1
Global Brain Trade
Source: The World Bank Data V覺z
2
Source:NBER, 18067, Franzoni et al.
3
How can hi-tech come to Turkey? GĂźven Sak Swiss Turkish Business Forum Ä°stanbul, November 22, 2012
4
Framework Dynamism and vitality of Turkey Fast growth companies in Turkey All that activity but not much hi-tech Can hi-tech come automatically? • No
Why all those scientists prefer to go to Switzerland? Can innovation survive in a country with a large
domestic demand base? • It can, in the States
Concluding comments
Slide 5
Making Turkey’s star entrepreneurs visible Average annual growth rate (2008-2010, %)
210
77 1,8
10
• Turkey 25 is an effort to identify and celebrate high growth companies. • The pool of applicants include self-identified high growth companies with minimum conditions: 2008 revenue > 100,000 USD; 2010 revenue > 500,000 USD Number of employees ≥ 10 (full time)
Source: TurkStat, Turkey 25 survey, Fortune 500 data 2008-2010
Slide 6
How does Turkey 25 compare to their American counterparts?
Top 25 11,723%
Top 25 210% Top 25 72% Source: AllWorld Network Database, Inc. Magazine, Inner city rankings
Slide 7
How does Turkey 25 compare to their Middle eastern counterparts? Faster & Larger Average growth rate (%, 2008-2010) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Average size (Million USD, 2010) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Source: AllWorld Network Database
8
Where AllWorld companies are on the economic map
Slide 9
Top-10
Today’s challenge in Turkey: Can we become a top-10 economy by 2023? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
17 18 19 20
Nominal GDP (billion USD)
Output per worker (thousand USD)
14,582 5,879 5,498 3,310 2,560 2,246 2,088 2,051 1,730 1,574 1,480 1,407 1,040 1,014 925 783
104.9 7.9 87.9 85.4 99.5 77.6 94.8 89.7 4.1 92.4 21.2 76.3 23.7 42.6 82.2 91.1
Turkey
735
32.5
Indonesia Switzerland Poland
707 524 469
6.5 113.4 31.3
USA China Japan Germany France UK Brazil Italy India Canada Russia Spain Mexico S. Korea Australia Netherlands
Source: The World Bank World Development Indicators and TEPAV calculations
Slide 10
Next challenge: Increasing the share of high-tech exports High-technology exports (% of manufactured exports) 0
10
15
20
25
30
35
29 27 20
Top-10
China USA France UK Japan Canada Germany Brazil Italy India S, Korea Switzerland Netherlands Mexico Australia Indonesia Russia Spain Poland Turkey
5
19 18 15 14 12 7 6 31 23 22 19 12 11 7 5 5
2 Source: United Nations COMTRADE
11
Share of R&D spending in GDP, Turkey. 1996-2009 (%)
0.73
2008
0.48
0.72
2007
0.53
0.58
2006
0.47
0.48
2000
0.45
0.49
1999
0.54
0.59
2005
0.85
0.52
2009
2004
2003
2002
2001
1998
1997
1996
0.37
12
Benchmarking: R&D inputs & outputs of selected countries Red: If Turkey is worse Green: If Turkey is better
Japan Korea Germany Sweden USA Switzerland Austria France Holland Belgium UK Canada Italy China Mexico
# of R&D Private Quality of Researchers Share in Sector share research in 1000 GDP in R&D institutions people 3.33 2.53 10.40 11 3.36 2.53 10.02 24 2.78 1.88 7.74 10 3.62 2.55 10.46 9 2.79 2.02 9.80 6 3.00 2.20 5.59 2 2.75 1.94 8.46 21 2.21 1.37 8.87 15 1.82 0.86 5.44 8 1.96 1.32 8.39 4 1.85 1.12 8.25 3 1.92 1.00 8.58 16 1.27 0.65 4.10 43 1.70 1.25 1.48 44 0.37 0.18 0.88 49
Total patent applications
Patents for a Industrial million Design people applications
464108 177937 169971 21520 422571 37793 10822 64017 32091 11402 49849 23647 27200 307593 1592
