plays out at the national level as Canadians currently use about 13% of total energy to gas up passenger cars and trucks, an amount of energy equivalent to all of Canada’s non-fossil energy production. Without fossil fuels, personal automobile use will end as a daily mode of transportation. Communities reliant upon cars for commuting and shopping will have to rapidly change their built environment or their residents will be forced

WALKABILITY

to move.

The upside of the end of mass automobility is that nearly 30 million obsolete gas-powered vehicles will provide a ready source of steel with which to kick-start a post-carbon economy with material inputs based upon recycling.21

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

24

25

50+ PEOPLE/KM2

2

1

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3

5

Figure 15.

4

The five most walkable cities in Canada, as measured by Walk Score.

THE CARBON MIGRATION

RULES OF MIGRATIONS

Human migrations have occurred often enough that distinct patterns have been identified. Ernest Ravenstein’s “Laws of Migration” from 1885 famously determined that migrations can be caused by negative conditions “pushing” people away from areas of dispersion or positive conditions “pulling” them

ALBERTA

Eliminating carbon will abruptly shut down Alberta’s largest industry while simultaneously rendering much of its electrical and transit infrastructure useless. Its government will lose 30% of its operating revenue,25 not counting the decrease in tax revenue from businesses and individuals that occur during a recession. It will be

 flooding from Hurricane Katrina caused New Orlean’s population to shrink by 23%22  the failure of Midwest manufacturing caused Detroit’s population to shrink by 25%23  the drought-induced Dust Bowl of the 1930s caused the affected U.S. Plains States to lose 25% of their population.24

forced to either drastically cut services or implement the sales taxes, capital taxes, payroll taxes, and healthcare premiums that it currently eschews.26 All of these changes will erode the economic advantage that Alberta currently uses to attract citizens. Furthermore, Alberta is home to some of Canada’s coldest, most car-dependent cities and towns, meaning day-to-day life will be costly and difficult for people living there, even if they have jobs. Considering all of these factors, it is reasonable to assume that at least one quarter of Albertans will migrate between 2015 and 2025, meaning over 900,000 people will leave the province.

North America has experienced rapid human migrations in the past century, whether from the collapse of a critical industry or a weather-induced infrastructural collapse. Within a decade or less:

MIGRATION HISTORICAL PRECEDENT

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

26

50+ PEOPLE/KM2

27

ANTICIPATED MIGRATION PATH

10-49.9 PEOPLE/KM2

Figure 16.

Predicted population movement of the Canadian carbon migration.

THE CARBON MIGRATION

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

toward areas of absorption. The profound insight of Ravenstein’s work, however, was that both dispersion and absorption centres developed regardless of the instigating force. Migrants are not pulled uniformly to centres of absorption, nor are they dispersed uniformly across a landscape; instead, migrants tend to move from distinct centre(s) to distinct centre(s).27 Ravenstein additionally identified the following general rules that are applicable to Canada’s carbon migration: 1) Migrants moving long distances generally go to one of the great centres of commerce or industry.

Canada’s trend toward urbanization over the last century will be greatly accelerated by the carbon migration. Urban centres not only provide economic opportunities, but their densities allow people to live without a car, a very attractive feature in the post-carbon context of expensive energy.

2) Most migrants only move a short distance.

Migrants from Alberta will look to move to the closest area that they deem to have favourable conditions. The provincial division of electrical utilities and government services likely mean that no place within Alberta will become an absorption centre, even if the largest dispersion centres are adjacent to areas of fossil fuel production.

Saskatchewan, while not dependent upon fossil fuels to the same extent as Alberta, will also be a dispersion area.

Albertans are therefore most likely to move to locations in British Columbia or Manitoba.

3) Migrants fill the gaps previously vacated by other migrants.

People living close to an absorption city, in its suburbs or neighbouring communities, will be the first to move toward the city centre, which acts as the core of absorption. Migrants coming from farther away will be forced to accept the homes that have been vacated by the first wave of migrants. Knowing this, and knowing that the urban characteristics most beneficial to carbon migrants—such as transit and walkable neighbourhoods 28

THE CARBON MIGRATION

MIGRATION HIGHLIGHT

THE MAGDALEN ISLANDS Located 230 km southeast of the Gaspe Peninsula in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, the Magdalen Islands is the largest community in Quebec not tied to the North American power grid. Its 13,000 residents are served entirely by diesel power.28 Following the implementation of the carbon elimination tax, there will be a race to supply electricity to the islands before diesel becomes too expensive and the islands go dark. Three possible outcomes are foreseeable: 1.

2.

3.

An underwater cable is laid from Prince Edward Island to connect the Magdalen Islands to the continental grid. Electricity is exported from Quebec to the Magdalen Islands through New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island.29 Hydro Quebec capitalizes on the excellent wind conditions of the Gulf of Saint Lawrence to supply the Magdalen Islands with non-fossil electricity.

Unfortunately, regulatory approval for such projects currently takes 36 months.30 Neither of the first two outcomes occur quickly enough and the islands depopulate, with most

TO MONTREAL DOMINANT MIGRANT PATH

TO CO H ND ALIF A R AX Y PA TH

87 km CABLE

TO ST. JOHN â&#x20AC;&#x2122;S TERTIARY P ATH

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Figure 17.

Migration paths from the Magdalen Islands in the Gulf of Saint Lawrence.

29

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

close to employment centres—are best provided by urban cores, absorption cities should expect their suburbs to swell in population while the suburbs of dispersion centres experience the most dramatic population declines.

4) Females are more migratory than males within their own country.

Given that women are not structurally impeded from economic independence as they were in the 19th century when this law was discovered, this phenomenon will no doubt have strengthened.

5) Families are less likely to move long distances than young adults.

This finding is not surprising given that parents are more rooted to their locations than younger adults by career seniority, property ownership, and community ties. The physical and emotional difficulty of moving with children is also a factor in this principle.

6) Every migration produces a counter-current.

The most likely reason for people to move away from urban centres towards rural areas in a post-carbon context is to farm. A shift towards a larger percentage of the workforce being engaged in agriculture will be discussed in the appendices of this thesis.

METROPOLITAN VANCOUVER

Greater Vancouver possesses numerous traits that mitigate the challenges imposed by carbon elimination and is strongly positioned to become an absorption centre for receiving carbon migrants. Metro Vancouver is:  a heavily urbanized economic hub, relatively independent of fossil fuel industries  home to an international port  supplied by one of the least carbon-intensive electrical utilities in Canada31  the second-warmest city in the country, behind Chilliwack32  in possession of highly developed transit 30

THE CARBON MIGRATION

MIGRATION HIGHLIGHT

NUNAVUT Post-carbon Nunavut will face the most challenging energy shortage of any province or territory in Canada.

Currently, twenty-five of the territory’s twenty-six inhabited communities are electrified, with power coming exclusively from diesel generators. All of these electricity grids are independent: they do not connect with each other or to the North American grid.33 There are plans for hydroelectric stations at Jaynes Inlet and Armshow South to supply Iqaluit with electricity, with construction completion estimated for 2018 and 2035, respectively.34 The Armshow South dam could be fasttracked so that both projects are completed before 2020, but the only other non-fossil project in the territory is a wind feasibility study for Cape Dorset.35 If no other hydro or wind generation can be brought online before 2020, Nunavut’s population must either collapse into the Iqaluit region, leave the territory, or embrace a traditional Inuit lifestyle practiced in communities such as Umingmaktok.

GRISE FIORD

RESOLUTE ARCTIC BAY

CAMBRIDGE BAY

CLYDE RIVER TALOYOAK

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Figure 18.

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500 km

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Communities, and electricity grids, of Nunavut.

31

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

infrastructure  home to the 1st, 6th, 10th, and 15th most walkable cities in Canada (Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond, and Surrey).36 Only Vancouver is deemed easy to live in without a car, but any reduction in car dependency is attractive.  the closest major metropolitan area to any Albertan city  already the most population destination for people moving out of Alberta.37 Vancouver is home to a number of regional headquarters for mining and resource extraction companies, companies that will be negatively affected due to their energy intensity; however, the diversity of the overall economy should make it possible to weather these losses at least as well as any other city in Canada. Overall, Metro Vancouver is the most likely destination for Albertan carbon migrants and is therefore likely to become one of the largest absorption centres in the country.

I estimate that in the decade following the implementation of a carbon tax (2015 to 2025), at least one million carbon migrants will move to Metro Vancouver. The majority of this population will be formed by the 900,000 people leaving Alberta, but a substantial number will also come from smaller cities and suburbs within British Columbia itself. The elimination of carbon will make all car-based living less attractive, and this will generate a significant number of migrants whose only motivation for moving is to seek urban housing.

The settlement of migrants will not be evenly distributed amongst Metro Vancouver’s municipalities.

There is a distinct possibility that a seismic or extreme weather event will occur in Metro Vancouver in the coming years which will have devastating effects on Richmond and Delta. Soil liquefaction due to an earthquake could cause massive building failure, while a tsunami from an earthquake could breach the city’s protective dikes and cause massive flooding. A mega-quake inducing both outcomes would likely cause destruction in these two 32

THE CARBON MIGRATION

MIGRATION HIGHLIGHT

YUKON AND NORTHWEST TERRITORIES The power grids of Yukon and Northwest Territories are not connected to the North American grid, and much of their electricity comes from hydro. Even if mining operations and smaller diesel-dependent communities within the territories are connected to these grids before 2020, the overall demand on the existing hydro grid will likely be lower than most places in North America.

Unlike hydro-rich Canadian utilities connected to the continental grid—such as Hydro Quebec—Yukon Energy and Northwest Territories Power Corporation will not be able to sell their electricity to energy-starved utilities and industries in Alberta or the United States. They will only have to serve local demand. The hydro communities of the North could potentially experience the lowest and most stable electricity prices in North America, which could offset the costs from having most food and goods shipped from south of the 60th parallel. While the northern portions of Canada’s provinces will almost certainly see rapid population decline during the carbon migration, Yukon and Northwest Territories may remain stable in terms of total population and only experience internal migration to hydro communities.

YELLOWKNIFE WHITEHORSE

Figure 19.

Hydro (white) and diesel communities (black) of Yukon and Northwest Territories, and schematic continental grid below.38

33

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

communities on par with Hurricane Katrina’s effects in New Orleans.39 Forward-thinking planning would seek to divert much of the post-carbon growth away from these municipalities.

Vancouver and Burnaby both possess highly developed transit infrastructure and will be the most attractive places for carbon migrants to settle. Their attractiveness is due, however, to being highly built out at their cores, so much of the development will occur in areas with suburban character, such as much of Vancouver south of 16th Avenue, and Burnaby away from its nodes of development along the Millennium SkyTrain line. Coquitlam and Port Moody both possess low population densities and proximity to transit infrastructure that will allow them to absorb large numbers of carbon migrants.

Communities distant from downtown Vancouver, such as Belcarra, Anmore, Fort Langley, and Aldergrove, will likely experience declines in population, even as the region explodes in growth, due to their high reliance on cars.

Surrey, the region’s second most populous city, is a chimera. Its proximity to Vancouver and easily developable farmland made it a natural bedroom community after World War II, conforming to North American suburban typologies. Its large land area, nearly three times that of Vancouver, provided room for continued suburban development during the city’s rapid growth since the 1980s.

At the same time, highly developed transit infrastructure and urban planning have spread from Vancouver into Surrey. The city possesses nodes of high density near sprawling areas of single family homes, often with little mediation between the two. For these reasons it has been selected as the site for the design component of this thesis, and will be explored further in the next chapter.

34

CHAPTER 3

NEWTON INDUSTRIAL PARK

Independent of the carbon migration, Surrey anticipates sustained population growth over the next 50 years. As long as its abundant farmland remains protected under the provincial Agricultural Land Reserve, this growth must come from transformation of its existing fabric, as nearly all possible greenfield development has already occurred.

Plans to guide Surreyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s growth from 2011 to 2061 follow New Urbanism principles to sensitively densify the city along arterial roads, transit corridors, and transit nodes, while keeping the majority of the suburban fabric intact.1 Following the implementation of the carbon tax in 2015, intelligent developers will realize that construction will only become more expensive in the future as the tax increases. Speculative development will ensue, causing a massive building boom that will accomplish much of Surreyâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s 50 year anticipated growth in only 5.

King George Boulevard, a major north-south corridor, will likely be one of the hottest sites of this speculative development. It possesses bus rapid transit connecting the hub of Newton Town Centre to the regional SkyTrain network, and this bus line is slated for transformation to a higher capacity light rail or expansion to the city of White 35

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

Rock.2 The bus loop at King George Boulevard and 72nd Avenue will likely expand to a fully fledged transit station that will act as a hub for local buses. Easily developable sites such as strip malls, mobile home parks, and warehouses border the corridor. The corridors of 72nd Avenue and Scott Road to the south and west of King George Boulevard will be developed in similar fashion, with the Strawberry Hill Shopping Mall and bus loop transforming into a high density, transit-oriented development.

Growth in the five years following the implementation of the carbon tax will proceed according to Surrey’s current plans for growth, albeit at a much more rapid rate, and will likely meet initial housing demand caused by the flood of carbon migrants.

UNANTICIPATED GROWTH

By 2020, after the carbon tax is in full effect and fossil fuel use has been eliminated, the continued stream of carbon migrants will overwhelm the capacity of planned growth along Surrey’s corridors and at transit nodes.

Large, easily developed commercial sites will already have undergone rejuvenation, and houses will be so valuable to their residents that piecing together enough suburban lots for a large development will be difficult and rare. A new development paradigm will be needed.

Industrial parks are one source of housing sites that will likely remain untapped by traditional corridorfocused development because these parks are designed to be isolated from other parts of the city. Spatial separation, however, is dependent upon abundant and readily deployable energy which will no longer exist in the postcarbon era. Developing industrial parks for mixed use will rejuvenate their industrial functions by embedding a permanent population of employees and customers within them. New housing sites in these parks will help alleviate the massive demand for housing in the region, but in a way that does not convert industrial lands to residential use in a wholesale manner. Since surface parking can be almost entirely eliminated—as the few passenger and freight vehicles in use can be easily accommodated on the street— the amount of land actually dedicated to industrial use 36

NEWTON INDUSTRIAL PARK

SC SC SCOTT SCO CO OT TT T RD RD

KIN KI KIN KING NG G GEORGE EO EO EOR OR RGE GE BLV BL B BLVD LV VD

TH 88 8 8TH AV A AVE VE

ND 72ND 72 AVE AV VE

Figure 20.

Areas of rapid redevelopment along Newton’s traffic corridors, 20152020.

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HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

may not decrease despite the addition of housing. Surrey’s employment lands strategy, which seeks to avoid the loss of industrial lands to residential gentrification,3 can be adhered to while redeveloping industrial parks.

