Higher View Business - Issue 6 by Citrus Media

HIGHERVIEWBUSINESS.COM.AU

I S S UE S IX. APRIL 20 16

HIGHER VIEW 商道

#06

MOVING BEYOND RESOURCES █

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China’s love affair with wine Taking the battle to Uber What One Belt One Road means for Australia

矿业之外的商机独步华夏的葡萄酒优步悠着行

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“一带一路”为澳大利亚所带来的机遇

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1966 全历表，精钢表壳，40 毫米

GP 芝柏表并不神秘，只是拥有超过两个世纪的手工艺历史以及对完美的永恒承诺。

GP 3300 机芯全历显示

Shop7, 101 Collins Street Melbourne VIC 3000 Phone: +61 3 9650 9288

Ground Floor, Crown River Walk Southbank VIC 3006 Phone: +61 3 9690 2566

WELCOME

欢迎

LUXURY IN THE AIR MATCHED ONLY ON THE GOUND WITH OUR FREE LIMOUSINE SERVICE FOR CORPORATE CLIENTS* * When travelling Business or First Class

AU.CEAIR.COM

欢迎辞——中国东方航空公司

欢迎辞——澳大利亚中国总商会

对于中澳两地的空中飞人来说, 有个好消息：东航自豪地宣布，我们将在圣诞假期前，开通三趟的布里斯班和上海之间的直飞航班。从2016年11月起，每周将有三个定期直飞上海和有“阳光之州”之间的航班。中国东航航班将使用最新的A330“A33E”的飞机提供2-2-2 配置的商务舱座位，并有共计30张可以完全平躺的床。澳洲航空公司常客会员乘坐这些航班，将可赢取积分和升级待遇。这些从布里斯班出发的新航班将为两国旅客提供更多便利舒适的飞行体验。祝您一路顺风！

* When travelling Business or First Class

首届二十国集团(G20)财政部长和中央银行行长会议历时两天在上海举行。本届论坛是中国中央银行和财政部在全球金融治理界增强其话语权和引导观点形成的重大契机。此外，中国人民银行发布2016年第3号公告，放宽对外国机构投资者进入中国银行同业债券市场的资本流入限制。过去十年里，中国的债券市场不断发展成为全球第三大市场。截至 2014年6月，中国债券市场规模达到35.89万亿人民币或4.24万亿美元。同时，随着中国跻身为世界第二大经济体，其债券市场的潜力也不断壮大。作为致力于促进加强商业联系的非营利机构，我们希望本期《商道》能开启读者视角，从中澳日益密切的友好关系中发掘更多商机。

Welcome from China Eastern Airlines

Welcome from the CCCA

In a win for China-Australia commuters, China Eastern is proud to announce we will launch three scheduled direct flights between Brisbane and Shanghai just in time for the Christmas holiday. From November 2016 there will be three scheduled direct flights each week between Shanghai and the sunshine state. The flights will use China Eastern’s latest A330 ‘A33E’ jets which offer business class seats in a 2-2-2 configuration and a total of 30 fully flat beds. Qantas Frequent Flyer members will be able to earn both points and status credits on these flights. These new flights from Brisbane will offer greater convenience and comfort to travellers between our two countries. Bon voyage!

The first G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting under China’s 2016 G20 Presidency was held in Shanghai for two days. This forum was an opportunity given to China’s Central Bank and Treasury to strengthen their voices and lead opinion formation in the global financial governance community. In addition, the People’s Bank of China published the Announcement of 2016 No.3 to reduce the restrictions on capital inflows applicable to foreign institutional investors accessing China’s interbank bond market. China’s bond market has grown to be the third largest in the world over the past 10 years, which is at about RMB 35.89 trillion or USD 4.24 trillion as of June 2014. Meanwhile, with China being the world’s second largest economy, its bond market has huge potential to grow further. As a non-profit organisation dedicated to fostering strong business links, we hope this edition of Higher View Business opens your mind to the advantages both Australia and China are gaining from the warm relations between our two countries.

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商道

CONTENTS

内容概要

CONTENTS 内容概要 IN THIS ISSUE 38

COVER STORY 封面故事

MOVING BEYOND RESOURCES 资源业以外, 路在何方?

As China shifts from investment-led to consumer-driven growth, Australia will see more business opportunities emerge outside of mining. This is set to drive strong growth in Australia’s exports of high quality goods and services like tourism and education. Australia’s economy is dominated by the services industries, which account for around 70% of GDP and over 80% of employment. Given their collective size, the services sectors are key to rebalancing growth away from mining investment, and especially so for the labour market. But it is worth remembering that Australia’s commodities are still in demand. And, although the combination of a ramp-up in global supply and slower growth in Chinese investment have seen commodity prices fall, Australia is still seeing increased export volumes of key commodities, such as iron ore and LNG, particularly as Australia is a low cost and reliable supplier of these high-grade resources. 随着中国经济发展由投资导向型增长转为消费驱动型增长，澳大利亚将会迎来更多矿业之外的商机。诸如旅游和教育等澳大利亚优质产品和服务的出口也将受到有力推动，获得进一步的发展。澳大利亚经济以服务业为主导，产值约占全国GDP的70%，从业人员占澳洲就业人口的80%。就其整体规模来看，服务业也是避免过于依赖矿业投资实现经济增长再平衡的关键，对劳动力市场尤其如此。另一方面，对澳大利亚商品的需求依然旺盛。虽然在全球供应上升和中国投资增速放缓的联合效应之下，商品价格下降，但是澳大利亚主要商品的出口总额仍在增加，比如铁矿石和液化天然气等。特别是，澳大利亚一向能以低成本提供可靠的供应。

商道

H I G H E R V I EW BUSINE SS | 7

CONTENTS

内容概要

68 76

68 NEW WOMEN, NEW MEN, NEW ECONOMY

76 UBER INTENSE 优步悠着行

新女性、新男性、新经济 The commercial imperative is clear. The marketplace is choosing for us. Across the world we see organisations with more women in leadership roles delivering superior financial returns, increasing productivity and tapping the ingenuity of their people. In this excerpt from their new book New women, new men, new economy, authors Narelle Hooper and Rodin Genoff explain why.

商业上的必要性了然可见，市场正在帮我们做出选择。我们看到全球范围内有众多企业在有更多女性进入领导层之后实现了丰厚的财务回报、提高了生产效率并充分发挥出员工的聪明才智。在《新女性、新男性、新经济》一书中，作者那瑞尔·傅博和罗丁·杰诺夫向我们阐述了为什么一个更包容的企业、社会和国家能够做得更好、更具创造力、释放出新的价值，并实现长期的繁荣。

REGULARS 固定栏目

OPINION 洞见

10 CONTRIBUTORS 投稿人 13 NEWS 新闻 34 GLOBAL SNAPSHOT 全球快照

85 HIGHER LIFE 气派生活 98 LATEST DEALS 最新交易

24 NOT SUCH A HARD LANDING

As penalties increase and the various anti-corruption watchdogs around the world bare their teeth, there is 更加多样化的投资产品、规模较小但更 now a significant focus in both China 具有竞争力的制造业、农产品进口激增、 and Australia on how businesses 更多的电影大片……这些都是麦肯锡荣 conduct themselves. 誉董事戈登·奥尔对2016年的中国做出

中国，猴年展望

自从去年6月上海股市泡沫破灭，如果你相信诸多报纸的头版头条，就意味着接受中国经济正在急速下滑的现实，而澳大利亚所能期待的最好结局就是它能就此止刹，而不要最后“车毁人亡”。但具讽刺意味的是，事实是中国向澳大利亚购买的商品和服务甚至比以前更多了。悉尼科技大学的詹姆斯·罗文森教授如是说。

的几项预测。

Shanghai’s stock market bubble burst last June incited much fearmongering about China’s economy and the consequences for Australia. But the irony is that China is buying more of Australia’s goods and services than ever before, writes UTS Professor James Laurenceson.

以人民币进行商业交易曾多复杂！但是，得益于澳大利亚证券交易所和中国银行联合开发的AUSTRACLEAR结算平台，重重困难已经成为历史。现在，人民币相关交易的结算与澳大利亚国内澳元同样迅捷。

It used to be far more complicated doing business in Renminbi, but those difficulties are a thing of the past due to the Austraclear settlements platform jointly developed by the Australian Stock Exchange and the Bank of China. 8 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSINES S

50 CHINA - THE YEAR AHEAD

并非所谓的“硬着陆”

人民币即时结算：企业获实惠

全球约租车应用程序优步（Uber）和中国主要竞争对手滴滴出行之间的竞争大战愈演愈烈，而消费者成为真正的赢家。滴滴已经对优步在世界各地的本土竞争对手进行投资，甚至将战火烧到了优步在旧金山的大本营。现在，澳大利亚本土竞争者GoCar也参与角逐，展开新一轮融资给优步迎头一击。

FEATURES 专题报道

28 REALTIME RMB DELIVERS REAL BENEFITS TO BUSINESS

More diverse investment products, smaller but more competitive manufacturing, a surge in agricultural imports and more movie blockbusters are just some of McKinsey director emeritus Gordon Orr’s predictions for what might happen in China in 2016.

56 ONE BIG OPPORTUNITY 千载难逢的良机中国的“一带一路”倡议不仅仅是中国基础设施专业技术走向世界的大胆举措，也为澳大利亚企业运用其专业知识参与亚洲基础设施建设蓬勃发展的良机。

60 PLAYING IT SAFE 守法第一：小心驶得万年船随着反腐处罚力度加大以及全球各种形式的反腐举措蓄势待发，依法行商、杜绝贪腐应成为目前中国和澳大利亚商务中的重中之重。

商道

64 GO GLOBAL, GO SOCIAL 社交媒体：全球化好帮手跨文化智商在商业策略的执行过程中至关重要。社交媒体绝对是当代营销界的“金童子”：它帮助各大品牌与全球受众建立人脉关系。本文重点阐述二者的结合。

80 WHAT A CORKER! 葡萄美酒独步华夏这绝不只是假日里的一段罗曼史。中国人实际上已拜倒在葡萄酒的石榴裙下。中国人表达这种爱慕的方式可能与其它国家不尽相同，但这也在情理之中。和以往一样，中国人喜欢特立独行。 2015年，中国人喝掉了整整44.5亿升的葡萄洒。

It’s no vacation romance. China is indeed falling in love with wine. As ever, China is doing it its own way. In 2015 its people enjoyed a whopping 4.45 billion litres of wine.

前卫的设计。无与伦比的生活方式。 V by Crown Group 汇聚了世界级的公寓，度假村的设施，精品零售区和独一无二的酒店。位于Parramatta 中央商务区的心脏地带，建有各种房型，包括1卧，2卧和3卧的公寓套房，可观赏悉尼中央商务区及邻近的城市景观。心动不如行动，欢迎致电+612 9891 2817或参观我们的样板房。地址： 31 Macquarie Street, Parramatta。开放7天，每天上午10点至下午4点或预约参观。需要更多资讯请致电 +61 458 048 946 或发送邮件到 v@crowngroup.com.au。我们会说中文。

49 E-DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTIC 有中国特色的数字化蜕变

50 CHINA’S CONSUMERS WILL CONTINUE TO SURPRISE THE WORLD 中国消费者将继续让世界惊讶

72 VENTURING TO AUSTRALIA 创投澳洲

72 SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITIES 把握机遇

CONTRIBUTORS

第六期 Issue 06 致力推动中澳友好关系的重要人物，也跟我们一起创建这一期的《商道》。

Meet the minds helping to shape China-Australia relations – and who also helped shape this issue of Higher View Business

投稿人

1. NATHALIE ANTOINE

相互影响等方面内容的首席发言人。在

纳萨莉·安东尼

此之前，他曾以经济学家的身份为澳大

With a career spanning 28 years, Nathalie Antoine supports corporates and ASX listed companies with their Foreign Exchange, Trade Finance and International Payments strategies. She is currently Director RMB Business Specialist at Westpac Financial Markets. 纳萨莉·安东尼职业生涯横跨28年，在外汇、贸易金融和国际支付策略等领域为客户企业和澳大利亚证交所上市公司提供专业热忱的服务。目前，纳萨莉

利亚储备银行效力近12年，并先后出任经济部不同职务。

3. DELIA DENG 鄧凱欣

Delia is a Marketing and Communications Consultant who specialises in cross-cultural competence. Her forte is promoting engagement via digital, social media, and experiential marketing platforms.

jim@citrusmedia.com.au

10 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

影响力女性奖的联合创始主席以及

务专家，在西太平洋银行的人民币业务

长跨文化沟通，通过电子、社交媒体以及

辑。罗丁是Rodin Genoff & Associates

体验营销平台来促进双方互动与沟通。

公司常务董事，全球知名的创新与集群

之一，也是人民币澳元这对货币的领先做

4. STEPHANIE DAVESON

具实际效用的合作工具，推动企业合作，

市商。

斯蒂芬妮·戴夫森

迅速开发满足全球市场的最新产品和

Stephanie is a partner at Corrs Chambers Westgarth specialising in mergers, acquisitions and equity capital markets. She is also an expert on securities industry law and corporate governance.

服务。

Paul Bloxham has been Chief Economist for HSBC in Australia and New Zealand since September 2010. In this role, he is chief spokesperson for HSBC on forecasts and trends for the Australian and New Zealand economies and their interaction with global financial markets and international economies. Prior to this, Paul spent 12 years as an economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia. 保罗·布洛克斯汉姆于2010年出任汇丰银行澳大利亚与新西兰分行的首席经济学家。在任期间，他担纲汇丰银行有关澳大利亚和新西兰经济预测/趋势及其与全球金融市场及各大国际经济体之间

金融评论报》—西太平洋银行最具

方面颇有建树。西太平洋银行是澳大利

保罗·布洛克斯汉姆

与我们联系。

那瑞尔是咨询师、作家和负责人。她是费尔法克斯媒体公司《澳大利亚

鄧凱欣是市场营销与传播的顾问，擅

2. PAUL BLOXHAM

《商道》欢迎投稿，感兴趣者请发邮件至

BOSS Magazine. Rodin is Managing Director, Rodin Genoff & Associates based in Sydney and Singapore. He is an award-winning, globally recognised innovation and clusters specialist, who has developed practical collaboration tools that bring companies together to fast-track new products and services for global markets.

是西太平洋银行金融市场董事及人民币业

亚能直接进行人民币海外贸易的两家银行

If you’d like to contribute an article to Higher View Business, please get in touch with us via: jim@citrusmedia.com.au

10.

《澳洲金融评论》获奖BOSS杂志的前编

产业研究领域的获奖专家，曾研发许多

斯蒂芬妮是并购和股权资本市场的专家。她还擅长于证券业法以及公司治理。

5. NARELLE HOOPER AND RODIN GENOFF 那瑞尔·傅博和罗丁·杰诺夫

Narelle is an advisor and author and director. She was founding co-chair of Fairfax Media’s Australian Financial Review - Westpac Women of Influence Awards and former editor of the Financial Review’s award winning

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12.

商道

6. BEN HURLEY 白杰明

Ben Hurley is a journalist specialising in international business, emerging companies, technology and travel. He has been regularly travelling to Asia for almost 15 years, speaks Mandarin and says that he eats almost anything. He has worked for leading publications including the Australian Financial Review. 白杰明是一名专长报道国际业务、新兴企业、科技及旅游的记者。近15年他一直定期前往亚洲，精通普通话，而且几乎任何东西都吃。他曾在包括《澳洲金融时报》（Australian Financial Review）在内的知名出版机构工作。

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CONTRIBUTORS

投稿人

Higher View Business 商道 Issue 06 Strategic Advisor 战略顾问 Jingmin Qian

Editor 编辑 Ben Hurley

Staff Writers 特约撰稿人

Crystal Wong, Constantina Pilatos

7. LIZZIE KNIGHT 莉兹·奈特

Lizzie is a partner at Corrs Chambers Westgarth who specialises in cross-border mergers and acquisitions, with a focus on foreign inbound investment by companies in Australia. She has advised on some of the largest Asian investments in the Australian energy and resources sector. Having worked in Shanghai and Bangkok, coupled with experience in Australia, Lizzie understands the requirements of foreign clients and key elements of successful deal execution. 莉兹是跨境并购的专家，擅长于海外公司注资澳大利亚公司。她曾就一些在澳大利亚能源和资源领域最大的亚洲投资提供建议。曾于上海和曼谷工作，加上在澳大利亚的经验，莉兹了解国外客户的要求以及交易成功执行的关键要素。

8. JAMES LAURENCESON 詹姆斯·罗文森

James Laurenceson is currently Deputy Director and Professor at the Australia-China Relations Institute, University of Technology, Sydney (UTS). His research focuses exclusively on the Chinese economy and has been published in a range of acclaimed, peer-reviewed journals. The aim of the ACRI at UTS is to illuminate the bilateral relationship across political, economic, cultural and other dimensions. 詹姆斯·罗文森当前是悉尼科技大学澳中关系研究院的副院长和教授。他专

has the technical expertise to back up his track record. He has a 20 year reputation for delivering high quality results in groundbreaking transactions and is the co-chair of Corrs’ China Business Group. 安博信是阔思律师事务所的合伙人兼

最高权威之一。作为训练有素的酿酒技师和绝对独立的作家兼批评家，杰里米有近30部作品。杰里米向多家全国性及国际级别刊物发表作品，也是优酷、土

证券交易和公司治理。安博信拥有20年

豆网、Soho和Ku6等平台的定期顶级评

的经验，经常为澳大利亚及海外客户在

论员，其双语电视系列片“和杰里米一

竞争性与洽谈性收购以及公司与证券法一

起乐享葡萄酒”堪称网红。

般事宜方面提供法律建议。

12. HOWARD RAPKE 10. GORDON ORR 戈登·奥尔 Gordon Orr is a director emeritus of McKinsey and a senior external adviser. He is a member of the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) Council, and advises MGI on research related to technology & innovation, especially in Asia. In his 28 years with McKinsey, Gordon has advised institutions on strategic, operational, and financial issues. He has served clients in a range of industries across Asia— including high tech, telecoms, and consumer goods—helping transform institutions from local and regional players into global leaders. 戈登·奥尔是麦肯锡荣誉董事兼高级外部顾问，是麦肯锡全球研究院（MGI）委员会成员，就技术改革等领域为麦肯锡全球研究院出谋划策。在其为麦肯锡效力的28年里，戈登主要咨询顾问领域涉及策略、运营及金融。他曾为亚洲众多行业的客户服务，包括高科技、电信和消费品等行业，帮助客户实现从本土与区域向全球领军企业拓展转型。

11. JEREMY OLIVER

关系研究院的目标是阐释两国在政治、

杰里米·奥利弗

经济、文化和其它方面的双边关系。

Jeremy Oliver is one of Australia’s foremost wine authorities. A trained winemaker and a fiercely independent writer and critic, he has written nearly 30 books. Jeremy contributes to numerous national and international publications, and is a regular top rater

9. ANDREW LUMSDEN 安博信 Andrew Lumsden is a partner at law firm Corrs Chambers Westgarth. An M&A, securities transactions and corporate governance specialist, he

杰里米·奥利弗是澳大利亚葡萄酒业

中国业务部联席主席，专长并购与收购、

注于研究中国经济，并曾在一系列知名同行评审期刊上发表过大量文章。澳中

on YouKu, Tudou, Soho and Ku 6 with his on-line bilingual TV series Enjoy Wine with Jeremy.

霍华德·瑞普克

With more than 25 years’ commercial dispute experience, Howard Rapke is head of Holding Redlich’s dispute resolution and litigation practice group. Howard specialises in advising and defending corporate criminal matters with a particular focus on anti-bribery and anti-corruption matters. 豪力律师事务所争议解决与诉讼实践团队负责人霍华德·瑞普克有超过25年的商业纠纷经验。霍华德专业从事企业刑事事件的咨询与辩护，尤其擅长反贿赂、反腐败等相关问题。

13. DANIEL TERRILL, JACKIE WHITE 丹尼尔·特里尔博士和杰克·维特

Dr Daniel Terrill, based in Melbourne, and Jackie White, based in Brisbane, are directors at Deloitte Access Economics. Daniel has over 12 years consulting experience and a long history of cost benefit analysis and economic geography. Jackie is the firm’s resident agronomist with nearly 15 years of practicalexperience in agribusiness. She specialises in production systems across northern Australia.

Design 设计

Millie Jia, Stephanie Goh

Illustrations 插图

Bratislav Milenkovic @ Synergy Art

Sub Editor 副编辑 Adam Scroggy

Advertising 广告

Max La-Brooy +61 2 8188 3664 max@citrusmedia.com.au Crystal Wong +61 2 8188 3662 crystal@citrusmedia.com.au

Production Manager 生产经理 Ian Scott

Financial Controller 财务总监 Stuart Harle

Publisher 出版者

Jim Flynn +61 2 8188 3671 jim@citrusmedia.com.au Translation by Jack Chen (陈晓杰). Printed by Megacolour. Distributed by Network Services Company. Higher View Business is produced for business class passengers on China Eastern Airlines flights between Australia and China. It can also be found in select newsagents, premium hotels and is distributed directly to key people involved in contributing to the China-Australia relationship. Citrus Media wishes to acknowledge the valuable contribution of the Australia China Business Council and its staff and members in making this issue of Higher View Business. We invite contributions from experts in their respective fields – please get in touch with the Editor-in-Chief to discuss. © 2016 Citrus Media. All rights reserved. No article or images may be reproduced wholly or in part without prior written permission from the publisher. While every care was taken during the preparation of this magazine, Citrus Media cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information or any consequence arising from it. All views and opinions expressed herein are the personal views of the writer/photographer/illustrator and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of China Eastern Airlines or CCCA. Higher View Business is an independent publication and is in no way endorsed by China Eastern Airlines.

来自墨尔本的丹尼尔·特里尔和布里斯班的杰克·怀特是德勤经济研究所的董事。丹尼尔拥有超过12年的顾问经验，专研成本效益分析和经济地理学。杰克是德勤的农学家，拥有超过15年在农业方面的实践经验。

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NEWS, INSIGHTS, GLOBAL THINKING

NEWS 新闻

SWISSE VITAMINS SALES REVEALED TO RIVAL BLACKMORES

Swisse的维生素产品销售额——与Blackmores在伯仲之间 By Simon Evans, Australian Financial Review 作者：由西蒙·埃文斯，《澳大利亚金融评论》 Australian vitamins group Swisse generated $49 million in profits for new owner Biostime International in its first three months inside the group, with the brand now No.1 in healthcare on both the big Chinese online sites of Tmall and Taobao. The financial performance of Swisse, which had previously been kept private prior to the acquisition of the vitamins maker in September, 2015 by Hong Kong Stock Exchange-listed Biostime, has been revealed in the full-year results for calendar 2015 of the parent company. Swisse became part of Biostime from October 1 and the financial statements outline that for the three months ended December 31, 2015 Swisse contributed revenue of 838.1 million yuan, which equates to A$169 million at current exchange rates. If that revenue for three months is extrapolated out to a full 12-month contribution it is close to the annual sales being achieved by ASX-listed rival Blackmores. Blackmores on February 25 revealed that its half-year sales for the six months ended December, 31, 2015 had risen by 66% to $342 million and that net profit had almost tripled to $48.3 million as chief executive Christine Holgate tapped into extraordinary demand from China for “clean and green” Australian brands. The accounts also show the final price paid by Biostime for the 83% of Swisse which it bought in a fiercely-contested bidding war in September, 2015 was $1.45 billion. The accounts also showed that Biostime made a loan of $164.3 million to Swisse prior to the acquisition and that at the date of settlement this was part of the total funding. A post-completion sale price “adjustment” of $22.6 million formed part of the final sale price. Biostime outbid Chinese private equity firm Hony Capital and Chinese drug manufacturer Shanghai Pharma to acquire Swisse. Melbourne’s Ring family, Swisse chief executive Radek Sali and other executives own the remaining 17%.

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澳大利亚维生素生产商Swisse在被收购后的前三个月期间就为新东家合生元国际创造了4900 万美元的利润。Swisse如今已成为了中国在线商城天猫和淘宝排名第一的保健品品牌。在Swisse于2015年9月份被香港证交所上市的合生元公司收购之前，这家维生素生产商的营收情况一直都不为人所知，但如今我们已可以从其母公司2015年的年度财务报告中一见端倪。 Swisse于10月1日起成为合生元的子公司；合生元的财报显示在截至2015年12月31日为止前三年期间，Swisse为合生元贡献了8.381亿元人民币的收入，按当前汇率相当于1.69亿澳元。基于其前三个月收入来推断，Swisse的全年创收有望与其在澳大利亚证交所上市的竞争对手 Blackmores的年销售额一决高下。 2月25日，Blackmores公布了其截至2015年 12月31日前六个月期间的半年销售业绩：销售额飙升了66%，达到3.42亿美元，且净利润几乎翻了三倍，达到4830万美元。这一切都要归功于首席执行官Christine Holgate看到了中国对于“清洁、绿色”澳大利亚品牌的巨大需求。相关财报亦显示2015年9月份合生元在竞标对手的激烈围堵之下为收购Swisse 83%股权而支付的最终价格达到了14.5亿美元。财务亦显示合生元在收购Swisse之前向后者提供了一笔1.643亿美元的贷款，并且这笔贷款亦构成了合生元全部出价的一部分。收购完成之后一笔2260万美元的售价“调整”亦被纳入最终的售价之中。合生元一举击败中国私募基金弘毅投资以及中国制药商上海医药拿下了Swisse的收购权。墨尔本的Ring家族、Swisse首席执行官Radek Sali以及其它高管持有剩余17%的股权。

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XINHUA 新华专栏

CHINA-AUSTRALIA FTA TO CREATE ONE OF BIGGEST AIRLINE PARTNERSHIPS: QANTAS CEO 澳航：“空中袋鼠”将与东航打造最大航空联盟 By Matt Burgess 作者：马特·伯吉斯

The head of Australia’s largest airline said its partnership with China Eastern would become its largest global partnership following the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement. Speaking on Xinhua’s Talk to China program, Qantas Chief Executive Alan Joyce has said with the rapid growth of China’s middle class, the group’s recently approved partnership with China Eastern and opportunities afforded in the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) will allow the airline to expand into the Chinese market. “We can benefit out of tourism, out of economic activity,” Joyce said. In August, The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) approved the partnership between China Eastern and Qantas, which both airlines are set to capitalise on. Joyce said both airlines will work together to develop and increase capacity in the Australia-Shanghai market, starting with Brisbane, and hoping to grow by 21% as a result of benefits of the China-Australia FTA. “Both brands will use their domestic networks to enhance the operation to Shanghai,” Joyce said. “Qantas and China Eastern will use their brands and their distribution to enhance the services from Shanghai, but, Qantas will be selling the rest of China and the rest of Australia on that network to allow people more easy access.” Easy access into Australia is what’s needed with the potential boost in Chinese tourists into Australia, second in numbers behind New Zealand, but most on expenditure, Joyce predicts. “In China, they say France is the number one destination the Chinese want to travel to and Australia is number two. That’s huge potential in terms of tourism,” Joyce said. “We have over 750,000 Chinese tourists coming here,” and the number is growing at 11% year on year, according to the Qantas chief executive. With 5 billion Australian dollars in expenditure, Joyce predicts that will

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澳大利亚第一大航空公司——澳洲航空公司（Qantas）总裁表示，在中澳自贸协定的推动下，中国可能将与中国东方航空公司打造其全球最大的航空联盟。澳航总裁艾伦·乔伊斯在接受新华社《对话· 中国》专访栏目时表示，中国中产阶级的迅速增长、澳航与东航的合作获得批准，以及中澳自贸协定带来的机遇，都为澳航今后扩张其中国市场提供了良好条件。 “我们可以从旅游业及两国经济活力中受益。”乔伊斯说。 8月，澳大利亚竞争和消费者委员会（ACCC）批准了澳航与中国东方航空公司的合作，该合作会使双方获利。乔伊斯说，澳航和东航将携手发展澳大利亚各大城市与上海间的航空业市场，并增加载客量。首先是布里斯班-上海的航线，乔伊斯希望在中澳自贸协定的作用下，该航线（利润）可以增长21%。 “两个航空公司都将运用自己所属国的国内网络来加强澳大利亚各大城市与上海间的航线运营。”乔伊斯说。 “（澳航和东航）同样也将利用自己的品牌和分布来增强从上海始发的航空服务。我们澳航还会将更多中国城市与澳大利亚城市增添到这个合作网络中来，以便人们到澳大利亚来。” 乔伊斯预测，随着中国游客来访澳大利亚的人数迅速增长，更加便捷地到达澳大利亚正是人们所需要的——就来访人数来讲，中国是澳大利亚第二大海外游客来源国，不过中国游客在澳大利亚的消费却更多。 “我听说在中国，人们将法国视为梦想旅行地第一名，而澳大利亚仅次法国，位居第二。这意味着旅游业具有巨大的潜力。”乔伊斯说。

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double to 9 to 10 billion Australian dollars by the year 2020. “That’s why we’re very keen on the Free Trade Agreement,” he said. “The FTA helps with everything–tourism, with manufacturing, with trade in agriculture. It can improve the economic activity between the two countries–which is already very big–and has the potential to grow even further.” Joyce said the partnership with China Eastern has the potential to be the airline’s largest, ahead of the Qantas-Emirates partnership that services Europe and the Qantas-American Airlines relationship that services the Americas, which is, historically speaking, Australia’s largest market. “With China growing the way it’s growing, the opportunities of the FTA...we’re pretty excited about it,” Joyce said. “As the free trade agreement encourages more trade, we will grow and grow more rapidly into the Chinese market.” Joyce said even before the China-Australia FTA, the economic relationship was still significant with two-way trade amounting to A$160 billion annually and nearly A$40 billion of Chinese investment into Australia. Joyce, however, is not worried about China’s investment into Australia following slowing economic growth and the falling Aussie dollar. Despite the mining construction slowdown, Australia’s diverse economy is experiencing good growth in other sectors, Joyce said, adding that Qantas’ domestic business is an example of Australia’ s economy. “We made nearly A$600 million in the domestic operation between our two brands,” Joyce said. “So that gives you an indication of how healthy the underlying economy still is.” However, Joyce himself was forced to overhaul Qantas in 2014 following an A$2.8 billion loss in the 2013/14 Australian financial year, creating one of the most significant financial turnarounds in Australian corporate history. “We’re halfway through the restructure, and it has delivered some very good results to date,” Joyce said. In the 2014/15 Australian financial year, Qantas made an underlying profit of A$975 million, for a turnaround of A$1.6 billion.

“目前，有超过75万名中国游客到澳大利亚来旅游。”并且这个数字以每年11%的速度增长着，乔伊斯表示。 “这个增长幅度是巨大的。” 目前，中国游客在澳大利亚每年消费50亿澳元，乔伊斯预计，到2020年，这个数字将翻番，达到90亿至100亿澳元。 “这正是我们如此渴望中澳自贸协定的原因。”乔伊斯说到。 “中澳自贸协定对各个行业都有益——旅游业、制造业、农业。 “自贸协定可以提高两国间的经济活力——尽管两国间的经济联系已经十分紧密，但还有提升空间。” 乔伊斯表示，澳航与东航之间的合作很有可能成为澳航史上最大的国际航空联盟，（其规模将）超过目前澳航与阿联酋航空公司针对澳大利亚与欧洲间航空业市场的合作以及澳航与美国航空公司针对澳美间航空市场的合作——从历史上讲，美国是澳大利亚航空业最大的市场。 “中国正在不断强大，中澳自贸协定带来机遇…我对此非常激动。”乔伊斯说。 “自贸协定鼓励更多的贸易往来，因此我们也会加快脚步扩张我们的中国市场。” 乔伊斯提到，即使是在中澳自贸协定签署之前，中澳之间的经济关系就已经十分紧密了—— 每年1600亿澳元的双边贸易量以及中国在澳大利亚近400亿澳元的投资额。乔伊斯并不担心中国经济增长放缓及澳元大幅贬值——现1澳元约为70-72美分——为中国在澳大利亚的投资带来影响。据澳大利亚统计局，澳大利亚本地经济在（2015年）第三季度增长了0.9%，与上年同期相比整体增长2.5%，相比第二季度下跌0.2%的经济表现，（澳大利亚第三季度经济表现）超出了市场预期。2016年3月将公布澳大利亚2015年第四季度经济数据。乔伊斯认为，尽管澳大利亚矿业建设发展放缓，但澳大利亚其他产业多样化的经济正在良好增长。 “很多产业都面临着更多机遇，比如旅游业、制造业、基础设施业、金融服务业及专业服务业” 乔伊斯指出。乔伊斯说，尽管采矿业发展低迷，但澳航的国内业务却可以证明澳大利亚经济的良好。 “澳航去年凭借下属的两个品牌（澳洲航空与捷星航空）创造了近6亿澳元的国内收益。” “这说明澳大利亚的基础经济仍然是良好的。” 在澳航2013-2014财年经历了28亿澳元的亏损后，乔伊斯不得不在2014年对澳航进行彻底的改革，而这一变革也成为了澳大利亚企业史上最重大的经济转折之一。 “我们的调整重组已经进行到了一半，从目前的反馈来看，这次调整为我们带来了很好的结果。”乔伊斯说。乔伊斯还告诉新华社记者，在2014-2015财年，澳航营业利润9.75亿澳元，相当于利润增长了16亿澳元。

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FEATURE 专栏

FORTESCUE DEAL WITH VALE COULD RESHAPE IRON ORE SECTOR 福斯科与淡水河谷的交易或将重塑铁矿业 By Amanda Saunders, Australian Financial Review 由阿曼达·桑德斯，澳洲金融评论

Fortescue Metals Group founder Andrew Forrest’s deal with iron ore giant Vale could reshape the global market by shutting down high-cost Brazilian mines, increasing Fortescue’s profit margins and reducing competition between the world’s two biggest iron ore-mining nations. Fortescue said on March 8 it had inked a preliminary agreement with Brazil’s Vale that could lead to the Brazilian iron ore giant buying a stake of 5% to 15% in Fortescue, as well as stakes in its mining assets. In the initial stage of the arrangement, the two companies will blend about 80 to 100 million tonnes of their iron ore a year at a facility in China. The deal may allow Vale to eventually shut high-cost mines and focus on the low-cost production from its new huge expansion project, called S11D. This would help calm fears of too much iron ore in the global market. The Chinese steel industry said it was worried the co-operation between Fortescue and Vale could lessen competition, an assertion disputed by Fortescue. Citi analyst Clarke Wilkins said that in the short term this deal was designed to increase the profitability of Vale’s high-grade iron ore and Fortescue’s low-grade iron ore. “Long term, this could be viewed as the first step of a more disciplined approach to iron ore supply by aligning two of the big four iron ore producers,” he said, a reference to Fortescue, Vale, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

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福斯科金属集团的创始人安德鲁·福里斯特与铁矿巨头淡水河谷的交易通过关闭高成本的巴西矿井、提高福斯科的利润以及减少这两个全球最大的铁矿石出产国之间的竞争，或将重塑全球市场。 3月8号，福斯科方面表示其已于巴西淡水河谷签署初步协议，巴西铁矿巨头将买入福斯科 5%~15%的股份以及其矿业资产股份。此安排的初始阶段，两个公司每年将在中国的一个工厂混合0.8~1亿吨的铁矿石。这项交易或会令淡水河谷最终关闭其高成本的矿井，并集中精力发展其新的庞大扩张项目（此项目被称为S11D）中的低成本产品。这将帮助抚平全球市场过多铁矿带来的恐慌。中国钢铁产业担心福斯科和淡水河谷的合作或将减少竞争，福斯科方面对此并不苟同。花旗银行的分析师克拉克·威尔金斯说到，短期来看，这项交易是为了增加淡水河谷高品位铁矿以及福斯科低品位铁矿的利润率。 “就长期来看，四大铁矿生产商中的两大巨头结盟，将被视为铁矿石供应业自我规范的第一步。”他说到，四大铁矿生产商分别为福斯科、淡水河谷、必和必拓集团以及力拓集团。交易消息还带来了铁矿石价格一夜之间暴涨 18%，达到了63.74美元，这是近期历史上最大幅度的单日涨幅。消息的宣告也引起人们对相应信息披露问题的

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News of the deal followed an 18% surge in the iron ore price overnight to $US63.74, the biggest one-day rise in recent history. The announcement was marred by disclosure concerns. In the day ahead of the announcement, shares in Fortescue surged 23.7% to close at $3.08 and the ASX wrote to the company to ask it to explain the rise. Fortescue chief executive Nev Power said the deal was not behind the share price spike on Monday, saying Fortescue’s rise was “in line with the market”, and put it down to shorting of the miner. He was “not concerned” that the deal could have been leaked, and it was not a precursor to a full takeover by Vale. “I think our increase in share price has been totally consistent with what has been happening in the market,” Mr Power said from San Francisco, where he had been doing an investor roadshow. “What we have seen over the last 24 hours is an unwinding of shorts in the iron ore price and in many of the listed stocks seen to have (exposure) to iron ore or China. I think what you saw in our share price is simply that – a lot of short covering from a position that was very heavily shorted against the iron ore price in China.” Li Xinchuang, deputy secretary of the China Iron and Steel Association, which represents China’s biggest state-owned steel mills, said the country’s regulators may oppose the tie-up over competition fears. Mr Li, whose forecasts are used by Beijing to help formulate its five-year plans, said there may be concerns over the potential to lose an independent source of supply from Fortescue should Vale proceed with the blending deal and a stake in the Pilbara producer. “There is nothing official for them to consider at the current time but any change of competition in the market could be viewed negatively,” he said. UBS analyst Glyn Lawcock said the deal could increase Fortescue’s profit margins and drive up the share price. “Ultimately this is all about margin enhancement. Every $US1 a tonne Fortescue can increase its margin by – which can come through cost decrease or price increase or a combination – adds 50¢ a share to the value of the company. That’s 15% on a share price of $3,” Mr Lawcock said. Mining analyst Christopher LaFemina, of US-based firm Jefferies, said China’s competition regulator MOFCOM could raise problems for Fortescue, and the deal “may raise antitrust red flags”. With Perry Williams and Tess Ingram

关注。宣告前一天，福斯科的股票暴涨23.7%，最终停在3.08美元，澳洲证券交易所还写信要求公司解释暴涨的原因。福斯科首席执行官潘纳威说，此次交易并未是在周一股价飙升之后才进行的，福斯科股价的暴涨是“与市场暴涨一致”，并把原因归咎于空头补仓。他“并不担心”交易有可能已被泄露，并且这也不是淡水河谷全面收购的前奏。 “我认为我们股价的飙升与市场的走向完全一致，”正在旧金山做一场投资者路演的潘先生如是说，“过去24小时里，我们所看到的是对铁矿石价格以及许多与铁矿石供应或中国相关的上市股票做空的空头改选更张。我觉得你在股价上所看到的暴涨，只是前期大量针对中国铁矿石价格做空后的空头回补。” 代表中国最大国有轧钢厂的中国钢铁工业协会的副秘书长李新创说到，中国的监管机构也许会因为担忧竞争减少而反对这种联合。李先生的预测被北京中央政府采纳用于协助其制定五年计划。他说，如果淡水河谷继续进行混合交易并参股这个皮尔巴拉生产商，也许就有人关心市场可能失去福斯科这样一家独立供应商。 “目前，并未有一个官方的说法供他们考虑，但市场竞争的任何改变都有可能被消极对待。” 他说。瑞士联合银行的分析师格林·洛克可说，这个交易或将增加福斯科的利润空间，并抬高其股价。“最终，这些都与增加利润有关。每吨利润增加1美元，福斯科可增加其利润空间，不论是通过降低成本还是提高价格或联合两种方式。公司股价每股增加50¢。这对股价为3美元的股价，这可是15%。”洛克可先生说。美国大型投资银行杰弗瑞集团的矿业分析师克里斯多夫 ∙ 拉菲米纳说到，中国的竞争监管机构（中国商务部）或将给福斯科带来难题，这个交易“也许会引起对市场垄断的关注。” 与佩里·威廉姆斯和泰丝 ∙英格拉姆合作

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NEWS BRIEFS 新讯妙闻

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LENOVO TO RELEASE ‘AUGMENTED REALITY’ SMARTPHONE 联想“增强现实”智能手机年中发布

SHARP TAKEOVER PLAN STALLS AT LAST MINUTE 夏普收购计划最后一秒搁置 Foxconn Taiwan has stalled plans for a A$7.6 billion takeover of Sharp, in what would be the largest acquisition of a Japanese consumer electronics company by an overseas buyer. Citing its need to review last-minute disclosures before committing, Foxconn’s hestitation marks a further blow for the Japanese consumer electronics giant which has already lost billions in recent years. 台湾富士康已暂缓其以76亿澳元的价格收购夏普的计划，这本将成为日本消费电子产品公司被海外买家收购的最大收购案。富士康在签约前夕提出需审查最后一刻的信息披露，富士康的犹豫对于这个最近几年已亏损数十亿的日本消费电子产品巨头来说是进一步的打击。

CHINA PLANS SECOND SPACE STATION 中国规划第二个宇宙空间站 China has announced its plans to launch a second experimental space station this year as part of the 20 space missions scheduled for 2016. According to the government’s China Manned Space Agency, the June launch of the Tiangong 2 space lab will be followed by the Shenzhou 11 as part of the series of crewed Chinese missions that began in 2003. 中国已宣布其今年将设立第二个实验空间站作为其2016年 20个太空任务计划中的一个。据中国载人航天工程局介绍，6月发射天宫2号太空实验室后，紧接着就发射神舟11 号，这是2003年开始的中国载人航天任务系列中的一部分。 18 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

China’s Lenovo Group is planning to make a dent in the highly competitive smartphone market in July this year with the launch of its new smartphone which boasts “augmented reality” features. The unique selling-point will be developed under Google’s Project Tango, a highly responsive technology which will give the mobile device the ability to know where it is and how it moves through an area by combining 3D motion tracking with depth sensors. The phone is expected to strengthen Lenovo’s presence in mature markets such as North America, following last year’s slight decline.