3641.48 3601.23 2078.47 2294.70 1366.00 4829.06 1289.90 983.73 1931.40 1046.46 801.03 692.93 449.71 229.92 14.04
66756 69970 109071 16954 80456 33393 12486 60826 26303 11152 50277 7210 53171 421324 2155
Average
2.32
1.56
7.23
18
121,474
1683.34
68100
Turkey
0.85
0.34
2.71
88
4196
57.68
10450
Source: OECD, WIPO, KRE, WDI
13
Benchmarking: Labor market efficiency and quality of labor force Red: If Turkey is worse Green: If Turkey is better Labor market efficiency (ranking) Austria 32 Belgium 50 Canada 4 China 41 France 66 Germany 53 Italy 127 Japan 20 Korea 73 Mexico 102 Holland 17 Switzerland 1 Sweden 25 UK 5 USA 6
Share of vocational Share of engineers Hourly wage in PISA math score school graduates in total in total graduates manufacturing (USA=100), (2009) population 2010 2010 2008
496 515 527 497 513 483 529 546 419 526 534 494 492 487
7,3 17,8 24,2 3,2 11,5 9,6 19,5 12,2 1,1 2,5 10,8 8,8 10,2 9,9
16,6 11,1
15,7 15,2 14,6 23,8 22,8 8,8 15,2 19,3 8,2
118,2 145,9 102,7 4,0 116,7 125,9 96,2 92,1 48,0 17,9 117,8 153,1 126,1 84,7 100,0
Source
KRE
OECD
OECD
OECD
ABD İİB, SGK
Average Turkey
41,5 124
489,2 445
10,6 n/a
15,6 13,9
103,2 12,2
14
Benchmarking: Quality of institutions Red: If Turkey is worse Green: If Turkey is better IPR protection (ranking)
Effectiveness of WJP Administrative Audit and reporting Conflict resolution Law (Score) (ranking) (ranking)
Effectiveness of anti-trust law (ranking)
Holland UK Japan Belgium Sweden Switzerland Canada Germany Austria France USA China Mexico Korea İtaly
5 6 18 24 12 4 17 10 16 9 29 51 77 40 62
0.79 0.79 0.80 0.67 0.90 0.72 0.77 0.75 0.72 0.70 0.50 0.53 0.69 0.55
8 11 36 45 5 4 9 20 25 37 35 44 100 80 139
7 13 39 21 11 23 6 26 18 34 37 72 55 75 103
1 9 15 30 3 16 21 24 29 20 17 54 115 38 100
Average
25
0.70
40
36
33
Turkey
86
0.52
61
63
31
Source: Global Competitiveness Report, 2011; World Justice Project
15
Benchmarking: Environment related indicators Red: If Turkey is worse Green: If Turkey is better
Sweden Canada Belgium USA Holland Switzerland Korea Austria UK Germany France Japan China Mexico İtaly
1.8 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.1 2.3 0.8 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.9
Environmental innovativeness of the private sector 13.8 12.8 10.9 12.6 13.1 13.6 12.4 12.9 13.2 13.9 12.5 14.24 10.6 10.3 12.9
Average Turkey
1.5 -0.2
12.7 9.2
Effectiveness of environment governance
Source: Environmental Sustainability Index 2005
Number of firms with ISO 14001 certificate per 1 billion GDP 9.9 1.3 1.1 0.3 2.5 5.3 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.5 4.0 0.9 0.5 2.1 2.5 0.3
0,183 0,176 0,161
Portugal France Poland
0,065 0,053 0,048
Italy Turkey Austria
0,04
0,018 0,015
Ireland Bulgaria Ukraine
0,045
0,067
Romania
Czech Rep.
0,068
0,085
0,101
Greece
Spain
Germany
0,132
0,186
EU average
Netherlands
0,195
0,2
0,202
Luxemburg
Hungary
Switzerland
0,219
Denmark
0 0,227
0,1
Finland
0,2 0,228
0,3
Norway
0,314
0,4
Belgium
0,432
0,5
Sweden
0,566
0,6
UK
16
Comparison of private equity investments in Europe and Turkey Private Equity/GDP ( %)
Source: EVCA, 2010
17
Concluding remarks It’s hard to become rich without hi-tech Stuck between efficiency and innovation
Hi-tech doesn’t come automatically Need for a deliberate reform process
Creating incentives for innovation in a large
domestic market is a tough business No major reform since 2007 in Turkey 2023 targets are necessary but not
sufficient
Good for coordination but need substance