Removing the programmatic separation between industrial and residential areas will provide the additional benefits of improving environmental performance of the industrial facilities and quality of life for workers.

Distantly located factories can potentially escape environmental regulation since they are only monitored sporadically. Factories in mixed use areas will not be able to hide pollution easily because residents will act as de facto environmental regulators in order to maintain their own property values. Residents may not experience direct benefits from their adjacency to industrial sites, but they will gain an implicit awareness of how dependent we are upon industrial production to maintain our way of life.

Workers, many of whom may live close to the factories, will experience a tremendous benefit, as they will no longer have to tolerate patterns of daily existence that stringently separate work from the rest of their lives. They will be able to pick up a fresh sandwich from a local deli on their lunch break, easily run errands on their walk home, and even see their children during the workday.

NEWTON INDUSTRIAL PARK

The Newton Industrial Park, located northwest of Newton Town Centre, is highly susceptible to decline in the postcarbon era as customers and shipments of goods will no longer be able to easily access its businesses. Roughly bounded by 88th Avenue to the north, 72nd Avenue to the south, King George Boulevard to the east, and Scott Road to the west, the archetypal urban industrial park is characterized by large streets, abundant surface parking, and quickly constructed strip mall buildings. Nearly all of its businesses and most of its infrastructure are built to serve people travelling by car. Bus service is infrequent and limited to arterial roads. Civic buildings, especially in the core of the park, are limited. A downturn in profitability and land value is likely to occur even as the value of nearby suburban neighbourhoods skyrocket due to Surrey’s 38

NEWTON INDUSTRIAL PARK

TH 84TH 84 AV A AVE VE VE

ND 113 132 32ND 32 ST ST

TH 128 12 128 28TH ST S T

SER S SE E ERPENTINE RPEN ENTI TIN T NE GREENWAY GREE EE E EN NWA W Y WA

TH 80TH 80 AV A AVE V VE E

TH 76TH 76 AV A AVE VE VE

Figure 21.

Newton Industrial Park.

39

HOUSING CANADAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S CARBON MIGRANTS

swelling population.

The park possesses a hidden asset in the Southern Railway of British Columbia, a freight rail line that bisects the park on a southeast-northwest diagonal. The line currently has a few spurs that extend into the park but its overall integration with the park is limited. Rail shipments use less than 10% of the energy of truck transport,4 so extending the network of rail spurs to access all parts of the industrial park will attract businesses by offering them a huge competitive advantage over sites dependent upon trucks.

The rail line can reactivate the park in a second way if passenger service is reinstated. From 1910 to 1950, the line was used by the British Columbia Electric Railway for interurban service between New Westminster and Chilliwack. Reactivating passenger service will be necessary in order to provide a direct rail connection between Metro Vancouver and the agricultural hubs of Abbotsford and Chilliwack, which are otherwise only linked circuitously. Integration with regional transit can be made by connecting the new passenger line to the SkyTrain network at Scott Road Station.5 Placing a station at the heart of the Newton Industrial Park at 130th Street and 78A Avenue will make the park highly desirable because a transit connection will be the only affordable way for people to commute and explore the region beyond the distances they can walk and bicycle.

From a political perspective, passenger reactivation will be easy to achieve because the government is still in possession of the right-of-way used by the line. After the collapse of the BC Electric Railway following World War II, the rail line was taken over by BC Hydro, a provincial Crown corporation. The line was sold to Southern Railway for freight service in 1989, but BC Hydro maintained ownership of the right-of-way.

WASTE HEAT

The employers that move into the revitalized Newton Industrial Park will feature a greater proportion of heavy industry and energy-intensive light industry than before the carbon migration. Offshoring of material production 40

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Figure 22.

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The relationship of new stations (black dots) of the reactivated British Columbia Electric Railway to regional population density.

NEWTON INDUSTRIAL PARK

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

and manufacturing will be far less viable since offshoring is dependent upon cheap shipping to move raw goods to factories and finished products to market. In the postcarbon era, shipping will be powered by wind. This does not mean that global containerized shipping will end— in fact, a revival of wind technology for global tanker shipping is already well underway6—but shipping will become slower and likely more expensive. High bulk, low value goods like furniture will be uneconomical to ship, compared to producing them locally. Goods that depend on rapid turnaround times between points of production and sale, like apparel, will also find domestic production advantageous. Materials that are crucial inputs to the economy, like recycled metals, may find a business advantage by placing themselves centrally so that transportation costs are minimized. The difficulty of having employees without cars commute to workplaces outside cities will mean that all large factories will have an impetus to relocate inside urban centres.

Industries such as metal recycling, textile dyeing, and chemical production have great potential for generating waste heat. By connecting the Newton Industrial Park’s existing parks and tree-covered lots with a network of greenways, a district energy network can be made to move waste heat around the park or store it underground.

Leaving this network undeveloped will allow easy maintenance access and provide a secondary circulation network for pedestrians and cyclists.

NET POSITIVE

At this point, a distinction should be made between architectural operating energy and process energy. As architects and observers of the built environment have commented for decades, architecture often serves as a background container for human activity, necessary but unremarkable, like the bowl required to hold soup.7 At its core, architecture is a mediator between the outside environment and our desired environment. Architecture can do much more than this, but if environmental mediation is not occurring then architecture is typically deemed to be failing. A large number of human activities 42

NEWTON INDUSTRIAL PARK

Figure 23.

Redeveloped Newton Industrial Park with industrial zones (yellow), mixed use zones (blue), and energy distribution centres.

43

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

require a very similar set of interior temperatures, humidities, ventilation rates, and lighting levels that are powered by architectural operating energy. When the exterior environment is benevolent, as during a sunny day in the warmer latitudes, little mediation between external and internal environment is necessary and architectural operating energy approaches zero. During polar night north of the Arctic Circle, operating energy is at a maximum, as it must make a frigid and dark environment bright, warm, and comfortable.

Process energy does work and is largely invariable no matter where or when the activity occurs. Process energy runs servers, powers sawmills, melts scrap steel, and freezes chicken cutlets. There are times when operating and process energy are inseparable—such as when labs and sensitive industrial processes require a very clean and precise interior atmosphere—but often the two are easily distinguished.

It will become an imperative—whether by cost, law, or moral consequence—to view energy as a tremendously valuable resource in the post-carbon era. It is difficult for most North Americans to conceive of a low energy way of life when, aside from the odd power outage from storms, we have had constant, plentiful energy for generations.

The oil shocks of the 1970s will not compare to the deficit we will face in the first years of the post-carbon era, where energy will be treated like food in a famine. All buildings of the post-carbon era must be designed to consume as little energy as possible and produce as much energy as possible, with net zero consumption for architectural operating energy on an annual basis being a minimum performance target. It would be foolish and likely illegal in the postcarbon era to construct new buildings that compete for energy with the billions of square feet of existing buildings or the industries that drive our society.

Industrial buildings will not be able to supply enough energy to meet their own process needs, but it is entirely possible for most industrial buildings to supply their own operating energy. In this way, the redevelopment of the Newton Industrial Park can become a net positive venture.

44

NEWTON INDUSTRIAL PARK

CONVENTIONAL ENERGY USAGE

WASTE HEAT DEPENDENCY

NEWTON BATHS

Figure 24.

Three different methods for societal energy usage.

45

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

Energy will be drawn from the grid to run the industrial processes, but the new buildings can be constructed to supply their own operating energy. The waste heat from the industrial processes can be moved outside the park via the district energy network to help the residents of the adjacent suburban neighbourhoods. These homes will be in high demand due to their proximity to transit along King George Boulevard and the revived BC Electric Railway, but their 1980 to 2010 construction era means that they will be starving for energy. Unless their owners are able to invest in a substantial photovoltaic or solar thermal array—a difficult proposition during a massive recession—heating and hot water will be too costly for daily use. A typical family will likely only be able to afford their refrigerator, selected high efficiency electronics, and a few lights at night.

Ideally, the industrial park’s district energy network would supply heat directly to nearby suburban homes, but the low density of these makes direct connection economically unfeasible.8 Instead, heat energy must be taken from the district energy network and used at concentrated sites for an activity that is typically domestic but can be performed outside the home.

PUBLIC BATHS

One such activity that can be performed outside the home is bathing. Domestic hot water is the second largest use of residential energy, currently consuming 3% of Canada’s energy. Because that amount of energy is so large, we will not be able to meet that demand as a society in the first years of the post-carbon era. Bathing is a tremendously valuable societal activity from the perspectives of both public health and social cohesion. Moreover, the psychological value of being warmed daily by a shower or bath will have a much greater value when homes will not have space heating.9 Public baths have a long history across numerous cultures and inevitably become civic loci that tie communities together. The revitalization of the Newton Industrial Park will therefore be energetically and socially net positive by providing the process energy for a network of public baths.

The baths should be combined with housing to add vitality 46

NEWTON INDUSTRIAL PARK

66%

2%

Figure 25.

16%

2%

4%

2%

3%

2%

2%

1%

Canadian single family home energy consumption.10

47

HOUSING CANADAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S CARBON MIGRANTS

to their neighbourhoods and respond to the pressing need for housing in Surrey in 2020. The design of one such baths complex will be detailed in the remainder of this work.

48

CHAPTER 4

MATERIAL CONSTRAINTS

The design of the Newton Baths is inextricably tied to the challenges of constructing a building in a post-carbon context. Architectural materials are currently dependent upon carbon emissions in two ways: ď&#x201A;§ embodied energy fossil fuels are currently used to extract raw materials, refine them into consumer products, and ship these products to market ď&#x201A;§ chemical dependence some materials release carbon dioxide during their manufacture, no matter what energy source is used EMBODIED ENERGY

Large amounts of energy are currently used to produce and transport architectural materials. The inexpensive energy of the fossil fuel era means this energy rarely represents more than a third of material costs, but in the post-carbon era energy will likely comprise the bulk of final costs.

The energy crisis that opens the post-carbon era will likely only produce incremental changes to the efficiency of material production, rather than drastic 49

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

improvements. Industries consume far more energy than individual households, meaning they have always had greater impetus to increase energy efficiency to maintain profitability. Even when energy has been cheap, industry has been actively increasing efficiency for the last 60 years.

Most large improvements in efficiency have already been made, so that material industries, including the steel and aluminum industries, are now facing diminishing returns in efficiency gains. It is safe to assume that the low energy materials of today will be the affordable materials of the future.

CHEMICAL DEPENDENCE

Industrial processes require lots of energy to create, shape, cut, and form building materials, but the source of this energy is usually not important. Fossil fuels are typically used today because they are cheap and abundant, but electricity could be substituted as it is the highest quality energy for mechanical processes and can generate higher, more precise temperatures than combustion of fossil fuels.

Most industrial processes can continue in a post-carbon economy, provided there is enough electricity to power them.

Some industrial processes are, however, chemically dependent upon the release of carbon dioxide:  iron for steel is made from iron ore using coke—a high carbon fuel—as a reducing agent  the final step of aluminum smelting takes place in electrochemical cells with carbon anodes that are continuously consumed by the reaction  Portland cement for concrete is made by heating ground limestone until it releases carbon dioxide and turns to lime METALS

Carbon dioxide emissions can be eliminated from the production of new steel and aluminum by using different industrial processes than those currently in place, but the energetic costs of these new processes are extremely high.

The likely consequence of eliminating carbon emissions 50

MATERIAL CONSTRAINTS

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Figure 26.

Diminishing returns in efficiency in the US steel industry.1

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Figure 27.

Diminishing returns in efficiency in the aluminum industry.2

51

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HOUSING CANADAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S CARBON MIGRANTS

is that very little new steel or aluminum will be produced in the first years of a post-carbon economy (see Appendix C for details). Steel and aluminum will, however, remain important materials in the post-carbon economy because they can be recycled without carbon emissions. Recycling can occur indefinitely with no difference in quality between recycled and new material and only small material losses during each recycling process. Recycling is much more energy efficient than new metal production and already occurs on a large scale. Nucor, the largest steelmaker in the United States, produces nearly all its steel from recycled scrap using electric arc furnaces.3 About 60% of steel production now comes from recycled scrap,4 but only 39% of aluminum comes from recycled sources.5 The recycling rates for both steel6 and aluminum7 in Canada are near 70%. If recycling rates for both metals approached 100%, a post-carbon economy could nearly meet demand for steel but would fall short in meeting demand for aluminum. Steel will therefore be much cheaper compared to aluminum.

CONCRETE

Concrete made with Portland cement cannot be made without producing large amounts of carbon dioxide and will not be used architecturally in the post-carbon economy.

PLASTICS

Polymers and other organic chemicals present society with a difficult choice. They are produced by steam cracking of hydrocarbons that is currently driven by fossil fuels but could be replaced by carbon free electricity. A small amount of carbon dioxide is chemically produced, however, as an impurity from the steam cracking process.8 A truly postcarbon society would not produce new plastics.

Complicating this position is the performance needed for buildings with net-zero operating energy. These buildings require airtightness in construction that only plastic sealants, barriers, and tapes can provide. Polymers cannot be substituted or eliminated from net-zero construction, making them more necessary as architectural 52

MATERIAL CONSTRAINTS

OTHER EQUIPMENT 0.5%

ALL OTHER CARBON DIOXIDE SOURCES 95% CEMENT 5%

FURNACE FUEL 2.0% CALCINATION 2.5% TRANSPORTATION 0.5%

Figure 28.

Global carbon dioxide emissions showing the sizeable contribution from the production of Portland cement.9

53

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

materials than concrete in a post-carbon society. Outside of architecture, plastics are also essential to our society.

They are currently often overused or needlessly used—for example, the million plastic bags that are consumed every minute globally —but in certain applications, especially in medicine, they cannot be substituted.11 A post-carbon society will likely allow different treatment of the small amount of chemically necessary carbon dioxide emissions from plastics production compared to the large amounts that result from new steel or cement. Plastics production will continue while still requiring non-fossil energy be used. Their cost will be much higher compared to today, spurring the use of substitutes where possible, but they will still be available when needed.

GUIDELINES

The construction of the Newton Baths must be guided by three principles. The first and most obvious is that construction materials must reflect the context of a massive energy shortage. Low energy materials will be the cheapest and should be selected whenever possible to reduce construction costs. Occasional use of high energy materials must be justified by increased performance or the resulting quality of architectural space. Carbondependent materials must be totally eliminated.

Secondly, the Baths must be constructed very quickly to respond to the housing shortage in Surrey and the energy crisis being experienced by nearby homeowners.

Construction of the Baths should be measured in months, not years.

Finally, the Baths must be designed with an easily adaptable structure, so that the building’s program can change in the future. Before the elimination of fossil fuels, public bathing was in steady decline as abundant energy and globally rising incomes favoured the convenience of bathing at home. The showers and baths of the Newton Baths should be viewed as a temporary lifeline to the surrounding homes whose necessity will continually diminish as energy supplies and economic conditions improve. The baths program should be able to shrink in size over time and then be totally replaced once it is no 54

MATERIAL CONSTRAINTS

MATERIAL

Table 2.