中国联想集团正策划在今年7月通过发布其以“扩增实境”为卖点的新智能手机以求在竞争激烈的智能手机市场引起关注。这一独特的卖点将在谷歌Tango项目下进行开发，Tango项目是一种高度灵敏的技术，它可以通过结合 3D动作跟踪深度传感器，使得移动设备具有感知其位置和穿过某一区域时所用方式的能力。联想集团期待在去年市场占有率有所下降的情况下，这个新手机能够强化联想在成熟市场如北美市场的占有率。

BLACKMORES’ PROFITS SOAR 澳佳宝在中国利润飙升 Australian vitamin maker Blackmores has posted a near tripling of its interim dividend and more than doubled its net profit in the December half to $48.3 million on the back of Chinese demand. According to Blackmores chief executive Christine Holgate, the massive growth in the Chinese market is accelerating even faster now following nine successive quarters of strong growth.

澳大利亚维生素生产商澳佳宝已发出通告称主要由于巨大的中国市场需求，其中期股息增至近三倍，其去年下半年的净利润增加一倍多至 4830万澳元。据澳佳宝首席执行官克里斯汀霍尔根所说，在连续9个季度的强劲增长势头后，现在中国市场的大幅度增长甚至还在加速。股东每股可享受2美元的中期股息，这个数字几乎是去年的三倍。

CHINA TAKES AIM AT ‘WEIRD’ BUILDINGS 中国整治“怪异”建筑 China’s new guidelines for urban development have focused on eradicating the proliferation of ‘weird’ architecture, following condemnation of overly stylised buildings by Chinese President Xi Jinping. The guidelines stress that designs should complement the urban landscape and geography, and be an embodiment of China’s national character. The guidelines’ push for function over form has also taken particular aim at gated communities, with plans to ban new gated communities and recommendations to open up existing ones. 商道

中国国家主席习近平谴责城市建筑风格求异过度后，中国城市发展的新指南集中于根除“怪异” 建筑的扩散。这个指南强调建筑设计应与城市景观和地形相得益彰，体现中国的国家特色。指南强调建筑应注重功能多过形式，尤其对“大门紧闭”的封闭式社区开刀，并计划禁止新的封闭性社区建筑及考虑让现有封闭社区开放的建议。

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BARANGAROO CASINO OPENING DELAYED 18 MONTHS 布朗格鲁赌场开业延期18个月

ILLEGAL INVESTORS FORCED TO SELL 境外投资者被迫销售非法房产

Billionaire James Packer’s Crown Resorts has blamed planning delays for a significant delay to the opening of its $2 billion six star hotel and casino on Sydney’s Barangaroo, which will most likely see the development open in 2021. Crown chief executive Rowen Craigie made the announcement following a 35% slump in half-year profit due to poor trading conditions in Macau, which eclipsed strong growth in the group’s Australian casinos.

亿万富翁詹姆斯帕克的皇冠集团将其位于悉尼布朗格鲁投资20亿澳元的6星级酒店和赌场开业计划的大幅延期归咎于规划部门的延误。极有可能要到2021年才能看到赌场的开业。由于澳门交易状况不好，皇冠集团的首席执行官罗文克雷吉在半年利润暴跌35%的情况下宣布该延期消息，令皇冠集团下属澳大利亚赌场的强劲增长黯然失色。

Treasurer Scott Morrison has cracked down on investors he says have breached foreign investment laws by forcing the sale of their properties. Chinese investors are among the group of foreign investors implicated in the scandal that has seen the government order the sale of at least 27 properties to date. A total of 1500 cases have been referred to the tax office for fraudulent activity, with 800 of these still being investigated. 财政部长莫里森已通过强迫售卖房产对其所称的违反外国投资法的境外投资者进行打击。中国投资者也在受此次丑闻牵连的外国投资群体内。迄今为止，澳洲政府已强制售卖至少27处房产。共计1500个案件因欺诈行为被移交税务局，其中800个案件仍在调查当中。

AUSTRALIA WELCOMES RECORD NUMBER OF CHINESE VISITORS 澳大利亚中国游客数量破纪录 In a historic first, the annual number of Chinese visitors to Australia has eclipsed one million a year. The milestone is a clear indication of China’s ever growing tourism sector which sees Chinese travellers collectively spend A$7.7 billion a year, making China Australia’s most lucrative tourism market. Australia is reaping the rewards of China’s booming economy and citizens’ penchant for traveling, with Chinese visitors projected to surpass those from New Zealand by 2020. 每年来澳大利亚旅游的中国游客数量有史以来首次达到100万人。这个里程碑清晰展现了中国旅游业的不断增长，并见证了中国游客一年旅游消费77亿澳元的辉煌。中国是澳大利亚最赚钱的旅游市场。澳大利亚正在从中国繁荣的经济及其国民的旅游热情中获益，到2020年，中国游客的数量估计会超过新西兰游客的数量。 20 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

商道

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Australian treasurer Scott Morrison has hit out at critics following his decision to approve the sale of Australian dairy company Van Diemen’s Land Company to privately owned Chinese company Moon Lake Investments. Morrison responded that given the “entirely legitimate private tender process” did not contravene national interests, it was not his role, nor that of the Foreign Investment Review Board, to police the sale to appease the disgruntled Australian companies who failed in their bid.

DAIRY SALE DRAWS CRITICISM 澳大利亚乳品销售招致批评

RIO TINTO WAVES GOODBYE TO “A” CREDIT RATING 力拓集团向信用等级A说再见 Ratings agency Moody’s has downgraded Rio Tinto from an A3 grade rating to its third lowest, Baa1. Moody’s sweeping iron ore downgrades reflect a fundamental downward shift in the mining sector that the agency warned will increase credit risk and weaker metrics for the global mining sector. The agency attributed the trend to the necessity to re-calibrate ratings in line with expected performance in a more challenging and volatile operating environment. 信用等级评定机构穆迪公司已将力拓集团的信用等级从 A3级降至其倒数第三级Baa1级。穆迪公司对铁矿行业的全面降级表明采矿行业整体下行，公司警告说这将对全球采矿行业增加信贷风险和疲软指标。公司将这种趋势归咎于，在一个更具挑战性和不稳定的操作环境中，有必要根据预期效益进行重新校正等级评定。

澳大利亚财政部长莫里森对抨击其批准将澳大利亚乳品公司Van Diemen’s Land公司卖给中国私营公司月亮湖投资决策的人士提出反击。莫里森越过这个成功的外国收购案例，反驳说，鉴于“完全合法的私人招标过程”并不违反国家利益，无论是他自己，还是外国投资审查委员会都无职责监督此次售卖，以平息在此次投标中失利的澳大利亚公司的满腹牢骚。

CHINESE TOURISTS LUMPED WITH SKY HIGH VISA FEES 中国游客被迫负担极高的澳大利亚签证费用 A top tourism leader has lambasted Australia for the major price discrepancy in theamount Chinese and European travellers pay for an Australian visa. Tourism & Transport Forum chief executive Margy Osmond highlighted that many other countries paid as little as $20 for a visa, whilst Chinese travellers must hand over $135. Citing research linking visa reform to substantial tourism increase, Osmand advocated that visa reforms could potentially result in a boost of 255,000 Chinese visitors to Australia over three years.

一位旅游业高层领导痛斥澳大利亚对中国和欧洲游客收取不同的澳大利亚签证费用。旅游与交通论坛首席执行官玛吉奥斯蒙德强调很多其他国家的游客只需支付低至20澳元的签证费用，而中国游客必须支付135澳元。引用有关签证改革与旅游实质发展关联度的研究，奥斯蒙德认为签证改革将极有可能在三年中额外吸引 255，000名中国游客到澳大利亚旅游。

COAL MINER YANKUANG EYES AUSTRALIAN FOOD 煤矿企业兖矿集团着眼澳洲食品 High-end Australian products will be the sole focus of Chinese coal miner Yankuang Group’s e-commerce platform which will launch mid-year with support from its ASX-listed Australian subsidiary, Yancoal. Considering the declining price of coal, Yankuang hopes to extend its operations beyond the resources sector and into the markets of beef, vitamins and milk powder retail. 商道

高端的澳大利亚产品将是中国煤矿企业兖矿集团电子商务平台的唯一关注点，兖矿将在其澳洲证券交易所上市的澳洲子公司兖煤（Yancoal）的支持下在年中开放这个平台。考虑到煤矿价格的下跌，兖矿集团希望通过超越资源行业，将其经营扩展至牛肉、维生素和奶粉零售行业。 H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 21

EVENTS

活动

EVENTS 活动

CHINESE CONTEMPORARY ART MONTH

As a major highlight in China Cultural Centre’s calendar 2016 and first of its kind in Australia, the Art Month aims to deliver a most updated picture of Chinese Contemporary Art and facilitate dialogues between China and Australia in an interdisciplinary manner. It features two contemporary Chinese art exhibitions: Stories of Life and Zao Hua as well as associated forums, seeking to facilitate dialogues and closer contacts between Chinese and Australian contemporary artists, collectors, curators and creative industry professionals at large. 作为悉尼中国文化中心2016年度重点文化项目，“中国当代艺术月”在澳大利亚各界人士的广泛关注和热切期盼下，将于4月12日晚在悉尼正式拉开帷幕。本次活动由悉尼中国文化中心与中策艺术联合主办，将在为期一个月的时间里，以2个展览和 3个论坛向澳大利亚观众充分展现中国当代艺术魅力，加深中澳两国在艺术领域的交流和对彼此的了解。

Image Credit: He Jinwei, Left behind World-Caocao, Oil on canvas 150×115cm, 2013

“中国当代艺术月”掀起澳洲中国当代艺术热潮

STORIES OF THE LIFE 世间 ZAO HUA 造化 Date: 13 April - 12 May 2016 (except Sat 30 April) Time: 10am - 1pm & 2pm - 5pm, Tuesday - Saturday Venue: China Cultural Centre in Sydney Entry: Free As Chinese society changes rapidly, many contemporary Chinese artists make relentless efforts to express the daily life of the Chinese people. With the artistic creations originating from the artists’ own personal and spiritual experiences, we learn from their unique, vivid stories of life in contemporary China. “世间”想要呈现的不仅是当下同一时刻发生的事件的总和，也包含着当代中国人的历史记忆，包含着过去发生过的事件在历史中留下的痕迹，是漫长的历史积淀和过去故事的延续。同时“世间”并不是已成定局的完成时，而是正在发生的鲜活的进行时，当下的直播与过去的影子交织在一起，呈现出中国的世间万象。 22 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

Image Credit: Fang Lijun, Summer, ink on paper, 2015 (Left) Image Credit: Ji Dachun. My home is your home (2005). Oil on canvas, 150 x 150 cm (Right)

CHINESE CONTEMPORARY ART EXHIBITIONS 中国当代艺术展

Date: 12 April - 25 April 2016 Time: 10am - 12pm & 12:30pm - 5pm, Monday-Friday Venue: Level 1/ 541 Kent Street, Sydney Entry: Free “Zao hua Theory” is “The inspiration for art comes from zao hua (nature), but nature’s beauty can only be revealed when an artist depicts it as guided by his emotions and thoughts,” as art is not a simple study and the production of the visual appearance of the physical world, but rather is more importantly an exploration and re-interpretation of the inner nature of the objects it depicts. “造化”的标题来源于中国传统绘画重要创作理论之一，由唐代画家张璪所提出的“外师造化，中得心源”，而展览想要呈现的“造化” 这一观念在艺术创作领域的含义变迁，和当代中国的人文和精神景观。商道

EVENTS

活动

FORUMS “中国当代艺术月”高峰论坛

THE ROLE OF CHINESE CONTEMPORARY ART, ITS TREND & IMPLICATIONS 中国当代艺术之角色、趋势与影响 Date&Time: Wednesday 13 April 2016 at 9:00 -12:00 Venue: China Cultural Centre in Sydney Chairperson: Mrs. Zhao Li, Director, China Cultural Centre Keynote Speakers: Mr. Zhao Li, Professor, Central Academy of Fine Arts, Chinese Contemporary Art Month Curator | Luise Guest, Director of Education and Research, White Rabbit Collection | Anna Davis, Curator, The Museum of Contemporary Art Australia | Toby Chapman, Curator, 4A Gallery (TBC) | Rosemary Miller, Artistic Director & CEO, Salamanca Arts Centre, Tasmania | Charissa Davies, Visual Arts Curator Adelaide Festival Centre

ARTIST TALK & PANEL DISCUSSION BY CHINESE AND AUSTRALIAN ART COLLECTORS 浅谈中国当代艺术收藏

Date&Time: Thursday 14 April 2016 at 9:30-11:30 Venue: China Cultural Centre in Sydney Artists: Xu Jiacun, Artist | Guo Zilong, Artist | Chen Zhong, Artist, Founder of 204 Art Space | Li Hong, Artist Panel Moderator: Chen Zhong, Artist, Founder of 204 Art Space Panalists: Ralph Hobbs, Art Director of Nanda\Hobbs Contemporary Art Gallery Shang Hong, Board Member, Ningbo Qianzimu Investment Management Partnership Firm | Li Le, Director, Liberal Arts Foundation, Beijing Guanbo Shangxia Cultural Investment Co. Ltd. | Chen Huai, Chairman of the board, Xiamen Cultural Property Exchange

URBAN ARTS IN DYNAMIC CITIES 魅力城市︱艺术介入 Date&Time: Thursday 14 April 2016 at 9:30-11:30 Venue: China Cultural Centre in Sydney Chairperson: Yue Zhang, Researcher, Sculpture by the Sea Keynote Speakers: Peter Poulet, NSW Government Architect | Bridget Smyth, Desinger Director, City of Sydney (TBC) | David Handley, Founding Director, Sculpture by the Sea | Jiao Meng, Executive Director, 58Art Web Site | Simon Chan, Director and Founder of Art Atrium, Architect and Art Collector | Ho Kin U, Director of ART MO, President of Macao Culture and Art Industry Association, Founding President of Friends of Art Association | Xu Fang, Associate Professor in Art & Design in UNSW Isaac Han, Chief Curator, Art Nova 100 商道

H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 23

OPINION

快谈

中国慢增长并非硬着陆：塞翁失马的澳洲？

CHINA’S SLOWING GROWTH RATE IS NOT THE HARD LANDING FEARED Pick up any major Australian newspaper these days and the business section is sure to be filled with coverage of the latest economic developments in China. Australia’s fixation with China is justified. In 2014-15, Australia’s bilateral trade with China stood at $A149.8bn. That’s more than double the value of trade with Japan, Australia’s second-largest trading partner. But while the quantity of news coverage about China’s economy has increased dramatically, the quality of analysis has often struggled to keep up. To believe many of the headlines written since Shanghai’s stock market bubble burst last June would be to accept that China’s economy is slowing sharply and the best Australia can hope for is that it comes to a grinding halt rather than end in a crash. But the irony is that China is buying more of Australia’s goods and services than ever before. Here are the facts. In 2014-15: • Australia’s exports of minerals and fuels to China stood at $55.6bn. This compares with $A35.7bn five years ago, and $21.3bn to Japan. • Australia’s agricultural exports to China stood at $A9.0bn. This compares with $3.7bn five years ago, and $5.2bn to the US. • Australia’s services exports to China stood at $A8.8bn. This compares with $A5.5bn five years ago, and $A7.1bn to the US. Since the early 2000s there’s been no brighter spot on Australia’s economic radar than China. So why all the negativity now? In part it comes down to a failure to comprehend that the size and structure of China’s economy has changed, as well as the huge opportunities this has created. China’s economy has more than doubled in value since 2008. It’s now the world’s largest economy in purchasing power terms and second

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largest in US dollar terms. This means that each year growth is coming off a bigger base. In growing at 6.9% in 2015 the volume of purchasing power added was two-thirds more than in 2005, when it grew by 11.4%. That’s more purchasing power to be spent on everything from Pilbara iron ore, Barossa Valley wine and Gold Coast holidays. China bears also worry about sluggish activity in China’s secondary sector (industry and construction) and slowing fixed asset investment. But this misses the point that the services sector and consumption are now driving China’s economy. Last year the services sector share of GDP hit 50.5%, a full 10 percentage points clear of the secondary sector. And consumption accounted for two-thirds of China’s GDP growth, up from one-half in 2014. An increased emphasis on services and consumption does not mean that Australia and China will trade less. Rather, it means that new areas of engagement will open up. In 2010-11, iron ore accounted for 56.4% of Australia’s exports to China. By 2014-15, this had fallen to 46.6%. To be sure, last year Australia exported more iron ore to China than ever before, up 9% on 2014. But its relative importance declined in part because Chinese demand for other Australian goods and services is booming. Consider tourism: last year 1.02mn Chinese visited Australia, spending $A7.7bn. At the beginning of the decade Tourism Australia predicted that a best case scenario would see Chinese tourists spending $A9 billion in 2020. Now they reckon that $A13 billion is more likely. Chinese tourists are expected to account for a

商道

by Prof. James Laurenceson, Deputy Director - AustraliaChina Relations Institute

stunning 44% of the growth in total international tourist spending in Australia out to 2024-25. Or education: last year enrolments by Chinese students in Australian schools and universities reached 170,212, up 12.8% on 2014, and nearly 100,000 more than those from India. The potential for further services and consumption-led growth in China is vast. In the US, services accounts for 78.1% of GDP, compared with 50.5% in China. Consumption is more than 80% of GDP in the US, while being just a touch over 50% in China. Being optimistic about China’s ability to realise this potential doesn’t require a huge leap of faith. While many economists have spent the last few years worried that China might get stuck in a “middle income trap", some parts of the country have simply gotten on with the job of attaining high income status. In 2014, Shenzhen’s income per-capita was RMB149,497, or $US24,259. In Nanshan district, Shenzhen’s technology heartland, it was $US49,730. This compares with $US27,971 in Korea and $US40,170 in Hong Kong, SAR. Sure, Shenzhen it just one of 293 prefecturelevel cities in China. But Silicon Valley is just one small part of the US. The point is that Shenzhen shows that whatever the limitations of China’s economy, achieving a high level of income per-capita is not beyond it. It’s striking that in 2014 research and development expenditure accounted for 4.02% of Shenzhen’s GDP, compared with 0.74% in Hong Kong, SAR. Shenzhen serves as the global headquarters of leading manufacturing and tech companies including: • Tencent, which has over one billion monthly active users across its desktop platform QQ and mobile instant message app Wechat.

OPINION

快谈

CHINA'S IMPORTS OF IRON ORE & CONCENTRATES FROM AUSTRALIA

这

些日子，随便拿起一份澳大利亚主流报纸，报纸的商业版肯定充满着各种中国最新经济发展的报道。澳大利亚对中国情有独钟 Source: China General Administration of Customs units of Million Tonnes 单位：百万吨是合情合理的。 JAN 2008 2014至2015年，澳大利亚与中国的双边贸易 27 Million Tonnes 达到1498亿澳元。这个数字是澳大利亚与其第二大贸易国日本之间的贸易量两倍以上。但 JAN 2009 是，关于中国经济的报道数量大幅增长的同 184 Million Tonnes 时，其分析质量却很难跟上。 JAN 2010 自从去年6月上海股市泡沫破灭，如果你相信 268 Million Tonnes 诸多报纸的头版头条，就意味着接受中国经济正在急速下滑的现实，而澳大利亚所能期待的 JAN 2011 最好结局就是它能就此止刹，而不要崩溃。 274 Million Tonnes 但具讽刺意味的是，事实是中国向澳大利亚 JAN 2012 购买的商品和服务甚至比以前更多了。以下列 295 Million Tonnes 举一些事实。2014年至2015年： JAN 2013 • 澳大利亚出口至中国的矿产和燃料为556亿美 357 Million Tonnes 元，5年前这个数字为357亿澳元，出口至日本的量为213亿美元。 JAN 2014 • 澳大利亚出口至中国的农产品为90亿澳元， 430 Million Tonnes 5年前这个数字为37亿美元，出口至美国的量 JAN 2015 为52亿美元。 553 Million Tonnes • 澳大利亚出口至中国的服务为88亿澳元，5年前这个数字为55亿澳元，出口至美国的量为 JAN 2016 71亿澳元。 608 Million Tonnes 自2000年代开始，中国始终是澳大利亚经济 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 中的最大亮点。那为什么这些消极情绪还是满天飞呢？部分原因或可归结为，对于中国的经济规模和结构已经改变及这种改变所带来的巨大机会，人们还缺乏了解。自2008年起，中国的经济总量增长了两倍多。现在，中国就购买力而言，已是世界最大的经济体，按美元计算是世界第二大经济体。这意味着中国每年的经济都在一个更大的基数上增长。2015年的经济增长率为6.9%，购买 • Huawei, the world’s largest flights to Australia were from Beijing, Shanghai, 力增加的量比2005年要多三分之二，而2005年 telecommunications equipment Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Now there are direct 的增长率为11.4%. manufacturer. flights from 11 Chinese hubs, including inland 购买力的提升可用于方方面面的使用，从买 • BGI, the supplier of 50% of the world’s gene success stories such as Chengdu, Chongqing, 皮尔巴拉的铁矿，巴罗萨山谷的葡萄酒到黄金 sequencing capacity. Wuhan and Xian. 海岸的度假。 • BYD, the world’s largest supplier of The lesson for Australia in all this is clear. 中国对其第二产业（工业和建筑）的萧条情 rechargeable batteries. Rather than endlessly looking for ghosts in 况以及固定资产投资减缓是有些担忧。 • DJI, which produces 70% of the world’s China’s economy, a better bet would be to 但不可忽略的是，服务业和消费正大力推动 civilian drones. assume that China is following the same 着中国经济的发展。 And then there’s the evidence that rising development path travelled by its neighbours 去年，服务业占GDP50.5%，整整比第二产 Chinese incomes are spreading beyond the just a couple decades earlier. In 2012, Ken 业高出10个百分点。并且，消费占据中国GDP tier-one metropolises of Shenzhen, Beijing, Henry, author of Australia in the Asian Century 增长量的三分之二，而2014年只占二分之一。 Shanghai and Guangzhou. white paper, argued that we must invest to 服务业和消费日益成为增长重点并不意味 By 2022, McKinsey estimates that 84% of ensure that Australians are endowed with 着澳大利亚和中国的贸易将会减少。相反，这 China’s middle class, already the world’s largest, capabilities that are relevant to reaping the 意味着我们将打开新的合作领域。2010年至 will live outside these cities. benefits of China’s rise, and that of the region as 2011年，铁矿占据澳大利亚出口至中国商品的 In Australia we don’t have to look far to see a whole. Three years have now passed. The 56.4%。到2014年至2015年，这个数字已降至 this transformation. In 2011, the only direct sooner we get started the better. 46.6%。

中国进口：铁矿石及精矿：大洋洲（澳大利亚）

The services sector and consumption are now driving China's economy.

商道

H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 25

OPINION

快谈

ALL SECTOR YEAR TO DATE ENROLMENTS BY TOP 10 NATIONALITIES BY STATE/TERRITORY FOR DECEMBER 2015 截止至2015年12月前十大国籍在各州的入学人数 NATIONALITY 国籍

NSW 新洲

VIC 维洲

QLD 昆洲

SA 南澳

WA 西澳

TAS 塔洲

NT 北领地

ACT 首府

TOTAL 总数

° CHINA 中国

63,379

58,064

19,250

12,711

6,987

1,497

160

6,154

170,212

° INDIA 印度

16,680

31,758

12,711

3,489

6,139

726

265

732

72,504

° VIETNAM 越南

9,613

13,181

2,630

1,380

2,123

454

29,575

° SOUTH KOREA 南韩

13,663

4,713

6,607

941

1,946

193

603

28,725

° THAILAND 泰国

18,491

5,611

2,376

243

888

198

27,965

° BRAZIL 巴西

11,256

2,752

7,102

833

2,628

24,672

° MALAYSIA 马来西亚

4,389

10,455

2,924

1,769

3,549

632

382

24,123

° NEPAL 尼泊尔

12,077

3,617

1,995

431

885

382

304

115

19,807

° INDONESIA 印度尼西亚

10,978

5,160

921

404

1,406

158

244

19,300

° PAKISTAN 巴基斯坦

6,601

6,400

883

276

1,460

311

16,091

° OTHER 其他国家

74,079

54,093

45,852

9,612

22,473

1,544

938

3,563

212,211

TOTAL 总数

243,206

195,804

103,251

32,089

50,484

5,269

2,160

12,830

645,185

SOURCE: AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT, DEPARTMENT OF DEDICATION AND TRAINING

去年澳大利亚出口至中国的铁矿石总量达历史新高，与2014年相比增加了9%。但是铁矿石在贸易中的相对重要性在某种程度上已降低，因为中国对于其他澳大利亚商品和服务的需求急剧增加。就旅游业来说：去年来澳大利亚旅游的中国人数为102万，共计消费77亿澳元。2010年初，澳大利亚旅游局预测最好的情况将在2020 年出现，中国游客届时将消费90亿澳元。现在他们估计这个数字更有可能为130亿澳元。2024年至2025年，中国游客消费预计将占据澳大利亚国际旅游总消费的44%，这个数字相当惊人。再看教育：去年中国被澳大利亚学校和大学录取的人数达到170,212人，与2014年相比增加了12.8%，与印度留学生数量相比超过10万人次。中国服务和消费主导的经济进一步增长的潜力还很大。在美国，服务业占GDP的78.1%，中国为50.5%；美国消费占GDP的80%，然而在中国，这个数据仅仅为50%出头。因此，即便你不是信心满满，也能了解中国释放这种潜能的前景乐观。很多经济学家几年来一直担心中国也许会陷入“中等收入国家陷阱”，其实中国的很多地方已在实现高收入方面取得成功。 2014年，深圳的人均收入为149497元或

26 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

24259美元。在深圳的技术核心区南山区，人均收入为49730美元。与韩国和香港特别行政区相比，这个数字分别为27971美元和40170美元。当然，深圳仅是中国293个地市级城市之一。但是硅谷也只是美国很小的一部分。我们需考虑的是深圳告诉我们，无论中国的经济有多少局限性，实现高水平的人均收入都大有可为。让人惊讶的是2014年，研发支出占深圳GDP 的4.02%，与香港特别行政区相比，这个数字是 0.74%。深圳是很多行业领先的制造和技术公司的全球总部，包括： • 腾讯，其桌面平台应用QQ和手机即时消息应用程序微信拥有超过10亿的月活跃用户。 • 华为，世界最大的电信设备制造商。 • 华大基因研究院，50%世界基因测序能力供应商。 • 比亚迪，世界最大的充电电池供应商。 • 大疆创新科技有限公司，生产世界70%的民用无人机。而且还有证据表明中国人的收入增长正延伸至深圳、北京、上海和广州等一线城市以外的地区。麦肯锡估计到2022年，84%的中国中产阶级（现已是世界人数最多的中产阶级）将居住在这些大城市以外。在澳大利亚，我们无须将目光放远就能看到这些转变。2011年，到澳大利亚的直航航班仅

商道

来自北京、上海、广州和深圳。现在中国11个枢纽城市拥有澳大利亚直航航班，包括内地的成都、重庆、武汉和西安。澳大利亚需从中学习的经验非常清晰。不必对中国经济中的一些磕磕碰碰过于杞人忧天，更好的做法是认清中国正走着其邻居二十年前同样走过的发展之路。2012年，“亚洲世纪中的澳大利亚”白皮书的作者肯恩 ∙亨利就主张澳大利亚必须培植从中国的经济增长其带动的区域整体增长中获益的能力。现在已三年过去了，而我们越早开始，结果越好。

Prof. James Laurenceson Deputy Director, Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) University of Technology, Sydney 詹姆斯·罗文森教授悉尼科技大学澳中关系研究所副所长

收购商业写字楼和住宅开发用地，快谈

人脉定输赢

OPINION

ACQUISITION OF COMMERCIAL BUILDING & RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT SITES IS ALL ABOUT WHO YOU KNOW Introducing Jie Feng of Harrells & Feng Group Today’s commercial real estate market is internationally competitive. That’s why you need a commercial property agent who’s a global citizen: someone at home in Sydney as well as Shanghai. When you meet Jie, you say ‘hello’ to a whole new world.

Extend your reach Jie’s extensive network in China and Australia means she can help to find the right property for the right buyer. She maintains a roster of powerful clients and knows exactly how to match them, so you get real, genuine offers from serious buyers.

Isn’t it time for you to meet Jie? Contact Jie now at +61 (0) 447204967, or head to harrellsfeng.com.au. Because your time is your greatest assets and she is here to help. 今日收购商业写字楼和住宅开发用地的竞争已硝烟全球，想要成为赢家，您必须找对人，您需要一个拥有全球视野的行家为您导航。冯婕是您最好的选择。来自 Harrells & Feng Group －冯婕，将以丰富的人脉和专业的视角，带您开拓澳洲商业地产新世界。

决胜之眼界－国际资产收购需要敏锐精准高效调动资源。借助在新南威尔士大学的专项学习和15年金融地产界的的从业经验，深谙澳大利亚金融法律系统及房产市场的冯婕能够最有效的为您发掘到您想要的投资机会，并为您在澳洲组建一个有效的团队来为您的投资项目进行调研和实施，最终设计出最可行的收购方案，冯婕和她的团队将会为您的决投资策保驾护航，以助您拓展在澳洲的商业版图。

开创多赢未来更多信息，请致电冯婕 +61 (0) 447.204.967 或访问 harrellsfeng.com.au. 我们知道，您的时间宝贵。所以，您只需告诉冯婕您的要求，剩下的请交给冯婕和她的团队，她和她的团队期待与您合作，共创多赢的未来！

致电 CALL

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+61 (0) 447 204 967 了解更多信息

+61 (0) 447 204 967 FOR MORE INFORMATION Suite 2, 315 Anzac Parade, Kingsford NSW 2032 jie@harrellsfeng.com.au | harrellsfeng.com.au

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 27

OPINION WELCOME

快谈欢迎

澳大利亚中国总商会简介澳大利亚中国总商会是中国驻澳大利亚的中资企业的联合组织，为非营利性的社团，成立于2006 年。截止2016年2月，共有268家会员单位，分布在新南威尔士州、维多利亚州、西澳大利亚州和昆士兰州。会员业务涉及能源、矿产、贸易、金融、通信、运输、房地产、制造、旅游农牧业等多个领域。总部设在悉尼，并分别在悉尼、墨尔本、珀斯和布里斯班建有四个分会。总商会目前有27名理事，其中设有1位会长和4位副会长。各分会会长由总商会会长或副会长兼任。目前、悉尼分会共114家会员单位，业务范围包括能源、矿产、贸易、金融、

运输、旅游、制造、科技等多个行业。珀斯分会共 54家会员单位，主要由国内大型的矿产、钢铁、油气等资源类企业组成；墨尔本分会共52家会员单位主要以科技、制造、能源类企业为主；布里斯班分会目前共48家会员单位，主要以能矿企业为主。总商会的宗旨是为会员服务，维护会员的合法权益，促进中澳经济贸易关系的发展和企业间的交流，为会员在澳大利亚和中国的业务发展发挥桥梁和纽带作用。澳大利亚中国总商会现任会长是中国银行悉尼分行行长兼澳大利亚地区总代表胡善君先生，胡先生同时兼任悉尼分会会长。

Brief Introduction of China Chamber of Commerce in Australia China Chamber of Commerce in Australia (or CCCA for short) was founded in April 2006 and is a non-profit national organization jointly formed by trade associations representing Chinese investors across Australia. The CCCA has 27 directors in its management, with four branches and currently 268 members across New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia and Queensland. Sydney branch has 114 members, Perth branch has 54 members, Melbourne branch has 52 members and Brisbane branch has 48 members by the end of February 2016. The business scope of the membership covers a wide range of industries including of energy, mining, trade, finance,communication,

transportation, real estate, manufacturing, tourism, agriculture and animal husbandry. The Mission of the CCCA is to provide services to its members, protect their lawful rights, and promote the development of China-Australia economic and trade relations and exchanges between companies in both countries. The organization aims to serve as a bridge between Australia and China to facilitate the business development of its members in the two countries. The Chairman of CCCA is Mr.Hu Shanjun, who is General Manager & Country HeadAustralia of Bank of China, and he also chairs CCCA Sydney Branch.

www.chinachamber.org.au

2 8 || HIGHER H IGH ER VIEW VIEW BUSIN BUSINEESSSS 12

商道

OPINION

快谈

人民币即时结算：企业获实惠

REALTIME RMB DELIVERS REAL BENEFITS TO BUSINESS Cash flow through the supply chain is a critical issue for businesses trading across borders, and when the deals are being done in the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), there has historically been an added layer of complexity. For Australian and Chinese businesses, however, those complications are a thing of the past due to the settlements platform jointly developed by the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) and the Bank of China, Sydney Branch. For more than a year now, participant banks supporting bilateral trade on behalf of companies in Australia and China have been leveraging the ASX Austraclear market infrastructure to make and take payments in RMB. As a result, these transactions can be settled as fast as if they were domestic Australian dollar transactions. This has reduced settlement times from a matter of hours, and even overnight, to around 30 minutes for settlement in China and within a matter of minutes in Hong Kong. “We are using the same set of rules and regulations that people use today for settling their Australian dollar payments through Austraclear, so it delivers the same confidence and efficiency,” says Helen Lofthouse, ASX’s Executive General Manager, Derivatives and OTC Markets. “The settlement is STP (straight through processing) to the receiving bank and then to the end customer’s account, so it’s more like a cash transfer than a foreign exchange transaction.” Simultaneous RMB settlement became a possibility after the Australian dollar became only the third world currency after the US dollar and Japanese yen to be directly convertible to RMB in 2013.

Helped along by the signing of a free trade agreement in 2015, bilateral trade between China and Australia is worth more than A$100 billion each year. While only a small portion of that is settled through Austraclear, volumes are rising as more participant banks understand the benefits it provides their customers and become comfortable with using the infrastructure. From the businesses’ perspective the system is making the RMB available for cash flow purposes instantaneously and with no delay. This makes the RMB a part of their working capital, rather than having to wait for overnight processing or experiencing some other kind of delay from a process which is not STP. Those exporting to China using ‘cash against documents’, for example, only release the title documents for the goods when they receive the payment. This could take up to two days but by using Austraclear they can do that within 20 minutes or so and have that money cleared and in their account. And as soon as they receive the proceeds, the exporter can authorise freight forwarders in-country to transfer the documents and ultimately goods to the Chinese buyer. All of which speeds up trade and creates better cash flow management. The advantages of the infrastructure extend to companies throughout the supply chain and in other countries, with examples of Australian corporates buying parts from suppliers in New Zealand as well as China and Taiwan. The Australian company is invoiced in RMB and they have to pay that back in real time, and now they are able to do that with RMB back to NZ and Taiwan as well, and as fast. 商道

by Nathalie Antoine, RMB Business Specialist and Director - Westpac

The ASX’s Helen Lofthouse sees the growth of RMB settlements through Austraclear as part of a continued build out of an offshore RMB hub in Australia. “There is an opportunity now that we have these payment capabilities to create more domestic RMB denominated products out of Australia,” she says. “We are working on the ability to issue RMB denominated bonds for either offshore or domestic issuers, made possible by the growth in cash settlement liquidity. “And from that, we are then thinking about the opportunities we might have to create derivatives products around the RMB.” The emergence of Australia as an offshore RMB hub is simply part of the growing globalisation of the Chinese currency, a move which will pass another signpost in October when the RMB joins the International Monetary Fund’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) facility, taking its place alongside the US dollar, the Euro, Japanese Yen and British Pound. This is a very big step in terms of the RMB’s acceptance at the most important international institution. It’s another major sign of China opening up to global markets and a commitment to the fact that making it a truly global currency is now irreversible.

