HIGHERVIEWBUSINESS.COM.AU
I S S UE E I G HT. FEBRUARY 20 17
HIGHER VIEW 商道
#08
STRIKING A NEW BALANCE
As Australia-China relations enter a deeper phase, both are set to reap the benefits
重拾平衡 随着中澳关系日益深化， 两国即将收获丰厚果实
1966 全历表，精钢表壳，40 毫米
GP 芝柏表并不神秘， 只是拥有超过两个世纪的手工艺历史 以及对完美的永恒承诺。
GP 3300 机芯 全历显示
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欢迎
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AU.CEAIR.COM * When travelling Business or First Class
欢迎辞——澳大利亚中国总商会
欢迎辞——中国东方航空公司 经过60载的发展，中国东方航空公司从一家最早仅有 七架飞机的小型航空公司逐步壮大成为全球知名的航空公司 之一。2016年，东航的562架飞机共将1亿多旅客安全送到了 * When travelling Business or First Class 逾1000个国内和国际目的地。自2017年1月起，东航每周将 有三趟从悉尼到武汉的直飞航班。因此，东航目前每周共有 44个航班从悉尼、墨尔本和布里斯班直飞大部分的中国城市。 感谢每位尊贵的旅客对东航一如既往的支持！ 欢迎选择东航，我们将为您献上一段愉快之旅！
时光流转，我们即将再次并肩走进心怀希翼、瞻望美好的 新年时刻。值此新年来临之际，澳大利亚中国总商会向《商 道》的读者们致以节日的问候和新年的祝福！ 总商会作为中澳企业交流与合作的重要桥梁和纽带，不断 推动会员企业抓住两国经贸合作快速发展的契机，发展壮大 在澳业务，2016年总商会已成立十周年，总商会和会员的发 展已成为中澳互利共赢合作的一个缩影。 旧岁已展千重锦，新年更进百尺杆。2017年是充满希望、 值得期待的一年，是千帆竞发、继往开来的一年。 衷心祝愿大家新年快乐、吉祥如意、幸福安康！
Welcome from China Eastern Airlines
Welcome from the CCCA
In 60 years, China Eastern Airlines has grown from a small aviation company, with just seven vessels making up its first fleet, to one of the most recognisable airlines in the world. In 2016, we transported over 100 million passengers in 562 vessels to more than 1000 domestic and international destinations. To kick off 2017, we’re thrilled to announce that our three weekly direct flights from Sydney to Wuhan have commenced, as of January, putting China Eastern Airlines at the top of the list of airlines flying from Australia to China, with 44 weekly flights departing Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. We would like to thank each of our valued travellers for your continuous support. We hope you have a great start to your pleasant journey with us!
Now that another year has drawn to a close, we’re welcoming the Year of the Rooster! A very happy New Year to all of Higher View Business’s readers. Acting as a bridge and a link between the two countries, CCCA has played a key role in promoting the development of China-Australia economic and trade relations. CCCA encourages our members to seize the opportunities presented by fast growing bilateral economic and trade ties by expanding their businesses in Australia. 2016 is the 10th anniversary of China Chamber of Commerce in Australia, and CCCA along with its members has undergone rapid expansion, becoming a true reflection of the win-win partnership between China and Australia. We had a marvellous year in 2016 and 2017 will be even brighter and greater. We look forward to a new year full of excitement, prosperity and success. Happy Chinese New Year! Wishing you all happiness, health, good fortune and luck!
6 | HI GHER VIEW BUSINES S
商道
CONTRIBUTORS
内容概要
CONTENTS 内容概要 IN THIS ISSUE
24
COVER STORY 封面故事
REBALANCING ACT 再平衡举措
With the ambitious aim of defining a framework for policymakers and for stakeholders in business, research and the community, ‘Partnership for Change-The Australia-China Joint Economic Report’ is the first major joint study of the economic relationship between Australia and China. A collaboration between Beijing’s Centre for International Economic Exchanges and the East Asian Bureau of Economic Research at the Australian National University, the report explores the many avenues for Australia and China to harness the opportunities arising from the profound transformations in their economies. Higher View Business presents the executive summary which underlines the extent to which the Australia–China relationship will become more, not less, important to both countries as the Chinese economy continues to change and upgrade. “为改变而合作——澳中联合经济报告”是第一份与澳中两国 经济关系相关的重要联合研究，其目标是为决策者以及商业、研 究和社区领域的利益相关方界定一个统一的框架。 北京国际经济交流中心与澳大利亚国立大学东亚经济研究局合 作编写的该份报告深入探讨了澳中两国应如何把握和利用各自经 济大转型期间所显现的众多良机。 在执行摘要当中，《商道》亦强调了随着中国经济的持续演变 和升级，澳中关系将在何种程度上变得更为重要。
商道
H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 7
CONTENTS
内容概要
40
46 46 E-COMMERCE EXPLOSION 电子商务大爆炸 40 GOLDEN HANDSHAKE 财富之握
China’s e-commerce industry has 在过去的几年里，得益于微信 undergone drastic change with the （WeChat）(月活跃用户数量 emergence of digital disruptors like 已超过7亿的一款APP) 等数字 WeChat, an app estimated to have 颠覆者的问世，中国的电子商 more than 700 million monthly active 务产业经历了翻天覆地的巨 users. Trade expert Lisa Goodhand 变。贸易专家Lisa Goodhand examines the way business can benefit 对未来企业可以从中受益的途 in the future. 径进行了深入探讨。
Alibaba founder Jack Ma says the e-commerce giant’s milestone agreement with Austrade will provide dedicated services showcasing Australian products in China. 阿里巴巴创始人马云：电子商务巨头阿里巴巴与澳大利亚贸易投资委员会 （Austrade）签署的历史性协议有助于将澳大利亚产品推介给中国消费者。
REGULARS 固定栏目
OPINION 洞见
FEATURES 专题报道
10 CONTRIBUTORS 投稿人
54 HIGH PRECISION 高精度 A few years ago, the Chinese robotics market was dominated by foreign industry leaders. Today, China is the largest robotics market and is likely to become the leader in robotics production.
36 2017: BLACK OR WHITE SWAN?
13 NEWS 新闻 89 HIGHER LIFE 气派生活
数年之前，中国的机器人市场还是外国 产业巨头的天下；今天，中国已成为全 球最大的机器人市场，并极其有望成为 机器人制造大国。
2017年：黑天鹅还是白天鹅？ The dramatic political and economic events that marked 2016 are set to leave their mark with higher volatility expected well into the new year, according to KVB Kunlun. 昆仑国际：2016年发生的一系列突出政 治和经济事件注定2017年亦将是变幻莫 测的一年。
58 CROSS-BORDER BUSINESS
98 96
94
跨境商务 The Commonwealth Bank has recently released “The Renminbi”, a practical introduction to cross-border trade and investment with China. Higher View Business explores how the rise of the RMB will be a game-changer. 澳大利亚联邦银行近期发布了一篇题 为“人民币”的中国跨境贸易与投资指 南。《商道》为你揭示人民币的崛起将 如何改变游戏规则。
68 NOUVEAU RICHE 中国的新富阶层 China’s rich make up one of the world’s newest, largest and fastest-growing concentrations of wealth in recent history. So who are they, what is their impact, and what are their investment intentions? 中国富豪是全球近代史上最新出现、数 量最多以及财富增长最快的群体之一。 那么，他们是谁？他们有着怎样的影响 力？又怀着怎样的投资喜好？
74 TALE OF TWO COUNTRIES… AND WINE 两个国家与葡萄酒的故事 Australian wine companies that have found success in China have done so through their own combination of observing and understanding Chinese culture. We hear the stories of some of these entrepreneurial exporters. 在中国，一些澳大利亚葡萄酒公司通过观 察和了解中国文化获得了巨大成功。让我 们一同来聆听这些出口商的成功故事吧。
82 UNDERSTANDING AUSTRALIAN UNIT TRUSTS
90
澳大利亚的单位信托 If you’re thinking of investing in Australian property, it’s important to gain a thorough understanding of unit trusts, which are the dominant investment vehicle. 如果您正考虑投资澳大利亚不动产，当 务之急是全面了解作为主要投资载体的 单位信托。
8 | HI GHER VIEW BUSINE S S
商道
CONTRIBUTORS
第八期 Issue 08 致力推动中澳友好关 系的重要人物，也跟 我们一起创建这一期 的《商道》。
Meet the minds helping to shape China-Australia relations – and who also helped shape this issue of Higher View Business
投稿人
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1.
3.
1. DAVID CHIN 甄竟安 David Chin is founder and Managing Director of Basis Point, a Sydney consultancy specialising in AustraliaChina investments and offering market insights, business connections and investment platforms for the Aus-China, Aus-Asia and East-West institutional, wholesale and high-net-worth investment community. Clients and sponsors of his business initiatives and major conferences include global financial exchanges, government entities and major institutions, fund managers and professional services firms from corporate Australia. 甄竟安是Basis Point（一家位于悉尼并 专注于悉尼-中国投资的咨询公司）的创 始人和董事总经理；该公司亦向澳大利 亚-中国、澳大利亚-亚洲以及东方-西方的 机构、批发和高净值投资圈提供市场意 见、商业联系以及投资平台等服务。其所 组织的各种商业倡议和重大会议的客户和 发起方包括全球各大金融交易所、政府部 门和主要机构、基金管理公司以及专业服 务公司。
If you’d like to contribute an article to Higher View Business, please get in touch with us via: jim@citrusmedia.com.au
《商道》欢迎投稿， 感兴趣者请发邮件至 jim@citrusmedia.com.au
与我们联系。
10 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
4.
经济学荣誉退休教授彼得·德赖斯代
全球市场部的客户提供量身定制的风险管
尔是澳大利亚国立大学克劳福德公共政策
理解决方案。金融投资者研究系其关键业
学院东亚经济研究局和东亚论坛的负责
务之一；团队成员与机构客户开展紧密合
人。他是亚太经贸合作组织的公认首席信
作，以设计出契合投资者具体目标的有效
息架构师，同时亦发表了一系列与东亚和
金融风险管理策略。
太平洋国际贸易和经济政策有关的书籍和 文章，包括获奖的《国际多元经济：
5. ANNA GAME-LOPATA
东亚和太平洋地区的经济政策》。
安娜·格姆罗帕塔
他曾被授予“亚太奖”“WearyDunlop
Anna Game-Lopata is the Editor of Higher View Business. With nearly 30 years of experience, her career spans talk radio, ABC TV, editing trade magazines and digital content writing. Anna cut her publishing teeth in logistics and supply chain management, becoming a well-respected advocate in the Australian space. Along with invitations to MC and cover industry conferences, her articles were published in a book, Dynamic Supply Chain Alignment, by global thought leader Dr John Gattorna. Her professional writing credentials also cover finance, agriculture, property, insurance and anything else she puts her mind to.
奖”、“日本旭日章”、“澳大利亚百年 奖章”以及“澳大利亚功勋人士奖”。
3. LISA GOODHAND 丽莎·高德翰 Lisa Goodhand is an Australian consultant with expertise in trade with China. A regular contributor to the media, she has studied, lived and worked in China and speaks fluent Mandarin. Her company – China Blueprint – specialises in import, export and marketing to China. With a strategy of looking beyond standard Australian business practices, it is active across a number of industries – including light and heavy industry, service markets and trade exhibitions.
安娜·格姆罗帕塔是《商道》杂志的
丽莎·高德翰是一位专注于对华贸易
编辑。拥有近30年丰富经验的Anna曾经
2. PETER DRYSDALE
的澳大利亚咨询专家。作为媒体的定期供
从事过电台节目主持、澳大利亚广播公司
彼得·德赖斯代尔
稿人，她曾在中国学习、生活和工作过，
电视主持、贸易杂志编辑以及数字内容作
Peter Drysdale is Emeritus Professor of Economics and the Head of the East Asian Bureau of Economic Research and East Asia Forum at the Crawford School of Public Policy at the Australian National University. He is widely recognised as the leading intellectual architect of APEC. He is the author of a number of books and papers on international trade and economic policy in East Asia and the Pacific, including his prize-winning book, International Economic Pluralism: Economic Policy in East Asia and the Pacific. He is recipient of the Asia Pacific Prize, the Weary Dunlop Award, the Japanese Order of the Rising Sun with Gold Rays and Neck Ribbon, the Australian Centenary Medal and he is a member of the Order of Australia.
并会讲流利的中文。她所创办的China
者等工作岗位，之后尝试进军物流和供应
Blueprint公司专注于对华进出口和行销领
链管理出版界，成为一位倍受尊重的澳大
域，并奉行超越澳大利亚标准商业实践的
利亚倡导者。除了应邀请参加MC以及报
经营之道。该公司活跃于不同的行业部
道各种行业会议之外，她的文章被全球思
门，包括轻工业、重工业、劳务市场以及
想领袖John Gattorna博士整理出书，取
贸易展览等等。
名为《动态供应链联盟》。她的专业文章 亦涵盖了金融、农业、地产、保险以及她
4. MONO GANGULI 莫诺·甘谷里 Mono Ganguli leads a global team of structuring professionals specialising in bespoke risk management solutions for CBA’s global markets clients. Financial sponsor coverage is a key part of this business; the team works closely with institutional clients to design effective financial risk management strategies that are aligned to investor objectives. 莫诺·甘谷里领导着一支全球业务方 式设计团队，专注于为澳大利亚联邦银行
商道
所专注的其它各种领域。
6. WILL MCCOSKER 威尔·麦克斯克 Will McCosker is a partner in King & Wood Mallesons’ funds team, currently based in Shanghai. He has more than 13 years of experience in financial services law and corporate law. He specialises in investment funds, structured investment products and financial services regulation, focusing on international investment structures including private
CONTRIBUTORS
投稿人
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5.
7.
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Higher View Business 商道 Issue 08 Strategic Advisor 战略顾问
Jingmin Qian
Editor 编辑
Anna Game-Lopata
Staff Writers 特约撰稿人
Crystal Wong, Constantina Pilatos
富经验，擅长投资基金、结构化投资产品
on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Stephen has 23+ years’ experience in the banking and investment industry. He writes columns for a number of Chinese magazines and newspapers in Australia and China. He has been a regular speaker on “Phoenix Satellite TV Financial Channel” and official press agency of China “Xinhua News Agency” in Australia.
以及金融服务法规，并专注于各种国际投
蘇志恒是昆仑国际澳大利亚分公司的
资结构，包括私人股权基金、对冲基金、
投资总监和负责经理，同时亦是在香港证
基础设施基金以及合资投资。Will亦针对
交所上市的昆仑国际金融集团的高
一系列跨辖区、封闭式、开放式以及混合
管。Stephen已在银行和投资行业积累了
式基金结构的成立和运作提供相关建议。
逾23年的丰富经验，同时亦是一系列澳
equity funds, hedge funds, infrastructure funds and joint venture investments. Will has also advised on the establishment and operation of a number of multi-jurisdiction, closed-ended, open-ended and hybrid fund structures. 威尔·麦克斯克是位于上海的金杜律 师事务所基金团队的合伙人。他在金融服 务法和企业法领域已经积累了逾13年的丰
大利亚和中国境内中文杂志和报纸的专栏
7. JEREMY OLIVER 杰里米·奥利弗 Jeremy Oliver is one of Australia’s foremost wine authorities and author of nearly 30 books. He is the first western wine author to write and publish books on wine for the Chinese market in Chinese, and has led wine promotional programs in China on several occasions. A trained winemaker and fiercely independent writer and critic, he is known for his honesty and the integrity of his opinion. His best-selling The Australian Wine Annual, which will soon celebrate its 20th edition, is translated into Mandarin each year. 杰里米·奥利弗是澳大利亚最早的葡 萄酒权威之一，同时亦是近30本书的作 者。他是首位以中文创作并在中国市场上
作家。他是“凤凰卫视财经频道”以及中 国新华社驻澳大利亚分社的常邀嘉宾。
9. DR DAN STEINBOCK 斯丁巴克博士 Dr Dan Steinbock is founder of the Difference Group and has served as research director at the India, China and America Institute (USA). He is a visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). He has consulted for multinationals and SMEs, international organisations (OECD, EU, Nordic Council, Baltic Development Forum), cities (from Shanghai to Greater Helsinki) and governments. His commentaries are released in major media outlets worldwide.
他曾为多个跨国公司和中小企业、国际组织 （经合发组织、欧盟、北欧理事会、波罗的 海发展论坛）、城市（从上海到大赫尔辛 基）以及政府提供过咨询服务。全球各大知 名媒体亦曾刊登过它的言论。
10. ZHANG XIAOQIANG 张晓强 Zhang Xiaoqiangis currently the Vice-Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE). He was born in 1952. Began to work for the Communist Party of China in 1969, and graduated from the Economics Department of Peking University in 1982. From 2003 to 2014 he was Vice-Minister and Member of Leading Party Member’ Group, of the National Development and Reform Commission. He has also served as an economic counsellor to the Chinese Embassy in the United States From 1995 to 2000 he was the Director of the Foreign Capital and Overseas Investment Department of the State Planning Commission, which was reconstituted as the State Development and Planning Commission in 1998. 张晓强目前是中国国际经济交流中心 的副理事长。出生于1952年的张晓强从 1969年起开始为中国共产党工作，并于 1982年从北京大学经济系业。2003-2014 副主任，并是领导党组成员；他还担任过 中国驻美国大使馆的经济参赞。1995-
斯丁巴克博士是DifferenceGroup的创始
2000年期间，他进入国家计划委员会利
主导了多项葡萄酒推广活动。他既是一位
人，并是印度、中国和美国研究所（美国）
用外资和境外投资司，出任司长一
受过正规培训的酿酒技师，同时亦是一位
的研究主任以及上海国际问题研究院（中
职。1998年，国家计划委员会重组成为
独立的作家和评论家，并以发表诚实、公
国）和欧盟中心（新加坡）的客座研究员。
国家发展与改革委员会。
正的看法而知名。他的畅销书《澳大利亚 每年都会被翻译成中文出版。
Millie Jia, Stephanie Goh
Illustrations 插图
Gregory Baldwin @ The Illustration Room
Sub Editor 副编辑 Greg Barton
Advertising 广告
Max La-Brooy +61 2 8188 3664 max@citrusmedia.com.au Crystal Wong +61 2 8188 3662 crystal@citrusmedia.com.au
Production Manager 生产经理 Ian Scott
Financial Controller 财务总监 Stuart Harle
Publisher 出版者
Jim Flynn +61 2 8188 3671 jim@citrusmedia.com.au Translation by Jack Chen (陈晓杰). Printed by Megacolour. Distributed by Gordon & Gotch. Higher View Business is produced for business class passengers on China Eastern Airlines flights between Australia and China. It can also be found in select newsagents, premium hotels and is distributed directly to key people involved in contributing to the China-Australia relationship. Citrus Media wishes to acknowledge the valuable contribution of the Australia China Business Council and its staff and members in making this issue of Higher View Business. We invite contributions from experts in their respective fields – please get in touch with the Editor-in-Chief to discuss.
年期间，他出任国家发展与改革委员会的
出版葡萄酒类书籍的西方作家，并在中国
葡萄酒年鉴》即将迎来第20周年纪念，
Design 设计
9.
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© 2017 Citrus Media. All rights reserved. No article or images may be reproduced wholly or in part without prior written permission from the publisher. While every care was taken during the preparation of this magazine, Citrus Media cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information or any consequence arising from it. All views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views of the writer/photographer/illustrator and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of China Eastern Airlines or CCCA. Higher View Business is an independent publication and is in no way endorsed by China Eastern Airlines.
8. STEPHEN SO 蘇志恒 Stephen So is KVB Kunlun Director and Head of Investment, Australia. He is also the Responsible Manager of the company and senior management of the KVB Financial Group, which is listed
商道
H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 11
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F +61 2 8027 8099
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视点
VIEWPOINT 视点
VIEWPOINT
NEWS, INSIGHTS, GLOBAL THINKING
INSIGHT 洞察
BMY GROUP SEEKS INVESTORS FOR $50M FUND TO BACK AUSSIE TECH START-UPS BMY 集团拟向亚洲投资者募集5000万美元的基金 投资于澳大利亚的初创科技公司
总
By Yolanda Redrup 作者：约兰达· 瑞德普
Melbourne-based corporate advisory and wealth management firm BMY Group, which targets Asian investors and companies, is raising $50m for its first venture capital fund that will focus on Australian start-ups whose sights are set on Chinese expansion. Despite only just launching the fund, the firm has already raised almost $10 million and expects to have closed the first $15 million tranche by January. It plans to have the additional $35 million by mid-2017, when it will also have identified a range of investment opportunities. BMY Group co-founder Eric Gao told The Australian Financial Review there was an untapped desire from Chinese investors to not just buy into real estate in Australia, but also invest in local start-ups. “There are so many fund managers who are talking to Asian investors and promoting property and hotels. They’re familiar with that, but it’s not the one investment they want to make. Australia offers a lot more than that,” he said. The $50m fund will target pre-IPO start-ups that have Asian expansion plans, already have some revenue and an established business model, and come from industries such as cleantech, biotech and aged care technology. “China is really strong with consumer technologies, online gaming and VR, robotics and even blockchain,” Mr Gao said. “But what China is missing is the core technology that can facilitate other technologies in business services and improvements to existing technology.”
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部位于墨尔本的企业咨询和理财公司BMY 集团主要服务于亚洲投资者和企业；其当 前正在募集5000万美元打造该集团的首支风险 资本基金。这支基金将专注于投资那些以进军中 国市场为目标的澳大利亚初创企业。 该基金一经推出即募得了大约1000万美元， 并有望在一月份之前完成首轮1500万美元的融 资。该公司计划在2017年年中之前募到剩余的 3500万美元，届时其亦可能已经圈定了一系列 的投资机遇。 BMY集团的联合创始人Eric Gao向《澳大利亚 金融评论报》记者表示：中国投资者不仅仅热衷 于澳大利亚的不动产，同时亦有意投资于当地的 初创企业。他表示：“有很多的基金经理在向亚 洲投资者推介各种不动产和酒店项目，但他们深 知这些并非亚洲投资所钟情的唯一投资对象。澳 大利亚所能提供的投资机遇远远不止这些。” “我们已经为那些有意寻找其它投资机遇的投 资者建立了一个数据库。有一位投资者——同时 也是我的朋友——在中国拥有一家上市医药器械 公司。他快满50岁了，并有意投资于澳大利亚的 医疗器械行业，但不知从何下手。” Gao先生表示：“我们希望跻身澳大利亚现有 大型基金的行列之中。中国是民用技术、网游和 VR、机器人甚至是块环链等产业的热土，但中 国缺少可以推动其它商业服务技术以及现有技术 改进所需的核心技术。”
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BUMPY RIDE AHEAD FOR AUSTRALIAN VITAMINS FIRMS AS VITACO BUYOUT SEALED Vitaco收购案尘埃落定：澳大利亚 维生素企业将踏上一段颠簸之旅
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By Simon Evans 作者：西蒙·埃文斯
The new Chinese owners of Australian vitamins company Vitaco aim to boost sales in China of brands including Nutra-Life, Wagner and Healtheries by utilising the market clout of 1900 pharmacy outlets owned by Shanghai Pharmaceuticals, and other relationships with grocery chain operators. Vitaco became the second-largest Australian vitamins company to be acquired by the Chinese operators in 14 months when shareholders overwhelmingly approved a $314 million takeover by Shanghai Pharma, which owns 60 per cent of the bidding vehicle. Chinese private equity firm Primavera Capital owns 40 per cent. Vitaco chief executive Ryan D'Almeida said after the meeting the impact of cross-border e-commerce regulatory changes in China, which had caused a slowdown for all Australian vitamins makers including Blackmores and Swisse, was still washing through and making trading conditions "lumpy" – but the over-arching trend, where Australian vitamins were in strong demand in China, would remain intact over the longer term. Mr D'Almeida will remain as chief executive of the privatised Vitaco. "I still firmly believe in the growth opportunities in China," he said. The buyout ends a short 14-month life as an ASX-listed company for Vitaco, which had been controlled by Australian private equity firm Next Capital before a $232 million public float in September 2015. The Vitaco listing came around the same time as the higher-profile Swisse Wellness was bought out by Chinese firm Biostime International, which acquired 83 per cent of Swisse in a deal that valued that business at $1.67 billion. Shanghai Pharma has annual revenues of $22 billion and plans to sell Vitaco products through its network of 1900 pharmacy outlets. Mr D'Almeida said Primavera also had strong links. The duo has strong relationships with large grocery chains and with "mother and baby" stores. Shanghai Pharma was one of the underbidders for the Swisse Wellness vitamins business acquired by Chinese firm Biostime International in September 2015. Biostime acquired 83 per cent of Swisse at a hefty multiple which valued the entire company at $1.67 billion.
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大利亚维生素制造商Vitaco的中国新东家 计划利用上海医药公司旗下的1,900家药店 及其与其它杂货连锁店之间的合作来提高各系列 产品的在华销量，包括纽乐（Nutra-Life）、瓦 格纳（Wagner）以及贺寿利（Healtheries）。 在多数股东批准了上海医药公司（在竞标联合 体当中持有60%的股份）提出的3.14亿美元的收 购要约之后，Vitaco成为14个月内被中国企业收 购的第二家澳大利亚维生素巨头。中国私募股权 公司春华（Primavera）持有另外40%的股份。 Vitaco总裁Ryan D'Almeida在会后表示，中 国跨境电商监管制度的变化导致包括 Blackmores和Swisse在内的澳大利亚维生素制 造商出现了业务放缓的迹象，其影响至今仍在持 续，并让贸易条件变得十分“费劲”。 D'Almeida先生向《澳大利亚金融评论》记者 表示：“对于大部分人而言，一段颠簸之旅即将 展开。跨境电商渠道依旧有失稳定。” 但他表示中国市场对澳大利亚维生素产品的需 求整体上较为强劲，而这个趋势在未来很长一段 时间内都不会发生改变。 D'Almeida先生将继续出任Vitaco的总裁；他表 示：“我对中国市场的增长机遇依旧满怀信心。” 在2015年9月，此前由澳大利亚私募股权公司 Next Capital控股的Vitaco在澳大利亚证交所上 市，募得2.32亿美元，但在上市短短14个月之后 即被收购。Vitaco上市之时恰逢知名的Swisse Wellness公司被中国企业合生元国际收购，后者 购入了Swisse公司83%的股权，使该公司的估值 达到了16.7亿美元。 Vitaco专注于生产各种维生素产品，包括纽 乐（Nutra-Life）、瓦格纳（Wagner）以及贺 寿利（Healtheries）；其亦通过Aussie Bodies 和Musashi两个品牌推出各种健美和运动营养产 品。该公司在澳大利亚证交所上市之初的股票发 行价是2.10美元。
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NEWS BRIEFS 新讯妙闻
CONSTRUCTION GIANT CRCC LANDS IN AUSTRALIA 建筑业巨头中国铁建 登陆澳大利亚 China Railway Construction Corporation has taken a majority stake in Brisbane-based Rimfire Constructions and plans to focus on high-rise commercial and residential projects, as well as infrastructure projects in the resources sector in Australia and the wider Asia Pacific. The newly named CRCG-Rimfire's first two contracts are Brisbane's Omega and Lume apartment projects. 全球第三大建筑公司——中国铁建股份有限公司——已收 购了位于布里斯班的Rimfire建筑公司的大部分股权。 这家国有建筑巨鳄计划在澳大利亚以及亚太地区开发高层 商业和住宅项目，以及与能源产业相关的基础设施项目。 新成立的CRCG-Rimfire公司已拿下了两份建筑合同，即位 于布里斯班的两个公寓项目：Omega公寓和Lume公寓。
HONG KONG TOPS THE LIST FOR GLOBAL IPOS 香港荣登全球IPO市场榜首 Hong Kong will continue to rank top globally for initial public offerings in 2017, with 130 companies raising up to HK$220 billion, according to accounting firm PwC. The South China Morning Post reports the estimate is 13 per cent higher than last year’s total and would represent a turnaround, after 2016 saw funds raised from IPOs plunge 26 per cent from the previous year. Despite the drop, Hong Kong retained the number one spot for a second consecutive year.
普华永道会计师事务所表 示：2017年期间，香港仍将是全球 IPO市场的主角，130家公司预计将 在香港募集到2200亿港元。 据《南华早报》报道，2016年期 间香港的IPO融资总额较去年相比 骤跌了26%，而这个估值与2016年 相比高出13%，这无疑代表着形势 的好转。 尽管行情欠佳，但香港已经连续 两年稳坐全球IPO市场的头把交椅。
JINXING ADDS BOUTIQUE AUSTRALIAN LAGER 金星将代销澳大利亚高端啤酒品牌Lager Jinxing Beer Group has inked a distribution deal with Broo, a boutique Australian brewer, that will give the company’s Premium Lager product access to China's five billion cases-per-year beer market. Following the news, shares in Broo, which listed on the Australian share market in October 2016, jumped 16.42 per cent. 金星啤酒集团已经与一家小型澳大利亚啤酒商Broo签署了 分销协议。此协议将帮助后者的高端啤酒品牌Lager进军每年 啤酒销量达到50亿箱的中国市场。其将为Broo提供一个与中 国现有国际啤酒巨头分庭抗礼的平台。Broo的高端品牌 Lager是金星产品阵营当中唯一的一个国际品牌。Broo已于 2016年10月在澳大利亚股票市场上市；此番协议的达成令其 股票跳涨了16.42%。 16 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
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CHINA LOOKS TO AUSTRALIAN SOLAR TECHNOLOGY 中国引进澳大利亚太阳能技术 The CSIRO has reached an agreement with Beijing's Thermal Focus that will see its technology utilised to help China reach its renewable energy goals. The CSIRO-developed solar heliostat technology comprises a special mirror that concentrates sunlight onto a central receiver situated on top of a tower to heat and store hot molten salt, which is used to generate steam to drive a turbine for electricity generation. 澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织（CSIRO）已与位于 北京的旭孚（Thermal Focus）公司达成了一项协议，以 利用其技术来帮助中国公司实现其可再生能源发展目标。 澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织所开发的太阳能定日 镜技术利用一面特殊的镜子（通常由电脑进行控制）将日 光反射并集中到位于一座高塔顶上的接收器。 集于一点之后的太阳能可以用于加热并保存热熔盐，并 产生水蒸汽来驱动发电涡轮机。
LI KEQIANG CALLS FOR INTERNATIONAL ORDER 李克强呼吁维持全球秩序 Chinese Premier Li Keqiang says the international community should stick to the direction of economic globalisation and maintain the post-war international order, Xinhua news agency reports. Li was speaking at a recent meeting with UN secretarygeneral designate Antonio Guterres, who visited China late last year. He pointed out the world political and economic landscape is undergoing profound changes with mounting uncertainties for economic recovery amid a rising mood of anti-globalisation, isolationism and populism. Li says China will continue to support the work of the UN, preserve its international authority, and back the UN to enhance its capacity to cope with global challenges. 据新华社报道：中国总理李克强表示国际社会应当坚持 走经济全球化的道路，并维持好二战之后的国际秩序。 去年年底联合国秘书长候选人安东尼奥·古特雷斯访 华之时，李克强与之进行了会晤，并发表了上述讲话。 李克强指出：当今世界政治经济格局正在经历复杂深 刻的调整；在反全球化、孤立主义和民粹主义盛行之 际，经济复苏的不确定性越来越大。 李克强指出中国将一如既往地支持联合国的工作，维 护联合国的国际权威，并支持联合国加强其应对各种全 球挑战的能力。
ALDI TO DEBUT IN THE CHINESE MARKET ALDI即将登陆中国市场 Discount German retailer ALDI is set to launch an e-commerce platform selling to hundreds of millions of online shoppers in China, featuring items from its everyday non-chilled grocery range, along with its wine selection. Products will be delivered to consumers’ homes, and ALDI plans to source the majority of items from its Australian suppliers by leveraging the country’s “clean and green” reputation. Currently ALDI accounts for about 10 per cent of Australia’s $90bn grocery sales, and the move into China follows several years of research and strategy development. While no date has been given for store openings, the online platform will launch in the second quarter of 2017. 商道
德国平价零售商ALDI即将在中国推出 一个销售各种食品杂货的电商平台，以 进军这个拥有数亿消费者的在线市场。 该零售商的绝大部分商品将向澳 大利亚供应商采购，以充分利用澳 大利亚“清洁、绿色”美誉。 目前，在澳大利亚900亿美元的食 品杂货销售额中，ALDI贡献了10%。 ALDI是在长达数年的研究和战略 制订之后方才决定进军中国市场。 2017年第二季度，中国消费者将能 通过这个在线零售平台买到ALDL为 中国消费者精心准备的各种日常食品 杂货。线下门店何时开业仍未可知。 国际投资者对于通过该款APP获 利的说法甚为怀疑。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 17
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OPEN SKIES AGREEMENT SIGNED BETWEEN AUSTRALIA AND CHINA
Chinese airlines will have unrestricted capacity into Australia following an agreement reached between Australia’s federal government and China for an “open aviation market” between the two countries. Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Darren Chester says opening up aviation capacity in the Australia-China air services agreement had been a top priority since he took up the portfolio. “These new arrangements will remove all capacity restrictions between Australia and China for each country’s airline, which is an important enabler for increased trade and tourism,” Chester says.