EMBODIED ENERGY (MJ/kg)

AGGREGATE

0.10

STRAW BALE

0.24

SOIL-CEMENT

0.42

STONE

0.79

CONCRETE BLOCK

0.94

CAST CONCRETE (30 MPa)

1.3

PRECAST CONCRETE

2.0

LUMBER

2.5

BRICK

5.5

CELLULOSE INSULATION

3.3

GYPSUM WALLBOARD

6.1

PARTICLE BOARD

8.0

ALUMINUM - RECYCLED

8.1

STEEL - RECYCLED

8.9

ASPHALT SHINGLES

9.0

PLYWOOD

10.4

MINERALL WOOL INSULATION

14.6

GLASS

15.9

FIBREGLASS

30.3

STEEL - NEW

32.0

PVC

70.0

PAINT

93.3

POLYSTYRENE INSULATION

109

LINOLEUM

116

CARPET

148

ALUMINUM - NEW

227

Embodied energy of common architectural materials, with carbon dependent materials highlighted.12

55

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

longer necessary.

FOUNDATION

Stainless steel helical screws will be used instead of a poured foundation to avoid using concrete. Screw foundations are already supporting buildings up to nine storeys high13 and Surrey’s glacial till provides an excellent soil medium.14 A helical screw foundation will be a large material and cost investment due to the amount of metal required, but there are numerous benefits of this technology:  screws allow for extremely rapid installation under all weather conditions and require small amounts of powered equipment  soil spoils are minimized, meaning that less energy has to be spent hauling away materials  seismic performance of screw foundations is also superior to that of shallow concrete foundations.15 Stainless steel will be selected instead of galvanized or untreated carbon steel because high rainfall in the Lower Mainland tends to create acidic soils that rapidly corrode steel.16 The expense of post-carbon materials dictates that buildings be constructed durably rather than viewed as disposable products. Even though the baths program within the building will change, the building itself should have the ability to survive and be used by subsequent generations.

Helical screws facilitate complete deconstruction of the project should future urban conditions dictate, but the selection of stainless steel means that the building won’t make that decision for itself.

The most substantial influence a screw foundation will have upon the building design is the elimination of a basement, so mechanical equipment must be placed within the occupied floors of the building.

SUPERSTRUCTURE

Due to the high embodied energies of metals and concrete, timber is the only feasible structural material for building in post-carbon British Columbia. For equivalently sized structures built today, timber releases one-quarter of the 56

MATERIAL CONSTRAINTS

F O U N DAT I O N

CO M POS I TI O N

S UI TA B I L I TY

• STAINLESS STEEL HELICAL SCREWS

• GLACIAL TILL UNDER SURREY’S TOPSOIL IS IDEAL SUPPORT MEDIUM • HELICAL SCREWS NOW SUPPORT COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS UP TO 9 STOREYS

• EXTREMELY FAST INSTALLATION • INSTALLATION PROCEEDS IN ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS BENEFITS

• MINIMAL EQUIPMENT NEEDED FOR INSTALLATION • NO EXCAVATION NECESSARY • NO SOIL SPOILS • MINIMAL SITE DISTURBANCE • STRONG SEISMIC PERFORMANCE

DRAWBACKS

Figure 29.

• NO BASEMENT

Installation of helical screw foundation.

57

HOUSING CANADAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S CARBON MIGRANTS

carbon emissions of reinforced concrete17 and one-sixth of the emissions of steel construction,18 meaning it will have the lowest embodied energy and likely the cheapest cost of these materials in the future (were concrete construction even possible).

Masonry construction is possible in a post-carbon context, but was not selected for the Newton Baths for two reasons. Post-carbon masonry requires using nonhydraulic lime mortar, which is carbon neutral but takes longer to work and set than contemporary Portland cement mortar. Given the time constraints of the project, masonry is difficult to justify. Ensuring the seismic safety of a masonry structure also requires substantial amounts of metal for reinforcing, which adds to energy costs.

Wood construction will not restrict architectural possibilities for the Newton Baths. High rises of up to 30 storeys can be built to handle Vancouverâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s highly seismic environment, using engineered wood products like glulam beams and columns and cross laminated timber (CLT) panels.19 Concrete is not necessary to build a stable building core, as CLT panels have been used to construct the elevator shafts and egress stairs of buildings, such as the 9 storey Stadthaus condo building in Murray Grove, London. The prefabrication of CLT panels, ease of assembly, and lack of curing time means that such wooden structures can be erected very quickly. The Stadthaus had its CLT structural frame assembled at the rate of one storey per week using just 4 labourers and 1 supervisor.20 Timber construction of columns and beams on a large grid is a very flexible structural system. As long as the structural span exceeds 6m, it is relatively easy for residential and commercial programs to fit into an existing building. A post and beam structure with interlocking wood decking is easier to reconfigure than a solid CLT structure, so CLT will be used only for the main circulation core where its dimensional stability is required. The Newton Baths will likely never exceed six stories, even after additions, because of the solar energy capacity of the site. The large load-bearing capacity of CLT panels will not be necessary outside the core of the structure.

58

MATERIAL CONSTRAINTS

CORE

CO MPOSITIO N

SU ITAB IL ITY

• 343 mm CROSS LAMINATED TIMBER PANELS

• SHAFT BUILT TO ACCOMODATE ELEVATOR AT LATER DATE

• 1/4 THE EMBODIED ENERGY OF CONCRETE BENEFITS

• 1/6 THE EMBODIED ENERGY OF STEEL • FAST CONSTRUCTION

Figure 30.

Cross-laminated timber core.

M ANUFAC T UR

M AT ER IA

CO NST RUC T

Figure 31.

Construction with CLT core and glulam column and beam structure.

59

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

ENVELOPE

To speed construction time, the envelope of the Newton Baths will be constructed using a prefabricated panel system based on the technology of structurally insulated panels. Panels will be composed, from the inside out, of:  a layer of 3/4” wooden sheathing  a layer of insulation equivalent to R-40 laminated to the sheathing  two layers of 1x2 strapping (vertical, then horizontal) to act as a base for vertical 1x4 wood rainscreen cladding.

The insulation will be cut with an angular profile around the perimeter of the panels so that the assembly can be made airtight with spray foam once the panels are installed. The strapping will be tied back to the sheathing through the insulation using only a small number of long metal screws.

More robust cladding supports, such as metal girts, are not necessary because the compressive strength of the exterior insulation will ensure that the screws cannot bend enough to fail,21 and screws present a very small thermal bridge compared to other solutions.

The base design of these panels represents a flexible envelope system. Either plywood or oriented strand board (OSB) can be used for the wood sheathing. Plywood has a lower embodied energy than OSB but requires higher quality wood as a material input. Its cost relative to OSB in a post-carbon economy is therefore unknown, so the system allows for the cheaper material to be used. Similarly, any possible exterior insulation can be used so long as it can act as a drainage plane behind a rainscreen. Rockwool has by far the lowest embodied energy, suggesting it will be the cheapest. The elimination of fossil fuels will mean, however, that petroleum producers will be seeking uses for their excess supply capacity. The oversupply may drive down the cost of petroleum-based insulation materials to a point where they are competitive with Rockwool, in which case they can be selected.

The layering of the components of the envelope 60

MATERIAL CONSTRAINTS

Figure 32.

Model of the prefabricated envelope panel.

Figure 33.

Angular profile of the panel insulation.

61

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

panel also ensures that a minimal amount of materials are needed. Spray foam insulation to seal the panels is a large energy expense, but its use—combined with the thickness of the wood sheathing—means that separate air and vapour barriers are not necessary in the wall assembly.

Three dimensional air currents inside the panel joints are stopped by the spray foam, and both plywood and OSB at 3/4” thickness act as air barriers and vapour barriers suitable for Vancouver’s climate.

GLAZING

Barbara Ross has shown that for buildings in the Great Lakes region, a high quality envelope has a greater impact on reducing energy consumption than building orientation and building form combined.22 This relationship will be even more pronounced in Vancouver where the winter sun is mostly non-directional due to prevalent overcast conditions.

Joe Lstiburek has demonstrated that windows with a high insulation value are the most important part of an envelope because they are the weakest thermal component. This relationship is so strong that for nearly all practical window-to-wall ratios, an envelope with triple glazing but unimpressive R-20 insulation will outperform an envelope with double glazing and R-40.23 Putting poor windows into a well insulated building is like going outside on a cold day without pants on: no matter how warm your coat is, you’re still going to be cold.

The windows for the Newton Baths will be quad glazing, composed of two layers of glass sandwiching two heat-reflective films, all separated by krypton-filled cavities. The window units have an R-value of 14.29,24 nearly seven times greater than the double glazing units typically used in construction today.

Window frame materials will be made of wood to reduce embodied energy and improve thermal performance compared to aluminum or polymer frames.

There are companies in Metro Vancouver, such as Unison Windows and Doors, that currently manufacture precise and robust curtain walls in which metal is only used sparingly and wood is the main structural material.25 62

TY

PI

N

C

EW

A L

TO

N

VA N

EN

R-40

C O

ER 25 GY % C G EN LA T ZI R N E G

U 65 VER % C G O LA N ZI DO N G

MATERIAL CONSTRAINTS

R-35

R-30

R-25 R-40

EFFECTIVE ENVELOPE

WALL

, U-0.0

5 WIND

OW (R20)

R-20 WALL, U-0.05 WINDOW (R-20)

R-20

R-20 WALL

, U-0.07 WIND

OW (R-15)

R-40

WALL

, U-0.0

OW (R15)

R-15 R-20 WAL L,

U-0.3

WIN

PENTA GLAZING

7 WIND

QUAD GLAZING

DOW (R

-7.1)

R-10

R-40 WA

LL, U-0 .14 WIN

DOW (R-7 .1)

TRIPLE GLAZING

R-20 WA LL, U-0 .48 WIN

R-5

DOW (R-2.1)

20%

R-40 WALL, U-0.48

40%

60%

80%

WINDOW (R-2.1)

DOUBLE GLAZING

100%

WINDOW-TO-WALL RATIO

Figure 34.

Effective envelope performance vs. window-to-wall ratio for four types of glazing.

63

HOUSING CANADAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S CARBON MIGRANTS

ROOF

Since the Newton Baths is a net-zero operating energy building, the floor area and number of residents that can live in the building is limited by the amount of energy that can be generated on site. A solar photovoltaic (PV) array that covers the site maximizes this generation potential, necessitating a flat roof for the building.

Solar panels currently under development in laboratories are over twice as efficient26 as the best models on the market today,27 meaning the capacity of the building can be increased years after its construction by replacing the original solar array with a more efficient one and adding more floors. As Surrey densifies, pressure to increase the building occupancy will likely mount. The roofing material of the Newton Baths should be either reusable or easily recyclable to facilitate this change.

The roofing material that best provides a waterproof membrane for a flat roof that will be renovated in the future is EPDM membrane. EPDM has a long track record in flat roof installations, and can be coloured white in order to reduce the roof temperature and improve the efficiency of the solar cells. It is also a thermoplastic that can be melted down and easily recycled.28

64

MATERIAL CONSTRAINTS PANEL S H E AT H I N G (OPTION)

19 mm OSB 19 mm PLYWOOD

R - 4 0 E X T E R I O R I N S U L AT I O N (OPTION)

ROCKWOOL XPS EPS SPF ICYNENE (CLOSED CELL PREFERRE

S T R A P P I N G | 1x2 LUMBER

WINDOW W I N D O W F R A M E | MACHINED WOOD G L A Z I N G U N I T S | QUAD GLAZING

KRYPTON FILL LOW-E OR HEAT MIRROR

EXTERIOR STRUCTURE P A N E L S E A L E R | 2 lb. POLYURETHANE FOAM F L A S H I N G | MOLDED POLYETHYLENE CL A D D I N G | S TA I N E D 1 x 4 L U M B E R

INTERIOR STRUCTURE I N T E R I O R S T R U C T U R E | 2 x 4 S T U D S AT 2 4 ” O . C .

I N T E R I O R W A L L | 1/2” GYPSUM BOARD

F L O O R | 3/4” HARDWOOD SUBFLOOR (OPTION)

1/2” OSB 1/2” PLYWOOD

D U C T S & C O N D U I T | CIRCULAR POLYETHYLENE F L O O R R A I S E R S | 2x12 LUMBER

I M P A C T I N S U L AT I O N | 25 mm MINERAL FIBRE BOARD D E C K I N G | 89 x 200 mm TOUNGE & GROOVE

B E A M S | 457 x 130 mm GLULAM G I R D E R S | 610 x 171 mm GLULAM

C O L U M N S | 533 mm GLULAM

Figure 35.

Completed wall assembly incorporating prefabricated panel.

65

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

CHAPTER 5

THE NEWTON BATHS

The Newton Bath building is designed for changing usage over predictable daily and annual cycles. Bathing, prayer, and the market rush of the morning transition into a workday characterized by the laughter of children in the daycare. The day ends with evening baths, residents tending to gardens and cooking meals, and a town hall style residents’ meeting in the multipurpose room. Over the course of a year, bathing will peak in the winter when heating needs can’t be as easily met by the nearby suburban homes, while the market will bustle in the summer and early fall with the sale of fresh produce.

The building also anticipates larger transformations on a decadal time scale. As societal energy supplies increase or the original solar canopy is replaced with higher efficiency panels, the unconditioned market of the ground floor will be enclosed to become traditional street front retail space.

Additional floors for apartments or condominium units may also result from this increase in energy supplies. As the need for the baths decreases, additional dwelling units may replace them as well.

66

THE NEWTON BATHS

12 AM

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12 PM

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

12 AM

11

4

DORMITORIES

DORMITORIES

3

BATHS

2

BATHS

PRAYER

DAYCARE

RECREATION

MARKET

GROUND

J

F

M

A

M

J

J

A

S

O

N

D

4

DORMITORIES 3

BATHS

2

BATHS

UNCONDITIONED MARKET

GROUND

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

6

5

CONDOMINIUMS 4

DORMITORIES 3

BATH

2

GROUND

UNCONDITIONED MARKET

Figure 36.

CONDITIONED COMMERCIAL

Program diagram for the Newton Baths showing daily, annual, and decadal usage.

67

2040

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

ENERGY GENERATION

Making the Newton Baths net zero for annual operating energy is a two sided problem: 1. the building must generate sufficient energy to power itself 2. the building’s energy consumption must be low enough to make self-sufficiency possible.

Energy is generated exclusively through solar photovoltaics.

