Will the Covid-19 pandemic change human history? Amy Gaisford

Will the Covid-19 pandemic change human history?

Amy Gaisford Lower Sixth

Throughout history it is evident that times of crisis often result in big changes, both good and bad. The Covid-19 pandemic has demanded a rapid global response, becoming one of the largest scale disasters in human history. It is impossible to know for certain how this outbreak will impact people’s lives for years to come. However, by looking at the social, political, economic and scientific effects of the virus so far, and by comparing those caused by other historical events, we can try to predict whether it will change human history. economic downturn that resulted in the loss of jobs and savings. Covid-19 has put the global economy into recession and has affected the financial health of countries around the world. In the UK the closure of many businesses, and the winding down of the initial furloughing scheme, has led to a sharp rise in unemployment rates. It could also be argued that whilst the furloughing scheme has helped many, it could mean the UK will be paying off this huge debt for decades. There are also fears that the high street will never recover. Many businesses that rely on ‘in person shopping’ have been forced to close due to the national lockdowns. With no alternative, people have switched to online shopping. As the convenience of shopping from home becomes clear, will this cause a permanent change in consumer behaviour?

Some of the social effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are already revealing themselves. Because of the virus’ rapid spread, extensive History shows us that health crises such as lockdown measures have been implemented the Black Death, Spanish Flu and Covid-19 across the world. In many cases people can economically change the world because have only been allowed out for ‘essential’ they introduce financial hardship, which trips such as food shopping or exercise and tends to affect the poor the most. Therefore have not been allowed to socialise freely. they highlight and exacerbate economic Due to the nature of the virus, one might inequality - it happens disproportionately question whether we will ever be able to to people living in crowded, diseased gather again without restrictions. The conditions, having to go to work in close Health Foundation has recently published contact with others and unable to feed a briefing paper raising concerns that the themselves as healthily. This can act as a Pandemic may lead to a widening of precatalyst for change, sparking dissatisfaction existing mental health inequalities. This and anger. But these crises have also proved suggests that a lack of social freedom has to cause economic advancement - for had a negative impact on people’s mental example in the 1850s John Snow was able health. to isolate the source of cholera in water, leading to Bazalgette’s creation of the The popularity of video conferencing has London Sewer system. This improvement in increased throughout lockdown, providing access to clean water had a great economic a way for families, schools and businesses impact because it significantly increased a to keep in touch whilst not being able to poor person’s quality of life, length of life meet in person. Our new way of working and productivity, which led remotely can be seen to a positive impact on the [T]he Covid-19 as a positive and a wider economy. However, we are now pandemic is unprecedented. negative - on the one hand it might cause isolation and highlight living in a global economy tech poverty. However, and the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic is remote working has also enabled us to unprecedented. Looking back at history, the become more nimble in how we work. It Wall Street crash of 1929 caused a global raises the question, will businesses ever depression, forcing unemployment rates to return to in person meetings, despite a skyrocket and living standards to plummet. vaccine on the horizon? Online meetings The 2008 recession was a period of global are seen as far more convenient, and cut

carbon emissions and costs by reducing travel, whether that’s by car or by plane. This social change could have a huge positive knock-on effect on future climate change, by encouraging people not to make unnecessary trips. It certainly marks a shift in attitude.

Some of the biggest social changes in history can be linked directly to similar pandemics, and other crises. It is clear that these events can cause inequality between the rich and poor, but growing inequality can lead to profound social change. For example, the Black Death in 1347 - 1351 led to the decline of serfdom, and WW1 led to the increasing impact of women in the workplace - women were needed to work so they were allowed to be emancipated a little more. Crises can change social behaviour as people become more fearful of others, for example the Black Death prompted an increase in antisemitism. Similar types of suspicions have become evident with the Covid-19 pandemic, as the blame for the origin of the virus has been placed on certain countries. This could have a detrimental effect on international relations for years to come.

Scientists across the world have been working relentlessly to create a vaccine for Covid-19, and arguably they’ve had to work harder and faster than ever before. It has been proven that when there is a great medical challenge, scientists are inspired by it, pushing them to accelerate their work and advancements. Currently the scientific community has achieved amazing things, and it has been pushed to do so by the need to combat Covid-19. A new system that can predict how a protein folds into a 3D structure has been discovered. This is crucial in the design of new drugs. It also could help future scientists understand human diseases better, including cancer, dementia and infectious diseases. In 1854 British physician John Snow was able to isolate the source of Cholera outbreaks in Soho. He did this by mapping out the cases and identifying the source as a contaminated water pump. By doing so he changed history forever, helping future scientists understand the spread of certain diseases better. This breakthrough meant a significant rise in quality of life and the productivity of the poorest people in society. Our new ability to create millions of vaccines when necessary could, if we choose, do the same for many poorer countries riven by the impact of diseases such as malaria, Ebola and HIV.

The way a country handles critical situations can also cause political shifts, and this can be seen throughout history. WW1 not only led to the emancipation of women, but also the rise of the Labour Party and trade unions. The UK election of 1945 demonstrated the people’s need for a more liberal leader, who would implement reforms and change. This meant Attlee won, despite Churchill’s impressive wartime record. The management of the Covid-19 pandemic appears to have undermined public confidence in the current Conservative government. It has been accused of not responding to the virus fast enough, and criticised for not putting the country into lockdown earlier. The mishandling of the crisis may be seen as an opportunity for the opposition. Voters might change their political priorities. Polls from YouGov display a sharp increase in disapproval for the government from late March 2020. Currently just 30% of people approve of the government, compared to 50% disapproving.

the ever rising death rate, President Donald Trump was voted out, with the Democrat candidate Joe Biden winning the 2020 election. Analysis by academics writing for ‘The Conversation’ suggested that if cases were 5-10% lower, Trump was more likely to have won re-election. The result of this election could mean big changes in human history. The two candidates had polar opposite beliefs, clashing on issues such as taxation, immigration and climate change. Crucially, by electing Biden, the new administration will almost completely reverse the current Currently White House’s approach the scientific community to climate change. This provides a more positive outlook for the health of has achieved the planet. amazing things. It’s clear that Covid-19 has already significantly impacted life as we know it in the present day. Decisions made now will have an effect in the future and could change the course of human history. The political effects, including the election of Joe Biden into office, may prove to be a crucial turning The recent US election has displayed a point, especially on the American approach political shift, that will have implications to climate change. Economies will take for years to come. After what is perceived years, or even decades to recover, impacting to be poor management of Covid-19, and the lives of future generations. The Covid-19 pandemic has not only prevented people from having social gatherings, but it has fundamentally changed how people behave and think. Perhaps the biggest change we have already witnessed is the great strides the scientific community has made in a matter of months, creating a safe vaccine that is already being administered. This will not only influence the outcome of the current pandemic, but of future global health challenges. What is for certain - Covid-19, has and will continue to, change human history.