澳中两国签署开放天空协议
在澳大利亚联邦政府与中国政府签署了一项关于“开放 航空市场”的协议之后，中国各大航空公司将可以不受限 制地增加飞往澳大利亚的航班数量。 在近年来越来越多中国游客选择出境旅游的背景之下， 于去年12月份公布的该份协议为中国航空公司向澳大利亚 的急剧扩张策略铺平了道路。 基础设施和交通部部长Darren Chester表示：开放澳中 航空服务协议当中的航空运力是其上任以来的第一要务。 Chester表示：“这些新的协议将会解除两国航空公司 所面临的所有运力限制，使之成为贸易和旅游业增长的重 要推动因素。”
CHINA’S BOX OFFICE GROWTH SLUMPS 中国票房增速放缓 China’s rise as one of the world’s top film markets has ground to a virtual halt, the South China Morning Post reports. With big budget films like The Great Wall failing to draw audiences in 2016, box office takings edged up just 3.73 per cent to 45.7 billion yuan, compared with an astonishing 48 per cent expansion in 2015. The poor growth, marking the slowest rate in the last decade, will have surprised many analysts and industry observers who had predicted that China would overtake North America as the world’s largest big-screen market in 2016, with ticket sales tipped to top 60 billion yuan. The report says in part that a “poor crop of films” and “steep discounts offered by burgeoning mobile-ticketing platforms” were to blame for the decline. 据《南华早报》的报道，中国崛起成为全球首屈一指 电影市场之一的如虹之势已经嘎然而止。 2016年期间，诸如《长城》这样的大制作都未能吸引 观众走进电影院，全年电影总票房达到457亿元人民 币，较去年相比仅仅增长了3.73%，而在2015年期间， 中国电影票房曾一度实现了48%的惊人增长。 作为过去十年期间最慢的票房增速，此种颓势让不少 曾经断言中国必将在2016年以逾600亿元人民币总票房 超越北美、成为全球最大电影市场的分析师和行业观察 家们目瞪口呆。 该报道亦指出中国电影市场出现衰退的一部分原因要 缘于“电影票房不佳”以及“各种急剧增长的手机订票 平台所提供的巨大折扣”。 18 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
CHINA OPENS SALT TRADE 中国开放盐业贸易 A plan by China’s governing State Council will allow private salt companies to enter the market after 2000 years of regulation. Under the reform, existing producers can sell directly to the market across regions. Prices will be set by producers in accordance with their costs, product quality and market supply and demand, although government planners will still retain supervision to prevent abnormal pricing fluctuations. The changes come amid recent pledges by Beijing to open China’s economy up to more private and foreign competition. 商道
在长达2000年的管制之后， 中国国务院首次有意允许私人 盐业公司涉足这一市场。 根据改革计划，现有产盐企 业可以跨地区直接销售食盐。 企业可根据成本、产品质量以 及市场供需情况来制定价格， 但政府仍将保留对这一行业的 监管，以避免出现异常价格 波动。 中央政府近年来承诺向私人和 外国资本开放市场，这项改革也 由此应运而生。
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NZ FORGES EDUCATION PARTNERSHIPS WITH CHINA 新西兰与中国达成教育合作
UNUSUAL EXPORTS TO PROSPER WITH FREE TRADE 自由贸易协定让非常规商品出口风生水起 Human hair, Arabian robes and rocket launchers are among some of the more unusual items that became cheaper to export to China from Australia from January 2017. Under the Chinese-Australia Free Trade Agreement, export tariffs to China for many Australian products have been decreased. Along with produce such as wine, live animals and frozen meat, human hair, animal hair, Arabian robes and fake flowers have become significantly cheaper to send to the world’s most populous country. Rocket launchers, flamethrowers, grenade launchers, torpedo tubes and similar projectors will be taxed 5.2 per cent instead of 7.8 per cent.
从2017年1月起，澳大利亚向中 国 出 口 的 许 多 非 常 见 商品将会变更得更便宜，包括人的 头发、阿拉伯长袍以及火箭发射 装置。 根据《中澳自由贸易协定》，许 多对华出口的澳大利亚商品将能享 受更低的出口关税优惠。 除了葡萄酒、活畜和冻肉之外， 人发、兽毛、阿拉伯长袍以及假花 等商品亦能以更低的价格出口到中 国这个人口众多的国家。 火箭发射装置、火焰喷射器、 枪榴弹发射器、鱼雷发射管以及类 似投射器的出口税率将从7.8%下调 至5.2%。
INSURANCE INDUSTRY PROMISING DESPITE ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN
New Zealand and China are stepping up collaboration between top-ranking universities in their countries. Delegations from China’s prestigious Tsinghua University and its western Qinghai University recently met with University of Auckland executives for talks on their “Three Brothers” partnership. The delegations plan to develop new collaborative projects in science and engineering. University of Auckland Faculty of Engineering Professor Wei Gao says Tsinghua University is the number one science and engineering university in China. He says the partnership with Tsinghua University is also about supporting the on-going development and success of Qinghai University and is an excellent example of international collaboration. 新西兰与中国正在加快推进两国顶级学府之间的合 作。来自中国清华大学以及青海大学的代表团近期与奥 克兰大学的高管人员进行了一次会晤，并就“三兄弟” 伙伴关系进行了讨论。 代表团计划启动理工学科领域的全新合作项目。来自 奥克兰大学工程学院的Wei Gao教授表示：清华大学是 中国首屈一指的理工类大学，而与清华大学合作亦旨在 帮助清华大学继续保持发展并迈向成功，同时也是国际 合作中的一个优秀典范。 副校长Stuart McCutcheon教授补充道：此次合作 未来将为中国和新西兰带来更多的潜在裨益。 Source: Xinhua 来源：新华网
经济衰退下的保险业前景看好 Profits at China’s non-life insurers are unlikely to see double-digit growth in 2017 unless there is an acceleration in new car sales that boosts motor insurance premiums, The South China Morning Post reports. Ratings agency Fitch predicts the country’s economic slowdown will weaken near-term demand for insurance policies. However, Fitch says the long-term growth prospects for the sector look promising, given regulatory changes aimed at improving insurance penetration rates, and insurers’ efforts to expand their product reach nationwide.
根据《南华早报》的报道， 除非新车销量实现增长并带动 车险保费的增长，否则中国的 非人寿保险公司不太可能在 2017年实现两位数的增长。 评级机构惠誉预计中国的经济 放缓将在短期内削弱民众的保险 需求。 但是，在旨在提高保险普及率 之制度改革的带动下，以及在保 险公司将产品推广到全国的努力 下，惠誉十分看好保险业的长期 发展前景。 商道
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CHINESE ENTREPRENEUR FUNDS GREEN 'BATMOBILE' 中国企业投资开发蝙蝠车
NEW MOBILE APP DEVELOPED FOR DIABETES PATIENTS 全新移动APP惠及糖尿病患者 Researchers in the Australian state of Queensland are trialling a new mobile app that helps people with diabetes monitor their blood sugar levels. It also enables health professionals to manage their patients remotely. University of Queensland research fellow Dr Farhad Fatehi says the app is currently undergoing a clinical trial at the diabetes clinic in Princess Alexandra Hospital in Queensland. "Blood glucose readings are sent directly via bluetooth technology from the glucose meter to a smartphone and then immediately to secure servers on the internet where doctors and nurses can access the readings," Fatehi says. "This is a faster and more accurate way of relaying the information than patients having to write out their results and then read or send these on to health professionals for assessment." The app was developed in collaboration with the CSIRO, Australian eHealth Research Centre and Queensland Health. 澳大利亚昆士兰州的研究人员正在测试一款旨在帮助 糖尿病患者监测自身血糖水平的移动APP。 医师们亦能通过该款APP来远程管理他们的患者。 昆士兰大学研究员Farhad Fatehi博士表示：该款 APP目前正在昆士兰亚历山德拉公主医院的糖尿病门诊 部接受临床测试。 Fatehi表示：“血糖仪读取到的血糖值将通过蓝牙技 术直接发送到智能手机上，然后立即上传到可靠的在线 服务器上，这样医生和护士将可以看到这些血糖值。” “与患者需要将血糖读值写出并讲述给或者寄给医师 进行评估的传统方式相比，该款APP可以更快、更准确 地传达血糖信息。” 该APP系由澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织、澳大 利亚电子医疗研究中心与昆士兰卫生部共同开发。 20 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
Beijing-based Le Holdings (LeEco) has raised $US1.08bn to develop an electric sports car dubbed the "Batmobile", with initial funding coming from Chinese investors including Legend Holdings, Yingda Capital Management and China Minsheng Trust. The government is set to impose tighter tech standards and is considering limiting the number of green car manufacturers to ten. WM Motor, founded by former Zhejiang Geely Holding Group exec Freeman Shen, claims it has raised $US1bn to challenge Tesla. Another Chinese startup NextEV, which has ambitions to unseat Tesla and develop affordable, connected green cars, raised funds in 2015 from investors including Sequoia Capital and Joy Capital.
位于北京的中国乐视控股集团 （又名“乐视生态”）在中国投资人 中首轮融资10.8亿美元用于开发一 款名为蝙蝠车（Batmobile）的电 动跑车。 中国投资人包括联想控股、英大 资本管理有限公司以及中国民生 信托。 由前浙江吉利控股集团总载沈晖 创立的威马汽车（WM Motor）已 募集到10亿美元，目标直指特斯 拉。 另一家立志撼动特斯拉地位的 中国初创汽车公司蔚来汽车 （NextEV）已于2015年从包括红杉 资本和愉悦资本在内的投资者手中 募集到启动资金；其目标是推出经 济型的互联环保汽车。
FACEBOOK TAKES ON CHINA BAN Facebook破解中国封锁 Media reports say Facebook has developed software aiming to circumvent its status in China, where it has been blocked since 2009. The reports claim the software suppresses posts from appearing in people's news feeds in specific geographic areas. Anonymous Facebook sources say a third-party Chinese partner could use it to moderate popular stories and control what will show up in users' feeds. Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg reportedly supports the development of the software but is also aiming to cultivate relationships with China's leaders, including President Xi Jinping. He has paid multiple visits to meet top Chinese internet executives and has made an effort to learn Mandarin. 商道
据媒体报道，Facebook已开 发出一款软件来绕道进入自2009 年起就对其实施封锁的中国。 来自Facebook的一位匿名人 士解释称：一家第三方中国合作 伙伴可使用该软件来审查一些 流行的新闻或话题，并控制哪 些内容可以出现在用户的信息 流上。 Facebook总载马克·扎克伯 格据称大力支持该款软件的开发， 但其亦致力于搞好与中国领导人 的关系，包括习近平主席。 他已多次前往中国拜访中国互 联网行业的高管，并在努力学习 普通话。
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SONGCHENG PLANS $400M GOLD COAST THEME PARK 宋城计划投资4亿美元 在黄金海岸建造主题公园
TASMANIA PROMISES SIGNS IN MANDARIN 塔斯马尼亚州承诺将设立各种中文标识 Australia's island state of Tasmania, a popular destination for Chinese visitors, is planning signs in Mandarin to make life easier for tourists. The push is being led by communities along the east coast, home to popular attractions such as the Bay of Fires and Freycinet National Park. Break O'Day Council mayor Mick Tucker says Tasmania's northeast receives visitors from China year-round, and that its population of 6500 more than doubles during summer – so the cost of erecting signs would be offset by the benefits the investment would bring. Tucker told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) it’s “a nice gesture” to offer people something they can read in their own language when they come “from the other side of the world”.
澳大利亚唯一的岛州塔斯马尼 亚州正在计划安装各种中文标识 以便为中国游客提供便利。 塔斯马尼亚州东海岸的各个 社区正在极力推动关于设置中文 标识的倡议；火焰湾和菲辛 那国家公园等知名景点正位于 此地。 布雷克奥戴议会市长Mick Tucker表示：本州人口约6500人 的东北地区一年到头都有中国游 客前来观光。 Tucker向澳大利亚广播公司 （ABC）表示：让“来自全球其 它地方”的客人看到各种以对方 语言呈现的事物“是一项友好的 举动”。
Chinese theme park operator Songcheng has unveiled plans to build a $400 million theme park on the Gold Coast. It is the company’s first move to overseas markets, as major Chinese companies tap into increasing demand for tourism offerings from both local and international travellers. The Shenzhen-listed company has won board approval for its local arm to build the “The Australia Legendary Kingdom” project at Nerang on the Gold Coast. The theme park will feature an “Australian Legend” grand performance and different precincts including “Australian Aboriginal Cultural Village”, “Wild Australia” and “Mysterious Orient”. It will also offer a mixture of Australian culture and oriental culture, which will meet diversified tourist demand from different age groups. 中国主题公园运营商宋城已计划斥资4亿美元在黄海 海岸建造一座主题公园。 这家在深圳上市的公司已获得了董事会的批准，由其 位于澳大利亚的分公司在黄金海岸的Nerang开发“澳 大利亚传奇王国”项目。 该主题公园将为游客献上主题为“澳大利亚传奇”的 豪华演出，并设置不同的主题区，包括“澳大利亚土著 文化村”、“狂野澳大利亚”以及“神秘东方”。 该主题公园将集澳大利亚文化和东方文化于一身，以 满足不同年龄段游客的多元化需求。
CHINESE ARTWORK FETCHES $6M 中国艺术品创下6亿成交记录 Zao Wou-Ki’s Paysage dans la Lune, a stunning 1954 abstract painting evoking a moonlit landscape, sold for HK$46.7m (US$6m) at a Sotheby’s auction last year. Now the undisputed top lot of the sale, 30 years ago a painting by Zao might make just $US 1500 at auction. Born in 1921, Zao left China in 1948 for Paris, where he became part of the post-war School of Paris movement, influenced by Paul Klee. His fortunes ebbed and flowed, but when the newly ebullient Asian market discovered him in the 21st century, his prices took off. By the time he died in 2013, his record price had reached $US14.7m. 商道
去年，赵无极于1954年创作的 《月光漫步》抽象画在苏富比拍出 了4670万港币（约合600万美元） 的高价。今天风头一时无两的赵无 极画作，在30年前只能拍出1500美 元的价格。 出生于1921年的赵无极于1948年 离开中国前往巴黎，并在保罗·克 利的影响下加入了战后巴黎画派。 他的运气时好时坏；当他于21世纪 被新崛起的亚洲市场发现之后，他 的画作价格开始了一路飙升。在 2013年辞世之时，他作品的最高拍 出价格已达到了1470万美元。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 21
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INSIGHT 洞察
RELATIONSHIPS ARE KEY 非同小可的关系
By David Thomas, Chief Executive Think Global Consulting 作者： Think Global咨询公司总裁大卫·托马斯
一 There is a story about a traveller who found that, in order to be welcomed into an Eastern family, he would be asked to take three cups of tea. The first cup was taken as a stranger, the second cup as a friend and, if he was offered a third cup, he would then become part of their family – a place where trust was given freely and unconditionally, and from which he would forever be looked after. I often use the “three cups of tea” metaphor to describe the journey that foreigners have to take to be truly accepted in China. Unfortunately, many Westerners who are used to relying on legal contracts to do business with strangers (or even friends) often don’t have the time, patience and emotional intelligence to invest in building the deep, trusted and binding relationships that are necessary to succeed in China. It must be remembered that, only 30 years ago, China didn’t have a legal system (the oldest law firm in China, King & Wood, is only 23 years old!) and I often ask my clients to imagine a business environment where you are unable to rely on the rule of law and the courts to resolve disputes between different parties. China managed for hundreds of years largely because of the focus on trusted relationships and networks (often referred to in Chinese as “guanxi”) that allowed old friends, families, villages and tribes to do business together knowing that maintaining relationships, “face” and trust was more important and valuable than doing a deal.
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商道
个故事讲到，一位旅行者发现需要饮尽 三杯茶方能获得一个东方家庭的接 纳——敬上第一杯茶，你是一个陌生人；再奉 第二杯，你是我们的朋友；再上第三杯茶，你 就是我的家人，我将无条件地信任你，并会始 终如一地照应你。 我常常使用“三杯茶”的隐喻来描述外国人 在中国得到真正接纳所需经历的一个过程。遗 憾的是，许多习惯依赖合同与陌生人（甚至是 朋友）做生意的西方人通常没有足够的时间、 耐心和情商来建立他们在中国大获成功的道路 上所不可或缺的各种深厚而互信的人际关系。 需要谨记的是，30多年前中国的法律体系还 未建成（中国最早的律所金杜律师事务所也仅 有23年的历史）；我常常要求我的客户想象一 下一个无法依赖法治和法院来解决各种纠纷的 营商环境。中国的商贾们做了数百年的买卖， 这在很大程度上要得益于他们所建立的各种 互信关系和人脉（也就是中国人常说的“关 系”），令老友、亲属、村庄和部落之间能够 互通有无做好生意，因为他们深知维持好关 系、“面子”和互信要比做成买卖更为重要。 作为一个在中国做生意的外国人，无论对方 看上去如何喜欢您、信任您和尊重您，您都属 于彻头彻尾的陌生人。中国人在待客之时都十
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As a foreigner doing business in China you are a stranger, no matter how much they appear to like you, trust you and respect you. The Chinese are gracious, generous and flattering hosts and often give the appearance of welcoming you as friends and business partners (usually accompanied by lovely wine, sumptuous food and big talk!) but you will never gain their real trust until you have invested deeply in the relationship. This requires patience, endless meals, going out of your way to support and understand them, and occasionally making a “leap of faith” to help them with something that they highly value (such as acquiring a foreign passport, opening a door for their child to attend a foreign university or welcoming them into your family) which takes the relationship to a deeper level where you might one day be regarded as part of their family (ie, the third cup of tea). Unfortunately, westerners don’t often appreciate the time and investment required to achieve this, and baulk at the suggestion that they might go out of their way to pick their Chinese visitors up from the airport or buy them a dinner. The western world has become so litigious, transactional and time poor that even some of the most simple common courtesies have been abandoned in chasing the dollar! It wasn’t always this way but the reality now is that you don’t even have to like someone to negotiate a business deal, as long as you’re supported by a watertight contract prepared by a hotshot lawyer who can take the other side to court if they default or mess you around. From my experience, you will be lucky if you are ever able to achieve one trusted and binding relationship in China, no matter more than one. The time, effort and commitment required to make this work can be all consuming and even then you can find that you come across complexities and situations that are hard to understand and resolve. There are no hard and fast rules about how to do this, except to say that you will require lots of patience, emotional intelligence and a deep and genuine respect of Chinese culture to get anywhere near that elusive third cup of tea.
分友善、大方和热情，并且常常给人以待您如 至交和生意伙伴的假象（迎接您的通常还有红 酒、盛宴以及各种夸夸其谈）；但是，除非您 深入投资于这段关系，否则您永远不会得到他 们的真正信任。这个过程考验您的耐心，似乎 包含永无休止的饭局，还需你尽可能地去支持 和理解他们，以及偶尔像“大救星”一样帮助 他们获得其十分看重的东西（比如获得一本外 国护照、帮助他们的孩子进入一所外国大学深 造，或者将您的家庭介绍给他们），从而将这 段关系提升到一个新的高度，这样或许有一天 您将被他们接纳为家庭的一份子（也就是第三 杯茶）。 令人遗憾的是，西方人通常不能理解为维系 这段关系所需投入的时间和投资，更不用说需 要特意前往机场为中国客人接机并请他们吃饭 了。西方人爱打官司、交易目的性太強，并且 时间都很金贵，因此在逐利的过程中都忘记了 一些最为基本的礼仪！虽然现实并非始终如 此，但实际情况就是您根本不需要像某些人那 样通过谈判去做成一桩买卖，您只需带上一份 由大律师拟好的万全合约就行了——如果对方 违约或者把事情搞砸了，您的大律师就可以把 对方告上法庭。 依我的经验来看，如果您能够在中国建立一 段或者更多可以相互信赖的关系，那么您无疑 是十分幸运的。这些关系所需您投入的时间、 精力和承诺可能会让您疲惫不堪，而您甚至还 有可能遇到各种难以理解和和解决的复杂 状况。 如何建立和维护关系并没有么硬性的条条框 框；但我要强调的是您将需要极大的耐心、情 商以及对中国文化的真正尊重方能喝到那杯难 以企及的第三杯茶。
商道
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COVER STORY
封面故事
By Emeritus Professor Peter Drysdale and Mr Zhang Xiaoqiang 作者：彼得·德赖斯代尔和张晓强先生
重拾平衡
REBALANCING ACT A new study, Partnership for Change – The AustraliaChina Joint Economic Report, examines the prospects for strategic trade in resources between Australia and China. Higher View Business proudly presents the executive summary.
在新鲜出炉的《与时俱进的伙伴关系——澳中联合 经济报告》中分析了中、澳战略资源贸易的前景。 《商道》为您隆重呈献此份报告的概要。
A
ustralia and China, two vastly different nations, already have a huge and joint political, economic and social investment in the success of their bilateral relationship. Taken to a higher level, as this Report recommends, this investment in the relationship can have a dramatic additional impact on both economies and societies. This unique partnership stems from a deep alignment of interests that, short of highly negative policymaking, cannot be undone. The relationship is already large and will undergo a huge change. The scale and complexity of the relationship is growing because of the increased role of services and investment, as well as its political and security dimensions. 24 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
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国和澳大利亚两个极度不同的国家共同在政治、经济 和社会方面做出了巨大的努力，塑造了相当成功的双 边关系。 报告推荐，通过双方付出更多努力，把双边关系提升到 更高水平，将有助于两国的经济和社会健康发展。 中澳之间这种独特的伙伴关系植根于双方深厚的利益 互补性，除非受极端负面政策的影响，这种关系不可 逆转。 中澳关系相当重要并面临改变。由于服务业、投资以及 政治和安全层面的重要性日益凸显，这一关系的广度和复 杂性还在继续增加。 这些因素为中澳两国政府支持开展一项有关未来十年两 国关系前景并为此制定双边管理的框架和政策设置的独立 联合研究提供了前提。
商道
Illustration by Gregory Baldwin @ The Illustration Room
封面故事 COVER STORY
商道
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封面故事
These circumstances laid the foundation for support from both governments for an independent joint study of developments in the relationship in the decade ahead, and how to strengthen the bilateral framework and the policy settings for managing it. This Report is the product of an independent study jointly led by the China Centre for International Economic Exchanges in Beijing and by the East Asian Bureau of Economic Research at The Australian National University. Its aim is to define a framework for policymakers and for stakeholders in business, media, research institutions and the community; a framework that enables Australia and China to harness opportunities arising from the profound transformations in their economies.
120% If the supply-side reform agenda is prosecuted successfully, Australian exports to China will grow by 120% in real terms.
WHY AUSTRALIA AND CHINA ARE IMPORTANT TO EACH OTHER
China has for some years been Australia’s largest trading partner and one of its most important bilateral relationships. It is now widely understood that Australia’s economic growth and continued rising living standards are strongly linked to China’s economic success. In the Chinese policy community, there is wide understanding and clear acknowledgement of the economic and political advantages of open, secure and competitive access to Australian iron ore, coal and other raw materials. As China’s economy matures and its middle class expands, China is also enjoying the added dividend of access to Australian agriculture, institutions and services – everything from infant formula to vitamins, butter to beef, education to tourism, as well as advanced science, technology and research capabilities. Australia’s open society provides Chinese investments with security in a stable and well-functioning market economy that guarantees transparent recourse to political, legal and regulatory institutions.
Despite recent slowdowns, China will remain a key driver of global growth in the coming decade. 26 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
如果这些改革措施得以成功实施， 澳大利亚对华实际出口将增长120%， 而中国对澳出口将增长44%。
这份报告是由中国国际经济交流中心和澳大利亚国立大 学东亚研究所联合完成的独立研究成果。其目的是为决策 者和商界、媒体、研究机构、社团组织等利益相关者提供 一个中澳合作框架，使得两国能够充分把握各自经济转型 中的机会并相向而行。 为什么中国和澳大利亚对彼此很重要 多年来，中国一直是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴及其最重 要的双边关系国之一。众所周知，澳大利亚的经济增长和 持续提升的生活质量与中国经济的成功息息相关。 中国领导人也清晰地意识到，借助建立开放、安全、竞 争的经济政治安排，可以从澳大利亚便利地获取铁矿石、 煤炭和其他原材料。 随着中国消费者的成熟和中产阶层的壮大，中国正从澳 大利亚农业、服务业部门和公共机构分享红利，享受包括 婴儿奶粉、维他命（类营养品）、奶酪、牛肉、教育、旅 游、先进科技和研发能力等产品或服务。竞争开放的澳大 利亚向中国投资者提供了一个安全稳定、良性运转的市场 制度，通过保持对政治、法律和监管机构的公开透明，保 障投资的安全。 中澳之间商业交流渠道是双向的。随着游客、学生、投 资者和移民持续涌现，中澳经贸关系日益增进和多样化， 两国均从中获益良多。近十多年来，中国已经成为世界上 重要的经济增长引擎。尽管近期增速放缓，未来十年中国 仍将是世界增长的关键驱动力。如果中国正在实施的全面 深化改革方案取得成功，未来十年中国仍能取得约6%的年 均GDP增速。 显然，未来十年中国经济增长对澳大利亚的影响将与过 去大不相同。澳大利亚将不再仅仅是个遥远的原材料供应 地，而是显著地存在于中国人的日常生活中。尤其是那些 未来几十年需求和收入持续增长的城市中产阶层，他们将 会明显感受到澳大利亚的存在。 中澳新型伙伴关系具有格外重要的价值内涵。澳大利亚 与东亚地区经济上相互依存，更高度依存于中国的成功。 商道
COVER STORY
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These new avenues of commercial exchange are a two-way street. Both Australia and China gain from growing and diversifying their economic relationship through new flows of tourists, students, investors and migrants. For more than a decade, China has been the world’s main economic growth engine. Despite recent slowdowns, China will remain a key driver of global growth in the coming decade. If China’s reform agenda succeeds, it can achieve annual GDP growth of around six per cent a year over the next ten years. But it is obvious that the impact of China’s growth on Australia over the next ten years will be very different from in the past. Australia will no longer only be a remote supplier of raw materials. It can be a palpable and distinctive presence in Chinese daily life, particularly for the urban middle classes whose aspirations and incomes will continue to expand for several decades. The newly emerging partnership between Australia and China has a significant and valuable extra dimension. Australia is not only economically enmeshed with East Asia, giving it a high stake in China’s success. It also has strong economic, cultural and strategic links to the United States, and therefore a compelling interest in a positive relationship between the United States and China. Australia’s geopolitical and geo-economic position and its multicultural society are thus unique assets in shaping China’s links with the West. Chinese and Australian prosperity has depended on the liberal, rules-based global system. Both countries have a compelling interest in the successful adaptation of the institutions of global governance to the economic and security challenges of the 21st century. A deeper partnership between China and Australia can be a powerful force for the strengthening and developing of these institutions. Australia’s long-standing commitment to global institutions, its deep engagement with the economies of Asia and its historical ties with Europe and North America are complementary to China’s status as a major economic power and its declared willingness to help supply and shape the international public goods of the 21st century in the task of reforming and strengthening the regional and global frameworks of cooperation and governance. This adds significant weight to Australia’s support for China’s growing role in the provision of international public goods, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Both countries have a common commitment to China’s participation in global institutions and rules.
BENEFITS OF CLOSER ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP China is shifting its growth drivers from investment, exports and heavy industry to consumption, innovation and services. China’s growth slowdown does not threaten this transformation; it is a symptom of it. This transformation
Inbound tourism from China is set to treble by 2025. 它还与美国有着很强的经济、文化、战略联系，从而在帮 助塑造良好的中美关系方面具有不可比拟的优势。因此， 澳大利亚对中美间能否保持良好的关系有着非常切身的 利益。 因此，澳大利亚地缘政治经济地位及其多元文化社会成 为强化中国与西方国家关系的独特资源。 中国和澳大利亚的繁荣建立在自由的、基于规则的全球 体系之上。两国有共同的重大关切，依靠全球治理机制来 成功应对21世纪经济和安全领域的挑战。进一步深化中澳 伙伴关系有助于强化和完善全球治理机制。澳大利亚是 全球治理机制的坚定参与者，不仅与亚洲经济深度融合， 而且与欧洲、北美颇具历史渊源，有助于中国巩固主要经 济大国地位，也有助于中国推进区域合作框架和全球治理 体系的改革发展并达成增加21世纪国际公共品供给的良好 夙愿。 中国正成长为国际公共品的提供者。深化中澳关系可以 极大地增加获取澳方支持的分量，如澳大利亚是中国倡议 的亚洲基础设施投资银行的积极支持者。在推动中国参与 全球治理机制和规则制定上，两国有着共同的追求。
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will, by itself, lead to fast growth in trade between Australia and China in real terms, much of it in services. Even in a pessimistic scenario, in which average Chinese growth is below five per cent over the next ten years, our estimates suggest that Australian exports to China would still grow by 28 per cent and Chinese exports to Australia by 20 per cent. A “baseline” scenario has Australian exports growing by 72 per cent and Chinese exports by 41 per cent over the same period. The biggest gains, however, would be realised if Australia and China work to implement the supply-side reforms recommended in this Report. If this reform agenda is prosecuted successfully, Australian exports to China will grow by 120 per cent in real terms, and Chinese exports to Australia by 44 per cent. For China, this is conditional on the implementation of a reform agenda that embraces financial and factor reform, state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform, increased openness to foreign investment and capital account liberalisation. For Australia, it means increased competition in sheltered industries, openness to foreign investment and skills, and facilitating investment in social and physical infrastructure. Increased trade and investment will mean higher national incomes, more employment and more tax revenue for both China and Australia. The structural changes in the Chinese economy presage a change in the structure of trade. The profound complementarity stemming from Australia’s energy and resource abundance and China’s industrialisation will remain a key pillar of the relationship, but will be increasingly augmented by services such as education and tourism, with inbound tourism from China set to treble by 2025. Education and tourism services will jump from eight per cent to almost 20 per cent of Australian exports to China in 2025 in even the “business as usual” scenario. Machinery and equipment will jump from just below 20 per cent of Chinese exports to Australia to 28 per cent. Chinese production is shifting from a model based on adaptation and imitation of goods, services and
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Education and tourism services will jump from 8% to almost 20% of Australian exports to China in 2025. 教育和旅游业将从现在占澳 大利亚对华出口的8%增加到 2025年的近乎20%。
Australia is a natural partner and a promising test bed for China in its reform effort. 建立更加密切经济伙伴关系的好处 中国经济增长的动力正从投资、出口和重工业向消费、 创新和服务业转变。中国经济增长放缓并不会威胁到这一 转型，反而是经济转型的一种表征。 实际上，这一转型本身将会带来中澳贸易的快速增长， 尤其是在服务业领域。据估计，即便在最坏的情景下，即 未来10年中国经济增长降低到5%以下，澳大利亚对华出口 仍将增长28%，而中国对澳出口也将增长20%。在基准情 景下，未来10年中国经济增长平稳，澳大利亚对华出口将 增长72%，而中国对澳出口将增长41%。 然而，如果中澳能共同努力实施本报告建议的改革措 施，双方收益将会最大化。如果这些改革措施得以成功实 施，澳大利亚对华实际出口将增长120%，而中国对澳出口 将增长44%。就中国而言，这一改革议程包括：金融和要 素市场改革、国有企业改革、加大对外商投资开放程度和 资本账户自由化。对澳大利亚来说，这意味着提升受保护 产业竞争程度，加大外商投资和技能开放，推进社会和物 理基础设施投资便利化。 对中澳两国来说，贸易和投资规模的增加意味着更高的 国民收入水平、更多的就业机会和更多的税收收入。 中国经济结构的改变预示其贸易结构的改变。中澳全面 的互补关系来自于澳大利亚丰富的能源资源供应和中国的 工业化。今后这仍将是维持两国互补关系的重要支柱，与 此同时，教育、旅游等服务业领域的发展将进一步夯实这 一互补关系。即使依据基准情景预测，到2025年，中国到 澳洲的游客将增加三倍，教育和旅游业将从现在占澳大利 亚对华出口的8%增加到2025年的近乎20%，机器和设备将 从现在占中国对澳出口的20%以下上升到28%。 中国制造将从模仿改造别国的货物、服务和技术的模式 转变为自主创新驱动的模式。这种转变背后的驱动力来自 于中国对其创新生态体系的大量投资。澳大利亚高品质的 高等教育行业（现已是重要的对华出口服务部门）及其 “国家创新和科学进程”战略，使其自然成为中国创新驱 动转型中的良好伙伴。成熟的金融系统可以把资本有效配 置到最具创新能力和效率最高的企业。澳大利亚在建立高 度发达的金融系统方面拥有丰富经验。这对中国极具借鉴 价值。在投资政策、服务市场改革试验和在亚太地区寻找 与澳方地缘政治利益的更大交汇点等方面，中国从双边伙 伴关系中也能找到特定利益。
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technologies developed elsewhere, to a model based on domestic innovation. This is being driven by a substantial investment in China’s innovation ecosystem. Australia’s high-quality tertiary education sector (already a major services exporter to China) and its commitment to its own National Innovation and Science Agenda make it a natural partner in this transformation. Australia’s experience in building a highly developed financial system can also be of value to China, where a sophisticated financial system will be crucial for allocating capital to the most innovative and efficient firms. China sees special benefit in the partnership with Australia for trialling reforms in investment policy and services markets, as well as seeking greater alignment with Australia in its geopolitical interests in Asia and the Pacific. In short, there is every reason to believe that the Australia-China relationship will become more, not less, important to both countries as the Chinese economy continues to change and upgrade. For Australia, this means enhanced long-term economic capacity through opportunities for new trade and productivity-boosting innovation, as well as through improving national infrastructure and the development of regional Australia. For China, this means a sustainable path through middle-income status on its way to becoming a high-income economy through economic upgrading and diversification.