330 SunPower E327 (327 Watt) panels make a 108 kW array that defines the top plane of the building. Surrey’s latitude and climate provide 1026 kWh of electricity per year for each kW of installed solar capacity,1 yielding just under 111 MWh of annual electricity generation.

Photovoltaics were chosen over solar thermal panels to facilitate achieving net zero status. The grid allows excess electricity from the Baths to be used wherever it is needed in the surrounding community, whereas hot water could only be used within the district heating network the Baths are connected to.

The Lower Mainland’s rainy and overcast winters have discouraged the deployment of solar panels, but its long, sunny, summer days actually make the region a strong solar performer over the course of a year. While not the best, Vancouver is far from the worst city in Canada for solar generation potential. It is also noteworthy that nearly all cities in Germany, the world’s leader in solar generation, have worse solar generation potential than any Canadian city.2

68

THE NEWTON BATHS

SOLAR CANOPY

3 3 0 PA N E L S ( R O O F A N D C A N O PY ) SUN POWER E327 20.4% EFFICIENCY 3 2 7 W AT T S P E R P A N E L

T O TA L C A P A C I T Y

108 kW

8

5

P H O T O V O LTA I C P O T E N T I A L

5

3

8

3

3

8

0 8

7 N

LO

N

C

D

O

W O

IS

IN

R

L R

A P

E

S O

M

O

’S

Y

K O

H

N T

B

Y

G

C

E

D ,

R R

N O

U S

T.

S

G

JO

IN

IJ

B

E

IN

D

H S A W

IO

T

Y

E

O

N

R

E

O

IR

M

E N

JA

E

A

Y

IT

IN

G

D

E

Y R

R

S

C C A A IR P E O T N O E W LO W D N S E A M N LH G I E E X L IC O ES C

2

5

8

8

3

8

4

3

3

10

9

8

8

8

4

6

11

3

11

1026 kWh/kW for SURREY, BC

2

3

3

4

3

8

5

13

12

12

2

1 6

14

14

13

3

3 2

15

15

16

8

5

A N N U A L G E N E R AT I O N C A P A C I T Y ( k W h / k W )

A N N U A L G E N E R AT I O N

110,716 kWh

132ND STREET

Figure 37.

Diagram showing the generation potential for the Newton Baths site.

69

HOUSING CANADAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S CARBON MIGRANTS

ENERGY CONSUMPTION

Energy consumption is reduced through construction by targeting Passive House levels for heating and ventilation of 15 kWh/m2 per year. Air conditioning is eliminated in favour of cross ventilation for all units (see 3rd Floor below).

Energy consumption from plug loads is reduced by assigning each resident an energy budget of 4 kWh per day. The Bullitt Center in Seattle provides a precedent for limiting the amount of electricity that building occupants can draw.3 The budget provided by the Baths is less than a third of what a typical Canadian uses today, but still more than the average Italian uses.4 Smart usage of electronics and lighting, combined with selection of low power appliances, should make it fairly easy to limit energy usage to this level.

The estimated energy use intensity for the building is approximately 40 kWh/m2 per year. This value includes all the activities of the residents in their units and the interior conditioning of all the buildingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s enclosed floor area, but excludes the hot water usage of the baths and the electricity drawn by vendors in the ground floor market.

70

THE NEWTON BATHS

H E AT I N G TA R G E T P A S S I V E H O U S E A N N U A L H E AT I N G L O A D

15 kWh/m2

2 X ( 7 6 9 m 2)

2825 m2

1287 m2

4 2 , 3 6 9 k W h A N N U A L H E AT I N G L O A D

1 1 0 , 7 1 6 k W h G E N E R AT E D F R O M S O L A R A R R AY - 42,369 kWh 68,347 kWh REMAINING FOR RESIDENT PLUG LOADS

PLUG LOADS R E S I D E N T S H AV E A N E L E C T R I C I T Y B U D G E T

12

.4

13

.0

D A I LY R E S I D E N T I A L E L E C T R I C I T Y C O N S U M P T I O N P E R C A P I TA ( k W h / D AY )

.0

2

2

.2

1.

0 IA

IA D

IN

R

H

E

IN

IG

N

E

IL

G

Z

IC

A

X

R

E

C

R

A B

M

A

IA

LY

S

IC

A

S

R

U

F

R

E

A

V

A

T U

L

O

O

(6 8 , 3 47 k W h / Y E A R E L E C T R I C I T Y AVA I L A B L E ) /

W

S

D

H

N O T W E N

1461 kWh/YEAR PER PERSON ALLOWANCE

R

Y

S

IN

H

A

T

P

A

S

IT

N A

D E IT N U

B

N

M

IA

A

L

O

P

D

M

G

JA

R

IN

E

A R

K

G

E C

E T

A

N A

T S U

N

TA

R

A

S

F

C

D E

U

N

IT

A

D

A

S

0 A

.4

2

5 1.

1.

O

2

2

.3

.5

3

.2

4

4

.0

.2

4

.7

5

.4

6

.1

7.

4

7.

9

4 k W h / D AY P E R P E R S O N A L L O W A N C E

(1461 kWh/YEAR CONSUMED PER PERSON)

Figure 38.

MAXIMUM RESIDENTS SUPPORTED

46

D E S I G N O C C U PA N C Y

44

Diagram showing energy usage for the Newton Baths.

71

72

A simple way to accomplish these goals is to leave the ground floor of the Baths building open to be filled by the stalls of an informal market. The ceiling that keeps the site dry becomes the market’s largest piece of infrastructure, and vendors can rent as much or

 low first costs for rent or purchase, to allow businesses to easily start up  low operating costs so operators can keep more of their income as profit or invest it back into their businesses

The Newton Baths building will be a neighbourhood locus and, like a transit station, a natural site for commerce to serve the reliable throughput of bathers.

To make the space more attractive for businesses during a recession, the Baths as a commercial site should have low barriers to entry so that people with minimal resources can earn a living there. A lowbarrier commercial site would have:

GROUND FLOOR

The main entrance of the Baths building delivers bathers and residents directly into the core that sits on a raised plinth. An elevator shaft is framed into the CLT structure but an elevator is not installed to reduce construction costs. The main stair is sized generously enough for a stair lift that will operate during the Baths’ first years of operation. Only later will an elevator be installed.

CORE

as little floor space as they want to match the needs of their business. Hatches in the ceiling access storage lockers and electrical hookups for the vendors.

Circular column plinths act as benches for market patrons and allow the foundation screws to protrude above ground level, saving the wooden columns from water damage. Three egress stairs from the building above contain public washrooms for the market.

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

S T. L A U R E N T S T R E E T

Figure 39.

EGRESS

73

Ground floor plan.

M A R K E T S TA L L S

WR

PA R K I N G

ENTRANCE

ENTRANCE

PA R K I N G

EGRESS

WR

M A R K E T S TA L L S

WR

EGRESS

THE NEWTON BATHS

D I E F E N BA K E R AV E N U E

Figure 40.

Render of the ground floor marketplace.

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

74

Figure 41.

Model of the ground floor showing the core, three egress stairs, and relationship to the street, greenway, and neighbouring buildings.

THE NEWTON BATHS

75

Upon leaving the main stairs, bathers enter the Baths lobby. Here they pay an entrance fee, grab a towel, and exchange a bit of gossip with the baths operator before entering the bath house. The bath house is modelled on the traditional Japanese sento with its progression from dressing room and toilets, to showers, to baths. Sit showers are provided in addition to standing showers to accommodate Sikhs—who form a large percentage of the pre-migration population in Newton—people with physical disabilities, and those who prefer to shower while sitting.

The bathing pools are located up a short flight of stairs from the showers in order to simplify the structure of the building. Windows at the pools extend all the way to the floor so bathers can gaze out through a small privacy garden and then over the street or the treetops of the greenway.

After an early bath, some Sikhs may choose to pray in the multipurpose room that overlooks its own courtyard, or in the courtyard itself. Shortly

2ND FLOOR

afterwards, this room will transform into a daycare and the courtyard into a playground for the children of commuting bathers. Come evening, the room will be filled with music and chatter from a party held by the building’s residents.

Water and air for the entire building is supplied by the mechanical plant located behind the Baths lobby.

Equipment is lifted in and out of the building by a crane through large hatch in the floor.

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

76

77

Figure 42.

2ND floor plan.

M E N ’ S B AT H S

M U LT I P U R P O S E C O U R T Y A R D

EGRESS

W O M E N ’ S B AT H S

M U LT I P U R P O S E R O O M

SIT SHOWERS

SIT SHOWERS

BOOKS

C E S NT TA R IR AL

S TA N D I N G S H O W E R S

MEN’S WR

M U LT I P U R P O S E STORAGE

WOMEN’S WR

S TA N D I N G S H O W E R S

MEN’S CHANGE ROOM

CLIMBING WALL

B AT H S L O B B Y

WOMEN’S CHANGE ROOM

B AT H S OFFICE

MEN’S DRESSING ROOM

MEN’S TOILETS

MECHANICAL PLANT

WOMEN’S TOILETS

WOMEN’S DRESSING ROOM

NEW

W A S T E H E AT D

THE NEWTON BATHS

Figure 43.

Render of the women’s baths.

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

78

Figure 44.

Render of the multipurpose room.

THE NEWTON BATHS

79

Dwelling units for the residents of the Baths begin on the third floor. Units are arranged with light on at least two sides to allow cross ventilation during the summer, eliminating the need for air conditioning. As a result, all rooms except toilets and showers have a large window for ample daylight, but the units must be arranged in a string: two opposing walls are exterior, and two opposing walls are demising walls connecting to neighbouring units. Units have two and three bedrooms to accommodate larger families. Smaller households and singles live with roommates.

The string of units is shaped into two courtyards.

The western courtyard faces the park and is used by the residents for recreation and hanging laundry. The southern courtyard gets the best light and is dedicated to small scale agriculture. Residents grow vegetables for themselves or cash crops to sell in the market.

3RD FLOOR

HOUSING CANADAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S CARBON MIGRANTS

80

Figure 45.

81

UNIT 2

PLANTERS

S O U T H C O U R T YA R D

3RD floor plan.

UNIT 1

UNIT 3

UNIT 4

W E S T C O U R T YA R D

UNIT 5

UNIT 6

UNIT 7

UNIT 8

THE NEWTON BATHS

Figure 46.

Model of west courtyard.

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

82

Figure 47.

Model of south courtyard.

THE NEWTON BATHS

83

The fourth floor mimics the third, but units are accessed via exterior walkways rather than directly off the courtyards below. The walkways are 2 m wide and double as balconies, providing space for outdoor dining, play, or rest. Few people are served by each walkway, so heavy foot traffic is not likely to disturb a nap in the sun or twilight dinner.

FOURTH FLOOR

HOUSING CANADAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S CARBON MIGRANTS

84

Figure 48.

Render walkways facing the west courtyard on the 4th floor.

THE NEWTON BATHS

85

The roof is inaccessible except to service the solar array, the buildingâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s lifeblood. In order to increase the generation potential of the site, the array extends over the courtyards, suspended on rows of steel cables. The panels filter the sunlight that enters the courtyard and rock gently with the wind.

ROOF

HOUSING CANADAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S CARBON MIGRANTS

86

Figure 49.

Model of the solar array on the roof and canopy suspended over the south courtyard.

THE NEWTON BATHS

87

Figure 50.

Building and context model, bird’s eye aerial looking north, originally 1:200 (16 in x 28 in).

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

88

89

Figure 51.

LYO N AV E

133 STREET

DOMINION PLACE

132A STREET

132 A STREET

NEWTON BATHS

79A AVE

79 AVE

133A STREET

133A STREET

1 3 2 ND S T R E E T

134 STREET

MEDIUM GENERATION POTENTIAL

134 STREET

COMPLICATED GABLES

134A STREET

LOW GENERATION POTENTIAL

134A STREET

POOR ORIENTATION

Board 1 - Site Plan, originally 1:1000 (40 in x 24 in).

BENNETT AVE

78A AVE

S T. L AU R E N T AV E

DIEFENBAKER AVE

PEARSON AVE

80 AVENUE

78A AVE

79 AVE

79 A AVE

MAXIMUM GENERATION POTENTIAL

PROPER ORIENTATION

80A AVE

135A STREET

80 AVENUE

SITE PLAN

135 STREET

PIERRE AVE

1:1000

N

P R E V I O U S LY D E V E LO P E D P R E V I O U S LY D E V E LO P E D P R E V I O U S LY D E V E LO P E D

CLARK AVE

THE NEWTON BATHS

KING GEORGE BOULEVARD

135 STREET

90

Figure 52.

1:100

C O U R T YA R D

1:100

C O U R T YA R D

OPEN MARKET

M U LT I P U R P O S E

KITCHEN

KITCHEN

MP STORAGE

BEDROOM

BEDROOM

M U LT I P U R P O S E C O U R T

C O U R T YA R D

OPEN MARKET

OPEN MARKET

B AT H S L O B B Y

CORE

GARDENS

OFFICE

M E N ’ S B AT H S

KITCHEN

KITCHEN

PLANT

A

A P

BEDROOM

E

5

S

D N

H

8

E

G

I

X

E

15

S

5

R

IT

8

C

14

O

E

3

IC

L

2

E

Y G

2

S

Y

R

D

N

6

E

1

IO

13

A

5

IN

14

D

3

W

A

3

B H

I

IN

E

O

5

3

G

T

11

N

G

O

N JI

12 11

S

3

R

T.

R

C

U

D

S

4

,

8

B

E

8

P

IN

5

L

8

R

8

O R

8

M

A

4

O

S

3

C

8

IS

8 8

N

W

LO

O D

0

O

3 7

N

2

8

108 kW

110,716 kWh

1026 kWh/kW for SURREY, BC

P H O T O V O LTA I C P O T E N T I A L

T O TA L C A P A C I T Y

SUN POWER E327 20.4% EFFICIENCY 3 2 7 W AT T S P E R P A N E L

3 3 0 PA N E L S ( R O O F A N D C A N O PY )

A N N U A L G E N E R AT I O N

D I E F E N BA K E R AV E N U E

T

Y

3

K

3

O

9

’S

6

N

2

H

10

Y

JO

E

3

SOLAR ROOF PLANT

S

IR

8

E

12

N

E

JA

M

4

O

E

R

Y

13

132ND STREET

M

L

3

A

E

15

N

LO

W

W

3

O

N

T

O

E

BEDROOM

C

C

IR

16

A N N U A L G E N E R AT I O N C A P A C I T Y ( k W h / k W )

SOLAR CANOPY

Board 2 - Building Sections, originally 1:100, and energy generation analysis (40 in x 24 in).

LONG SECTION LOOKING WEST

S T. L A U R E N T A V E N U E

E G R E S S S TA I R

SHORT SECTION LOOKING NORTH

G R E E N W AY

M A R K E T S E AT I N G

KITCHEN

BEDROOM

W O M E N ’ S B AT H S

KITCHEN

BEDROOM

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

91

M A R K E T S TA L L S

WR

S T. L A U R E N T S T R E E T

Figure 53.

