NOW i KNOW ! CIKALDANA NEWSLETTER NO. 1 - 2014
GREETINGS FROM CIKALDANA We proudly present you the first edition of our quarterly newsletter. Cikaldana is a financial advisory that focuses its business in personal financial advisory and financial planning services. Part of our commitment is to provide a thoroughful research that is useful both, for our internal needs and for giving insights to our clients through this newsletter. We will release articles in a variety of topics relevant to the economy, financial planning, research and data, as well as light readings. Please do not hesitate to visit our website or contact us should you need more information.
On this issue: Economic Update Q4 2013 2 Planning For Cambridge, UK 10 Select Mutual Funds (Reksadana) for 2014
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Jakarta Malls Evolution 5
We hope this newsletter could be of use to you and enhance your financial wisdom.
Regards, Fitrah Avianti Marketing Director
Do you know? by 2025, the life expectancy at birth of men in Indonesia is 71.5 years and women is 76.1 years (Survey Penduduk 2000)
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Economy Corner
ECONOMIC UPDATE Q4 2013 2013 - Challenging year for Indonesia’s macro economy
Indonesian economy has faced many ups and downs in 2013, with two major issues being noticed during the period. On June, the government increased the price of subsidized fuel which gave negative impact to the people’s purchasing power and to the domestic consumption. Rupiah against US$ has also experienced a rally of depreciations and stood at Rp 12,270 per US$ by end of 2013, compared to Rp 9,670 a year before. The 2013 rate of inflation was reported at 8.38%. The hike in inflation was seen as the impact of rising consumer price index (CPI) around late June as the government raised the price of subsidized fuels. Looking ahead, the government has set the target of inflation at a rate of 4.50%±1 in 2014.
End-Dec 2013
End-Sep 2013
Rp 12,270
Rp 11,613
Inflation
8.38%
8.40%
BI Rate
7.50%
7.25%
IHSG
4,274
4,316
Exchange Rate US$
Source: Bank Indonesia, IDX
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The BI rate was kept at 7.50% at end-December, rose 25 bps from November. This policy was taken in respond to the large current account deficit amid global uncertainty. The Jakarta composite index (IHSG) was closed at 4,274. The index is expected to increase in 2014 following the positive sentiment of Indonesia's legislative and presidential elections event scheduled on April 2014. The event is expected to trigger an increased domestic consumption and other economic activities.
QoQ Movement
End-Dec 2012
Rp 9,670
4.30%
5.75%
4,317
YoY Movement
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Financial Planning Corner
PLANNING FOR CAMBRIDGE, UK Investing for your children education is better to start earlier
United Kingdom, UK is one of the favorite destination Indonesians sending their children for education overseas. Sending children for overseas education requires quite a significant amount of fund to cover the tuition fees, college fees, living expenses and other costs like airfare tickets. To give you with some ideas of how much it would cost to send your child to college in UK, this article describes planning a child’s undergraduate study to the University of Cambridge.
If your child is currently at his or her 8 years old, he or she will start the college 11 years later. The estimated total cost needs to be prepared later will be Rp 4.3 billion, inflations considered. With this number, you can plan to achieve it by investing your money in total sum of Rp 335 million into an equity mutual fund, starting right now. Alternatively, an installment of investment of Rp 5.6 million permonth into the same investment instrument, starting right now.
Let’s say your child is to take the Information and Computer Engineering course at the University of Cambridge, the study will take four years to complete. Assuming that you parents will visit your child once a year, the estimated total cost needed right now will be GBP 155,000 or about Rp 3 billion in current equivalent. Voila!
If you have a 2-years old baby, you can also plan his or her education of 17 years later, right now. The number is Rp 5.7 billion as for the total cost. As for the investment, a Rp 115 million for the lump sum investment or a Rp 1.6 million monthly investment, into an equity mutual fund.
Once you understand how much the cost you need to prepare right now, next step you must know is the “when”. When will your children start the schooling? Time is of importance as you need to consider the rising costs or inflations over the time, and as it determines your strategy to investment. Yes, investment. Whether you have the money right now moreover if you don’t, investing is needed.
Child's Age
In the case that your child is currently starting high school, you have 3 years until the college starts. The number is Rp 3.0 billion for the total cost need to be prepared at about right now. One possible investment advice is to put lump sum investment in total of Rp 1.8 billion or monthly investment of Rp 62 million, into a mixed instruments of: time deposit, balanced mutual fund, and equity mutual fund.