6% If China’s reform agenda succeeds, it can achieve annual GDP growth of around six per cent a year over the next ten years. 如果中国正在实施的全面深化改革方案 取得成功，未来十年中国仍能取得约6% 的年均GDP增速。
简言之，无论从哪个方面来看，随着中国经济的持续变 化和不断升级，中澳关系对两国的重要性都只会增加而不 会降低。 对澳大利亚来说，这意味着通过把握贸易和促进生产力 的创新、通过改进全国性基础设施和增加地方发展所带来 的机会，增强其经济长期发展的能力。 对中国来说，这意味着通过转型升级和多样化发展， 寻找到一条由中等收入迈向高收入经济体的可持续发展 之路。
TOWARDS A NEW POLICY FRAMEWORK
The need for an upgraded policy framework is broadly accepted in both countries. That is why both governments have financially and institutionally supported the production of this Report and provided the necessary access to allow wide consultations with the key economic
通向全新政策框架之路 亟需一个升级版的政策框架是中澳两国广泛认可的。 这也是两国政府对本报告给予资金和机制安排支持的原 因。为此，两国政府还提供必不可少的便利支持，允许与 关键的政府部门和代表处、地方政府、研究机构、商界领 商道
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ministries and agencies on both sides, as well as with subnational governments, key research institutions, business leaders and community figures. Creating an upgraded framework is a complex task: it will require building a new set of national capabilities in both countries. These will best be founded on past experience and achievements. In the 1980s, Australia and China established what they called a “model relationship” between two economies with different political and social systems and at different stages of development. This was the two countries’ first significant joint effort at building a framework for their relations. This principle should continue to guide the bilateral relationship to higher levels. Australia embraced China’s openness and reform as a critical factor in regional prosperity and stability. China embraced the partnership with Australia as a crucial part of its opening policy, and Australia assumed a key role in China’s foreign economic strategy. This pathbreaking partnership opened marketbased resources trade, foreign investment and regional cooperation with China – leading to positive engagement with China in APEC and working together on China’s accession to the WTO. Australia and China have since worked to strengthen regional economic cooperation through APEC, the ASEAN Plus frameworks and the East Asia Summit in order to secure the framework of political confidence and security necessary to economic prosperity. Australia and China already have a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, agreed in 2014, which guarantees high-level attention to the bilateral relationship through an annual Leaders Meeting, Strategic Economic Dialogue, and Foreign and Security Dialogue. Australia and China also have the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA), which delivers significant trade liberalisation and opens the door in both countries to new and wider access to investment and the services sector. Indeed, ChAFTA has the potential to serve as a key agent in transforming the commercial relationship between the two countries in the coming decade. But the full opportunity of these arrangements is far from being realised – both countries must now provide for the comprehensive setting of strategic bilateral objectives in a forward agenda. This will depend on new frameworks for institutionalising active collaboration on policy development and reform. China is now building regional and global institutions that are commensurate to its place in the international economic system. China’s lead on the AIIB and the One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiatives represent China embedding its interests jointly with others partners to bolster infrastructure investment and regional connectivity. Australia has worked closely with China in the IMF and other international economic bodies to support these Chinese initiatives. 30 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
袖和民间代表等进行广泛和必要的咨询。 创建一个升级版的政策框架是一项复杂的工程。它意味 着要在每个国家建立一套新的国家能力。这最好是基于以 往取得的经验和成就之上。 20世纪80年代，中澳这两个不同政治社会制度和不同发 展阶段的经济体建立起了所称的“模范关系”。这是两国 首次联合做出重大努力来建立两国关系框架。这一努力应 得以继续，以引领两国关系迈向更高水平。 澳大利亚接纳中国的改革开放，并视其为区域繁荣和稳 定的关键因素。中国愿意与澳大利亚建立伙伴关系，视其 为对外开放政策的重要部分，并视澳大利亚为中国开放型 经济战略中的关键角色。这一开创性的伙伴关系开启了中 澳之间基于市场规则的资源贸易、双向投资和区域合作进 程，也为中国积极参与 APEC 和加入WTO作出了贡献。 自此中澳两国继续携手并进，通过APEC、东盟加 （ASEAN+）框架和东亚峰会来加强区域间经济合作，以 便建立政治互信和地区安全的框架来保障经济繁荣。 2014年中澳建立了全面战略伙伴关系，通过年度领导人 会晤、战略经济对话、外交安全对话等机制确保对两国双 边关系的高度重视。中澳两国也达成了中澳自贸协定 （ChAFTA），它极大地推动双边贸易自由化、更广泛的 投资便利化和服务业市场开放。事实上，中澳自贸协定具 有促进未来十年两国商业关系转型关键引擎的潜力。 但这些机制所提供的各种机会远未完全实现。在未来议 程中，两国必须对双边战略目标进行综合考量。这需要设 计一个全新的框架，促使双方在改革和政策制定方面的积 极合作制度化。 中国正在建立与自己在国际经济体系中的地位相称的区 域性和全球性架构。中国提议的亚洲基础设施投资银行 和“一带一路”倡议代表了中国正在将自身利益与其伙伴 国利益相融合，加大基础设施投资支持力度，促进区域内 和区域间的互联互通。 澳大利亚与中国密切合作，在IMF和其他国际经济组织中 支持中国的这些倡议。澳大利亚是亚洲基础设施投资银行 的创始成员国，而且通过开发北澳的项目方式参加“一带 一路”倡议。在G20框架下，两国密切合作，为推动全球 增长和多边贸易制度改革分享议程。 提升两国关系的新视角：全新的政策框架和规划要点
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A “baseline” scenario has Australian exports to China growing by 72% over the next ten years. 未来10年中国经济增长 平稳，澳大利亚对华出口 将增长72%。
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Australia is a founding member of the AIIB, and participates in OBOR through programmes including the development of Northern Australia. There has been close collaboration in the G20 on shared agendas for global growth and reforming the multilateral trading system.
MANAGING NEW DIMENSIONS OF THE RELATIONSHIP: POLICY FRAMEWORK AND PROGRAMMES
How are Australia and China going to manage their increasingly complex relationship – a relationship in which China is by far the biggest economy in Asia, is the second-largest economy in the world, is deeply enmeshed in a complex relationship with the United States, and is projecting growing political confidence? Close cooperation with Australia should be an integral part of the next phase of China’s economic reform and opening. Collaboration on service sector reform, financial restructuring and capital account liberalisation will help China realise its growth potential. As an advanced regional services-based economy, Australia is a natural partner and a promising test bed for China in its reform effort. This Report outlines the key ideas and programmes for dealing with this question. The conclusions that follow are envisaged as a long-term agenda of cooperation for bilateral relations, and will require careful consideration by both governments and other stakeholders in the relationship over the decade ahead. This Report shows that, in order to realise the opportunities and counter the risks to bilateral growth, the Australian and Chinese governments should sensibly elevate their relationship to the unique level of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for Change. Leadership at the highest level should signal the priority attached to development of the relationship. In particular: • The new Comprehensive Strategic Partnership for Change that this Report recommends would build on ChAFTA and the current annual Leaders Meeting, and parallel ministerial meetings, through establishing joint policy working groups that support this work and other policy initiatives stemming from the leaders’ dialogues and advance ongoing policy development and reform: for example, in the negotiation of a new Agreement on Investment within the framework of ChAFTA or on access to services markets and other issues (see below). • Joint policy working groups can work, as needed, with state and provincial authorities, business sectors, research institutes and community-based interests on specific initiatives to advance the trade, investment, financial, regional and global reform agendas of both countries. These working groups can assist in affecting the bilateral commitments to further
中澳两国如何处理好日益复杂的双边关系？两国关系的 复杂性在于：中国目前已是亚洲最大的经济体、世界第二 大经济体，并且政治自信日益增强，但与世界第一大经济 体美国之间有着盘根错节的关系。 中国应把与澳大利亚的密切合作视为其新一轮改革开放 战略中不可分割的一部分。两国在服务业开放、金融体制 改革、资本账户开放等领域的合作将有助于中国实现其增 长目标。作为以服务为主的发达经济体，澳大利亚可以成 为中国改革开放的天然伙伴和试验温床。 报告阐述了如何处理好日益复杂的中澳关系这一议题的 关键理念和规划。以下结论是为两国合作的远景议程而设 计，在未来十年里，需要两国政府及其他利益相关者深思 细酌。 报告建议，为了更好地把握发展机遇和抵御增长风险， 中澳两国政府应把双边关系提升到与时俱进的全面战略伙 伴关系这一特殊高度。两国最高层领导人应该优先明确提 升两国关系的重点。 具体如下： 报告建议的“与时俱进的全面战略伙伴关系”应建立在 中澳自贸协定和已有年度领导人会晤以及平行部长级对话 基础之上，通过建立联合政策工作组以支持这一工作，以 及由此产生的的政策倡议，并推进实施正在进行的政策和 改革措施：例如在中澳自贸协定下开展双边投资协定谈 判、开放服务市场准入及其他议题（见下）。 • 根据需要，联合政策工作组可以和州/省政府、商界、 研究机构、社会团体一起工作，就两国关心的具体的 贸易、投资、金融、区域和全球改革议程等问题提出 倡议。 • 这些工作组可以协助落实中澳自贸协定所做的有关投资 自由化和服务市场准入方面的双边承诺。 • 海洋经济是两国间极具合作潜力的一个领域。双方都是 商道
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investment liberalisation and expanded access to services markets made under ChAFTA. The two countries should also establish a working group for dialogue and cooperation on the maritime economy, as this is a particular area of potentially productive collaboration between Australia and China. Both countries are maritime powers with common interests in seaborne supply routes and many other maritime issues. • Both governments should aim, over the decade ahead, to draw on precedent from their other bilateral relationships and embed their new partnership into a comprehensive bilateral Basic Treaty of Cooperation. This treaty would lock in the practice and principles for cooperation, and: commit to regular high-level government dialogues; set out the principles for managing the relationship that are enunciated in this Report; institutionalise official bilateral exchanges and technical cooperation programmes between economic and foreign affairs ministries, including branches of the military; include policy approaches between federalstate governments in Australia and central-provincial governments in China; provide for the comprehensive setting of strategic bilateral objectives in a forward agenda; enfold the agreements, mechanisms and reforms of the ChAFTA arrangement; and entrench cooperation on improving educational, cultural and people-to-people exchange. • Both countries should nurture the capacities necessary for new high-level engagement through establishing
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If these steps are taken, the Australia-China relationship will be taken to a wholly new level. 海洋大国，在海运路线和其他许多海洋议题上有着共同 的利益。两国应为促进在海洋经济方面的对话与合作设 立一个工作组。 • 两国政府应致力于在未来十年汲取各自双边关系的经 验，并把中澳新型伙伴关系纳入一个全面、友好、合作 的双边条约里。 • 这一条约将规定合作原则与做法，包括：定期政府高层 对话；设定本报告建议的两国关系管理原则；推动经 济、外交、军事等部门官方交流和技术合作项目制度 化；加强中澳各自中央-地方政府或联邦-州政府之间的接 触；在前瞻性政策议程中提供全面的双边战略目标设 定；包含中澳自贸协定安排中的各项协议、机制和改革 措施；强化日益改善的教育、文化和人员交流方面的合 作。 • 两国应培育全新的高层次接触所必需的能力，为此可通
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by treaty agreement a new and well-resourced bi-national Australia-China (Ao–Zhong) Commission in the form of a statutory entity that operates independently of both governments. This Commission will boost the level and range of policy, research, scientific, technology, education, cultural and peopleto-people exchanges between the two countries. Its nearest parallel in Australian experience is the treaty arrangement between Australia and the United States that established the Australian-American Fulbright Commission after World War II. Within the framework and provisions of ChAFTA, Australia and China should move to negotiate a comprehensive Agreement on Investment – incorporating a “negative list” approach, effective national treatment of foreign investors, respect for rule of law, resource access guarantees, and greater mobility of people – ahead of Chinese agreements with the European Union and the United States. The Agreement on Investment can serve as a model for a regional investment regime in East Asia. Investment flows from China to Australia and from Australia to China will play a critical role in the development of the new economic relationship from exchange, to investment, and now to partnership. This will not be achieved if the broader community does not grasp the benefits of foreign investment in both Australia and China. In Australia, this means accepting equal treatment for Chinese investment and reconsidering attitudes towards state-owned investors from all countries. In China, it means building respect for rule of law to make investments secure and predictable for all domestic and international parties. The reengineering of the bilateral architecture that is proposed should be aligned with the Australian government’s National Innovation and Science Agenda and the Chinese government’s innovation priority in its 13th Five Year Plan. This would see the prioritisation of bilateral cooperation in future opportunities in research and development, capital sourcing, STEM collaboration, research commercialisation, tech landing pads, the digital economy, and exchanges between Australian and Chinese entrepreneurs and investors. Australia and China should attach top priority to the conclusion of a high-standard agreement on trade and investment liberalisation and ongoing economic cooperation arrangements in the Asia Pacific under the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. The two countries’ shared interest in the G20 and constructive participation in global economic governance should focus on China’s role in mutual support among the major currencies; securing the international financial safety net to protect against the spread of financial crises; connecting reform to
28% Even in a pessimistic scenario, Australian exports to China would still grow by 28% over the next ten years. 即便在最坏的情景下，未来10年中国 经济增长降低到5%以下，澳大利亚对 华出口仍将增长28%。
过条约协议建立起一个全新的资源充沛的中澳委员会， 该委员会以法定实体的形式存在，独立于两国政府 之外。 • 该委员会将提升两国在政策、研究、科学、技术、教 育，文化和人员交流等方面的层次和幅度。澳大利亚方 面与此最相似的经验是二战后澳大利亚和美国以条约协 议的形式建立起的澳-美富布赖特委员会。 • 在中澳自贸协定的框架和条款范围内，中澳两国应该着 手开展源获取权和人员更频繁自由的流动。该投 资协定 应先于中欧、中美双边投资协定签署，并使其成为东亚 区域投资协定的蓝本。中澳之间的双向投资将对构建中 澳新型伙伴关系发挥关键的作用，包括从交易、投资到 现在的伙伴关系中的各个环节所起的作用。 但是如果中澳广大民众不能认识到外国投资带来的好 处，以上的各种讨论都无法实现。在澳大利亚，这意味着 要对中国投资者提供同等待遇，并重新审视对各地国有投 资者的态度。在中国，这意味着建立起遵法守规的制度， 让国内外所有投资者都能得到安全、可预期的投资保障。 • 本报进程”战略以及中国“十三五”规划中的创新驱动 战略保持一致。 • 今后双边合作的机会应重点放在研发、集资、科技-教育数学合作领域、研究成果商业化、技术孵化平台、数字 经济、企业家和投资者交流等方面。 • 在区域全面经济伙伴关系（RCEP）的框架下，中澳两国 应把建设高水平的贸易投资协定和亚太地区持续的经济 合作放在首要的位置。 • 中澳两国在G20框架下的共同利益和在全球经济治理中 的建设性参与应着重强调以下几个方面：中国在主要货 币互持中扮演的角色，构建国际金融安全网以防范金融 危机的蔓延，将改革与经济增长结合起来，加大多边贸 易体制改革力度等。 • 非常重要的是，中澳两国应在能源转型议题上推动与日 本、韩国、印度、美国和其他区域伙伴开展高水平的区 域对话。能源转型是应对气候变化和解决其他环境问题 必不可缺的一环。在这一领域，建立区域合作机制将大
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If the supply-side reform agenda is prosecuted successfully, Chinese exports to Australia will grow by 44%. 如果中澳能共同努力实施本报 告建议的改革措施，中国对澳 出口将增长44%。
economic growth; and intensifying efforts to reform the multilateral trading system. • Importantly, China and Australia should instigate top-level regional dialogues with Japan, South Korea, India, the United States and other key players in the region on the energy transformation that is necessary to mitigate climate change and other environmental issues. This is a fruitful area for regional coalitionbuilding on an issue in which China, as it seeks to reconcile increasing energy use with its environmental ambitions, and Australia, as a major energy supplier to the region, have a major stake. It is also an area in which cooperation with other Asia Pacific countries could be very productive politically. If these steps are taken, the Australia-China relationship will be taken to a wholly new level. While fully respectful of each other’s existing relationships (such as Australia’s ANZUS relationship with the United States), the new partnership will be a powerful force for the stability and prosperity of the region, and indeed for the global system. It can serve as a principal vector of Australian and Chinese engagement within a rapidly changing world. Nurtured carefully and imaginatively by governments, businesses, research institutions and other stakeholders on both sides, this deeper partnership could become one of the most strategically vital and productive bilateral relationships that either country has in the world.
有作为。中国正在寻找解决能源消耗增长和环境保护约 束之间矛盾的良方，澳大利亚则是本区域主要的能源供 应国，两国对此都有切身利益。这也是一个可与亚太国 家开展合作的领域，并且能在政治领域取得较多收获。 速变化世界的主要矢量之一。在双方政府、商界、研究 机构和其他利益相关者悉心而富有想象力地培育下，中澳 两国更加深化的伙伴关系将成为世界双边关系中最具战略 重要性和最富成效的双边关系之一。 如果以上建议得到采纳，中澳关系将迈上一个新的台 阶。在彼此充分尊重各自既有关系的同时（如澳大利亚与 美国的澳新美关系），中澳新型伙伴关系将成为区域乃至 全球体系稳定和繁荣的重要力量。它还可以作为中澳国民 接触一个快速变化世界的主要矢量之一。在双方政府、商 界、研究机构和其他利益相关者悉心而富有想象力地培育 下，中澳两国更加深化的伙伴关系将成为世界双边关系中 最具战略重要性和最富成效的双边关系之一。
《与时俱进的伙伴关系——澳中联合经济报告》由澳大利 亚国立大学（ANU）东亚经济研究所荣誉退休教授 彼得·德赖斯代尔（Emeritus Professor Peter Drysdale） 与中国国际经济交流中心（CCIEE）常务副理事长、中国 人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会（NDRC）前副主任张 晓强牵头，是有关澳中两国经济关系的第一份学术报告。
The Australia-China Joint Economic Report (ACJER) is the first major joint study of the economic relationship between Australia and China. It is led by Emeritus Professor Peter Drysdale of the East Asian Bureau of Economic Research (EABER) at The Australian National University (ANU) and Mr Zhang Xiaoqiang, Executive Director of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE) and former Vice Minister of China’s National Development Reform Commission (NDRC). 34 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
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封面故事
the pure essentials of watchmaking, elevated to the level of art.
SEIKO BOUTIQUE AUSTRALIA H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 3 5 道 Shop 63, Lower Ground Floor, Queen Victoria商Building, 455 George Street, SYDNEY NSW 2000
ECONOMY
经济
By Stephen So, Head of Investment, KVB Kunlun Australia (AFS licensees - Financial advisers register number: 001233032) 作者：蘇志恒是KVB Kunlun Australia的投资总监 （AFS持证人；金融顾问注册号：001233032）
2017年：黑天鹅还是白天鹅？
2017: BLACK OR WHITE SWAN? The dramatic political and economic events that marked 2016 are set to leave their mark, with higher volatility expected well into the new year – according to KVB Kunlun Head of Investment in Australia Stephen So. 2016年期间发生的一系列突出政治和经济事件注定2017年亦将是 变幻莫测的一年——KVB Kunlun澳大利亚投资总监Stephen So。
T
o say 2016 was the “year of swans” is not an understatement. From the most surprising and controversial BREXIT in June to the most tactically nasty presidential election campaign since the Watergate incident in the early 1970s, the subsequent dramatic change in the leadership of the United States concluded an eventful but unsettling year. On the global economic front, US interest rates and greenback trends have become clearer, but the underlying, deep-down risk is even more frightening. Ever since the rise of “Greenspan-conomics” in the 1990s, the central banks have taken the notion of Keynesian fine-tuning to the extreme and will now have to deal with the consequences. History has clearly shown that fuelling growth with debt is toxic to the real economy and leads to a debt deflationary downward spiral. In our view, the most severe synchronised debt deflationary spiral is about to be experienced on a global scale. Almost every major regional player is facing a two-speed economy and runaway asset price inflation fuelled by misallocation of capital.
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ASSET REALLOCATION
Looking ahead to 2017, the foreign exchange market will shape up a new wave of asset reallocation across the globe. First of all, interest rate normalisation will be the focus for the next four years. While US economy fundamentals have improved significantly since the global financial crisis, most positive news and data has been fully discounted in the current market valuation. The US stock and bonds markets have been hovering in historical high territory for some time now. A sizable correction, required to keep valuations
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As long as the Chinese economy grows at its current reasonable rate between 6-7 per cent, the Australian economy will do fine in 2017. 只要中国经济按目前 6-7%的合理增速保持 增长，那么2017年的 澳大利亚经济亦将 高枕无忧。
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说
2016年是“天鹅之年”一点都不为过。 从6月份最令人咋舌且颇具争议的英国退 欧，到从70年代初期水门事件以来手段最下作 的总统竞选，这个多事之年在动荡中落下了 帷幕。 在全球经济前沿，美元利率和美元走势已是 清楚得不能再清楚了，但其背后所深藏的风险 则让人更加惊恐万分。自90年代“格林斯潘经 济学”崛起之后，各国央行已经将凯恩斯的微 调学说执行到极致，而如今只能默默品尝它们 自己种下的苦果。 历史清晰地证明利用债务来推动经济增长之 举对实体经济有害，并导致了债务-通缩的螺 旋式下行。依我们之见，全球即将迎来与之并 驾齐驱的最严重的债务-通缩螺旋式上升。许 多地区领头羊正在面临着双速经济以及因资本 分配不当而加剧的外逃资本价格飞涨的问题。 资产重组 展望2017年，外汇市场将在全球形成一波新 的资产重组浪潮。 首先，利率正常化将是未来四年的焦点所 在。虽然自全球金融危机以来美国经济基本面 已得到显著改善，但在当前的市场估值之下很 多积极的消息和数据都被打了大大的折扣。美 国证券市场已在历史高位盘桓了相当长的一段
ECONOMY
Photo by llstein bild / Getty Images
经济
and investors’ uneasiness under control, is well overdue. Right now, it’s hard to imagine a catalyst capable of prompting the equity market to charge much higher. At the same time, in order to reach goals of currency and capital market reform, continuous depreciation or the “managed float” of the CNY will become increasingly significant over the next few years. These two opposing forces, together with the BREXIT debacle, will cause another round of asset price re-balancing around the world. If so, this will be a headwind for the US economy, for China and other emerging markets that borrowed the highly liquid currency at lower levels for the past ten years. In other words, if the greenback is too strong, the next global economic recovery could be delayed. Investors should be wary about positions in both stocks and bonds and in those many overstretched property markets around the world.
CNY JOURNEY
In 2016, news that the CNY had been officially added to the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket was
greeted with a barrage of hype from the media. Many people think demand for the CNY as reserve currency will explode and some even say it will replace the EURO or even the USD as the world reserve currency in the not-sodistant future. While it is true that the international circulation of CNY will increase exponentially in the next ten years, the idea that the CNY will become world reserve currency due to its SDR status is flawed. In our view, the CNY has a journey to make before it becomes truly free-floating. Do not forget that it took more than three decades for the greenback to claim the status of world reserve currency. And the US and world economy have experienced quite a few painful lessons and adjustments along the road.
CLOSED SYSTEM
In terms of the USDCNY exchange rate, evidence is increasingly showing the Chinese currency may reach the $7.00 mark and potentially head higher. At this point, it must be emphasised that although Chinese corporate debt along with the banking sector have been 商道
This is the biggest synchronised debt bubble in history. 时间；维持估值并稳住投资者情绪所需的大规 模调整迟迟未到。此时此刻，我们很难想象还 能有什么“催化剂”可以让股市更上一层楼。 与此同时，为了实现货币和资本市场改革的 各项目标，未来数年内的人民币的持续贬值或 “有序浮动”无疑将会变得愈发显著。这两股 互相角力的势力连同英国的退欧将会引发全球 新一轮的资产价值再平衡。这种局面无疑不利 于美国经济、中国以及其它在过去十年间以较 低利率借了高流动性货币债务的其它新兴经济 体。换而言之，如果美元过于强势，则下一次 的全球经济复苏将会姗姗来迟。投资者应当对 其在全球证券和债券市场以及那些发展过快的 地产市场中所持的仓位慎之又慎。 H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 37
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branded the “biggest threat” to the domestic and global economy and financial markets by the mainstream, the chance of a full-blown global financial crisis due to internal shock in China is relatively slim. While it cannot be denied there is a whole array of risks lurking below China’s healthy 6.7 percent GDP growth, most people overlook the important fact that even after three decades of reform, the Chinese capital market and financial system to some extent remain a closed system. With the new “opening door” policy to the world, China’s central government in fact has stricter management measures in place than before. In other words, while existing risks and problems may create tremors to the financial market this year, they are manageable at this stage, with a full-blown systemic shock able to be contained. Sometimes, we just cannot measure China by Western standards.
LUCKY COUNTRY
For Australia, the picture has been brighter. We continue to be the “Lucky Country” for the time being. First of all, thanks to the insatiable demand from China for our health products, food and of course properties and farms, our terms of trade have rebounded strongly since 2015 and continue to rise. Assuming the current strength in iron ore and coal prices continue into 2017, Australia
经济
USD $7.40 In USDCNY exchange rate, evidence shows CNY will soon breach the $7.00 mark and head towards $7.40 by the end of 2017. 愈来愈多的迹象显示人民币兑美元的汇 率即将突破7.00美元的大关，并将在 2017年底之前达到7.4美元。
will soon have a balance of payment surplus by the first quarter of 2017. More importantly, as the multi-steps depreciation of the CNY continues, the influx of capital from China to Australia – albeit slower than the period of 2013-2016 – should be able to maintain a stable pace at least for 2017. As long as the Chinese economy grows at its current reasonable rate between 6-7 percent, the Australian economy will do fine in 2017. And let’s not forget our other Asian trading neighbours like Indonesia, India, Malaysia, and Vietnam, who also achieved stronger GDP growth this year.
人民币前路漫漫 2016年，人民币被正式纳入国际货币基金组 织特别提款权（SRD）货币篮的消息为媒体提 供了一个热炒的话题。许多人认为人民币作为 一种储备货币，其需求将会迎来爆炸式增长； 还有人甚至认为在并不久远的将来人民币势将 取代欧元甚至美元成为一个世界级的储备 货币。 诚然，未来十年内人民币的国际流通量将会 呈指数增长，但人民币因特别提款权身份而成 为世界级储备货币的想法显然有失偏颇。依我 之见，人民币在真正实现自由流通之前还有一 段很长的路要走。切记美元当初可是花了三十 多年的时间方才取得世界级储备货币的身份， 而美国和全球经济在这一路上可是经历了诸多 的坎坷和调整。 封闭式体系 在汇率方面，愈来愈多的迹象显示人民币兑 美元的汇率即将突破7.00美元的大关，并可能 还会再攀新高。眼下必须强调的是，虽然主流 观点认为中国企业债务连同银行业是国内和全 球经济以及金融市场的“最大威胁”，但中国 内部巨震触发全方位全球金融危机的可能性还 是微乎其微的。虽然不可否认的是，中国看似 稳健的6.7%GDP增速背后潜藏着一系列的风 险，但绝大部分人都忽视了一个至关重要的事 实，那就是即便在三十年的改革之后，中国的 资本市场和金融体系在某种程度上依然属于一 个封闭式的体系。 在向全球“打开国门”的新政策背后，中国 中央政府实际上监管措施更严。换而言之，虽 然现有各项风险和问题可能会给今年的金融市 场带来冲击，但眼下这些风险和问题均在可管 控的范围之内；中国政府完全有能力控制住全 方位系统性风险的爆发。 有些时候，我们只是不能将西方标准生生套 在中国身上。 有福之国 对于澳大利亚而言，我们的前途是光明的。 眼下我们依然是“有福之国”。首先，得益于 中国人对本国保健品、食品、地产和农场的渴 求，澳大利亚的进出口比率自2015年起就开始 迎来强劲反弹，并在持续走高。 假设当前的铁矿和煤炭价格的良好形势能够 保持到2017年，那么澳大利亚很快将在2017 年第一季度迎来国际收支顺差。更重要的是， 随着人民币逐步贬值的持续，从中国向澳大利 亚的资本流入——虽然流入速度会慢于20132016年期间——至少能够在2017年期间保持 着稳定态势。只要中国经济按目前6-7%的合理 增速保持增长，那么2017年的澳大利亚经济亦 将高枕无忧。同时，请不要忘记我们在亚洲的
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With interest rates currently at
1.5%
Australia is one of the few countries with positive interest rates.
其它贸易伙伴——比如印度尼西亚、印度、马 来西亚和越南——它们今年都实现了强劲的 GDP增长。
ECONOMY IN GOOD SHAPE
In fact, given the improvements in commodity prices and the wealth effect gifted by the long-lasting property boom in Australia, compounded by the lowest interest rates and inflation in history, the Australian economy is in much better shape than most OECD countries. Although exponential growth in private debt continues to be a concern for the future, the smart Australian has been paying off debt quicker by taking advantage of the lowest interest rates in decades, while also saving more for the rainy days ahead. Besides, we are one of the remaining few countries in the world with positive interest rates (1.5 percent), which will be our valuable arsenal when the time comes. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will act if current growth momentum is under threat.
Fuelling growth with debt is toxic to the economy.
For the Australian Dollar (AUD), 2016 was a relatively good year. After touching the low of 0.6825 against the USD in January, the Aussie currency fought back towards 0.7830 brilliantly in February. Throughout the year, the Australian dollar has clearly outperformed the EURO, GBP, JPY and even Gold. The AUD has been resilient in 2016, sailing past little shocks and crises one after the other. In particular the AUD did surprisingly well during the BREXIT upheaval.
经济形势大好 实际上，考虑到商品价格的上涨以及澳大利 亚长期地产繁荣所带来的财富效应，再加上有 史以来最低的利率和通胀率，澳大利亚经济要 比绝大多数经合发组织成员国好过得多。虽然 私人借贷的指数性增长依旧是未来的一个隐患 所在，但聪明的澳大利亚人已在利用近几十年 最低的利率来更快地清偿债务，同时亦在积极 存钱以备不时之需。此外，我们也是全球为数 不多执行正利率（1.5%）的国家之一；情况危 急之时其必将成为我们的法宝。如果当前的增 长势头受到威胁，那么澳大利亚储备银行 （RBA）将会及时做出响应。 对于澳元（AUD）而言，2016年是一个相 对的丰年。在一月份澳元兑美元汇率触底 （0.6825）之后，澳元在二月份迅速收复失 地，回到0.7830。从全年来看，澳元的表现明 显优于欧元、英镑、日元甚至是黄金。澳元今 年顽强地度过了接二连三的冲击和危机，尤其 是在英国退欧期间表现异常出色。
UNCHARTED TERRITORY
To conclude, although the US has ended Quantitative Easing (QE) superficially, more problems than solutions have been created. The global economy has just entered uncharted territory with a debt deflationary spiral on the cards. Looking beyond 2017, a new US president sworn into office may just open another Pandora’s Box of risks and conflicts across the global economic spectrum. Australian investors: be prepared for another wild ride across all assets classes in 2017. For those lucky enough to enjoy the wealth effect of asset price inflation over the past ten years, it is high time to consider adjusting your asset mix or reducing leverage, so you can enjoy more freedom when the next tsunami hits. 商道
未知领域 总而言之，虽然美国表面上停止了量化 宽松，但相较于其所解决的问题而言，量化宽 松带来了更多的问题。全球经济已经步入了一 个未知的领域，债务通缩的螺旋式上升山雨 欲来。 展望2017年，美国新总统的宣誓就职可能将 为全球经济开启了又一个充斥着风险和冲突 的“潘多拉宝盒”。澳大利亚投资者需要为 2017年各类资产的又一次“狂野之旅”做好准 备。对于那些在过去十年间享受到资产价格飞 涨所带来财富效应的幸运儿，是时候考虑调整 您的资产组合或者减少杠杆了，这样您才能在 下一次海啸来袭之前全身而退。
Note: The article represents the author’s opinion only. 注：此文的观点仅代表著者的意见。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 39
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Alibaba chairman Jack Ma greets Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in Hangzhou 40 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
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By Anna Game-Lopata, editor, Higher View Business 《商道》编辑：安娜·格姆罗帕塔
财富之握
GOLDEN HANDSHAKE
Alibaba ANZ Managing Director Maggie Zhou told last year’s Australia China Food and Agriculture Summit the e-commerce giant’s milestone agreement with Austrade will showcase Australian products to Chinese consumers. 阿里巴巴集团澳大利亚新西兰事务部董事总经理周岚（Maggie Zhou）在去 年召开的澳大利亚-中国食品和农业峰会上表示：电子商务巨头阿里巴巴与澳 大利亚贸易投资委员会（Austrade）签署的历史性协议将显著推动澳大利 亚产品在中国消费者当中的推广。
S
igned at the company’s Hangzhou headquarters in September 2016, Alibaba Group and Austrade hailed their milestone collaborative agreement as “the next chapter of trade between China and Australia”. The two-year agreement aims to strengthen trade opportunities by expanding the variety of Australian products sold to some hundreds of millions of Chinese consumers through Alibaba’s e-commerce platforms. Inking the deal last year, Alibaba founder Jack Ma said the agreement will broaden Alibaba’s existing partnership with Austrade by providing dedicated services for Australian products and leveraging digital content to build the Australian “brand” abroad. Ma predicts the next few years will require closer cooperation between the trading partners and asserted the agreement provides a new framework to ensure more businesses, especially Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), can benefit through the partnership
between Austrade and Alibaba. “Together we can all work jointly to support Australian jobs and shape a new future for many people and businesses through the cooperation forged today,” he said at the signing ceremony, also attended by Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. But what will the agreement mean on the ground?