1:100

N

ENTRANCE

ENTRANCE

1 3 2 ND S T R E E T

PA R K I N G

EGRESS

WR

M A R K E T S TA L L S

WR

EGRESS

D I E F E N BA K E R AV E N U E

4

J

1

F

3

4

BATH

DORMITORIES

2022

BATHS

2

6

2024

M

PRAYER

5

UNCONDITIONED MARKET

2020

12 AM

7

8

9

A

2026

BATHS

M

DORMITORIES

PROGRAM DIAGRAM

GROUND

2

3

4

5

6

GROUND

2

3

4

GROUND

2

3

Board 3 - Ground Floor Plan, originally 1:100, and program diagram (40 in x 24 in).

GROUND FLOOR PLAN

EGRESS

PA R K I N G

NEWTON INDUSTRIAL P A R K G R E E N W AY

2028

10

J

MARKET

DAYCARE

12 PM

J

1

2

A

3

4

2030

2032

2034

5

S

7

8

9

2036

O

CONDOMINIUMS

2038

N

11

BATHS

10

RECREATION

BATHS

DORMITORIES

6

CONDITIONED COMMERCIAL

UNCONDITIONED MARKET

DORMITORIES

11

2040

D

12 AM

THE NEWTON BATHS

92

Figure 54.

1:100

PLANTERS

S O U T H C O U R T YA R D

UNIT 2

N

UNIT 3

UNIT 4

W E S T C O U R T YA R D

UNIT 5

UNIT 6

UNIT 7

UNIT 8

A S

TA

S

A

A

12

R

E

F

T

.0

U

N

U

L

IT

A

9

N

R

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7.

T

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.4

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D

K

P

4

JA

IA

7.

G

D

.1

G

N

IN

A

6

E

O R

N

4

A

.2

B

IN

N

A

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.7

T

S

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4

W

N

E

A

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M

M

5

T

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3 2

L

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F

IA A R

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4

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.0

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5

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IC

C

O

1.

H

2

IN

A

2

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1.

0

IG

IA N

D

E

.4

R

0 IA

.2

ENERGY CONSUMPTION

D

D

A

E

N

IT

A

N

C U

13

D A I LY R E S I D E N T I A L E L E C T R I C I T Y C O N S U M P T I O N P E R C A P I TA ( k W h / D AY )

Board 4 - 3rd Floor Plan, originally 1:100, and energy consumption analysis (40 in x 24 in).

THIRD FLOOR PLAN

UNIT 1

2825 m2

15 kWh/m2

H E AT I N G

46

44

MAXIMUM RESIDENTS SUPPORTED

D E S I G N O C C U PA N C Y

(1461 kWh/YEAR CONSUMED PER PERSON)

(6 8 , 3 47 k W h / Y E A R E L E C T R I C I T Y AVA I L A B L E ) /

1461 kWh/YEAR PER PERSON ALLOWANCE

4 k W h / D AY P E R P E R S O N A L L O W A N C E

R E S I D E N T S H AV E A N E L E C T R I C I T Y B U D G E T

PLUG LOADS

68,347 kWh REMAINING FOR RESIDENT PLUG LOADS

- 42,369 kWh

1 1 0 , 7 1 6 k W h G E N E R AT E D F R O M S O L A R A R R AY

4 2 , 3 6 9 k W h A N N U A L H E AT I N G L O A D

1287 m2

2 X ( 7 6 9 m 2)

TA R G E T P A S S I V E H O U S E A N N U A L H E AT I N G L O A D

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

93

Figure 55.

1:100

M U LT I P U R P O S E R O O M

N

SIT SHOWERS

SIT SHOWERS

BOOKS

E

S NT TA R IR AL

C

S TA N D I N G S H O W E R S

MEN’S WR

M U LT I P U R P O S E STORAGE

WOMEN’S WR

S TA N D I N G S H O W E R S

MEN’S CHANGE ROOM

CLIMBING WALL

B AT H S L O B B Y

WOMEN’S CHANGE ROOM

B AT H S OFFICE

MEN’S DRESSING ROOM

MEN’S TOILETS

MECHANICAL PLANT

WOMEN’S TOILETS

WOMEN’S DRESSING ROOM

ENERGY DIAGRAM

N E W T O N B AT H S

W A S T E H E AT D E P E N D E N C Y (e.g. CIRS)

Board 5 -2nd Floor Plan, originally 1:100, and net positive diagram (40 in x 24 in).

SECOND FLOOR PLAN

M E N ’ S B AT H S

M U LT I P U R P O S E C O U R T Y A R D

EGRESS

W O M E N ’ S B AT H S

CONVENTIONAL ENERGY USAGE

THE NEWTON BATHS

94

• NO BASEMENT

• STRONG SEISMIC PERFORMANCE

• MINIMAL SITE DISTURBANCE

• NO SOIL SPOILS

• NO EXCAVATION NECESSARY

• MINIMAL EQUIPMENT NEEDED FOR INSTALLATION

• INSTALLATION PROCEEDS IN ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS

• EXTREMELY FAST INSTALLATION

• HELICAL SCREWS NOW SUPPORT COMMERCIAL BUILDINGS UP TO 9 STOREYS

• GLACIAL TILL UNDER SURREY’S TOPSOIL IS IDEAL SUPPORT MEDIUM

• STAINLESS STEEL HELICAL SCREWS

Figure 56.

Board 6 - Structure and Assembly (40 in x 24 in).

S T R U C T U R E & A S S E M B LY

DRAWBACKS

BENEFITS

SUITA B ILITY

COMP OSITION

F O U N DAT I O N

BENEFITS

SUITA B ILITY

COMP OSITION

• FAST CONSTRUCTION

• 1/6 THE EMBODIED ENERGY OF STEEL

• 1/4 THE EMBODIED ENERGY OF CONCRETE

• SHAFT BUILT TO ACCOMODATE ELEVATOR AT LATER DATE

• 343 mm CROSS LAMINATED TIMBER PANELS

CORE

CON STRUCTI ON

MATE RI A LS

MA N UFA CTURI N G

• CLADDING AND INTERIORS THEN BUILT SIMULTANEOUSLY

• PANELS ARE FOAMED CLOSED FOR AIRTIGHTNESS

• PREFABRICATION ALLOWS BUILDING TO BE ENCLOSED QUICKLY

• SYSTEM ALLOWS FLEXIBILITY OF MATERIALS BASED ON COSTS

• MADE IN STRUCTURALLY INSULATED PANEL FACTORY

ENVELOPE

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

95

R-25

R-5

R-10

R-15

R-20

Figure 57.

20%

(R-7.1)

(R-15)

40%

60%

WINDOW-TO-WALL RATIO

OW (R-2.

1)

8 WIND

DOW

U-0.3 WIN

U-0.07 WINDOW

L, U-0.4

WALL,

R-20 WAL

R-20

R-20 WALL,

R-20 WALL, U-0.05 WINDOW (R-20)

N

TO EW

N

G

PIC

TY

L A

N

VA

WALL,

80%

R-40 WALL, U-0.48

DOW (R-20)

(R-7.1)

(R-15)

100%

WINDOW (R-2.1)

WINDOW

DOW

U-0.05 WIN

U-0.07 WIN

, U-0.14

WALL,

R-40 WALL

R-40

R-40

O D N G O IN C Z R LA VE G U % O 65 C

DOUBLE GLAZING

TRIPLE GLAZING

QUAD GLAZING

PENTA GLAZING

ROCKWOOL XPS EPS SPF ICYNENE (CLOSED CELL PREFERRED)

1/2” OSB 1/2” PLYWOOD

C O L U M N S | 533 mm GLULAM

G I R D E R S | 610 x 171 mm GLULAM

B E A M S | 457 x 130 mm GLULAM

D E C K I N G | 89 x 200 mm TOUNGE & GROOVE

I M P A C T I N S U L AT I O N | 25 mm MINERAL FIBRE BOARD

F L O O R R A I S E R S | 2x12 LUMBER

D U C T S & C O N D U I T | CIRCULAR POLYETHYLENE

SUBFLOOR (OPTION)

F L O O R | 3/4” HARDWOOD

I N T E R I O R W A L L | 1/2” GYPSUM BOARD

I N T E R I O R S T R U C T U R E | 2 x 4 S T U D S AT 2 4 ” O . C .

INTERIOR STRUCTURE

CL A D D I N G | S TA I N E D 1 x 4 L U M B E R

F L A S H I N G | MOLDED POLYETHYLENE

P A N E L S E A L E R | 2 lb. POLYURETHANE FOAM

EXTERIOR STRUCTURE

KRYPTON FILL LOW-E OR HEAT MIRROR

G L A Z I N G U N I T S | QUAD GLAZING

W I N D O W F R A M E | MACHINED WOOD

WINDOW

S T R A P P I N G | 1x2 LUMBER

Board 7 - Wall Detail, originally 1:10 at section cut, and envelope design diagram (40 in x 24 in).

ENVELOPE

EFFECTIVE ENVELOPE

R-30

R-35

R-40

E

TR EN IN C Z Y LA G G ER 5% EN 2

19 mm OSB 19 mm PLYWOOD

R - 4 0 E X T E R I O R I N S U L AT I O N (OPTION)

S H E AT H I N G (OPTION)

PANEL

THE NEWTON BATHS

96

Figure 58.

Board 8 - Renders of west balcony and multipurpose room (40 in x 24 in).

MULTIPURPOSE ROOM

WEST BALCONY

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

97

Figure 59.

Board 9 - Renders of women’s bath and streetscape (40 in x 24 in).

STREETSCAPE

WOMEN’S BATH

THE NEWTON BATHS

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

CHAPTER 6

THE NEED FOR MITIGATIVE ARCHITECTURE

This thesis was approached with an optimistic outlook. It assumes: 

that industrial economies can survive the removal of the majority of the energy upon which they are based  that elimination of fossil fuels will not cause unsustainable production of other energy sources, such as biofuels leading to desertification and deforestation, or a revival in human slavery  that social mores will weather a recession more devastating than any in the past centuries.

The most optimistic aspect of this project is, however, that a five-year phase out of fossil fuels is accepted in the first place. Fossil fuels were not eliminated in this thesis to create fanciful and compelling architecture, but rather as a reasonable response to humanity being a generation behind in stopping its carbon emissions.

A more grounded view of this proposal to eliminate fossil fuels strongly indicates that Earth is destined for an inexorable warming period and resultant changes to its 98

THE NEED FOR MITIGATIVE ARCHITECTURE

climate:  carbon emissions continue to rise annually despite increasing awareness of the climate problem and deteriorating predictions from an initially conservative climate science community1  fossil fuel companies possess proven reserves of coal, oil, and natural gas nearly five times the amount necessary to cause a global temperature rise of 2°C2  keeping 80% of those reserves in the ground would result in a massive destruction of monetary wealth for fossil fuel companies, their shareholders, and the world governments currently banking on their extraction Humanity’s failure to avoid global warming is unfortunate, but unsurprising in hindsight due to limitations in human psychology. By studying these limitations, humanity may achieve sustainability in the future, within the changed environmental context that we are now creating.

PSYCHOLOGY

According to social psychologist Daniel Gilbert, humans have evolved to deal with problems that are:    

intentional immoral instantaneous imminent

or possess some combination of those four traits.

Unfortunately, global warming possesses none of these characteristics and therefore its predicted effects are either downplayed or ignored altogether.

The impact of intentional versus unintended actions is perhaps best illustrated by the United States’ response to terrorism since 2001. The September 11th attacks were responsible for 2,977 deaths (excluding the hijackers) but prompted a response that included two foreign wars at a direct cost of over 1.4 trillion dollars,3 in addition 99

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

to a massive restructuring of American border and port security and global air travel. In comparison, deaths from motor vehicle accidents killed 32,885 people in the United States in 2010 alone.4 Car accidents fail to rouse the fear invoked by terrorism because these deaths are accidental.

Global warming is not an intentional action on the part of a malevolent individual or organization, but is rather an unforeseen side effect of a mostly beneficial activity. As Gilbert states, “global warming isn’t trying to kill us and that’s a damn shame.”5 On a moral level, humans don’t have a visceral reaction to the problem of global warming because there is no precedent for indirect environmental degradation within human moral systems. As Gilbert explains, these systems have largely been focused on rules governing “food and sex”6 because those concerns determined our ability to stay alive, reproduce, and survive as a species.

Even when people are concerned about the consequences of global warming, it is rare that they become outraged by its existence.

Similarly, for most of our evolutionary history, humans and our ancestors were concerned with immediate physical danger and only recently learned how to avoid threats that had not yet manifested themselves. From an evolutionary perspective, this ability of our brain is still relatively new, is underdeveloped, and is frequently overwhelmed by immediate, animal concerns. Gilbert explains that “[humans] care less about the future than any rational analysis suggests we should,”7 citing a study in which volunteers demanded nearly $200 a year in the future to replace a $100 gift now (a 100% interest rate). The slow rate at which the changes from global warming are occurring is taking advantage of this human inadequacy in addressing future problems, allowing humans variously to disbelieve the realities of global warming, to accept its existence but disbelieve its predicted effects, or to accept that consequences will occur in the abstract without seriously considering their impact.

American geographer Jared Diamond deals with this notion of creeping normality in his book Collapse, 100

THE NEED FOR MITIGATIVE ARCHITECTURE

Figure 60.

A poster protesting an Australian shark cull in January 2014 shows the difference in human response between unintentional and intentional threats.8

101

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

which examines the destruction of societies due to mismanagement of resources such as timber and topsoil.

When examining the deforestation that preceded the societal collapse of Easter Island, Diamond asks, “What did the Easter Islander who cut down the last palm tree say while he was doing it?”9 Diamond’s answer is that as deforestation occurred over generations, trees lost their economic importance and exacerbated a condition of landscape amnesia in which trees’ previous centrality was forgotten. Instead of large palms, “only smaller and smaller palm saplings [were left] to clear each year, along with other bushes and treelets. No one would have noticed the felling of the last small palm.”10 The Easter Islanders were metaphorical frogs in hot water. Diamond argues that they did not realize too late that deforestation was a problem, but rather failed to realize it was a problem at all.