供

应链现金流是跨境交易中的重要问题，而在以人民币进行交易时，其复杂程度更高。但是，对于澳中两国的企业而言，得益于澳大利亚证券交易所和中国银行悉尼分行联合开发的结算平台，相关复杂问题已经不复存在。 H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 2 9

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Become a member today www.acbc.com.au NSW

QLD

VIC

TAS

OPINION

快谈

一年多来，众多银行积极参与澳中企业双边贸易，利用澳大利亚证交所结算系统 Austraclear市场基础设施，实现人民币支付与收款。现在，人民币相关交易的结算已与澳大利亚国内澳元交易同样迅捷。中国内地的结算时间已由几小时甚至隔日结算缩短到30分钟左右，香港结算甚至缩减至几分钟。 “Austraclear结算系统所采用的规则与现时澳元支付的程序完全相同，所以，其可信度与效率也旗鼓相当。”澳大利亚证交所金融衍生产品及OTC市场执行总经理Helen Lofthouse如是说。 “结算采用的是收款银行直通式处理（STP），然后转向至终端客户账户，虽说是外汇业务，其实更类似于现金调拨。” 2013年，澳元成为继美元和日元之后第三个与人民币实现直接兑换的货币，人民币即时结算成为可能。得益于2015年中澳《自由贸易协定》的签署，中澳双边贸易总额超过一千亿澳元。虽然仅有一小部分通过Austraclear进行结算，但是，越来越多的参与银行了解该系统为其客户所带来的好处，对基础设施满意度也不断提高，而运用该系统进行交易的金额也在不断增加。从企业的角度来看，该系统实现了人民币现金流的即时性，交易无延迟。

这就使得人民币成为其流动资本的一部分，而无需因尚未采用直通式处理等待隔日完成交易或遭到其它延迟。例如，出口至中国的“凭单据付款”业务，收到付款时需要出具货物所有权文件，可能需要多达两天的时间。但是，采用Austraclear 系统之后，20分钟之内即可完成结算，资金收入囊中。出口商收到款项即可授权国内转运公司将有关文件及其相关货物转运至中国买家。全程交易速度大幅提升，实现了更好的现金流管理。有关基础设施的优势也延伸到供应链全线及其它国家企业，比如澳大利亚企业从新西兰、台湾和中国大陆供应商处购买零部件等。澳大利亚企业可以开具人民币发票并即时进行支付，现在，这一便利也适用于与新西兰和台湾企业交易，同样迅捷高效。澳大利亚证交所执行总经理Helen Lofthouse认为，通过Austraclear系统，人民币结算交易将成为持续建造澳大利亚离岸人民币枢纽的一部分，其交易额将不断增加。 “现在正是我们利用这些支付条件在澳大利亚创造更多人民币计价产品的大好时机。” 她说。 “随着现金结算流动性的增加，我们正着力为离岸和本土发行商开发人民币债券。” “基于此，我们也在考虑围绕人民币开发金融衍生产品的机会。” 商道

澳大利亚成为离岸人民币枢纽只是中国货币全球化发展的一部分，是人民币继美元、欧元、日元和英镑之后于十月份被纳入国际货币基金组织特别提款权（SDR）而通过又一标杆的重大举措。就人民币而言，这是体现其被最重要国际机构所接受的巨大飞跃。这也是中国对全球市场开放的又一重大标志及推进人民币成为真正全球性货币承诺的实际举措。

Nathalie Antoine RMB Business Specialist and Director - Westpac 纳萨莉·安东尼西太平洋银行人民币业务专家及董事

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 31

INSIGHT

洞察

自贸协定将促进农业经济繁荣

FTA SPELLS BOOM FOR FARMING A bilateral Free Trade Agreement with China will not only put Australia on a level playing field with other nations, it will put the country at an advantage over some of the other major food and fibre competitors into the Chinese market. Australian food and fibre exports to China have risen dramatically in recent years, and there is great optimism they will continue to do so. Indeed, rising demand from China was a pivotal reason why agribusiness was recently identified by Deloitte as a key growth area of the Australian economy in coming decades. However until now, Australian producers and exporters have faced competitive disadvantages in penetrating the Chinese market compared to nations that already have an FTA with China, such as ASEAN, New Zealand and Chile. A bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China will not only put Australia on a level playing field with these nations, it will put Australia at an advantage over some of the other major food and fibre competitors into the Chinese market, such as the US, European Union and Canada.

A FOCUS ON BEEF

Deloitte Access Economics has recently modelled the economic impacts of the China-Australia FTA on the Australian economy, including on different parts of agriculture such as the cattle and beef industry. The existing tariff on Australian beef imports into China is between 12% and 25%, and our modelling is based on complete tariff removal as at a decade from now. There is also an existing 10% tariff on live cattle. However, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, much of the Australian live cattle imports into China are pure bred, and this type of live cattle import does not currently attract a tariff. As

32 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

such, it is the removal of the tariff on beef (as opposed to live cattle) that has the largest direct impact on the Australian cattle and beef industries. While there is a danger in modelling such complex systems, our modelling based simply on the removal of Chinese tariffs on Australian beef throws up some interesting results including: • An incremental 1% rise in the farm gate price of live cattle relative to the price if the FTA was not in place. Applied to a 350 kg yearling valued at $800, this equates to approximately $8 per head. This is primarily a function of rising demand for Australian beef in China, as it becomes relatively cheaper to Chinese consumers. • The higher farm gate price flows through to a higher processed (butchered) beef price, of just over three cents a kilogram. • The higher prices for cattle and beef cause a supply response from Australian farmers. The volume of output of cattle increases by approximately 2.2% or approximately 280,000 head applied to the size of today’s national herd. • There is also an increase of nearly 3% in the volume of processed beef produced, or an additional 60,000 tonnes. • Exports of chilled or frozen beef increase by more than 6%. It is notable that the volume of beef exports increase by more than the volume produced. This means that domestic consumption of beef has fallen, as expected given the higher domestic beef prices. The recent downward trend in average per capita beef consumption in Australia is therefore likely to be accentuated by the FTA. • The combination of higher prices and higher output sees overall value-add in beef cattle rise by approximately 2.5%, or $350 million applied to today’s industry.

商道

by Jackie White and Daniel Terrill Deloitte Access Economics

NOT ALL GOOD NEWS

Many other sectors of Australian agriculture will also benefit from the FTA – however, it is not all good news. For agricultural industries that either do not export to China, or are not in line for tariff reduction, there may be small declines in output. This reflects both exchange rate effects (the overall impacts on Australia from the FTA are dominated by the benefits to the coal industry), and a general switch of activity, including land use switching, to those sectors that have become relatively more profitable because of the tariff removal. These results quantify impacts on two parts of the beef supply chain – on farm and processing. How the impacts flow through the supply chain will be an interesting point to watch. Given the recent challenges in the Australian beef sector there may well be an opportunity for debt reduction, investment in innovation, accelerating farm succession plans, and some welcome tailwinds for those graziers looking to expand their business.

与

中国达成的双边自由贸易协定不仅将澳大利亚推上了与其它国家平起平坐的竞技场，同时亦为澳大利亚赋予了在中国市场上与其它主要食品和纤维竞争对手抗衡的相对优势。澳大利亚的对华食品和纤维出口近年来急剧攀升，并呈现继续增长的乐观态势。实际上，鉴于中国与日俱增的需求，德勤认为农业有望成为澳大利亚经济未来几十年内的一项重要增长支柱。但到目前为止，与那早就与中国签订自由贸易协定的国家相比（比如东盟、新西兰和智利），澳大利亚生产商和出口商在逐鹿中国市场的过程中依然面临着竞争上的劣势。

INSIGHT

洞察

与中国达成的双边自由贸易协定不仅将澳大利亚推上了与这些国家平起平坐的竞技场，同时亦为澳大利亚赋予了在中国市场上与其它主要食品和纤维竞争对手分庭抗礼的相对优势，包括美国、欧盟和加拿大。

• •

聚焦牛肉德勤经济研究所近期公布了一项关于中澳自由贸易协定对澳大利亚经济影响几何的经济模型，其中涵盖了不同的农业部门，比如养牛及牛肉产业。目前中国向澳大利亚牛肉征收12-25%的关税，而我们的经济模型基于关税被彻底取消的前提（从现在起十年之后取消）；此外，中国还对活牛征收10%的关税。但是，根据外交贸易部透露，从澳大利亚进口到中国的大部分活牛都是用于繁殖，而此种类型的活牛进口目前不用缴纳关税。因此，取消牛肉（而非活牛）关税才会给澳大利亚的养牛和牛肉产业带来最大的直接影响。为此种复杂体系建立经济模型可能存在一定的风险；我们的经济模型仅仅基于中国不再向澳大利亚牛肉征收关税的简单前提，并产生了一些颇有意思的结果，包括： • 活牛农场出售价相对于自由贸易协定未签署之时的价格上升了1%。假设一头350公斤重的一岁活牛定价为800美元，那么价格涨幅相

• •

•

当于每头8美元。这主要缘于中国消费者对澳大利亚牛肉需求的增长；因为对中国消费者而言，牛肉相对变得更便宜了。更高的农场出售价带动加工（屠宰）牛肉的价格每公斤上涨了3美分。更高的活牛和牛肉价格令澳大利亚农场主迅速做出响应。活牛出栏数量增加了大约 2.2%——按照当前澳大利亚全国的活牛数量，相当于增加了28万头。加工牛肉产量增长了近3%，相当于增加了6 万吨。冷冻牛肉的出口数量增长了6%以上。值得注意的是，牛肉出口数量超过了生产数量。这意味着国内牛肉价格的上涨导致了国内牛肉消费数量的下滑。因此，随着《自由贸易协定》的签署，澳大利亚近年来人均牛肉消费量的下滑态势极可能会加剧。价格和产量的双双增长使肉牛的整体附加值上升了2.5%左右，相当于3.5亿美元。

未必人人都有好日子《自由贸易协定》亦将惠及澳大利亚的众多其它农业部门，但并非每个农业部门都能过上好日子。对于那些既没有向中国出口商品、亦无法享受关税下调优惠的农业部门，产量可能会略有下滑。这主要归因于汇率的影响（《自由贸易

商道

协定》对澳大利亚的总体影响取决于其给煤炭工业所带来的好处），以及由于取消关税之后经营活动普遍向相对更赚钱的产业部门转移（包括土地用途的转移）所带来的影响。这些结果量化了《自由贸易协定》对牛肉供应链两个环节的影响——农场环节以及加工环节。这些影响将如何传导到整个供应链？这将成为一个颇有意思的观察方向。考虑到澳大利亚牛肉产业近年来所面临的重重困难，该协定很可能是牛肉产业减少债务、投资创新、加快实施农场继承规划安排以及某些牧场主扩大经营的大好翻身机会。

Jackie White and Daniel Terrill Deloitte Access Economics 杰克·维特和丹尼尔·特里尔德勤经济研究所

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 33

全球专递

GLOBAL SNAPSHOT

In this issue we look at the enormous role non-resources industries are playing in AustraliaChina trade, with figures provided by the UTS Australia-China Relations Institute and HSBC. 今期我们来探讨非资源产业在中国贸易中所扮演的角色，数据由悉尼科技大学澳大利亚－中国关系研究院以及汇丰银行提供。 Source: Tourism Research Australia

TOURIST SPENDING IN AUSTRALIA, 2015 访澳游客消费金额

$3.5B $3.1B

$1.4B

$7.7B

ENGLISH 英国人

AMERICANS 美国人

JAPANESE 日本人

CHINESE 中国人

9% 10%

ROOM FOR GROWTH 增长空间

$2.6B

Source: Tourism Economics

21million

Chinese households reached annual income of US$35,000—which makes international travel affordable—over 2003-2013, and 61 million will join them by 2023. 中国家庭于2003-2013年期间年收入达到了3万5千美金，因此国际旅游变得触手可及，2023年预计有6100万人加入这个行列。

22%

NEW ZEALANDERS 新西兰人

SHARE OF CHINA’S OUTBOUND TOURISM 中国出境旅游的比率

Source: CEIC database 2013

SOUTH KOREA 韩国

4.3%

UNITED STATES 美国

JAPAN 日本

1.9%

RUSSIA 俄国

2010

2015

The total number of Chinese visitors to Australia more than doubled 2010-2015.

跟2010年相比，2015年中国游客访澳总人数增加了一倍以上。

6% (1.4b) PASSPORT 护照

of China’s 1.4 billion population hold a passport

中国14亿人口中的6%持有护照。

34 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

0.9% AUSTRALIA 澳大利亚 (down from 1.2% in 2000) 0.8% Source: UN World Tourism Organisation; China National Tourism Administration; CLSA

ANNUAL OUTBOUND TOURISTS FROM CHINA 全年中国出境游客数量 2000

est.

200 million

2014 2020

10 million 商道

109 million

AUSTRALIA’S MERCHANDISE EXPORTS - % OF TOTAL BY COUNTRY 澳大利亚商品出口

Per cent of total exports 出口总额百分比 OTHER ASIA (INCLUDING CHINA) 其他亚太地区（包括中国）

JAPAN 日本 75 50 25 %

1950

1990

75 50 25 %

2015

75 50 25 %

1950

1990

75 50 25 %

2015 EUROPE 欧洲

75 50 25 %

1990

75 50 25 %

2015

Source: ABS

CONTRIBUTIONS TO REAL GDP GROWTH (Y-O-Y)

Source: ABS; HSBC estimates

让国内生产总值实际增长的参与者

Services exports are running ahead of resources

2015

1950

1990

2015

PPTS

1990

2015

YTD as of July, by nationality 截止至7月，按国籍分布

0 RESOURCES EXPORTS 资源出口

1950

INTERNATIONAL STUDENT ENROLMENTS IN AUSTRALIA 澳大利亚国际学生入学人数

2.0 1.5

1990

CHINA 中国 JAPAN 日本

1950

OTHER ASIA (EXCLUDING CHINA) 其他亚太地区（不包括中国）

REST OF THE WORLD 世界其他地区

100

200

300

400

500

’000s

2002

NET SERVICES EXPORTS 净服务出口服务

CHINA 中国

1.0

2003

0.5

2004

0.0

2005

-0.5

2006

INDIA 印度 VIETNAM 越南 KOREA 韩国 THAILAND 泰国 OTHER 其他

-1.0

MAR-2000

MAR-2003

MAR-2006

MAR-2009

MAR-2012

MAR-2015

2007 2008

AUSTRALIA’S BUSINESS SERVICES EXPORTS TO CHINA

Source: ABS

出口到中国的澳大利亚商业服务 600 500 400 300

2010

INSURANCE AND PENSION SERVICES 保险和养老金服务 INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY 知识产权

2011

TELECOMS AND IT 电信和IT 2012

OTHER BUSINESS SERVICES 其他商业服务 FINANCIAL SERVICES 金融服务

2013

200

2014

100 AUSm 2000

2009

2015 2002

2004

2006

80%

China’s economy is 80% larger than it was seven years ago. 中国经济比7年前增长了80%。

2008

2010

2012

2014

FACTBOX 数据库

Source: Australian Education International

70%

14%

澳大利亚服务业占其 GDP70%。

中国是澳洲最大的服务业出口市场，2014年大概占服务业出口总额的14%（80亿澳元）。

The services sector accounts for 70% of Australian GDP.

商道

Source: HSBC

China is Australia’s largest market for services exports, at around 14% of services exports in 2014 (A$8bn).

H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 3 5

贵宾团队出行解决方案 Royale Limousines- Solutions for VIP Group Travel In the last edition of Higher View Business, you touched on group travel services options. How important is this part your business? Group travel is a core part of our business and with the opening of the International Convention Centre Sydney (ICC Sydney) in Darling Harbour scheduled for late 2016, we are certainly expecting a a surge in activity in the Group Travel sector and especially from China. Judging by the number of famils we have been doing lately, this world class venue has certainly drawn the attention of many overseas conference organisers.

在上一期的《商道》中，您谈到了团体旅游服务。目前，这部分业务对贵公司而言重要性如何？团体旅游是我们业务的核心组成部分。随着位于达令港的悉尼国际会议中心计划在2016年后期开业，我们充满信心地期待着团体旅游活动出现蓬勃增长——特别是迎接来自中国的游客。从我们近期接待的熟客数量来看，这个世界级的会展场地无疑吸引了众多海外会议组织者的关注。

What would you say are the success factors for Group Travel? Firstly, it’s critical to understand the requirements of organisers and the participants. Secondly, it’s important to have a realistic and detailed logistics and transportation plan to help them achieve their objectives. Royale has a highly experienced team of travel managers and co-ordinators to help develop a ground transport plan to ensure all transfers can be completed with the most suitable vehicle types and within budget. Together with our core team of highly skilled operations managers and professional chauffeurs Royale ensures all transfers are completed smoothly. Furthermore, with many VIPs and diginitaries, it is

criticial to offer our guests the utmost in privacy and safety at all times, and this is a particularly important consideration for our Chinese clients. Finally, being available at all times is important for our clients during a major event or conference. Royale operates 24 hours 7 days so is in a good position to respond and adapt to any changes.

您认为团体旅行服务的成功因素都包括哪些？首先，清楚了解组织者和参团人员的需求非常关键。其次，拟定务实而详细的物流与运送计划，帮助他们实现既定目标，这一点也很重要。 Royale Limousines拥有经验丰富的旅行管理者和协调专员，能够协助团队制定地面出行计划，从而确保使用最适合的车型完成所有接送工作，并且严格遵守预算。再加之我们技能娴熟的运作管理者和专业司机核心团队，每一次的人员运送都将顺利完成。此外，面对众多的贵宾及政要，为客户提供隐私保护和安全保障至关重要，这也是我们接待中国客户时一项尤为关键的考量因素。最后，在重大事件或会议期间为客户提供全天候服务的重要性亦不容小觑。为此，Royale Limousines推出了7X24小时的优质服务，能够随时待命，对各种行程变更作出响应和调整。

What are the typical sizes of Group Travel and what are the most popular vehicles used? Groups can range from 5 to 5,000 people and most often there will be VIPs arriving so we would use our luxury sedans which seat up to four people. The most popular would be our range of luxury people movers which seat 6 to 14 people. For large group transfers we use 30-54 seater coaches. Our exclusive service desk and parking bay at Sydney International Airport makes a good first impression for international conference participants and VIP guests.

团体旅游的人员规模通常是多少，哪些车型最受青睐？团队规模少则5人、多则可达5,000人，并且经常会有贵宾抵达，我们会安排最多可容纳四人的豪华房车来接送贵宾。而最受欢迎的，是乘坐6至14人的豪华商务车系列。对于大型团队，我们使用30至54座的旅游大巴。我们在悉尼国际机场设置了专属服务台和停车位，给国际会议参加者和贵宾留下了良好的第一印象。

Is there a recent group event which is memorable and why? The G20 in late 2014 was certainly a memorable event with Royale co-ordinating approx. 200 vehicles for transfers of VIPs and Heads of State in Brisbane. Royale was also called upon to provide luxury transport to Chinese film icon, Liu Xiaoqing while she was filming a television show in Sydney. We expect that with the growth of the Chinese travel market in the next five to ten years, that the dynamics of group travel will no doubt change. We look forward to working with our Chinese partners and clients to help them deliver excellent experiences for group travellers.

近期，贵公司完成了哪些值得回忆的团队接待活动，为何令人难忘？于2014年底举办的G20峰会，无疑是Royale Limousines在协调运作方面一次难忘的经历。我们共调用了200部车辆，用以在布里斯班接送贵宾和国家元首。还有一次令我们印象深刻的活动，就是为中国影视偶像刘晓庆提供豪华出行服务。当时，她正在悉尼拍摄一部电视节目。我们预计，伴随中国旅游市场未来五到十年的不断发展，团队出游的方式也势必改变。我们期待着与中国合作伙伴和客户携手努力，帮助他们为团体游客提供最卓越的体验。

SYDNEY • MELBOURNE • BRISBANE • CANBERRA • GOLD COAST 悉尼 • 墨尔本 • 布里斯本 • 堪培拉 • 黄金海岸 24/7 AIRPORT TRANSFERS • EXECUTIVE TRAVEL • CORPORATE EVENTS 24/7 机场接送服务 • 商务考察 • 商务活动

illustration by Bratislav Milenkovic @ Synergy Art

COVER STORY

封面故事

By Paul Bloxham, Chief economist Australia & New Zealand, HSBC Daniel Smith, Economist, HSBC 作者：保罗·布洛克斯汉姆，汇丰银行澳新分行的首席经济学家丹尼尔·史密斯，汇丰银行经济学家

3 8 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

商道

COVER STORY

封面故事

后资源经济时代，路在何方?

MOVING BEYOND RESOURCES

As China shifts from investment-led to consumer-driven growth, Australia will see more business opportunities emerge outside of mining. This is set to drive strong growth in Australia’s exports of high quality food and services like tourism and education. 随着中国从投资引导型经济增长模式转向消费驱动型经济增长模式，澳大利亚将发现更多矿业之外的商机，这些机遇势将带动澳大利亚优质食品和服务（比如旅游和教育）的出口增长。

espite the importance of the mining sector to Australia’s economic growth over the past decade, mining remains a small part of the overall economy, at around 10% of GDP. Being a capital -intensive industry, its share of employment is even smaller. Just 2% of Australia’s workforce is directly employed in mining. Australia’s economy is dominated by the services industries, which account for around 70% of GDP and over 80% of employment. Most of these services are consumed domestically, but a good deal are also exported. For instance, spending by foreign tourists on hotels, meals or tours is an ‘export’ of services. Given their collective size, the services sectors are key to the rebalancing of growth away from mining investment, and especially so for the labour market.

尽

管矿业部门在过去十年间有力推动了澳大利亚的经济增长，但矿业依然只是整体经济当中的一小部分，仅占到 GDP的10%左右。作为一个资本集约型产业，矿业部门的就业人数所占比例就显得更加微不足道了；在澳大利亚的全部就业人口当中，只有2%直接从事矿业活动。主宰澳大利亚经济命脉的是各种服务行业；它们对GDP的贡献率达到70%左右，并且就业人数亦超过了80%。大部分的服务业均面向本土市场，但也有为数不少的服务项目对外输出。例如，外国游客在酒店、餐饮或旅游方面的支出均属于服务业的“出口”。考虑其总体规模，服务行业部门将是澳大利亚实现经济增长再平衡、摆脱对矿业投资依赖的关键所在，对于劳动力市场而言尤其如此。随着中国经济的增长模式从投资导向型向消费驱动型转变，各种服务产业势将成为澳大利亚未来的经济增长点。中国目前已成为澳大利亚最大的服务输出目的地，占到2014年服务

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As China’s economy shifts its growth from being investment-led to being consumer-driven, Australia’s next growth opportunities are expected to increasingly come from the services sectors. China is already Australia’s largest market for its services exports, at around 14% of services exports in 2014 ($A8bn). We see opportunities for the tourism, education export, agriculture, health, business and financial services industries. But it is worth remembering that Australia’s commodities are still in demand. And, although the combination of a ramp-up in global supply and slower growth in Chinese investment have seen commodity prices fall, Australia is still seeing increased export volumes of key commodities, such as iron ore and LNG, particularly as Australia is a low cost and reliable supplier of these high-grade resources.

170%

Chinese visits to Australia have already risen strongly in recent years, increasing by around 170% since 2009. 前来澳大利亚旅游的中国游客数量迎来了强劲增长，与2009 年相比上升了170%左右。

出口总值的14%（80亿澳元）。旅游、教育、农业、医疗、商务和金融服务等行业均蕴藏着无限商机。值得一提的是，澳大利亚的商品依然广受消费者青睐。在全球商品供应量扩大及中国投资增速放缓的夹击之下，澳大利亚关键商品的出口数量却依然保持着增长态势(包括铁矿石和液化天然气)；这主要是由于澳大利亚历来是低成本优质矿产资源的可靠供应来源。

SERVICES EXPORTS ARE LARGER THAN THEY APPEAR

Resources exports account for a large share of Australia’s trade. So, at the outset, the key questions are: how big are Australia’s non- mining links with the rest of the world, and China in particular, and how do these compare to the links through the resources sector? Unfortunately, the answer to this question is not straightforward. On the basis of the value of exports, resources dominate the picture, both in terms of Australia’s overall exports and its exports to China. Resources exports account for 53% of the total value of Australia’s exports and 66% of Australia’s exports to China. Resources exports are a similar share of export volumes, at 63% of the total. But this is not the only way to answer the question and, depending on your perspective, may not be the right way. This is because, although resources dominate the value of Australia’s exports, services are a larger share of value-added.

服务出口规模之大并非一目了然资源出口在澳大利亚对外贸易活动中占很大的比重。因此，关键的问题是：澳大利亚非采矿行业与全球各大市场（尤其是中国）之间有多大关联？它们与资源型行业相比又是怎样一种状况？遗憾的是，这个问题尚没有直接的答案。在出口金额方面，无论是澳大利亚的出口总额还是澳大利亚对中国的出口额，资源类商品的地位都难以撼动。资源出口占澳大利亚总出口额的53%，以及澳大利亚对华总出口额的66%。资源出口亦占到商品出口总量的63%。但是，以上事实并非上述问题的唯一答案，基于您所取的视角，它也未必就是正确答案。这是因为虽然资源类商品在澳大利亚总出口额当中占据主导地位，但在提供附加值方面，各种服务则占据了更大的比重。

CHINESE OUTBOUND TOURISM IS TAKING OFF, FOLLOWING THE EARLIER PATTERNS OF JAPAN AND KOREA 中国出境旅游人数正迅速增长，与日本和韩国的早期的发展模式类同

Source: CEIC; HSBC

RESIDENT DEPARTURES AS PROPORTION OF TOTAL POPULATION 出发地占总人口比例 35%

JAPAN (FROM 1956) 日本（从1956年） KOREA (FROM 1972) 韩国（从1972） CHINA (FROM 1994) 中国（从1994） CH PROJECTION CH投影

30% 25%

2024: 242.1MN

2014: 116.6MN

20% 15%

2009: 47.6MN

10% 5% YEAR

40 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

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Value-added measures take account of the fact that services are used extensively as inputs in the production of manufactures and resources (for example, transport or technical services). Because services tend to be higher value-added than resources, they also tend to be more labour- intensive, which helps to explain why the rebalancing of growth away from mining is seeing a lift in employment growth. Estimates from the RBA, based on numbers from the World Input-Output Database, reveal that although services have only accounted for 22% of the value of Australia’s exports in recent years, they accounted for 41% on a value-added basis, which is a little ahead of resources exports (Kelly, G. and La Cava, G. 2014). The bottom line is: by these estimates, services exports are actually a larger share of the economy than resources exports. Another key factor to keep in mind is that the resources sector has very high foreign-ownership. Most estimates suggest that the resources sector is 80% foreign-owned and the LNG sector, which is an increasing share of Australia’s resources sector, has an even greater concentration of foreign ownership. So, if your purpose for looking at the economic statistics is to determine where the Australian dollar is headed, then you are probably best to look at export values. Commodity prices have been shown to have a strong relationship with movements in the currency over time. But if the purpose is to determine the overall effect of trade on the economy, services exports are more important than they appear in the values numbers.

THE NEXT TRADE OPPORTUNITIES

Resources exports, particularly iron ore and LNG, are set to continue to be a support for Australia’s export growth over the next couple of years. However, because Chinese demand has slowed and global supply has ramped up, the prices of these commodities have fallen. Resources sector investment is therefore falling and the lower prices have reduced the income from commodity exports. Australia’s next opportunities to take advantage of China’s continued development are likely to be outside of the resources sector. One growth area is travel services. In 2014, tourism spending in Australia was around 3% of GDP, with around one third of this driven by international tourists. Chinese visits to Australia have already risen strongly in recent years, increasing by around 170% since 2009. China is the single largest contributor to growth in visitor arrivals to Australia in recent years, although it is worth noting that other Asian economies have also seen strong growth. As Chinese middle class incomes rise, so too does their desire to travel. This has already seen significant growth in the number of Chinese travelling overseas. Outbound departures increased from 48m in 2009 to 117m in 2014.

MINING IS ONLY A SMALL SHARE OF AUSTRALIA’S GDP AND JOBS 矿业只占澳大利亚国民生产总

值和就业的一小部分

Source: ABS

GDP AND EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR 国内生产总值和就业－按行业分类

MINING SECTOR 采矿业

NON-MINING SECTORS 非采矿业

100

0 SHARE OF GDP

占GDP的比重

SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT 就业比例

SHARE OF GDP

占GDP的比重

SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT 就业比例

OTHER

RETAIL AND WHOLESALES

CONSTRUCTION

MANUFACTURING

HOUSEHOLD SERVICES

BUSINESS SERVICES

其他

制造业

零售和批发家政服务

建设

商业服务

附加值指标所侧重的是各项服务属于商品和资源的生产投入项这一事实（比如运输或技术服务）。由于服务往往比资源带来更高的附加值，故各项服务也往往更趋向于劳动密集型；这也很好地解释了为什么摆脱对矿业投资依赖的经济发展再平衡计划有望带来就业率的增长。据澳大利亚储备银行估算，基于“世界投入产出数据库” 中的数据，虽然近年来服务业仅占澳大利亚总出口额的22%，但从附加值角度来看服务业却占到了41%的比重，稍稍领先于资源出口（Kelly, G.和La Cava, G.，2014年）。最终结论就是：根据这些估算数据，服务出口在经济当中所占的比重要大于资源出口。另一项需要我们谨记的关键因素是，外资在资源产业部门中占到极高的比重。大部分的估算数据显示80%的资源产业部门由外资持有，而在澳大利亚资源产业中比重日益上升的天然气产业部门更是外资云集之地。因此，如果您查询经济统计数据的初衷是明确澳元主要流向哪些领域，那么您最好来了解一下各项出口额。商品价格已被证实与货币流动之间存在着千丝万缕的联系。但如果您的目的是掌握贸易活动对于经济的总体影响，那么服务出口的重要性要远甚于其所呈现的各项数据。未来的贸易机遇资源出口，尤其是铁矿石和液化天然气，将在未来数年内继续支撑着澳大利亚的出口增长。但是，由于中国需求的放缓以及全球供应量的攀升，此类商品的价格已跌去不少。因

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Excluding Hong Kong and Macau, Chinese departures to the rest of the world rose from 14m in 2009 to 33m in 2013 (the latest year for which data is available). Chinese appetite for overseas travel is expected to continue growing over coming years. As HSBC’s co-head of Asian economics, Frederic Neumann, wrote recently, even assuming a slower rise in resident departures than in recent years (in fact, we used the average pace of Japanese and Korean departures at similar levels of development), the number of Chinese tourists is projected to rise from some 117m last year to about 242m in 2024. And even that leaves China with only half the share of resident departures of Korea today. Assuming Australia’s share of Chinese tourist numbers (currently 0.8% of total Chinese departures) stays the same, those projections imply 1.9m Chinese visitors in 2024, up from about 900,000 in 2014. However, we expect that Australia’s share of the Chinese tourism market should increase over coming years, supported by rising Chinese middle class incomes (and thus increased demand), the likelihood that the Australian dollar will be lower than was the case over recent years, and growing population links between the two countries which are driving growth in the number of Chinese coming to Australia to visit friends and family. There also appears to be a trend of increasing desire of Chinese travellers to travel farther afield than Hong Kong and Macau. If Australia saw its share of the Chinese tourism market rise by even 0.2 percentage points to 1% (a share that was achieved as recently as 2010), the number of Chinese visitors in 2024 would be 2.4m. That’s roughly how many visitors Australia currently gets in a year from New Zealand and Europe combined. Based on the total visitor estimate of 2.4m in 2024, and assuming that 90% of these visits will be for the purpose of holidays or visiting friends and family (currently that proportion is 73%, up from 59% in 2010), we project that total spending by Chinese tourists in Australia could rise from A$1.7bn in the past year to A$5.7bn in 2024.

42 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

此，对资源部门的投资正在萎缩，而价格的下滑亦导致了商品出口收入的下降。澳大利亚未来如何继续充分利用中国持续发展势头的机遇应该是在资源产业之外的行业。旅游服务即是经济增长点之一。2014年，澳大利亚的旅游支出占到GDP的3%左右，其中约有三分之一来自于国际游客。近年来，前来澳大利亚旅游的中国游客数量迎来了强劲增长，与2009年相比上升了170%左右。虽然来自其它亚洲经济体的游客数量亦呈现出有力增长态势，但中国是近年来澳大利亚游客数量增长的最大单一客源国。随着中国中产阶段收入的增长，他们外出旅游的意愿也愈发强烈。这一点从中国出境游客数量的大幅增长（从2009年的4800万人次骤升至2014年的1.17亿人次）上可见一斑。除香港和澳门外，前往全球其它国家的中国游客数量已从2009 年的1400万人次攀升至2013年（有可用数据的最近年份）的 3300万人次。未来几年内，中国人对出境游的热情必将持续看涨。汇丰银行亚洲经济研究部联合主管弗雷德里克·诺伊曼在其近期发表的一篇文章中写道：即便假设离境居民数量的增长速度低于往年（实际上，我们参考了与中国处于类似发展水平的日本和韩国离境游客数量的平均增速），中国游客总数仍有望从去年的1.17亿人次左右上升至2024年的2.42亿人次。这种情况下，中国离境游客也仅占到现今韩国离境居民数量的一半。我们假定前往澳大利亚旅游的中国游客比重（目前占到中国离境游客总数的0.8%）保持不变，则访澳的中国游客数量将从2014年的90万人次上升至2024年190万人次。但是，考虑到中国中产阶段收入的增长（从而带动出游需求的增长）、澳元贬值的可能性以及两国人民之间日益深化的往来（进而带动来澳走亲访友游客数量的增长），我们预测未来几年内澳大利亚在中国旅游市场中所占的比重将会与日俱增。中国游客似乎越来越希望前往比香港和澳门更远的地方。即便澳大利亚在中国旅游市场中所占比重仅上升0.2%，即达到1%（澳大利亚曾于2010年达到过这个比重），则2024年来澳旅游的中国游客数量将达到240万人次。这个数量大约是当前每年来澳旅游的新西兰和欧洲两地游客的总和。基于2024年中国游客总数将达到240万人次的估算数据，并且假设90%的游客是为了度假或走亲访友（该比重已从 2010年的59%上升至73%），我们预测中国游客在澳大利亚的总支出将从去年的17亿澳元骤升至2024年57亿澳元。澳大利亚旅游局指出中国游客每次入境的平均支出均独占鳌头。但是，这项统计数据多多少少是因为来澳的中国人当中有很大比例是留学生所致。此类人员通常会逗留较长的时间，因此产生了较高的总支出。如果只考虑来澳度假或走亲访友的游客，则中国游客的支出仅处于平均水平。有意思的是，中国游客在澳大利亚的逗留时间也往往比其它国家的游客短得多，这表明中国游客的每日平均支出相当之高。中国游客（即旅行目的为“度假”的游客）在澳大利亚的平均逗留时间是9天，而所有国家游客的平均逗留时间是 25天。不过，中国游客在澳逗留期间的平均支出是2200澳元，与所有国家游客2400澳元的平均支出并非相去甚远。在每日支出方面，中国游客出手阔绰，平均达到每天250澳元，而所有国家游客的平均支出仅为100澳元。如果我们可以说服中国游客在澳大利亚逗留更长时间，则

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Tourism Australia reports that Chinese visitors have the highest average spend per visit. However, this statistic is somewhat skewed by the relatively high proportion of Chinese visitors that come to Australia for education. This type of visitor typically stays for an extended length of time and therefore has a high total spend. Looking only at visitors whose purpose of travel is a holiday or to visit family and friends shows Chinese visitors spend around the average. Interestingly, Chinese visits also tend be much shorter than the visits of other nationalities, suggesting that the average daily spend of Chinese visitors is quite high. The average Chinese tourist (purpose of travel simply ‘holiday’) spends just nine nights in Australia, compared to the average of 25 nights for all nationalities. And yet, the Chinese tourist spends an average of A$2,200 during their stay, not far off the overall average of A$2,400. In terms of per-night spend, Chinese tourists are comfortably the biggest spenders at around A$250 a night compared to the average for all nationalities of A$100 a night. If Chinese tourists could be persuaded to stay in Australia longer, tourism earnings could grow even further than the expected rise in visitor numbers would suggest. While the average Chinese tourist stays just nine nights, visitors from Hong Kong average 34 nights, Koreans average 36 nights and the Japanese average 20 nights. The growth in the tourism industry in Australia and expectations for further growth already appear to be lifting investment in the sector. The volume of construction work in the pipeline on short-term accommodation (for example, hotels and motels) has risen sharply over the past year. As of June 2015, the Australian Bureau of Statistics estimates that A$1.73bn of work was ‘yet to be done’ to short-term accommodation. So what can be done to further improve the outlook for tourism? Australia appears to be doing a lot right already in this regard. Recent research by Tourism Australia found that Australia ranked top for awareness and intention to visit amongst Chinese travellers. And yet, as we have discussed already, Australia’s share of the total outbound travel market is very small. The same Tourism Australia research put Australia in 10th place for actual visitation. Australia’s apparent underperformance may reflect the cost of travel. In the World Economic Forum’s 2015 Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index, Australia ranked 7th overall, but placed 138th out of 141 countries for price competitiveness. However, this may be changing. The lower Australian dollar should make it much more affordable for international visitors to come to Australia. We see the tourism sector as a key beneficiary of the lower exchange rate.

EDUCATION EXPORTS RISING

Over the past year, education exports were Australia’s third largest export earner, at around A$18bn, behind only

CHINESE VISITOR ARRIVALS HAVE BEEN RISING STRONGLY 中国游客人数正大幅上升 ANNUAL TOTALS 年度总额

Source: ABS

COUNTRY OF ORIGIN FOR SHORT-TERM ARRIVALS 出国短期旅游的国家

‘000

2000

1500

1000

500

0 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

ASIA (EXCL. CHINA)

EUROPE

NEW ZEALAND

OTHER

CHINA

亚太地区（不包括中国）其他国家

欧洲美国

新西兰中国

旅游收入的增加将远远超过游客数量的预期增长。虽然中国游客的平均逗留时间仅为9天，但香港游客、韩国游客以及日本游客的平均留澳时间则分别达到34天、36天以及20天。澳大利亚旅游业的发展以及该行业的上升预期亦推动了该行业的投资。与短期住宿相关的在建工程项目（例如酒店、汽车旅馆）数量在去年呈现高速增长的态势。截至2015年 6月，据澳大利亚统计局估算，“尚未竣工”的短期住宿类工程项目总价值达到17.3亿澳元。那么，为了进一步改善旅游业的前景，我们又可以做些什么呢？在这一方面，澳大利亚似乎已在稳步推进多项举措。澳大利亚旅游局近期开展的一项研究表明：澳大利亚是中国游客最了解、最想去的目的地。但是，正如我们在前面所述的，澳大利亚在中国的出境游市场中所占的比重微乎其微。澳大利亚旅游局的这项研究亦显示澳大利亚在实际成行指标方面仅排在第十位。显而易见，澳大利亚欠佳的表现可以归结于高昂的在澳旅游成本。根据世界经济论坛2015年的“旅行和旅游竞争力指数”，在所有141个国家当中，澳大利亚的综合排名为第7位，但在价格竞争力方面仅排在末尾的第138位。不过，这种状况极可能改观。澳元贬值将令澳大利亚成为国际游客更为经济的选择。我们认为旅游业将是澳元汇率下跌的最大受益者。教育出口风生水起在过去的一年里，教育出口总值达到180亿澳元，成为澳大利亚仅次于铁矿石和煤炭的第三大出口产业，因此教育产业的重要性不言而喻。到目前为止，中国亦是在澳留学生的最大来源国。

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Being the new kid on the block in terms of margin FX offering, means we have learnt from the mistakes of other brokers and we are able to offer clients the integrity and transparency in the way we conduct our business. Having surveyed what traders want when choosing a Forex Broker, we are able to offer you the following to ensure you have a seamless and profitable trading experience with our powerful MT4 platform: ® Speed ® Spreads ® Security ® Service Speed of Execution No more nasty delays when you execute

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WHAT TRADING PLATFORM WILL FX MATE LEAD THE TRADERS / INVESTORS TO?

MetaTrader 4 is a platform for trading Forex, analyzing financial markets and using Expert Advisors. Mobile trading, Trading Signals and the Market are the integral parts of MetaTrader 4 that enhance your Forex trading experience. 750+ brokers and banks provide services to millions of traders using MetaTrader 4. The platform offers ample opportunities to traders of all skill levels: advanced technical analysis, flexible trading system,

algorithmic trading and Expert Advisors, as well as mobile trading applications. Signals and Market additional services extend MetaTrader 4 frontiers. The Signals service allows you to copy trades of other traders, while the Market provides you with various Expert Advisors and Technical indicators that you can buy.