KEY MARKET
Australia is a key market for Alibaba Group, evidenced by its substantial investment in promotions aiming to cultivate successful Australian exporters capitalising on China’s expanding middle class. A joint Australia promotion led by former Australian Trade Minister Andrew Robb and Alibaba Group held in China during Australia Week last year is a case in point. More than 1000 Australian business leaders largely representing startups and SMEs were there in force looking for opportunities. 商道
阿
里巴巴集团于2016年9月份在其杭州总部 与澳大利亚贸易投资委员会签署了一项历 史性的合作协议，从而“翻开了中澳两国贸易往 来新篇章”。 这份为期两年的协议旨在通过阿里巴巴的 电商平台将更多品类的澳大利亚商品卖给数 亿的中国消费者，籍此来创造更多的贸易 机遇。 阿里巴巴创始人马云表示：通过为澳大利亚 商品提供针对性的服务，并利用数字内容在海 外打造澳大利亚“品牌”，该协议将显著深化 阿里巴巴与澳大利亚贸易投资委员会之间的现 有合作关系。 马云认为未来几年内各个贸易伙伴之间将 需要开展更为紧密的合作，并指出本协议将 提供一个全新的框架以确保更多的企业——尤其 是中小企业（SME）可从澳大利亚贸易投资委员 会与阿里巴巴之间建立的合作关系中受益匪浅。 在澳大利亚总理马尔科姆·特恩布尔出席的 签约仪式上，马云表示：“在我们的共同努力 下，澳大利亚将诞生更多的就业机会；今天缔 造的合作也将为许许多多的个人和企业带来全 新的未来。” H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 4 1
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Turnbull and Jack Ma at the signing ceremony at Alibaba headquarters
With Austrade as a partner, the world’s largest online commerce company is well-placed to advance its local presence. “These promotions, which are also part of the agreement, will continue to showcase Australian products to Chinese consumers,” Alibaba ANZ Managing Director Maggie Zhou tells Higher View Business. Zhou also says forums such as the Australia China Food and Agribusiness Summit are important for facilitating connections between Australian businesses looking to engage the Chinese market, and the sharing of information on best practice. At the Summit, Zhou pointed to the launch of Alibaba’s “flagship” online business to consumer wine store on Tmall.com as a further significant example of the company’s 42 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
commitment to the promotion of Australian SMEs through the Austrade agreement. Supported by Wine Australia, the online platform is operated by Vinehoo.com and will initially stock ten brands from eight wine regions. A further 20 brands have been listed since then. Zhou says the platform provides a further avenue for Chinese consumers to purchase Australian wines. “It will also provide a platform to build the profile of Australian wines and regions amongst Chinese consumers,” she says. Vinehoo.com will support the venture, facilitating fulfilment of all orders on the Australian wine flagship store on Tmall. 商道
关键的市场 但是，这个协议实际上又意味着什么呢？ 澳大利亚一直都是阿里巴巴集团看重的一个 关键市场；这体现在阿里巴巴投入重金开展 各种推介和宣传，以期培养可以成功利用中国不 断壮大的中产阶级队伍来获利的澳大利亚出 口商。 去年澳大利亚前贸易部长安德鲁·罗伯与阿里 巴巴集团在北京召开的一场联合澳大利亚推介会 即是一个很好的例子。来自各种初创企业和中小 企业的愈1000位澳大利亚企业主踊跃到会寻找 各种商机。 阿里巴巴集团澳大利亚新西兰事业部董事总经 理周岚向《商道》记者表示：“这些推介会也属 于双方之间所签协议的一部分，旨在将澳大利亚 商品推介给中国的消费者。” 周岚还表示：像澳大利亚-中国食品和农业峰 会这样的论坛有助于深化那些有意进军中国市场 的澳大利亚企业之间的相互联系，帮助它们共享 与各种优质业务做法相关的信息。 在峰会上，周岚还指出：为了兑现基于此项协 议来推介澳大利亚中小企业的承诺，阿里巴巴已 在天猫商城（Tmall.com）上推出了葡萄酒零 售“旗舰店”。 在澳大利亚葡萄酒管理局的鼎力支持之下，这 个由Vinehoo.com运营的在线平台会先上架来 自8个葡萄酒产区的10个品牌，然后再陆续增加 20个品牌。
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37%
At last year’s 11.11 Global Shopping Festival, 37% of buyers purchased from international brands, a preview of the future of retail. 去年双11期间有37% 的买家购买了各大国 际品牌的商品。
NEW OFFICE HERALDS GROWTH
With Alibaba Group’s new Melbourne office due to open early this year, Zhou adds that the group’s local team is primed and set to provide businesses the information and tools they need to advance their international growth. She describes the nuts and bolts of the agreement as a range of collaborative activities Alibaba and Austrade are planning. Alibaba will offer a dedicated helpdesk to source Australian products, and export development programs will be set up and delivered in conjunction with Austrade. “The businesses to be explored by Alibaba and Austrade under the strategic collaboration are wide-ranging,” Zhou says.
“But a key highlight is the launch of an annual ‘Australian Fresh Food Week’ sales promotion and education event on Tmall Fresh, the group‘s fresh food channel, to advance the interests of Australian companies that export dairy, meat, seafood, horticultural products and other fresh produce. “Alibaba Group will also establish a channel on Youku.com, a leading provider of video and streaming services in China with more than 500 million monthly active users, to further promote fresh Australian produce and enhance the perception of Australian products in the eyes of Chinese consumers.”
STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE
The selection of Austrade as a complementary partner means the world’s largest online commerce company is well-placed to advance its local presence. And the group isn’t wasting time, moving fast to connect with and help support Australian exporters. In addition to supporting Australian companies already succeeding in China, a key focus of the partnership will be targeting first-time exporters, particularly SMEs, and facilitating access to Alibaba assistance in commercialising new digital technology and services in China.
周岚表示：这个平台为那些有意购买澳大利亚 葡萄酒的中国消费者提供了又一个选择。 她提到：“这个平台有助于中国消费者深入了 解澳大利亚的葡萄酒和产区。” Vinehoo.com将负责履行消费者通过该澳大 利亚葡萄酒天猫旗舰店所下达的全部订单。 新办事处为企业发展助力 阿里巴巴集团的墨尔本办事处即将于今年年初 成立，而周岚也补充称阿里巴巴集团的优秀团队 将为当地企业的国际化之路提供一切必要的信息 和工具。 她还指出，阿里巴巴与澳大利亚贸易投资委员 会当前所规划的一系列合作活动构成了该协议的 基本要素。 阿里巴巴将设立一个专门的服务部来采购澳大 利亚商品，同时也将与澳大利亚贸易投资委员会 携手制订并实施相关的出口发展计划 。 周岚表示：“阿里巴巴和澳大利亚贸易投资委 员会正在基于此番战略合作寻找和挖掘各种各样 的企业。” “最为突出的亮点当属我们在天猫‘喵鲜生’ 栏目下推出的每年一度的‘澳大利亚新鲜食品 周’促销活动，旨在推介澳大利亚出口商的 乳品、肉类、海鲜、园艺产品以及其它 鲜食。” “阿里巴巴集团也将在拥有逾5亿月活跃用户 的中国知名视频和流媒体服务门户优酷网 （Youku.com）上设立一个专门的栏目来进一 步推介澳大利亚商品，籍此来加强中国消费者对 于澳大利亚 商品的了解。” 战略重要性 选择澳大利亚贸易投资委员会作为与其优势互 补的合作伙伴意味着阿里巴巴这家全球最大的电 子商务企业将显著提升自身在澳大利亚的知名 度。阿里巴巴集团并非在浪费时间；相反，此番 合作有助于阿里巴巴与澳大利亚出口商迅速建立 合作并向后者提供支持。
There are currently
2.7m
Photo VCG / Getty Images
Australian accounts on Alibaba.com, with that number set to grow following the milestone agreement.
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This will boost the profile of Australia among Alibaba’s 434 million consumers. 除了为那些已经在中国大获成功的澳大利亚企 业提供支持之外，此番合作的一个关键侧重点在 于那些新的出口商，尤其是中小企业，同时阿里 巴巴也将为这些企业所推出的全新数字技术和服 务的在华商业化提供有力支持。 周岚解释称：“澳大利亚已成为阿里巴巴 集团两大B 2 C 平台天猫和天猫国际的第五大 出口市场。” “目前这两大B2C平台已有逾1400种澳大利 亚品牌的商品在售。” 周岚还补充道：除了在阿里巴巴两大B 2 C 平台上开展的活动之外，我们的B2B平台 Alibaba.com也拥有超过270万的澳大利亚 帐号。 她谈到：“我们相信本协议将继续推动使用以 上平台的澳大利亚品牌数量和出口商的 增长。”
Alibaba ANZ Managing Director Maggie Zhou
US$17.8 billion
US$17.8bn in sales were made through Alipay on Alibaba’s China and international retail marketplaces during last year’s 11.11 festival. 在阿里巴巴的中国和国际零售商城上收到了消费 者通过支付宝下达的总价值178亿美元的订单。
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“Australia is already the fifth-largest export market on Alibaba Group’s business to consumer (B2C) platforms, Tmall and Tmall Global,” Zhou explains. “The two B2C platforms currently showcase more than 1400 Australian brands selling on these platforms.” Zhou adds that, along with this activity on Alibaba’s B2C sites, there are also more than 2.7 million Australian accounts on the group’s business to business (B2B) platform, Alibaba.com. “We believe this agreement will continue to grow the number of Australian brands and exporters utilising these platforms,” she says. 商道
两全其美 贸易评论员们均认为澳大利亚贸易投资委员会 与阿里巴巴之间的合作有助于更多的中国消费者 极为便利地网购到品类丰富的澳大利亚优质产品 以及新鲜食品。 与此同时，随着“最后一英里”冷藏链物流体 系的完善，进口鲜食在中国境内的在线送货也变 得愈发可行。 周岚表示：“通过本协议当中所列的各项 活动，阿里巴巴集团希望有越来越多的出口商 能够从中国电子商务平台所提供的丰富商机中 受益。” “通过开展各种推介活动，包括推出与澳大利 亚相关的视频内容和产品，本协议也将提升澳大 利亚在阿里巴巴集团4.34亿中国消费者当中的知 名度。”
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BEST OF BOTH WORLDS
Trade commentators agree that Austrade’s collaboration with Alibaba will allow more Chinese consumers to enjoy easy online access to a wider variety of Australia’s premium products and fresh produce. Meanwhile, online delivery of imported fresh food in China is becoming increasingly viable as a result of improvements in last-mile cold chain logistics. “Through the activities outlined in the agreement, Alibaba Group hopes more exporters will be better equipped to pursue business opportunities through Chinese e-commerce platforms,” Zhou says. “The agreement will also boost the profile of Australia among some of Alibaba Group’s 434 million consumers in China through promotional activity, including showcasing of Australia-related video content and products.”
FUTURE OF RETAIL
零售业的未来 在阿里巴巴集团今年11月举办的双11全球狂 欢节期间，澳大利亚再上一个台阶，成为阿里 巴巴集团商品销量排名第四位的国家。 随着越来越多的澳大利亚企业参与其中，并 且在多家本土零售商和品牌突出业绩的带动 下，澳大利亚赶超德国，成为仅次于日本、美 国和韩国的前四大商品热销国家。 在为期24小时的购物节期间，澳大利亚与 新西兰企业（包括销量排在最前列的Chemist Warehouse、真维斯、UGG、Swisse以及 Blackmores等等）在阿里巴巴的中国和国际 零售商城上收到了消费者通过支付宝下达的总 价值1207亿元人民币（相当于178亿美元）的 订单。 阿里巴巴集团首席执行官张勇（Daniel Zhang）表示：去年双11期间有235个国家和 地区的消费者完成了跨境交易，并且有37%的 买家购买了各大国际品牌的商品；双11购物节 展示了未来的零售形态，娱乐、商务、互动实 现无缝对接。 周岚补充称：阿里巴巴集团将致力于帮助 澳大利亚品牌在其电商平台上取得更好的成 绩，而双11全球狂欢节期间澳大利亚商品销量 的激增也将给许多澳大利亚本土企业带来积极 影响。
Photo VCG / Getty Images
Perhaps as a sign of things to come, Australia moved up a rank to become Alibaba Group’s fourth-highest selling country at the company’s 11.11 Global Shopping Festival held in November.
Driven by the increased number of Australian businesses participating, as well as stand-out performances by several local retailers and brands, Australia overtook Germany to place behind only Japan, the United States and South Korea in the top five selling places. At the 24-hour shopping festival, RMB 120.7 billion (USD 17.8 billion) of sales were made through Alipay on Alibaba’s China and international retail marketplaces, with Australian and New Zealand companies like Chemist Warehouse, Jeanswest, UGG, Swisse and Blackmores leading the way. Alibaba Group CEO Daniel Zhang says last year’s 11.11, which saw 235 countries and regions complete cross-border transactions and 37 per cent of buyers purchasing from international brands, is a preview of the future of retail, where entertainment, commerce and interactive engagement intersect seamlessly. Maggie Zhou adds the group is determined to see Australia perform better on its platforms and that the significant increase seen in the country’s sales volumes at the 11.11 festival will have a positive impact on many local businesses.
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By Lisa Goodhand, Sydney-based business China Blueprint offers expert advice on trade between Australia and China 作者：丽莎·高德翰，她在悉尼设立的China Blueprint公司 致力于为澳中两国之间的贸易活动提供专家意见。
电子商务大爆炸
E-COMMERCE EXPLOSION
China’s e-commerce industry has undergone drastic change in the last few years, thanks to the emergence of digital disruptors like WeChat. Trade expert Lisa Goodhand examines the changes and the way business can benefit in the future. 中国的电子商务行业在过去几年里经历了巨大变化，这得益于微信等数字颠覆 者的出现。 贸易专家丽莎·高德翰（Lisa Goodhand）分析了企业未来可能受 益的变化和方式。
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Y
ou only have a couple of minutes spare, so how do you book a restaurant for dinner, make an appointment to see a doctor, invest in your favourite stock market shares, check the latest fashions on the Paris runway and message a friend? Easy. The answer is quite literally in the palm of your hand. Enter WeChat, the so-called “super-app” for mobile phones that has taken China by storm, transforming the way people socialise, shop and connect. Devotees insist that it’s the very best of WhatsApp, Facebook, Skype, Uber, Instagram and much more, all rolled into one. The services offered by the one-stop WeChat app are almost endless.
DIGITAL WALLET
But perhaps WeChat’s most impressive feature is a digital wallet. You don’t need to carry cash anymore, or credit cards for that matter. Spending, these days, requires little more than the swipe of a finger. And should you decide to buy the oldfashioned way – by visiting a shopping centre – don’t forget to consult the WeChat heat map, which will tell you how crowded the shops are. It’s the quirky little extras like this that have made the app so popular with users. Consumers have embraced WeChat into every part of daily life. It’s estimated the app
过
700 million It’s estimated WeChat has more than 700 million monthly active users, mostly in China. 微信已经渗透到消费者月活跃用户 数量已超过7亿。
has more than 700 million monthly active users. While the majority of those users are in China, the app is said to be nearing domestic saturation point and its creators are pushing to gain real traction in foreign markets too. In Sydney, 7800 kilometres from Shanghai, Chinese Australians are already using WeChat to stay in contact with friends and family back home. The app is also finding its way into the wider community. All of this is great for consumers but how is business coping with the WeChat juggernaut? It’s the extraordinarily rapid rate of change that is seeing the market scramble to play catch-up.
去的几年里，得益于微信等数码时代颠覆 者的问世，中国的电子商务产业经历了翻 天覆地的巨变。贸易专家Lisa Goodhand对这 些变化以及未来企业可以从中受益的途径进行了 深入研究。 忙里偷闲几分钟的你，该如何预订餐厅、预约 医生、投资您最钟情的股票、了解巴黎T台上的 最新时尚，以及给一位朋友发送消息？ 小菜一碟，答案就在您的掌中！ 您只需轻点微信这个席卷中国、彻底改善 中国人社交、购物以及联络方式的“超级APP” 即可。 拥趸们认为微信集WhatsApp、Facebook、 Skype、Uber、Instagram以及更多APP的 大成于一身；其所提供的一站式服务项目几乎 无所不及。
数字钱包 不过，微信最令人津津乐道的功能当属它的数 字钱包。您已不需要随身携带现金或信用卡，只 需要轻点手机屏幕即可完成支付。 如果您打算以传统的方式来购物——比如去购 物中心血拼——那么切记打开微信的热力图功能 了解一下各个购物中心的拥挤程度。正是这些小 而精的附加功能让微信变得倍受用户的喜爱。 微信已经渗透到消费者日常生活当中的方方面 面；其月活跃用户数量已超过7亿。虽然绝大部 分用户都位于中国，但该款APP据称已达到国内 用户数量的饱和点，因此腾讯公司也正在努力进 军各大国外市场。 在距离上海7800公里的悉尼，澳大利亚华人 已经习惯于使用微信与国内的朋友和亲属进行联 络。这款APP也正在摸索如何获得华人圈之外的 更多用户。 对于消费者而言，微信的一切都很棒，但企业 应当如何利用微信的巨大影响力呢？ 在这种迅雷不及掩耳的转变背后，APP市场也 见证了你追我赶的“峥嵘岁月”。 摧枯拉朽 腾讯于2011年推出微信的初衷是打造一款流 行的短消息APP，如今它已成为处理生活琐事所 不可或缺的一款APP——从订餐、发布照片、医 院预约、购买电影票到联络亲友等等不一而足。 这个转变仅仅花了五年时间。如果时间再往回 倒退几年的话，如此快速的转变简直会让您瞠目 结舌。 我早在80年代中期就去过中国。当时购物几无 可能，外国人只能使用外汇券（FEC）来购买商 品。购物去处也仅限于价格高昂的友谊商店，而 即便是友谊商店也没有太多的商品可供挑选。 因为忙于其它更有意义的事情——比如学习中 文和太极拳——时光就这样在不经意间飞逝而去。 那是一段美好的岁月！
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It’s the very best of WhatsApp, Facebook, Skype, Uber and much more, rolled into one. TOTAL DISRUPTION
TenCent launched WeChat in 2011 as an SMS (short message service) app. Today, it’s China’s go-to app for just about everything, from ordering food, posting photos, booking a hospital admission and buying cinema tickets to connecting with friends and family and much more. All of that in just five years. And if you go back a little further, the rapid rate of change seems even more mind-boggling. My adventures in China started back in the mid-80s when shopping was practically impossible, with foreigners only permitted to make purchases using Foreign Exchange Currency (FEC). The shopping experience was limited to spending in the pricey Friendship Store, and even there the choices were not great. Time was passed considering other more meaningful pursuits, such as learning Chinese and tai chi. Ah, the good old days. A few years and a 360-degree head spin later, changes in the way Chinese consumers research a vast range of products and services and buy them has turned the entire market upside-down. WeChat is changing the way small and medium-sized businesses attract new customers: lots of new customers, and quickly. And that’s got big business worried. 48 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
It’s a total game changer. The industry term is digital disruptor – apps that in a very short time can force established businesses to completely change the way they operate.
NO MORE NEED FOR BANKS?
E-commerce basically gives everyone an opportunity to become an instant online store and you don’t even need a bank account to do it. All you need to do is register with the likes of WeChat and e-commerce is a few quick clicks away. Cash or card? Forget it, all you need is a phone. If you don’t have that nifty little mobile phone app they call Didi Chuxing, good luck catching a cab in Shanghai, never mind trying to pay for it. With Didi Chuxing, passengers can hire a taxi, private car or designated driver via smartphone. It services 300 million users across 400 Chinese cities, and in August 2016 it was announced that rival Uber had agreed to sell its China operations to Didi. Analysts speculated that it was Didi’s use of WeChat that gave it the commercial edge it needed. Such is the power of these types of apps in business. Financial institutions are nervous too. Consider this: 236 million people are outside the banking system in China already, meaning 商道
数年之后，中国消费者研究与购买各种商品和 服务的方式已发生了巨大的转变，从而带动了市 场的惊天巨变。 微信正在改变中小企业吸引新消费者的方 式——数量之大以及速度之快已开始让大企业们 忧心不已。 微信完完全全地改变了游戏规则。在业内被 称之为“数字颠覆者”的微信可以在很短的时间 内迫使那些资深企业彻彻底底地改变它们的经营 之道。 不再需要银行了？ 在线电子商务基本上让所有人都有机会随时随 地开设一家在线店铺——您甚至不需要拥有一个 银行帐户。 您唯一要做的就是注册微信这样的APP。几番 点击之后，电子商务即已大功告成！ 带上现金还是银行卡？别再老土了，您只要带 上手机就行了。如果您没有一款名为“滴滴出行” 的APP，那么在上海打车就要看您的造化了，更 甭提支付打车费了。 “滴滴出行”APP在手，乘客即可通过手机呼叫 的士、私家车或者专车。这款APP的用户数量已 达到3亿，遍布中国400多个城市；2016年8月， 优步宣布其已同意将中国业务出售给滴滴。分析 师推测滴滴与微信的整合令其获得了额外的商业 优势；这也充分映证了此类APP在商战当中的巨 大影响力。 各大金融机构也是如履薄冰。您要知道中国有 2.36亿人游离在银行体系之外，也就是说他们没 有任何银行账户；他们当中有92%的人拥有一部 手机，因此不需要借助银行即可通过电商渠道购 买商品。这是否将成为未来的业态？无怪乎各大 银行都在迅速采取应对之策。
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they do not have a bank account. Of these, 92 per cent have a mobile phone account and therefore access to e-commerce purchases without the need for a bank. Is this the future of business? It’s no wonder the banks are moving quickly.
This will make China not only the world’s largest e-commerce community, beating the USA, but it will be well on the way to becoming the largest M-Commerce community by 2018 (McKinsey).
CASH IS DEAD
用户每年的支出将会 WeChat is not only a fun app to hang out on and 超过6000亿美元。 catch up with friends and family, it is also a powerful tool for businesses to help capture and engage their audience. It provides a turnkey solution, called the business ecosystem, that can literally capture all elements of your business from marketing 现金已亡 and customer fulfilment to e-commerce. 微信正在颠覆已然是举步维艰的市场和金融 WeChat’s e-commerce function became 服务业，更别提那些不知道该走哪一条路的监管 popular when it tapped into China’s 者了。 annual New Year festival, creating the 现金已亡；在21世纪的中国，人际沟通已经离 M-Commerce Hong Bao – or red packets. 不开手机了。不信您去问问腾讯。 Not only could WeChat users send Hong 对于消费者而言，微信提供了集上网、社交和 Bao containing credit to their friends and 电商功能于一身的一站式全能解决方案。 relatives, a common practice in Chinese 微信正在帮助他们以安全而便利的方式购物。 culture, but they could also select a “distribute 实际上，微信的同类及其竞争对手均已发明了它 randomly” option. 们自己的经济术语——“移动电子商务 This appealed to Chinese people on so （M-Commerce）”。 many cultural levels, it’s no wonder it was 一些分析师预测：在不久的将来，微信和移动 well received and boosted WeChat Commerce 电子商务必将取代基于PC的电子商务体系。 right up the pole for top position. 这个趋势不仅将令中国击败美国成为全球最大 的电子商务市场，同时中国也将在2018年前成为 全球最大的移动电子商务市场（麦肯锡）。
Quite simply, WeChat is causing disruption to an already challenging market and financial services sector, not to mention the regulators who don’t even know which way to look. Cash is dead and people can no longer communicate without their mobile phones in 21st century modern China. Just ask Tencent. For consumers, WeChat offers a one-stop, fix-all solution to online web surfing, social media and e-commerce. It’s helping them make purchases in a safe and convenient manner. In fact the likes of WeChat and its competitors have spawned their own economic buzz word. “M-Commerce” is the new short-hand description for mobile commerce. Some analysts predict that WeChat and mobile e-commerce in general is set to supersede PC e-commerce in the not so distant future.
WECHAT HELPS BRANDS GROW
$600bn China’s projected annual e-commerce spend by 2020. 到2020年之时，中国网购
微信助力品牌发展 微信不仅是一款出门必备、联络亲友的有用软 件，同时也是企业招揽消费者并与之进行互动的 强大工具。 微信提供了一项名为“企业生态系统”一站式 解决方案，集企业所需的一切功能特性于一 身——从营销、客户服务到电子商务。 微信精确瞄准中国的春节，推出了“红包” 功能，令其电子商务功能风头一时无两。微信用 户不仅可以向亲友发送红包（这也是中国的一项 传统文化），同时也可以选择随机金额分发的 选项。 这个功能吸引了不同文化层次的中国人，并且 大受欢迎，把微信推高到一个难以撼动的位置。 大企业也在加紧追赶的步伐 例如巴宝莉（Burberry）就将中国粉丝们带到 伦敦的T台，在那里倾听创作团队以及名流亲口 道来的最新提示和情报。酒店也使用微信虚拟会 员卡来提供各处优惠（比如仅限会员的价格和优 惠），而各大品牌（比如欧莱雅）也使用微信来 收罗与顾客喜好相关的市场情报，尤其是在推出 新色系和新产品之时。 50 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
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Photo VCG / Getty Images
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BIG BUSINESS IS CATCHING ON FAST TOO
Burberry, for example, takes Chinese fans to their London catwalks, where they can hear the latest tips and updates from the creative team and celebrities. Hotels use WeChat virtual membership cards to provide benefits, from membership rates to member-only deals, and brands such as L’Oréal use it to seek valuable market intelligence about their customers’ likes and preferences, especially when it comes to a new colour range or product.
BUT WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR AUSTRALIA?
Is WeChat – or M-Commerce for that matter – likely to benefit Australian business in the future? The simple answer is yes, and both are already available in Australia, although merchant uptake is not quite as speedy as it has been in China. Perhaps fraught with fewer issues of fake currency, and the fact that Australian consumers have a much higher propensity
towards spending money they don’t have in the bank in the form of credit, could be part of the reason. Recent history has also shown that Australia is slower than other parts of the world to adopt new technology. But once it takes hold locally, Australian businesses will be able to target Chinese shoppers directly. WeChat and Alipay may have paved the way, but the next generation of payment platform systems, like Dinpay, have already hit Australian shores. Dinpay offers not only access to 19 different banks in China, but also WeChat, Alipay and Unionpay, giving it much broader appeal.
CHINESE SPENDING LEADS THE WAY
Chinese shoppers in Australian stores and online will be able to transact in the way they are accustomed to back home using RMB, their own currency. In technical terms, Dinpay can be plugged into an e-commerce website or produce QR codes on an iPad or mobile phone that allows Chinese customers to simply scan to pay. 商道
微信对于澳大利亚而言又意味着什么呢？ 未来澳大利亚企业是否有可能从微信或移动电 子商务中受益？ 是的，二者均已进入澳大利亚市场，只不过商 家们接纳它们的速度并不像中国那样快。 造成这种情况的部分原因或许在于商家对假币 等少数问题的顾虑，以及澳大利亚消费者更倾向 于使用信用卡进行透支消费的习惯。 从近几年的情况来看，澳大利亚在新技术应用 方面要慢于其它国家。但是，一旦微信等APP在 澳大利亚站稳脚跟，澳大利亚企业即可直接与中 国消费者进行互动。 微信和支付宝或许已经铺好了入澳之路，但诸 如智付（Dinpay）这样的下一代支付平台早已 兵临澳大利亚的城下。 智付不仅支持中国19家银行的借记卡，同时也 支持微信、支付宝和银联，更具吸引力。 大手笔的中国消费者 在澳大利亚线下和线上购物的中国消费者 将可以使用人民币按他们在国内所习惯的方式完 成支付。 从技术角度来看，智付可以嵌入到一家电子商 务网站上，或者在iPad或手机上生成一个二维 码，这样中国顾客只需扫码即可完成支付。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 51
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Is this the future of business? It’s no wonder the banks are moving quickly. Dinpay is also said to be on the verge of releasing its own terminal that provides options for a range of payment methods, as well as producing a QR code for scanning and a transaction that takes place in real time. Until now, payment options have been limited to a single provider like Union Pay or Alipay, for example. But Dinpay offers all of the most popular options in one. Without major expense, Australian retailers can integrate this application and start trading with China from their own businesses, without the need to use a third-party e-commerce platform. And the setup is fast – as little as two weeks.
OPENING THE DOORS
Where it’s most likely to be of value is in opening up Australian e-commerce websites to international consumers in China, who love shopping online. 52 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
It will also be a major drawcard for Australian restaurants, tourist destinations and retail outlets, who receive regular foot traffic from Chinese customers. By making payments easy, quick, safe and accessible to customers who only have RMB, they will fast gain the edge over their competitors. The new technology is a revolution for Australian business. China has more than 500 million e-commerce shoppers who are expected to splurge $600 billion annually by 2020. The future of business is changing. We are destined to become a cashless society and China is leading the way. It only makes sense for Australian businesses to point their websites and cash machines in the direction of the world’s largest e-commerce society. We finally have all the tools to really make it happen. And the rewards of tapping into a whole new customer base that numbers in the hundreds of millions? Well, the sky’s the limit. 商道
智付据称即将推出自己的终端；该终端可以支 持多种支付方式，并可生成二维码；所有交易均 可实时完成。 到目前为止，各种支付方案均仅限于单一支付 服务提供商（比如银联或支付宝），而智付则集 所有流行支付方案于一身。 在不会产生重大支出的情况下，澳大利亚零售 商可以整合这款应用，然后直接与中国消费者进 行交易，无需借助任何第三方电子商务平台。安 装过程十分简单，不到两周即可办妥。 打开市场之门 或许，智付最大的价值在于热衷网购中国消费 者届时将可以自由使用澳大利亚的各大电子商务 门户了。 对于中国顾客经常光顾的澳大利亚餐厅、旅游 目的地和零售店而言，它也是一项重要的卖点。 通过让那些只使用人民币的消费者更便利、更快 速、更安全地完成支付，它们将能先于竞争对手 占得商机。 这项新技术对于澳大利亚企业而言堪称重大利 好。到2020年之时，中国逾5亿网购用户每年的 支出将会超过6000亿美元。 商业的未来千变万化。我们必将迎来一个无现 金的时代，而中国正在引领着这个潮流。澳大利 亚企业的网站和收银机理当瞄准中国这个全球首 屈一指的电子商务市场。 我们终于拥有了让一切变为可能的所有工具。 那么，进军这个拥有数亿消费者的全新市场将能 带来多大的回报呢？答案是：无可限量！
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中国机器人产业的无限商机
HIGH PRECISION The nascent robotics industry is booming in China. More than a year ago, China’s State Council unveiled a national plan, “Made in China 2025”, which seeks to upgrade China’s manufacturing base. The ultimate goal is to transform China into the leading global manufacturing power by 2049. Robotics has a specific role in these initiatives. In China, the plan is to accelerate the industry with breakthrough products in 2016-20. Sceptics argue that the emergent business is sustained mainly by subsidies doled out by local governments. The reality may prove different, however.