Global warming, for a large majority of the Earth’s population, is a similar problem to Easter Island’s deforestation because people are able to adapt to and normalize the small, initial changes. Climate scientists worry that the effects of global warming are occurring quickly, but Gilbert believes that the opposite is true: “it’s happening too slowly. It’s not happening nearly quickly enough to get our attention.”11 Gilbert’s evaluation of human psychology in the face of global warming is corroborated by Thomas Gladwin who argues that Western culture has preconditioned most people to think in a manner that is not only counterproductive to the sustainability of the environment, but also damaging to our social and economic systems. Such unsustainable thinking occurs actively and subconsciously in relation to biology, social relations, and global interactions, mostly as a result of the limits of our brains. Humans think linearly rather than systematically, focus on the immediate over the distant, are poor judges of risk, and are remarkably narcissistic as individuals and a species. We have also evolved complex subconscious mechanisms that allow us to live with cognitive dissonance in order to protect ourselves from mental stress.12 For all of these reasons, it is likely that we as a species will be able to both realize that 102

THE NEED FOR MITIGATIVE ARCHITECTURE

Figure 61.

Creeping climate normality from the 2013-2014 winter, illustrated by an XKCD comic.13

103

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

global warming is a problem and charge headlong towards it.

SUSTAINABILITY

The most likely method to overcome the psychological limitations of humanity’s perceived relationship to its surroundings is not to convince current leaders and voters to change their thinking and behavior, but to educate future generations to think globally and systematically rather than individually and linearly. Such generational shifts in thinking, whether formally taught or naturally occurring, have already shown themselves to be extremely successful in altering societal behaviour. They are responsible for shifting the socio-political landscape in the United States over the past century—particularly regarding liberalized attitudes towards marriage and sex14—and reducing violence in Western society over the past 800 years.15 Intercohort changes—as these shifts in thinking between generations are called—are relentless once they begin, but they necessarily happen at a slow rate. Future humans may begin to think and act sustainably, but only in a world that is climatically altered from the one we now live in.

MITIGATION

Since our planet is destined for substantial global warming and deleterious climate change, forward-thinking designers should shift their focus from an architecture of sustainability to an architecture of mitigation, as has already been called for by some in the building industry.16 In this way, creators of the built environment may lessen the oncoming blows from our natural environment that we have brought upon ourselves and guaranteed for future generations.

Mitigative architecture will share many characteristics with current sustainable design, such as greatly reduced energy consumption and self-sufficiency, rather than reliance upon centralized systems for energy, water, and waste management. In addition to these contemporary design concerns, however, mitigative architecture must embody either robustness or flexibility to withstand, 104

THE NEED FOR MITIGATIVE ARCHITECTURE

Figure 62.

A popular meme from 2012 illustrates the power of intercohort changes towards views on marriage in the United States.17 105

HOUSING CANADAâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;S CARBON MIGRANTS

survive, and thrive within an environmental context that may soon exceed the historical baselines upon which our codes, laws, and building industry is based.

One constant shared by all of Earthâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s civilizations is a global climate that has been, despite temporary extremes in weather, benevolently homeostatic. We have now changed the composition of our atmosphere; it is unlikely that we will be able to rely upon our notions of normalcy for much longer.

106

ENDNOTES

CHAPTER 1: A QUICK PRIMER ON GLOBAL WARMING 1.

“Temperature change and carbon dioxide change,” National Climatic Data Center, last modified August 20, 2008, http://www.ncdc. noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/temperature-change.html.

2. “The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect,” Spencer Weart and the American Institute of Physics, last updated February 2013, http://www. aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm.

3. P. Forster, et al., “2007: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing,” in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, eds. Solomon et al. (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press), 131.

4. “What Does This Number Mean?” Scripps Institution of Oceanography, posted December 3, 2013, http://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/ what-does-this-number-mean/.

5.

”The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect.”

6. Eystein Jansen et al., “Paleoclimate,” in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, eds. Solomon et al. (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press), 466-78.

7.

“The current and future consequences of global climate change,” National Aeronautics and Space Administration, http://climate.nasa. gov/effects.

8. Virginie Marchal et al., “Climate Change Chapter,” in OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050, 6, http://www.oecd.org/env/ cc/49082173.pdf.

9.

“Temperature change and carbon dioxide change.”

10. “CO2 Trend,” Pro Oxygen, http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2Trend/.

11. Martin Scheffer et al, “Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems,” Nature 413 (2011), doi:10.1038/35098000. http://www.gatsby.ucl.ac.uk/~pel/ environment/catastrophe.pdf.

12. Stephen H. Schneider, “Abrupt Non-Linear Climate Change, Irreversibility, and Surprise,” Global Environmental Change, Vol. 14 Issue 3, http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.130.1 702&rep=rep1&type=pdf.

13. Brian Fisher et al., “3.3.5 Long-term stabilization scenarios,” in Climate Change 2007: Working Group III: Mitigation of Climate Change, eds. Metz et al. (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 107

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

2007), https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg3/en/ch3s33-5.html.

14. Susan Solomon, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Reto Knutti, and Pierre Friedlingstein, “Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions,” Proceedings of the national academy of sciences 106, no. 6 (2009): 1704-1709, http://www.pnas.org/content/ early/2009/01/28/0812721106.full.pdf+html.

15. Marshall Brain, “If the polar ice caps melted, how much would the oceans rise?” HowStuffWorks.com, posted September 21, 2000, http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/earth/geophysics/ question473.htm.

16.

“Irreversible climate change.”

17. James Hansen et al., “Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim?.” arXiv preprint arXiv:0804.1126 (2008).

18. “The Keeling Curve,” Scripps Institution of Oceanography, http:// keelingcurve.ucsd.edu/.’

19.

“The Keeling Curve.”

20. Figures 4-7 from: Alex Tingle, “Global Sea Level Rise Map,” 2013, http://geology.com/sealevel-rise/.

CHAPTER 2: THE CARBON MIGRATION 1.

Greg Mankiw, “Carbon Tax vs Cap-and-Trade,” Greg Mankiw’s Blog, February 13, 2008, http://gregmankiw.blogspot.ca/2008/02/carbontax-vs-cap-and-trade.html.

2.

“International Energy Statistics,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3. cfm.

3.

“Bruce Power New build Project Environmental Assessment -- Round One Open House,” Bruce Power, 2006, 57, http://www.ceaa. gc.ca/050/documents/26586/26586E.pdf.

4.

“World Hydro Potential and Development,” INTPOW, 16, http:// www.intpow.com/index.php?id=487&download=1.

5.

Sebastiaan Luyssaert et al, “Old-growth forests as global climate sinks,” Nature 455 (2008), doi: 10.1038/nature07276. http://www. nature.com/nature/journal/v455/n7210/abs/nature07276.html.

6.

Lester R. Brown, “Biofuels Blunder: Massive Diversion of U.S. Grain to Fuel Cars is Raising World Food Prices, Risking Political Instability,” Earth Policy Institute, http://web.archive.org/web/20090404100351/ http://www.earth-policy.org/Transcripts/SenateEPW07.htm.

7.

“Historical Statistics of Japan,” Statistics Japan, http://www.stat. go.jp/english/data/chouki/index.htm.

8.

Steve Sorrell and David Ockwell “Can we decouple energy 108

ENDNOTES

consumption from economic growth?” Sussex Energy Group Policy Briefing Number 7, February 2010, 3, https://www.sussex.ac.uk/ webteam/gateway/file.php?name=economic-growthweb1.pdf&site=264.

9.

J. Bradford De Long, “Estimates of World GDP, One Million B.C. – Present,” 1998, 10, http://delong.typepad.com/ print/20061012_LRWGDP.pdf.

Gail Tverberg, “World Energy Consumption Since 1820 in Charts,” March 12, 2012, http://ourfiniteworld.com/2012/03/12/world-energyconsumption-since-1820-in-charts/.

10. “Canadian Energy Overview 2012 – Energy Briefing Note,” National Energy Board, http://www.neb-one.gc.ca/clf-nsi/rnrgynfmtn/nrgyrprt/ nrgyvrvw/cndnnrgyvrvw2012/cndnnrgyvrvw2012-eng.html#s3.

11.

“Canadian Energy Overview 2012 – Energy Briefing Note.”

12.

“Energy Use Data Handbook Data Tables (Canada) – Total EndUse Sector,” Government of Canada, January 1, 2013, http://data.gc.ca/ data/en/dataset/23b85a02-a358-42b6-86c3-753b0355b616.

13.

The Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada states that of the job growth forecasted from the oil and gas industry, 21% of the jobs will be direct, 49% will be indirect, and 30 percent will be induced: Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada, “The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Outlook to 2022 for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry,” May 2013, 3 http://www.petrohrsc.ca/media/85483/ canada_labour_market_outlook_to_2022_report_may_2013.pdf.

Provincial values for the number of people directly employed in the oil and gas industry: British Columbia: “A Million Oil and Gas Jobs,” Dawson Creek Daily News, June 4, 2013, http://www.dawsoncreekdailynews.ca/ a r t i c l e / 2 0 1 3 0 6 0 4 / D AW S O N C R E E K 0 1 0 1 / 3 0 6 0 4 9 9 9 6 / - 1 / dawsoncreek/a-million-oil-and-gas-jobs.

Alberta: Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada, “The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Outlook to 2022 for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry,” May 2013, 3 http://www.petrohrsc.ca/media/85483/canada_labour_ market_outlook_to_2022_report_may_2013.pdf.

British Columbia and Saskatchewan: Cassandra Jowett, “Where Are All The Oil and Gas Jobs in Canada?” TalentEgg, October 12, 2012, http://talentegg.ca/ incubator/2012/10/12/oil-gas-jobs-canada/.

New Brunswick: “Refining,” Irving

Oil,

http://irvingoil.com/operations_ 109

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

and_partners/operations/refining/.

Nova Scotia: “Nova Scotia’s Oil and Natural Gas Industry,” Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, September 2010, http:// www.capp.ca/GetDoc.aspx?DocID=176809.

Prince Edward Island: “Prince Edward Island,” Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, http://www.capp.ca/canadaIndustr y/industr yAcrossCanada/ Pages/PrinceEdwardIsland.aspx.

Newfoundland and Labrador: “Newfoundland and Labrador’s Offshore Oil and Natural Gas Exploration and Production Industry,” Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, September 2010, http://www.capp.ca/GetDoc.aspx?DocID=176807.

Where specific provincial employment numbers were not found, they were estimated from the number of people employed in the natural resources sector for that province: “Distribution of employed people, by industry, by province,” Statistics Canada, last modified January 10, 2014, http://www.statcan.gc.ca/ tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/labor21a-eng.htm.

14. Annual provincial and territorial from the oil and gas industry estimated from:

tax

revenues

“Economic Impacts of the Petroleum Industry in Canada,” Canadian Energy Research Institute, July 2009, http://www. ceri.ca/docs/CERIIOSummaryReport.pdf.

Total annual provincial tax revenues from: “Consolidated provincial and territorial government revenue and expenditures, by province and territory,” Statistics Canada, June 16, 2009, http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/ govt56a-eng.htm.

15. “Electric power generation, by class of electricity producer,” Statistics Canada, January 9, 2014, http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/ a26?lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=1270002&tabMode=dataTable&srch Lan=-1&p1=-1&p2=9.

16.

“Canada – Heating Degree-Days,” Natural Resources Canada, September 16, 2013, http://geogratis.gc.ca/api/en/nrcan-rncan/ess-sst/ fd8efb83-b73d-5442-ab60-7987c824f5fd.html.

17.

Experience of the author and a few of his classmates as poor graduate students in Vancouver, BC. An unheated winter there is not always enjoyable, but it is tolerable.

18.

“Walk Score Names Vancouver As Canada’s ‘Most Walkable City,’” The 110

ENDNOTES

Huffington Post, B.C., November 25, 2013, http://www.huffingtonpost. ca/2013/11/25/walkable-city-canada-vancouver_n_4340132.html.

19.

Lindsay Wilson, “Average household electricity use around the world,” Shrink That Footprint, http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/averagehousehold-electricity-consumption.

20. “Charging and Range,” Nissan, http://www.nissan.ca/en/electriccars/leaf/charging-range/range/.

21.

“Motor vehicle registrations, by province and territory,” Statistics Canada, June 21, 2013, http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sumsom/l01/cst01/trade14a-eng.htm.

22.

New Orleans population shrank 29% from 2001 to 2010, but had shrunk 6% before Hurricane Katrina struck in 2005.

Campbell Robertson, “ Smaller New Orleans After Katrina, Census Shows” The New York Times, February 3, 2011, http://www.nytimes. com/2011/02/04/us/04census.html?pagewanted=all.

23. Katharine Q. Seelye, “Detroit Census Confirms a Desertion Like No Other,” The New York Times, March 22, 2011, http://www.nytimes. com/2011/03/23/us/23detroit.html.

24. “Mass Exodus From the Plains,” PBS, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/ americanexperience/features/general-article/dustbowl-mass-exodusplains/.

25. “Alberta’s Fiscal Challenge,” Government of Alberta, http://alberta. ca/fiscal-challenge.cfm.

26. “Alberta’s Tax Advantage and News,” Alberta Treasury Board and Finance, March 6, 2013, http://www.finance.alberta.ca/business/tax_ rebates/.

27. John, Corbett, “Ernest George Ravenstein: The Laws of Migration, 1885,” Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science, 2011, http://www. csiss.org/classics/content/90.

28. Hydro Quebec. “Iles-de-la-Madeleine Generating Station.” http:// www.hydroquebec.com/visit/madeleine/madeleine.html.

29.

CBC News. “Hydro deal raises questions for Magdalen Islands.”

November 18, 2009. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/hydrodeal-raises-questions-for-magdalen-islands-1.779894.

30.

Sormany, Francois. “Wind energy in Gaspe-Magdalene Islands: UMQ urges prompt government action.” February 21, 2013. http://www. umq.qc.ca/uploads/files/english/13-02-22-ie-wind-energy-in-gaspemagdalen-islands.pdf.

31. . “Electricity Intensity Tables,” Environment Canada, August 9, 2012, http://www.ec.gc.ca/ges-ghg/default.asp?lang=En&n=EAF0E96A-1.

32.

“Weather Winners,” WeatherStats, http://www.weatherstats.ca/ winners.html?50.

111

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

33.

“Qulliq Energy Corporation/Nunavut Power,” Canadian Off Grid Utilities Association, http://www.cogua.ca/history/qulliq_systems.htm.

34. “Iqaluit Hydro-electric Project, Project Fact Sheet,” Qulliq Energy Corporation, February 2013, http://www.nunavutpower.com/home/ index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=913.

35.

“Qulliq Energy Corporation’s 11th Annual Report,” Qulliq Energy Corporation, June 27, 2012, http://www.nunavutpower.com/home/ index.php?option=com_docman&task=doc_download&gid=868.

36.

“Walk Score Names Vancouver As Canada’s ‘Most Walkable City,’”

37.

Jonathan Bendiner, “Interprovincial Migration Shifts in Canada,” TD Economics, June 17, 2013, 4, http://www.td.com/document/PDF/ economics/special/jb0613_interprovincial_migration.pdf.

38. “Hydro Electric,” Northwest Territories Power Corporation, http://www.ntpc.com/smart-energy/how-we-supply-power/hydro.