2 years
8 years
16 years
Fund Required (IDR)
5.7 billion
4.3 billion
3.0 billion
Lumpsum Investment
115.0 million
335.0 million
1.8 billion
1.6 million
5.6 million
62.0 million
Monthly Investment
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Research Corner
10 SELECT MUTUAL FUNDS (REKSADANA) FOR 2014 Mutual funds continued their charms as investment alternatives
Indonesia’s mutual funds industry has been uplifting within the past 10 years. The mutual funds are continuing their charms as alternative investments particularly amongst the country’s young population. This is because of better financial literacy, that they now look upon better investment options than conventional bank savings; and also that people can start investing to it with as low as Rp 100,000. Closing the year 2013, Cikaldana prepared a list of select mutual funds for consideration on investing in year 2014. The list is intended for investors in general, thus in selecting the mutual funds we look on the following criterias: “Experience”: We select the funds which have been in the market for more than five years. The argument is that these funds have endured and survived a crashed market. The investment strategies applied by their fund managers have proven their past survival and are likely to survive further in the future.
No. Product Name
“Fund size”: The size of funds a product manages indicates both, the investors’ level of confidence towards those funds and the fund manager’s performance in accumulating the funds. We select funds with a net asset value (NAV) above Rp 1.0 trillion for an equity-mutual-funds and NAV above Rp 100.0 billion for a balanced-mutual-fund. “Performance”: The performance refers to fund’s growth since its inception, in particular the average annual growth of NAV per unit, as of December 2013. We select 5 highest growth on both equity and balanced mutual funds. The list was made based on the data and past performance of each mutual fund and it does not reflect a projection for their future performance. Every investor should consider their investment objectives and their appetite on risks. Below is the list of select mutual funds for year 2014 investment by Cikaldana.
Inception Date
NAV/Unit as of Dec 2013 NAV/Unit
Average Annual Growth Net Asset Value as of Dec 2013 as of Nov 2013 Average Annual Growth Asset Under Management (AUM)
Equity-mutual-funds 1 Panin Dana Maxima 2 Schroder Dana Prestasi Plus 3 Manulife Dana Saham 4 BNP Paribas Ekuitas 5 Schroder Dana Prestasi
April 7, 1997 September 25, 2000 August 1, 2003 February 28, 2001 May 29, 1997
Rp 58,283.44 Rp 21,422.89 Rp 9,733.27 Rp 14,429.03 Rp 25,595.10 NAV/Unit
27.62% Rp 6.12 trillion 26.02% Rp 8.36 trillion 24.63% Rp 2.52 trillion 23.12% Rp 5.16 trillion 21.59% Rp 2.94 trillion Average Annual Growth Asset Under Management (AUM)
Balanced-mutual-funds 1 Maestro Berimbang 2 Panin Dana Unggulan 3 SAM Dana Berkembang 4 First State Multi Strategy Fund 5 Danareksa Syariah Berimbang
December 16, 2006 June 13, 2005 November 5, 1997 September 6, 2005 December 1, 2000
Rp 3,937.87 Rp 5,275.90 Rp 11,925.86 Rp 3,159.53 Rp 4,985.24
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21.63% 21.61% 16.66% 14.96% 13.15%
Rp 120.28 billion Rp 320.07 billion Rp 119.57 billion Rp 107.57 billion Rp 115.72 billion
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Lifestyle Corner
JAKARTA MALLS EVOLUTION Changing lifestyle creates new trends in malls’ design
If you have grown up in Jakarta during the 90s, most likely you know the names like Sarinah, Ratu Plaza, or Pasar Raya. They are the places for most of you went for shopping of hanging-out, during that era. Which places – shopping centers or malls – do you go for shopping or hang-out now? You may have seen so many malls established in Jakarta. You may also see how newer malls have developed and came up with newer faces and fresher visitor experiences to offer. You may agree that until now we have seen three generations of malls. The first generation of malls are the ones mentioned earlier: Sarinah, Ratu Plaza, and Pasar Raya. These malls are characterized by the department store styled space, with rows of hanging poles to showcase clothes, and “narrow” visitors’ walk ways that you might feel you were walking cramped in a maze of clothes. Plaza Indonesia then came as the first mall to milestone the malls of second generation. These second generation malls appeared with a row of boutique-styled stores, a vast walking space for visitors, and having a plaza at the center for holding special events or exhibitions. Visitors can just walk besides shopping. These malls have begun the
notion of mall as an alternative place for family recreation. Malls of the second generation currently make the majority list of malls in Jakarta. Other examples are Plaza Senayan, Senayan City, Pondok Indah Mall 1 and 2, and Gandaria City. The mall of the third generation has started by the recently opened Lotte Shopping Avenue, in Casablanca area in Jakarta. So what differentiate this third generation mall? First, this is the only mall that provide so many seats for visitors to sit and rest, unlike the malls of earlier generation. Not to mention much better public facilities like restrooms, mothers’ room and many kids play area. Second, this is the only mall that appear to have a strong appreciation to art. More than just being fully featured with artworks in its interior, it contains a quite big art school there. The third generation mall appears to be more humane and try to serve the needs beyond basics like clothing and food. Despite the moratorium of new mall development in Jakarta, I look forward to see more malls evolve to be more humane.
PT Cikaldana Korpora Sovereign Plaza 21st Floor, Jl. TB Simatupang Kav.36, Jakarta 12430 P: +62 21 2939 8727, F: +62 21 2939 8898
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