DRAMATIC EXPANSION OF ROBOTICS IN CHINA
China’s robotics boom is often explained by rising costs and ageing demographics. Yet the latter are only part of the big picture. On the mainland, the robotics boom has been fuelled by several forces, including demographics (growing engineering talent, declining factory-age labour, ageing work force), increasing costs (rising wages, costs of training and housing), and favourable financing (low-cost loans, factory incentives, investment by foreign tech manufacturers in China, such as Foxconn and Apple). The boom in China has also been driven by government policies (central government encouragement, local government mandates, tax credits), rising quality requirements (ramp-up of auto makers for export), and the early adopters (emerging middle class with disposable income, more capital-intensive companies). Due to its huge population, China has a long way to go. The density of robots is still relatively low – about 36 per 10,000 manufacturing workers – relative to current robotics leaders, such as Germany (292), Japan (314) and South
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By Dan Steinbock
Korea (478). However, Chinese robotics has the potential to grow five to ten times in the medium term. Not so long ago, the robotics markets were in Japan, the US, Germany, South Korea and China, with a combined share of 70 per cent. By 2014, robotics sales soared on the mainland, which became the largest market of industrial robots with about a quarter of the global market share. Yet sales remained dominated by foreign giants, such as the Swedish-Swiss ABB, the Japanese FANUC and Yasukawa Electric, as well as the German KUKA. However, times are also changing in the production arena. Last year, Japan still dominated the manufacturing of industrial robots, with some 60 per cent of the global total. But by the end of the current year, China hopes to overtake Japan, as Chinese robotics pioneers – including Shenyang SIASUN and Ningbo Techmation’s subsidiary E-Deodar – have proven their capacity to scale up fast. China seeks to triple the annual production of robots in manufacturing to 100,000 in five years, and sell more than $4.6 billion worth of service robots by 2020, thanks to surging demand in healthcare, education and entertainment. In addition to industrial robotics, service robotics hold great potential, including almost 50 mainly new Chinese companies, such as Shenzhen DJI Innovations . Critics say subsidies will contribute to the rise of inefficient robotics companies. The argument is not invalid but misses the point. If China did not try to scale up its industrial capacity in promising emerging industries, it would remain just a buyer dominated by foreign companies. That was the case in mobile networks and smartphones until the rise of Chinese pioneers, from Lenovo and Huawei to Xiaomi.
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AUSTRALIA AND ROBOTICS OPPORTUNITIES
Unlike other major advanced economies, Australia enjoys a great geopolitical advantage. It is located in the world’s most dynamic region. Before the crisis, the economy grew for 17 consecutive years. Like many commodity producers, Australia benefited greatly from the boom years of China’s industrialisation. The mainland’s 2009 stimulus package sustained demand for commodities after the global crisis. In the past few years, the "commodity super-cycle" has eclipsed. That, in turn, has sparked an intense and occasionally sharp debate about China’s rise, Australia’s future and bilateral relations. However, all advanced economies have enjoyed very rapid growth rates amid industrialisation; but thereafter growth has decelerated in each. China is no exception. But it also has a purposeful strategy to rebalance the economy and move from investment and net exports towards consumption and innovation. So while Australia may continue to benefit from Chinese industrialisation and urbanisation in the third and fourth tier cities, which are still building their infrastructure, it could take greater advantage of emerging industries in China and Chinese outward foreign investment. The 2015 China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) opened new business opportunities for the two countries. Robotics is a textbook example. According to industry data, worldwide sales of industrial robots soared to 254,000 units in 2015. More than 60 per cent were sold in Asia – almost half of these units in China, and another half in the rest of Asia and Australia. In professional service robots, sales value rose to $4.6 billion; in personal service robots to $2.2 billion. These two segments remain dominated
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Chinese companies recently began acquisitions in industrial and service robotics
by European and North American producers (80 per cent), as against Asia (20 per cent). In the US, large-scale capital markets favour agile start-ups, whereas in Europe more rigid labour markets and bank financing tend to rely on corporate innovation and M&A activities. In China, start-ups, venture capital, even corporate giants are relatively new, though growing rapidly, and banks fuel the system. As a result, the fastest way to enter a new and promising industry, such as robotics, is rapid internal ramp-up, corporate innovation or foreign M&As.
ONE FUTURE PATH
Recently, Chinese companies began acquisitions in both industrial and service robotics, which heralds efforts at consolidation, as evidenced by the acquisition of the Michiganbased Paslin by Wanfeng Technology, SIASUN’s planned acquisitions, and Chinese venture funds’ investments in robotic ventures in Russia, Israel and Silicon Valley. However, one major path to the future is heralded by last summer’s acquisition of
Chinese robotics has the potential to grow five to ten times in the medium term. KUKA by Midea Group. KUKA is a German manufacturer of industrial robots, which originates from an Augsburg company that launched its own industrial robot in 1973. It employed 12,000 workers and earned almost EUR 3 billion in revenue last year. Midea is a major Chinese electrical appliance manufacturer, which morphed into manufacturing relatively early and is today a leading Chinese company with $22 billion in revenues and 135,000 employees. Like Australia, many European companies remain uneasy about such acquisitions and with Chinese firms in particular. In the postwar era, advanced economies have traded and invested mainly with and in each other. That world,
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however, is gone. Emerging economies began to drive global growth prospects before the global crisis. Moreover, Midea and KUKA negotiated a deal that provided the former assurances that jobs and plants in Germany will remain protected until 2023. Midea also agreed not to pursue a domination agreement or de-list KUKA’s shares. The goal is to build a factory to produce 7000 robots annually and ramp up that capacity to 17,000 by 2025. In Germany and Europe, the acquisition reflected the new wave of Chinese M&As. In China, the purchase of one of the Big-4 global robot manufacturers allowed Midea to broaden its mission and diversify, while raising China’s clout in the industry.
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.254 millio3n
Worldwide sales of industrial robots soared to 254,000 units in 2015. 2015年工业机器人的 全球销量猛增至 254,000台。
BENEFITS FROM BALANCING
Despite some excesses in recent debates about Australian-Chinese bilateral relations, over time Australia is likely to hedge between the US strategic opportunities, as long as the latter can ensure stability in the region, and the Chinese economic gains, which are needed for economic growth. As I have argued for almost a decade, from the Australian perspective, the bilateral interests with the US are converging in security matters, but diverging in trade and investment. It is this duality of interests that will fuel Australia’s growth in the future. It is often said that geopolitics is destiny. But it can be an opportunity as well.
56 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
国新生的机器人产业正冉冉崛起。一年 前，中国国务院颁布了一项名为“中国制 造2025”的宏伟计划，旨在实现制造业的升 级，其终极目标是在2049年前使中国转变成一 个堪称全球翘楚的制造大国。 机器人在中国推出的一系列倡议中扮演着一 个特殊角色。中国计划在2016至2020年期间利 用一些开创性的产品来推动工业的发展。一些 持怀疑看法的人士认为这项迫切的计划只能通 过地方政府提供的各类补贴来推动。但实际情 况并非如此。 中国机器人产业的急剧扩张 中国机器人产业的繁荣通常被认为是人工成 本上升以及人口老龄化所致。但是，后一种观 点实属井底之见。在中国大陆，机器人产业的 繁 荣 受 到 了诸多因素的推动，包括人口因素 （工程人才的增长，工作年龄人口的缩减，劳 动 力 的 老 龄化）、成本上升（持续增长的工 资 、 培 训 和住房成本）以及宽松的融资环境 （低成本的贷款、工厂奖励、外国科技企业在 华的投资，比如富士康和苹果）。 这种繁荣也受到了政府政策（中央政府鼓 励、地方政府授意、税收减免优惠）、日益提 高 的 质 量 要求（汽车制造商为推动出口而加 码）以及早期实践者（可支配收入较高的新兴 中产阶段、资本密集型的企业等等）的推动。 考虑到庞大的人口基数，中国还有相当长的 一 段 路 要 走。相对于其它机器人应用大国，
商道
中国的机器人应用密度依旧在低位徘徊，平均 每10,000名制造工人仅拥有36台机器人，而德 国、日本和韩国则分别达到了292台、314台以 及478台。但是，从中期来看，中国的机器人产 业有望迎来5-10倍的惊人增长。 仅在不久之前，日本、美国、德国、韩国和 中国的机器人市场一并占据了70%的市场份 额。到了2014年，中国大陆的机器人销售开始 风生水起，中国更成为了工业机器人最大的市 场，并占去全球四分之一的市场份额。但是， 这块市场目前仍在外国巨头的掌控之中，比如 瑞典瑞士合资的ABB、日本的发那科和安川电 机，以及德国的KUKA。 不过，俗话说风水轮流转。仅在去年，日本 还是全球工业机器人的制造大国，全球约60% 的工业机器人都源自于日本；但到今年结束之 前，中国很有可能赶超日本，因为中国多家机 器人制造业的领头羊（包括沈阳新松、宁波弘 讯科技旗下的伊雪松等等）均表示其产能正在 快速增长之中。 中国计划在五年之内将工业机器人的年产量 提升至10万台，并且得益于医疗、教育和娱乐 产业争先涌现的需求，中国也计划在2020年前 实现服务机器人销售收入超46亿美元的目标。 除了工业机器人之外，服务机器人也具有巨大 的市场潜力，并且中国已有近50家新企业投身 其中，比如深圳的大疆创新。 批评人士认为政府提供的补贴将导致低效机 器人制造企业的增多。这个观点片并非失察，
VIEWPOINT
观点
也提示了一条重要的未来发展之道。KUKA是一 家德国工业机器人生产商；其前身 是 一 家 于 1973年制造出自用工业机器人的企业（位于奥 格斯堡）。目前该公司拥有1.2万名员工，去年 的收入达到了近30亿欧元。 美的是一家知名的中国电器制造商。其进 军制造业的时间相对较早，如今已是一家年收 入达220亿美元、拥有13.5万名员工的知名中国 企业。 和澳大利亚一样，许多欧洲企业对于此种收 购深感忧虑，尤其是对中国企业持怀疑态度。 在二战结束之后，发达经济体多在自己的小圈 子里开展相互贸易和投资。但是，时局已经悄 然生变。在全球金融危机爆发之前，新兴经济 体就已开始引领全球的经济增长。 此外，根据两家公司所达成的交易，美的向 KUKU承诺其将在2023年之前保留后者在德国境 内设立的就业岗位和工厂。此番收购的目标是 打造一家能够年产7000台机器人的工厂，并在 2025年前将产能提升至17000台。 在德国与欧洲，此次收购代表了新一轮的中 国企业并购热潮。在中国，通过收购全球四大 机器人制造商的其中之一，美的将可进一步拓 展其业务目标并迈上多元化发展之路，同时也 可提升中国在机器人产业当中的影响力。 只是没有抓住要点。如果中国不尽力去扩大那 些前景看好的新兴产业的产能，那么中国最终 只会沦为被外国企业掣肘的机器人买方。移动 网络和智能手机产业的情况正是如此，直到联 想、华为和小米等先驱企业的崛起之后局面才 有改观。 中国的再平衡、澳大利亚和机器人产业商机 与其它主要发达经济体不同，澳大利亚拥有 巨大的地缘政治优势。它位于全球最活跃的地 区。在全球金融危机爆发之前，澳大利亚实现 了连续17年的经济增长。和许多商品生产大国 一样，澳大利亚从中国连年的工业化浪潮当中 受益匪浅。中国大陆2009年在全球金融危机爆 发之后推出的一揽子经济刺激计划有力保障了 对各种商品的需求。 过去的几年里，“大宗商品超级周期”光环 渐褪，并进而引发了与中国之崛起、澳大利亚 前景以及双边关系相关的热烈讨论，偶尔这类 争论还可谓尖锐。不过，所有发达经济体均在 工业化进程中取得了飞速的增长，但都在工业 化完成之后遇到了经济增速下滑的问题。中国 也不例外。但中国已有一个目标明确的战略， 用于实现经济再平衡并向消费与创新转型。 所以，虽然澳大利亚可以继续从中国三线和 四线城市的工业化和城市化中受益（这些城市 仍在兴建各种基础设施），但澳大利亚更应该 充分利用中国的各种新兴产业以及中国的对外 投资热潮。2015年签署的《中澳自由贸易协
定》为两个国家开创了广阔的全新商机，而机 器人产业正是典型范例之一。 产业数据显示，2015年工业机器人的全球销 量猛增至254,000台，逾60%的工业机器被售往 亚洲市场，其中近一半被售往中国市场，另一 半则售往亚洲其它市场以及澳大利亚市场。专 业服务机器人的销售额上升至46亿美元，而个 人服务机器人的销售额也达到了22亿美元。这 两大市场依然是欧洲和北美机器人制造商的天 下（80%）；亚洲的机器人制造商仅分到了20% 的市场份额。 在美国，大规模资本市场偏爱那些灵活的初 创公司，而在欧洲，更严谨的劳动力市场和银 行投资往往看重企业的创新和并购活动。在中 国，虽然发展势头较为迅猛，但初创公司、风 险资本甚至企业巨头都是相对较新的概念，而 银行则负责为这个体系注入强劲动力。因此， 欲进军一个前景看好的新产业（比如机器人产 业），最快的办法是内部快速提升、企业创新 或者国外并购。 未来之路 近年来，中国企业纷纷踏上了对工业和服务 机器人制造商的并购之路，充分彰显出中国企 业一统天下的壮志，比如万丰科技对密歇根派 司令公司（Paslin）的收购、新松公司新近宣布 的一系列收购计划，以及中国风投基金对俄罗 斯、以色列和硅谷等机器人制造商的投资。 但是，去年夏天美的集团对KUKA公司的收购
商道
从平衡中获益 近年来，尽管与澳中双边关系的讨论不绝于 耳，但随着时间的推移，澳大利亚很有可能需 要在美国战略机遇（只要美国可以确保亚太地 区的稳定）与其经济发展所需的中国经济成果 之间保持着一定的平衡。 正如我在过去十年所反复强调的，从澳大利 亚的角度来看，其与美国在安全事务方面的利 益不断融合，但在贸易和投资方面利益却分道 扬镳。正是这种利益上的二元性将助力澳大利 亚的未来增长。 虽说地缘政治决定了一个国家的命运，但它 也能为一个国家带来机遇。
Dr Dan Steinbock is the founder of the Difference Group and has served as the research director at the India, China, and America Institute (USA) and a visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). for more information, see http://www.differencegroup.net/ 斯丁巴克博士是Difference Group的创始人， 并是印度、中国和美国研究所（美国）的研究主任以 及上海国际问题研究院（中国）和欧盟中心（新加 坡）客座研究员。欲知详情，请访问： http://www.differencegroup.net/
H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 57
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By Mono Ganguli, Executive Director, Global Markets, Commonwealth Bank of Australia 作者：莫诺·甘谷里，澳大利亚联邦银行全球市场事 业部执行总裁
跨境商务
CROSS-BORDER BUSINESS
The Commonwealth Bank has recently released “The Renminbi”, a practical introduction to cross-border trade and investment with China. Executive Director, Global Markets’ Mono Ganguli, describes how the rise of the RMB as a global currency will be a game-changer for Australia. 澳大利亚联邦银行近期发布了一篇题为“人民币”的中国跨境贸易与投资指南， 其中全球市场事业部执行总裁Mono Ganguli向读者介绍了人民币的崛起将如何改 变投资与贸易的游戏规则。
A
fter decades of growth and trade liberalisation, the next chapter in China’s growth story involves a profound economic transition from investment-led gross domestic product (GDP) growth to consumption-led GDP growth. Consumption and service industries now play a more important role in driving China’s GDP growth than investment and exports. Recently the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA), which came into effect in late 2015 after ten years of negotiations, has had a significant impact on Australia’s service sector and fits neatly in the economic transition of both countries. From the RMB trade settlement scheme that liberalised RMB in international trade settlement, to the advancements made in the offshore market, China has announced reforms to promote its currency and capital market on the international stage in a cautiously managed manner. Put simply, traders of goods and services are now able to settle their invoice in RMB almost as freely as any other currency, reducing the foreign exchange related costs and risks for both parties. 58 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
Apart from trade settlement, RMB for cross-border investment has also made its mark. While capital accounts are still relatively restricted, we have seen the trend of authorities delegating powers from state level to provincial level regulators. Add to that the shift of approval-based to a registration-based regime, which greatly simplifies the process for both inbound and outbound investors. Combining a simplified process, improved market access and an abundance of investment channels to select from, we have witnessed the rise of China and RMB in cross-border investment, overtaking the US as top destination for foreign direct investment in 2015.
2015 The year China overtook the US as top destination for foreign direct investment. 中国赶超美国成为2015年 首屈一指的外国直接 投资目的地。
商道
在
数十年的增长与贸易自由化之后，中国 经济发展之路的下一个篇章将与从投资 主导向消费主导的GDP增长转型有关。如今， 相较于投资和出口而言，消费与服务业将在推 动中国的GDP增长过程中扮演着更为重要的角 色。在历经十载的谈判之后，《中澳自由贸易 协定》已于2015年末生效，给澳大利亚的服务 业带来了深远影响，同时也刚好契合两国的经 济转型所需。 从推动人民币国际化的人民币贸易结算机 制，到其在海外市场领域所取得的诸多进展， 中国推出了一系列的改革举措并以一种谨慎有 序的方式将其货币和资本市场推上了国际舞 台。简而言之，现在商品和服务贸易商们可以 像使用任何其它货币一样使用人民币进行自由 结算，从而减少买卖双方之间的汇兑成本与风 险。 除了贸易结算之外，人民币跨境投资也让人 刮目相看。虽然资本项目数量依然相对有限， 但我们已注意到中国一些国家级部委正在将各 项权力下放给省级主管部门。除此之外，从审 批制到登记制的转变也大大简化了入境与出境 投资者的办事流程。程序的简化、市场准入的 改善以及充裕的投资渠道让我们见证了中国 和人民币在跨境投资领域的崛起，帮助其 赶超美国成为2015年首屈一指的外国直接投资 目的地。
INDUSTRY
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Those companies that have already recognised the opportunities have the "first-mover" advantage. This does not mean other companies that have taken a more cautious approach will not benefit – the sheer size of the market in China means that the full potential is far from being tapped. The cross-border RMB settlement scheme allows eligible counterparties to settle trade and service-related transactions in RMB. There are two key features: firstly, all receipts and payments of RMB in and out of China, including buying and selling the currency, are permitted, providing there is a valid purpose for payment and supporting documentation. This might include goods and service trade and direct investment. Secondly, offshore participants can choose between the onshore CNY and offshore CNH exchange rates when converting the proceeds of eligible transactions into their chosen currency. Due to the nature of the two markets, the rates may differ and offshore participants may choose the most favourable rate. This means Australian companies trading with Chinese companies can settle trades in RMB and convert the invoiced amount, or
alternatively, set up an RMB foreign currency account to park the RMB funds. Additionally, the bank supporting the Australian company can pay or receive RMB from the Chinese company.
BENEFITS TO AUSTRALIAN BUSINESSES
Settling in RMB offers several benefits. From a currency risk-management perspective, the scheme means that Chinese counterparties can invoice and settle in RMB and therefore no longer need to factor foreign currency hedging or conversion risks when invoicing or settling their trade and service partners. This allows foreign companies to access favourable trade terms and more transparent pricing when dealing with their Chinese counterparts. A number of hedging instruments are available in the offshore market, enabling foreign importers and exporters to effectively hedge exposures. Hedging costs could be cheaper outside China, creating incentives for both parties to transfer foreign exchange risk management from mainland China to offshore. The adoption of the RMB also enables foreign companies to build deeper relationships with 商道
Australia’s economy is generally on a positive track. 那些已然嗅到商机的企业无疑将会占尽先 机，但这并不意味着其它行事更为谨慎的企业 将无法从中受益——中国市场规模之大足够让 所有各方分到一杯羹。 通过跨境人民币结算机制，那些符合条件的 交易双方将可以使用人民币进行贸易和服务结 算。这项机制有两大关键特点。其一，允许所 有的人民币跨境收付，包括买入与卖出人民 币，前提是只能用于有效的支付目的并需提供 证明文件。此类目的可包括商品和服务贸易以 及直接投资。 其次，在将符合条件的交易收入兑换为指定 货币之时，海外参与者可以在在岸人民币与离 岸人民币汇率之间做出选择。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 59
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FIGURE 1: HOW TRADING IN RMB IS CREATING OPPORTUNITIES FOR AUSTRALIAN BUSINESSES 图一：人民币交易如何扩大澳大利亚企业的机会
Source: The Renminibi, September 2016
INVOICED IN USD INVOICED IN RMB
ISSUE INVOICE FOR ¥678,525
Invoiced amount
开出¥678,525元人民币的发票
发票金额
以美元为单位的 发票
以人民币为单位的 发票
US$112,583
¥678,525
3 month USDCNH forward = 6.3396
US$107,030
3个月美元-离岸人民币远期汇率= 6.3396
3 month USDCNY forward = 6.3665
US$106,577
3个月美元-在岸人民币远期汇率= 6.3665
Net USD amount payable
US$112,583
应支付的美元净金额
Net benefits of RMB invoice (US$)
US$6,006
人民币发票所带来的净效益（美元）
Net benefits of RMB invoice (AU$)
USDCNY 3 month forward contract was executed, locking in the rate of 6.3665.
AU$7,868
人民币发票所带来的净效益（澳元）
签署3个月的美元-在岸人民币远期汇率合同， 并锁定在6.3665的汇率澳大利亚进口商。
US$106,577
Net benefits of RMB invoice (%)
5.33%
人民币发票所带来的净效益（%）
AUSTRALIAN IMPORTER:
澳大利亚进口商：
ASSUMPTIONS:
假设：
1. Now also has access to much wider supplier network in China who could only trade in RMB. 2. Larger bargaining power with existing supplier to negotiate better terms of trades. 3. Has the choice between CNY and CNH markets, depending on pricing. 4. Australian importer makes a saving of 112,583-106,577 = US$6,006 or 5.6% over original USD invoice.
1. 现在亦可以与中国境内数量更庞大、 只接受人民币的供应商进行交易了。 2. 在与现有供应商开展贸易条件谈判之 时将拥有更大的议价能力。 3. 可根据定价在人民币的在岸和离岸人 民币市场之间做出选择。 4. 相较于原来以美元为单位的发票而 言，澳大利亚进口商可以节省112,583106,557=6,006美元（即5.6%）。
∙ Chinese supplier quotes US$112,583 for the order. This includes a 3% premium to cover the cost of hedging the currency exposure. ∙ As an alternative option, invoice in RMB was also quoted for ¥678,525. ∙ Australian importer negotiated a payment term of 3 months. ∙ 3 months forward contracts for USDCNH and USDCNY were 6.3396 and 6.3665 respectively.
∙ 中国供应商对一个订单报价112,583美元 ∙ 这其中包括一笔3%的保险费用于支付与
Companies that have already recognised the opportunities have the “first-mover” advantage. 60 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
their Chinese counterparts and access a broader supplier or client base in China, in many cases resulting from a preference for the Chinese companies to invoice their exports or settle their exports in RMB. With both trade and service transactions being eligible for RMB settlement, the announcement of a number of offshore hubs with designated clearing banks, and the launch of the CIPS platform, RMB settlement is on the rise.
HEDGING RMB EXPOSURE
As mentioned previously, initiatives such as the introduction of the RMB cross-border trade settlement scheme have allowed Chinese companies to transfer their hedging risk offshore. Foreign companies outside China have access to a wide spectrum of hedging instruments. A detailed illustration of how denominating trade invoices in RMB benefits both Chinese and Australian parties, and how 商道
规避货币风险相关的成本 ∙ 在替代方案当中，以人民币为单位的报价 是678,525元人民币 ∙ 澳大利亚进口商约定了三个月的支付期。 ∙ 三个月的美元-离岸人民币与美元在岸人民币的远期汇率分别为6.3396和 6.33665。
这意味着与中国企业有着贸易往来的澳大利 亚企业可以使用人民币进行结算，然后将票面 金额兑换为澳元，或者开立一个人民币外汇账 户来存放人民币。此外，为澳大利亚企业提供 有力支持的银行也可以与中国企业开展人民币 收付业务。 对澳大利亚企业的好处 人民币结算带来了诸多好处。从货币风险管 理的角度来看，该机制意味着中国企业可以使 用人民币开具发票并进行结算，因此在开票或 者与贸易和服务合作伙伴结算之时无需考虑外 汇套期或汇兑风险。这将有助于外国企业在与 中国合作方打交道的过程中争取到有利的贸易 条件以及更为透明的价格。 离岸市场中提供了一系列的套期工具帮助外 国进口商和出口商有效应对各种风险。由于中 国境外的套期成本更低，因此买卖双方往往都 将外汇风险管理从中国大陆转移到海外。 由于中国企业在出口贸易过程中更青睐于 使用人民币开票或进行结算，因此使用人民币 也有助于外国企业与中国合作方之间建立
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US$9 billion
Chinese investors have poured an estimated US$9 billion into Australia in the past 24 months. 在过去的24个月期间， 中国投资者预计已将 90亿美元的资金送入澳 大利亚。
更为深厚的联系，并在中国积累更多的供应商 或客户。 贸易和服务交易均可使用人民币进行结算。 随着一系列指定人民币清算银行的设立，以及 人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS）平台的启用，人 民币结算已然风生水起。 规避人民币风险 如前所述，推出人民币跨境贸易结算机制等 一系列举措令中国企业得以将套期风险转移到 海外。在中国境外的外国企业将可以获得更多 的套期工具。通过详细解释如何使用人民币为
TABLE: CAPITAL AND LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT OPTIONS 资本与流动性管理选项 SOLUTION 解决方案
Outward direct investment (ODI) 对外直接投资
PROS 优点
CONS 缺点 ∙ One-way repatriation. 单向资金汇回
∙ Simple and straightforward registration process for most scenarios.
∙ Proceeds cannot be used for any purpose other than direct investment.
在绝大部分情况下只需完成简单的登记手续
资金不得用于除直接投资以外的任何目的
∙ No prior approval required and minimal restrictions on the term of loan. RMB intercompany loan 人民币公司间贷款
不需事先审批，贷款条件限制最少
∙ Tax considerations on the interest earned by the onshore lender (potentially offset with the interest payable by the offshore borrower). 在岸贷款方所赚取的利息需要纳
∙ Quick implementation with minimal lead time. 快速实施，前置时间最短
税（可能与离岸借款人支付的利息相互抵消）
∙ Potential cheaper source of funding for the offshore-based entity.
∙ Depending on the terms of the loan, liquidity sharing is only on a temporary basis.
海外实体可以获得更便宜的资金来源
根据贷款条件的不同，流动性共享仅属于临时性措施。
∙ High degree of flexibility. 极高的灵活性
∙ “Virtual” solution as funds are not moved physically across the border.
∙ Cost-efficient as onshore deposit can fully or partially offset offshore loan.
属于“虚拟”解决方案，因为资金并没有真正过境
Cross-border guarantee 经济有效，因为在岸存款可以完全或者部分抵冲离岸贷款。 跨境担保 ∙ Simple registration process with no regulatory approval required.
∙ Short-term solution. 属于短期解决方案 ∙ Tax considerations on onshore deposit interest earned vis-a-vis interest payable for offshore loan facility. 所赚取的在岸存款利息需要纳税，而离岸贷款则需要支付利息
登记手续简单，不需要取得监管审批
∙ Withholding tax applicable for dividend payments. Dividend payment 股息
∙ Repatriation of excess cash out of mainland China.
股息将需要缴纳预提税
多余的现金可以汇出中国大陆
∙ Inflexible process and complex approval process. 手续不够灵活，并涉及复杂的审批
Cash pooling 现金池
∙ Intra-day two-way liquidity management.
∙ High barrier of entry - eligibility is based on profitability, capital and scale.
即日双向流动力管理
较高的准入门槛，涉及盈利性、资本和规模等方面的要求
∙ High degree of flexibility.
∙ Expensive and time-consuming to implement.
极高的灵活性
实施过程中需要耗费成本和时间
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the exposure to RMB fluctuations can be hedged, is demonstrated in Figure 1 on the previous spread. Until recently, some global asset manager clients have held Chinese assets without hedging. The main reason is that, until early 2015, the Chinese currency traded offshore (CNH) was appreciating in value. For most, CNH depreciation was considered relatively low-risk and hedging was expensive from a risk-reward perspective. Commonwealth Bank’s early engagement with clients – focusing on the risks of CNH depreciation and the subsequent impact on final US dollar values when assets are sold – has assisted our clients immensely as the RMB is no longer a one-way bet.
RMB IN CAPITAL AND LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT
China has released a number of carefully crafted reforms to enable controlled capital flows, allowing both Chinese and foreign companies to manage their capital and liquidity better. These reforms permit companies in China to fund overseas projects. They also allow businesses to integrate the intra-day liquidity of their China subsidiaries into their global
liquidity strategies to maximise baseline profits. In the past, multinationals struggled to repatriate income earned in China to their home countries. This chapter is aimed at providing various options to resolve this challenge, illustrated by the accompanying case studies and flowcharts. The table below left outlines the main channels available, with the relevant benefits and considerations for each solution.
DIRECT INVESTMENT
Capital account liberalisation reforms have resulted in the use of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Overseas Direct Investment (ODI) channels by companies to facilitate investments. These reforms replace complex approval processes with simple registration with Chinese regulators where applications satisfy eligibility criteria. ODI from China is an effective way for companies to remit capital for acquisitions or greenfield investments with minimal administrative burden. Funds can be remitted in RMB and parked in an RMB foreign currency account, and hedging instruments can be used
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单位开具贸易发票，中国企业和澳大利亚企业均 可受益匪浅。图1中介绍了如何规避与人民币波 动相关的风险。 在此之前，一些全球资产管理客户在持有 中国资产的过程中并未使用任何套期工具，其主 要原因在于：在2015年年初之前，在海外交易 的人民币（离岸人民币）一直在增值。对于大部 分人而言，人民币的贬值风险相对较低，而从风 险与回报的角度来看，套期的成本太过昂贵。 通过及早知会客户——主要向其告知出售资产之 时人民币贬值的风险及其给最终美元价值所带来 的后续影响——澳大利亚联邦银行为客户提供巨 大帮助，因为人民币单向升值的时代早已一去不 复返。 资本与流动性管理当中的人民币 中国已经公布了一系列审慎的改革举措来推 动有序的资本流动，使中外国企业均能以更好的 方式来管理其资本及流动性。 这些改革允许中国企业投资于各种海外 项目，同时也允许企业将其中国分公司的即日 流动性整合到全球流动性管理策略之中，从而 最大限度地提高基线利润。在过去，跨国企业 需要想尽各种办法将其在中国市场上赚到钱汇回 到本国。本章的目的在于为解决这些挑战提供 更多的选择，并附上相关案例研究与流程图以作 说明。
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FIGURE 2: THE THREE STEPS FOR REMITTING INVESTMENT PROCEEDS
图二：汇款投资的三个步骤
Source: The Renminibi, September 2016
Obtain ODI certificate from Chinese regulator and present to remitting bank 从中国监管部门获得对外直接投资证书， 并提交给汇款银行
CHINESE COMPANY 中国企业
中国银行
国直接投资汇款
FDI
ODI remittance
FDI remittance外
将人民币或者外币汇给最终收款人
对外直接投资汇 款
ODI
CHINESE BANK
Remittance of RMB or foreign currency to final beneficiary
RMB
to protect against foreign exchange fluctuations for the duration of the investment. ODI processes have been streamlined to a simple registration with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China (MOFCOM), and can be typically completed within seven working days. While certain projects may require additional approvals, most require only registration. Similarly, in the case of FDI, foreign companies first need to understand whether their proposed projects are categorised "encouraged", "restricted" or "prohibited" by MOFCOM. In "encouraged" industries, the controlling shareholder must be a Chinese entity. Once the registration for direct investment is complete, remitting investment proceeds is a simple three-step process, as shown in Figure 2.
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Obtain FDI certificate from Chinese regulator and present to remitting bank 从中国监管部门获得外国直接投资证书， 并提交给汇款银行
FOREIGN COMPANY 外国企业
Remittance of RMB or foreign currency to final beneficiary 将人民币或者外币汇给最终收款人
澳大利亚联邦银行
INTERCOMPANY LOANS
Domestic Chinese businesses providing funding for international expansion, or Chinese subsidiaries of foreign companies sharing liquidity to fund head-office operations, can make use of intercompany loans for their funding needs. This option is efficient and simple to implement, as there are few regulatory hurdles. Companies agree on loan terms and submit the loan contract to their bank to process the remittance. The example in Figure 3 far right shows an outbound intercompany loan denominated in RMB. More stringent controls apply to inbound loans and/or those denominated in foreign currencies. These fall under a separate scheme governed by China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange.
There are no signs of China’s appetite for Australian property abating. 64 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
CROSS-BORDER GUARANTEE
Finally, the cross-border guarantee, permitted for the first time by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) in 2013, is a simplified option for multinationals to optimise liquidity management. A company can deposit excess cash with its China-based bank – for instance, with Commonwealth Bank in Shanghai – as collateral for a loan by Commonwealth Bank to the company’s offshore parent company or affiliate. This structure is flexible and can be tailored to the company’s specific requirements. With no physical movement of cash, the company can retain money in China to continue funding its operations and expansion.