请介绍一下FX Mate汇友金融产品和服务？

在外汇市场进行交易的投资者，需要同值得信赖的经纪商打交道。FX Mate汇友金融是一个来自澳大利亚的外汇、大宗商品及主要指数保证金交易平台，是澳大利亚著名经纪商Intelligent Financial Markets(AFSL426359)的持牌代表 (001239858) ，受ASIC——澳大利亚证券投资委员会监管。通过汇友金融的MT4软件，专业投资人士可无缝链接全球交易市场。只需在您的 iPhone或安卓手机上下载MT4软件，即可随心随时交易。汇友金融隶属于澳大利亚中联集团。中联集团经过多年在澳发展，已成为金融服务业及房地产业的领军企业。为了实现金融业务多元化，现加入外汇保证金交易业务，与其他服务业务协同发展。

FX Mate 汇友金融有怎样的优势？

FX Mate汇友金融平台的成功搭建,建立在多年以来业内众多经纪商的成功经验和失败教训之上。我们秉持诚信、专业的执业态度，竭力为客户打造业内最透明化的交易体验。为满足客户对保证金交易经纪商的最高期望，汇友金融基于强大的MT4平台，为您提供出色、稳定、流畅的交易体验，令您在交易中更得心应手。我们的产品服务有如下特点—— ® 交易系统快人一步 ® 极低点差领跑行业 ® 资金监管确保安全 ® 私人交易专家顾问

T: + 61 (2) 9332 7889 / 1300 396 283 (Australia) | 4008 907 763 (中国) E: info@fxmate.com.au A: Level 31, Citigroup Centre, 2 Park Street Sydney NSW 2000

FX Mate是Finsa Pty Ltd公司旗下注册的商业名称之一，Finsa Pty Ltd合法持有来自澳大利亚证券与投资委员会颁发的澳大利亚金融服务牌照（422661）。FXMT Pty Ltd (ACN: 606122945) 是Intelligent Financial Markets Pty Ltd(AFSL No. 426359)特别授权企业代表（授权编号为001239858），FXMT Pty Ltd有权为公众提供金融产品建议。外汇交易和衍生品交易具有一定程度的风险，并不适合所有投资者。投资者可能会承受超过本金数量的损失。

Jeffrey has had a long and varied career in the financial markets, with 27 years of experience across various asset classes and in multiple roles. Working with businesses such as M.L.C. Investments, The Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Thomson Reuters, Jeffrey has sold equities, fixed interest, Futures and foreign exchange across the gamut of wholesale and retail clients. While at Thomson Reuters, Jeffrey provided market analysis and trading commentary on foreign exchange 崔杰福 and derivative markets. He has worked in the financial centers JEFFREY of Sydney, Tokyo and Singapore and has a deep and strong TRIGANZA understanding of what investors and traders seek in trading platforms and execution. He has also appeared as an expert 销售总监 Sales Director commentary on Bloomberg, Reuters TV and CNBC. Jeffrey holds an MBA from the Australian Graduate School of Management, has a Diploma in Technical Analysis from the Australian Technical Analysis Association and is RG146 compliant.

交易系统“快人一步” 极速运行低延迟, 令市场尽在您的掌握。我们将努力减少交易失败或“滑价”的发生，更快执行交易，以提高成交率来提升客户满意度。极低点差领跑行业 FX Mate汇友金融采用浮动点差交易系统，第一时间反映市场上的价格变化。汇友金融会在多家报价商中积极为您找到尽可能小的点差，最大程度降低您的交易成本。

崔杰福从事金融行业27年，拥有澳大利亚管理学院MBA学位、及澳大利亚投资技术分析协会及澳大利亚证券和投资委员会授予的执业资格。曾供职于M.L .C. Investments、澳大利亚联邦银行和汤森路透公司，足迹遍及悉尼、东京及新加坡等全球重要金融中心。基于对金融市场的全面涉猎和深入钻研，他洞悉股票、债券、期货及外汇市场交易，了解投资者对于金融产品、交易平台的遴选标准，无论为机构还是个人投资者都能提供专业、准确的投资意见。在汤森路透，他专门为外汇及金融衍生品市场撰写市场评论和交易分析，经常受到彭博社、路透电视台和美国广播电视公司财经频道的邀请，为市场最新动向做专家点评。

资金监管确保安全 FX Mate汇友金融受到ASIC— —澳大利亚证券投资委员会监管，其监管标准被誉为全球最严格的标准之一。汇友金融所有客户的资金均存储在开设于Westpac银行的独立监管账户上，确保安心无忧。

韦松龙

私人交易专家顾问我们的服务宗旨是聆听客户所需，为您提供业内独一无二的尊贵服务。

交易/运营总监 Trading/Operations Director

FX Mate汇友金融的客服经理将竭诚为每一位客户提供优质贴心服务，多语种服务为您及时解决交易问题，提升交易体验。

请问通过FX Mate 汇友金融，保证金交易的客户使用的是怎样的交易平台？

MT4客户端为交易者提供了实时模式的交易功能、技术分析及专业的交易策略。掌上交易、 “复制交易订单”和“策略市场”等特性帮助您提升交易体验，在交易中更胜一筹。

CORY VI

韦松龙拥有20+年外汇交易经验，持澳大利亚证券和投资委员会颁发的RG146执业许可。曾作为外汇交易业务负责人任职澳新银行，还服务过联邦银行、美国运通、北斗国际等全球知名金融机构，涉足多种金融业务并担任高级职位，从中积累了丰富的客户资源和行业经验。在行业内，韦松龙是为数不多有能力运用金融知识与行业经验把握行业动向，为客户提供风险管理建议的专业人士。他致力于在“鱼龙混杂”的外汇交易市场中打造一家真正公正、可靠的交易平台，力求用行动定义保证金交易行业执业标准。

全球有近千万交易者选择使用MT4进行各类保证金交易。该平台为处于不同阶段的投资者提供了关键的技术分析指标、灵活且具有操作性的交易平台、基于算法的交易策略和专业交易建议。更重要的是，通过移动设备您同样可以紧跟市场，享受MT4平台的种种优势。 “复制交易订单”和“策略市场”是使MT4区别于大部分平台提供者的特有属性。 “复制交易订单”允许您可以复制其他交易者的交易订单，同时，您也可以通过“策略市场”购买来自多位专业投资人的投资建议及大量技术分析图表，令您在市场中投资更加自如。

WWW.FXMATE.COM.AU

Cory has 20+ years’ experience in the foreign exchange market starting from a junior FX voice broker to Head of Margin FX for ANZ Bank. During this time, he has held various senior business/client management roles, in different business units that allowed him to have both strong client orientation and profitable business metrics for the organizations he has worked for, including Commonwealth Bank, American Express, and Compass. In short, there are not many advisors like Cory in the current market place who truly has the width and depth of market knowledge to advise on risk management as well as the movement of money around the world. His personal mission is to inform the general public of what is fair and acceptable in a true FX market arena. His positive attitude and caring nature for the clients is the backbone of FX Mate.

李顺愿

LEO LEE

高级客户经理 Senior Client Manager

Leo has 7+ years’ experience in the Financial Services Industry and is RG146 compliant. He brings a wealth of experience in front, middle and back office operations, which equips him with a thorough understanding of business operations, coupled with the ability to communicate effectively with all business units. Leo’s financial market experience encompasses Equities, Foreign Exchange and Commodities trading. His product area expertise and business knowledge include Margin Financing and OTC Derivatives trading, such as Foreign Exchange and Contracts for Difference (CFDs). A true ‘people person’ and with an analytical mind, Leo is a problem solver, including providing support to colleagues and mentoring to junior teammates. He is proficient in multiple languages including, English, Cantonese, Mandarin and Shanghainese.

李顺愿在澳大利亚金融服务行业拥有7+年工作经验，持有来自澳大利亚证券和投资委员会颁发的RG146执业许可。他曾担任过的职位完美贯穿外汇交易的整个流程，其中在股票、外汇和大宗商品交易等特定领域拥有多年的交易经历，特别在保证金交易、场外衍生品（包括外汇、差价合约）交易方面拥有充足的金融知识储备和执业经验。李顺愿精通英语、粤语、普通话及上海话，可为不同背景、不同语言的投资者提供专业、有条理的投资分析和优质服务。

投资者应全面评估自身的财务状况、投资经验、风险承受能力及外汇、衍生品交易的特性，并在必要情况下咨询第三方意见。此页面中的内容不应被看作任何形式的交易建议和推荐。我方的《产品披露声明》和《金融服务指南》可通过网站fxmate.com.au w或致电+61 （2）9332 7889/ 1300 396 283 (澳大利亚）； 4008 907 7763（中国）获取。

COVER STORY

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Education exports have been through large swings in recent years. iron ore and coal. Clearly, this is an important sector. China is also by far the biggest source of international students in Australia. There were around 117,000 Chinese students studying in Australia in 2014, which accounted for 26% of all foreign students. The second largest market for international students is India, which made up 11% of the total in 2014. OECD statistics suggest that, in 2011, Australia was the third largest destination for Chinese students studying abroad, with 12.5% of the total, behind the US (25%) and Japan (13%). The Chinese education market is heavily skewed towards higher education (largely universities), with 64% of Chinese course enrolments in Australia so far in 2015 being in higher education courses. English language courses make up 16% of Chinese enrolments, while just 7% are in vocational education or training. In contrast, 25% of total international student enrolments are in vocational courses. That makes the Chinese market particularly valuable, as higher education courses are typically larger earners than vocational courses. Australia’s education exports have been through some large swings over recent years. Education exports rose rapidly during the early-2000s, with the number of total international student enrolments in Australia increasing 130% between 2002 and 2009, and enrolments from China 220% higher over that time. However, student numbers then fell quite sharply in 2010, following government cutbacks of student visas and also reflecting the effect of the high Australian dollar on competitiveness. At the time, the Australian dollar was above parity against the US dollar, making it comparatively more attractive for students to study in the US rather than Australia. Over the past two years though, student numbers have begun to increase strongly again. International student enrolments returned to the previous peak during the first half of 2015, with 543,000 enrolments in the first six months of the year, almost exactly equal to the number of enrolments recorded in the first half of 2009. Chinese students have been a key driver of this rebound, with the 147,000 enrolments in the first half of 2015 passing 46 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

2014年共有大约11.7万名中国留学生来澳求学，占国际生总数的26%。排在第二位的则是印度留学生，2014年占国际生总数的11%。根据经济合作与发展组织的统计数据，2011 年，澳大利亚是中国留学生的第三大求学目的地（占到所有中国留学生的12.5%），仅次于美国（25%）和日本（13%）。中国留学生多青睐高等教育（主要为大学）；到2015年为止，64%的中国留学生入读澳大利亚的各种高等教育课程，另有16%的中国留学生入读各种英语课程；仅有7%的中国留学生参加职业教育或各种培训。相反，在所有国际生当中，有 25%的国际生入读各种职业教育课程。这种情况体现出中国留学生市场的价值所在，因为与职业教育课程相比，高等教育课程通常能为澳大利亚带来更多的收入。澳大利亚的教育出口也曾大起大落过。2000年代初期，教育出口开始风生水起，在2002年至2009年期间来澳求学的国际生总数增长了130%，而中国留学生总数更是激增了220%。不过，在政府收缩学生签证以及澳元升值的双重影响之下，2010年国际生总数开始急剧下滑。是年澳元兑美元突破 1:1平价，令美国成为远胜于澳大利亚的求学目的地。不过，在过去的两年间，国际生数量出现了强势反弹，并于2015年上半年恢复到之前的最高水平。在2015年前六个月期间，在澳大利亚登记入学的国际生达到543,000名，与2009 年上半年期间所达到的国际生入学人数旗鼓相当。中国留学生是这轮反弹的关键推动群体；2015年上半年共有147,000名中国留学生登记入学，超过了2010年上半年所达到的最高的145,000人。过去数年间教育出口的复苏主要得益于新的签证安排—— 放宽了对许多潜在学子的要求，令国际生在完成学业之后更容易留在澳大利亚工作。但是，签证政策仅仅是学子们决定去哪求学所考虑的因素之一。近期的一项研究显示：对于中国留学生而言，签证要求仅是其考虑因素之一，安全、求学成本以及大学声誉等其它因素或许更为重要。

商道

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COVER STORY

the previous peak of 145,000, set during H1 2010. The resurgence of education exports over the past couple of years can largely be put down to new visa arrangements, which have reduced requirements for many prospective students and made it easier for international students to stay and work in Australia after the completion of their studies. However, visa policy settings are only one factor in students’ decisions about where to study. Recent research suggests that for Chinese students, while visa requirements are a factor, other considerations such as safety, cost and university reputations are perhaps more important. A key factor in the cost of an Australian education is the exchange rate. In this regard, Australia has become a great deal more competitive over the past couple of years, given that the Australian dollar has depreciated 40% against the Renminbi since 2011. With Australia already viewed as a safe environment, the obvious priority from a policy perspective should therefore be improving the reputation of Australia’s education providers. This could be done through investment in facilities or improving the quality of teaching and research.

HIGH-QUALITY FOOD IN DEMAND

封面故事

China is at the level of development where per person demand for ‘finer foods’ typically accelerates. 决定澳大利亚教育成本的一项关键因素在于汇率。在这方面，自2011年起澳元兑人民币的汇率已经贬值了40%，令澳大利亚的竞争力骤然提升。由于澳大利亚被公认为安全国度，因此澳大利亚在政策方面的优先考虑应当是提高澳大利亚教育机构的声誉。这一点可以通过投资教育设施或改善教学研究质量来达成。

As China’s middle class incomes rise, demand for highquality food products is expected to pick up. In particular, historical patterns suggest that as countries develop, demand increases for the ‘finer foods’, such as meat, dairy, sugar and edible oils. China is at the level of 优质食品供不应求 development where per person demand for these 随着中国中产阶级收入的增长，其对优质食品的需求亦将 products typically accelerates. 水涨船高。历史经验告诉我们：随着国家的发展，国民对 As a large agricultural producer, Australia is well placed to “更好食品”（比如肉类、乳品、食糖和食用油）的需求亦会 benefit from this increased demand. Rural exports, at 增加。中国当前正好处于这个发展阶段——即国民对这些产 around A$43bn a year, already make up 13% of Australia’s 品的人均需求正在快速上升。 total export earnings, a similar proportion to coal. Over the 作为一个较大的农业生产国，澳大利亚将从这种上升的需 year to June 2015, rural exports to China totalled A$9.0bn, 求中受益匪浅。农业出口（出口总值约达每年430亿澳元）已 down a little from A$9.7bn in the prior 12 months as a result 占澳大利亚出口总收入的13%，与煤炭不相上下。在截至 of lower grain and cotton exports. 2015年6月的过去一年中，澳大利亚对中国的农业出口总值达 Given the expected growth in demand from Asia and 到90亿澳元，与前年的97亿澳元相比略有下滑（主要缘于粮 China, in particular, this should be an area of strong growth 食和棉花出口方面的缩减）。 in exports over the coming years. Agricultural exports are 考虑到亚洲市场需求的增长（尤其是中国市场），农业有 expected to be a key beneficiary of the China free trade 望成为未来数年内澳大利亚出口领域的增长亮点。农业出口 agreement, as well as other recent agreements with Japan 更有望成为《中澳自由贸易协定》以及澳大利亚近年来与日 and Korea. 本和韩国所签的其它协议的最大受益方。 The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource 澳大利亚农业和资源经济科学局预测：2009年至2050年 Economics and Sciences projects that Chinese demand for 期间，中国对农产品的需求将会翻番，尤其是对牛肉（扣除 agricultural food products will double between 2009 and 物价因素将增长236%）、食糖（增长330%）、乳品（增长 2050, with particular growth in demand for beef (up 236% 74%）以及羊肉（增长72%）的需求。大部分的增长将在 in real terms), sugar (up 330%), dairy (up 74%), and sheep 2030年之前实现，此后人口增长将会放缓。 and goat meat (up 72%). Much of the increase is expected to 这种需求的上升反映出越来越多的中国人如今已有钱消费 occur before 2030, after which population growth is 高蛋白食品。我们从日本和韩国的经济发展过程中亦见证了 expected to slow. 类似的模式。中国对牛肉的需求已经持续增长了相当一段时 The lift in demand is expected to reflect that a larger 间，但如果中国沿循日本和韩国的步伐，那么来自中国的需 group of Chinese people can now afford to consume protein. 求必将有更大的发展。 48 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

商道

COVER STORY

封面故事

Japan and Korea saw similar patterns as their economies developed. Chinese demand for beef has already been rising for some time, but if China follows the patterns of Japan and Korea then the big ramp up in Chinese demand may be yet to come.

220%

BUSINESSES TO PLAY A ROLE

Policymakers can help to improve the operating environment for local and foreign firms in Australia, but in the end, the onus is on businesses to take best advantage of the economic opportunities that exist. Local firms should remain focussed on streamlining their processes and innovating in order to improve their productivity and competitiveness. Australian firms should continue to be outward-looking in their approach, given the domestic market of only 23m people is far outweighed by a potential market of over 3bn people in Asia, led by China. Foreign firms should continue to see Australia’s economy as a profitable place to invest. Policymakers can help to make Australia more attractive to foreign investment. Australia’s recent economic success and our view that growth will continue already make it an attractive proposition. Australia remains a useful platform for Western investors to increase their exposure to the Asian growth story, albeit indirectly. Foreign investment from Asia is also growing strongly, albeit off a low base. As trade ties grow and Asian financial markets develop, it seems likely that direct financial links between Australia and Asia will also increase. As this report suggests, we see significant opportunities for growth in Australia as it continues to grow its ties to Asia and particularly to China.

The number of student enrolments from China increased 220% between 2002 and 2009. 在2002年至2009年期间来澳求学的中国留学生总数激增了220%。

企业应发挥更大作用澳政策制定者可以帮助改善澳大利亚本土和外资企业的经营环境，但归根结底，企业自身应充分把握现有的各项经济机遇。本土企业应继续专注于简化流程并开展创新，从而提高自身的生产力和竞争力。澳大利亚企业应当继续放眼海外，因为仅有2300万人口的本土市场的潜力远远不及由中国引领的、拥有30亿消费者的亚洲市场。外资企业应继续将澳大利亚视为一个有利可图的投资目的地。政策部门可以帮助增强澳大利亚对于外国投资者的吸引力。澳大利亚近年的经济成就及我们对澳增长仍将持续的看法已令澳大利亚成为一个引人瞩目的国家。澳大利亚依然是西方投资者间接参与并受益于亚洲增长的一个绝佳平台。来自亚洲的外国投资亦也在强劲增长——虽然此种增长的起点也比较低。随着贸易联系的不断加强以及亚洲金融市场的突飞猛进，澳大利亚与亚洲之间的直接金融联系极可能得到进一步增强。

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By Gordon Orr, Director emeritus and senior external adviser - McKinsey 作者：戈登·奥尔，麦肯锡荣誉董事兼高级对外顾问

2016年中国展望

CHINA - THE YEAR AHEAD

More diverse investment products, a smaller but more competitive manufacturing sector, a surge in agricultural imports and more movie blockbusters are just some of McKinsey director emeritus Gordon Orr’s predictions for what might happen in China in 2016. 更多元化的投资产品，制造业规模有所下降却更具竞争力，农产品进口风生水起，更多的卖座电影大片……这些是麦肯锡荣誉董事Gordon Orr对2016年的中国所做的几项预测。

n debates about whether growth is a percentage point up or down, we too often lose sight of the absolute scale of China’s economy. No matter what rate the country grows at in 2016, its share of the global economy, and of many specific sectors, will be larger than ever. My snapshot of China in 2016? An increasingly diverse, volatile, $11 trillion economy whose performance is becoming more and more difficult to describe as one dimensional. The reality is that China’s economy is today made up of multiple subeconomies, each more than a trillion dollars in size. Some are booming, some declining. Some are globally competitive, others fit for the scrap heap. How you feel about China depends more than ever on the parts of the economy where you compete. In 2015, selling kit to movie theatres has been great business, selling kit to steel mills less so. In your China, are you dealing with a tiger or a tortoise? Your performance in 2016 will depend on knowing the answer to this question and shaping your plans accordingly. Many well-established secular trends in China will continue in 2016. The service 50 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

economy’s expansion is perhaps most prominent among them. In this piece, as usual, I won’t spend much time on the most familiar things. Instead, I will highlight what I believe will become the more important and more visible trends in 2016, either because they are now accelerating to scale or a discontinuity may become a tipping point. I hope you find my ideas valuable.

THE 13TH FIVE-YEAR PLAN —FEW SURPRISES

Much of China’s 13th five-year plan will seem pretty familiar, as it has been flagged in advance at the Fifth Plenum and elsewhere. Perhaps the only challenge will be to interpret the plan’s intent clearly through the new “party speak” now coming to dominate government pronouncements. The GDP growth target will still be 6%–plus, which will be softened a bit but not eliminated by parallel quality-of-life goals: the environment, health, income, and the like. Achieving the growth target will remain the core objective of fiscal and monetary policies, so expect lower interest rates and pressure on the exchange rate versus the US 商道

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间对中国经济增率会上升还是下滑一个百分点而争长论短之时，我们往往忽视考虑中国经济的绝对规模。无论中国2016年的经济增速如何，其在全球经济及诸多行业之中所占的比重均将大于以往。关于2016年，我对中国有何见解？这个11万亿美元的经济体正日益多元化且更加波动，其表现也越来越难从单一角度进行阐述。实际情况是，今日的中国经济由众多子经济体构成，每个子经济体个体总量都超过了1万亿美元。其中一些子经济体如日中天，一些则萎靡不振；一些子经济体的竞争力全球领先，另一些已是颓风难挽。您对中国经济的感受，将越来越取决于您参与竞争的行业。2015年，给电影院供货是赚钱买卖，给钢铁厂供货可能落个灰头土脸。在中国，你是在和一头老虎还是一只乌龟打交道？你在2016年的表现将取决于你是否知道这个问题的答案，并据此来制订你的计划。 2016年，许多既有的长期趋势将在中国继续，而服务经济的扩张或许是这当中的最大亮点。在本文中，我会如常对最为人熟知的趋势一笔带过。鉴于某些趋势正加速成形，而另一些处于难以为继的拐点，我将着重讨论那些我认为在 2016年将更为重要及更显著的趋势。（请参见侧栏的“洞悉中国：Gordon关于2016年的预测”查看内容摘要）。希望我的想法对您所帮助。

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dollar in 2016. Financial reforms aimed at moving more of the economy toward a market-based allocation of capital will continue. Meanwhile, there will be more progress on interest-rate deregulation, on the IPO process (registration rather than approval), on permitting new entrants (especially from the tech sector and from abroad) into financial services, and on reimplementing laws suspended in the summer of 2015. Green initiatives, reinforced by December 2015 commitments made in Paris and the “red alert” in Beijing that same month, will take centre stage. The central government will make such big and visible commitments to its citizens that local authorities will have to mount a serious effort to deliver. There will be tougher emissions standards and more spending to support the development of nonfossil fuels. Green finance will be available. Both private-sector and state-owned companies will rebrand their ongoing initiatives as green. China will explicitly build new export engines from its emerging global leadership in green products; for example, expect to see lots of Chinese-made air-filtration

products in Delhi and the rest of India in 2016. Beyond green initiatives, going global will remain a key theme, as detailed in the One Belt, One Road program.

THE MATURING OF INVESTING: MORE OPTIONS FOR CHINESE INVESTORS AND FOREIGN INVESTMENT MANAGERS

Chinese investors today remain dependent on bank deposits and property. Yet after the volatility of the property and stock markets in 2015, investors want to diversify into more stable vehicles. The number of wealth managers seeking to address this need has increased massively. Often, their main challenge is not finding clients but rather credible products to sell. The main challenge for investors is to find advisers they can trust; most simply push the products that give them the largest commission. Companies are responding to these developments. Larger wealth managers are moving online to deal directly with investors. Online lending sites are becoming broader wealth managers and acquiring mutual-fund distribution licenses. 商道

十三五计划 “十三五”计划中的大部分内容并不陌生，我们都已在五中全会以及其它会议上听过。或许其中唯一的挑战是如何从各类政府公告中频繁使用的“官方新语言”来明晰了解新计划的目的。 GDP增长目标依被设定在6%以上，但生活质量（环境、健康、收入等等）方面的平行目标可能会对经济增速产生些许影响。保增长仍是财政和货币政策的核心目标。因此，可以预见，2016年利率将继续下调，人民币兑美元汇率亦将承压。金融改革将持续推进，以进一步推动市场化资本配置。同时，改革在多个领域将取得进展：利率市场化；上市流程（变审批制为注册制）；放宽金融服务准入（尤其针对高科技企业与外国投资者）；重新实施2015年夏暂停的法规。 2015年12月，中国在巴黎气候大会上做出的承诺，以及北京遭遇的雾霾红色警报让绿色举措成为了万众瞩目的焦点。中央政府对市民做出的重大环保承诺让地方政府除了全力推进之外别无选择。政府将实施更为严格的排放标准，增加非化石燃料的开发投资，并提供绿色融资。私企和国企竞相在长期举措上贴上“绿色”标签。全球领先的中国环保产品将被着意打造成新的出口引擎。比如，中国制造的空气净化器在2016年将大量现身德里和印度各地。 H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 51

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Government must persuade the people it is committed to giving them the skills they need. Opportunities for foreign fund managers and brokers are growing as a result of regulatory changes, with international companies recently receiving approval to open 100%–owned investment-management operations and a foreign-controlled brokerage operation. The historic distribution problem that has held back many funds is being solved as a result of both the emergence of better wealth managers and the rapid acceptance of online distribution, initially thanks to Alibaba’s and Tencent’s push into money-market funds. If your company does go after this opportunity, don’t forget the volatile mindset of Chinese investors: if a product makes a loss, they still expect to be bailed out. Taking personal responsibility for investment decisions isn’t well accepted. Foreign fund managers must be prepared to deal with anger online and in person when a product they sell doesn’t live up to expectations. While I hope that in 2016 the government will allow more investments to fail and will stop organising bailouts, progress will be incremental.

MANUFACTURING IN CHINA IS CHANGING, NOT DISAPPEARING

The closely watched manufacturing purchasing manager’s index (PMI) remains below 50, which indicates deterioration, leading to talk that the country may be nearing the end of its time as a manufacturer for the world. Let’s be clear: manufacturing is not about to become 52 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

irrelevant in China. However, the country is evolving toward extremes of performance: the truly awful and the genuinely competitive. Many companies—indeed entire sectors— may be nearing a PMI permanently below 50, but this doesn’t mean that the emergence of internationally capable Chinese manufacturers will do anything other than accelerate. I wrote two years ago about the lack of marketing skills in many Chinese companies and their reluctance to hire functional expertise outside their existing networks. That has changed incredibly quickly. Chinese CEOs incessantly ask me for names of functional experts, especially in data, marketing, and specific international markets. It’s great to see the follow-through and the hiring. In 2016, we will realise that in many parts of the economy, a smaller Chinese manufacturing sector is actually a stronger global competitor than ever before. One indicator will be more international acquisitions by Chinese manufacturers. A second will be more multinationals blaming their lower growth not just on a slowing Chinese economy but also, specifically, on local competitors that are moving upmarket to gain share inside and outside China. Some manufacturing sectors in China do have massive overcapacity and many mediocre producers. But the country also has successful innovators in many industries, some highlighted in the recent MGI report The 商道

除了绿色举措之外，“走出去”依然是重要议题，并充分体现在“一带一路”倡议之中。投资市场日渐成熟：中国投资者和外国投资经理将拥有更多选择目前，银行存款和房地产目前仍然是中国投资者的投资首选。然而，经历2015年过山车般的房市和股市，投资者自然而然想寻找更为稳健的投资工具。这种需求催生了大量的理财经理。通常而言，他们的挑战不是招揽客户，而是提供可靠的产品。另一方面，投资者很难找到可以信任的理财顾问，因为绝大多数只是向他们推荐佣金最高的产品。相关企业正积极响应这些趋势。大型理财公司正大力推动网上直营，而各种网上借贷平台也摇身一变成为理财公司并取得了共同基金销售牌照。监管环境的变化为海外基金经理和经纪人创造了更多机遇，已有跨国公司获批成立全资投资管理公司和外资控股的经纪公司。以往众多基金所面临的销售问题，也因优质理财经理的出现以及网上销售的迅速风靡而迎刃而解。在这方面，阿里巴巴和腾讯相继推出的货币基金功不可没。但在把握机遇的同时，请时刻谨记中国投资者的多变心态：如果产品亏了钱，他们会寄望于政府救市；他们还不习惯对自己的投资决定负责；如果产品没有实现预期收益，那么海外基金经理们要准备好应对投资者在网络上或当面的怒斥。尽管我个人希望2016年政府允许更多投资失败，不要屡屡出手救市，但这只会是一个渐进的过程。

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Consumer spending has been responsible for well over 50 percent of GDP so far this year. 2015年个人消费对 GDP的贡献率已远超50%。

China effect on global innovation. By aggressively adopting what we might consider Western concepts—lean and modular design, scaled learning, agile manufacturing, and intelligent automation—many companies are combining low costs with aggressive innovation. Their skills are spreading widely across China’s manufacturers. Multinationals in China are facing up to this double challenge of lower growth and better local competition. A few are quietly exiting; I have met excited private-equity investors negotiating to buy their assets. More are adjusting their aspirations from “invest for the future” to “make money today” and lowering their cost structures to match. Some will move aggressively on the front foot. In 2016, more multinationals will attempt to purchase Chinese competitors—if you can’t beat them, buy them.

AGRICULTURAL IMPORTS ARE RISING AND RISING

In 2016, China’s growing food needs will drive agricultural imports to record highs in both volume and value. A wider range of countries than ever before will find agricultural-export opportunities there. Russia is one example. Its reorientation toward China, following the imposition of Western sanctions, has taken time to play out in agriculture—border inspection points and the like had to be scaled up. (This reorientation happened much more quickly with oil; China reduced its dependence on the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to around 50%, from more than 65%, largely by increasing imports from Russia.) Nonetheless, Chinese imports of grain and oilseed from Russia reached 500,000 tons in the first nine months

of 2015, compared with just 100,000 for all of 2014. Even significant volumes of corn from Ukraine are pragmatically finding their way across Russia and into China. The full impact of the free-trade agreement with Australia won’t be seen until 2016. I expect rapid growth, particularly in meat. The Australian government’s recent decision to turn down an investment on national-security grounds will only temporarily deter Chinese investors from putting more money into Australian agriculture. Several had previously made approved investments, and others are sounding out international partners to invest jointly in new Australian projects. Argentina will compete with Australia to provide beef to China and with Ethiopia to provide alfalfa at scale to feed China’s dairy herds. After a pause in 2015, US farmers should increase their exports to China not just in soybeans (historically more than 40% of US agricultural exports to the country by value) but also in cereals, intermediate goods, and, especially, branded processed foods. These might be sold directly to middle-class consumers through the growing online market for groceries. Food safety will remain a theme that benefits US and other international producers of branded foods.

中国制造业正在升级，而非消失各方密切关注的中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）仍然低于50（50以下表示恶化），世界工厂地位岌岌可危的说法甚嚣尘上。首先我们必须明确一点：中国制造业不会就此式微，但两极分化会逾加严重：有的苟延残喘，有的却傲视群雄。许多企业——甚至是整个行业——的PMI指数可能将永远低于50，但世界一流的中国制造企业将加速涌现。我在两年前提到许多中国公司缺乏市场营销技能，不愿意跳出现有网络去招聘职能专家，但这种情况已是今非昔比。如今，常有中国企业的老总让我推荐职能专家（尤其是在数据、营销和特定国际市场方面的专家）。看到他们从善如流、招才纳贤，我也不免深感欣慰。在2016年，我们将会意识到，收缩之后的中国制造业在全球竞争力方面反而更胜以往。这主要表现在中国制造商将开展更多的国际并购，此外亦表现在更多的跨国企业不仅将增长放缓归咎于中国经济疲软，还直指那些不断进军高端市场并抢占国内外市场份额的中国本土对手。诚然，中国的某些制造业部门产能严重过剩，许多企业缺乏竞争力，但许多行业也不乏成功的创新企业；这在麦肯锡全球研究院的最新报告《全球创新的中国效应》中有所提及。通过积极采用被我们视为源自西方的各种理念——精益和模块化设计、规模化学习、敏捷制造和智能自动化——许多中国企业正在将低 MOVIES IN CHINA: $$$ 成本与积极创新进行融合。他们的技术在中国 A Chinese movie will gross $500 million 本土制造企业当中广为传播。 domestically in 2016. As a benchmark, the 跨国企业在华业务正面临增长放缓和本土 highest-grossing movie of all time on US 竞争加剧的双重挑战。少数跨国企业正在黯然 domestic screens is Avatar, at $760 million. 退出；我也遇到过多个私募投资者正兴致勃勃 This year’s leading domestic productions in 地与他们洽谈资产购买事宜。而更多的跨国企 China were Monster Hunt (which has grossed 业正将战略重心从“投资未来”转向“落袋为 $380 million as of September) and Lost in Hong 安”，并在相应地降低成本结构。另有少数跨 Kong (more than $200 million). The leading 国企业将直面挑战，迎头痛击。2016年将有更 international movie, Furious 7, grossed almost 多的跨国企业收购中国竞争对手——打不赢就 $400 million in China. The country’s box office 买下来。 has been set to grow by almost 50% in 2015, and new screen additions alone should deliver 农产品进口风生水起 20%–plus growth in 2016. More than half of the 2016年，中国不断膨胀的食品需求将使农业 top-ten movies for 2015 (as of late November) 进口量和进口额双双创下新高，对华农产品出 are domestic productions, and 60% of the box 口国家的数量也将达到历史新高。 office comes from Chinese movies. The 以俄罗斯为例。在遭受西方制裁之后，俄罗 country’s producers and directors have clearly 斯通过扩建边检站以及相关基础设施，最终花 tapped into what excites local moviegoers (and 了一些时间成功地将农业出口重心转向了中国 what censors permit). （石油出口方面的进展则要快得多；中国通过 A risk to this rosy scenario comes from 扩大对俄进口份额，将欧佩克的石油进口占比 online movies, which are growing even more 从65%以上调底至50%左右）。仅在2015年前 quickly. Legend of Miyue, an 81-episode 9个月期间，中国从俄罗斯进口的粮食和油籽 historical drama, was recently launched, 数量就从2014年全年的10万吨激增至50万吨。商道

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simultaneously, on broadcast and online channels through Tencent Video and LeTV. It attracted 700 million hits online in just 24 hours. No wonder Alibaba has invested more than $4.8 billion in a leading video platform. Consumers seem to want both the cinema and the mobile-device experience. I believe this trend will continue, and we will see new milestones for the big screen in 2016.