“Our Facilities and System Map,” SaskPower, http://www. saskpower.com/about-us/our-company-and-strategic-direction/ our-facilities-and-system-map/.

“Transmission System Facilities Location Map,” BC Hydro, 2004, https://www.bchydro.com/content/dam/BCHydro/customer-portal/ documents/corporate/safety/transmission-system-facilities-locationmap.pdf.

“Launching Alberta’s Energy Future, Provincial Energy Strategy,” Alberta Energy, http://www.energy.alberta.ca/Initiatives/1505.asp.

39. Jesse Ferreras, “Tsunami, Flooding, Storm Surge Would Wipe Out Richmond, Parts of Metro Vancouver,” The Huffington Post, B.C., November 4, 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2012/11/04/tsunamiflooding-storm-surge-vancouver-richmond-earthquake_n_2066649. html.

CHAPTER 3: NEWTON INDUSTRIAL PARK 1.

“Sensitive Urban Infill Charette Report,” Sensitive Urban Infill Project Team, November 27th, 2012, 13, https://docs.google.com/file/ d/0B0WWDAVvOPcoVWVoYnhPTnlnR0k/edit.

2. “Surrey Rapid Transit Study,” TransLink, 2013, http://www. translink.ca/en/Plans-and-Projects/Rapid-Transit-Projects/SurreyRapid-Transit-Study.aspx.

3. “Employment Lands Strategy, Surrey, British Columbia,” Cushman & Wakefield LePage, Inc., November 2008, III, http://www.surrey.ca/ files/ELSFINAL.pdf.

4. “Freight Transportation,” Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, June 2010, http://www.c2es.org/technology/factsheet/ FreightTransportation.

112

ENDNOTES

5. David Cockle, “Lower Fraser Valley British Columbia, Chilliwack to Surrey Interurban: Proposal for Rail for the Valley,” September 2010, 9, https://docs.google.com/gview?url=http://www.railforthevalley.com/ wp-content/uploads/2010/09/chilliwacktosurreyinterurbanfinalreportr. pdf&chrome=true.

6. John J. Geoghegan, “Designers Set Sail, Turning to Wind to Help Power Cargo Ships,” The New York Times, August 27, 2012, http://www. nytimes.com/2012/08/28/science/earth/cargo-ship-designers-turn-towind-to-cut-cost-and-emissions.html?_r=2&.

7.

See, for example: Rem Koolhaas, “The Generic City,” (New York: Monacelli Press, 1995), 1248-1264.

Bernard Tschumi, “Advertisements for 1976-1977,” http://www.tschumi.com/projects/19/#.

in

S,M,L,XL,

Architecture,

Jane Jacobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities (New York: Vintage Books, 1992), 188.

8. A Surrey neighbourhood of typical single family homes on quarter acre lots have a space heating demand of 120-150 MWh/hectare, only 10% of the heating density needed to establish an affordable district energy system.

District heating minimum heating density from: “Sensitive Urban Infill Charette Report,” 124.

9. Again based on the experience of the author. Freezing winter days that started with a cold shower were disheartening.

10. “Energy Use Data Handbook Tables,” Government of Canada, January 2, 2013, http://data.gc.ca/data/en/dataset/27155507-06444077-9a97-7b268dfd8e58.

CHAPTER 4: MATERIAL CONSTRAINTS 1.

John Stubbles, “Energy Use in the U.S. Steel Industry: An Historical Perspective and Future Opportunities,” September 2000, http://www1. eere.energy.gov/manufacturing/resources/steel/pdfs/steel_energy_use. pdf.

2. Theodore R. Beck, “Electrolytic Production of Aluminum,” Electrochemistry Encyclopedia, May 2008, http://electrochem.cwru. edu/encycl/art-a01-al-prod.htm.

3. Nucor Corporate Office, memo to customers “Re: 2012 Recyled Content of Nucor Steel Products,” February 19th, 2013, http://www. nucor.com/media/recycled_content_letter.pdf.

4. Rick LeBlanc, “Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Scrap Metal,” http:// recycling.about.com/od/Recycling/a/Ferrous-And-Non-Ferrous-ScrapMetal.htm.

5.

“Facts at a Glance – 2012,” The Aluminum Association, December 113

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

2012, 1, http://www.aluminum.org/Content/NavigationMenu/ NewsStatistics/StatisticsReports/FactsAtAGlance/factsataglance.pdf.

6. “Steel Recycling,” Saskatchewan Waste Reduction Council, http:// www.saskwastereduction.ca/resources/metal/steel.html.

7.

Used beverage containers are the largest source of aluminum scrap:

“Aluminum,” United States Environmental Protection Agency, June 17, 2013, http://www.epa.gov/osw/conserve/materials/alum.htm#process.

Beverage container recycling rate in Canada: “Global Aluminium Beverage Can Collection Rate,” Alcoa, http://www. alcoa.com/recycling/en/images/world_recycling_rates_chart_large.jpg.

8. “Technology for the Production of Olefins,” Tampereen Teknillinen Yliopisto, February 23, 2010, 31, https://www.tut.fi/ms/muo/polyko/ materiaalit/aA/aPDF/POLYKO_Technology_for_the_production_of_ olefins.pdf.

9.

Cement produces 5% of global carbon emissions:

“The Cement Sustainability Initiative,” World Business Council for Sustainable Development, June 2012, 4, http:// csiprogress2012.org/CSI_ProgressReport_Summary.pdf.

50% of emissions come from chemical reactions during calcination process: Madeleine Rubenstein, “Emissions from the Cement Industry,” State of the Planet, May 9, 2012, http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2012/05/09/ emissions-from-the-cement-industry/.

10. “Facts About the Plastic Bag Pandemic,” reuseit, http://www.reuseit. com/facts-and-myths/facts-about-the-plastic-bag-pandemic.htm.

11. “Medical and Health,” The Plastics Portal, plasticseurope.org/use-of-plastics/medical-health.aspx.

http://www.

12. “Embodied Energy,” Canadian Architect , http://www. canadianarchitect.com/asf/perspectives_sustainibility/measures_of_ sustainablity/measures_of_sustainablity_embodied.htm.

13. “Helical Foundation Systems Engineering Reference Manual,” MacLean Dixie HFS, April 1, 2010, 5, http://limbergh.files.wordpress. com/2011/11/engineering-reference-manual-2010-edition1.pdf.

14. “Re: Proposed Community Centre at Fraser Heights Park, Surrey, BC, Geotechnical Investigation and Report,” GeoPacific Consulatants Ltd, July 22, 2004, 7, http://www.surrey.ca/files/5170-ReportCommunityCentre-July222004.pdf.

15.

“Helical Foundation Systems Engineering Reference Manual,” 4.

16. “Soil Factsheet,” British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Fisheries, July 2001, 1, http://www.agf.gov.bc.ca/resmgmt/ 114

ENDNOTES

publist/600Series/637100-1.pdf.

17. Adam B. Robertson, Frank C. F. Lam and Raymond J. Cole, “A Comparative Cradle-to-Gate Life Cycle Assessment of Mid-Rise Office Building Construction Alternatives: Laminated Timber or Reinforced Concrete,” Buildings 2 (2012), 256.

18. “Glulam Beams,” Timber Engineering Europe, Ltd., http://www. timberengineeringeurope.com/glu_bea.html.

19. “The Case for Tall Wood Buildings,” mgb ARCHITECTURE, Equilibrium Consulting, LMDG Ltd, BTY Group, February 22, 2012, 12, http://wecbc.smallboxcms.com/database/rte/files/Tall%20Wood.pdf.

20. “Forté – Building Australia’s First Timber Highrise: Wood Solutions Presentation Atlanta Conference,” Lend Lease, February 6, 2013, 30, http://woodworks.org/wp-content/uploads/2013-WSF-ATL-Collins. pdf.

21. Joseph Lstiburek, “BSI-048: Exterior Spray Foam,” Building Science Corporation, April 12, 2011, http://www.buildingscience.com/ documents/insights/bsi-048-exterior-spray-foam.

22. Barbara Marion Ross, “Design with Energy in Mind,” (Master’s thesis, University of Waterloo, 2010), 412, https://uwspace.uwaterloo. ca/handle/10012/5076.

23. Joseph Lstiburek, “BSI-007: Prioritizing Green—It’s The Energy Stupid,” Building Science Corporation, October 28, 2008, http://www. buildingscience.com/documents/insights/bsi-007-prioritizing-green-its-the-energy-stupid.

24. “Architect Information Binder,” Eco Insulating Glass Inc., 13, http:// www.ecoglass.ca/pdf/ArchitectInformationBinder.pdf.

25. “Hybrid Curtain Wall Systems,” Unison Windows & Doors, http:// www.unisonwindows.com/products/hybrid-curtain-wall-systems/.

26. “Sharp Develops Concentrator Solar Cell with World’s Highest Conversion Efficiency of 44.4%,” Sharp, June 14, 2013, http://sharpworld.com/corporate/news/130614.html.

27. “E-Series Solar Panels,” SunPower, April 2013, 1, http:// us.sunpower.com/cs/Satellite?blobcol=urldata&blobheadername1=Con tent-Type&blobheadername2=Content-Disposition&blobheadervalue1 =application%2Fpdf&blobheadervalue2=inline%3B+filename%3Dsp_ E20_327_320_ds_en_ltr_MC4Comp_504860B.pdf&blobkey=id&blob table=MungoBlobs&blobwhere=1300286769491&ssbinary=true.

28. “Recycling,” EPDM Roofing Association, http://www.epdmroofs. org/epdm-todays-choice/recycling.

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HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

CHAPTER 5: THE NEWTON BATHS 1.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. “Photovoltaic (PV) Systems.” http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/grho/grho_009.cfm.

2. “Photovoltaic (PV) Systems,” Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/grho/grho_009.cfm.

3. Campbell, Katie. “Seattle’s Bullitt Center: Ready to Debut as World’s Greenest Office Building.” April 18, 2013. http://earthfix.opb. org/communities/article/seattles-bullitt-center-ready-to-debut-asworlds-g/.

4. Wilson, Lindsay. “Average household electricity use around the world.” http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/average-household-electricityconsumption.

CHAPTER 6: THE NEED FOR MITIGATIVE ARCHITECTURE 1.

“The Keeling Curve.”

2. Bill McKibben, “Global Warming’s Terrifying New Math,” Rolling Stone, July 19, 2012, http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/globalwarmings-terrifying-new-math-20120719?page=2.

3.

“Cost of War,” National Priorities Project , http://costofwar.com.

4. “Traffic Safety Facts: 2010 Data,” National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, http://www-nrd.nhtsa.dot.gov/Pubs/811630.pdf.

5. Daniel Gilbert, “Global Warming and Psychology,” Harvard Thinks Big, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, March 21, 2010, http://vimeo. com/10324258.

6.

“Global Warming and Psychology.”

7.

“Global Warming and Psychology.”

8. “This pretty much sums the hysteria over shark attacks in Australia,” reddit, January 8, 2014, http://www.reddit.com/r/pics/ comments/1upbjb/this_pretty_much_sums_up_the_hysteria_over_ shark/.

9. Jared Diamond, Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed (New York: Penguin Books, 2005), 114.

10. Jared Diamond, “Easter Island’s End,” Discover Magazine, August 1, 1995, http://discovermagazine.com/1995/aug/eastersend543#.

URlUDKWCmSo. 11.

“Global Warming and Psychology.”

12. Thomas N. Gladwin et al., “Why Is the Northern Elite Mind Biased Against Community, the Environment, and a Sustainable Future?” in Environment, Ethics, and Behavior: The Psychology of Environmental Valuation and Degradation (New York: Lexington Books, 1999).

13.

Randall Munroe, “Cold,” xkcd, http://xkcd.com/1321/.

116

ENDNOTES

14. Robert D. Putnam, Bowling Alone (Toronto: Simon & Shuster Paperbacks, 2000), 34.

15. Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of our Nature (Toronto: Penguin Books, 2011), 23.

16.

See, for example:

Alisdair McGregor, Cole Roberts, and Fiona Cousins, Two Degrees: The Built Environment and Our Changing Climate (New York: Routledge, 2012).

17. The earliest source that the author could find for this meme, but likely not the first to post the image: Matt Stopera, “14 Steps That Will Evolve Your Views On Gay Marriage,” BuzzFeed, May 9, 2012, http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/steps-tohelp-you-evolve-your-views-on-gay-marriag.

APPENDIX A: WHO ARE THE CARBON MIGRANTS? 1.

Statistics Canada. “Immigration in Canada: A Portrait of the Foreign-born Population, 2006 Census: Immigrants in metropolitan areas.” November 20, 2009. http://www12.statcan.ca/censusrecensement/2006/as-sa/97-557/p15-eng.cfm.

2. Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation. “Housing for Older Canadians: The Definitive Guide to the Over-55 Market.” Vol. 1. 2012, 2. http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/pdf/67514.pdf.

3. Statistics Canada. “Immigration in Canada: A Portrait of the Foreign-born Population, 2006 Census: Portraits of major metropolitan centres, Vancouver.” November 20, 2009. http://www12.statcan.ca/ census-recensement/2006/as-sa/97-557/p29-eng.cfm.

Statistics Canada. “Immigration in Canada: A Portrait of the Foreignborn Population, 2006 Census: Portraits of major metropolitan centres, Calgary.” November 20, 2009. http://www12.statcan.ca/ census-recensement/2006/as-sa/97-557/p28-eng.cfm.

Statistics Canada. “Immigration in Canada: A Portrait of the Foreignborn Population, 2006 Census: Portraits of major metropolitan centres, Edmonton.” November 20, 2009. http://www12.statcan.ca/censusrecensement/2006/as-sa/97-557/p27-eng.cfm.

4. City of Surrey. “Housing Action Plan: Background Information.”

January 2010. http://www.surrey.ca/files/ HAPBackgroundInformationRevisedJan2010.pdf.

5. Gregory, N. James. American Exodus: The Dust Bowl Migration and Okie Culture in California. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991.

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HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

APPENDIX B: THE AGRICULTURAL COUNTERCURRENT 1.

See, for example, this summary: Youngquist, Walter. “The Post-Petroleum Paradigm – and Population.”

Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies. Vol 20, No. 4. March 1999. http://www.jayhanson.us/page171.htm.

2. Statistics Canada. “Agriculture.” September 30, 2011. http://www. statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-402-x/2011000/chap/ag/ag-eng.htm.

3. Bradford, Jason. “One Acre Feeds A Person.” Farmland LP. January 13, 2012. http://www.farmlandlp.com/2012/01/one-acre-feeds-aperson/.

4. Post Carbon Institute. “Stephen Decater on Farming without Oil (transcript).” http://old.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/401.

5.

“One Acre Feeds A Person.”