CONCLUSION
The conclusion of the decade-long negotiation of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) also represents a new phase in Australia’s trade relationship with China. The benefits of ChAFTA extend beyond traditional FTAs, in which trade tariffs are reduced or removed, but it will also allow Australian services to be exported to China with greater market access – including improvements in movement of people, mutual recognition of qualifications and ability to establish commercial presence in China without most of the regulatory red tape. 商道
直接投资 资本项目自由化改革鼓励企业纷纷使用外国 直接投资（FDI）以及海外直接投资（ODI）来 开展投资。 这些改革使用简单的主管部门登记——当相 关申请符合既定标准之时——来取代过去较为 复杂的审批手续。 海外直接投资是中国企业汇出资本开展收购 活动或者绿地投资的一种有效途径，并可以将 行政负担减少至最低限度。相关资金可以按人 民币的形式汇出并存放在一个人民币外汇账户 内，同时企业也可以使用套期工具来规避整个 投资期间的汇率波动风险。 海外直接投资的手续已经简化为向中国的国 家发改委以及商务部进行简单的登记；登记过 程通常在七个工作日内可以完成。虽然某些特 定项目可能需要进行额外的审批，但在绝大部 分情况下企业只需完成登记即可。 同样，在外国直接投资的情况下，外国企业 首先需要了解其拟投资项目是属于中国商务 部“鼓励”、“限制”还是“禁止”的类别。 在受鼓励的产业部门当中，主要股东必须是一 家中国实体。 公司间贷款 当本土中国企业需要为国际扩张提供资金之 时，或者当外国企业的中国分公司需要将流动 性分享给总公司以便为其业务经营活动注入资 金之时，这些企业可以使用公司间贷款来满足 他们的融资需求。该方案简单易行，并且也不 会有太多监管方面的阻碍。企业之间在对贷款
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FIGURE 3: PROCESSES FOR USING INTERCOMPANY LOANS 图三: 公司间贷款流程
CHINESE COMPANY 中国企业
Loan repayment in RMB
Remittance of RMB to beneficiary
使用人民币偿还 贷款
将人民币汇给 收款人
More importantly, the “Most Favoured Nation” clause provides the assurance that, should competitors from other markets receive better treatment through their own future FTA, Australia will be accorded equivalent treatment. With companies now having greater access to the RMB and the Chinese market, they can strengthen their operational strategy by shoring up their liquidity requirements. Having enough firepower in this regard can make a significant difference to the success of any venture that includes China. The plethora of schemes and solutions means that businesses – from small-to-medium enterprise operations to global multinationals – now have more choice and flexibility to fine-tune effective strategies to capitalise on China’s efforts to globalise its currency.
JLL sees benefits for China CHINA 中国分行
Loan repayment in RMB
Loan proceeds in RMB
使用人民币偿还贷款
所得到的人民币 贷款
OFFSHORE 海外 分行
Conversion of loan repayment to RMB
Conversion of loan proceeds to AUD
将还款金额兑换为人 民币
将人民币贷款兑换为 澳元
OFFSHORE AFFILIATE 海外关联公司
JLL, the world’s leading integrated real estate services firm, estimates Chinese investors have poured US$9 billion into Australia in the past 24 months and says there are no signs of their appetite for Australian property abating. “Demand from JLL’s clients to improve their global investment strategies has enabled us to promote the RMB as a major alternative international currency,” JLL Head of China desk Australia Michael Zhang says. “If the RMB continues to be successfully internationalised, it should ease the downward pressure on China’s foreign reserves, which (at least in theory) should partly relax the Chinese government’s restriction on capital outflows. “Successful internationalisation of the RMB may also help China rebalance its economy by lowering onshore interest rates and the costs of currency hedges for investors.”
条件达成一致意见之后再将贷款合同提交给银 行，由后者处理后续汇款事宜。 图3提供了一个以人民币为单位的出境公司 间贷款范例。入境贷款以及/或者以外币为单 位的贷款将会受到更为严格的管制，并由中国 国家外汇管理局通过一项独立的机制进行管 理。 跨境担保 中国人民银行于2013首次批准通过了跨境担 保机制；这也是跨国企业优化流动性管理的一 个简化选择。企业可以将额外现金存放在一家 位于中国的银行之内——比如澳大利亚联邦银 行上海分行——以此作为澳大利亚联邦银行向 该企业的海外母公司或关联公司提供贷款之时 的抵押。这种机制十分灵活，并可根据企业的 特定需求进行定制。在现金没有出现实际流动 的情况下，该企业可以将资金留在中国以继续 为其业务经营和扩张提供资金。
仲量联行：人民币国际化将 令中国受益匪浅 全球知名的综合不动产服务企业仲量联行 （JLL）表示：在过去的24个月期间，中国 投资者预计已将90亿美元的资金送入澳大 利亚，并且他们对于澳大利亚不动产的渴 求丝毫没有减弱的迹象。 仲量联行澳大利亚公司的中国业务部主 管Michael Zhang表示：“我们客户因改进 全球投资策略而涌现的需求促使我们积极 向其推荐使用人民币来作为一项主要的替 代性国际货币。” “如果人民币在国际化之路上更上一层 楼，则中国外汇储备缩水的压力将会有所 减轻，至少理论上中国政府可能会放松其 对于资本外流的控制。 “人民币国际化的成功也能推动离岸利 率以及投资者货币套期成本的下降，从而 帮助中国实现经济再平衡。” www.jll.com.au 本项案例研究系首次发布在澳大利亚联邦 银行名为“人民币：从人民的钞票到全球 性的货币”的报告之中。
www.jll.com.au This case study was first published the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s report, “The Renmimbi: From the people’s money to a global currency”
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The RMB cross-border scheme has allowed Chinese companies to transfer their hedging risk offshore. 结论 在长达十年的漫长谈判之后，《中澳自由贸 易协定》的签署意味着中澳两国贸易关系已进 入一个全新的发展阶段。该协定所带来的种种 好处远远超出了旨在降低或者取消贸易关税的 传统自由贸易协定。在将各项服务出口到中国 的过程中，澳大利亚也将获得更多的市场机 遇，包括人员流动性的改善、资质的互认，以 及不受各种繁文缛节的束缚在中国建立商业根 基等等。更重要的是，根据“最惠国”条款的 规定，如果来自其它国家的竞争对手通过其未 来签订的自由贸易协定享受到更好的待遇，则 澳大利亚也将能享受到同等的待遇。 随着人民币和中国市场向澳大利亚企业的更 进一步开放，它们的流动性需求将可以得到解 决，并进而巩固它们的经营战略。“火力”是 否充足对于企业的成功与否至为重要，在中国 也然。这些一系列的机制与解决方案意味着从 中小企业到全球性的大企业如今将拥有更多的 选择和灵活性来微调它们的战略，并在中国的 人民币全球化进程当中获益。 MonoGanguli领导着一支全球业务方式 设计团队，专注于为澳大利亚联邦银行全球 市场事业部的客户提供量身定制的风险管理 解决方案。金融投资者研究系其关键业务之 一；团队成员与机构客户开展紧密合作，以设 计出契合投资者具体目标的有效金融风险 管理策略。如需了解与澳大利亚联邦银行人 民币解决方案相关的更多信息，欢迎访问： cba.com.au/rmb。 66 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
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Macrolink embraces opportunities in Australia Macrolink, a diversified consortium with businesses in various industries, has a positive view about the investment outlook of the Australian market: “Australia has a relatively stable political landscape, and this is the [key] prerequisite for foreign investors,” says Michael Gao, Managing Director and Chief Representative of Macrolink in Australia. Founded 26 years ago, Macrolink Group employs more than 45,000 people and has businesses in 25 provinces and autonomous regions in China. It also has operations in France, Spain, South Korea, Malaysia, Australia, Indonesia, Zambia, Peru and others. It has eight listed subsidiaries that reported total revenue of RMB60.5 billion (AU$12 billion) in 2015. (www.macrolink.com.cn/en) While there are regulatory considerations on movement of capital across the Chinese border, Macrolink has actively sought the most efficient channels to invest in Australia. Its recent acquisition of the prestigious 71 Macquarie Street property overlooking Circular Quay was funded in RMB, including the use of the RMB crossborder guarantee scheme. With this, Macrolink is well positioned to expand in Australia. “We expect the signing of ChAFTA will further streamline investment processes, and this will enable us to seek new opportunities in other industries including gold mining, dairy and other precious metals.” Macrolink Real Estate will benefit from Australia’s decision to increase the number of visas for primary and secondary students, a move Mr Gao says will enhance the development of the local real estate market. He believes there will also be other opportunities as Australia’s economy is generally on a positive track and China’s gradual implementation of its One Road, One Belt plan “heralds the advent of a new boom in Australia’s mining industry”.
商道
This case study was first published the Commonwealth Bank of Australia’s report, “The Renmimbi: From the people’s money to a global currency”
新华联把握澳大利亚商机 作为一家涉足众多行业的多元化集团，新 华联十分看好澳大利亚市场的投资 前景。新华联澳大利亚分公司董事总经理 兼首席代表高云鹏表示：“澳大利亚的政 治环境相对稳定，这是外国投资者所看重 的一个（关键）先决条件。” 创立于26年前的新华联集团如今拥有 4.5万名员工，旗下企业遍布中国25个省 份和自治区，同时也在法国、西班牙、韩 国、马来西亚、澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、 赞比亚、秘鲁等国家设立了分支机 构。2015年，新华联旗下八家上市公司 所披露的总收入达到605亿元人民币（相 当于120亿澳元）（www.macrolink. com.cn/en）。 出于中国对跨境资本流动进行监管的原 因，新华联一直在积极寻找各种投资澳大 利亚的最有效渠道。 新华联最近使用了人民币收购了可以俯 瞰环形码头的著名麦考瑞大街71号项目， 包括使用了人民币跨境担保方案。通过此 次收购，新华联已做好了在澳大利亚大展 宏图的充足准备。“我们预计《中澳自由 贸易协定》的签署将进一步简化投资流 程，并有助于我们发掘其它行业的全新商 机，包括金矿开采、乳品以及其它贵金属 等等。” 新华联置地也将受益于澳大利亚关于增 加小学生和中学生签证数量的决定；高先 生表示这项举措将会大大推动当地不动产 市场的开发。 他认为，随着澳大利亚经济步入正轨， 澳大利亚也将为投资者带来各种其它商 机，而中国“一带一路”计划的逐步推 进“预示着澳大利亚矿业部门的全新繁荣 时代即将来临”。 本项案例研究系首次发布在澳大利亚联邦 银行名为“人民币：从人民的钞票到全球 性货币”的报告之中。
INDUSTRY
工商界
商道
H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 67
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投资
By David Chin, founder and managing director of Basis Point 作者： 甄竟安，悉尼Basis Point董事总 经理（澳中投资专家）
中国的新富阶层
NOUVEAU RICHE
China’s rich are one of the world’s newest, largest and fastest-growing concentrations of wealth in recent history. So who are they, what is their impact and what are their investment intentions in Australia and the rest of the world? 中国富豪是全球近代史上最新出现、数量最多以及财富增长最快的群体之一。 那么，他们是谁？影响力如何？他们在澳大利亚以及全球其它国家又怀着怎样 的投资喜好？
I
t’s not surprising the growing pool of monied people in China has attracted international attention from governments offering investor and entrepreneur visas to asset owners selling property, businesses and infrastructure. Fund managers, private bankers and wealth managers providing investment expertise are also keenly on the lookout for opportunities, not to mention luxury purveyors of premium consumer goods, culture, art, travel and “experiences”.
BIG SPENDERS
A plethora of research reports have recently been issued by Chinese and global private banks and consultancies on China’s new rich. It shows there are 1.1 to 1.4 million High Net Worth (HNW) individuals in China, defined as those with more than CNY10m (A$1.9m) in net assets outside the family home. Together these people have more than US$5 trillion in assets (although this fluctuates when ranked in US$, as is the norm in comparing HNW across countries). Given they are growing by 10-15 per cent per year in number and in combined wealth, their numbers will double in four to seven years’ time, a much faster rate than the global rich. 6 8 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
Interestingly, China has around the same number of billionaires as the US but more women in the billionaire ranks. These people mostly have assets tied up in their businesses. Many are first generation wealth compared to global rich, which means a huge inter-generational wealth transfer is coming. For money invested outside their business, many of China’s HNW are focusing on preserving wealth and less so on growing wealth (since it is their business that is growing wealth). Notably, they still don’t have a lot invested in overseas markets (around 5-15 per cent vs 20+ per cent for global rich according to some surveys) but this is increasing.
1.1-1.4m The current number of High Net Worth (HNW) individuals in China. 中国大约有110-140万的 高净值人士。
商道
不
无意外，中国越来越多的有钱人吸引了 所有各方的关注——从发放投资者签证 以及企业家签证的各国政府，到那些出售不动 产、企业和基础设施的资产业主。 提供投资服务的基金经理、私人银行家以 及理财经理也在纷纷寻觅各种机会，更不用 说那些提供顶级消费品、文化、艺术、旅游 以及“体验”等各色业务的经营者了。 大富豪 近年来，各大中国和全球私人银行以及咨询 公司纷纷发布了与中国新富阶层相关的众多研 究报告。 这些报告显示中国大约有110-140万的高净 值人士，也就是除家庭住房以外净资产超过 1000万元人民币（约合190万澳元）的个人。 这些人士的资产合计超过了5万亿美元—— 虽然按美元计算，该总值可能会出现波动，但 按美元计算是为了方便在不同国家之间进行高 净值对比。 中国富人的数量和总财富每年按10-15% 的速度递增，并且其数量将在在4-7年的时间 内翻番；这个速度远远超过了全球富人的增长 速度。 有意思的是，虽然中国亿万富豪的数量与 美国旗鼓相当，但女性富豪数量却大大超出了 美国。这些富豪的资产大部分都与其名下企业 挂钩；与全球富豪相比，中国的富人大多属于 富一代，这意味着代际财富转移的时代即将 到来。
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INVESTMENT
投资
商道
H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 69
INVESTMENT
投资
对于在企业之外开展的投资，中国许多高净 值人士所看重的多是如何守住财富而非增加财 富——因为他们经营企业的目的就是为了增加 财富。值得注意的是，并没有太多的中国富人 投资于海外市场（根据某些调查，仅有5-15% 的中国富人投资于海外市场，而全球平均水平 则为20%以上），但这个比例正在增长之中。
In four years, A$8 billion has been invested in Australia via Significant Investor Visas. 70 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
IMPACT ON THE WORLD
China’s rich are making a big impact on the world… and an even bigger impact where there is limited supply of what they want to buy. This has been particularly felt in premium residential property markets in the US, Canada, Australia, UK and parts of Asia. As China’s rich become more numerous, they are expected to keep buying premium property overseas that has limited supply. This has already, and will continue to, drive up luxury real estate prices. The result is a widening gap between premium and average priced homes, and will lead to increased local community concerns about a “rich-poor” divide partly driven by China’s rich. We are already seeing local push-back, with increased foreigner taxes by some municipalities. 商道
对不动产的渴求 中国富人正在给这个世界带来深远的影 响——尤其是当他们所要购买的东西供应有限 之时。 这一点在美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、英国和 亚洲部分国家的高端住宅市场当中可见一斑。 随着中国富人数量的与日俱增，他们将会持 续买入供应量有限的海外高端地产。这种势头 已经并将继续推高豪华地产的价格。 其最终的结果就是高端住宅与平价住宅之间 的差距越拉越大，并且很有可能加深当地民众 对于中国富人将导致“贫富有别”之社会问题 的担忧（他们对此至少负有部分责任）。 一些地方政府已经开始提高对外国人征收的 各种税费，籍此来阻挡外国人的“入侵”。 中国的富人也在推高对奢侈品和相关服务的 需求，仅在去年就买走了全球近一半的奢侈 品。在一些商品供应量有限的领域——比如高 端食品（日本牛、鲍鱼、松露、小龙虾等 等）——商品的价格已经开始攀升，而这个势 头还将持续下去。 这就为各大奢侈品供应商带来了无限商 机——只要它们拥有知名的品牌和稳定的质 量，并且有效瞄准中国的高净值阶层。 少数知名中国富豪也纷纷将国际娱乐和体育 资产收入囊中，比如好莱坞工作室以及欧洲的 足球俱乐部。他们希望借助全球人才之力来满 足中国日益壮大的中产阶级队伍的消费需求。 在拍摄面向本土市场的电影作品之时，中国 电影公司需要进行“自我审查”；这种情况屡 见不鲜。哪家电影公司会在观众当中有儿童的 情况下推出带有“成人级”内容的电影？同 样，哪家电影公司会在观众为中国人的情况下 拍摄带有反华内容的电影？ 中国领导人也希望借其富豪公民之手将 “中国梦”付诸实现，包括全球性的商业成 功、创新、投资以及公共关系，也即让更多的 中国个人、机构和名人出现在世界舞台之上。 重要的是，中国领导人希望这些富豪公民担 负起更多的社会责任。 与全球富豪相比，中国富人并不热衷于慈善 事业，但随着中国颁布一些新的法律来鼓励 慈善，做慈善的中国富人数量也在不断增长 之中。 但是，与其它国家的文化一样，中国富人们 也面临着“富不过三代”的威胁。
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投资
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预订时，请提供： · 折扣代码(CDP#)： 国航1445402/东航1469575/南航1503704 · 您的航空公司会员卡号(国航“凤凰知音”/东航 “东方万里行”/南航“明珠俱乐部”) Hertz 澳大利亚门店已接受中国驾照，只需同时提供 中国驾照英文翻译件。Hertz免费为客户提供中国驾照 英文翻译。欢迎浏览 www.hertz.cn或关注Hertz官微 (hertzguojizuche)免费进行申请。
Hertz locations in Australia accept China Driver’s Licenses when accompanied with an English translation. Please visit www.hertz.cn or follow Hertz China Wechat (ID: hertzguojizuche) to get an English translation of your China Driver’s License for FREE!
预订中心 400 921 1138 (境外客户请拨打0086 21 22261700) 公司官网: www.hertz.cn 官方微信: hertzguojizuche
Reservations & Enquiries: 400 921 1138 (0086 21 22261700) Website: www.hertz.cn WeChat: hertzguojizuche *Terms & conditions apply: The offer is valid on Hertz Affordable Rates at participating locations in Australia. Valid on selected car groups. Frequent Flyer points can only be earned on one Frequent Flyer program for each qualified rental. 24 hours reservation in advance is required. Hertz standard terms and conditions apply. Offer valid until Dec 31 2017. For more details, please contact Hertz China at 400 921 1138.
温馨提示：以上优惠适用于参加活动的 Hertz澳大利亚门店和Hertz超值优惠价格； 适用于多数车组；每次有效租车只能累积一个航空公司的里程；需提前24小时 预订；适用于Hertz标准的条款和条件；优惠有效期至2017年12月31日; 更多细则，详询Hertz中国预订中心.
商道
H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 71
INVESTMENT
China’s rich are also driving demand for luxury goods and services. They accounted for nearly half of global luxury purchases last year. In markets with limited supply, such as premium foods (wagyu, abalone, truffles, crayfish, etc), prices have and will continue to climb. This is presenting opportunities for luxury suppliers as long as they have brand recognition, consistent quality supply and effective distribution into the Chinese HNW sector. A few high-profile Chinese rich are also buying international entertainment and sporting assets such as Hollywood studios and European football clubs. They see value in harnessing global talent to feed a growing Chinese middle class consumer market. Ownership has influence. Films made by Chinese-owned firms will experience “self-censorship” when creating products for its market. But this is nothing new. What company would create “adult X-rated” content if its viewers were children? Likewise, what filmmaker would consistently create anti-Chinese content if its viewers were the Chinese people? China’s leadership also wants its rich citizens to help make its “China dream” come true, including global business success, innovation, investments, and in public relations where Chinese individuals, institutions and celebrities
投资
are increasingly visible on the world stage. Importantly, China’s leadership is looking at its wealthy citizens to be more socially responsible. Philanthropy in China is less active than the global rich, but is growing as new Chinese laws are introduced that encourages charity. But in China, as in other cultures, the saying “sandals to sandals in three generations” is a major threat. Many parents of the “fuer-dai” (second generation of the nouveau riche) are growing concerned about their children’s extravagant lifestyles and lack of social responsibility in an age of abundance (abundance for them, but not the masses). This concern is especially important as their children will likely be the successors of their fortunes in years to come. We can expect to see the government be more proactive in re-shaping the fuer-dai to become more like “model citizens”. Because their wealth, if harnessed correctly, has the power to build on the “China dream”, particularly in strengthening the new tech economy. Four of the five richest Chinese last year came from the technology-related sector, and the next generation of globally attuned wealthy Chinese has the opportunity to improve the world with their innovation (eg, drones, industrial robotics, electric cars).
Photo STR / Getty Images
China’s wealthy are leading the world in luxury purchases
72 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
商道
China’s rich accounted for nearly half of global luxury purchases last year. 许多“富二代”的父母对于子女挥霍无度的 生活方式以及在各类物质应有尽有的年代（应 有尽有仅仅是对于他们而言，而非对于普罗大 众）缺乏社会责任的表现愈发忧心忡忡。 考虑到他们的子女未来将会接管他们手中的 财富，这种担忧更是有增无减。 预计中国政府将会采取积极举措来引导这些 富二代成为“模范公民”，因为他们的财富如 果运用得当的话，中国将有望实现它的“中国 梦”，尤其是推动“高科技”经济的发展。 去年中国排名前五位的富豪当中就有四位来 自于科技相关的产业，并且那些将目光投向全 球的下一代中国富人将有机会通过他们的各种 创新来改变这个世界——比如无人机、工业机 器人和电动汽车。 投资喜好 众多调查显示中国富豪们依旧钟情于海外投 资，而海外地产更是他们的首选，因为地产被 视为是一项安全而有用的投资（作为第二个 家、为留学海外的子女提供住处，或者作为度 假屋使用或用于出租）。 投资于海外市场也能避开中国房地产市场的 风险；许多人认为中国的房地产市场存在着严 重的泡沫。 货币对冲则是中国富人投资海外的又一大考 虑，但这一点显然有悖于中国政府提振人民币 以及控制外汇储备的决心。 但是，一些观察人士也注意到中国政府提振 人民币兑美元汇率的举动无疑是对美国关于中 国“是一个设法压低人民币汇率的货币操纵 国”这一说法的有力回击。对于中国政府而言 这不失为一个双赢的局面！ 生活品质是海外投资和移民的一大关键考虑 因素。 这是一个敏感的话题，因为在过去的几十年 间中国通过“牺牲”环境和生活品质换来了
Luxury yachts line the harbour in the “Hong Kong of Northern
INVESTMENT
Photo Johannes Eisele / Getty Images
China”, Dalian, a wealthy city on the rise 投资
INVESTMENT INTENTIONS
Multiple surveys of China’s rich indicate continued overseas investments. Overseas property is the obvious choice. It is regarded as safe and useable (as a second home, home for their children to study overseas, or as a holiday house or rental property). Diversification into overseas markets also reduces their exposure to Chinese property, which many fear is in bubble territory. Currency hedging is an added reason for investing offshore, but this is increasingly at odds with the Chinese government’s move to support its currency and manage its FX reserves. However, some observers may note that the Chinese government’s action to strengthen its currency against the USD should diminish arguments by the USA that China is a “currency manipulator seeking to drive down the yuan”. A win-win for the Chinese government! Quality of life is a key factor in offshore investment and immigration intentions. It is a sensitive topic with the reasoning that China “sacrificed” its environment and quality of life in recent decades to reach a “critical mass” of wealth and power that in turn has succeeded in creating more economic benefits for the wider nation. This notion of “sacrifice” is not unique in history. The misery of life in “Dickensian” UK in the mid-1800s, captured in the novels of
Charles Dickens, took place at a time when Britain was building its global empire and became immensely wealthy. The Chinese government is moving fast to improve the domestic environment while keeping its economy growing to re-balance the nation’s wealth. The risk for rich Chinese is that they and their children, by being “out of the country”, will miss out on economic opportunities from a growing China in the long term – yet China’s quality of life rises (especially if innovation and technology can speed up lifestyle improvements). To lessen this risk, they seek to have a foot in two places – China and the West. This is why investment visas such as Australia’s Significant Investor Visa (which requires just 160 days stay in four years) has been attractive, despite its “cost” of A$5m in investment. To date, around 1600 SIVs have been issued since its inception four years ago, meaning A$8 billion has been invested in Australia under the scheme. We at BasisPoint expect the demand for such visas to continue at around 400 per year. This entry of China’s rich into Australia will deepen economic, social and cultural ties between the two nations. And despite periodic tensions (as within any “marriage” of two peoples or nations) and government actions to accommodate domestic sensitivities, this can only be a good thing. 商道
“至关重要”的财富和国力，并进而成功地为 整个国家创造出更多的经济效益。 此种“牺牲”在历史上并非鲜见。查尔斯. 狄更斯小说中所描述的1800年代中期英国人民 的悲惨生活恰逢英国打造全球帝国并成为一个 富裕强国的时代。 在紧锣密鼓地改善国内环境的同时，中国政 府也在努力保持经济增长以实现国家财富的再 平衡。 中国富人们所面临的风险是：从长远来， “走出国门”的他们以及他们的子女将无法再 受益于中国发展所带来的各种经济机遇，而与 此同时中国的生活品质也在不断提升之中（尤 其考虑到各种创新和科技可以加快生活方式的 改善）。 为了降低此种风险，中国高净值人士采取的 对策就是同时脚踏中国和西方两只船。这就是 为什么各种投资签证大行其道的原因，比如需 要付出500万美元投资之“昂贵”代价的澳大 利亚重要投资者签证（四年时间内只需投资者 在澳居留160天）。 到目前为止，自四年前推出此签证以来，澳 大利亚已经发放了大约1600份重要投资者签 证；这意味着持证者们已通过该机制在澳大利 亚投资了80亿美元。我们预计这项签证的年需 求量将保持在400份左右。 随着中国富人进入澳大利亚，两国之间的经 济、社会和文化纽带将会进一步深化。尽管紧 张局面时有出现（就和两个人或两个国家之间 的任何“联姻”一样），并且澳大利亚政府也 不时需要采取措施来安抚国内民众的敏感情 绪，但总体而言这仍将是好事一桩。 H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 73
CONSUMER
By Jeremy Oliver, Wine writer, critic and presenter 作者：杰里米·奥利弗，葡萄酒作家、评论家及主持人
两个国家与葡萄酒的故事
A TALE OF TWO COUNTRIES… AND WINE
Just because it’s wine doesn’t make it different. If you try to enter the China market with a briefcase full of samples in one hand and an order book in the other, you’re nothing more than a tourist – and it’s unlikely you’ll be a happy one. 在中国推销葡萄酒和做其他生意并无多少实质不同。如果您一手提着装满 样品的公文包，一手拿着定货簿，以这样的方式进军中国市场，那么您只 会沦落为到中国一游的游客，只不过您这趟旅程不太可能称心如意。
消费者
CONSUMER
消费者
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ustralian wine companies that have found success in China have done so through their own combination of observing and understanding Chinese culture. They’ve had a clear idea of what they want to achieve, and known their limitations in terms of price and delivery. The successful companies have also been prepared to move outside their comfort zones – perhaps by taking some calculated risks with people and technology. Hugh Cuthbertson, for example, who has sold Australian wine all over the world for more than 35 years, says China is causing him to relearn almost everything he thought he knew. And given that China is now responsible for nearly 90 percent of his company’s sales, that’s a stimulating, even mind-boggling experience. “Things might not happen that fast initially,” he says. “But once you’re ready to move, what you think will happen in five years happens in six months.”
RELATIONSHIP GUY – ROB DOLAN’S STORY
For Rob Dolan, who is the managing director of the eponymous Rob Dolan wines, business with China is a very personal situation. He says it takes two to three years to build relationships and trust. Dolan is the relationships guy within the company who has trod his way up and down different Asian markets for years. While he would perhaps prefer to spend a little more of his time on the winery floor, he’s at his best when seeking and building the kind of long-term relationships that are critical to success in China. “Chinese family businesses want relationships with Australian family businesses,” Dolan explains. “So the first thing to do is to learn more about the market, not to go there and try to be a superstar. You then build and do it quietly, for growth can be considerable. 商道
中国，一些澳大利亚葡萄酒公司通过观 察和了解中国文化而获得了巨大的成功。 它们十分清楚自己要什么，并深知自身在价 格和交货方面的种种局限性。那些成功的企业 也做好了走出“舒适区”的充足准备——或许 在人员和技术方面冒一些成败参半的风险。 比如，在全球各国销售澳大利亚葡萄酒已 达35年之久的休斯·库斯伯森表示：中国正在 促使他重新学习每一件他自认为已经很了解的 事务。 现在，中国市场占其公司近90%的销售额， 这是一个令人振奋且难以置信的成绩。 他表示：“刚开始的时候我们的业务并没有 发展得这么快，但一旦你做好了行动的准备， 你认为需要耗费五年时间方能完成的事情可以 在短短六个月之内搞定。”
关系达人——罗伯·多兰的故事 罗伯·多兰是与之同名的罗伯多兰葡萄酒的 董事总经理。对他而言，在中国做生意是一件 非常私人的事情。他花费了两到三年时间建立 了各种关系和信任。 多兰是公司内部的关系达人，并已在亚洲市 场中深耕多年。虽然他可能更喜欢把更多的时 间花在酿酒上，但在中国寻找和建立公司成功 所需的各种长期关系才是他大展身手的时候。 多兰解释道：“中国的家族企业更希望与澳 大利亚的家族企业开展合作。” H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 75
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Nab Residential Property Survey: Q2 2016 CONSUMER LEGAL by NAB Group Economics
消费者 法律
Embargoed until: 11.30am Friday July 15 2016
Housing sentiment softens but still positive. Victoria and Queensland expected to provide the best capital returns in the next 1-2 years as prices continue falling in WA. Overall demand from foreign buyers continues to shrink as buyers retreat from Queensland and re-focus towards Victoria.
Housing market sentiment softened in Q2’16, with NAB’s Residential Property Index falling to +3 (+6 in Q1). It moderated in all states bar SA/NT (but negative). NSW joined VIC as best performing states, followed by QLD. WA languishing at survey lows.
Average survey expectations for house prices next year upgraded in NSW (0.9%), QLD (1.3%) and SA/NT (0.1%) and cut back in VIC (1.3%) and WA (-1.3%). QLD (1.8%) & VIC (1.4%) to provide the best capital returns in 2 years’ time, with smaller gains in NSW (0.9%) & SA/NT (0.3%). Prices to continue falling in WA (-0.5%).
NAB’s national house price forecast for 2016 has been increased to 5.1% (from 1.5%) and 0.5% in 2017. Unit price forecasts were lifted to 3.6% for 2016 (-1% previously) and -1.9% for 2017.
Composition of properties bought by foreigners unchanged - 53% apartments, 29% houses and 18% re-development. But ratios vary by state In QLD, 63% were apartments, but more houses (38%) and land for re-development (23%) sold in VIC.
In established markets, the share of foreign buyers was unchanged at 7.2%, with foreign buyers playing a bigger role in VIC (9.6%) and QLD (7%), but less conspicuous in NSW (7.5%) and WA (5.8%).
The market share of foreign buyers in new Australian housing markets fell for the third straight quarter to 10.4%. But this masks important movements by state. A sharp fall in foreign buyer activity in QLD to 11.2% (21.9% in Q1) was offset by a significantly bigger presence in VIC (21.7% up from 10.7% in Q1) and a modest rise in NSW (11.8% up from 11.1% in Q1). 76 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
商道
Around three-quarters of all apartments sales to foreigners valued below $1 million (35% less than $500,000 and 39.4% between $500,000-$1 million. In the house market, two-thirds valued below $1 million (around 30% below $500k and 36.4% between $500,000-$1 million).
36.4% between $500,000-$1 million).