CHINA CONTINUES TO GO GLOBAL, WITH THE UNITED KINGDOM AS A NEW FOCAL POINT China’s outbound investment will accelerate in 2016, with One Belt, One Road–related initiatives driving much of it. A growing share of the acquisitions will come from privatesector companies that aspire to global leadership. These companies are increasingly sophisticated buyers, conducting quality due diligence, working with traditional advisers, and focusing on countries where they think that warm political relations will make it easier to do deals. As always, don’t over focus on short-term noise about Chinese GDP growth. Try to identify the medium-term direction of the parts of the economy relevant to your business. Enjoy China in 2016! This is an edited version of the full article which can be found at www.mckinsey.com 54 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

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连乌克兰的玉米都借道俄罗斯大量销往中国。中澳自贸协定的效果要到2016年才能全面显现。我预计肉类进口将迎来快速增长。澳大利亚政府近期出于国家安全考虑拒绝了一项来自中国的投资，但此举并不能浇灭中国投资者对澳大利亚农业的投资热情。数家中国企业此前已获批并成功在澳投资，另有企业正在考虑与国际伙伴合作投资澳大利亚的新项目。而阿根廷不仅会在牛肉出口上与澳大利亚展开角逐，还将在饲料苜蓿出口方面与埃塞俄比亚一较高下。在2015年的短暂中断之后，美国的农场主们将会加大对华的大豆出口（占美国对华农产品历史出口额的四成以上），以及其他谷物、中间产品尤其是品牌加工食品的出口。这些商品均将通过日益壮大的在线超市直接卖给中产消费者。食品安全仍将成为美国和其他国际大牌的有力卖点。

通过审批）。影响票房的一大风险来自于增长更快的网络视频。81集历史剧《芈月传》近期在卫视、腾讯视频以及乐视网上同步开播。短短24小时，网上点击量就达到了7亿。难怪阿里巴巴斥资 48亿美元投资某个知名视频网站。消费者似乎对电影院和移动设备都难以割舍。我相信这种趋势还将延续，2016年我们将见证大银幕的全新里程碑。中国继续推进“走出去”战略，英国将成为新宠 2016年中国的对外投资将提速，“一带一路”相关举措将成为关键推手。越来越多的并购案将来自于那些意欲取得全球领导地位的私营企业。这些经验日益丰富的公司会开展充分的尽职调查，与传统的咨询公司合作，并专注于那些与中国政治关系良好并且更好打交道的国家。最后，我仍要老生常谈，不要太过纠结于中国GDP增速的短期表现。试着把握贵司与业务所处经济领域相关的中期发展趋势吧。愿你在 2016年的中国，大展宏图！

中国电影票房飘红 2016年将有一部国产电影的国内票房超过5 亿美元。美国迄今为止国内票房最高的电影是《阿凡达》，共计7.6亿美元。2015年国产电影中票房领先的有《捉妖记》（截止9月，总票房达3.8亿美元）和《港囧》（2亿多美元）。国际大片中的票房冠军当属《速度与激情7》，在中国共斩获4亿美元。2015年中国电影的票房收入增长近50%已无悬念，而2016年新增的银幕将会带来逾20%的增长。2015年排名前10 （截至11月底）的电影当中一半以上是国产片，总票房中六成来自国产电影。中国制片人和导这是一份编辑后的文章。完整的内容请参见演很显然已经抓住了本土影迷的兴奋点（还能 www.mckinsey.com。商道

INFRASTRUCTURE

基础建设

By Andrew Lumsden, Partner. Lizzie Knight, Partner. Stephanie Daveson , Partner. Corrs Chambers Westgarth Lawyers 作者：安德鲁·拉姆斯登，莉兹·奈特，斯蒂芬妮·达芬森，阔思律师事务所合伙人。

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INFRASTRUCTURE

基础建设

千载难逢的良机

ONE BIG OPPORTUNITY

China’s One Belt One Road initiative is not just a bold endeavour in taking China’s infrastructure expertise to the rest of the world, it is also an opportunity for Australian companies to use their expertise to participate in the Asian infrastructure boom. 中国的“一带一路”倡议不仅仅是中国基础设施专业技术走向世界的大胆举措，也是澳大利亚企业运用其专业知识参与亚洲基础设施建设蓬勃发展的良机。

he renowned scholar Joseph Needham in his monumental work Science and Civilisation in China, travelled the silk road to better understand the flow of technology (particularly papermaking, movable-type printing, gunpowder and the compass) from China to Europe and India. These technologies were instrumental in liberating Europe from the dark ages. What then can the West and China expect from China’s One Belt One Road initiative? This bold endeavour is much more than a thought bubble. It is an economic reality embracing 60 economies amounting to 60% of

This bold endeavour is much more than a thought bubble.

the world’s population and 46% of global GDP 名显赫的李约瑟博士在其巨著《中国的 supported by access to China’s accumulated 科学与文明》（即《中国科学技术史》） multi-trillions in foreign reserves and a clear 中描述了他游历丝绸之路的科技见闻，从而令 and consistent political will. 世人对中国古代科技精华(尤其是造纸术、活 Will Australia participate in this endeavour 字印刷术、火药和指南针）如何传播到欧洲和 or allow the Asian infrastructure boom to pass 印度有了进一步的了解。 us by? 这些科学技术助益中世纪的欧洲从那个黑暗 In 2013 President Xi Jinping announced the 时代解放出来。那么现在，西方和中国能从中 launch of the New 21st Century Maritime Silk 国的“一带一路”倡议中有何获益呢？ Road just one month after announcing the New “一带一路”的大胆举措绝非乌托邦式的虚幻 Silk Road Economic Belt. The two quickly 泡沫。它是涉及60个经济体、涵盖60%世界人 morphed into a consolidated strategy – the One 口和46%全球GDP的经济现实，还受到中国 Belt One Road. 几万亿美元的外汇总储备以及明确一致的强大 This grand vision, like most successful 政治意愿的支持。 Chinese policies, has one eye on the past (a 澳大利亚是否参与这一大胆举措，或者， strong historic link to the China of the Yuan 是否允许与亚洲基础设施的蓬勃发展擦肩 and Ming dynasties) and one eye on the future 而过呢？ (avoiding the so-called Thucydides trap). 2013年，中国主席习近平首次提出“丝绸 A vision based upon a China that is more 之路经济带”的战略构想；仅1个月之后， open to the outside. As President Xi says, “It is “21世纪海上丝绸之路”倡议问世。二者迅速合 impossible for China to develop with its doors 并形成了“一带一路”综合战略。 closed.” It’s a policy that is non这一宏大构想与大多数成功的中国方针一 confrontational, based on mutual respect and 样，一方面着眼于过去（注重与元、明时期中 that presents a common ground on issues of 国的强大历史联系），一方面着眼于未来 common interest. （避免所谓的“修昔底德陷阱”（Thucydides trap））。 INFRASTRUCTURE IS THE FOCUS 这一构想以更加开放的中国为基础。正如习 After more than 20 years of building roads, 主席所言，“关起门来搞建设不可能成功。” railways and airports, China now has a 这是一项基于相互尊重的非对抗性政策，体现 world-class infrastructure industry. 了有关各方共同利益问题的共同立场。

声

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H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 57

INFRASTRUCTURE

基础建设

ONE BELT, ONE ROAD

Urumql

TURKEY

Beijing

IRAQ

CHINA

IRAN

XI’an

基础设施领域从业人员约占中国劳动年龄人口的百分之三。

Basra

BANGLADESH

Khambhat

OMAN

INDIA

Quanzhou Guangzhou

Bay of Bengal

Arabian sea Kollam

Andaman sea

South China sea

SRILANKA Banda Aceh Idian Ocean

INDONESIA

Belttung

ECONOMIC BELT MARITIME ROAD

Infrastructure employs roughly 3% of China’s working age population. As China approaches a point where it can no longer deploy resources on domestic infrastructure investment, it is looking to reorient this infrastructure industry to foreign markets. That is why infrastructure, in all its forms, is a clear priority of One Belt One Road. This infrastructure focus has been given a powerful impetus through the Chinese government’s establishment of the $40 billion Silk Road Fund, the $100 billion Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and the $100 billion New Development Bank. The One Belt One Road policy in its aim to promote connectivity clearly complements China’s going out strategy and supports the export of Chinese infrastructure on a grand scale. China’s commitment to building infrastructure in countries covered by the One Belt One Road initiative was revealed in data 58 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

Infrastructure employs roughly 3% of China's working age population.

released by Grison’s Peak which shows the majority of the 67 overseas loan commitments made by China’s largest lenders – the China Development Bank and China Exim Bank – were for infrastructure projects in areas along the One Belt One Road. These loans ( just like development assistance programmes led by the West and Japan in the 1980s) have been tied to the involvement of Chinese companies either as suppliers of machinery and raw materials or in constructing and operating projects. Indeed, on 16 July, China’s state news agency launched an information service which will offer credit information and risk assessments on countries in the One Belt One Road as well as databases, a think tank and consulting services. The complexity and sheer scale of the second pillar of the One Belt One Road policy – facilities connectivity – cannot be understated. Projects to remove transport bottlenecks, 商道

基础设施建设：重中之重 20多年的公路、铁路、机场建设之后，中国已经具备了世界一流的基础工业。基础设施领域从业人员约占中国劳动年龄人口的百分之三。随着利用资源推动本土基础设施投资的渐趋临界极限，中国的基础设施工业投资开始转向国外市场。这也正是各种形式的基础设施项目成为“一带一路”明确优先事项的重要原因。中国政府成立“丝绸之路基金”出资的400 亿美元、亚洲基础设施投资银行的1000亿美元、新开发银行的1000亿美元将大大推动基础设施领域的重点发展。 “一带一路”方针的目的在于促进互联互通，对中国“走出去”战略形成补充并大规模支持中国基础设施出口。位于伦敦的商业银行Grison’s Peak一项研究显示，中国力图在“一带一路”倡议所涵盖的国家开展基础设施建设，并表示中国最大的两家贷款机构——国家开发银行和中国进出口银行——承诺的67笔对外贷款，大多数流向“ 一带一路”沿线区域的基础设施项目。正如上世纪八十年代西方大国和日本实施的开发援助项目一样，“一带一路”计划下的政策性银行贷款往往都与中国企业的参与捆绑在一起：中国企业或作为机器设备和原材料的供应方，或承担项目的建设和运营。中国官方通讯社在7月16日推出了一项信息服务：提供有关“一带一路”区域国家的信用信息和风险评估以及资料库、智囊团和咨询服务。 “一带一路”第二大支柱——设施联通——的复杂性和规模不容忽视。消除运输瓶颈、加强港口基础设施建设、油气管道建设、公路建设、长途干线和网络建设等项目，除铁矿石和煤炭之外，还需要项目规划专业知识以及—— 最为重要的——合适的人才。

INFRASTRUCTURE

基础建设

China clearly understands the benefits Australia's services sector has to offer. promote port infrastructure construction, gas and oil pipeline construction, road construction, trunk line and network construction will require, in addition to iron ore and coal, project planning expertise and most importantly the right talent.

OPPORTUNITY FOR AUSTRALIA

The commodities boom presented Australian construction companies with an opportunity to quickly climb the construction curve. The spike in energy and resource mega projects focused the world’s best construction professionals and contractors on Australia resulting in increased local project capability and capacity. Complex construction projects enabled Australian companies to gain confidence in project delivery and develop world best practices in project planning and financial forecasting, talent and risk management. With the decline in the commodities cycle, this expertise can now be redeployed in the One Belt One Road. We have already witnessed the desire for Australian construction companies with the acquisition by China Construction and Communication of John Holland. As President of China Construction and Communication International, Mr Lu Jianzhong said, “From our perspective, ownership of John Holland is the optimal way for CCCC to participate in this dynamic market as part of our aim to be a global transportation infrastructure business. It will be an important strategic addition to CCCC and we see JHG as a strong independent competitor in the Australian market.”

澳大利亚的机遇 China clearly understands the benefits 商品流通的一度繁荣为澳大利亚基建企业提 that the Australian services sector has to 供了一展身手的大好机会。各种能源与资源大 offer China under ChAFTA. As we previously 型项目风起云涌，令全球最佳的专业建设人才 discussed China’s commitments to Australian 和建设企业云集澳大利亚，从而促成了澳洲本 companies under ChAFTA cover a wide 土项目能力与容量的提升。 range of service sectors including legal, 复杂项目的建设经验使澳大利亚企业对于项 financial, telecommunications, education, 目的交付完成倍感信心，并且，在项目规划和 medical services, and construction and 财务预测、人才和风险管理等方面形成世界领 engineering services. 先的最佳做法。 Acquisition is not the only option for 随着商品流通周期的下降，这些专业知识和 China in securing the skills of Australian 技术可以在“一带一路”区域再获发展。中国 construction firms. The One Belt One Road 交通建设股份有限公司（中国交建）收购澳基 Initiative, together with ChAFTA presents, 建企业约翰·荷兰（John Holland）-- 澳大利 opportunities for Australian companies to joint 亚基建公司参与建设发展的愿景可见一斑。 venture with Chinese companies in providing 中交国际总裁陆建忠先生说：“在我们看 construction services. 来，收购约翰·荷兰集团是中国交建参与这一 At its heart the One Belt One Road Initiative is about connectedness both physically through 动态市场的理想方式，这是我们全球交通基础设施业务目标的一部分。它将是中国交建战略 infrastructure and politically through 的重要补充。我们将约翰·荷兰集团视为公司 neighbourhood diplomacy. Securing and 在澳大利亚市场强大的独立对手。” maintaining a social licence in the delivery of 中国充分了解《中澳自由贸易协定》框架下澳 infrastructure projects throughout the One Belt 大利亚服务产业能为其带来的利益。如前所述， One Road will be fundamental to its success. 中国在《自由贸易协定》中对澳大利亚企业作出 One dividend of the mining boom not 的承诺涵盖服务业各领域，包括法律、金融、通 frittered away is the positive reputation of 讯、教育、医疗服务和建设工程服务等。 Australian companies in the sector for 收购并不是中国企业获得澳洲基建公司先进 sensitivity to local conditions, fair dealing and 技术的唯一选择。通过“一带一路”倡议以及 good corporate responsibility. 《中澳自由贸易协定》，澳大利亚企业亦可与 The delivery of large and small scale energy 中国企业合资提供建设服务。 and resource projects has equipped Australian “一带一路”倡议的核心是通过基础设施建设 construction companies with a myriad of 与邻国外交实现实体与政治领域的互联互通。 sophisticated approaches to working with 取得并保持“一带一路”基础设施项目交付的 complex and competing interests which, in 社会认可对于战略的最终成功至关重要。 turn, have allowed them to effectively manage 未随澳大利亚矿业繁荣而逝的一个红利是： reputational risk and to secure a social licence 澳洲企业在对当地条件的灵敏度、公平交易和 to operate. 良好的企业责任等方面建立了良好的声誉。 Chinese companies investing and partnering 各种规模的能源与资源项目的完成交付令澳 with Australian construction companies can 大利亚的工程建设公司获得宝贵经验, 具备以 utilise and leverage their expertise in developing and maintaining a social licence and 各种先进手段处理各类复杂事务及冲突性利益的能力，同时，也使得他们能有效管理信誉风 seek to dispel myths about China’s greater 险，取得社会认可开展运营。 ambitions underlying the One Belt One Road. 中国企业投资并与澳大利亚工程技术公司合 While Australia does not fall on the One Belt 作可以利用澳方的专业知识和技术形成与保持 One Road map, it nonetheless presents 社会认可，并且，设法消除“一带一路”框架 Australian construction companies with an 下有关中国野心的虚妄之言。 opportunity to gain from the spreading of 虽然澳大利亚并非位于“一带一路”的蓝图 economic development. 中，但是，澳大利亚的工程技术企业仍然可以 Supporting the One Belt One Road initiative, 从经济发展的延伸中觅得商机。 together with our involvement in the G20 Hub 支持“一带一路”的倡议以及参与G20峰会 and Asia Infrastructure Bank, means Australian 全球基础设施中心与亚洲基础设施银行的项目 construction companies can be participants 建设，意味着澳大利亚的工程建设公司可以成 rather than bystanders in an initiative that is 为倡议的参与者而非旁观者，如同十四世纪 likely to reshape the global economy as the Silk 的“丝绸之路”一样，重塑全球经济。 Road did in the 14th century. 商道

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 59

LEGAL

法律

By Howard Rapke, Head of litigation practice and dispute resolution group, Holding Redlich 作者：霍华德·瑞普克，豪力律师事务所诉讼业务和争议解决团队总监

小心，悠着点

PLAYING IT SAFE

As penalties increase and the various anti-corruption watchdogs around the world bare their teeth, there is now a significant focus in both China and Australia on how businesses conduct themselves to ensure that they do not engage in corruption, writes Howard Rapke. 随着处罚的加重以及在全球各种反腐败监管机构的虎视眈眈之下，中国和澳大利亚商界现在已开始大力关注于企业应当如何行事方能确保不被卷入腐败案件之中——Howard Rapke。

ore than ever, managing directors, CEOs and senior managers need to be aware of anti-corruption compliance and the need to implement risk management strategies. The issue of corruption in China is firmly in the spotlight. In November 2012, President Jinping said “if corruption becomes increasingly serious, it will inevitably doom the Party and the State. We must be vigilant...” Since taking over the role, President Jinping has driven a strong program of investigating corruption in China. Similarly, there is a now a real focus within Australia on the conduct of Australian businesses and businesspeople operating internationally, including in Asia.

RELEVANT AUSTRALIAN LAWS

In Australia, the law states that Australian companies or individuals who bribe a foreign official can be prosecuted under federal criminal law with individuals now potentially jailed for up to 10 years or fined up to $1.1 million. Companies can also be hit with a 60 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

heavy fine in the form of a proportion of the benefit obtained or a percentage of the corporation’s turnover. Under the Federal Criminal Code, a person is guilty of an offence if they provide a benefit to another person or promise to provide a benefit to another person; the benefit is not normally due to the other person; and the benefit was provided with the intention of influencing a foreign public official in order to obtain or retain business.

THE CONCEPTS OF ‘BENEFIT’ AND ‘FOREIGN PUBLIC OFFICIAL’ ARE CRITICAL

The definition of ‘benefit’ is broad and can range from small gifts, travel or entertainment for government officials through to large monetary payments. The definition of a ‘foreign public official’ is wide and includes an employee or official of a foreign government, or a person who performs public duties under a foreign law. It applies to any conduct committed outside Australia by an Australian citizen or by an Australian corporation. 商道

相

较过去而言，董事总经理、首席执行官以及高级经理们如今更需要了解自身的反腐败合规情况以及实施相关的风险管控策略。在中国，反腐败问题最受瞩目。 2012年11月，习近平主席指出：“腐败问题越演越烈，最终必然会亡党亡国！我们要警醒啊……”在接任主席职位之后，习近平就掀起了一场严查中国腐败问题的惊涛骇浪。同样，澳大利亚如今亦将目光投向那些在全球（包括亚洲）开展经营的澳籍企业和商人的所作所为。相关的澳大利亚法律澳大利亚法律规定：贿赂外国官员的澳籍企业或个人将会依照《联邦刑法》受到起诉；个人可能会面临长达10年的监禁或高达110万美元的罚款，而企业则可能会被处以所获利润或公司营业额一定比例的重罚。根据《联邦刑法》，如果一位人士向他人提供了好处或承诺向他人提供好处，且该好处并非其正常应欠他人的好处，同时提供该好处的目的是影响一位外国公职人员以便获得或保住业务，则该等行为构成犯罪。 “好处”以及“外国公职人员”的概念至关重要 “好处”的定义十分宽泛，从向政府官员赠送

LEGAL

法律

Since taking up the role, President Jinping has driven a strong program of investigating corruption. It is important to remember that companies are liable for the actions of their employees and agents under Australian law. Our understanding is the same and would be applicable under Chinese law, such that people who engaged in bribery while acting as an agent may be individually prosecuted and liable, but the company may suffer the consequences of its agent’s or employee’s behaviour. Examples of conduct that constitutes foreign bribery are outlined in a resource guide issued by the American Department of Justice in respect to its bribery laws (the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act 1974 (FCPA)).

INTERNATIONAL ANTI-CORRUPTION ACTION

The American Department of Justice has been very active in prosecuting bribery offences for quite some time. Similarly, from 1 July 2010 the United Kingdom brought into effect its bribery act. The Australian Government is also now focusing more on the conduct of Australian companies abroad. Consequently, if you are a business person in China dealing with an American, a British or an Australian company, there could be risks for the company and its directors and officers, in dealing with corporations within these jurisdictions who may seek to play outside the rules.

的小礼物、安排的旅游或娱乐活动到支付的大额钱款等等不一而足。“外国公职人员”的定义亦十分广泛，包括外国政府的雇员或官员，或一位依照外国法律履行公共职责的人士。一位澳大利亚公民或一家澳大利亚公司在澳大利亚境外实施的任何行为均适用该法。最重要的是，依照澳大利亚法律，企业需要为其雇员和代理人的所作所为负责。我们的理解是一样的，这在中国法律中亦然，也就是说以代理人身份实施贿赂行为的人士可能会被单独起诉并担责，但企业亦可能需要承担其代理人/雇员行为所产生的后果。美国司法部基于其自身的反贿赂法规（1974 年的《反海外贿赂法》）发布了一份指南，其中列出了构成海外贿赂行为的相关范例。国际反腐败行动美国司法部长期以来都在积极起诉各种贿赂犯罪行为。同样，2010年7月1日，英国的反贿赂法亦开始正式生效。澳大利亚政府如今亦开始将更多目光投向澳大利亚公司的海外行为。因此，如果您是一位在中国与一家美国、英国或澳大利亚公司打交道的商人，在与这些国家的企业打交道的过程中，公司及其董事或高管可能会因为后者试图游走在法律边缘而面临相关的风险。哪些是可被接受的行为？当然，向政府官员赠送礼物或安排娱乐活动仍然是允许的，前提是事情要办得合适妥当。各种反贿赂法规普遍允许赠送的礼物包括各种聊表心意的小礼物或小物品，比如正常往来中合理的餐饮和招待支出或公司的推广性物品，以及不太可能因此而影响一位官员的其它事物。但是，您无疑需要了解并提防的是更大金额或奢侈的礼物，构成“贿赂”的大范围赠送小礼品的行为，以及可以被视为有明确企图影响一位官员行为的昂贵礼品的赠送。应对反腐败法规当您在海外做生意之时，如果您对员工的态度表示担心，或者对您正在打交道的代理人或合资方表示担心，那么您切勿像鸵鸟那样把头埋在沙子里。为了保卫您自身的地位以及公司的地位，请务必确保公司实施有一套内部政策和规章制度，严令禁止无论是董事还是基层雇员实施任何贿赂行为。您应安排合适的高级经理对雇员进行这方面的培训。此外，在任何公司内部，“声音都是从高层——亦即董事长——传下来的”，所以一定要以身作则。同样，请扪心自问这些重要的问题：你是否因为一位政府官员的要求而雇用了某人？是否有商道

The following are real life examples of companies that have run into difficulties: 1. Providing travel for Chinese officials to popular US tourist destinations for “training” where no (or very little) training occurred and the company had no facilities or residents at the destinations. 2. Providing travel for inspections and training, in circumstances where the officials spent little or no time at the company’s facilities and instead went to Hawaii, Law Vegas, Niagra Falls, the Grand Canyon, Disneyworld, Universal Studios and New York City. 3. Providing business class flights to Paris with five star hotel accommodation for a Chinese official and his wife that consisted primarily of touring various tourist destinations via a chauffeur driven vehicle. 4. Giving business class air tickets to a cousin and close friend of a Government official whose influence the company sought in obtaining lucrative contracts.

以下是一些会让企业陷入麻烦的现实例子： 1. 为中国官员安排到知名美国旅游目的地参加“培训”，而实际上并没有真正安排任何培训（或者微乎其微），并且该公司在此等旅游目的地并没有任何附属机构或常驻机构。 2. 安排考察及培训行程，但官员没有或几乎没有到访过该公司的办公场所，而是前往夏威夷、拉斯维加斯、尼亚加拉大瀑布、大峡谷、迪斯尼乐园、环球影城以及纽约市旅游。 3. 为中国官员及其妻子购买飞往巴黎的公务舱机票并安排入住五星级酒店，且主要行程是乘坐一辆由专门司机驾驶的车辆前往各个旅游胜地旅游。 4. 为一位政府官员的堂兄弟姊妹和密友购买公务舱机票，因为该官员可以帮助该公司拿到利润丰厚的合同。

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LEGAL

SO, WHAT IS ACCEPTABLE BEHAVIOUR?

Of course, providing certain gifts or entertainment to government officials is still permissible – but only if done correctly and appropriately. The gifts that are generally acceptable under the various bribery laws include small gifts or tokens of esteem; items of nominal value such as reasonable meal and entertainment expenses or company promotional items; and things that are unlikely to influence an official. However it is certainly important to be aware and cautious of larger or extravagant gift giving; widespread gifts of smaller items as part of a pattern of behaviour or “bribes”; and expensive gifts which could be seen to be given with a clear intent to influence an official’s behaviour.

DEALING WITH ANTI-BRIBERY LEGISLATION

If you have concerns about the attitude of your staff, or concerns regarding agents or joint venture parties that you are dealing with while doing business abroad, you certainly cannot afford to bury you head in the sand. In order to safeguard your own position and that of your company it is important to ensure that you have internal policies and procedures that set out clearly to your 62 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

法律

employees, from board level down, that bribery is simply not acceptable. It is important that your employees are trained in those policies by appropriately senior managers. Further, in any company, “the tone starts from the top – from the Chairman down” so it is important to set an example. Also, ask yourself the important questions: Are you hiring someone based on a government official’s request? Is a customer insisting that you use a particular person or company as an intermediary? If the answers to these questions ring alarm bells, be prepared to take swift remedial action.

PLAYING IT SAFE

In an era where there is an ever-increasing focus on bribery and corruption – and the penalties and various regulators are getting tougher - it is important to safeguard you and your business. If you don’t already have them, make it a priority to put in place comprehensive internal policies to safeguard against corruption and ensure that everyone from top down is aware of these – and the potentially serious ramifications if they are not followed. If any of your business activities cross international borders, be sure to stay up-todate with the latest developments in this fast-moving and often highly political area of the law. 商道

Make it a priority to put in place thorough policies against corruption. 一位客户坚持指定某位人士或某家公司担任中间人？如果这些问题的答案是肯定的，则请尽快采取补救措施。小心，悠着点在这个贿赂与贪污日益受到关注、并且处罚和打击力度愈来愈大的时代，请保护好自己以及您的企业。如果您还没有相关的内部政策，请优先考虑推出一套全面的内部政策来避免腐败行为，并确保从高层经理到基层员工都了解这些政策，以及违反这些政策所可能面临的严重后果。如果您需要跨境开展任何业务活动，请确保及时掌握这块瞬息万变并且通常与政治高度相关的法律领域的最新进展。

LEGAL

法律

商道

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 6 3

MARKETING

市场营销

By Delia Deng, Marketing and communications consultant Australia Asia Executive Centre 作者：鄧凱欣，澳亚高管中心营销和传播咨询专家

社交媒体：全球化的好帮手

GO GLOBAL, GO SOCIAL

Cross-cultural intelligence is crucial in the execution of business strategy. And the golden child in modern marketing is social media, which enables brands to create personal connections with global audiences. Here’s how to fuse the two. 跨文化智商在企业战略的执行中至关重要，而社交媒体是当代营销界的“金童子”，它帮助各大品牌与全球受众建立人脉关系。以下来看如何把两者结合运用。

arketing across cultures has never been easy. Cultural competence has always been important in international trade, and now more than ever with digital media having the power to quickly transmit cultural blunders around the world. An understanding of each specific culture is quintessential to understanding the market segment for effective brand communications and promotions. The golden child in modern marketing is social media, which enables brands to create personal connections with global audiences. But what is a social media strategy? Put simply, every action taken on social media must be a part of a broader marketing strategy. This means every single post, like, and comment must be guided by a plan towards predetermined goals. It may sound complex, but as long as you take the time to build a comprehensive social media strategy, the rest of your social efforts will flow like clockwork. 64 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

Here’s a brief rundown on how to dominate your social media.

UNDERSTAND YOUR GOALS

Having clear goals provides a means of measuring your success and return on investment. Aligning your goals with your broader marketing strategy will allow your social media efforts to drive towards overarching business goals. This may include increasing sales and website traffic, raising awareness of a new product, or building a community and customer loyalty around your brand. It is best to focus on only a few goals, so that your brand is portraying a clear message. A simple way to begin your social media strategy is by writing down three social media goals, and relevant objectives. Be sure to use the SMART approach so that objectives are specific, measurable, attainable, relevant and time-bound. For example: For Instagram we will share 商道

跨

文化营销从来就非易事。文化沟通能力在国际贸易中历来重要，而当今的数字化媒体更能在瞬息之间让企业由于文化上的某个错误导致其成为全球笑柄。掌握每种特定的文化有助于我们充分了解这个市场并开展有效的品牌宣传和推广。社交媒体绝对是当代营销界的“金童子”；它帮助各大品牌与全球受众建立人脉关系。但到底什么是社交媒体策略呢？简而言之，在社交媒体上的一言一行都必须是一项更广泛营销策略的一部分。这意味着每个帖子、每个赞以及每个评论都必须遵循一项旨在达成预定目标的计划。听起来似乎有点复杂，但只要您花一点时间来制订一项综合社交媒体策略的话，那么您剩下的工作自然将水到渠成。以下简单介绍如何管控好您自己的社交媒体。了解您的各项目标拥有清晰的目标可以帮助您对成功的程度以及投资回报率进行衡量。确保让您的目标与更广泛的营销策略保持契合，从而通过社交媒体方面的工作来推动总体业务目标的实现。这包括提升

MARKETING

市场营销

photos that show products from our new product mission statements for each social network line. This will include posting 5 photos a week profile, in order to focus your efforts on a that will achieve 50 likes, and 20 comments each. specific goal. For example, ‘We will use Instagram to showcase the uses of our product CHARACTERISE YOUR CUSTOMERS and attract new customers.’ Targeting the right people with the right message is crucial. Understanding your ADD SOME CONTENT! audience becomes an even bigger task when Engaging content is vital to social media marketing in a foreign culture, where success. Your content strategy should cover the communication involves a careful balance of type of content created for the brand, content cultural intelligence and translations. curation, and an editorial calendar. It is also Sit down and create the persona of your specific to each platform. ideal customer. What is their name? What is Your editorial calendar lists the dates, times their nationality and heritage? How old are they? and content you intend to post on each What do they like and dislike – does their culture platform. It is more efficient to create and come into play here? And so on. If you have more schedule your content in advance rather than than one ideal customer, construct a persona updating constantly each day. Preparing for each. content also allows for consistency in the After you have created your personas, explore language and format used. A rule commonly their media habits. Which social media platforms used by marketers is the ‘Social Media Rule of do they specifically use, and for what purpose? Thirds’: 1/3 content that directly promotes your brand personality, 1/3 content that RESEARCH YOUR COMPETITORS promotes your business and generates profit, Observing your competitors gives you a great and 1/3 reposts and shares of ideas and stories opportunity to learn from their successes from external industry leaders and media and mistakes. influencers. Take your top three competitors and identify which social media platforms they are MEASURE YOUR FEEDBACK using, and the nature of their content. Are they Align your efforts back to your pre-determined using cultural references? What tone of voice goals by using social media analytics to do they use? Do they concentrate on text, photo, measure progress. Ensure that you are or video media? Do they talk primarily about constantly testing social media effectiveness their products, or company culture, or other through measurements such as tracking page focuses? What key words and relevant hashtags visits, customer engagement, customer do they use? sentiment, and customer surveys (both For example: If your business sells cars, online and offline). Tools that support this do your competitors focus on their engine stage include Facebook Insights and performance and fuel consumption, or do Google Analytics. they post enticing travel videos that show the lifestyle that is attached to their branding? SEE WHAT WORKS Examine their engagement to gauge how The social media landscape is constantly effective their content is. changing, and so to should your social media strategy. Networks may emerge or disappear, AUDIT YOUR SOCIAL MEDIA PRESENCE users may turn their attention to different Assess any current social media presence the platforms, and sub-cultural divides may brand currently has, and analyse whether it is become evident. Social media strategy is meant working. This entails a clear picture of every to change, so being flexible and incorporating account representing the business, who runs or learnings into your plan will ensure you stay on controls them, how to access them, and what top of the social media game. purpose they serve. Ensure that all fraudulent accounts are closed down, and that all accounts Australia Asia Executive Center provides are on brand in terms of their profile photos, executive cross-cultural coaching, with cover photos, brand descriptions and so on. programs that cover digital marketing and It is also beneficial to create one-sentence communications strategies.

商道

Which Chinese platform will you choose? WeChat WeChat is mainly a mobile text and voice messaging communication platform, and is the largest standalone messaging app in China, with over 650 million monthly active users. If you only use one social media platform in China, use this one. It supports video calls, games, news articles, money transactions, a personal ‘Moments’ feed, and more – prompting marketers to laud it as China’s version of Facebook and Whatsapp. Customers are able to interact with brands by subscribing to official accounts, following posts and purchasing products through the app.

Qzone Qzone is a social networking website, which allows users to publish blogs, send photos, listen to music, and watch videos. It has 150 million monthly active users, and again offers similar features to Facebook, such as ad links, blog publications, reposts and shares, photo albums, and commenting. It links to the highly popular instant messaging tool QQ. Like WeChat, accounts are also restricted, where an ordinary account can support 500 followers, but VIP accounts support 1,000 followers at $AUD25.

Sina Weibo Weibo is a microblogging website, also known as the Chinese version of Twitter, where there are also 140 character limits, @ signs for ID, RT for reposts, hashtags and newsfeeds. Weibo has a gamified reward system, where users are encouraged to spend more time on the site and receive medals for meeting milestones, and interacting with people and brands. Although Weibo has less total market penetration than Qzone, it boasts more monthly active users, at 222 million.

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 6 5

MARKETING

市场营销

Australia is second only to the US as a destination for Chinese. 销量以及网站流量，提高新产品的知名度，或围绕您的品牌建立一个社区以及打造顾客忠诚度。建议您最好只专注于少数目标，这样您的品牌才可传递一个清晰的信号。实施社交媒体策略最简单的一个方法就是写下三个社交媒体目标，以及相关的目的。请务必使用SMART方法来确保这些目的的具体性、可衡量性、可实现性、相关性以及时效性。例如：对于Instagram，我们将分享旨在展示新产品的照片。这其中将包括每周发5张照片，每张照片获得50个赞以及20个评论。剖析您的客户将正确的信息传递给正确的对象，这一点非常重要。在外国文化背景下开展营销工作需要慎之又慎地取得文化智商与翻译之间的平衡，此时充分了解您的受众将成一个更重要的任务。请坐下来建立您心目中理想顾客的特征库。他们的名字是什么？他们的国籍和传统又是什么？他们的年龄有多大？他们有哪些喜好——他们的文化在这里能产生影响吗……以及诸如此类。如果您拥有一位以上的理想顾客，请分别为每位顾客建立特征资料。在建立特征库之后，调查他们的社交媒体使用习惯，比如他们喜欢使用哪些社交媒体平台，以及为什么使用这些平台？研究您的竞争对手认真观察您的竞争对手，因为您将有机会从他们的成功和失误当中学习到经验教训。列出您的前三大竞争对手，并明确它们使用哪些社交媒体平台，以及所发布内容的性质。它们是否做了文化借鉴？它们使用的是哪一种口吻？它们是否专注于文字、照片还是视频类媒体？它们是否主要讲述的它们的产品、公司文化还是有其它侧重点？它们使用哪些关键字以及相关主题标签？例如：如果贵公司的业务是销售汽车，那么您的竞争对手是否专注于它们的发动机性能以及油耗表现，还是发布一些极具诱惑力的旅行视频来展示其品牌背后所体现的生活方式？研究它们的互动情况以便了解其所发布内容的有效性。

这个过程需要我们全面了解代表企业的每一个帐号，由谁来运营和控制这些帐号，如何访问这些帐号，以及这些帐号分别服务于哪些目的。确保关闭所有的李鬼帐号，并且所有帐号在头像、封面照片、品牌描述等等均符合品牌策略。您还可以在每个社交网络平台的介绍资料中添加一句使命说明，以便将您的工作专注于某项具体的目标。例如，“我们将利用Instagram向顾客展示如何使用我们的产品，并吸引更多的新顾客。” 增加一些内容！引人入胜的内容对于社交媒体的成功至为重要。您的内容策略应涵盖为品牌所创作的内容类型、内容策展以及编辑计划。每个平台应当各不相同。您的编辑计划应列出您打算在每个平台上所发布的内容、发布日期以及发布时间。提前制作和规划您的内容要比每天持续更新来得更高效。在准备内容之时亦需确保语言和格式上的一致性。营销人员最常遵循的一条法则就是“社交媒体三分法则”，即三分之一的内容用于直接推广您的品牌，三分之一的内容用于推广您的业务并产生利润，剩下三分之一的内容用于转发并分享外部行业领袖以及社交媒体红人的想法和故事。衡量您所获得的反馈利用社交媒体分析工具来衡量您的进展情况，以确保所有的工作都朝着预定的目标努力。确保您始终通过各种数据来检验社交媒体的有效性，比如追踪页面浏览量、顾客互动、顾客情绪以及顾客调查（线上和线下）。该阶段可供使用的工具包括Facebook Insights以及Google Analytics。看看哪些平台效果显著社交媒体格局一直在不断演变，而您的社交媒体策略亦需如是。不断有各种网络平台崛起或覆灭，而用户亦可能会将注意力转向不同的平台，并且亚文化差异可能会变得更加显著。社交媒体策略走的就是一条变化之道；因此，确保充足的灵活性并将学习到的内容整合到您的计划之中；唯有如此您方能在社交媒体竞赛之中立于不败之地。

评估您在社交媒体上的知名度评估品牌当前在任何社交媒体上的知名度，以澳亚高管中心提供面向高管人员的跨文化指导，及分析通过社交媒体来推广品牌是否行之有效。课程涵盖各种数字化营销以及宣传策略。 66 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

商道

您会选择哪些中国平台？微信微信主要是一个移动文字和语音通讯平台，并是中国最大的独立通讯应用，每月活跃用户数量超过6.5亿。如果您只打算在中国使用一个社会媒体平台，那么微信即是您的上选。它支持视频通话、游戏、新闻、现金交易、朋友圈推送等众多功能；营销人员将其推崇为中国版的 Facebook和Whatsapp。顾客可以通过关注官方公众号、接收消息以及在应用内购买产品的方式与品牌进行互动。

QQ空间 QQ空间是一个社交平台；用户可以通过该平台发布博客、上传照片、欣赏音乐以及观看视频。QQ空间每月拥有1.5亿的活跃用户，并提供了与Facebook类似的种种功能特性，比如广告链接、博客发布、转发和分享、相册以及评论等。它与流行的即时通讯工具QQ保持着密切关联。和微信一样，QQ空间的帐号也存在各种限制，即普通帐号只能支持500位粉丝，但花费25澳元购买的VIP帐号可以支持1000 位粉丝。

新浪微博微博是一个微型博客平台，亦被称之为中国版的Twitter，并且也同样存在140字的字数限制，同样使用“@”来表示ID 号以及使用“RT”来表示转发，也同样有主题标签（hashtag）和新闻推送（newsfeed）。微博通过一个游戏化的奖励制度来鼓励用户在平台上逗留更多的时间；用户在完成一定任务、与其它用户和品牌互动之后将获得经验值。虽然与QQ空间相比，微博的市场渗透率欠佳，但它拥有更多的每月活跃用户，达到 2.22亿。

MARKETING

市场营销

商道

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 67

CULTURE

文化

By Narelle Hooper and Rodin Genoff 作者：那瑞尔·傅博和罗丁·杰诺夫

新女性、新男性、新经济

NEW WOMEN, NEW MEN, NEW ECONOMY

Across the world we see organisations with more women in leadership roles delivering superior financial returns, increasing productivity and tapping the ingenuity of their people. In this excerpt from their new book New women, new men, new economy, Narelle Hooper and Rodin Genoff explain why. 商业上的必要性了然可见，市场正在帮我们做出选择。我们看到全球范围内有众多企业在有更多女性进入领导层之后实现了丰厚的财务回报、提高了生产效率并充分发挥出员工的聪明才智。在《新女性、新男性、新经济》一书中，作者Narelle Hooper和Rodin Genoff向我们阐述了为什么一个更包容的企业、社会和国家能够做得更好、更具创造力、释放出新的价值，并实现长期的繁荣。

rom sleepy Cowes, a quick hop across the North Sea brings us to the design capitals of Oslo and Stockholm. Here Swedish and Norwegian innovation agencies have been trying something unprecedented. They want to find out what happens when you put gender in the middle of the innovation equation. A group of women industrial designers have worked up a concept car for Volvo, while another has designed super yachts for high-end luxury consumers. The Swedes and Norwegians have been rewriting the policy book on productivity and innovation, working across sectors from health care and leisure to forestry and steel. They’ve been testing their approaches in Gender and Diversity Labs, and discovering, for example, that gender-balanced teams have reduced waiting time and staff workloads at the Karolinska Hospital

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emergency department in Stockholm. They are applying this research so businesses can win in some of the most lucrative and fast-growing markets in the world. With just 15 million people between them, these two nations know that to maintain their ranking as top global innovators, everyone counts. You need to use 100% of your talent. And the answer is that adding women to the innovation equation changes things – a lot. Charlotte Brogren, head of Sweden’s innovation agency, Vinnova, likens integrating a gender perspective to turning a kaleidoscope. “Fostering innovation requires the ability to question what is taken for granted and perceived as the natural order,” she writes. “The resulting shift in perspective causes new images and highlights new opportunities ... There is little doubt that integrating a gender perspective helps [in] promoting innovation.” 商道

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们从令人昏昏欲睡的考兹乘坐一辆短途飞机飞越北海，来到了设计之都奥斯陆以及斯德哥尔摩。这里的瑞典和挪威创新机构正在尝试前所未有的一些东西。他们希望了解将性别放在创新等式中间之时会发生什么。一个由女性工业设计师组成的团队为沃尔沃设计出一款概念车型，另一个女性设计师团队则设计出面向高端奢侈品消费者的超级游艇。从卫生保健行业、度假产业到林业乃至钢铁工业，瑞典人和挪威人一直在重新书写生产力和创新政策手册。他们在性别和多样性实验室测试了不同的方法，并发现（比如）位于斯德哥尔摩的卡罗林斯卡医院在启用性别均衡型团队之后减少了等待时间以及员工的工作负荷。他们当前正在推动这项研究的应用，帮助企业在全球最赚钱、增长最快的市场当中胜出。虽然合计人口仅有1500万，但瑞典和挪威深谙如何维持两国身为全球顶极创新者的排名——每个人都很重要。您需要充分发挥自身的聪明才智，而解决之道就是将女性加入创造

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Those with genderbalanced R&D teams were more likely to be “radically innovative”. Researchers at Vinnova unearthed compelling data that showed traditional gender-segregated project teams constrained innovation. They found enterprises with a gender-balanced workforce were twice as innovative as those with gendersegregated workforces. And let’s not think this is just a phenomenon in countries that top the innovation and equality rankings. In a 2013 study of manufacturing companies, researchers from the University of Castilla–La Mancha in Spain found that those with gender-balanced R&D teams were more likely to be “radically innovative” and come up with market-changing products and services. The news gets even better when it comes to the strike rate for start-ups. The Dow Jones 2015 Women at the Wheel survey of US tech start-ups showed that those with more senior

women leaders had a 61% success rate compared with 50% for those with all men. To this we add the power of shaking up social norms. The Swedes are not above busting some macho myths (they call it “norm critical innovation”). For example, Viking tough-guy workwear company Blåkläder had an unexpected hit on its hands when it promoted a heavy duty work kilt for tradies. It won a Swedish product design award. And yes – it even exports a hi-vis version to Scotland.