APPENDIX C: MORE ON MATERIALS 1.

Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. “Carbon Capture and Storage.” http://www.c2es.org/technology/factsheet/CCS. 2. Welch, Barry. “Applying Fundamental Data to Reduce the Carbon Dioxide Footprint of Aluminum Smelters.” JOM 60, No. 11 (2008). http://www.tms.org/pubs/journals/JOM/0811/welch-0811.html.

3. ClimateTechWiki. “Aluminium Production Cycle.” 2011. http:// climatetechwiki.org/technology/alu.

4. Amato, Ivan. “Green cement: Concrete Solutions.” Nature 494 (2013). http://www.nature.com/news/green-cement-concretesolutions-1.12460.

5. Ecocem Ireland Ltd. “Frequently Asked Questions.” http://www. ecocem.ie/tools,faq.htm.

6. Calera. “Products.” http://www.calera.com/site/beneficial-reuse-ofco2/products.html.

118

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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WHO ARE THE CARBON MIGRANTS?

Extensive demographic research conducted during this project led to the conclusion that it was impossible to target housing or any other building program to one particular cultural, gender, or age group. As a result, the project’s designs aim to be robust and flexible enough to accommodate the needs of most people through a loose fit strategy favouring large, generously proportioned dwelling unit sizes.

Surrey’s population is one of Canada’s most diverse.

Nearly 40% of its current population is foreign-born.

Alberta’s population is also increasing in diversity, but not to the same extent. While Surrey’s foreign-born population is growing extremely quickly at 5.5% per year, it is unlikely that this rapid growth will continue after the elimination of fossil fuels. From its founding until the mid-1980s, Canada maintained an economically-driven immigration policy.

When the economy was strong and jobs were plentiful, immigrants were welcomed; during recessions, economic turmoil, and times of war, the number of immigrants granted entrance was greatly restricted. The Mulroney government changed this policy in order to attract votes from new immigrants, keeping immigration levels high 129

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despite economic conditions. All subsequent governments have maintained this policy to attract votes. In the face of a recession as large as that proposed by the elimination of carbon, it is unlikely that politically-driven immigration will be allowed to continue, and that the number of immigrants to Canada will drop to near zero for a number of years.

The majority of Surrey’s carbon migrants will come from Alberta and rural British Columbia. Rural areas are less diverse than urban cores since nearly 95% of immigrants choose to live in cities when they arrive in Canada,1 and Albertan cities are less diverse than Surrey, making the migrant population less diverse than the premigration population. It is impossible to know, however, whether housing provided by this project will be filled by carbon migrants from afar or local Surreyites seeking a better home than what they live in only a few blocks away.

The buildings proposed by this project will be designed for a post-carbon context, making them more attractive than nearly any housing built during the fossil fuel era.

Both locals and newcomers will seek out these homes with equal vigor.

Shifting focus from ethnicity to age, seniors are unlikely to form a significant group within the carbon migrants.

85% of seniors prefer to age in place and a significant percentage of seniors are mortgage-free homeowners that are strongly tied to their homes.2 Both of these factors will make them resistant to moving long distances, especially out of province.

Alberta and British Columbia, the two provinces most likely to contribute to Surrey’s migrant population, have similarly aged populations, with Alberta’s population being slightly younger. The tendency of young adults to migrate more than parents with children, as discussed in Chapter 2, will mean that young, single adults will compose the majority of migrants from Alberta.

Carbon migrants originating from within British Columbia, especially those from within the Lower Mainland itself, are less likely to be seeking job opportunities and more likely to be seeking denser housing close to transit 130

WHO ARE THE CARBON MIGRANTS?

350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000

1966 INVENTORY 1986 MULRONEY RUN-DOWN IMMIGRATION POLICY

WORLD WAR II

400,000

GREAT DEPRESSION

450,000

WORLD WAR I

IMMIGRANTS TO CANADA EACH YEAR

LESSER RECESSIONS

ECONOMICALLY DRIVEN IMMIGRATION

POLITICALLY DRIVEN IMMIGRATION

150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

YEAR

Figure 63.

Canadian migration history since 1900.

CITY

PERCENTAGE FOREIGN BORN

SURREY

38.3

CALGARY

23.6

EDMONTON

26.0

Table 3.

Diversity of Surrey, Calgary, and Edmonton.3

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2010

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

and their existing jobs. They are more likely to have previously lived in suburban conditions, suggesting a higher percentage of families with large household sizes.

The number of families with children in the total migrant population will not be insignificant, but will likely be far outweighed by single adults.

The preponderance of young people will cause the household size of carbon migrants to be quite small, likely near 1.7 people per dwelling unit. To provide a sense of comparison, Vancouver’s average household size, as a thriving city with large numbers of families and singles, is 2.2 people per dwelling unit.4 Surrey’s high percentage of foreign-born families—which tend to have large numbers of people living in the same household—have given Surrey an average household size of 3.0 people per dwelling unit.

Weighed against the issue of matching family size with dwelling unit size, or dwelling configuration with cultural tastes, is the issue of adaptability. Large dwelling units can accommodate small families and singles by having roommates, but small dwelling units cannot accommodate large families. Large dwelling units are also better able to accommodate different cultural tastes in housing, such as hosting an extended family for entertaining or short term lodging. Since the majority of multi-unit residential buildings in BC’s Lower Mainland favour studio and one bedroom units, and it is impossible to determine exactly who will desire to move into a given building, the tendency of this designer is to create housing favouring larger unit sizes.

Finally, a note on occupations. Economic migrants are not necessarily previous employees of a collapsed industry. Only 43% of Dust Bowl migrants, for example, were farmers.5 The ripple effects of a collapsed industry negatively impact all aspects of a local economy. While it is reasonable to assume that a large number of Alberta’s migrants will have been previously employed in the fossil fuel industry—either as construction workers, engineers, or managers—many other professions will be represented.

Teachers, accountants, police officers, and lawyers will all be represented among the migrants, as will a large number 132

WHO ARE THE CARBON MIGRANTS?

of service workers whose skills are not geographically tied and whose livelihoods previously depended upon the spending of those employed in the fossil fuel industry.

AGE 110 105 100 95 90 85 80

BRITISH COLUMBIA

BRITISH COLUMBIA

75 70 65 60 55

ALBERTA

ALBERTA

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15

CARBON MIGRANTS

10 5 0

CARBON MIGRANTS

RELATIVE PROPORTIONS

Figure 64.

Estimated age pyramid of carbon migrants arriving in the Lower Mainland vs. the populations of British Columbia and Alberta.

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HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

APPENDIX B

THE AGRICULTURAL COUNTERCURRENT

Mitigating the intensification of urbanisation during the carbon migration will be the increased demand for agriculatural labour, which is currently heavily dependent upon fossil fuels to run machinery and create fertilizers.

Much has been written about the difficulties of feeding the world’s population in an era of peak oil where petroleum inputs to agriculture become scarce.1 A carbon elimination tax would not exclude the use of petroleum products as chemical reactants to produce synthetic fertilizers. In fact, by ensuring that fossil fuels were diverted away from burning for energy, the supply of fossil fuels as chemical inputs to agriculture could be drastically extended.

Natural gas is currently used in an agricultural context to create hydrogen, which is then used to make ammonia through the Haber process. Carbon dioxide is a chemical product, but this can be directly reacted with ammonia to produce urea, a major fertilizer component. The fertilizer industry could thus theoretically eliminate carbon emissions for some of its products, but would have to find substitute energy inputs to supply the high temperatures (700-1100°C) needed for the steam reforming of hydrogen from natural gas and the high temperatures (300-550 134

THE AGRICULTURAL COUNTERCURRENT

째C) and pressures (150-250 atmospheres) typically used during the Haber process. Production of ammonium nitrate, another major fertilizer component, requires ammonia but does not chemically require the carbon dioxide. Ammonium nitrate production would need to source its hydrogen from electrolysis of water.

In any case, if synthetic fertilizer continues to be used, it will be at much greater expense than present. Tradeoffs between fertilizer use and increased manual inputs to farming will therefore have to be considered. Similar tradeoffs will also have to be considered regarding farming machinery which is now almost exclusively run on fossil fuels. Both of these shifts will cause a great increase in demand for manual inputs to farm labour.

Currently, only about 1.8% of Canadians work directly in agricultural production, while this number was closer to 33% in 1921 before farming machinery was extensively adopted.2 The current North American diet requires about 1 acre of arable land per person.3 Current organic farming techniques that make no use of machinery or artificial fertilizers require about 0.25 workers per acre to supply this food,4 meaning that approximately 25% of Canadians would have to become engaged in farming in a wholesale shift to fully organic agriculture powered by draft animals.

If we consider that some fertilizer use will continue, and that technological advances currently applied to electric cars will be implemented on farm machinery, than this shift will not be so drastic that a quarter of the country will need to become farmers. Local solar and wind energy generation is, after all, more feasible outside of an urban context. The percentage of Canadians employed in farming is therefore likely to increase from the present 1.8% to between 5% and 10%.

Eliminating carbon will therefore push more people into rural areas, but this shift will not be great enough to reverse the flow towards dense cities. The urbanrural divide within the country will thus become more pronounced following the elimination of carbon, as more people live at the lower and higher ends of the population density spectrum. Increases in urban and rural populations 135

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

will be fueled by drastic reductions in middle density suburban communities.

The societal and economic value of farmland will increase for two reasons. Firstly, crop yields decrease drastically with reductions in fertilizer, pesticides, and irrigation: about 75% of North American grain yield is attributable to these inputs, all of which will be more expensive without burning oil.5 More arable land will have to be used as farmland to make up for the losses caused by eliminating carbon. The sprawling expansion of cities will likely be reversed as current suburbs and outlying areas are converted to cropland. Adjacencies between farms and high density urban areas, already present in Metropolitan Vancouver’s Agricultural Land Reserve, will become more pronounced as increasingly dense cityscapes abut and surround working farms. These adjacencies will likely be embraced as the increased cost of transporting food will make urban proximity to farms attractive. Farm proximity to cities will be similarly attractive as the “waste” inputs of urea and human manure can be diverted from urban treatment plants and applied directly to soils.

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APPENDIX C

MORE ON MATERIALS

Reduction reactions are necessary for the production of metals. Most metals do not exist in their pure form in nature because that is a high energy, unstable state.

Metals instead bond with other elements, often oxygen.

This is how metals exist as ores in the ground, and it is toward this state that metals revert when they are exposed to the environment. Every bridge, boat, or bicycle that has corroded or rusted is an example of this energetic trend.

To transform metals from ores into architecturally useful products, the oxygen molecules attached to the metals must be removed. Industry has followed natureâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s lead and has used carbon as its primary reducing agent.

After carbon reduces the metal ores, it is not sequestered within the material but exhausted as carbon dioxide.

Thus, even if the energy associated with the production of architectural metals were shifted from fossil fuels to renewable sources, carbon emissions would still arise because metal production is chemically dependent upon carbon.

STEEL

Steel, the most commonly used architectural metal, is produced from iron which is most commonly made in a 137

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS

blast furnace. Coke, a high-carbon fuel resembling coal, is added to the furnace to produce carbon monoxide, which acts as the reducing agent to change iron ore to pig iron.

Each tonne of iron produced using this method produces 1.18 tons of carbon dioxide. In developing nations which do not have the resources to produce coke, iron may be directly reduced with carbon monoxide made from natural gas or coal. This process produces 0.59 tonnes of carbon dioxide for each tonne of iron, assuming hydrogen reduces at the same rate as carbon monoxide.

If new steel is to be made in the post-carbon era, these reduction reactions must be changed in one of the following ways:  the carbon emissions must be sequestered at great energetic cost and with the danger that they will escape to the atmosphere at a later date due to human error or storage vessel failure. Carbon capture and storage technologies can currently capture only 90% of carbon emissions, meaning the will have to be improved if they are to be viable in the post-carbon era.1  after the metals are reduced by carbon, the resulting carbon dioxide must be recycled back into carbon to be used again. This recycling process is essentially a combustion reaction in reverse and will require enormous energetic inputs.  different single-use reducing agents must be used in place of carbon and then responsibly disposed.

These reducing agents will be more expensive than carbon, or else they would be in use now.  different recyclable reducing agents must be used in place of carbon. Reversing the reduction reaction in order to recycle these chemicals will require enormous energetic inputs, just as with recycling carbon dioxide back into carbon.

ALUMINUM

Aluminum, the second most-commonly used architectural metal, is chemically dependent upon carbon dioxide emissions during the electrolysis of alumina to aluminum.

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MORE ON MATERIALS

Electrolysis takes place in an electrochemical cell where solid carbon is used as an anode that is consumed by the reaction. In the most efficient modern smelters, cach tonne of aluminum produces 1.66 tonnes of carbon dioxide purely from this reaction.2 Despite decades of research into inert anodes, the chemical conditions within the cell mean that a completely inert anode is unlikely to ever be developed and more chemically resistant anodes are still decades away from commercialization.3 CONCRETE

Concrete production is chemically dependent upon carbon dioxide emissions during the calcination of calcium carbonate to lime in the manufacture of Portland cement. This reaction releases about 0.5 tonnes of carbon dioxide for every tonne of cement produced. Alternatives to Portland cement, such as using fly ash or blast furnace slag, are dependent upon coal power plants4 and cokefired steel blast furnaces5 which cannot operate in the postcarbon era. The Californian company Calera manufactures calcium carbonate that replaces Portland cement, but only in non-structural applications such as board products and decorative elements. In construction applications it currently can only replace 15% of the Portland cement in a concrete mixture.6

139

THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA SCHOOL OF ARCHITECTURE AND LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE ARCHITECTURE PROGRAM

READING ROOM AUTHORIZATION IN PRESENTING THIS REPORT IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE ADVANCED DEGREE IN THE ARCHITECTURE PROGRAM AT THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, I AGREE THAT THE ARCHITECTURE READING ROOM SHALL MAKE IT FREELY AVAILABLE FOR REFERENCE AND STUDY. I FURTHER AGREE THAT PERMISSION FOR EXTENSIVE COPYING OF THIS REPORT FOR SCHOLARLY PURPOSES MAY BE GRANTED BY THE CHAIR OF ARCHITECTURE OR BY HIS OR HER REPRESENTATIVES. IT IS UNDERSTOOD THAT COPYING OR PUBLICATION OF THIS THESIS FOR FINANCIAL GAIN SHALL NOT BE ALLOWED WITHOUT MY WRITTEN PERMISSION.

CHRISTOPHER OLAND NAME OF AUTHOR

SIGNATURE

HOUSING CANADA’S CARBON MIGRANTS TITLE

MASTER OF ARCHITECTURE DEGREE

ARCHITECTURE PROGRAM PROGRAM

2014

YEAR OF GRADUATION CEREMONY

31 JANUARY 2014 DATE