NAB Residential Property Survey Q2 2016 Tight credit, housing affordability and construction costs are the main constraints to new housing development, while
employment security, access to credit and price levels the biggest impediments to buying an existing property in Australia. Average Survey House Price Expectations (%)
%
4.0 Foreign 4. Buyers NAB Residential Property Survey 消费者
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Q2 2016 CONSUMER
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5 Overall foreign buying activity 2.0 0 The overall share of foreign buyers continued to fall in new Australian property markets in Q2, but was unchanged in 1.0 Residential 1. Property - Market Performance established property markets at 2-year low levels. Foreign buyers accounted for 10.4% of total new property sales in -5 0.0 Q2 (down from 11.8% in Q1 and 12.8% a year ago) and 7.2%Rental in established property markets (unchanged from Q1 House price expectations expectations -10 -1.0 but downsurvey from 8.6% a year earlier). Average expectations are for national house price Rental expectations are mixed. On average, they have -2.0 Foreign buyers more prominent were in new property markets in VIC, with market rising to growth of 0.7% were in Q2noticeably (0.4% in Q1). Expectations improved in NSW (1.2% vs.their 1.1%), SA/NTshare (0.5% vs. -1.6%) 21.7% (10.7% in in Q1). This sharp jump in buying activity came ahead of an increase in the stamp duty surcharge on upgraded in NSW (0.9% vs. -0.2%), QLD (1.3% vs. 1.2%) & and QLD (0.3% vs.-0.6%), but have softened in VIC (1.1% UNITS HOUSES foreign buyers of residential real estate in VIC from 3% to 7% on contracts signed from July 1 2016. SA/NT (0.1% vs. -0.1%), but cut back in VIC (1.3% vs. vs. 1.6%) and WA (-1.4% vs. -1.1%). NSW is expected to NAB Residential Property Survey 2016 2016f 2017f Foreign buyers alsovery increased share slightly to 11.8% (11.1% in Q1), but thisinremains well below 1.7%) and are still weakQ1'16 intheir WA market (-1.3% vs. -1%). On in NSW provide the 2015 highest income returns 2 years’ timeQ2 (1.7% Q2'15 Q2'16 Survey high levels of 21% average, house prices are recorded expected in to Q1’15. grow 1% in 2 vs.1.3% in Q1) followed by VIC (1.3% vs. 2.1%). Positive Share of property Demand formarkets New Existing Properties from& NABleading Residential Index After the country since Q4’15, the share foreign buyers in new in (0.7% QLD fell to years’ time (0.7% inProperty Q1), led by QLD (1.8%) & VICof(1.4%). returns are also predicted in&QLD vs. sharply -0.4%) % Overseas Buyers 11.2% (from 21.9% in Q1). The QLD government has also recently passed a new 3% transfer surcharge on foreign Smaller gains are forecast for NSW (0.9%) & SA/NT SA/NT (0.5% vs. -1.2%), with rents expected to remain Q4 Buyers Q1 Q2 Next Next Next 18 4. Foreign investors buying residential property effective later this year.basically 16 (0.3%), with prices set to continue falling in WA (-0.5%). flat in WA (-0.2% vs. -0.1%). House expectation Rental in expectations 2015 2015price 2016 Qtr buyers 1 yr accounted 2 yrs 14 9.6% of total demand In established property markets, foreign for VIC (7.1% in Q1). Foreign 12 Overall foreign buying activity Average Survey House Price Expectations (%) Average Survey Rental Expectations (%) buyers buyers also more In contrast, foreign 31 active 23in QLD, 30 with their 46 market 43 share %rising to 7% (6.7% in Q1). %VIC were 23 10 The share of foreign buyers continued to7.8%) fall inand newinAustralian property markets in Q2, but was unchanged in 4.0 overall 4.0 were slightly less conspicuous in NSW (7.5% vs. WA (5.8% vs. 8.8%). 8 Next Next 234 years NSW 10 12 months26 23at 2-year 29 low 36 Next 12for months Next 2 years established property markets levels. Foreign buyers accounted 10.4% of total new property sales in 6 3.0 3.0 7 11.8% 11 in Q1 6and 12.8% 17 a year 32 ago) 36 Q2QLD (down from and 7.2% 4in established property markets (unchanged from Q1 Share of Demand for Existing Properties from 2.0 2.0 Share of Demand for New Properties from 2 but down from a year earlier). % Overseas Buyers (%) % SA/NT -31 8.6%-25 -6Buyers13 50 56 Overseas (%) 0 1.0 1.0 16 Foreign buyers were noticeably more prominent in new property markets in VIC, with their market share rising to 35 -59in in Q1). -67 This-67 -54 in -21 15 14 0.0WA (10.7% 0.0 ahead of an increase in the stamp duty surcharge on 21.7% sharp jump buying activity came 30 12 -1.0 1 of residential 6 3real estate 13 in VIC 29 from 36 foreign 3% to 7%-1.0 on contracts signed from July 1Established 2016. Properties 25 Index buyers New Properties 10 Foreign buyers also increased their market share slightly in NSW to 11.8% (11.1% in Q1), but this remains well below 20 -2.0 -2.0 8 De Iure, Senior Economist CONTACTS: Dean Pearson, Head of Behavioural & Robert Brien McDonald, Senior Economist Survey high levels of 21% recorded in Q1’15. 15 Oster, Chief Alan Economist Industry Economics Behavioural & Industry Economics Behavioural & Industry Economics 6 (03) 8634-2927 0414 444 652 (03) 8634 3221 0457 517 342 (03 8634-4611 0477 723 769 (03) 8634-3837 520 After leading the country since Q4’15, the share of foreign buyers in new property markets in QLD 0455 fell052 sharply to 10 4 11.2% (from 21.9% in Q1). The QLD government has also recently passed a new 3% transfer surcharge on foreign 5 2 Q2'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q2'15 Q2'16 National Australia Bank - Group Economics | 1 investors buying residential Q1'16 property effective later this year. 0 0 In established property markets, NAB Residential Property Indexforeign buyers accounted for 9.6% of total demand in VIC (7.1% in Q1). Foreign buyers were also more active in QLD, with their market 7% Residential (6.7% in Q1). In contrast, National housing market sentiment has softened a littleshare in Q2,rising with to NAB’s Property Indexforeign falling buyers to +3 (+6 Australia Victoria NSW Qld WA were slightly in NSW (7.5% vs. 8.8%). Australialess conspicuous Victoria NSW Qld vs. 7.8%) WA and in WA (5.8% in Q1’16) to remain below its long-term average (+13). Sentiment moderated in all states except SA/NT (up 19 to -6). Overall foreign buying activity NSW (down 3 to +23) has joined VIC (down 8 to +23) to lead the country, but VIC remains the only state still tracking
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Residential Property - Market Performance
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Share of5Demand Existing Properties from Share of Demand New Properties fromnext best performer (down above itsproperty long-term averagefor (+16). QLD was the to +6). for In contrast, sentiment among Type of purchased by foreign buyers % Overseas Buyers (%) % Overseas Buyers (%) property professionals in WA was unchanged at a Survey low -67. 16 purchased by foreigners. Overall, 53% of all foreign There was little change in the overall composition of properties 35 Confidence howeverresidential improved,property with NAB’s Residential Property Index rising to +29 next(31% yearin (+18 Q1)18% withfor 14 purchases ofhas Australian were for apartments (51% in Q1), 29% houses Q1)inand 30 SA/NT (+50) the most optimistic state (but from a smaller sample size), followed by VIC (+46), NSW (+34) and QLD 12 re-development (unchanged from Q1). 25 10index is expected to climb to +36 in 2 years’ time (+24 (+32). WA remains by far the most pessimistic state (-21). The However, these ratios continue to vary widely by state. In VIC, 43.3% of sales were apartments (39.4% in Q1), 32.5% 20 8 WA (+15) lagging, albeit the biggest improver. in Q1), with SA/NT (+56) (+43) theland country and houses (37.6% in Q1) andand justVIC over 1 inleading 4 (25.2%) for re-development purposes (23.1% in Q1). 15
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In NSW, 59.8% of all properties purchased by foreigners were4apartments (54.6% in Q1) and 22.2% houses (29.9% in 10 NAB Residential Property Index by State Index NAB Residential Property Index Index Q1). The share of property bought for re-development purposes was slightly lower (14.8% vs. 15.9% in Q1). 50 5 2 80 In40 QLD, apartments made up 62.9% of all sales (58.8% in Q1) the biggest share among the main states. Houses 0 0 60 accounted for 25.5% of foreign sales (24.3% in Q4), and purchases for re-development purposes fell to 12.1% 40 30 (17.5% in Q1). 20 Victoria Qld WA In20WA, Australia apartment sales accounted of all foreign purchases Australia (48.4% in Q1), houses forNSW 42.7% (34.5% in Q1) Victoria NSWfor 40%Qld WA average 0 and land for re-development 17.3% (17% in Q1). 10 -20 by foreign buyers Type of property purchased 0 Type of property purchased by foreign buyers -40 Type of Property Purchased by Foreign Investors by Type of Property Purchased by Foreign Investors There was little change in the overall composition of properties foreigners. -60 purchased by State % (% shareOverall, of total) 53% of all foreign -10 (% share of total) % purchases of Australian residential property were for apartments (51% in Q1), 29% houses (31% in Q1) and 18% for -80 70 70 -20 Q1'16 Q2'16 Next Qtr Next 12 mths Next 2 yrs re-development (unchanged from Q1). 60 53 53 53 53 60 51 51 62.9 49 to vary widely However, these ratios continue by state. In VIC, 43.3% of sales were apartments (39.4% in Q1), 32.5% 59.8 Australia Victoria NSW Qld SA/NT WA 50 50 houses (37.6% in Q1) and just over 1 in 4 (25.2%) land for re-development purposes (23.1% in Q1). 40 32 32 31 40 31 43.3 29 42.7 In NSW, 59.8%30of all properties purchased by31foreigners were apartments (54.6% in Q1) and 22.2% houses 40.0 (29.9% in 30 30 19 32.5 18 Q1). The share of property bought for re-development purposes was slightly lower (14.8% vs. 15.9% in Q1). 18 18 17 16 16 20 25.5 states. Houses 25.2share among the main 20 - the biggest In QLD, apartments made up 62.9% of all sales (58.8% in Q1) 22.2 10 10 14.8purposes fell to 12.1% 17.3 accounted for 25.5% of foreign sales (24.3% in Q4), and purchases for re-development 12.1 0 0 (17.5% in Q1). Q4'14 Q1'15 Q2'15 Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Vic Qld WAQ1) In WA, apartment sales accounted for 40% of all foreign purchases (48.4% in Q1),NSW houses for 42.7% (34.5% in Apartments Houses Dwelling/Land for Re-Development Apartments Houses Dwelling/Land for Re-Development and land for re-development 17.3% (17% in Q1). 商道 %
H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 77 Type of Property Purchased byNational Foreign Investors by Australia Bank - Group Economics | 5 State (% share of total)
CONSUMER
消费者
“因此，第一要务是多深入了解这个市场，而 不是大摇大摆地进场，还指望人家把你当超级 巨星来供起来。你应当不声不响地把市场建起 来，因为业务发展可能很快。” “但是，你首先要把事情做对——如果你搞 砸，那么他们（你的合作伙伴）就不会再为你 撑腰。” 除非有人专门告诉你，否则你可能永远不会 知道罗伯·多兰在中国市场有多牛。其公司为 中国生产或者调制的绝大部分葡萄酒既没有贴 上他的品牌，也没有附带任何标签。这一点实 在是太高明了！
MANY PARTNERS
90%
Hugh Cuthbertson has sold Australian wine all over the world for more than 35 years, and now China is responsible for nearly 90% of his company’s sales. 休斯·库斯伯森在全球 各国销售澳大利亚葡萄酒 已达35年之久，现在， 中国市场占其公司近90% 的销售额。
“But you need to get it right – if you get it wrong, they (your partners) won’t be around anymore.” Unless it’s pointed out to you, you might never know the extent of Rob Dolan’s engagement with the Chinese market. Most of the wine made or blended by his company for China carries neither his brand nor label. Smart. 78 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
Rob Dolan Wines buys fruit from around 22 different Yarra Valley vineyards, three of which are owned by Chinese interests. That’s a fertile ground for developing relationships and future business. The company now consults to and makes wine for a collection of Chinese-owned wine brands across southern Victoria, most of whose wine is exported to China. The Rob Dolan winery is the major production centre for the Yarradindi operation, which, after about a decade in China under its original Australian brand of Murrindindi, has become an overnight success. Rob Dolan is also a major supplier to the business that aggregates wine for Guo Degang, the celebrity Chinese comedian with more than 64 million followers on Weibo. This is another very significant export story, with more than ten containers in the first order. “With the Rob Dolan label, we are focused on about three major client bases in China,” Dolan says. 商道
众多的合作伙伴 罗伯多兰葡萄酒公司主要从雅拉谷产区的22 个不同葡萄园收购葡萄；其中有三家葡萄园由 中国人持有。这可是拓展各种中国关系及未来 业务的好根基。 该公司如今专门为维多利亚州南部由中国人 所有的一众葡萄酒品牌酿制葡萄酒，其中很大 部分葡萄酒出口到中国。 罗伯多兰酿酒厂是Yarradindi葡萄酒品牌的 主要生产中心。在中国使用原来的澳大利亚丁 迪（Murrindindi）品牌达十年之后，这个品 牌在更名后一举成名，大红大紫。 罗伯多兰也是微博粉丝高达6400万的中国相 声大师郭德纲名下葡萄酒品牌的主要供应商。 这又是一桩令人侧目的出口传奇，因为仅仅第 一笔订单就装了10多个集装箱。 多兰表示：“至于罗伯多兰品牌推出的葡萄 酒，我们主要侧重培植中国的三大主要客 户。” “避免这些客户负责的市场相重叠互相重叠至 关重要，因此我们在地理部署上谨小慎微，将 每个客户负责品牌的具体省份各不相同。” 到目前为止，进口商EMY及其与上海高端超 市“城市超市”（City Store）之间的合作堪 称传奇中的传奇；每年进口的葡萄酒超过 3000箱，并且这个数量还在不断增长之中。 清洁、绿色 在城市超市贩卖的2.4万种商品当中，绝大 部分为生鲜和有机产品；80%的商品属于进口 商品，包括贴有自身品牌的澳大利亚牛肉和 鲜奶。多家超市甚至拥有自己的酿酒厂和 焙烤厂。 这项合作背后的深厚关系意味着在城市超市 的各个门店内（上海有16家门店，北京也有几 家），罗伯多兰葡萄酒的知名度和上架率甚至 比奔富（Penfolds）还要高——虽然奔富是目 前为止在中国最受认可的顶级澳大利亚葡萄酒 品牌。 多兰将他的成功和名望归功于澳大利亚对食 品生产实施的严格管制以及澳大利亚食品蜚声
CONSUMER
消费者
“It has been important for us to prevent any crossover of their markets, so we’re careful geographically, allocating specific provinces to each of them.” The most significant of these to date has been with importer EMY and its relationship with upmarket Shanghai-based supermarket City Store, currently worth more than 3000 cases each year and growing.
CLEAN AND GREEN
Eighty percent of City Store’s inventory of 24,000 products – most of which are fresh and much of which is organically produced – is imported, including its own brands of Australian beef and fresh milk. Several stores even have their own breweries and bakeries. The strength of the relationships underpinning this deal mean that in City
Shop’s stores (of which there are around 16 in Shanghai and a couple in Beijing) the Rob Dolan wines have an even stronger visibility and floor presence than Penfolds, which is by far the top-end Australian wine brand with the highest level of recognition in China. Dolan attributes some of his success and visibility to the controls Australia places on food production and its well-known reliability. Being named by James Halliday as Australia’s best new winery also helped, along with the emergent interest within China towards “more gentle, softer and palatable wines from cooler climates ahead of the more alcoholic, heavier wines from warmer climates that were first to capture attention in China.” He remains deeply concerned about risk associated with Australia’s quality reputation.
It takes two to three years to build relationships and trust, says Rob Dolan
全 球 的 可 靠 性 。 当 然 ， 詹 姆 斯 ·哈 利 德 （James Halliday）关于罗伯多兰堪称澳大利 亚最佳新建酿酒厂的盛誉也提供了莫大的帮 助。此外，相较于那些最早引起中国消费者关 注、产自气候更温暖地区的口感醇厚的高度数 葡萄酒，中国消费者的兴趣开始突然转向那些 产自气候更冷地区、口感更温和、更轻柔以及 更适口的葡萄酒；这种转变也对多兰的成功起 到了推波助澜的作用。对于与澳大利亚品质声 誉相关的风险，多兰依然深为关切。 中国人最懂本土市场——Yarradindi的故事 库斯伯森家族在墨尔本附近的Yea谷开发出 连成一片的四座葡萄园，总面积达到165公顷 左右。由于海拔更高，因此该产区的气温也比 雅拉谷的大部分地区更冷。该产区的巨大潜力 仍不被人所知，可供种植霞多丽、设拉子以及 解白衲等品种的葡萄，以酿造口感更温和、更 清冽的葡萄酒。
Rob Dolan’s tips on doing wine business in China: 1. It makes a huge difference for an SME to get payments upfront. 2. Maintain a realistic price. In the case of the Yarra Valley, where costs are significantly higher than in the inland river regions, a winery needs to receive a minimum of $100-$110 per case. 3. Producers need to be aware of the longer-term risks in selling wines to those importers engaged in the business primarily to obtain a visa.
罗伯·多兰关于如何在 中国做葡萄酒生意的 小贴士： 1. 对于中小企业而言，能否预付款项十 分重要； 2. 定价要务实；对于成本显著高于内河 地区的雅拉谷产区，酿酒厂每箱葡萄 酒的出厂价至少要达到100-110美 元。 3. 在将葡萄酒销售给那些经营目的主要 是获得签证的进口商之时，生产商需 要了解各种更为长期的风险。
商道
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William Dayong Guo (Director – E & Y Trading and Investment) with Rob Dolan and a City Shop employee at City Shop in Sun Moon Light Centre, Shanghai
Tips from Hugh Cuthbertson on doing wine business in China: 1. The bottom end of wine pricing is commodity trading in China. 2. Create the relationship first and then you might do business. It never happens the other way around. 3. Standing behind a trade show table can be a waste of time. You have to have an introduction.
休斯·库斯伯森关于如何 在中国做葡萄酒生意的小 贴士： 1. 葡萄酒定价的底线是中国的商品交易； 2. 先建立关系，然后才能做生意，没有任 何其它捷径可走； 3. 呆站在贸易展的展台背后完全属于浪费 时间，您必须主动介绍自己。
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LOCAL CHINESE KNOWLEDGE – THE YARRADINDI STORY
The Cutherbertson family has developed a string of four vineyards in the Yea Valley near Melbourne comprising some 165 hectares. Significantly higher and therefore cooler than much of the Yarra Valley, it’s an unheralded wine region of considerable potential, with more elegant and restrained wines from varieties like chardonnay, shiraz and the cabernet family. Selling some very creditable wine under the Murrindindi and Don’t Tell Dad labels in both Australia and China, the company was doing moderately well until their largest customer, based in Hangzhou, decided to set up a wine distribution business.
MOVING WITH CHANGE
Some time later, this business asked for equity in the Australian wine production company. Then, about five years after Hugh Cuthbertson first met his new Chinese colleagues, it all changed. The Chinese product was rebranded Yarradindi – although the wines are the same as those sold in Australia – and the labels for 商道
该家族曾以“丁迪”（Murrindindi）以及 “坏孩子”（Don’t Tell Dad）的品牌在澳大 利亚和中国销售质量上乘的葡萄酒，业绩不好 也不坏，一直到该公司位于杭州的最大客户决 定成立一家葡萄酒分销公司。 与时俱进 经过一段时间的经营之后，这家公司开始要 求收购这个澳大利亚葡萄酒酿造家族的股权。 在休斯·库斯伯森首次见到他的中国新同事的 五年之后，一切都随之而改变。 销 售 到 中 国 的 产 品 被 重 新 打 上 了“Yarradindi”的品牌标签——虽然它们与 在澳大利亚销售的葡萄酒并无什么区别——这 些面向中国市场的标签是在杭州重新设计的。 库斯伯森表示，他看到新标签的第一反应就 是“你们到底做了什么啊”。 他谈到：“但马上我就想到了营销学的第一 守则——顾客是谁，以及他们需求的是什么？ 因此，我选择不对中国市场的标签提供任何建 议。”他认为澳大利亚人需要相信中国人对于 本土市场的了解。 今天，这家位于杭州的葡萄酒公司已拥有70 多名员工；在过去的六个月期间，这家公司共 进口了40个集装箱的Yarradindi葡萄酒。其业 务基本上通过互联网来开展；顾客在下单之后 的2-4个小时内即可收到葡萄酒。
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Business with China is a very personal situation. It takes years to build relationships and trust. sale in China were redesigned in Hangzhou. Cuthbertson says his first reaction on seeing the new labels was: “What have you done?” “But then I remembered the first rule of marketing – who are the customers and what do they want? So I chose not to give any label advice to China,” he relates, agreeing that Australians need to place more trust in Chinese local market knowledge. Today there are 70 people in the Hangzhoubased wine business and in the last six months it has imported 40 containers of Yarradindi wine. Its business is now largely online, delivering wine around 2-4 hours from order.
MAKE NO ASSUMPTIONS
On China’s last Singles Day and the day thereafter, 1600 dozen Yarradindi wines were sold, a surprise to Cuthbertson – who can’t predict which wines Chinese people will be attracted to most from his folio at any given time. “Forget the assumptions about China,” he says. “The biggest sellers for us the last Singles Day were merlot and riesling!” Key elements of Cuthbertson’s business model are to ensure that his partners start within their own and neighbouring provinces. That’s significant advice, since most wine companies fall over themselves to find distributors in the Tier 1 cities above all else. Furthermore, he says it’s a huge advantage that the Yarradindi wines are sold “direct from
the vineyard, with no middlemen”. This is so important, he argues, since the Chinese market demands knowledge of providence. “Show me the vineyard, show me the bottling line, show me fresh,” is what he hears all the time.
FAST TRACK – THE TIM ADAMS CONTEMPORARY CHINA STORY
Tim Adams is a well-known Clare Valley wine producer set on a fast track expansion. He’s intent on growing his Mr Mick brand to 100,000 cases within five years “when China kicks in”, and he understands the market well. That said, he’s found “it takes longer to get established in China than anywhere else”. Current sales in China are around 3000 dozen, which Adams intends to increase by at least a factor of ten. So he’s doing something quite novel and contemporary to underpin future growth by partnering with SmartTrans Holdings (SMA), an ASX-listed company that has developed a mobile and online billing and payment platform for China in conjunction with China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom, UnionPay and Alipay. SMA’s approach is to promote its partner brands via China Mobile and China Telecom, earning revenue via a combination of commissions and transaction fees.
MARKETING FUTURE
Adams is supporting this activity by signing up as a sponsor for at least one episode in 57 Films, a series on Chinese culture, cooking and wine consumption broadcast in China via CCTV and QTV and to be seen in Australia on the Nine Network. Focused on the extremely high acceptance of online sales in China, as well as the need to pay for goods securely and conveniently, Tim Adams’ approach might yet be the benchmark for future marketing in China. The massive adoption of WeChat Pay in China is indicative of this trend. But Hugh Cuthbertson has the final word: “If anyone tells you they know everything about what’s happening in the China wine market, they are kidding themselves. “Nobody does. But it certainly takes you out of your comfort zone, which isn’t a bad thing at a certain stage in life.” 商道
不做任何揣测 在中国刚刚结束的双11购物节以及随后的一天 里，该公司共卖出了19,200瓶的Yarradindi葡萄 酒。这个成绩让Cuthbertson震惊不已；他根本无 法揣测中国人在哪些时间最钟情于哪一种葡萄酒。 “别再对中国做任何揣测了，”他表示。“在双 11期间，我们最畅销的葡萄酒是梅洛和雷司令。” 在库斯伯森的商业模式当中，关键之处是确保 合作伙伴先从本省以及相邻省份入手。这是一项 非常重要的建议，因为绝大部分葡萄酒公司往往 都只会想方设法地在各个一线城市内寻找经销商。 此外，Yarradindi葡萄酒“没有中间商，直 接从葡萄园直销”的机制也提供了巨大的优势。 他认为这个优势至为重要，因为在中国市场耕耘 需要足够精明方能取得成功。 给我看下葡萄园，给我看下装瓶生产线，给 我看下新鲜度……这些都是客户时常向他提出的 要求。 快车道——蒂姆·亚当的当代中国故事 克莱尔谷著名的葡萄酒生产商蒂姆·亚当 （Tim Adams）已经迈上了快速扩张之路。他立 志要在五年时间内将名下的米克先生（Mr Mick） 葡萄酒出货量提高到10万箱，而他也十分了解这 个市场。 尽管如此，他发现“在中国扎根要比在其它地 方花费更长的时间”。目前他名下葡萄酒在中国 的销量约在3.6万瓶左右；亚当计划将销量提升 10倍。 因此，他正在采取一些非常之道推动其未来增 长，也就是与澳大利亚证交所上市公司 SmartTrans Holdings（SMA）开展合作；后 者已经携手中国移动、中国联通、中国电信、银 联和支付宝开发出一个面向中国市场的移动线上 计费和支付平台。 SMA所采取的方法是利用中国移动和中国电信 来推广自己的合作品牌，并通过佣金和交易费来 获得收益。 未来营销之道 亚当正通过赞助57Films所摄制的、与中国文化、 烹饪和葡萄酒消费相关的系列电视节目当中的一 集来推动他的计划；该节目将通过中央电视台以 及QTV播出，并将很快现身澳大利亚第九频道。 专注于中国接受度最高的线上销售模式，以及 与商品支付相关的安全性和便利性需求，蒂姆· 亚当的方法有望成为中国未来的营销范。微信支 付在中国的大规模应用正是这种趋势的充分体现。 但是，休斯·库斯伯森的最后忠告是：“如果 任何人告诉你他们知道中国葡萄酒市场发生的一 切，那他们一定是在开玩笑。” “没有人知道一切。要想了解，你必须要离开 ‘舒适区’，但这在一生当中的某个特定阶段或许 并非坏事。” H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 81
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By Will McCosker, International Partner and Registered Foreign Lawyer for King & Wood Mallesons, in Shanghai, China 作者：威尔·麦克斯克， 麦考威系金杜律师事务所（中国） 上海分所的国际合伙人与注册外国律师
澳大利亚的单位信托
UNDERSTANDING AUSTRALIAN UNIT TRUSTS
If you’re thinking of investing in Australian property, it’s important to gain a thorough understanding of unit trusts, which are the dominant investment vehicle, Will McCosker writes. Will MsCosker指出，如果您正在考虑投资澳大利亚不动产，深入了解作为主要 投资载体的单位信托（Unit Trust） 至关重要。
T
he vast majority of Australian funds and other investment vehicles are structured as Australian unit trusts. This includes funds that passively invest in property. There are two main reasons for this: firstly, to allow for income tax considerations; and secondly, to offer flexibility and make capital return easier. Provided a trust is not a “public trading trust”1, it will generally be tax transparent, meaning that income should “flow through” and be taxed in the hands of the investors, not in the trustee. If permitted under the relevant trust deed, units can be redeemed and the trustee can make capital distributions without approvals and other procedures that are required when a company reduces its capital. It is possible for a trust that is a “public unit trust”, that carries on eligible investment business, to still be treated as tax transparent in Australia. 1.
在澳大利亚 ，那些投资业务符合既定条件的“公共单位信托”仍可能适用税 收直通原则。 1.
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Globally, trusts are the most common investment vehicle for property investment funds, hence the term “real estate investment trusts” or “REITs”.
WHAT IS AN AUSTRALIAN UNIT TRUST?
Under Australian law, a trust is not a separate legal entity, it cannot hold property in its own name, nor can it contract or sue in its own name. Instead, the trustee of a trust is
A trust cannot hold property in its own name. 商道
绝
大多数澳大利亚基金和其它投资载体均已 转型成为单位信托，包括那些被动投资于 不动产的基金。 这种转型主要源于两大原因：1）与所得税相 关的考虑；2）提供更大的灵活性，更易获取资 本回报。 如果一家信托机构不属于“公共交易型信 托”，则其通常可适用税收直通原则(Tax Transparent)，也就是说该信托机构的收入将直 接交到投资者的手上，再由税务部门对投资者另 行征税（而非受托人）。 当相关信托契约当中允许之时，投资者可以 赎回信托单位，并且受托人可以在无需取得 批准以及办理企业减资所需其它手续的情况下派 发资本。 从全球范围来看，信托是各大不动产投资基金 最为常见的投资载体，因此其也被称之为“不动 产投资信托”。
什么是澳大利亚单位信托？ 依照澳大利亚法律，信托不属于一个独立法 人，因此无法以自己的名义持有不动产，也不能 以自己的名义订立合同或者发起诉讼。相反，信
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responsible for operating and managing the activities of the trust. The trustee: • holds the trust property (either directly or through a custodian) for the benefit of the trust’s investors; and • contracts on behalf of the trust. A “unit trust” is a trust where the trust deed provides that the beneficial interest is unitised so that a person’s entitlement to participate in the trust’s income and/or capital is proportionate to the number of units they hold. This is broadly comparable to a company in which shareholders’ entitlements to income and capital are determined by reference to the number of shares held. The legal features of an Australian unit trust are conceptually similar to those of a Cayman Islands limited partnership, with the role of the trustee of an Australian unit trust being broadly analogous to the role of the general partner of a Cayman Islands limited partnership. This is illustrated in the comparison table on the following spread.
WHAT DOES THE TRUSTEE DO?
The trustee is responsible for operating and managing the activities of the trust – it holds the property of the trust (either directly or through a custodian) for the benefit of the trust’s investor beneficiaries. The trustee owes a number of fiduciary duties to the trust’s investors, under both Australian statute and general law. The trustee may delegate performance of its duties to third parties (eg, investment managers, administrators etc). The trust deed for a unit trust generally sets out provisions governing the establishment, terms and administration of the trust, such as the appointment, resignation and removal of the trustee and the rights and duties of the trustee. Other provisions it may determine include: • the right of the trustee to delegate in whole or in part the discharge of its duties or the exercise of its powers; 商道
托受托人仅负责信托的经营与管理。该受托人： • 代表信托投资者持有信托地产（直接持有或者 通过保管人持有）；并且 • 代表信托机构签署各项合约。 • 在“单位信托”当中，信托契约规定受益人 的权益将会被拆分成多个单位，这样投资者 在信托收入及/或资本当中所占的份额将取决 于其所持有的单位数量。这一点与公司大体相 似，即股东在公司收入和资本当中所占的份 额取决于其所持有的股份数量。 从概念上看，澳大利亚单位信托的法律特点与 开曼群岛有限合伙公司较为相似；其受托人的职 责范围类似于开曼群岛有限合伙公司中的普通合 伙人。下面的对比表中对此进行了详细的说明。 受托人要做什么？ 受托人负责运营和管理信托的各项活动——代 表该信托投资者的利益来持有该信托的地产（直 接持有或者通过保管人持有）。 依照澳大利亚法规和一般法规定，受托人向信 托投资者承担着一系列的信托义务。受托人也可 以将这些义务委托给第三方来履行（比如投资经 理、管理人员等等）。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 8 3
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CAYMAN ISLANDS LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
AUSTRALIAN UNIT TRUST
A partnership is operated and managed by its general partner 合伙公司
A unit trust is operated and managed by its trustee
YES
Not a separate legal entity
Not a separate legal entity
YES
General partner contracts on behalf of the partnership
Trustee contracts on behalf of the unit trust 受托人代表单位信托签订合约
YES
General partner holds property of the partnership on trust for the partners
Trustee holds the property of the trust on trust for the benefit of the investors
YES
开曼群岛有限合伙公司 由普通合伙人负责运营和管理
不属于独立法人实体
SIMILAR?
澳大利亚单位信托
是否相似？
单位信托由受托人负责运营和管理
不属于独立法人实体
普通合伙人代表合伙公司签订合约
合伙人委托普通合伙人代表合伙公司持有地产
投资者委托受托人持有信托地产
Limited partners generally have limited liability
Unitholders generally have limited liability 信托单位持有人通常担负有限责任
YES
General partner has unlimited liability, but has the benefit of an indemnity out of the assets of the partnership
Trustee has unlimited liability, but has the benefit of an indemnity out of the assets of the trust 受托人拥有无限责任，但可以利用信托机构的
YES
Generally operates a capital account for each limited partner to manage allocations between partners 一般情况下为每个有限合伙人设立一个
Generally allocations between unitholders are based on the number of units held 一般情况下单位持有人之间的资金派发由其所持有的单位
NO
有限合伙人通常担负有限责任
普通合伙人拥有无限责任，但可以利用合伙公司的资产做出赔偿
资本账目，籍此来管理合伙人之间的资金派发
• the power of the trustee to administer or to dispose of trust assets, to create security interests in the trust assets, or to acquire new assets; • the trustee’s powers of investment and borrowing; • restrictions upon the duration of the trust, and upon the power to accumulate the income of the trust; • the relationships between the trustee and the beneficiaries, including the personal liability of the trustee to the beneficiaries; • the variation or termination of the trust; and • the distribution of the trust assets.
SUB–TRUSTS
It is common for Australian property funds to use a wholly-owned subsidiary trust (ie, a “sub-trust”) to acquire and hold each investment. The reasons for this include the requirement to quarantine legal liabilities associated with each investment and to facilitate greater flexibility for exiting the investment.
For certain operating businesses, a company might be used as the holding entity, often by way of a stapled structure. 2.
某些特定的业务可能需要使用公司来作为持有实体（通常为合股结构）。
2.
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资产做出赔偿
数量来决定
To preserve tax flow through status, such a holding vehicle is often structured as a unit trust2.
TAXATION OF AUSTRALIAN UNIT TRUSTS
Generally Australian unit trusts that are not public trading trusts are operated such that the investors are “presently entitled” to all of the distributable income of the trust, with the result that no tax is payable by the trustee or the trust. Instead, investors are proportionately subject to tax on the net (taxable) income of the trust. If investors are not presently entitled to all of the distributable income of the trust, income tax may become payable by the trustee on the net (taxable) income of the trust, calculated with reference to the proportion of the distributable income of the trust to which investors are not presently entitled. An investor’s share of the net income of the trust may consist of various components that have been received or realised by the trust, such as capital gains and dividend income. These components will generally retain their character when passed on to investors. 商道
一家单位信托机构的信托契约当中往往包含与 信托设立、信托条款以及信托管理相关的规定， 比如受托人的任命、辞职与罢免，以及受托人的 各项权利和义务。 其它条款还包括： • 受托人将其全部或部分义务或者权利委托给 第三方履行或者行使的权利； • 受托人管理或者处置信托资产、在信托资产上 设立担保权益或者收购新资产的权力； • 受托人的投资权或者借贷权； • 对信托持续期限的各种限制，以及对积累信 托收入之权力的各种限制； • 受托人与受益人之间的关系，包括受托人对受 益人所应担负的个人责任； • 信托的变更或终止；以及 • 信托资产的分配。 子信托 澳大利亚不动产基金往往会利用一家全资附属 信托（也即“子信托”）来收购并持有各项投资。 这是因为政府规定每项投资的法律责任之间 需要相互独立；此种机制也为投资的退出提供了 更大的灵活性。 为了保持税收直通身份，此种持有载体通常被 转型为单位信托。 澳大利亚单位信托的征税 一般情况下，对于不属于公共交易型信托的澳
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Certain tax advantages exist for managed investment trusts (MIT). General Trust Law The general law of trusts imposes a number of duties on trustees in their role as fiduciaries. Some of the rights and duties of trustees under general trust law include: Trust losses are generally not directly available to investors in the year they arise. However, it may be possible for those losses to be utilised by the trust in a future income year (subject to satisfying the applicable trust loss utilisation provisions). Distributions to non-Australian resident investors may have tax withheld by the trustee at varying rates.