MANUFACTURING CHANGE

Across the Pacific, in the industrial heartland of the US, Milwaulkee-based Rockwell Automation is another example of a company trying to get fit for the future. The automation and robotics company, which employs 20,000, grew out of the military industrial complex of 商道

等式之中——效果相当显著。 Charlotte Brogren是瑞典创新机构Vinnova 的负责人；她将纳入性别视角的过程比喻为旋转万花筒的过程：“推动创新需要创新者有能力质疑那些被认为理所当然的东西。视角的最终转变催生出新的局面，并开创了新的机遇... 毫无疑问，纳入性别视角帮助推动了创新。” Vinnova的研究人员发现了一些证实传统两性隔离型的项目团队会束缚创新的有力数据，即员工性别均衡型企业的创新能力比员工两性隔离型的企业高出一倍。请勿认为这仅仅是创新和两性平等排名高居榜首的国家才有的现象。在一项于2013年对制造企业开展的研究之中，来自西班牙卡斯蒂利亚-拉曼恰大学的研究人员发现那些性别均衡型的研发团队更有望取得“重大创新”，并发明出改变市场的产品和服务。当谈到初创企业的成功率之时，结果就更引人瞩目了。2015年道琼斯对美国科技初创企业开展的“女性主管”调查显示：拥有更多高级女性主管的初创企业的成功率达到61%，而那些成员都是男性的初创企业的成功率只有50%。为此，我们加强了顛覆社会标准的力度。瑞典人还很乐于打破某些硬汉传奇（他们称之为“打破常规的创新”）。例如，在推广一款面向施工人员的耐用型工作裙的过程中，北欧硬汉工装制造商Blaklader出乎意料地发现销量十分喜人。该款工作裙斩获了瑞典产品设计大奖——是的，该公司甚至向苏格兰出口了一款高能见度版本的工作裙。 H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 69

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“We had to have those hard conversations in order to move to a place of greater understanding” the 1950s. It is considered one of the world’s most ethical companies, and is a member of leading sustainability indices such as Dow Jones and FTSE4Good. More recently it has begun to focus on developing more inclusive organisational cultures to drive a more collaborative mindset. In 2013 Rockwell partnered up with diversity group Catalyst.org and consultants White Men as Full Diversity Partners to understand how its mostly white, middle-aged North American sales unit could become more open to women and other minorities. Its staff participated in Learning Labs and gained some new strategies to create more inclusive work teams. Je McGee, Channel Sales Manager, blogged that it was one of the most moving and impactful experiences of his life. “The conversations we had in the labs were tough; men and women gave each other some really raw and honest feedback. But we had to have those hard conversations in order to move to a place of greater understanding, where we could continue to feel comfortable talking about sensitive issues at work.” Indeed, this is a consistent theme for organisations making the cultural shift to New. The leaders we spent time with stressed the importance of these hard and respectful conversations to get teams to build trust and a shared understanding. Initiatives such as these help teams work better together in an environment where real-time connectivity is critical. Hence Rockwell Automation is shifting to a “Connected Enterprise” model, linking processes and facilities to suppliers and customers in new ways. It brings suppliers and customers together to optimise innovation, not just reduce costs.

NEW VALUE

We’re all by now familiar with another rapidly growing space in the New Economy, one which taps latent talent, assets and resources using 70 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

mobile and social technologies. Airbnb, Air Tasker, Kickstarter, Uber, the sharing platform TuShare and carbon neutral parcel delivery service Sendle are part of the explosive rise of the sharing economy. In this space we also find a new generation of social enterprises. They’re neither purely business, nor government, nor charity. It’s the blurring of the lines between business and society. Sydney-based couple James Bradfield Moody and Geraldine Chin share the care of their children and their career development. Chin is group executive for people, culture and sustainability at Virgin Australia. What sparked a new business opportunity for them was finding themselves in a situation that will be familiar to anyone who has had a baby – what to do with all the leftover kids’ stuff and how to stop it going to the tip. Moody, a former CSIRO executive and author of The Sixth Wave: How to succeed in a resource limited world, teamed up with colleague Kohei Nishimiya and established the online sharing platform TuShare. Most of us have at some time used Amazon – you buy something and they’ll ship it for free. TuShare does the opposite – it allows you to give stuff away for free and charges a nominal fee for shipping. Since its 2013 launch, the TuShare community has shipped tens of thousands of items and estimates it has saved thousands of kilograms of waste from the tip. It now has a team of seven on board. People have given away everything from cars to pianos and spare icecream makers, not to mention baby clothes. What makes TuShare special is that it taps into the values of a community of people who want to do more for the environment. The platform functions on weight, so customers can easily tell how much stuff they have shared and saved from going to the tip. Moody’s practical altruism is becoming a money-spinner. TuShare gave rise to an 商道

制造变革穿过太平洋，在美国的工业腹地，位于密尔沃基的罗克韦尔自动化公司则向我们展示了一家公司是如何去努力迎合未来的趋势。这家拥有2 万名员工的自动化和机器人制造企业的前身是50 年代的一家军事工业集团。该公司被视为全球最符合伦理标准的企业之一，并是一系列知名可持续发展指数的常客，比如道琼斯指数和富时社会责任指数（FTSE4Good）。近年来，该公司开始专注于发展一个更包容性的组织文化，以便打造一个更具合作精神的意识形态。 2013年，罗克韦尔与C a t a l y s t . o r g 以及 White Men咨询公司合作成立了一个“全面多样性伙伴组织”，以了解其以中年白人员工为主的北美销售部应当如何对女性和其它少数族裔更为开放。其员工参与了“学习实验室”，并得出了一些关于成立更包容性工作团队的全新策略。渠道销售经理Je McGee发博客称这是他一生当中最振奋人心的体验之一：“我们在实验室中的谈话十分艰难；男员工和女员工之间相互提出了尖锐而坦诚的反馈。但我们必须召开这样的艰难谈话，以便更好地相互理解对方，从而在工作之时可以轻松讨论一些敏感话题。” 实际上，向新文化转变是广大企业的一个永恒主题。我们所接触过的领导们都强调了开展此类对话的重要性，以便让团队建立信任以及取得相互理解。与之类似的各种举措帮助团队在一个实时连接性至关重要的环境下实现更好地协作。因此，罗克韦尔自动化公司正在向一个“互联企业”模式转型，以全新的方式实现各个过程及设施与供应商及客户之间的互联。它将供应商和客户汇聚在一起以便优化创新，而不仅仅是降低成本。全新价值观现在，我们所有人都已认识了“新经济” 当中另一个飞速发展的领域；这个领域利用移动和社交技术来充分挖掘隐匿的才智、资产和资源。Airbnb、Air Tasker、Kickstarter、优步、共享平台TuShare以及碳中立包裹投送服务Sendle等等均属于风起云涌的分享经济领域中的弄潮儿。在这片领域中，我们也发现了新一代的社会型企业。它们既非纯粹的企业，亦非政府或慈善团体；在它们身上，企业和社团之间的界限十分模糊。位于悉尼的James Bradfield Moody和 Geraldine Chin夫妇分享了他们的育儿和职业发展故事。Chin是维珍澳洲航空公司主管人力、文化和可持续发展事务集团高管。他们所发现的一大商机正是有孩子的父母都熟知的情形：如何处理所有不用的婴儿用品，以及如何避免将它们扔掉。 Moody是澳大利亚联邦科学及工业研究组织的前任高管，也是《第六波：如何在一个资源有限的世界中取得成功》一书的作者；他与同

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alternative logistics business Sendle, which helps couriers use spare capacity. Sendle has picked up VC (venture capital) funding and is challenging an incumbent government postal business. It reflects a values-driven, entrepreneurial and global thinking that creates an environment where no good idea seems impossible. This is a space where social enterprises like The Funding Network create fun and inclusive social events to raise funds for targeted philanthropy. On a cold autumn night in Sydney, in the C-suite auditorium of the Commonwealth Bank, a group of 100 professionals and philanthropists gathered to hear pitches from four social entrepreneurs. One of these, engineer Alexie Seller, national manager for Pollinate Energy, spoke simply and with passion about the solar lamps that were bringing light to the urban slums of India. Founded by a group of 20-somethings, Pollinate has hit on a clever microentrepreneurship formula for helping mothers in the slums of Bangalore, Hyderabad, and soon, Calcutta. They’re building a network of entrepreneurs, called 72 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

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Pollinators, who work in their local community selling small solar lamps via microloans tracked by mobile phones. Not much bigger than a fist, the solar lamps do away with expensive and unhealthy kerosene lamps. There are solar stoves available too. These self-powering appliances allow families to save the money they would normally spend on kerosene for other things, provide light for their children to study by after sundown and help bring a future of hope. In three years, Pollinate has sold more than 8000 lamps, reaching nearly 40,000 people in more than 509 communities. They’ve won a UN Climate Secretariat Momentum for Change award. “It’s an honour to do this work,” says Seller – and a testament to ground-up community involvement and ownership. Not to mention that any bank would kill for the default rate on Pollinate Energy loans: “It’s less than one per cent,” she says. Inspired, the crowd of mostly young business professionals pledged enthusiastically, raising $110,000 for Pollinate and three other social enterprises in under an hour. 商道

事Kohei Nishimiya联手打造了在线分享平台TuShare。我们大部分人多多少少都使用过亚马逊—— 你在这个网站上购物，然后它们免费为您送货。TuShare所做的事则与之截然相反——它允许您将东西免费捐出，但运送则需要收取一笔象征性的费用。从2013年推出这个平台以来，TuShare已经运送了数以万计的物品，并减少了数千公斤的资源浪费。如今它的团队成员已增加到七人。用户捐出的东西五花八门，从玩具车到钢琴再到多余的冰淇淋机，更不用说各色的婴儿服装。是什么让TuShare如此不凡？因为它迎合了那些环保人士的价值观。该平台以重量为计算标准，因此用户可以很容易指出他们要分享以及避免被扔掉的东西有多少。 Moody务实的利他主义正在演变为一个赚大钱的买卖。TuShare的风生水起又帮助他推出了另一个物流企业Sendle；它帮助快递公司充分利用闲置的运送资源。Sendle已经获得了风险投资，并向政府邮递企业提出挑战。它体现了一种以价值驱动的全球性创业思维；这种思维造就了一个好点子源源不断的环境。在这个领域，诸如e Funding Network这样的社会型企业举办了各种欢乐而包容性的社交活动为一些有针对性的慈善事业募集资金。在悉尼的一个寒冷的冬夜，100多位专业人士和慈善家聚集在联邦银行的一个大礼堂内倾听四位社会型企业家的游说。其中一位发言人—— Pollinate Energy的全国经理Alexie Seller工程师——用简单但充满激情的语言讲述了为印度城市贫民窟送去光明的太阳能电灯。由20多个成员创立的Pollinate推出了一个绝妙的微创业模式来帮助那些生活在班加罗尔、海得拉巴以及加尔各达贫民区的母亲们。他们正在打造一个由个体户组成的网络组织，并称之为“授粉者（Pollinators）”；这些个体户在自己的社区内利用由移动电话追踪的小额贷款做小型太阳能电灯的买卖。大小与拳头相当的太阳能电灯取代了昂贵且不健康的煤油灯；同时还有太阳能炉子等产品。这些自我供电型产品帮助广大家庭节省出煤油钱以便用于购买其它东西，为他们的子女的学习送去光明，并帮助他们燃起未来的希望。在前三年期间，Pollinate售出了8000多台太阳能电灯，惠及509个社区的4万多人。他们摘得了联合国气候秘书处的“变革动力”奖。 Seller表示：“这项工作让我倍感自豪。”这也是切实参与社区工作的一个很好证明。任何银行都会为Pollinate Energy贷款不到1%的超低违约率而抓狂。受到鼓舞，年轻的商务专业人士纷纷热情承诺投资，不到一个小时的时间内Pollinate和其它三家社会型企业就募得了 11万美元。

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Biotech Battle As the axis of growth flips to emerging economies, countries such as China, India, Africa, South America and the MENA (Middle East and North African) region offer a competitive challenge to traditional Western economies. One great example is the battle over biotechnology between the US and China. In 2003, the human genome project succeeded in the equivalent of a moonshot, completing the first human genome sequence – the blueprint of life – after a decade of effort at a cost of nearly US$3 billion. Twelve years on, the cost of sequencing and analysis of DNA has plunged faster than computing’s Moore’s Law to just a few thousand dollars a genome. At this intersection of biology, computing power and software engineering lies a DNA sequencing market that is exploding. Analysts estimate that it will exceed more than $20 billion by 2020 as new potential uses emerge in everything from the treatment and prevention of cancer and genetic diseases to crop and animal health and preventative medical treatments. One of the leaders in this space is San Diego-based Illumina, which makes the machines that sequence our DNA. With a workplace culture that is entrenched in team-based, multidisciplinary work, Illumina has relentlessly stayed ahead of its competitors, servicing around 80% of the global market. In an old shoe factory in Shenzhen, Southern China, is one of Illumina’s biggest customers, and increasingly an arch rival, BGI. Founded in 1999 by four science colleagues – Wang Jian, Yu Jun, Yang Huanming and Liu Siqi – as the Beijing Genomics Institute, BGI has more than 5000 staff around the world. With a young workforce (the average age is 27), it has an

egalitarian and democratic corporate culture reflecting its founders’ experiences in the West. BGI has put China on the map in this rapidly developing sector and is advancing hopes of mass-affordability of genetic medicine. It operates for-profit businesses that support its extensive not-for-profit services. It collaborates with scores of institutions, including the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, on a range of health, nutrition and biopreservation projects. BGI sequences more DNA than any other institution on earth. Forbes magazine estimates that it accounts for half the world’s genome sequencing capacity. It has mapped out the genomes for humans, cancer cells, SARS, rice, insects, endangered Tasmanian devils and the giant panda and is working on projects such as cataloguing the genes of families with autism. BGI, which recently released a desktop genesequencing system, aims to bring the cost of gene sequencing to less than $1000 per genome, at which point it could be incorporated into normal medical care. The growing competitive tension between these two organisations reflects the broader economic recalibration between the US and China. They each have each other in their sights. But OECD charts show China is now second only to the US in terms of research spend and is poised to overtake it by 2019.

生物技术之战随着经济发展的轴心转向新兴经济体，一些国家和地区（如中国、印度、非洲、南美洲以及中东和北非地区（MENA））对传统的西方经济体提出了竞争挑战。中美之间的生物技术大战就是其中一个很好的例证。 2003年，人类基因组计划（HGP）历经

商道

十年的努力，斥资近30亿美元，终于实现了堪比登月计划的重大突破，完成了第一个人类基因序列——“生命蓝图”——的测定。12年来，计划对于DNA序列测定与分析的资金投入已经超过了计算领域的摩尔定律（Moore’s Law），达到一个基因组几千美元。汇集生物学、计算能力和软件工程等领域高尖技术的DNA序列测定市场势如破竹，如火如荼。分析估计，到2020年对该领域新的应用远景的投资将超过200亿美元，涉及从癌症和遗传疾病的治疗与预防到动植物健康与预防医疗等各方面。该领域领先企业之一是圣地亚哥的 Illumina公司。该公司研制出测定DNA序列的机器。本着以团队为基础、多学科合作的工作场所文化，Illumina不断超越其竞争对手，服务并占领80%的全球市场。 Illumina的头号劲敌华大基因（BGI）位于中国南部深圳市的一家老旧鞋厂内，也是 Illumina的最大客户之一。华大基因由四位科研同僚——汪建、于军、杨焕明和刘斯奇——于1999年创立，原名北京基因组研究所。目前，华大基因在全球各地拥有超过 5000名员工。这支年轻的企业队伍（平均年龄27岁）奉行平等和民主的企业文化，体现出创始人的西方经历和思维。华大基因已经带领中国踏上了这一飞速发展的列车，并大力推动基因医疗的全面普及。它以盈利业务的模式支持广泛的非营利服务。华大基因还与比尔及美琳达·盖茨基金会等众多机构在健康、营养和生物保鲜等一系列项目上展开合作。华大基因的DNA序列测定能力远超全球其它机构。据《福布斯》杂志估计，其基因测序规模已经达到全球一半。目前，华大基因已经完成人类、癌细胞、SARS、水稻、昆虫、濒危袋獾和大熊猫的基因组图谱绘制，正在进行孤独症家庭基因目录项目研究。最近，华大基因发布了一项桌面基因测序系统，旨在将基因测序的成本降低至每个基因组1000美元以下，这样的话就可以纳入正常医疗护理范围。两个机构之间的竞争不断升温，反映出中美两国更大范围的经济再调整。双方互相渗透各有所长。但是联合国经济合作与发展组织（OECD）的图表显示，就研究开支而言，中国目前仅次于美国并且有望在2019年实现赶超。

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 73

QuarterlyAustralian Australian Residential Residential Quarterly Quarterly Australian Residential PropertySurvey: Survey:Q4 Q4 2015 Property 2015 Property Survey: Q4 2015 by NAB Group Economics CULTURE

文化

Quarterly Australian Residential Property Survey: Q4 2015

NAB Group Economics byby NAB Group Economics

NAB’s Residential Property Index falls to its lowest level since mid-2012 as house price growth slows. QLD tipped toProperty lead country forfalls capital gains in thelevel next 1-2 years. Local investors playing agrowth smallerslows. role NAB’s Residential Property Index falls to its lowest level since mid-2012 house pricegrowth slows. NAB’s Residential Index to its lowest since mid-2012 asashouse price in both new and established property markets. Foreign buyers also less active, except in QLD. QLD tipped to lead country for capital gains in the next 1-2 years. Local investors playing a smaller role

QLD tipped to lead country for capital gains in the next 1-2 years. Local investors playing a smaller role in both established property markets. Foreign buyers also lessactive, active,except exceptininQLD. QLD. in both newnew andand established property markets. Foreign buyers also less

by NAB Group Economics

Property Index

PropertyIndex Index Property

NAB’s Residential Property Index fell to +1 in Q4 (it was +10 in Q3) and is now well below its long-term average (+13). Sentiment weakenedProperty in most states, QLD.+10 NAB’s Residential Indexespecially fell to +1 NSW in Q4and (it was VIC also softer, but Property strongest Index overallfell (replacing NSW) and NAB’s Residential to +1 in Q4 (it was +10 in Q3) and is now well below its long-term average (+13). currently only state tracking above its long-term average. in Q3) andthe is now well still below itsstates, long-term average (+13). Sentiment weakened in most especially NSW and QLD. Sentiment fell further in remains very weak WA.QLD. Sentiment weakened inSA/NT mostand states, especially NSWinand

VIC also softer, but strongest overall (replacing NSW) and VICcurrently also softer, NSW) and average. the but onlystrongest state still overall tracking(replacing above its long-term currently the fell only state still tracking itsvery long-term Sentiment further in SA/NT andabove remains weak inaverage. WA. Sentiment fell further in SA/NT and remains very weak in WA.

NAB’s Residential Property Index falls to its lowest level since mid-2012 as house price growth slows. Outlook QLD tipped to lead country for capital gains in the next 1-2 years. Local investors playing a smaller role Outlook Outlook in both new and established property markets. Foreign buyers also less active, except in QLD. Average house price expectations were scaled back in most states bar WA (but still negative). Highest capital growth expected in QLD and VIC next year with prices flat in NSW and falling in WA and SA/NT. QLD were to lead for capital gains in Average house price expectations scaled back in most 2 years’ time. NABstill hasnegative). also lowered its house price forecast states bar WA (but Highest capital growth Averagefor house price were scaled back in most 2016in to 1% expectations (from 2.3%), with weaker expectations all QLD and VIC next year with prices flat in for NSW statesexpected bar WA (but negative). Highest capital growth capitals (led still by Sydney and Melbourne). Unit prices are tipped and falling in WA and SA/NT. QLD to lead for capital gains in expected and VIC next year with flat in NSW toin fallQLD 1.2%, with flat to falling pricesprices in all capitals.

2 years’ NABSA/NT. has also lowered house price forecast and falling in time. WA and QLD to leaditsfor capital gains in for 2016 to 1% (from 2.3%), with weaker expectations for all 2 years’ time. NAB has also lowered its house price forecast capitals (led by Sydney and Melbourne). Unit prices are tipped for 2016 to 1% (from 2.3%), with weaker expectations for all to fall 1.2%, with flat to falling prices in all capitals. capitals (led by Sydney and Melbourne). Unit prices are tipped to fall 1.2%, with flat to falling prices in all capitals.

Foreign Buyers At a national level, foreign buyers were less prevalent in Q4, accounting for 14.4% of all new property sales (15.7% in Q3) and 8.6% in established markets (9% in Q3). Activity weakened in most states, except QLD, where foreign buyers accounted for 20.9% of new property sales (17.7% in Q3) and 8.9% of Atestablished a national properties level, foreign buyers lessbuyers prevalent Q4, (7.6% in Q3).were Foreign wereinnotably accounting 14.4% of all new property sales in Q3) less active for in VIC, where their share of total new(15.7% property sales and 8.6%level, intoestablished markets (9%less inestablished Q3). Activity At a national foreign buyers were prevalent inweakened Q4, it fell declined 16.4% from 25.2% in Q3. In markets, into most states, except where foreign buyers accounting for 14.4% of allaQLD, new property sales (15.7% in Q3) 8.6%, down from survey high 15% in Q3. Thereaccounted was less change forin20.9% ofbuyer new property Q3) and 8.9% of(13.6% in foreign activity insales NSW - 11.7% for new property and 8.6% in established markets (9%(17.7% in Q3).in Activity weakened established properties inforeign Q3). Foreign were around notably Q3) and 9.4% in established markets (9.7% inbuyers Q3). Overall, in most states, except QLD, (7.6% where buyers accounted less active inproperty VIC,purchases where their shareinofQ3) total new property sales 53% foreign of(17.7% Australian residential property were for 20.9% ofofnew sales and 8.9% of declined to 16.4%32% from 25.2% inForeign Q3. established markets, it fell for apartments, houses and 16%Infor redevelopment purposes. established properties (7.6% in Q3). buyers were notably these ratios continue to vary by state. In QLD, for example toBut 8.6%, down from a survey high 15% Q3. There wassales less change less active in VIC, where their share ofwidely totalinnew property accounted for 61% of- 11.7% all foreign purchases in Q4 (56% inapartments foreign buyer activity for new property declined to 16.4% from 25.2%in inNSW Q3. In established markets, it(13.6% fell in Q3) - by9.4% far the biggest share among (9.7% the main states. Q3) and in established markets in Q3). Overall, around

Foreign Buyers Foreign Buyers

to 8.6%, down from a survey high 15% in Q3. There was less change 53% of foreign purchases residential property were 商道 74 | HIGH ER activity VIEW BUSIN E Sof S -Australian in foreign buyer in NSW 11.7% for new property (13.6% in for apartments, 32% houses and 16% for redevelopment purposes. Q3) and 9.4% in established markets (9.7% in Q3). Overall, around But these ratios continue to vary widely by state. In QLD, for example

Property Index NAB’s Residential Property Index fell to +1 in Q4 (it was +10 in Q3) and is now well below its long-term average (+13). Demand Sentiment weakened in most states, especially NSW and QLD. VIC also softer, but strongest overall (replacing NSW) and Demand currentlyAustralian the onlyinvestors state stillwere tracking average. lessabove activeits in long-term the markets Demand for both new and established property. This was particularly apparent in established housing markets, Sentiment fell further in SA/NT in WA. Australian investors were and less remains active invery the weak markets where their share of total demand fell to a survey low Australian investors were less active in the markets for both new and established property. This was particularly apparent in established housing markets, where their share of total demand fell to a survey low 19.2%, from a survey high 25.2% in Q3 2014.

1. Residential Property - Market Performance

Residential property - Market performance Residential property - Market performance

HouseResidential price expectations expectations propertyRental - Market performance House House price price expectations expectations The average expectation for national house price growth The outlook for rents varies across states. Property

he heaverage average expectation for fornational national house price price growth growth next year yearwas wasscaled scaledback back again againininQ4 Q4and andisis now nowtipped tippedto to grow growjust just 0.5% 0.5%(from (from 1.5% Q3 Q3Survey). Survey). next expectation year was scaled backhouse again in Q4 andnext is now tipped professionals are forecasting higher returns next1.5% yearininin Expectations Expectations were werecut cutback backininall allstates statesbar barWA WA(which (whichisisstill stillnegative). negative).Capital Capitalgains gainstipped tippedto tobe bestrongest strongestininQLD QLD(1.9%) (1.9%)and andVIC VIC(0.7%). (0.7%).Outlook Outlook for forNSW NSW CULTURE 文化 to grow just 0.5% (1.5% in Q3 Survey). Expectations were NSW (1.8%) & VIC (1.7%), flat growth in SA/NT and more flat flatwith withprices pricesfalling fallingininSA/NT SA/NT(-0.6%) (-0.6%)and andWA WA(-0.5%). (-0.5%).National Nationalprices pricesto torise rise1% 1%inin22years’ years’time time(1.8% (1.8%ininQ3 Q3Survey), Survey),led ledby byQLD QLD(2.7%), (2.7%),VIC VIC(1%) (1%)and andWA WA cut back in all states bar(0.2%) WA (but still(0.2%). negative). Capital modest returns in QLD (0.6%). Rents are expected to (0.6%), (0.6%), with with smaller smaller gains gains ininNSW NSW (0.2%) &&SA/NT SA/NT (0.2%).

House price expectations gains expectation tipped to be strongest in QLD (1.9%)next & VIC continue falling employment and House price expectations he average for national house price growth year(0.7%). was scaled back again in Q4 andinisWA now (-0.4%) tipped toas grow just 0.5% (from 1.5% in Q3 Survey). Outlook for NSW flat with prices falling in SA/NT (-0.6%) population slows. NSW (2.6%) & VIC (2%) expected toin Q3 House House Price Price Expectations Expectations (%) (%) 12 12 months months forecast forecast Expectations were cut back in all states bar WA (which is still negative). Capital gains tipped to be strongest in QLD (1.9%) and VIC (0.7%). Outlook forSurvey). NSW he average expectation for national house price growth next year was scaled back again in Q4 and is now tipped to grow just 0.5% (from 1.5% House price expectations flat with prices falling in SA/NT (-0.6%) and (-0.5%). prices to rise 1% 2tipped years’ time in Q3in Survey), by QLD (2.7%), VIC (1%) and & WA (-0.5%). National prices toWA rise 1%TERTIARY in 2 years’ time remain the best yielding states inled 2 years’ with Expectations were cutOF back in all states bar WA (which isNational still negative). Capital gains to be strongest QLD (1.9%) and VICtime, (0.7%). Outlook for WA NSW DISTRIBUTION FOREIGN STUDENTS IN EDUCATION BYinCOUNTRY OF(1.8% DESTINATION %%

6.0 6.0

Next Next12 12months months

Next Next2 2years years

he average expectation price growth next wastoscaled back intime Q4 and is in now tipped toled grow just 0.5% (from 1.5% in Q3 Survey). (0.6%), with smaller gains innational NSW (0.2%) & SA/NT (0.2%). flat with prices in for SA/NT (-0.6%) and WA (-0.5%). National prices rise 1% in 2again years’ (1.8% Q3WA Survey), by QLD (2.7%), VIC (1%) and WA (1.8% in Q3 Survey), led byhouse QLD (2.7%), VIC (1%)year & WA growth also resuming in (1%). Expectations inSOURCE: QLD 5.0 5.0falling AUSTRADE 各国接受高等教育的海外学生比例 (20012-13) Expectations were cut back all states bar WA (which is still negative). Capital gains tipped to be strongest in QLD (1.9%) and VIC (0.7%). Outlook for NSW (0.6%), with smaller gains in in NSW (0.2%) & SA/NT (0.2%). (0.6%), with smaller gains in NSW (0.2%) & SA/NT (0.2%). have been scaled back, but remain positive (0.9%). 1.9% 1.9% 4.0 4.0falling in SA/NT (-0.6%) and WA (-0.5%). National prices to rise 1% in 2 years’ time (1.8% in Q3 NORTHERN NORTHERN flat with prices Survey), led by QLD (2.7%), VIC (1%) and WA -0.5% -0.5% 12 months % House Price Expectations (%) TERRITORY TERRITORY forecast (0.6%), with smaller gains in NSW (0.2%) & SA/NT (0.2%). 6.0 3.0 3.0 21.1% % House PricePrice Expectations (%) Next 12 months forecast QUEENSLAND QUEENSLAND Average Survey Rental Expectations (%) AverageNext Survey House Expectations (%)2 years 12 months 20.0% % %

0.0

1.0 0.0 2.0

Q2'14 Q2'14

VICTORIA VICTORIA

QUEENSLAND NORTHERN SOUTH TERRITORY AUSTRALIA 0.7% SOUTH 0.7% SOUTHQ4 QUEENSLAND AUSTRALIA NEW WALES 德国 -0.6% NEW SOUTH SOUTH WALES -0.6% AUSTRALIAVICTORIA

GERMANY

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

7.7% -1.0

1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9%

美国

NORTHERN NEW NEWSOUTH SOUTH TERRITORY WALES WALES NORTHERN -0.6% -0.6% TERRITORY QUEENSLAND

WESTERN AUSTRALIA -0.5% WESTERN AUSTRALIA

0.0

USA

SOUTH SOUTH 12AUSTRALIA months forecast Next 2 years AUSTRALIA

-0.5% 1.0

Q3'14 Q3'14

RUSSIA

-0.5%

2.0

WA WA

NSW NSW

SA/NT SA/NT

Vic Vic

Qld Qld

Q3'13 Q3'13

Australia Australia

1.0

WA WA

SA/NT SA/NT

Australia Australia

erformance NAB Residential Property Survey 10% 2.0 1.0 3.0

Next 12 months

Q4 2015 Next 2 years

Next 12 months

3.0 2.0 4.0

12.5%

Next 2 years House Price Expectations (%) Next 2 years

NSW NSW

4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 5.0

2.0

Vic Vic

15.0%

17.5%

WESTERN WESTERN AUSTRALIA AUSTRALIA

3.0

Next 12 months

Qld Qld

3.0

6.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 % 5.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 6.0

4.0

2015

VICTORIA

SA/NT

Qld

Australia

Victoria

NSW

VICTORIA

SA/NT

Qld

Australia

Victoria

NSW

WA WA

NSW NSW SA/NT

NSW

SA/NTSA/NT NSW

Australia

SA/NT

Australia WAAustralia

Vic Vic Vic

Qld

SA/NT

Australia

NSW

Vic

Qld

Australia

Rental Rental expectations expectations

Vic

AustraliaQld Qld

Qld

WA WA

SA/NTSA/NT

Australia Australia

NSW NSW

NSW

Qld

Vic

Qld Qld

Vic Vic

0.0% JAPAN 7.1% 0.0 俄罗斯 Rental expectations 7.5% 1.0 日本 -2.0 -1.0 CHINA 0.0% 5.9%NEW SOUTH growth The outlook for rents varies across states. Property FRANCE 中国 0.7%WALES AUSTRALIA 5.0% 0.0 5.0% Q3'13 Q2'14 Q3'14 1. Residential Property Market Performance -0.6% tipped professionals are forecasting higher returns next year in 法国 4.3% 澳大利亚 0.7% 0.0% Q3'13 Q2'14 Q3'14 ns were NSW (1.8%) & VIC across (1.7%), flat growth in SA/NT more 2.5% 2.5%and price expectations Rental expectations Q3'15 Q4'15 flat The TheHouse outlook outlook for forrents rents varies varies acrossstates. states. Property Property professionals professionals are areforecasting forecasting higher higherreturns returnsQ4'14 next nextyear yearininNSW NSW(1.8%) (1.8%)and andVIC VIC(1.7%), (1.7%), flatgrowth growthininSA/NT SA/NT Q4'14 Q3'15 Q4'15 apital and modest returns in (0.6%). Rents are expected to 0.7% and more more modest modest returns returns ininQLD QLD QLD (0.6%). (0.6%). Rents Rents are areexpected expected to tocontinue continue falling falling ininWA WAfor (-0.4%) (-0.4%) as asemployment employment and population population slows. slows.NSW NSW(2.6%) (2.6%)and andVIC VIC(2%) (2%) The average expectation for national house price growth The outlook rents varies acrossand states. Property Q3'13 Q2'14 Q3'14 0% expected to toResidential remain remain the thebest best yielding yielding states states in in22and years’ years’ time,with with growth growth also alsoresuming resumingare ininWA WA (1%). (1%).Expectations Expectations ininQLD QLDhave have been scaled back,but butremain remain 0.7%).expected continue falling in WA (-0.4%) as employment and next year was scaled back again in Q4 is time, now tipped professionals forecasting higher returns nextbeen yearscaled in back, NAB Property Index positive (0.9%). (0.9%). topopulation grow justResidential 0.5% (1.5% in Q3 Survey). Expectations were (1.8%) & third VIC (1.7%), flat growth SA/NT and more -0.6%)positive slows. NSW (2.6%) & VIC (2%) expected toNSW The NAB Property Index fell to +1 inSHARE Q4 (+10 in Q3) -SHARE its consecutive fall -indragged down by softer WORLD’S LARGEST ECONOMIES BY PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL OF NOMINAL GDP outlook rents varies across states. Property professionals are forecasting higher next year NSWare (1.8%) and VIC to (1.7%), growth in SA/NT back for inthe all states bar WAprice (but still Capitalwith modest in QLDbelow (0.6%). Rents expected ’ time Thecut remain best yielding states innegative). 2 years’ time, expectations for house growth. The overall index is nowreturns sittingreturns well itsin long-term average (+13flat points) 根据名义国内生产总值比率的世界最大经济体 (6/2014) SOURCE: AUSTRADE moretipped modest returns in across QLD (0.6%). Rents are expected to continue falling inhigher WA (-0.4%) asnext employment and(1.8%) population slows. NSW (2.6%) andinVIC (2%) Thegains outlook foralso rents varies Property professionals are forecasting returns year in andand VIC (1.7%), flat growth SA/NT to be in QLD (1.9%) & VIC (0.7%). continue falling in WA (-0.4%) asNSW employment WA and growth resuming instates. WA (1%). Expectations in QLD and has fallen tostrongest its lowest level since mid-2012. Market sentiment weakened in most states, especially in NSW 12 12months months forecast forecast expected remain theflat best yielding states in 2are years’ with growth also resuming in WA (1%). Expectations in QLD have slows. been scaled back, but %% Rental Rental Expectations Expectations (%) (%)time,(-0.6%) and moreto modest returns inwith QLDprices (0.6%). Rents expected to continue falling in WA (-0.4%) as employment and(2%) population NSW (2.6%) andremain VIC (2%) Outlook for NSW falling in SA/NT population slows. NSW (2.6%) & VIC expected to (down 32 +10) and QLD (down 20positive to +7). Sentiment also softened in VIC (down 8 to +23), but is now strongest (0.2%).positive have been scaled back, butstates remain (0.9%). 5.0 5.0 to (0.9%). expected to remain thevaries best yielding in1% 2 years’ time, with growth also resuming inyielding WA (1%). Expectations in (1.8%) QLD have been scaled back, but remain The for rents states. Property are forecasting returns next yearinin2NSW and VIC (1.7%), flat growth & outlook WA National prices to is rise in 2professionals years’ time remain thehigher best states years’ time, with Next Nextacross 12 12months months Next Next 2 2years years 22.5% (-0.5%). overall (replacing NSW). VIC also the only state tracking above its long-term average (+15). Sentiment fell further in in SA/NT 22.8% 4.0 4.0 positive (0.9%). and more returnsled in QLD (0.6%). Rents VIC are expected to continue fallingalso in WA (-0.4%) as employment and population slows. NSW (2.6%) and VIC (2%) (1.8% inmodest Q3 Survey), by QLD (2.7%), (1%) & WA growth resuming in WA (1%). Expectations in QLD Average Survey Rental Expectations (%) % SA/NT to -31 the and remains very weak in WA (-59). Residential Property Index is expected to have rise to +29 nextback, but remain 3.0 3.0 0.6% 0.6% expected towith remain yielding states in 2 years’ time, withNAB’s growth also resuming WA (1%). Expectations in QLD been scaled 20.0% (0.6%), smaller gains in NSW (0.2%) & SA/NT (0.2%). have been scaledinback, but positive (0.9%). NORTHERN USA best -0.4%remain 3.0 12 NORTHERN months forecast year, with property professionals in QLD The index is expected to climb to +37 in % Rental Expectations (%) the most optimistic in the country. -0.4% TERRITORY TERRITORY positive (0.9%). 2.0 2.0 美国 Next 12 months Next 2 years 12 months forecast 217.5% years’1.05.0 &Price QLD leading(%) and WA2 the big improver. QUEENSLAND QUEENSLAND %time, with NSW Rental Expectations Average Survey Rental Expectations (%) Expectations (%) Next Next House 12 months years % 2.0 % 1.0Average Survey

Rental expectations Rental expectations Rental expectations

NAB NAB Residential Residential Property Property Index Index

1.8%AUSTRALIA 1.8% 澳大利亚

2.9% NEW SOUTH 1.7% 1.9% 1.8% Q4 Q42015 2015 VICTORIA

SA/NT

Qld

SA/NT

Qld

Australia

NSW

Q4'14

Q4'15Australia

Qld

Q3'14

-60

0.6%

BRAZIL

NSW

SA/NT

Australia Australia

Qld

Qld Qld

Q3'14

3.7%

1.8% 1.8%

QUEENSLAND SOUTH NORTHERN AUSTRALIA TERRITORY SOUTH AUSTRALIA NEW SOUTH WALES QUEENSLAND 0.0% NEW SOUTH 巴西WALES VICTORIA 0.0% SOUTH AUSTRALIA

1.7% 1.7%

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

5.0%

0.6%

VICTORIA VICTORIA

英国

-20 -40

NEW NEWSOUTH SOUTH WALES WALES TERRITORY QUEENSLAND TERRITORY

德国 0

-2.0

NORTHERN 0.0% 0.0%

WESTERN AUSTRALIA WESTERN -0.4% AUSTRALIA

-1.0

-0.4%

GERMANY

NORTHERN

Australia

0.0

Victoria

Australia Australia

Qld Qld

-0.4%

Victoria

1.0

Q3'14 Q3'14

SA/NT

Victoria Victoria WA

SA/NT

NSW

Q4'15

Q1'15 Victoria

SA/NTSA/NT Australia

NSW NSW Victoria

NSW

Vic

Qld WA WA

日本

6.3%

Q2'14 Q2'14

Q3'15

Victoria Victoria

SA/NT SA/NT

NSW NSW

WA WA

Australia Australia

Qld Qld

SA/NT SA/NT

Vic

NSW

Australia AustraliaWA

Australia Vic Q3'13

Q4'14

Q3'15

-10

Q4'14 Q3'13

Australia

-2.0

SA/NT SA/NT Qld Qld

0 2.5%

JAPAN

SOUTH SOUTH

Next 2 years AUSTRALIA AUSTRALIA NAB Residential12Property Index by State 0.6% months forecast

