The future of logistics and transport

This article is the first in a series that our CILTNZ Vice President, Diane Edwards, will be publishing in our journal over the next year.

In the series, she will explore why it is important to understand what is happening in the world around us, including what is happening in other specialist domains and industries, and use this to think about our own strategies.

How geology and nuclear physics will impact transport and logistics

As an introduction to looking at the future, it is important to understand that disruptive change often comes from leftfield. Rarely does transformational innovation start within the industry it targets. We all know about Amazon, Uber, Airbnb. All very successful companies in retail, public transport, and hospitality respectively. Yet none of them started from within the industries they now dominate. As technology companies, they were not bound into existing business models, nor hindered by people suffering from “educated incapacity”, i.e., those who know so much about how their own industry works that they are blind to any other way of doing things. When change happens that we initiate, it is innovation. When it is innovation that others do that changes us, it is disruption. Businesses that ignore what others are doing are ripe for disruption. So, we do market intelligence, monitor our competitors, survey our industry, and do analysis of what the top transport and logistics companies are doing and what the experts think. This is important, of course, but I would argue not enough. For the reality in today’s accelerating business environment is that the innovation that is ultimately going to change the way you do things, influence your markets, lure away your customers, are almost certainly going to come from outside your own industry. In this series, I will look at some of the interesting changes that are happening across a number of fields and disciplines, that will potentially bring significant change to transport and logistics. Some of it will potentially make our lives easier; others will make us question whether our business models are fit for the future. The quality of your strategic analysis will determine which is which.

Here is an example for you to be thinking about, which has emerged from geology and nuclear physics. Nanodiamonds, also called microdiamonds, form in metamorphic rocks when the rocks are under extreme pressure. They are called nanodiamonds because they are typically less than 1 micrometre (0.001 of a millimetre). Geologists use them to identify continental collision zones and show that the crust has penetrated deeper than 120 kilometres below the surface.

Nuclear physicists also noticed that nanodiamonds are formed as a by-product of nuclear explosions and discovered they can be extracted from the nuclear waste of a power plant. The difference between these nuclear explosion nanodiamonds and those occurring naturally in rock, is the level of radioactivity. However, due to the size of the nanodiamonds, the radioactivity is miniscule and reportedly no greater than that occurring in nature (something being vigorously tested at present). This is where it gets interesting. The radioactivity has the potential to create a long-life battery which could have a life of several hundreds or even thousands of years – yes, thousands of years! Generating a virtually inexhaustible source of energy from radioactive material has long been discussed and is already employed in a variety of nondiamond-based technologies. Microdiamond batteries have, until recently, been a theoretical concept, but current developments suggest the reality is closer than first thought. NDB, Inc. is a company that is actively marketing nanodiamond batteries as the saviour of the planet. They believe that the batteries, which effectively convert radioactive decay energy from nuclear waste into energy, simultaneously find a use for discarded nuclear waste and solve the problem of limited life batteries. When these batteries are used to power vehicles, offices, factories etc., the need to burn fossil fuels diminishes, while the extremely long life means that the current issue of battery disposal almost disappears. The company, which won Orano 2020 (recognising innovation start-ups in nuclear physics) explains how this is done in the video at https://youtu.be/z_P1VNh3Wt4. For anyone sceptical about this as an idea from naïve young entrepreneurs, or those needing some academic validation and detailed explanation, using nuclear diamonds as an alternative power source is discussed by Professor Tom Scott of the University of Bristol. One of his lectures on this subject can be seen at www.youtube.com/ watch?v=9fgf0bLuDFk. I am guessing that many of you working in the transport industry do not spend a lot of time monitoring the world of nuclear physics, so may not have heard about this emerging technology. However, its implications for transport and logistics are, I hope, now becoming more obvious. There are hopes that nanodiamond powered batteries for vehicles may come on to the market as early as 2024, subject to the normal regulative processes that need to happen. This could mean that many of the current electric vehicles coming on to the market could be obsolete, or hopefully could still be used but will need adaptation. Of course, there are still many unknowns. The likely cost of a battery is not yet known. Governments, especially in New Zealand with its anti-nuclear stance, may hold up implementation while they explore safety and, I think cynically, worry about how they can replace the tax take on fossil fuels. There may be storage and fitting issues to overcome and perhaps there may be requirements to completely design vehicles. And in warehousing, existing infrastructure may be an issue, if not in the warehouse itself, then the infrastructure of the major power companies that supply them. No doubt there will be other challenges to overcome. Yet the change will come, and if not in two years, then maybe three or four. When looking at the implications for your own company, armed with this knowledge it may impact your procurement, budgeting, and perhaps even your staffing levels. For a power company, it might go as far as challenging their long-term viability, at least under existing paradigms. So, as I said at the start, there is huge value in researching well beyond our own industry across disciplines.

Diane Edwards Diane is an experienced executive, change agent and business transformation facilitator, enabling organisations to prepare for the future of work through practical initiatives to transform the business to be agile, resilient and innovative.