MANAGED INVESTMENT TRUSTS
大利亚单位信托，当投资者“当前有权享有”该 信托的所有可分配收入之时，受托人或者信托不 需要缴纳任何税收。 相反，对于其从信托所获得的净（应税）收 入，投资者需要按比例缴纳税收。如果投资者当 前无权享有该信托的所有可分配收入，则受托人 需要就该信托的净（应税）收入缴纳所得税；所 得税将按照投资者当前无权享有的信托可分配收 入所占的比例进行计算。 投资者在信托净收入当中所占的比例由该信 托已经收到或者变现的多个部分组成，比如资本 利得以及股息收入。这些部分通常在转移给投资 者之时会保留其原有性质。 信托亏损通常不会在其产生的年度内直接要求 投资者承担。但是，信托机构可能会将该等亏损 结转到未来的某个收入年份（需要满足适用的信 托亏损使用条款要求）。 当向非澳大利亚居民投资者派发收入之时， 受托人可能会按照不同的税率预提相关税款。
There can be certain tax advantages if a trust qualifies as a managed investment trust (MIT) or an attribution managed investment trust (AMIT). Broadly, MITs are a type of unit trust that satisfy a number of qualification requirements. Eligible MITs can irrevocably elect (in an approved form) to apply the capital gains tax (CGT) provisions as the primary code to tax gains and losses on certain eligible assets 管理型投资信托 (primarily, shares, units and real property), 如果某个信托可被列为管理型投资信托 subject to certain requirements. （MIT）或者归属管理型投资信托（AMIT）， Where an MIT elects to treat the trust’s 则其将享有一定的纳税优势。概括而言，管理 eligible assets on capital account, unit holders 型投资信托属于一种满足了一系列资质要求的 may obtain the benefit of the CGT discount and 单位信托。 other tax concessions (where applicable) on 在满足特定要求之后，符合条件的管理型投资 distributions of capital gains they may receive. 信托可以不可撤销地选择（按照一种允许的方 商道
• a duty to act in accordance with the terms of the trust; • a duty to preserve and protect trust property; • fidelity to the trust. This includes: • the duty not to allow a conflict of interest and duty; • the duty not to profit from their position as trustee by obtaining an unauthorised benefit; and • the duty not to allow a conflict of duty and duty. • an equitable duty of care with respect to management and investment; • an equitable duty of care with respect to beneficiaries. This involves the trustee exercising its powers in the best interests of the present and future beneficiaries of the trust; • a duty not to permit others to fetter the trustee’s discretion; and • a duty to keep and render accounts.
H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 8 5
WELCOME LEARNING CURVE
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澳大利亚中国总商会 新年贺词 时光流转，我们即将再次并肩走进心怀希翼、瞻望 （ACCI）分别成功签署了备忘录，我们将在慈善项 美好的新年时刻。值此新年来临之际，我谨代表澳 目、中澳企业之间加强行业对接等合作，充分利用 大利亚中国总商会全体理事向广大会员致以节日的 中澳经济的互补性，为中澳企业扩大和深化合作带 来更多的商机。同时，总商会宣布了将设立“总商 问候和新年的祝福！ 会慈善基金”，体现了总商会及其会员服务中澳民 2016年，是非凡的一年，也是难忘的一年！在驻 众与社区的承诺。 澳使（领）馆、经商处（室）的亲切指导和关怀 下，通过全体会员的共同努力，我们的会员不断发 2016年，在美丽的悉尼，我们隆重庆祝了总商会 展壮大，悉尼、墨尔本、布里斯班和珀斯四个分会 成立10周年，总商会首次向全澳政商界重要人士 会员总数已达301名。我们顺利完成了总商会第四 展示了总商会中资企业的风采，呈现了总商会十年 届领导班子的换届选举，成立了法律与合规委员 的辉煌以及蒸蒸日上的成绩，激发了会员的自豪 会、航空专业委员会，为会员企业提供合规、专业 感，较好地提升了总商会形象。 的服务。目前，总商会已形成了多产业、多个专业 委员会齐头并举的战略格局，业务经营遍及全澳， 旧岁已展千重锦，新年更进百尺杆。2017年是充 在扩大澳大利亚当地就业、提升税收收入等方面 满希望、值得期待的一年，是千帆竞发、继往开来 做出了重要的贡献，有力促进了中澳经贸关系的 的一年。在新一届总商会领导班子的正确领导下， 让我们携起手来，团结一心，同心同德，开创总商 发展。 会发展的新篇章！让我们不忘初心，锐意拼搏，砥 2016年，是中澳自贸协定签署的落实年，也是成 砺前行，在新的征程上再接再励！再创辉煌！ 绩斐然的一年! 总商会作为中澳企业交流与合作的 重要桥梁和纽带，不断推动会员企业抓住两国经贸 衷心祝愿大家新年快乐、吉祥如意、幸福安康！ 合作快速发展的契机，发展壮大在澳业务，总商会 和会员的发展已成为中澳互利共赢合作的一个缩 澳大利亚中国总商会会长 胡善君 影。总商会与Blackmores、澳大利亚工商总会 二〇一六年十二月三十一日
www.chinachamber.org.au
128 6| HI GH ER VIEW | HIGHER VIEWBUSINE BUSINSESS S
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15% Distributions by an MIT of certain Australian sourced net income are subject to MIT withholding tax at the rate of 15%. 管理型投资信托机构派发在澳大利 亚产生的特定净收入之时，则该等 收入需要按15%的税率缴纳适用于 管理型投资信托机构的预提税。
Distributions by an MIT of certain Australian sourced net income are subject to MIT withholding tax at the rate of 15 per cent (or ten per cent if the MIT only holds newly constructed energy efficient commercial buildings or assets reasonably incidental to such buildings) if the address of the recipient or place of payment is in a jurisdiction with which Australia has an exchange of information (“EOI”) arrangement on tax matters.
REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS
The trustee of an Australian unit trust is generally required to hold an Australian financial services licence and so be regulated by the Australian securities regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (or “ASIC”). Where a unit trust is offered to retail clients, the trust is generally required to register with ASIC as a “managed investment scheme”, with the Corporations Act governing the operation and regulation of registered managed investment schemes. “Wholesale funds” are not required to register with ASIC and are subject to a more “light touch” regulation in Australia. Retail unit trust offerings generally require the preparation of a regulated offering document, referred to as a “product disclosure statement”. Wholesale unit trust offerings generally do not require the preparation or registration of a product disclosure statement or any other regulated offering document.
式）按照资本利得税制度对对其符合条件的特定 资产（主要是股票、信托单位以及不动产）所产 生的收益和亏损进行征税。 当一家管理型投资信托机构选择按资本项目 来对待其符合条件的信托资产之时，信托单位 持有人将可以获得资本利得税折扣，其所分到 的资本收益也可享受其它税收减免优惠（当适 用之时）。 当一家管理型投资信托机构派发在澳大利亚产 生的特定净收入之时，如果受益人的地址或者支 付地点位于澳大利亚与之签署了税收信息交换协 定的某个国家或地区，则该等收入需要按15%的 税率缴纳适用于管理型投资信托机构的预提税 （如果管理型投资信托机构仅持有新建成的高能 效商业建筑或者该等建筑所合理附属的资产，则 可适用10%的税率）。
信托法常识 一般而言，得根据信托法，受托人需 要承担一系列的义务。受托人依照一 般信托法所享有以及履行的某些权利 和义务包括如下： • 依照信托条款行事的义务； • 维护和保护信托财产的义务； • 对信托忠诚的义务，包括： • 避免利益和权责冲突的义务；
监管要求 澳大利亚单位信托机构的受托人通常需要拥 有澳大利亚金融服务执照，因此其也受到澳大利 亚证券监管部门——澳大利亚证券与投资委员会 （ASIC）——的管束。 当单位信托系面向零售客户提供之时，该等信 托通常需要在澳大利亚证券与投资委员登记为一 个“管理型投资计划”；已登记在案的各种管理 型投资计划的运营和监管将适用《公司法》当中 的规定。“批发基金”不需要向澳大利亚证券与 投资委员会登记，并且适用一种“低干涉”的监 管方式。 零售单位信托的发行通常需要准备一份受到 监管的发行文件，也即“产品披露声明”。批发 单位信托的发行一般不需要准备或登记产品披露 声明，或者任何其它受到监管的发行文件。 商道
• 不凭借受托人的身份来获益（比 如分取一份未经授权的利益）的 义务；以及 • 避免权责冲突的义务。 • 衡平法上与管理和投资相关的谨慎 义务。 • 衡 平 法 上 与 受 益 人 相 关 的 谨 慎 义 务，即要求受托人依照本信托当前 和 未来受益人的最大利益来行使其各 项权力。 • 不得允许他人干预受托人裁量权的 义务；以及 • 保持账目记录和交验的义务；
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SUMMER OF CRICKET
HIGHER LIFE 气派生活
LIFESTYLE, SHOPPING, FASHION, LUXURY 时尚生活、奢华购物、品味时尚、奢侈单品
现代经典 RULE THE ROOST 江诗丹顿（VACHERON CONSTANTIN）2017 METIERS D’ART 艺术大师系列中国十二生肖传奇之鸡年以中国传 统工艺剪纸为 灵感。凭借雕刻大师和珐琅大师的倾力合作，表盘上带有以手工 雕 刻而成的公鸡图案。腕 表限 量发行十二枚，均采用24 6 0 G 4 机 芯以 及镌 刻日内瓦印记，彰显了精 湛高级 腕 表的无 尽风 采。 玫瑰金售价：156,600澳元；铂金售价：190,200澳元。
The ancient art of paper cutting has inspired Vacheron Constantin’s 2017 Metiers d’Art The Legend of the Chinese Zodiac. The dial appropriately features a rooster that has been created by master engravers and enamellers. Bearing the Hallmark of Geneva and Caliber 2460 G4, the timepiece is limited to 12 pieces. Pink Gold $156,600, Platinum $190,200. vacheron-constantin.com
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奢侈品天地
MOST WANTED
Everything luxury — from one-off designer pieces to lavish cars 从设计名家的限量版精品到新款 豪华车。
HELLO, OLD FRIEND
NEW ON THE BLOCK
这款车型有别于一般的本田汽车。全新本田NSX，一款售价42万澳元的超级跑 车，彻底颠覆了本田理智、古板的产品形象。NSX最早诞生于1990年，2016年推出 奢华瑞士腕表制造商FRANCK MULLER在悉尼的首 的NSX运用混合动力技术，配备一台3.5升V6双涡轮发动机和三台电动机， 成就了 家精品店现已开张。面积75平方米的精品店位于中央 NSX的全时四驱加速性能和惊人的转弯平衡能力。 商务区的中心,繁忙的国王街(KING STREET)上。 This isn’t a typical Honda. This is the new Honda NSX, the $420,000 supercar that bucks the Luxury Swiss watchmaker, Franck Muller, has unveiled its first manufacturer’s trend for sensible products. Originally launched in 1990, The 2016 iteration boutique in Sydney. Located on the busy King Street, the 75sqm sees the NSX transformed into a hybrid sports car powered by 3.5 L twin-turbo V6 engine boutique is situated right in the heart of the CBD. 147 King Street, and three electric motors for all-wheel drive acceleration and astounding cornering balance. franckmuller.com honda.com.au
SMOOTH TRAVEL
PERFECT PAIR
轻便奢华的杰尼亚 （ERMENEGILDO ZEGNA）真皮 手提行李箱，4个轮子能支持360 度旋转，并且使用记忆棉材质技术 以及深蓝色小牛真皮革，是出游的 最佳伙伴。售价：3,855澳元。
西装的配饰跟西装同样重要。爱马仕（HERMÈS） PARALLÈLE纯银袖扣能完美搭配任何一件西装。 经典爱马仕“H”设计，低调却不失奢华。 售价：1,105澳元。 The finishing touches on a suit are just as important as the suit itself – and Hermès’ Parallèle cufflinks
Ermenegildo Zegna’s ultra-light
in sterling silver will complete any ensemble. The
leather trolley is equipped with
design subtly and elegantly refers to the symbolic
four multi-directional silent wheels,
Hermès “H”. $1105, australia.hermes.com
memory foam shape technology and navy blue natural-grain calfskin, making it the ultimate travel companion. $3855, zegna.com.au
WRITE ON 万宝龙（MONTBLANC）生肖传说雄鸡书写工具系列2017的 925纯银笔帽上镌刻有雄鸡形象。金鸡版全球限量512支（幸 运数字8的立方数）。生肖传说雄鸡钢笔售价：POA。 Montblanc’s Signs & Symbols 2017 pen has a hand-engraved silver cap of the Rooster. There will be a limited edition of 512 (lucky number eight, cubed). The Legend of Zodiacs The Rooster Fountain Pen 512, $POA, montblanc.com
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Q&A 问答 SAVED BY THE BELL
忠于其航空起源，柏莱士 （BELL&ROSS）推出标志性的BR 01 腕表，直径为39毫米，是品牌旗下系 列中尺寸最小、最高雅的型号。BR S 玫瑰金39毫米售价：20,650澳元。
OLE LYNGGAARD COPENHAGEN首席执 行官索伦·林格德（SØREN LYNGGAARD） 分享他对高级珠宝及其加工工艺的热爱，并讲 述家庭理想对于公司的重要性。 Søren Lynggaard, CEO of Danish fine jewellers Ole Lynggaard, Purveyor to the Danish Royal Court, speaks of his father, his sister, and the importance of family in business.
Faithful to their aeronautical origins, Bell & Ross have released a version of their iconic model, the BR 01, in its smallest and most elegant version: the BR S Rose Gold 39mm. $20,650, lionbrandsaustralia.com.au
OLE LYNGGAARD发展历程……ON THE HISTORY OF OLE LYNGGAARD... 我的父亲奥勒（OLE）是一名珠宝匠人，曾经在巴黎、 纽约、波斯和欧洲各地工作，从各种文化中积累了诸多 想法和灵感。回到丹麦之后，他决定创立自己的公司， 并且独自经营。我们几个孩子从小就是公司的重要部 分，帮助父亲组织活动，进行销售，也在工作室做些工 作。我的父亲现在已经80岁了，他和我的姐姐仍然是公 司的主要设计师。这是全家人的事业。 My father Ole spent years as a jeweller working across the world in Paris, New York, Persia and all through Europe, and when he came back to Denmark his head was exploding with ideas and inspiration from all these cultures. He wanted to start this company as a oneman show. Growing up as kids we were a big part of the company, and today, my father, at 80, and my sister are still the main designers. It’s very much a family business.
RED ALERT 新年穿新鞋带您步步高升。古驰 （GUCCI）真皮马衔扣平跟船时 尚有型，全新推出幸运红色。 售价：785澳元。 As the new year begins, why not get off on the right foot? Gucci’s stylish and comfy Leather Horsebit loafers are now available in a lucky red. $785, gucci.com/au
FOR THE MEN
灵感源自博柏利标志性黑色 TRENCH风衣以及对比性鲜明的 伦敦，全新MR. BURBERRY博柏利 先生男士淡香水，保存传统却不刻 板；优雅不失时尚之风。四个容量 大小供选择，售价：72澳元起。 Introducing the new fragrance for men, inspired by both the iconic black trench coat and by London – a city of great contrasts. Mr. Burberry is traditional yet irreverent, elegant without being pristine. Available in four sizes from $72, au.burberry.com
商道
家庭的重要性……ON THE IMPORTANCE OF FAMILY... 我们是一个家族企业，同时也是一个以设计为重的企 业。这一点在企业的发展历程中极其重要。我们的设计 不是为了取悦当下，而是面向未来。我们的目标并非营 利，而是打造品牌。这是我们家庭的声誉，希望在多年 之后仍能够引以为傲。 We’re a family-driven company but also design driven. This has been important for the way our company has evolved. We’re making designs for tomorrow rather than catering to the now. Our ambitions and goals are not financial but about brand building. It’s our family name, and it’s something we want to be proud of and last for many years. 设计灵感……ON DESIGN INSPIRATION... 不管是在度假当中，还是带孩子到森林里玩儿的时候， 我们发现设计灵感的慧眼似乎无处不在。我的姐姐和父 亲时刻都在观察周围的事物，从自然和人那里获得灵 感。父亲总说，他是为我的母亲而设计。我们的珠宝不 是迎合潮流之物，而是永恒佳作。 Design ideas come from everywhere, whether it’s on holidays or in the forest with your kids. My sister and father are always getting inspiration from nature and people. Our jewellery is not fashion jewellery; ours is timeless.
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STYLE 时尚单品 The latest in fashion from the world’s biggest designer brands 来自一些世界最大的设计师 品牌最新的时尚单品。
Milana, $59.95, milana-shoes.com
Gucci, $POA, gucci.com
Burberry, $POA, burberry.com
Ermenegildo Zegna, $2840 zegna.com Burberry, $1150, burberry.com
新春密码
CODE RED
Montblanc, $POA, montblanc.com
Add a splash of colour to liven up your dinner party attire IWC, $6100, iwc.com
Burberry, $3095, burberry.com
Gucci, $785, gucci.com
Hugo Boss, $POA, hugoboss.com
Lanvin, $150, lanvin.com Gucci, $505, gucci.com
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Developing the future of Australia China business
The ACBC is the premier business organisation in Australia dedicated to promoting and developing two-way trade, investment, and economic cooperation with China.
Become a member today www.acbc.com.au ACT
NT
NSW
QLD
TAS
SA
VIC
WA
WINE 佳酿 A tour of some of Australia’s finest wine (and whisky!) regions 澳大利亚一些最好的葡萄酒 产区之旅。
Tasmania’s Bill Lark of Lark Distillery
AGE IS NO BARRIER
Whisky is stretching its legs across the globe, with Continental Europe and even Australia taking the fight to the Scotch single malts. While the Irish, Japanese, Canadians and Americans may argue – and with good reason – for many, Scotch has and always will be the final word in whisky. And yet it might not be too long before we start seeing whiskies from Scandinavia, France, Germany and even Australia regularly populating our shelves with their own expressions, and not just blends either. Single malts to compete with the Scottish from Sweden? It could happen. And if you try Mackmyra, you might just think it already has. Why are we seeing something of a distiller revolution? Because the vast demand for aged Scotch single malt has meant the whisky superpowers have been forced to produce bottles with – shock horror – no age on it. Non-age statement whiskies, some very experimental, are pouring out of the likes 94 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S
Also in Tasmania, Nant Distillery is producing successful, unashamedly young whiskies
of Glenfiddich. This means the snobbery attached with bottles not adorned with a number is reduced and people are starting to realise that a whisky doesn’t have to age for 15 years to be any good. The knock-on effect is young distilleries can start bottling after three years and, if it’s any good, they won’t be hampered by a digit-free bottle. It’s much easier to start a whisky business knowing you’ll have a product in three to five years rather than having to sit and watch it age for a decade. Forever the upstart, Australia is among those nations producing wonderful, even if on occasion frightfully young, whiskies. The likes of Lark, Nant and New World Whisky Company are among those to look out for. Age is just a number, remember, and in the case of whisky, it’s definitely worth looking past the birth certificate. 商道
Part of the new wave: New World Whisky Company
Lark is often hailed as the Godfather of Australian whisky
“Age is just a number. In the case of whisky, it’s definitely worth looking past the birth certificate”
BEST OF THE BARREL First Distillery First Distillery Latest Release by New World Whisky Distillery has a sweet aromatic nose and is a treat on the palate. $181, newworldwhisky.com.au
Lark Lark Single Malt Whisky Cask Strength 58% is smooth and rich, driven by malty alcohol. From $55, larkdistillery.com
Nant Nant’s Sherry Wood Single Cask 63% is matured in an American oak sherry cask that is sweet with touches of orange and jaffa. $255, nant.com.au
酒香不必陈年 威士忌在全球掀起阵阵热潮，欧洲大陆、甚至澳大利亚都把目光 投向了苏格兰单一麦芽威士忌。 在爱尔兰、日本、加拿大和美国，人们或许会说 苏格兰威士忌现在是而且将永远是最好、最完美 的威士忌。很多人也同意这种说法，并且理由十 足。但是，用不了多久我们就会看到产自斯堪的 纳维亚、法国、德国、甚至澳大利亚的威士忌出 现在酒架上，各有特色，绝非混酿。能和瑞典产 苏格兰威士忌相媲美的单一麦芽威士忌？您如果 品尝过Mackmyra威士忌，这就不仅是一种可 能，而是一个事实了。 这场蒸馏革命缘何而起？面对陈年苏格兰单一 麦芽威士忌的巨大市场需求，威士忌巨头们不得 不生产没有标注酿造年份的威士忌。 Glenfiddich等酒厂源源不断地产出没有标注
酿造年份的威士忌，其中一些颇有试探市场的意 思。这也意味着过分看重酒标上数字的人正在减 少，人们开始意识到威士忌不必陈年15年以上也 可以很好喝。在这种冲击下，年轻的蒸馏师们只 需3年就能开始装瓶，只要酒好，他们并不介意 酒标上不写年份。生产威士忌再也不必坐等10 年，而是3、5年就可以开始生产，这让从事威士 忌生意容易许多。 澳大利亚继续发挥弄潮儿精神，生产出 绝佳的浅龄威士忌，尽管有时浅得让人震 惊。Lark、Nant和NewWoldWhiskyCompany 等酒厂都是其中的佼佼者。请记住，年份只不过 是一个数字，就威士忌而言，那绝不是最重要的。 商道
First Distillery New World Whisky Distillery出 产的First Distillery散发出香甜的 气味，为味蕾带来愉悦的享受。 售价：181澳元起。
Lark 酒精度为58％的Lark单一麦芽 威士忌口感柔顺丝滑，味道浓 郁。售价：55澳元起。
Nant 在美国橡木雪莉桶陈年的Nant Sherry Wood Single Cask威士 忌酒精浓度为63％，味道香甜 并带有一丝香橙和雅法橘的味 道。售价：255澳元。
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RESTAURANTS 餐厅 Fine dining in Sydney, Melbourne, Shanghai and Beijing 悉尼、墨尔本、上海及北京的高端餐厅。
在这个美食潮流快速占据社交 媒体的时代，秉承传统、以菜品 和装饰致敬单纯旧日时光的 餐厅已不多见。Ricky & Pinky位 于费兹罗（Fitzroy）Builders Arms Hotel酒店中心，是著名主 厨安德鲁·麦康奈尔（Andrew McConnell）最新投资建成的餐 厅。关闭Moon Under Water酒 吧后，麦康奈尔把目光投向了中 餐馆，希望保持纯正的地方特 色。这里有醉鸡、麻婆豆腐和XO 酱蛤蜊等传统菜品，也有油炸甜 甜圈等出人意料的惊喜之作。
MELBOURNE 墨尔本
NOD TO THE PAST In a time when food trends are taking social media by storm, it’s not often you find restaurants drawing on the past, creating menus and décor that are a nod to simpler old days. Ricky & Pinky, at the heart of the Builders Arms Hotel in Fitzroy, is Andrew McConnell’s latest venture. After shutting Moon Under Water, McConnell set his sights on opening a Chinese Restaurant that would stay true to regional cuisine. Labelling itself a traditional Chinese restaurant, you’ll be happy to find classics like drunken chicken, mapo tofu and pippies in XO sauce on the menu. You’ll also find a few unexpected items such as fired doughnuts. buildersarmshotel.com.au 96 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S
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SYDNEY 悉尼
LOST TREASURE
Rozelle Tramway Depot最初建于1904年，如 今，这座往昔的工业建筑已被重新修葺，变成了 欧式美食城，更名为Tramsheds Harold Park。 这里聚集了十余家餐厅、咖啡馆、酒吧和商家， 您可以尽情品尝当地风味和国际美食。 Originally built in 1904 as the Rozelle Tramway Depot, the industrial building of yesteryear has been fully restored and transformed into a European-inspired food hall. Now known as Tramsheds Harold Park, there are more than ten restaurants, cafés, bars and providers to get a taste of local and international delicacies. tramshedsharoldpark.com.au
BEIJING 北京
MOSTO
A blend of South American and European flavours, Mosto opened in 2008 in the heart of Sanlitun. The aim of Mosto is to not intimidate, so the design of the space is minimalist chic. Expect plenty of fresh seafood and South American spices. mostobj.com
这里是我们前三名选择北京最好的国际餐厅... Here are our top three picks for Beijing’s best International restaurants...
融合南美和欧洲风味的Mosto于2008年在 三里屯的核心地带开业。餐厅的室内极致 简单的设计营造出一种非常轻松宽敞的就 餐气氛，为食客提供多种新鲜海产和极具 南美风味的菜肴。
CAPITAL M
As the third restaurant in the M Family, Capital M holds the group’s three key ideals at its core; iconic views, top-shelf ingredients and an impressively sleek interior. The menu capitalises on the new trend of fine dining European, with a twist of Aussie flair thrown in for good measure. m-restaurantgroup.com
TEMPLE RESTAURANT
Sitting down to a modern European 5-star meal inside a 600-year-old temple complex is nothing short of memorable. You’ll be more than impressed with the European French menu, which changes seasonally. trb-cn.com
前门M餐厅（Capital M）是M Family的 第三间餐厅。没间餐厅都以3个关键理念 作为核心：标志性景观、顶级食材和令人 印象深刻的现代时尚室内设计。前门M餐 厅在追求精致西餐新潮流的同时，额外融 入了澳大利亚风味。
在拥有600年历史的寺庙庭院中享用现代五 星级西餐绝对让人毕生难忘。其季节性的法 式美食菜单更会令你眼前一亮。
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HOTELS 酒店
UP AND COMING 即将来袭
Private beaches, personal butlers and sky-high lounges – we’ve picked out some of the most luxurious hotels Australia and China have to offer 私家海滩、私人管家服务和高入云端的餐厅—— 我们精心细选澳中两地最能为您带来奢华体验的酒店。
GRAND DESIGN The QT Sydney is iconic for its quirky use of interior design. Colours are loud and patterns, where used, are bold. It’s not everyone’s cup of tea, but if you can appreciate something different to what you’re used to you’ll love it. Or perhaps you’d prefer their Melbourne offering. Their Victorian franchise still has that element of whimsical charm, but it’s more refined and industrial. There’s a calmness to it that Sydney is missing. The 11-storey concrete and stone modernist building, on the site of the old Greater Union cinema, boasts 188 rooms and a floor dedicated to Pascale, the hotel’s signature bar and grill, with an open kitchen, glassed-in wine rooms and expansive, luxuriously upholstered lounges. There’s a ground-floor cafe and aperitivo bar called The Cake Shop, a rooftop bar, Japanese-Korean laneway called Hot Sauce and, beside it, a shop that sells handcrafted Japanese knives. Guest rooms are spacious, offering lots of light and sweeping city views. From $280 per night, qthotelsandresorts.com
JW MARRIOTT CHENGDU
悉尼QT因其独特的室内设计而闻名遐 迩。鲜艳的色彩搭配大胆的图案，虽 然并不能迎合所有人的口味，但是如 果能欣赏到它与以往的不同之处，您 便会爱上它。或许您会更喜欢墨尔本 QT的设计，独特的维多利亚风格仍然 保持着异想天开的元素，但却更加精
成都茂业JW万豪酒店 设有345间客房的全新五星级酒店坐拥成都 最新地标——四川省图书馆和成都博物馆。 The 345-room 5-star luxury hotel overlooks some of Chengdu’s newest landmarks, the Sichuan Library and Chengdu Museum. marriott.com.au
妙、更具工业气息，设计散发出的宁 静氛围正是悉尼QT所不具备的。这座 11层楼高的现代主义建筑位于古老的 Greater Union电影院的旧址之上， 共有188间客房，新古典主义的地板、 标志性的酒吧和烤架、开放式厨房、 玻璃红酒室以及宽敞奢华的软座休息 室，应有尽有。酒店底层设有咖啡馆 和阿普瑞提酒吧The Cake Shop，屋 顶设有日韩巷道酒吧Hot Sauce，旁 边还有出售手工制日式刀具的商店。 客房非常宽敞，照明良好，城市美景 一览无余。每晚280澳元起。
THE SANYA EDITION 三亚艾迪逊酒店 酒店内设有512间宽敞的客房，其中包括17 座设有私家游泳池私人别墅。 The opulent resort features 512 residential-style guestrooms and an additional 17 hotel villas nestled into a terraced hillside, each with a private pool. editionhotels.com/sanya
HOTEL JEN BEIJING 新国贸饭店 北京国贸综合大厦的1-22层将是今旅酒店集 团在中国开设的第三家酒店，位于北京中央 商务区朝阳区。 In the first 22 floors of the China World Trade Centre in Beijing , this will be the third Hotel Jen to open in mainland China. hoteljen.com
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Bank of China, Your first choice for RMB business.
“In the spirit forged by a hundred years of international experience and at the forefront of today’s global economy and finance, Bank of China provides a broad range of RMB products and services tailored to your needs offering new solutions to reinvigorate your global trade and investment activities through our global payments network, abundance of financial products and consummate professional expertise.” 中国银行传承百年国际业务精髓,把握全球经济金融脉搏,以遍布全球的清 算网络、丰富的金融产品和精湛的专业技术,为您量身打造综合性人民币 业务服务方案,为您的全球贸易和投资活动提供新的选择,注入新的活力。 商道
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Real Market Benefit
Westpac is at the forefront of RMB internationalisation, to support growth in the China corridor for Australasian companies. We understand how important access to the Greater China market is for our customers. That’s why we’re at the forefront of RMB internationalisation.
Together with being a leading Market-Maker for NZD/CNY1 and a leader in Trade Finance2, with an AUD/CNY Market-Maker licence, a China Derivatives licence, and strength in local market expertise, we’re supporting more customers doing business in China. We’re also sharing our insights through publications such as the Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey, the Westpac-BREE China Resources Quarterly and WIB IQ, to help our customers make informed decisions about the future of their business. To discover how Westpac can provide your business with greater trade and financial markets access in China, contact our RMB Business Specialist, Natalie Antoine at nantoine@westpac.com.au
No.1
Maker
Foundational
No.1
Leader
No.1
NZD/CNY Market-Maker in China Best Trade Finance Bank in Australia2
AUD/CNY Market-Maker in China Ranked as the world’s most sustainable bank3
Participant in the Sydney Offshore RMB Hub
Best Local Trade Finance Bank in Australia4
Source: 1. China Foreign Exchange Trade System as at 31 May 2016. 2. The Asian Banker Transaction Banking Awards 2016. 3. Dow Jones Sustainability Index 2015, 2014 and seven previous years. 4. GTR Asia Leaders in Trade, 2015 adjudicated by the GTR Editorial Board. Westpac Institutional Bank is a division of Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 AFSL 2337 14 (“Westpac”). The services and products described in this material are provided in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation and may not be available in all countries. New Zealand: In New Zealand Westpac Institutional Bank refers to the brand under which products and services are provided by either Westpac or Westpac New Zealand Limited (NZBN 942 903 432 4622) (“WNZL”). Any product or service made available by WNZL does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WNZL). Neither Westpac nor its other subsidiaries guarantee or otherwise support the performance of WNZL in respect of any such product or service. WNZL is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of Australian prudential standards. The current disclosure statements for the New Zealand branch of Westpac and WNZL can be obtained at the internet address www.westpac.co.nz. Both entities are registered banks in New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. U.K.: Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106), and is authorised and regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority in Australia. WBC is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority. WBC is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority in the United Kingdom. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. China, Hong Kong, Singapore and India: Westpac Singapore Branch holds a wholesale banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Westpac Hong Kong Branch holds a banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Westpac Hong Kong branch also holds a licence issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) for Type 1 and Type 4 regulated activity. Westpac Shanghai and Beijing Branches hold banking licences and are subject to supervision by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC). Westpac Mumbai Branch holds a banking licence from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and is subject to regulation and supervision by the RBI. U.S.: Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally licenced branch, regulated by the Office of Comptroller of the Currency. Westpac is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a Swap Dealer, but is neither registered as, or affiliated with, a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US CFTC. Westpac Capital Markets, LLC (‘WCM’), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Westpac, is a brokerdealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (‘the Exchange Act’) and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA’). WBC774_HBV_A1
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