Next 12 months

Next 2 years

Q2'14 Q2'14

Qld

-1.0

NSW Vic

Qld

Vic

-1.0

Victoria

-2.0 0.0

Australia NSW NSW

5.0% 10

中国

Q3'13 Q3'13

-1.0 1.0 -2.0 average

NSW

SA/NT

NSW

7.5%

20 0.0 -2.0

CHINA

Australia

0.0 2.0 -1.0

WA SA/NT SA/NTQld

3.0 1.0 0.0

SA/NT

10% -1.0

1.0 30

NSW NSW

2.0 40

Vic Vic

13.1%

12.5% 0.0

Index

2.0

NSW

15.0% 1.0 Index

3.0

WESTERN WESTERN AUSTRALIA AUSTRALIA

3.0

Next 2 years

5.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 Next 12 monthsNext 12 months Next 2 years 4.0 3.0 NAB Residential Index % Rental Property Expectations (%) -1.0 -1.0 5.0 3.0 2.0 Next 12 months -2.0 -2.0 4.0 2.0 1.0

4.0

0.0% 1.7%WALES

Q3'15

Q4'15

VICTORIA

-80 Q3'15

Q4'15

Next Qtr

Next 12 months

Next 2 years

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fell furtheroverall in$73.8 SA/NT to -31 and remains in by WA (-59). NAB’s Residential Index is(+15). expected to rise softer for house price growth. The overall index is now sitting wellProperty belowaverage its long-term average bn AUSTRALIA strongest (replacing NSW). VIC isvery alsoweak the only state tracking above its Sentiment NAB Residential Property Index State 60 60 Indexexpectations NORTHERN 80 80 long-term -59pts NAB Residential Property Index NAB Residential Property Index by StateAUSTRALIA Index 100Index SOUTH 8pts 8pts TERRITORY to next year, with property professionals in QLD the most optimistic in the country. The index is expected (+13 points) and has fallen to its lowest level since mid-2012. Market sentiment weakened in most states, especially fell further in SA/NT to -31 and remains very weak in WA (-59). NAB’s Residential Property Index is expected toto rise 50 50+29 60 AUSTRALIA NEW SOUTH 50 60 60 60 $76.1 bn WALES $70.8 bnalso climb to +37year, in 2 time, NSW and20QLD leading and WA thesoftened bigin improver. in NSW (down 32years’ to +10) andwith QLD (down toQLD +7). Sentiment in VIC (down 8 to +23), but is now QUEENSLAND 40 40+29 to next with property professionals in the most optimistic the country. The index is expected to -31pts 20pts NEW SOUTH 40 40 80 WESTERN 40 WALES 32pts 40 40 30 30 strongest overall (replacing NSW). VIC is also the only state tracking above its long-term average (+15). Sentiment VICTORIA AUSTRALIA -31pts climb to +37 in 2 years’ time, with NSW and QLD leading and WA the$55.1 big improver. 20 20 bn $54.7 bnNAB Residential SOUTH NABtoResidential Property Index 32pts Index 20 20 further in SA/NT Index Property Index fell -31 and remains very weak in WA (-59). NAB’s Residential Property Index is expected to rise 20 0 0 AUSTRALIA VICTORIA 30 20 60 60 80 10 10 NAB Residential Property Index in QLD the most optimistic in Index Index to +29 next year, with property professionals the country. The index is expected to NAB Residential Property Index 8pts $37.3 bn NEW SOUTH -20 0 -20 050 0 20 0 60 $32.1bn $31.2 bn -31pts$27.1 60 80 bnWALES climb to +37 in 2 years’ time, with NSW and QLD leading and WA the big improver. average 40 8pts -40 -40 40 -10 -10 Next 2 years Next 2 years

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50 30 10 -20 -20 -20 40 NAB Residential Property Index Index 20 20 -30 -30 30 0 -40 60 10 -40 -40 20 50 0 -50 -50 10 -10AUS$ -60 BN 40 Queensland Queensland Victoria Victoria NSW NSW SA/NT SA/NT Australia Australia WA WA -10 0 30 -20 -20 -80 -10 Q3'13 Q3'13 Q2'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q3'14 中国日本 20 Q3'15 Q4'15 Next 12 months Next Qtr -30 -20 10 -40 -30 Australia Victoria NSW Qld SA/NT 0 -50 -40 Victoria NSW SA/NT Australia WA -10 Queensland -50 -20 Queensland Victoria NSW Q2'14 SA/NT Australia Q3'14 WA Q3'13 -30

CHINA

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4 (+10 inNAB Q3) Residential - its third consecutive fall - dragged down by softer Property Index 1.7% Q3'13 Q2'14EXPORTS & IMPORTS BY-COUNTRY SHARE OF AUSTRALIA’S OF GOODS & SERVICES Australia Victoria Qldby softer SA/NT WA The NAB Residential Property Index fell to +1 in +10 Q4 (+10 inQ3'14 Q3) - itsconsecutive third consecutive fall -down dragged ndex is now sitting well below its long-term average (+13 points) The TheNAB NABResidential ResidentialProperty PropertyIndex Indexfell fell to to+1 +1 ininQ4 Q4(from (from +10 in inQ3)—its Q3)—its third third consecutive fall—dragged fall—dragged downNSW by by down SOURCE: AUSTRADE 按留学地点定出的高等教育海外留学生分布 expectations for price growth. The overall index is now sitting well its below its long-term softer expectations expectations for forhouse house house price growth. growth. The The overall overall index index now now sitting sitting well wellbelow below itslong-term long-term average average average (+13 points) Marketsofter sentiment weakened inprice most states, especially inisisNSW NORTHERN NORTHERN -59pts -59pts Q4 2015 TERRITORY (+13 (+13 points) points) andin has has fallen fallen to toits itslowest lowest level levelsince since mid-2012. Market Market sentiment sentimentweakened weakenedinin most most states, states, especially especially and has and fallen to its(down lowest level since mid-2012. sentiment weakened in most states, especially in NSW TERRITORY ment also softened VIC 8 to +23), but ismid-2012. nowMarket strongest Q4 2015 ininNSW NSW (down (down 32 32+10) to to+10) +10) and and QLD QLD(down (down (down20 20to to+7). +7). Sentiment Sentiment also also softened softened ininVIC VIC (down (down 88to to+23), +23), but but isisnow now QUEENSLAND QUEENSLAND 20pts (down 32 to and QLD 20 to +7). Sentiment also softened in VIC (down 8 to +23), but is now strongest 2008 2014 20pts WESTERN WESTERN tracking aboveoverall its long-term average Sentiment fell further in bn is(+15). $150.9 strongest strongest overall (replacing (replacing NSW). NSW). VIC VIC is also also the the only only state state tracking tracking above above its its long-term long-term average average (+15). (+15). Sentiment Sentiment AUSTRALIA AUSTRALIA The NAB Property Index fell to +1 inonly Q4 (from +10 in Q3)—its third consecutive fall—dragged down by overall (replacing NSW). VIC is also the state tracking above its long-term average (+15). Sentiment fell further in 160 Residential SOUTH SOUTH NAB’s fell Residential Property Index is expected toinin rise to +29 next fell further further ininSA/NT SA/NTto to-31 -31 and andprice remains remains very veryweak weak WA WAindex (-59). (-59). NAB’s NAB’s Residential Residential Property Property Index isisexpected to torise rise AUSTRALIA AUSTRALIA softer expectations for house growth. overall is sitting well below itsIndex long-term average SA/NT to -31 and remains very weak in (-59). NAB’s Residential Property Index is expected expected to The NAB Residential Property Index fell to +1The inWA Q4 (from +10 in now Q3)—its third consecutive fall—dragged down byrise to +29 Q4 2015 -59ptsnext NORTHERN to to +29 +29 next next year, year, with withfallen property property professionals professionals in inQLD QLD the themost mostMarket optimistic optimistic in inthe thecountry. country. The The index index isis expected expected to to optimistic in the country. The index is expected to climb to +37 in NEW NEWSOUTH SOUTH TERRITORY 140 (+13 points) and has to its lowest level since mid-2012. sentiment weakened in most states, especially softer expectations for house price growth. The overall index is now sitting wellcountry. below itsThe long-term average year, with property professionals in QLD the most optimistic in the index is expected to climb to +37 in WALES WALES NORTHERN -59pts climb climb to to +37 +37 in in 2 2 years’ years’ time, time, with with NSW NSW and and QLD QLD leading leading and and WA WA the the big big improver. improver. -31pts -31pts e big improver. in NSW (down 32 to +10) and QLD (down 20 to +7). Sentiment also softened in VIC (down 8 to +23), but is now TERRITORY QUEENSLAND 20pts (+13 points) and has fallen to its lowest level since mid-2012. Market sentiment weakened in most states, especially 32pts 32pts 2 years’ time, with NSW & QLD leading and WA the big improver. WESTERN 120 Residential strongest overall (replacing NSW). VIC isIndex also the only state+10 tracking abovethird itsinlong-term (+15). The NAB Property Index fell to in+7). Q4 (from in Q3)—its consecutive fall—dragged down by AUSTRALIA in NSW (down 32NAB to +10) and QLD (down 20+1 to Sentiment also softened VIC (downaverage 8 NAB to +23), butSentiment is Property now QUEENSLAND 20pts NAB Residential Residential Property Property Index Index Index SOUTH Index Index NAB Residential Residential PropertyIndex Index WESTERN -20

32pts

TECHNOLOGY

科技

By Ben Hurley, Editor of Higher View Business

优步悠着行

作者：白杰明《商道》编辑

UBER INTENSE

Consumers stand to be the real winners in an increasingly fierce battle between global ride-sharing app Uber and China-dominant competitor Didi Chuxing. Didi has funded local competitors to Uber around the world and brought its competition to Uber’s home shores in San Francisco. Now local Australian competitor GoCar has thrown its hat into the ring. 在全球拼车应用“优步”及其中国竞争对手“滴滴出行”之间日益白热化的竞争之中，消费者成为真正的大赢家。滴滴已先后开始投资于优步在全球各地的竞争对手，从而将战线扩大至优步位于旧金山的大本营。如今，优步在澳大利亚的竞争对手GoCar亦宣布加入战斗。

76 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

商道

TECHNOLOGY

科技

ber has never been one to shy away from a fight. Since it was founded in 2009 the company has sparred with regulators and the entrenched taxi industry to establish its turf in modern transport infrastructure. But a bloodier fight is now emerging with local upstarts around the world who are in some cases banding together across international borders. The competition is particularly heated in China where Didi Chuxing, backed by Chinese internet behemoths Alibaba and Tencent, has captured more than 90% of the market and is matching Uber’s firepower in driver subsidies to gain a foothold in key Chinese cities. Uber, too, is pumping money into the China market to gain an early foothold. Boasting billions in venture capital it is reportedly paying drivers bonuses up to three times the amount of its fares and has admitted recently it is losing $1 billion a year in China. One Uber driver in China, Jacky, told the New York Times last year that Uber paid the most lucrative driver bonuses of all the ride-hailing services. He made the equivalent of about $1000 in the first three weeks of May on top of his salary at another job, with the majority of his earnings as a driver coming from subsidies. But Didi, which has made no secret of its global ambitions, has upped the pressure by bringing the fight to Uber’s home shores. Its rich backers Alibaba and Tencent have funded competing San Francisco-based car hailing company Lyft to the tune of $150 million. They have also funded other key Uber competitors including GrabCar in Southeast Asia and Ola in India.

Uber is pumping money into the China market.

优

1000% Uber recorded a 1000% increase in rides hailed overseas by mainland Chinese during the Lunar New Year. 在农历新年期间，大陆中国人在境外使用优步的数量增长了1000% 。

TAKING THE FIGHT UP IN AUSTRALIA

Didi Chuxing’s funding forays have not escaped the notice of GoCar, a new ride-sharing play by Australian company GoCatch which poses a direct challenge to Uber in Australia. GoCar was launched in response to NSW government reforms at the end of 2015 that recognised ride-sharing services like Uber as legal. GoCar is now taking bookings in Sydney and plans to roll out nationally as the regulatory environment changes. Its backers include James Packer, the billionaire Liberman family, Paul Bassat and Malcolm Turnbull’s son Alex Turnbull. It employs 34 staff in Australia and the Philippines and around 35,000 taxi drivers use its platform. Some will come across to ride-sharing, the company says. Now it is about to launch a new funding round to extend its reach, accelerate its growth around Australia and get some “strategic investors” on board, Co-founder and CEO Ned Moorfield tells Higher View Business. “We need a good round of funding to roll out nationally,” Moorfield says. “Ride-sharing is much more operationally intensive [than taxi hailing].” Moorfield makes it clear he has no international expansion plans and doesn’t want to compete with local players that are taking on Uber around the world. “I’m a big believer that there are local players in various markets around the region that know their markets a lot better than us,” Moorfield 商道

步从来就不怕麻烦，与人拼抢。为在现代化的运输格局中谋求自己的立足之地，自2009年创立以来，优步就一直在与监管部门以及受到威胁的出租车行业斗得难分难舍，但是，优步当前正面临着与全球本土新贵之间的一场更为惨烈的对决，而其中一些竞争对手更已组成了跨境联盟来对抗优步。优步在中国所面临的竞争更为白热化。由中国互联网巨头阿里巴巴和腾讯联手打造的滴滴出行已斩获逾90%的市场份额，并正在和优步一样竞相补贴司机以便在中国主要城市内谋取一席之地。优步同样也在源源不断向中国市场注入资金以期占取先机。坐拥数十亿风险资本的优步据称向司机提供三倍于车费的补贴，近日更承认短短一年内就在中国烧掉了10亿美元。一位名为Jacky的中国优步司机去年向《纽约时报》透露：优步是所有叫车服务商中补贴最丰厚的一个。他在五月份前三周就赚到了大约1000美元，远高于他另一份工作的收入，而其中大部分收入都来自于对司机提供的补贴。但全球化野心昭然若揭的滴滴亦通过将战线扩大至优步大本营的方式向优步施压。滴滴背后富甲一方的大东家——阿里巴巴和腾讯——已经向优步在旧金山的竞争对手Lyft投资了1.5亿美元。它们亦向优步的其它主要竞争对手抛出了橄榄枝，包括东南亚的GrabCar以及印度的Ola。战火烧到澳大利亚滴滴出行四处砸线的行径并没有逃过GoCar 的眼睛；GoCar是澳大利亚公司GoCatch新推出的一款拼车应用，而GoCatch亦是优步在澳大利亚的直接竞争对手。在2015年底新南威尔士州政府正式承认优步之类的拼车服务合法之后，GoCar应运而生。 GoCar如今仅接受悉尼市区的打车订单；而随着监管环境发生变化，GoCar亦有计划进军全国。其投资者包括James Packer、Liberman家族、Paul Bassat以及总理Malcolm Turnbull的儿子Alex。GoCar在澳大利亚以及菲律宾共聘请了34位员工；约有 35,000位出租车司机使用这个平台。该公司表示某些出租车司机最后会转战拼车服务。共同创始人兼首席执行官奈德·莫菲尔德向《商道》表示：当前该公司即将启动新一轮的融资，以便落实并加快其在澳大利亚境内的增长目标，并招募一些“战略投资者”。莫菲尔德提到：“我们需要新一轮的融资以便在全国推出这项服务。与‘叫车’相比，拼车更倾向于是一项运营密集型的服务。” 莫菲尔德明确表示其没有任何的国际扩张计划，并且无意再从优步所迎战的全球各大竞争对象手中分一杯羹。 H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 77

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billion

Uber’s approximate valuation after raising another $1billion of capital. 优步在完成新一轮10亿美元募资之后的估值。

莫菲尔德表示：“我深信亚太地区各国市场上活跃着不同的本土服务商，而它们对于本土市场的了解要远胜于我们。滴滴出行已经直接对Lyft进行投资，并且我们也看到了滴滴与印度Ola以及东南亚Grab之间进行的交叉投资。因此同业间颇有些合作。我们并不太想去抗衡它们。” 这个冉冉崛起的海外联盟是否有意投资于 GoCar呢？莫菲尔德表示：“一切交给时间来决定。我们甚至还没启动新一轮融资呢。”

“Didi Chuxing has invested money directly in Lyft, and we’re seeing some cross investment with Ola in India and Grab in SE Asia.” says. “Didi Chuxing have invested money directly in Lyft, and we’re seeing some cross investment with Ola in India and Grab in South-East Asia. So there has been some cooperation. We are not so much into competing against them.” Has there been any talk of overseas funding from this rising alliance coming to GoCar? “Time will tell on that,” Moorfield says. “We haven’t even commenced our funding round yet.” 78 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

GOCAR’S ATTACK ON UBER

The abundance of local players around the world competing strongly against Uber shows there is room for an Uber competitor in Australia, Moorfield says. It’s not going to be easy taking on a $70 billion giant fat with venture capital, he acknowledges, but he highlights several areas where competitors can differentiate themselves. Uber’s controversial surge-pricing, which reportedly has seen some commuters hit with fares over $1000 for trips on key nights like 商道

GoCar对优步发起进攻莫菲尔德提到：优步所到之处都遭遇了本土服务商的强烈对抗，这也为我们在澳大利亚狙击优步留下了空间。他承认向这个拥有700亿风险资本的巨鳄宣战绝非易事，但他亦强调了优步竞争对手可以胜出的几大领域。优步极富争议的“加成计费”机制据称导致某些乘客在诸如新年前夜之类的关键时段出行之时车费飙升到1000美元以上；而这个机制将成为GoCar的狙击目标。莫菲尔德称这种机制属于“价格欺诈”，并且绝对不会出现在 GoCar之上；相反，GoCar将提供固定的峰时以及非峰时定价。莫菲尔德指出：“大家都痛恨‘加成计费’，因此这将是我们最大的一个胜算。” 优步向司机收取占其收入20%的佣金，而 GoCar将该比例下调至15%。他同时亦将矛头指向了优步的“傲慢文化”——优步向澳大利亚税务局发起了一项诉讼，因为后者向优步征收“商品和服务税（GST）”。并且他曾警告优步不要像在中国一样利用补贴来吸引澳大利亚的司机。莫菲尔德指出：“如果优步开始向司机提供补贴，则优步极可能会触犯一些反竞争法规。但我怀疑他们已经深入研究了澳大利亚严格的竞争法规。” 他表示在某些时候GoCar可能会比优步更贵，但综合来讲GoCar更便宜。

TECHNOLOGY

科技

New Years’ Eve, is firmly in GoCar’s sights. Moorfield has labelled it “price gouging” and promised not to use it at GoCar, instead offering fixed on-peak and off-peak rates. “We hate surge pricing, we think that will be a big differentiator for us,” Moorfield says. GoCar is taking a lower driver commission at 15% of earnings instead of Uber’s 20%. He has also taken aim at what he sees as Uber’s “arrogant culture”, pointing to Uber’s court action against the Australian Tax Office over its demand that Uber collect GST (Goods and Services Tax). And he has warned Uber against using subsidies in Australia to attract drivers like it has done in China. “There is potential for Uber to engage in very anti-competitive behaviour if it starts throwing subsidies at drivers,” Moorfield says. “But I suspect they are fairly well informed on strong competition laws in Australia.” Moving into ride sharing, which uses unmarked cars and competes against taxis, has not won him any friends in the taxi industry, Moorfield says. “But ride sharing is great for drivers,” he says. “It’s flexible hours, you can jump into your own car and you don’t have to travel to a base and pick up a dirty taxi that you then drive for 12 hours, and spend first three hours trying to recover money you paid for the vehicle. We think the majority of taxi drivers recognise that, and a lot of ride sharing drivers are current or ex-taxi drivers.” Uber general manager for Australia and New Zealand David Rohrsheim tells Higher View Business: “It was certainly the NSW government’s intention to open up the point-to-point transport market for more competition, and consumers will be the winners.”

35,000 The number of taxi drivers using GoCatch. 使用GoCatch的出租车司机数量。

He also says ridesharing is growing the overall number of trips in the point-to-point market, so it is not a zero-sum game. “Deloitte research concluded 61% of UberX trips are new,” Rohrsheim says. “So the story here isn’t so much about competition as it is about growing the market, which is ultimately about challenging car ownership.”

CONSUMERS THE WINNERS

Where the battle goes from here remains to be seen, but if a price war erupts consumers stand to benefit a lot. Uber’s fares in China are on average at least 35% cheaper than taxis, the cars are generally more luxurious and they offer free water. And despite being the underdog in China, Uber is in a strong position. Its partner Baidu, which owns a stake in Uber, recently hit 300 million active monthly users on its Baidu Maps app, which promises to send business Uber’s way through an in-built car-hailing feature. It operates in 395 cities worldwide and plans to enter 100 more Chinese cities over the next year. It has raised more than $10 billion in funding from the likes of Goldman Sachs, TPG and Fidelity. Uber said in February it recorded a 1000% increase in rides hailed overseas by mainland Chinese users during the Lunar New Year break. Didi Chuxing in October beat Uber to become the first car-hailing app in Shanghai to win legal recognition, by being licensed under the Shanghai Municipal Transport Commission. Didi aspires to become the “world’s largest one-stop mobile transportation forum” as it expands into other services including premium car-hailing, carpooling and bus sharing. Didi came about after a merger in February last year between China’s two largest taxihailing firms - Kuaidi Dache and Didi Dache - leading to a combined equity valued at around $US6 billion at the time. Still, there are many cities in the world including Australia and China where ridesharing is either in a grey regulatory area or outright illegal. The ultimate regulatory environment is far from certain. And with the rise of Didi Chuxing, Uber’s global supremacy is also less certain than it used to be. 商道

莫菲尔德亦表示进军拼车领域——即使用无任何标记的车辆并与出租车进行竞争——导致他从未交到过出租车行业的任何朋友。 “但是拼车很受司机欢迎，因为它在时间上十分灵活。您可以直接开自己的车，而无需先开车到一个出租车基地去接手一辆脏兮兮的出租车并争取到12小时的使用时间，并且在前三个小时内还要努力把份子钱赚出来。我们认为绝大部分司机都意识到了这一点，并且许多拼车服务司机的上一份工作正是出租车司机。” 优步并没有回应《商道》要其置评的要求，但优步的澳大利亚和新西兰总经理David Rohrsheim向news.com.au表示：“作为首家向澳大利亚引进拼车概念的公司，我们深感自豪。消费者如今可以拥有甚于以往的更多出行选择。” 消费者才是大赢家虽然战火烧向何处尚待分晓，但如果爆发价格战的话，消费者无疑将是最大的赢家。优步在中国的车费平均要比出租车低35%，而且车辆通常更为豪华，更有免费矿泉水提供。尽管在中国尚属后进，但优步已锋芒渐露。优步合作方百度亦是优步的投资人，其旗下“ 百度地图”应用的每月活跃用户数量达到3亿之多；百度已承诺通过在百度地图中内置叫车功能的方式来助力优步。优步的业务遍及全球395个城市，并计划明年进军100多个中国城市。优步已从高盛、德州太平洋集团以及富达等巨头手中募得逾100 亿美元。《纽约时报》2015年6月援引一位内部人士的说法报道称：2014年12月期间，优步每天在中国完成10万多份订单，接近其每天所完成的全球100万份订单的10%。优步于2月份表示：在农历新年期间，大陆中国人在境外使用优步叫车的数量增长了 1000%。优步的劲敌滴滴出行于十月份击败优步成为上海地区首款获得法律承认的叫车应用，拿到了上海市交通委员会授予的牌照。滴滴立志成为“全球最大的移动出行服务平台”，并正在进军其它服务领域，包括专车、拼车以及巴士服务等等。去年二月份中国两大叫车公司——快的打车和滴滴打车——兼并之后造就了当时估值约60 亿美元的滴滴出行。不过，在全球许多城市（包括澳大利亚和中国在内），拼车仍处于灰色监管地带，或者完全被视为违法行为。最终的监管环境远未尘埃落定。滴滴出行的崛起显然令优步的全球霸权之路蒙上了一层阴影。 H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 79

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消费者

By Jeremy Oliver, Wine writer, critic and presenter

独步华夏的葡萄酒

作者：杰里米·奥利弗，葡萄酒作家、评论家及主持人

WHAT A CORKER!

It’s no vacation romance. China is indeed falling in love with wine. This affair might look and feel a little different to the way it does in other countries, but that’s only to be expected. As ever, China is doing it its own way. In 2015 its people enjoyed a whopping 4.45 billion litres of wine. 这绝对不仅是假日里的一段浪漫史。中国人实际上已拜倒在葡萄酒的石榴裙下。中国人表达这种爱慕的方式或许与其它国家不尽相同，这自然也在情理之中。和以往一样，中国人喜欢特立独行。2015年期间，中国人喝掉了整整44.5亿升的葡萄洒。

rom driving the price of red Bordeaux into stratospheric levels to the creation of Disneyland-like chateaux of more pomp than Versailles; from the raw thirst for knowledge of the younger wine generation to the emergence of some stunning Chinese-made wine, China is reinventing wine culture to suit its own pace and scale. As it was always going to do. Since 2013 Chinese people have drunk more red wine than the French or the Italians. In the six years prior to this red wine consumption in China almost tripled. At the same time it went backwards in France by 18%. Amazingly, wine made from grapes accounts for less than 4% of the alcohol consumed in China, against a global figure of 18%. On a per capita basis, Chinese drink very little – around a fifth of the global average. These numbers will all increase, which is why Professor Kym Anderson, Executive Director of the Wine Economics Research Centre, reckons China’s net imports of wine could rise by between 330 and 790 million litres by 2018. Obvious, isn’t it, why every major wine-producing nation is fighting for a slice of this pie.

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AN UNEXPECTED TRADITION

Historically, there is evidence of viticulture and winemaking in China dating as far back as 4600 years ago. However, the Han Dynasty (around 206 BC) gets the credit for re-introducing wine grapes to China, probably around present-day Xinjiang or Gansu. The locals probably learned how from the Persians. There is also a legend of a general, Zhang Qian, who in 128 BC planted grape seeds near the emperor’s palace near Chang’an (now Xi’an). China’s modern wine industry dates back to 1892, with the establishment of the Chanyu Winery in Shandong. It was founded by an ethnic Chinese from Indonesia called Zhang

10%

China owns more than 10% of the world's vineyards, second only to Spain. 中国拥有超过10％世界葡萄园，仅次于西班牙。

商道

从

将波尔多红酒的价格推高至令人咋舌的价位，到建造与比凡尔赛宫还要瑰美华丽、宛如迪斯尼乐园般的城堡；从更年轻一代葡萄酒人对知识的渴求，到中国佳酿葡萄酒的横空出世……中国人正在按照自己的节奏和尺度来重新定义葡萄酒文化，一如既往！自2013年以来，中国人消费的红葡萄酒数量已超过法国人和意大利人。而在此前的六年间，中国的红葡萄酒消费就已经整整翻了三倍。与此同时，法国的红葡萄酒消费量下滑了18%。令人惊讶的是，葡萄酒消费量仅占到中国酒类消费总量的4%还不到，而在全球范围内葡萄酒消费量的平均比重则高达18%。从人均水平来看，中国人所饮不多，仅在全球范围内排名第五位。所有这些数字均将迎来增长，这也是为什么葡萄酒经济研究中心执行董事Kym Anderson教授预测称中国的葡萄酒净进口量将在2018年之时增长3.3-7.9亿升。显而易见，这也是为何中国是每个主要葡萄酒生产国的兵家必争之地。

你所未知的酿酒传统从历史上来看，中国的葡萄种植以及葡萄酒酿造史最早可以追溯到4600多年以前。不过，一直到汉朝（公元前206年）中国才将酿酒用的葡萄重新引进国内种植——大约位于今天的新疆或甘肃附近。当地人可能从波斯人手中学会了

CONSUMER

消费者

Bishi who employed the Austrian consul as his winemaker. Close to a century later, the Great Wall company was established (in 1979), and a year after that China began its engagement with the rest of the world with the Dynasty venture near Tianjin, initially involving Remy Martin. From this time onwards, China has been open to large-scale plantings of European varieties, which have steadily replaced the large number of local hybrids and varieties previously used for winemaking. More than a hundred new wineries opened between 1996 and 2004. Since then, growth has been astronomic. Today China is the world’s fifth largest producer of (grape) wine, yet still its domestic production has not been able to keep pace with growth in consumption.

OUT OF CHAOS A MARKET TAKES SHAPE

In its formative years the French, who were quick to appreciate the importance of face in Chinese culture, shaped the Chinese wine market. Their message was simple, tried and tested, and effective. If Chinese people want to show they are treating their guests to the best and most prestigious wine, they should be doing it with red wine from Bordeaux, the largest and most important quality wine region in France. No other explanation was required. The result? An unprecedented growth in Bordeaux prices, especially for the first growths, especially Chateau Lafite. Perhaps because it’s easier for Chinese people to pronounce than its neighbours like Chateau Mouton-Rothschild, but Lafite began a journey that has seen it become the most sought-after brand in a country of nearly 1.4 billion people that is obsessed by brands. It could do no wrong; its 2008 vintage even featured the Chinese symbol for the figure eight. Hong Kong was already steaming ahead as a wine market by 2008 when its then Chief Secretary, Henry Tang, removed duty on wine sales there. Overnight, this decision made Hong Kong the epicentre of the wine world. It also encouraged an even greater number of Chinese visitors to Hong Kong for the purpose of buying wine, driven by lower prices and the greater likelihood of the wine being real and not fake. What could go wrong?

In 2010 Penfolds launched the most expensive wine it had ever made. Its 2008 Bin 620 Cabernet Sauvignon Shiraz from was released in November for A$1,000.00 per bottle, 1.5 times the price of Grange. Instead of launching this wine in Sydney, Melbourne, London or even New York, Penfolds chose Shanghai and then Hong Kong. A Chinese gentleman approached its CEO, asking if he could buy the entire production of the wine, at twice the price per bottle! What could possibly go wrong? Firstly, the Chinese economy slowed, then

相关技术。据传在公元前128年，张骞就在长安（如今的西安）皇宫附近播下了葡萄种子。中国的现代葡萄酿酒工业可以追溯到1892年；是年，印尼华侨张弼士在山东创办了张裕酿酒公司，并聘请奥地利领事担纲酿酒技师。在近一个世纪之后，长城葡萄酒公司诞生（1979年）；一年之后，随着中法合营的王朝葡萄酿酒有限公司在天津附近落户（最早的合资方是人头马），中国的葡萄酒开始走向全球。自此起，中国开始了欧洲葡萄品种的大规模种植，并用这些品种逐步取代了先前用于酿酒的各种本土杂交品种。1996年至2004年期间，逾一百家酿酒新秀先后成立。

Fake wines Brand is king in China, but the king you buy could well turn out to be a pawn in disguise. Wine has been faked for several decades in this market and fake wine today in China is harder to detect than ever before. While the first attempts I saw of counterfeit wine would not have fooled a Western wine enthusiast, they were certainly good enough to penetrate the defences of the Chinese buyer of ten to fifteen years ago. The Western wine drinker would have surely twigged on some very questionable use of the English language on front and back labels, bottle shapes that were unfamiliar for the wine in question, print jobs that looked like the could have come from a garage and even mistakes in the spelling of the brands themselves. In 2011 the New York Times reported on perhaps the most fanciful Chinese wine fake of all time: bottles of so-called Romanée-Conti (the name of one of Burgundy’s elite domains) sporting the logo of Chateau Lafite (the Premier Cru Classé in Pauillac) but purporting to come from the southern French city of Montpellier. Anyone fooled by this probably deserved to be! In early November 2012 police in Wenzhou Province China seized nearly 10,000 bottles of Chateaux Lafite Rothschild, which proved to be counterfeit. In fact there is so much fake Lafite in China these days that in 2013 around 30 million

商道

bottles were selling per year of so-called Chateau Lafite, whose total production is around 200,000 bottles and whose China allocation was 50,000 bottles maximum . Today the fakes have become harder to pick, and they’re not just restricted to the more expensive labels. Any wine brand in China that has developed a market presence is subject to fake, regardless of whether cheap or expensive. I have seen Government-owned promotional display centres largely filled with inexpensive wines, the overwhelming majority of which were either fake or impressions of other brands intended to mislead consumers into thinking they were buying something else. A few months ago I was sitting in one of the most prestigious Chinese restaurants in Beijing at a table in a private room with the guy who owned the hotel in which it was located. I knew he liked Penfolds Bin 407, but there was no vintage against the wine’s listing, so I asked the wine waiter for some help. Eventually I ended up in the cellar, holding two bottles of what looked very like Penfolds Bin 407 but which for some reason left me unconvinced. However, being unable to place a finger on the reason for my doubt, both were duly opened. The wines inside were indeed Australian, but they were certainly not Penfolds. Oaky riverland cabernet, more like. Don’t say you weren’t warned!

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 81

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消费者

从那时起，中国的葡萄酿酒业就迎来了爆炸性增长。今天的中国已然是全球第五大葡萄酒生产国，但其国内产量仍未能跟上国内消费的增长。

Huadong Chateau vineyards, Qingdao, China 中国青岛华东葡萄园酒庄

the French got greedy. Most red wine from Bordeaux is bought via an ‘en primeur’ system in which customers pay upfront for wine that has yet to be bottled. Claiming another in a series of ‘vintages of a lifetime’ for the 2010 wines, the market began to rile at a price increase of around 40%. The market instantly lost its fizz and prices began to plummet. Prices fell by 15% in 2011 and another 12% the year following. In late 2012 China’s central government began to implement the range of austerity measures that have quelled excessive consumption. As a result, the Chinese habit of gifting wine has declined dramatically and the level of entertainment in restaurants has reduced. The top end of the wine market is today significantly smaller than it was before this policy, but after a period of decline, the Chinese wine market is today larger than it was when the policy was first announced. The growth has been in more ‘affordable’ wines, even though for a range of reasons Chinese people pay significantly more per bottle of inexpensive wine (say 100RMB) than consumers in other large wine drinking 82 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

countries. This shows the market is real and here to stay. If Chinese people are drinking wine, they have now had to buy it themselves. Young Chinese people view wine as a passport to a new lifestyle, and one they are defining themselves. Well travelled, they are often educated in Western countries, watch Western movies, aspire to Western brands and spend most of their time online in some way or other. They see wine and wine knowledge as an integral part of their becoming citizens of the world. And they are learning fast!

CHINA’S OWN WINE INDUSTRY

With anticipated growth between 2011 and 2018 of 40-60%, China’s wine market is set to change the shape of the global wine industry. It is on a path to become the world’s largest producer of wine (it’s currently number five) yet it could still become the largest export market for most quality wine producing countries. While a significant proportion are still table grapes, China owns more than 10% of the world’s vineyards, second only to Spain. Yet very little Chinese wine is exported, and most 商道

在混乱中现雏形的市场在中国葡萄酒市场初现雏形期间，法国人很快领悟到中国文化当中面子的重要性，并推动了中国葡萄酒市场的成形。法国人所传达的信息简单明了、久经考验且行之有效：如果中国人想用最好、最有名的葡萄酒来招待宾客，那么来自波尔多——法国最大、最重要的优质葡萄酒产地——的红葡萄酒将是他们的上选；这一点毋庸置疑！结果呢？波尔多葡萄酒价格水涨船高，尤其是来自于一级酒庄的葡萄酒（以拉菲酒庄为甚）。这或者是因为与邻居摩登·罗氏察德酒庄相比，拉菲在中国更为朗朗上口，但拉菲最终成为了被众多品牌搞得晕头转向的近14亿中国人梦寐以求的品牌，甚至还在其年份为2008年的葡萄酒瓶身上印上了中国的“八”字。在2008年香港财政司司长唐英年取消葡萄酒关税之前，香港就已然是一个蒸蒸日上的葡萄酒市场。这项政策一夜之间令香港成为了葡萄酒行业的乐土。在低价以及正品保证的诱惑下，该政策也驱使更多的中国游客涌入香港购买葡萄酒。这怎么会有什么问题呢？！ 2010年11月，奔富酒庄推出了其有史以来最昂贵的葡萄酒，即2008年的Bin 620赤霞珠-西拉干红葡萄酒，定价每瓶1,000澳元，是葛兰许干红葡萄酒的1.5倍。奔富酒庄并没有在悉尼、墨尔本、伦敦乃至纽约推出此酒，而是选择在上海和香港先后发布此酒。曾一位中国绅士上前询问奔富酒庄的首席执行官，愿意出两倍的价格全部买下此酒的所有产品。这怎么会有什么问题呢？！中国经济首次出现放缓迹象，然后法国人也开始变得贪婪起来。来自波尔多的绝大部分葡萄酒都是通过一个“期酒”系统来销售的，顾客需要为尚未装瓶的葡萄酒预付酒款。在2010 年份的葡萄酒又被冠以“毕生难逢年份”的盛名之后，市场开始对40%左右的价格涨幅显露出不满情绪；随着市场的泄气，价格随即应声而落。2011年，葡萄酒价格下滑了15%，次年又再次下跌了12%。 2012年末，中国中央政府开始实施一系列的财政紧缩措施，以此来打击铺张浪费和昂贵消费。在此背景下，中国人赠送葡萄酒的旧习开始急剧退烧，各餐厅的消费水平也一落千丈。此项政策出台之后，高端葡萄酒市场显著萎缩，只有“经济型”葡萄酒依然保持增长势头—— 虽然出于这样或那样的原因，中国人在购买廉价葡萄酒（假设在100元人民币左右）之时要比其它主要葡萄酒消费国的消费者多掏很多钱。

CONSUMER

消费者

US$8 billion

With combined revenues around US$8 billion, three companies Changyu, Dynasty and Great Wall, control 40% of the China market. 合计收入约达到80亿美元的张裕、王朝和长城三家公司控制着40%左右的中国市场。

of it is sold for low prices. However over the last decade there has been a real move within China to pursue higher quality. With combined revnues around US$8 billion, three companies – Changyu, Dynasty and Great Wall – control around 40% of the China market, 80% of which is labeled as Chinese wine. There is a reality, however, that a significant amount of this ‘Chinese’ wine – perhaps as much as 30% – might either contain overseas wine or else be 100% from another country. The principal Chinese wine regions are Shandong, Hebei, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Yunnan. Shandong has the longest history and is home to Chateau Lafite’s joint venture with Citic Group. Hebei is located close to its customers in Beijing and Tianjin, while further west, Ningxia is the most ambitious of all regions. Staking much of its future on the wine industry, Ningxia’s government has thrown its full support behind its nascent wine industry, with a plan to develop a ‘million mu’ (about 67,000 hectares) of vineyards by 2020, which would make its plantings larger than those of New Zealand. Three local producers—Silver Heights, Helan Qing Que and Helan Mountain—have made excellent wines. Xinjiang is found in the country’s northwest. It’s China’s largest grape producer and home to some large wineries as well as the exciting Tiansai project whose wines are made by the Australian Lilian Carter. Significantly more southerly than the other main regions, Yunnan makes elegant, lighter wines from its moderate climate. In my view, the best Chinese wines of the future are most likely to come from Xinjiang, Shandong and Ningxia. It’s a just matter of time before their wines will be found in your local store.

