Zelensky's Gamble

By Konnor Wan | Layout:Aidan Kwong and Michele Liu

It is 8:00 am. A resident opens their curtains and is greeted by the sound of helicopters, rockets filling the sky, a Kalashnikov going off. They look around, panicked, searching for a shred of normalcy, when a man yells an explanation through the hubbub: the Russians are here!

This is not a work of fiction. This was the reality of the 24th of February, 2022, in Kiev, Ukraine.

The Russian offensive shocked the world by launching the largest land war Europe has ever seen since the last dictator decided to flex his might and “reclaim” territory for glory. While the illegal invasion of Ukraine was unprecedent ed, what most surprised Western analysts was the ferocity of the Ukrainian defenders. While they may have been under-equipped and un der-trained, they stood for freedom and liberty, and fought ferociously and staging ambushes, with everyone from grandmas concocting Molotov cock tails to young men taking their grandparents’ old hunt ing rifle and setting out to fight the Russians.

Russia was once known as one of the most dominant military powers, second only to the United States of America. However, it turned out that corruption has turned the once-almighty bear into a shadow––a sliver of a shadow, if that––of what the great power once was. The Russians opened with a grinding assault in the east of Ukraine, where war had been raging since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea following a popular revolution. This attack gained little ground and was an obvious feint, meant to draw the attention of Ukraine; later that day, an armoured spearhead raced towards the Ukrainian capital in a three-pronged attack assisted by para- troopers, who dropped in to capture Ukrainian airfields and set up a forward operating base. This base would serve to bring in more forces and link up with the remainder of the Russian forces in the hopes of blitzing any existing defences, cutting off the Ukrainian capital, and capturing or killing the president, Vlodomyr Zelensky. After facing stiff resistance from the Ukranians, coupled with a counteroffensive, the Russians were effectively pushed back.

In the south of Ukraine, battles raged on. While the Ukranians fought hard, they were no match for the fire superiority they faced, and every attack they attempted was repulsed with significant amounts of artillery and bombings. It was said that the Ukranians used 7,000 rounds a day; Russia had been using approximately ten times that. That was before Ukraine began receiving long range Western weapons. Until then, the majority of weapons provided had been anti-tank weapons like the Javelin, or short range anti-aircraft weapons such as the Starstreak. Although these weapons helped to level the battlefield, it did not and could not tip the scales in favour of the Ukranians.

Enter the HIMARS. The HIMARS was a guided rocket launcher that could launch a rocket from up to seventy kilometres away, outranging even the most advanced Russian artillery. They were capable of shaping the battlefield and destroying the depots that house Russian artillery shells as well as bridges that kept the Russian military well-supplied. The Ukrainians directed their energy towards moving the artillery shells to the south of the country––to Kherson––where they continued to telegraph an offensive and ramp up their artillery. In the meantime, the Russians doubled down on their indiscriminate artillery barrages; it seemed like both sides were looking at a slow slugging match between the two militaries.

In mid-September, the Ukrainian counter-offensive was finally launched, but made little progress. Slightly north of the counter-offensive lay the Kharkiv oblast, a land which had seen light combat in the beginning of the war. By September there had only been some light skirmishes, with the Russians moving elite units to bolster the defence in Kherson. There, the Ukrainians found an opportunity to charge the enemy and encircle some of the best units remaining, ultimately forcing the Russians to flee in a panic, leaving behind their gear and equipment. Within just ten days, the Ukranians recaptured what the Russians had taken over months of fighting.

This is seen as a turning point for the war––perhaps, then, there is hope in Ukraine’s future. While many were sceptical of the Ukrainians at the beginning, their ferocity has caused many to admire their courage and continue to provide support. And, hopefully, worldwide support will not flag as time goes by: this war will define the geopolitics of the 21st century and the future of humanity.