由此可见，中国确有市场。如果中国人想喝葡萄酒的话，那么现在他们必须要自掏腰包了。年轻的中国消费者将葡萄酒视为迈向全新生活方式的一本护照，以及定义自我的手段之一。这些消费者通常见多识广，在西方国家受过教育，喜爱西部片，热衷西方品牌，并且大部分的时间都在网络上度过。他们将葡萄酒以及葡萄酒知识视为其成为世界公民过程中所不可或缺的一部分，并且他们学得很快！

80%被标为中国产葡萄酒。但是，有相当一部分这些所谓“中国产”葡萄酒——比例可能高达30%——要么混有海外产葡萄酒，要么就是 100%源自其它国家。主要的中国葡萄酒产区有山东、河北、宁夏、新疆和云南。山东的酿酒历史最为悠久，同时亦是拉菲酒庄与中信集团合资公司的所在地。河北紧邻北京和天津的顾客，而最西边的宁夏是所有葡萄酒产区当中最为野心勃勃的一个。将宝押在葡萄酒上的宁夏政府全力扶持其新生中国自身的葡萄酿酒工业的葡萄酿酒工业，并计划到2020年前种植出预计2011-2018年期间，中国的葡萄酒市场将 “百万亩”（大约67,000公顷）的葡萄园；此举迎来40-60%的增长，并将改变全球葡萄酿酒工将令宁夏的葡萄种植面积一举超过新西兰。三业的格局。中国已迈上了成为全球最大葡萄酒家当地酿酒公司——银色高地酒庄、贺兰晴雪生产国的阳关大道（目前排在第五位），而且酒庄、贺兰山酒庄——亦推出了一系列的优质依然有望成为绝大部分优质葡萄酒出产国的头葡萄酒。号出口市场。位于中国西北部的新疆是中国最大的葡萄产虽然鲜食葡萄依然在中国占据较大的比重，区，也是一些大型酿酒公司和天塞酒庄（由来但中国已经拥有全球葡萄园的10%以上，仅次于自澳大利亚的李丽安（Lilian Carter）担纲首席西班牙。不过，鲜有中国产的葡萄酒出口海外，酿酒师）的所在地。得益于温润的气候，有并且绝大部分都是在国内低价销售。尽管如此，“彩云之南”美称的云南则主要出产口感清新淡在过去的十年里，中国一直在朝着生产更优质雅的葡萄酒。葡萄酒的方向努力。依我之见，未来中国最好的葡萄酒很有可能合计收入约达到80亿美元的张裕、王朝和长来自于新疆、山东和宁夏；来自这些产区的葡城三家公司控制着40%左右的中国市场，其中萄酒迟早会出现您当地商店的货架之上。

假酒在中国，品牌为王，不过您所购买的“王者”很可能是一个化了装的“小卒”。在中国市场上，葡萄酒假货已经横行了数十年之久，如今更是越来越难以鉴定。虽然假酒的首次尝试无法糊弄一位西方葡萄酒爱好者，但这些假酒无疑足以骗倒十到十五年之前的中国买家。西方的葡萄酒爱好者肯定会留意到酒瓶前后标签上的一些很不靠谱的英语，与瓶内葡萄酒不相吻合的酒瓶形状，看上去像是来自于小作坊的印刷质量，甚至是品牌名称本身的拼写错误。 2011年，《纽约时报》报道了一个有史以来最不可思议的中国假酒：使用罗曼尼·康帝（勃艮第产区地位至高无上的酒庄之一）的瓶子，印着拉菲酒庄（位于波亚克产区的一级酒庄）的Logo，但却声称来自于法国南部城市蒙彼利埃。被此假酒所骗的人或许也是活该！ 2012年11月初，中国温州市警察局扣押了近一万瓶拉菲葡萄酒，最后被查出全是假酒。实际上，中国的假拉菲数不胜数，仅在 2013年就卖出了近3000万瓶各种年份的拉

商道

菲，而拉菲的实际总产量仅在20万瓶左右，其中售往中国的最多仅有5万瓶。如今，这些假酒已变得越来越难以甄别——不仅限于这些假酒所使用的更为昂贵的标签。在中国享有一定市场知名度的任何葡萄酒品牌，无论其价位高低，最终都会被假冒。我曾看到一些政府旗下的宣传展示中心大部分都摆满了廉价的葡萄酒，而其中绝大多数要么是假酒，要么采用与其它品牌相似的印刷来误导消费者，让消费者以为他们所买到的是正品。几个月之前，我来到北京最知名的中餐馆之一，在一个包厢内见到了该餐馆所在酒店的大老板。我知道他十分喜爱奔富酒庄的Bin 407，但酒单上却没有标注对应的年份，因此我开始求助于服务员。最后我来到了酒窖，拿起两瓶看上去极似奔富Bin 407、但出于某些原因无法让我信服的葡萄酒。不过，由于无法指出问题所在，两瓶酒最终都被打开。瓶内所装的葡萄酒实际上产自澳大利亚，但绝非来自于奔富酒庄。好吧，大抵是产自河地（Riverland）的解白衲。别说我没有提醒过你！

H I G H E R V I EW B USINESS | 8 3

‘ T H E JETSET T ER’ 更有黃色及黃褐色以供選擇米兰 * 纽约 * 香港 * 悉尼 * 迪拜 * 上海 * 杜塞尔多夫东京 * 约翰内斯堡 * 布宜诺斯艾利斯 FLORSHEIM.COM.AU

HIGHER LIFE 气派生活

LIFESTYLE, SHOPPING, FASHION, LUXURY 时尚生活、奢华购物、品味时尚、奢侈单品

动力无限 DRIVING FORCE 卡地亚推出全新男士腕表系列DRIVE DE CARTIER，巧妙地将男子气概演绎得淋漓尽致。此系列创作灵感来自于经典轿车，表盘饰以汽车散热器护栅图案雕纹，表镜凸圆隆起，6时位置设有计时盘，上链表冠呈螺栓造型。售价：8,750澳元。

Cartier has announced a completely new line of men’s watches, which is equal in masculinity as it is effortless style. The Drive de Cartier collection is inspired by the motor car with the patterning of the guilloché dial resembling the design of a radiator grill and the winding crown shaped like a bolt. From $8,750, au.cartier.com

商道

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINESS | 8 5

奢侈品天地

MOST WANTED

Everything luxury — from one-off designer pieces to lavish cars 从设计名家的限量版精品到新款豪华车。

TRAVEL MATE

时尚地旅行可不简单。旅途中很能避免起皱的衣服和那双无神的眼睛，可是一个有型的旅行包能为您的整体造型加分。BALENCIAGA的小牛皮行李袋是您的不二之选。售价：2,530澳元。 Travelling in style can be tough. There’s no way to avoid wrinkled clothing or tired eyes. But there is one thing you can ensure having, a trendy carry on. Balenciaga’s smooth calfskin travel bag will lift your travel-attire game tenfold. $2,530, balenciaga.com/au

FINE LINE

万宝龙全新推出以ROUGE&NOIR（红与黑）为主题的书写工具系列以庆祝其110年周年纪念。灵感源自万宝龙首个ROGUE & NOIR红与黑传承钢笔系列，全新系列以特别的尺寸示人，比目前的形狀更苗條、更修长，以及带有 1920年代盛行的蛇形笔夹。售价：610澳元起。 Montblanc celebrates its 110th anniversary by paying tribute

KEEPING WITH TRADITION

to its heritage with the ‘Rogue & Noir’ theme. Inspired by the brand’s first fountain pens, Heritage Rogue & Noir collection

宝玑的TRADITION传世系列7027于2005年面世。2016年迎来新型号7097，承袭本系列作品以宝玑大师于1796年所推出第一款“SUBSCRIPTION WATCHES”为设计灵感来源。售价：43,100澳元。

comes with a new unique size - slimmer and longer than current shapes. It also features a snake slip, which was very popular in the 1920s. From $610, montblanc.com

Breguet launched it’s Tradition collection back in 2005 with the 7027. In 2016, it welcomes a new model, the 7097. Like the rest of the collection, the 7097 is inspired by the one-hand ‘subscription watches’ that Abraham-Louis Breguet first produced back in 1796. $43,100, breguet.com

LINK UP

男士穿着西装时若能巧用小配饰，便能给人耳目一新的感觉，其中袖扣更是品味穿衣中不可或缺的单品。FREYWILLE维也纳歌剧院18CT 黄金及钻石系列，散发独特奢华的男士魅力。售价：5,785澳元。 There are very few accessories that men have to set them apart from other men in business suits, which makes cufflinks such a statement piece when styling. Freywille’s unique collection of 18ct gold cufflinks exude style and class. Vienna Opera18kt Gold & Diamonds Collection, design Rallye, $5,785 freywille.com

8 6 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

商道

STEP AHEAD

Q&A 问答

于意大利以真鳄鱼皮打造的富乐绅 CANBERRA皮鞋让您轻松驾驭办公室与所有正式场合。售价：1,990.95澳元。

我们与精工品牌大使兼男单网球世界冠军畅谈有关旅游、腕表以及他总能腾出十分钟时间来做的事情。

Made in Italy and handcrafted in genuine

We chat to Novak Djokovic, Seiko ambassador and currently ranked world No.1 in men’s single tennis, about travelling, watches and what he can always spare ten minutes for...

crocodile, Florsheim’s Canberra style shoe is a classic make that will transcend from the boardroom to a black-tie event, effortlessly. $1,990.95, florsheim.com.au

THREE’S A CHARM 宝马全新3系330E集奢华、性能与实用性于一体。全新加入3系家族的新成员 330E采用插电式混合动力系统，加上E DRIVE科技的应用，使之在保持出色的性能表现下实现零排放的纯电动驾驶。建议售价：71,900澳元。 Pleasure meets performance and practicality with the BMW’s 330e. Adding to the already existing 3 series model range, the 330e is a plug-in hybrid variant that is powered by a BMW eDrive electric motor, which promises enthralling performance while allowing emission-free driving. You don’t have to sacrifice power for the greater good with BMW. MRLP $71,900, bmw.com.au

MAKES SCENTS

在DUNHILL经典的ICON男性淡香精的基础上研制出新款香水ICON ABSOLUTE。香调是辛香木质味，加入中东风味的香料，充满男子气概。100毫升售价：125澳元。 A new twist on an old classic, Dunhill introduces Icon Absolute, an addition to it’s Icon fragrance. Taking the pepperiness of their original scent, Icon Absolute adds a host of Middle Eastern notes, most prominently that of Oud – the resin of an Agar tree. The scent is warm and woody, and encapsulates

出门必备的东西？ WHAT DO YOU NEVER LEAVE HOME WITHOUT? 我的答案会让您惊讶。我出门不能没有一瓶装有柠檬、姜和薄荷叶的水。做运动的时候我会流失大量水分，所以必须经常补水。 You will be surprised, but I never leave home without a bottle of water with lemon, ginger and peppermint leaves in it. I’m always hydrating as I lose lots of water throughout my workouts. 比赛前对付时差的最佳方法？WHAT’S THE BEST APPROACH YOU HAVE FOUND TO BEATING JET LAG BEFORE COMPETING? 登机后我便立刻把手表调到目的地的时间。根据目的地的时间来决定我在什么时候睡觉并且睡长久。我需要几天时间来让自己调整过来，但是积极地活动有很大的帮助。 The moment I get on the plane, I set my watch to the time zone I’m going to. According to that, I chose when and how long to sleep. I need a few days to adjust, but being active helps a lot. 对您而言，现在不可或缺的是哪款表？ WHAT IS YOUR MUST-HAVE WATCH AT THE MOMENT? 我非常偏爱精工为我们之间的合作关系而定制的限量版腕表，也就是诺瓦克·德约科维奇限量款SEIKO ASTRON GPS卫星定位太阳电能腕表。 I am biased because I am quite in love with the limited edition collection of watches that Seiko made inspired by our partnership. It is Novak Djokovic Seiko Astron GPS Solar Chronograph. 你的座右铭？ WHAT’S YOUR MOTTO? 笑着、爱着活出每一天。 Laugh as long as you breathe, love as long as you live.

masculinity. $125 (100ml), dunhill.com

商道

H I G H E R V I EW B USINE SS | 87

STYLE 时尚单品 The latest in fashion from the world’s biggest designer brands 来自一些世界最大的设计师品牌最新的时尚单品。

Berluti, $2,970, berluti.com/en

Club Monaco, $1,495, clubmonaco.com AMI, $170, amiparis.fr/en

MIX IT UP The key to a trans-seasonal wardrobe is layering

John Smedley, $220, johnsmedley.com

混叠穿衣法 Bottega Veneta, $805, bottegaveneta.com/au

Tom Ford, $4,205, tomford.com

Polo Ralph Lauren, $POA, ralphlauren.com.au

Thom Browne, $1,820, thombrowne.com Acne Studios, $1,317, acnestudios.com Kingsman, $380, The Elder Statesman, $720, mrporter.com elder-statesman.com

8 8 | HIGHER VIEW BUSIN E S S

商道

WINE 佳酿

“Pull quote here please...”

A tour of some of Australia’s finest wine regions 澳大利亚一些最好的葡萄酒产区之旅。

奔富（Penfolds）是澳大利亚最受欢迎的红酒品牌之一，他们家的酒王葛兰许（Grange）系列最为值得好好品尝一番。奔富玛吉尔庄园—葛兰许被收藏在隐秘的柜子里 Penfolds Magill Estate's Cellar Door where Granges were kept in a secret cupboard

马斯·舒伯特的个人珍藏葛兰许系列 Max Schubert's personal Grange Collection

带有酿酒师亲笔签名的 1951年奔富葛兰许 Signed 1951 bottle of Penfolds Grange

奔富在澳大利亚随处可见，在许多的酒行、免税店或中国餐馆的酒单上均能找到它的身影。它是澳大利亚最著名也是最大的葡萄酒庄，酿造出集果香、橡木与单宁于一体的佳酿。奔富酿造葡萄酒170多年以来一直以三种截然不同的风格来体现奔富的酿酒哲学，分别是单一葡萄园或单一园区、单一地区或次区域，还有多地区或多品种混合。可持续发展、质量的一致性以及水果采购都是奔富葡萄栽培的重要元素。相当商业化以及普遍的奔富也有出产澳大利亚最高端奢华的葡萄酒——珍藏系列葛兰许。大名鼎鼎的奔富葛兰许1971荣膺全球最杰出 1970年代酒款的美誉，成功击败众多法国顶级酒庄。这只是成功的一部分而已。葛兰许问世初期有点小挫折。奔富首位酿酒 90 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

师马斯·舒伯特（Max Schubert）所酿制的这款酒受到一些酒评家的质疑和否定，奔富董事会因而勒令他停止生产此酒。不过，舒伯特并没有就此放弃，于1957年至1959年期间在奔富董事会不知情的情况下继续秘密酿造葛兰许。终于，葛兰许证明了澳大利亚葡萄酒的窖藏潜质。坊间出现了关于舒伯特酿造独特葛兰许米塔吉的传闻，同样的董事会成员因此安排第二次品鉴会，这次经过装瓶熟化的19451与 1955年份酒得到了品鉴者的热情赞许。奔富董事会命令重启葛兰许的生产，刚好赶上出产 1960年份葡萄酒。葛兰许在1960年代获得巨大成功，被誉为澳大利亚最杰出的葡萄酒。葛兰许标志着“葡萄酒王国”的开始，承载着澳大利亚葡萄酒消费者们的想象力。商道

PENFOLDS BY NUMBERS y

170

Years of winemaking 酿造葡萄酒170年

The inaugural James Halliday Wine Companion Awards name Penfolds ‘The Winery of the Year’. As does Wine and Spirit Magazine, for the 23rd time. Which is more than any other winery in the world. 奔富酒庄在首届澳大利亚葡萄酒指南大奖上被詹姆士· 韩礼德评为“年度酒庄”，并且23次获得《葡萄酒与烈酒》杂志“年度酒庄”的殊荣，次数比世界上任何一个酒庄多。

Penfolds chief winemaker Peter Gago receives the Institute of Masters of Wine’s ‘Winemaker of Winemakers’ award. And Penfolds release 12 hand-made Ampoules containing the celebrated Block 42 Cabernet Sauvignon, priced at $168,000 AUD each. 奔富酒庄首席酿酒师彼得·加戈荣获葡萄酒大师协会授予其酿酒师最高荣誉“最佳酿酒师奖章”。奔富因此出产限量12瓶的稀有葡萄酒，装在人工吹制的独特玻璃瓶“安瓿”内，其中包含一瓶每瓶售价 168,000澳元，极其稀珍的42区赤霞珠红葡萄酒。

Grange Hermitage remains Australia’s most renowned and awarded wine, 36 years after it was first released. And although he is now retired, its creator, Max Schubert is named as Decanter Magazine’s ‘Man of the Year’. 36年前面世的奔富Grange Hermitage葛兰许葡萄酒仍然是澳大利亚最负盛名并且获奖最多的酒款。其始创人马克斯·舒伯特虽然现已退休，仍被权威葡萄酒杂志Decanter选封为“年度人物”。

Penfolds is one of Australia’s most-loved wine makers. But it’s their Grange that is worth taking a sip of...

塔拉沃拉庄园 TarraWarra

It’s not hard to come across Penfolds in Australia. Most bottle shops, duty-free stores or Chinese restaurant wine lists, for that matter, are likely to feature. It’s the country’s foremost maker of red wines, all stamped with a house style built on a trio of fruit, oak and tannins. For over 170 years, three distinct styles have underpinned the Penfolds winemaking philosophy: single vineyard or single block, single region or sub-region, and multi-region or multi-varietal blending. Sustainability, consistency in quality and fruit sourcing are the key elements of Penfolds viticulture. As commercial and common as Penfolds is, it also happens to produce some of the finest bottles of wine to ever come out of Australia with their exclusive Grange collection. So highly regarded the collection is, Penfolds 1971 Grange was named the world’s greatest wine of the 1970s, beating some of France’s finest wine estates. But it wasn’t all success for Grange. 商道

In fact, the beginnings of Grange saw much failure. In 1957, Max Schubert’s, Penfolds first Chief Winemaker, quest to make a great wine was universally disliked by wine identities and personal friends of the board. While Schubert failed to impress, he secretly continued with the winemaking, without the knowledge of the Penfolds board, from 1957 to 1959. It wasn’t until news started filtering out about Schubert’s unique Grange Hermitage that a second tasting with the same board members was organised of the 1951 and 1955 vintages, both with bottle age development, were greeted with enthusiasm. The Penfolds board ordered production of Grange to restart, just in time for the 1960 vintage. During the 1960s Grange firmed its position as Australia’s most distinguished wine. The rest is history. It marked the beginning of a ‘dynasty of wines’ that would capture the imagination of the Australian wine consumer. H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 91

万盛伟业集团，专注澳大利亚地产市场，为您的投资开拓新的视野 Vision Property Investment is breaking down barriers and opening up new avenues of potential. 万盛伟业地产集团以房地产销售为核心顾问业务；借助自身丰富资源系统和信息平台，依靠强大的专业精英团队，服务于房地产开发和销售的各个环节。万盛伟业在澳洲房地产策划、顾问、销售等环节，一直保持着一流的竞争和技术优势，在房地产投资综合型服务方面始终处于领跑地位。多年来我们与澳洲顶级开发商建立了良好的合作关系。同时，近期代理了超过1200套高质量的独家楼盘。大量优质楼盘供您选择，涵盖了悉尼众多热门区域，例如：Epping, Botany, Miranda, North Ryde, Zetland , New Town等等。我们的专业销售顾问会通过与您的前期沟通，了解

您的具体需求。精准把握现阶段澳洲房地产市场的发展趋势，根据变化的市场形势；结合不同区域房产的特点和优势；及投资分析的专业知识，为您提供更有潜力和安全的投资建议。保证您投资回报的最大化。同时，会为您推荐在行业中具有高度资质、丰富经验和良好信誉的贷款经理和律师。保障您在房产交易的每一环节都享受到最专业的服务。在房产交割以后万盛伟业的出租管理团队会用最专业的态度找到优质的租客，管理房产的租金收入、进行日常维护和缴纳费用等一切事宜。真正做到为海内外客户提供专业、便捷和高质量的一站式一条龙服务，为您在澳洲的投资保驾护航，免除一切后顾之忧。

万盛伟业集团的专业团队会为您提供以下服务： • 市场调查与市场研究 Marking research & analysis • 房地产前期发展和策划 Project marking

• 房地产销售代理与销售顾问 Property sales & consultation • 房产租赁管理 Property Management

万盛伟业携手SH国际共献年度超值性价比项目：Grand Auburn

在万众

万盛伟业联手丰富建筑经验本地开发商Gondon，在万众瞩目的知名学区Epping奉献花园住宅：Gondon Elyse

Since its inception, VPI has grown in leaps and bounds and is now thrilled about using that momentum to expose new investment opportunities on a global scale. Recently, VPI released more than 1,200 exclusive projects covering a range of luxury apartments in Sydney’s most prestigious suburbs such as Botany, Epping, Zetland, and Newtown. Our purpose is to provide secure investments that have the most potential for growth thus maximising the return for our clients. VPI’s expertise in project marketing and consultancy services is reinforced through a dynamic and innovative approach to advancements within the industry but also the capability to adapt to changes in the market environment. This holistic synergy lays the foundation for us to deliver outstanding results in property development and sales. Here, at VPI, we recognise that each investor is unique and our skilled sales executives combine the client’s requirements with our own market research on the

Sydney real estate sector to pinpoint the strengths and weaknesses of each area and provide our clients with the best available options. Over the years VPI has cultivated strong relationships with top-tier developers such as Frasers, Meriton & Mirvac who have a history of delivering premium residences in highly sought-after areas. Part of what makes VPI successful is our commitment to ensuring our clients receive service beyond comparison throughout each step of the real estate investment process, firstly from ourselves and secondly from our network of expert business partners in areas such as financial planning & legal advice. After settlement, the experienced property management team will find steady & quality tenants, optimise rental income and resolve any issues regarding management. This comprehensive service gives our investors the freedom and peace of mind to enjoy the rewards of their investment.

欢迎致电 02 9282 9000 、或莅临我们在悉尼的办公室咨询更多信息。 Please call us on 02 9282 900 or visit our office in Parramatta for more information Level3, 24 Hunter Street, Parramatta NSW 2150 Email: enquiry@vpigroup.com.au

www.vpigroup.com.au

RESTAURANTS 餐厅 Fine dining in Sydney, Melbourne, Shanghai and Beijing 悉尼、墨尔本、上海及北京的高端餐厅。

SYDNEY 悉尼

FIREDOOR

MELBOURNE 墨尔本 TIM HO WAN 墨尔本迎来首家添好运点心专门店。作为最便宜的米其林餐厅，这家国际连加盟点心专门店在亚洲和澳大利亚有超过20家分店。2015年率先进驻悉尼，添好运最近已于墨尔本唐人街开张。不过添好运不接受订位，这代表着要做好心理准备大排长龙了。

Melbourne welcomes it’s first Tim Ho Wan. Billed as the cheapest Michelin-starred restaurant in the world, the international yum cha franchise has more than 20 stores across Asia and Australia. Landing its first venue Down Under in Sydney in 2015, Tim Ho Wan has now opened in Melbourne, at the eastern edge of Chinatown. Unfortunately, they don’t take bookings, which means that, expectedly, there are lengthy queues. timhowan.com.au

世界上最美味的牛排已登陆悉尼。全场焦点？非Jack’s Creek的西冷牛排莫属。牛排来自新南威尔士州北部的Willow Tree，然后被运到昆士兰东南部的Warwick进行包装等后续工序。此牛排于去年位于伦敦举行的首届“世界牛排挑战”上荣获“全球最佳牛排”的称号，成功从其他70种参选牛排中脱颖而出。悉尼的Firedoor餐厅暂时是澳大利亚唯一一家餐厅供应这款牛排。牛排于去年9月份已到达Firedoor餐厅，可是大厨Lennox Hastie正对牛排进行湿式熟成（已超过176天的时间），等待最佳食用时机。 The world’s best steak has landed in Sydney. The beef under the spotlight? Jack’s Creek striploin, cut from beasts reared in Willow Tree in northern New South Wales, and finished in Warwick in Queensland’s south-east. The steak was voted the best of 70 entries from around the world in the inaugural World Steak Challenge held in London last year, and Sydney’s Firedoor is currently the only restaurant in the country serving it. Firedoor has been wet-ageing the steak since last September. firedoor.com.au 94 | H IGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

商道

SHANGHAI 上海

Asia’s 50 Best Restaurants 2016 list is in. Here are the restaurants from China that made the cut... 2016年亚洲50佳餐厅新鲜出炉！下面我们为您介绍几家入选的中国餐厅……

ULTRAVIOLET BY PAUL PAIRET 由法国名厨PaulPairet创办的 Ultraviolet by Paul Pairet餐厅被誉为全球最前卫的感官餐厅。位于上海一个隐秘的位置，每晚只接待十位客人。美食结合多种高科技—— 影片、音效、灯光、气味，为宾客提供前所未有的用餐体验。 The brainchild of French chef, Paul Pairet, Ultraviolet by Paul Pairet is considered by many to be the most avantgarde restaurant experience in the world. Just 10 guests per night experience the ultimate in immersive dining in a secret location in Shanghai. The high-tech gastronomic production utilises elements including video, audio, bespoke lighting, piped-in scents and, of course, good old food and drink to stimulate every sense. uvbypp.cc

FU HE HUI

On the pass: Head chef Greg Robinson with chef-patron Paul Pairet Stand out dish: Tomato Mozza And Again

福和慧是入选“亚洲50佳餐厅”的唯一一家素菜馆，仅供应赏味套餐。在这儿用餐就像是一场中国各种菌菇的发现之旅，其中一些品种相当罕见。即使是无肉不欢的人也会喜欢这儿的食物。福和慧的室内设计运用大量云石和木家具，配合暖色系，并且由布艺、石材、木材三元素贯穿始终，打造一种悠远静谧的禅意韵味。餐厅能容纳90人，并且设有11个包间、两个宽敞的贵宾室，以及分布在三层楼的公共用餐空间。

MR & MRS BUND Mr & Mrs Bund 提供经由 Pairet 重新演绎的法国招牌菜式，为您精心炮制逾200款既传统又新颖的菜式，让您在这个轻松惬意的环境中享用。许多经典法国名菜都能在这里找到——法式蜗牛、红酒炖牛肉、法式苹果挞等。对的，同时你也能找到分量巨大的照烧排骨。餐厅拥有迷人的上海景观为整个美食体验锦上添花。 There’s something for everyone at Paul Pairet’s “Frenchbut-not-French” restaurant, which serves traditional bistro dishes with a modern twist in a relaxed setting. The juxtaposition of traditional and contemporary continues on the vast menu, which is home to more than 200 dishes. Escargots, boeuf bourguignon and tarte tatin are all present and correct, but you can also order enormous teriyakiglazed short ribs with an orange reduction. Stunning views of Shanghai are an added bonus. mmbund.com On the pass: Executive sous chef Julien Hermida with chef-owner Paul Pairet Standout dish: Lemon & Lemon Tart PP 商道

The only vegetarian restaurant to make it on the list. A meal at this tasting menuonly restaurant is a journey in understanding China’s diverse supply of fungi, some of which are extremely exotic. Even carnivores will love the food. Outfitted in a neutral palette of earth and grey tones with lots of stone, wood and fabrics, the 90-seat restaurant offers 11 private rooms, two gargantuan VIP rooms and a main dining hall on each of the three storeys.1037 Yuyuan Road, Changning District, Shanghai. On the pass: Tony Lu Standout dish: Lotus seed, honey pea, black fungus

H I G H E R V I EW B U SINE SS | 95

HOTELS 酒店

UP AND COMING

即将来袭

Private beaches, personal butlers and sky-high lounges – we’ve picked out some of the most luxurious hotels Australia and China have to offer 私家海滩、私人管家服务和高入云端的餐厅—— 我们精心细选澳中两地最能为您带来奢华体验的酒店。

PRIME TIME 悉尼铂瑞酒店是一家具有国际标准的五星级酒店，拥有富丽的大堂、楼顶泳池和酒吧、大量采用白色大理石以及连最高层的政要都能满足的总统套房。前身是悉尼水务局，现经过精心整修，赋予这座 1930年代的标志性建筑物新的生命。位于顶层的20米长恒温泳池、日光浴休息区和酒吧专属于酒店客人，是放松身心、远离城市喧嚣的理想选择。连锁酒店集团的总部位于上海，悉尼铂瑞酒店是该集团在悉尼的首家酒店，预计在澳大利亚将继续发展，开设更多酒店。每晚:290澳元起。

HILTON ZHUZHOU 株洲大汉希尔顿酒店

The Primus Hotel Sydney ticks all the 5-star boxes – soaring lobby space, rooftop pool and bar, lots of white marble and a Presidential Suite fit for the highest of dignitaries. Formerly The Sydney Water Board, the down-town 172 guest-room hotel immediately transports guests back to glamour of the 1930s with towering ceilings and rare eight-metre-high red, scagliola columns. Exclusive to hotel guests, the New-York-style rooftop complete with 20 metre lap pool, lounge seating and bar, provides an inner-city oasis away from the bustle of the streets below. Fresh from Shanghai, Primus Hotel Sydney marks the chains first venture Down Under, and from the look of things we won’t be surprised to see a lot more from them. From $290, primushotelsydney.com.

湖南省迎来首家希尔顿酒店，株洲大汉希尔顿酒店拥有368间客房，鸟瞰湘江美景。 Hunan Province welcomes it’s first Hilton branded hotel with the 368-room Hilton Zhuzhou. Suites boast views of the stunning Xiang River. hilton.com

SHERATON HARBIN XIANGFANG HOTEL 哈尔滨香坊永泰喜来登酒店 400间客房中有52间家庭客房，哈尔滨香坊永泰喜来登酒店欢迎一家大小到访。酒店的多家餐厅为您提供花样繁多的全球精选美食——璟泰公馆、宴标帜餐厅和63号餐厅及酒吧。 Family friendly, this all-new hotel inclues 52 family rooms among its 400 guestrooms. There’s a variety of dining options - Tai Mansion, FEAST and 63#. starwoodhotels.com

ZHUHAI MARRIOTT HOTEL 珠海新骏景万豪酒店拥有332间客房的珠海新骏景万豪酒店是万豪国际集团在珠海的首家酒店。毗邻有名的景山公园，拥有优越的地理位置。 This 332-room property is the first for Marriott International in the city. Standing adjacent to the renowned Jingshan Park, it’s prime location. marriott.com.au

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商道

OU R WOR L D IS YO U R P L AYG R O U N D Book your next stay at Pullman Melbourne on the Park from $189* +61 3 9419 2000 - pullmanmelbourneonthepark.com.au

SYDNEY HYDE PARK

*Per room, per night. Subject to availability. Conditions apply.

LATEST DEALS 近期主要的商业地产交易 CHINA-AUSTRALIA ANNOUNCED M&A VOLUME - FULL YEAR

中澳两国已宣布的并购总额－全年 Year Deal Value

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD

RECENT MAJOR COMMERCIAL PROPERTY DEALS

Information supplied by Dealogic No. of Deals

$6,919m $2,996m

$5,039m $80m

71 58 $8,935m 71 $8,959m 62 $10,615m 45 38 $8,712m 53 08

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD

Information supplied by Dealogic

$6,480m

52 46 55 54 40 30 42 07

$2,598m $8,668m $8,916m $10,293m $4,728m $8,375m $67m

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD

229间客房的五星级酒店。

ADDRESS 地址: 137-143 Herring Road, Macquarie Park PRICE 价格: $80m BUYER 买家: Overseas Holdings Ltd 5022sqm development site with potential for circa 280 apartments.

ADDRESS 地址: 23-31 Holdsworth and 24-32 Berry Road South, St Leonards PRICE 价格: $60m+ BUYER 买家: Zhengtang Investments Development site of 5,574sqm with the capacity to yield 246 apartments. 能兴建246套公寓的5,574平方米发展用地。

ADDRESS 地址: 771-775 Victoria Road, Ryde PRICE 价格: $18.6m BUYER 买家: Chiwayland 2,980sqm corner residential development site capable of accommodating 90 apartments. 位于拐角处的2,980平方米住宅开发用地，能建90套公寓。

AUSTRALIA CORPS’ ACQUISITION INTO CHINA - FULL YEAR 澳大利亚企业对中企进行收购的总额－全年

NEW SOUTH WALES 新南威尔士洲 ADDRESS 地址: Pullman Hotel Sydney Airport PRICE 价格: $84m BUYER 买家: Nanshan Group 229-room, five-star hotel.

有潜力兴建约280套公寓的5022平方米发展用地。

CHINA CORPS’ ACQUISITION INTO AUSTRALIA - FULL YEAR 中国企业对澳企进行收购的总额－全年

最新主要商业物业的交易

Information supplied by Dealogic

$439m $398m $267m $43m $322m $311m $337m $13m

19 12 16 08 05 08 11 01

VICTORIA 维多利亚洲 ADDRESS 地址: 1513-1517 Dandenong Road, Oakleigh PRICE 价格: $16.25m BUYER 买家: Private investor Landholding of 6,000sqm with close proximity to Chadstone Shopping Centre, Oakleigh Shopping Centre and Oakleigh Train Station. 邻近查德斯通购物中心、奥克利购物中心以及奥克利火车站的6,000平方米土地。

Information supplied by CBRE

PRICE 价格: $15.07m BUYER 买家: Private investor A permit-approved and extremely rare development site in one of Melbourne’s most desirable inner city residential pockets. 坐落位于墨尔本墨尔本最令人向往的内城住宅区，已获批发展并且极其难得的发展用地。

ADDRESS 地址: 54-60 St Kilda Road, St Kilda PRICE 价格: $13.7m BUYER 买家: Private investor A prominent inner city corner development site of 2,110sqm with triple street frontage. 位于内城区的一块著名的拐角发展用地，面积2,110平方米，三面临街。

QUEENSLAND 昆士兰洲 ADDRESS 地址: Thomas Drive site, Chevron Island PRICE 价格: $11.5m BUYER 买家: Private investor 1,888sqm site approved for a 19-level tower and five-floor office block. 已获批兴建19层大楼以及5层办公楼的 1,888平方米用地。

WESTERN AUSTRALIA 西澳 ADDRESS 地址: Forrest Centre complex, 291-221 St Georges Terrace, Perth PRICE 价格: undisclosed BUYER 买家: YT International Two freestanding A-Grade office buildings, a tavern, a carpark, gymnasium, pool, tennis court and cafe. 两个独立的甲级办公楼，带有酒馆、停车场、健身房、游泳池、网球场和咖啡厅。

TASMANIA 塔斯马尼亚 ADDRESS 地址: Van Diemen’s Land Co Dairy PRICE 价格: $280m BUYER 买家: Moon Lake 19,000ha dairy farm in Tasmania’s north west. 位于塔斯马尼亚西北部的19,000公顷奶牛场。

ADDRESS 地址: 41-49 Bank Street, South Melbourne

RECENT M&A DEALS BETWEEN AUSTRALIAN AND CHINESE INTERESTS

Information supplied by Dealogic

最新中澳两国的购并交易

Pending 待定 FEB

2016 JAN

MAR

5 JAN

7 JAN

21 JAN

27 JAN

29 JAN

US$31m

US$1m

US$2m

US$13m

US$1m

TARGET 目标公司: Hotels (Sheraton Mirage Port Douglas Resort)

TARGET 目标公司: NSX Ltd (5.26%)

TARGET 目标公司: Coppermoly Ltd (49.3107%)

TARGET 目标公司: Xinhui Xinlida Polythene Co Ltd - BPI China

ACQUIROR 收购公司: ACQUIROR 收购公司: ACQUIROR 收购公司: ACQUIROR 收购公司: SHKL Group Ltd Shanxi Xierun Amcor Ltd Fullshare Holdings Ltd INDUSTRY 所在行业: Investment Ltd INDUSTRY 所在行业: INDUSTRY 所在行业: Finance 金融 Chemicals 化学制品 INDUSTRY 所在行业: Dining & Lodging Mining 矿业餐饮及住宿

TARGET 目标公司: Kimberley Diamonds Ltd (12.4234%)

2016 APR 2 FEB

US$5m TARGET 目标公司: Syncordia Group Holdings Pty Ltd

3 FEB

4 MAR

US$27m

US$1m

TARGET 目标公司: TARGET 目标公司: Reed Industrial Minerals Chinalco Yunnan Copper Pty Ltd (18.1%) Resources Ltd (19.999%)

ACQUIROR 收购公司: ACQUIROR 收购公司: ACQUIROR 收购公司: ACQUIROR 收购公司: Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium JCHX Group Co Ltd Rongtai International Zhejiang Huitong Co Ltd Group Holdings Ltd Auction Ltd INDUSTRY 所在行业: INDUSTRY 所在行业: INDUSTRY 所在行业: Mining 矿业 INDUSTRY 所在行业: Mining 矿业 Technology 科技 Construction/Building 建筑

INFORMATION SUPPLIED BY

98 | HIGH ER VIEW BUSIN E S S

Completed 已成交

商道

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Real Market Benefit Westpac is at the forefront of RMB internationalisation, to support growth in the China corridor for Australasian companies. We understand how important access to the Greater China market is for our customers. That’s why we’re at the forefront of RMB internationalisation. Together with being a market leader for AUD/CNY trading1, and with a NZD/CNY Market-Maker licence, a China Derivatives licence, and a strength in local market expertise, we’re supporting more customers doing business in China. We’re also sharing our insights through publications such as the Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Survey, the Westpac-BREE China Resources Quarterly and WIBIQ, to help our customers make informed decisions about the future of their business. To discover how Westpac can provide your business with greater trade and financial markets access in China, contact your Relationship Manager.

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Participant in the Sydney Offshore RMB Hub

Best Local Trade Finance Bank in Australia4

Source: 1. China Foreign Exchange Trade System. www.chinamoney.com.cn as at 31 December 2015. 2. Euromoney FX Poll 2015. Measure of market share from 3,794 votes in 2015. 3. Listed in 2016 Global 100 Most Sustainable Corporations in the World, announced at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, January 2016. 4. GTR Asia Leaders in Trade, 2015 adjudicated by the GTR Editorial Board. Westpac Institutional Bank is a division of Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 AFSL 2337 14 (“Westpac”). The services and products described in this material are provided in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation and may not be available in all countries. New Zealand: In New Zealand Westpac Institutional Bank refers to the brand under which products and services are provided by either Westpac or Westpac New Zealand Limited (NZBN 942 903 432 4622) (“WNZL”). Any product or service made available by WNZL does not represent an offer from Westpac or any of its subsidiaries (other than WNZL). Neither Westpac nor its other subsidiaries guarantee or otherwise support the performance of WNZL in respect of any such product or service. WNZL is not an authorised deposit-taking institution for the purposes of Australian prudential standards. The current disclosure statements for the New Zealand branch of Westpac and WNZL can be obtained at the internet address www.westpac. co.nz. Both entities are registered banks in New Zealand under the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act 1989. U.K.: Westpac Banking Corporation is registered in England as a branch (branch number BR000106), and is authorised and regulated by the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority in Australia. WBC is authorised in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority. WBC is subject to regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority in the United Kingdom. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Westpac Europe Limited is a company registered in England (number 05660023) and is authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. China, Hong Kong, Singapore and India: Westpac Singapore Branch holds a wholesale banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Westpac Hong Kong Branch holds a banking licence and is subject to supervision by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Westpac Hong Kong branch also holds a licence issued by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) for Type 1 and Type 4 regulated activity. Westpac Shanghai and Beijing Branches hold banking licences and are subject to supervision by the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC). Westpac Mumbai Branch holds a banking licence from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and is subject to regulation and supervision by the RBI. U.S.: Westpac operates in the United States of America as a federally licenced branch, regulated by the Office of Comptroller of the Currency. Westpac is also registered with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a Swap Dealer, but is neither registered as, or affiliated with, a Futures Commission Merchant registered with the US CFTC. Westpac Capital Markets, LLC (‘WCM’), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Westpac, is a broker-dealer registered under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (‘the Exchange Act’) and member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA’). WBC748_HBV_A1